president's secre tr rv's fjle subject fil• production … · ot training pla.nea was...

r PRESIDENT'S SECRETRRV'S FJLE SubJect Fil• Office of Production M•n•gement1 D•f•n•• Progr•••• July 1941 Bo>< 146

•

DEFENSE PROGRESS

/_~ ..... i <'--· .. ... ~ ··-

BUREAU OF RESEARCH ANO STATISTICS • STACY MAY. CHI EF

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS BRANCH MORRIS A. COPEL.AN O, CHIEF

LESTER a KEL LO GG1

ASSI STANr CHIEF Q EOITOR

r111• ._,, • • • 10 11> 0 C0/1'1NntJJ. , ,.,_,. .. , j .. ofl•·• tl 1t1 fk <lof•••• o l r•o U• H • ' llU••• l•••htloa o/ Ho ••• h •l o /,. ••I-·•••' ro ••oo.l ltoriH.t ,..,._ , h , .... ,.,,.,, ., ''"' • • , ,.u, . .... ..

'

I

CONFI DENT I AL

NUM9ER 47 DEFENSE· PROGRESS .AJLY II, 1941

BRIEFS OF CONTEN TS

~

• llO~lllLI Pl'DDUCTION or DEFDIS! !)lUil'l(!};T a.d~cod to nu highs in June, but n1 bohi.Dd ooheduled output. 2

• ilHOLSSALE COKUIJDIT'i PRICES have ahown an uptun\ on • ride front during the peat two mont.he. To prevent diaaatroua 1.n.tU-tion end int.erferonco With M increaain& flow of defense =o.toriel, e cooprebena1ve coordlne.tod progro.m of pr·ice control 11 urgently needed now. 9

• .JUNE STP.IKES OF llAJOR IMPOR1/JICS to tho defense program and the :rosul ting man-days of idlenoas -oro lower than for any pro-v1.o\l.a month of 19.41. 12

• UNITED STArnl OVD<S!!hS EXPORTS oI dry-cargo tonnage durillg tbe aeeood qunrter of 1941 uo 011tiuted at 4.2 aUlion tone. TI:tio figure i e higher than tho first quar-t.e.r o r the you b.lt. 'bolow the level pre .. v~g in 1940. 14

• DE:PUIS& PROOJU!SS SDUES 15

OONFIOENTIAL • · •

NUM8ER 47 CONFIOENTIAl

PRODUCTI ON OF AIRPL ANES AND GUNS

r1c»UCTIO# 01 ,,.,,.,. • ou1r•••t /U#I, 114 1 ,., ........ ~ .. ... , .. . SJ1"Jflo • "''' hll h• r , • • • , . '" '"' pro4uotl•tt •f , .,.,. ••

•qulP8•"' _ ,. , t' 1aoh1d Jtt J111t 1, Jt4J , Th•• • • r • 1 lto • tt ,,. th • Jn d•••• o/ •onfltJy pt'oduct Jon ,. . , • • of •• /or t7p 1 1 of ••vlP••11t for t h• Jo 1t t ltt' ll •ont h 1 •11d b7 the • ••f' •I • l'tOdlHJfle tt fr oa

J u ly to D1c••b1r, J t 40, ' '"'" Jn t/'11 • oOO•P • t1)' lttl t o lloJ 1, In •Pit• of till • • • r to d Iner •••• • t h• •o"t h Jy r • t• • of d • l • tt • • pr od11ct l ott • t tit• •nd of }lltJ• w1r1 I•'''"' <:• n • lder • llly b • · hind t it• 1 ch1dvl 1d r a t 11 of aontltJy prodwotlon.

Th• l td•• of • • /or co.abe t • h ip ooa a tru o t/ on t' l • <: lt •d J6 /n

}11rt• • • cO•l'• r• d with th• Ind• • of JJ '" ••r •nd a a c haduled Jun• 1nd •• o f 4S . Th • P• •* r o te of JOO 1 a • <: hod1111 d to be r • 1clt1d In Octobor, Jt 4 J . At th• •" d o / June, JJ.4 p •rca"t o/ t h• r•qvl r • d • ort 011 • ddl t lon a l • • } or eoabat • h ip • tor tit• t • o 0 o c •1t1 ,...,.,, hid bean ooap/ a t 1 d ,

The o-b•t Yl hlcl• p roduction r a t • lnd1z Jnor 1 a 1od /roa 1S J n ll• r ro J 4 '" /11nar I t did n o r a tt a lft th• 1 o h1dul 1 d Jnd1z o f 4 9 , • • Inly b1c1u 11 prod11ct lon of par • onn a l c • rr/1r 1 • • • b •-

PRODUCTION RATE INDEXES J1111 - 0K A,pdl ... .... Pt ol

•9~0 1941 1941 .... -" ....

2

• PEA CENT

~ . :::::::;:: :.::·:: ): I·• '"

COMBAT SHIPS 19 30

COMBAT VEHICLES 8 18

AIRPL ANES 14 34

GUNS 16 37

JULY II, 1941

3 1 35

25 34

3 1 35

36 38

CONFIDENTIAL

100 0<1'421 ·'.:'.:::('.- ::;9

::;.::: :-;:,, {:·. ,· )« ''.)'· .•.•· •

10o l Aug '42

' ~·

<}7 ·::::;t ::f : ...... :J ··Yao··· Nov '41

·::~ ·.7,: ·~··

2

NUMBER 47 CONFIDENTIAL

ltlnd ••l'•c t • I J ••• . e t tit• e ad •I ]•• •

Tit• J•d•• •I t• l •I e oc•• •J • t • d l' r•d•ctlon •• • • • t•d t o I l'• rc • • I o/ cote J l' T•tl•ctJon

, ... ,, ...... . TA• ,,rotl uo t J•• r •t• Jatl•• /or Ar a ., .. ,.,,,. I• • • r ea clte d J I

c .. ,,ared • Jtlt '' la ••1. Jr , ,. A11 rJ l . ••d t it • • clto tluJ e 4 11••• o/ 100 Jn ,. ...... , . 11 41 . flle e c lto duJ ed J • d•• •I 10 l•r }•tt•

••• 110 1 r •ee lt etl b•o• • •• o/ Jo• • •II'•• o/ ao oltJa e l •tt • ettd e JJ type• o f •nl l· • lror e l t I •• • ( ••0 •11• tit • n•• 10 •• 1un). Accu•u· l a t ed product ion o f Ar •Y· 1111 • I••• at tlta ••ti o f /ua o •••unf e d to If porc M f o / tot •' 11roduc t l a n r equ l r••• n ta.

J une pr-0duction of military Airplanes r&ached a new high, de~pi ~ the s tri.l<e at the Ingl&

•ood Plant of the North AJllerican Aviation Company. The production rate index for June, "" shown in Chart 1 , reacheJ )4.7. The peat monthly production 1a 100 and 1a scheduled for Aut11•t 1942~

The June index represents a &i•able advance over the index of )1 . 4 in I.lay and the previous hi&)> of )) . 9 1n April. It dhould be notei:l, hoflevor, thnt OPll eehodulea called for a level of produotien in J\ll'le \Vhich would have made the index 36.6, or about 1 .9 peints hi&h•r thnn """ actually attained.

Production of heAvy bombers end 1-~ngine-pursui t shipe fell behind 01'11 s chedules . Production of lighter types of bombers was ahead of scbedulG . Total production of all types

! Pro<iuction rate nnd tot.l production inaexe• for airplanes in l!ay were presented 1n Iasut 46, pages <-). T"ne method of developoent of the indexes was preeented in I seue 46, pages 5-6. Production rate and t otal production indexes for all Army- type guns combined for April were pr esented 1n Issue 42,

pages 2- 4, and Issue 4), page 6 .

JULY II, 1941

I

ot training pla.nea was about on schedule.

Present OPll schedules cell for a July production rate index of 40/J, 5.) points (or one-sixth) hl&ber than actual production in June. llost of this increase is scheduled to occur in the production of l-engine-pursui t shlps and 2-engine bo::ibers .

CHART I - MONTHLY PRODUCTION

RATE - MILITARY AIRPLANES

.N;- OK. Jell. .... , . Afr, M•r Ju11• ""'' ..... ... .. .. .... '----1•••,-----'

CONFI OENTIAL

r

'.

NUMBER 47

The index of total production of military airplanes at the end of J une amounted to l0 . 7 percent o! production requir•ente. Thie 1e 1.5 points higher then it was a t the end of llay and more than three u .. e as large as it was at the end o! December 1940.

Chart 2 ebo•• the total product i on index as o! lae~ December end

CHART 2- TOTAL PRODUCTION AIRPLANES

INO(X

•00.------------, WE MUST/ PRODUCE

••

•ol------------

WE HAVE >OI----- PAOOUCEo----

\

Ot c '40 A0t.'41 MOJ'~I .liltl1 '.t1 OCI ~I

Cv.m111IOld lrom J'\11), 1940, lo

IHOEX •00

80

•o

•o

the pa s t three months , a.nd the s cheduled position next Oct.ober. The index is not expected to reach the "fii"ty-percen t critical point• until August l942.

Army Tne Guns . The monthly rat • of production of Army-type guna mors than doubled between the first six months of the program a.nd the

JULY 11, 194 1

CONFIDENTIAL 4

end ot llay 194l. llit.11111 tU nut six llOllthe, before the 8lld o! 194l, the rate attained in Ila~ lllould be trebled, and productiOll oboul.d be at the ecbeduled peak rat.e.

At the end o! *7, l4 percmt of Ule total production requir•snte ot Army-type guns bad bem !Wed. By October, acc:u.ulat.d production should 8110unt to 36 p.-:'C.,t of r._ quiremsnts.

Field Ar+111 !rt• Tb• index of the monthly rate o! production o! field artillery pieces in llay was 14-Tbis compares •itb the peak monthly rat e of 100 wbicb 1e echeduled to be reached in Fa1'tuary 1942. As can be seen in Chart J, 11&1 production represents aore than • tbree!'old in-

CHART 3 - MONTHLY PRODUCTION

RATE - FIELD ARTILLERY INDEX NU"fBERS

.Nly-OK. Jon--Mat. All(. Mo-, JU"-t P•~' MO.

·~·· . ,,0 .. ,,. t 940 ~---1941 19 42

CONFI OENTIAL 4

HUMBER 4 7

crff.1• o•er th• J\ll,y ... Dec•ber ••.r•C• or 4 and • •1 .ore than trice a1 h1P •• the raw or 6 at.ta.intd dur-1.nc th• first. quar\.V or 19Ll.

&t. the pr11•t. t.lse, th• FOduct.lon r &te index tor field artillery l• th• l o• 11t. ot an1 or th• mat.trial .product.ion r•t.• indtxtl pr1eM1ted. Howtvt:r, productiol'l 11 1cbtduled to be eupped. up markedl.7 by Aq;uat, and \.ht pte.k ret.e 8hould 'M r•cned 1D f1bNar7 l9J.:C. Tbt acl:Mduled iDCNaH in A~t will relU.l. t. !'to;; Lncl"Mall:l out.pit or th• new l°' mm bowit1.or al' tl'o nn producu1 f1.l'L1sb i.oolina up and com•tnce production.

CHART 4 -TOTAL PROOUCTION FIELO ARTILLERY

..

o._·,eo .. ... ...... ... 4f

~ ..... ,. .... .. JUl,.'f' II, 1941

-· ..

.., __ -·

..

..

COHP:IOENTIAL • • • O

tJ.on r ate tor field artillery 11 r•ch.S, prodl.&CUon .ach .ont.b 'fill tw Mtual io U.01t. 7 puc•~ or ••t1-•t.ed tot.&l productloa r~\tireunu.

A• can M MID trc:m th• index•• on Chc-t lo, acc\l&\ll.6.Wd tot&l pro- • ductlon ct field uWlery at the end or MA7 uou.nt.td to S percei\t. ot rtqu!rement.1. During tbi• llUUltr the total rill bo rapid.17 increll.Md, and, bJ the tad ot October, t..be Jnd.ebould !t.and at. 19. Another ,_,. •U•t. pe11 ... lt.t.y 19~ - be.tore M.l.t ot the production reGuir•ent• 11.re produced.

Ant.i&l['c;t•Ct, f',ei;oona. The tDOnt.h.17 rate or production or ant1-alrcr6ft. CWUI 1.n liAl' .as tl.iCt ••

CHART 5 - MONTHLY PROOUCTION

RATE - ANTI-AIRCRAFT WEAPONS

..... .... ..... '---

- ... -·~---~

.... .. -....

NUMBER 4 7

hlch •• th• r•t.• tor tield artiller7. Tbi~ ef.lle rel &tivt Av.j)triority will be carried into 1unt 1941. It anU t.1.rcr tL!t ru.n 1chtd\llt1 art •tt, t.b• producUoa r•t• Wex rill ~ a t JJJ, •• ahom in Cha.rt. 5, ca.pe.red rl th tb• expecwd J>M.k r• t.. or 100 1n Jun• 1944.

!he a.nUcipat.td Jqne 19.41 rate la oTel" Wot &nd a bal.t Uaes the ave.r•c• r•t• tr-o. July to Oecec.ber l 9.IJJ and t rl c • t.ht aver•&• r• t@ t or t.bo !"1r•i. quart•r or 1941. This is uinly due t.o 1ncrMatd production of 90 u. CW'• e.nd ~O cal. anti&irero!t 114chint 6'1J.11•· Pr oduction

CHART 6- TOTAL PROOUCTI ON ANTI-AIRCRAFT WEAPONS

..

.. r----

• ...... ,

CON Fl OEM Tl Al •

ratta tor a.nUaJ.rera!'t wMpone will not incr1&tt •• rapidly • • t.boat tor tilld arti ll1r1. In Junt 191.2 llOnt.Al.)" producti on nu be equal t.o about ~ percent or tot&l prod.uct1or\ req\11.r..aw.

The 1ndu of total product1on ot t.nUa.1.rcra.ft. suns at. the: end ot .., .....,ted "° 9 c-ed will> tow.l prod\leUoa r equ.ir-..Ct-1 &1100. thie ie al.aoet. t.•iee as bi&b •• t.bt lnd.x or ' •t th• l!IO::t U.t tOl' field 1.rUllery. e, Ui.e end ot a.not.her live aon tba (Oc tober 1941) 1

t.ht indtX or totcLl &CCU!llul&ted product.ion prtee.nted. in CbA.U"t. 6 should be r.ort t.ht.rl doublod at 19. 1bo aocelltd "titt.y- pttcent. critJ.cal point" tor a.nUa.ircra!t. . .. pont 11 not. tched:ultd t.o be exceeded prior to J1.:.11• 1942.

tp:entzr suer ting •·-m.i· ?beat CUD•1 ::&1.nl.T c.achift• cun11 nnea, and UP,t 71 = cannon, F ... Ill\\. \.ht Mliett s;roduetion pro'ol• of t.il1 type or CW'· As Ul.e prod.uc~ion rat.• lnde.xea &lven in Chart. ? indlc&tt , ~ produc tion wee )6 again1t a P•ak rat• or lCO scheduled tor Oci.o'btr 1941 . ·Th! G i• the h!1ith· "'" or &n)' ot t.be rroduction ra t.41 i..... dexe1 prtamited and... 11 doublt \be !'At.t 1rb.1Ch plated ourinC the firAt 11.x aont.bt ot d1toc11 t!tort. I\. it &l.IO 10 pol.ct.a hi&har \ban th• &VN'•t• or t.bt r1r1i. GU&J"t..r ot 1941. Ho• tvv 1 there • •• a deer.a• 1D product.ion troa J..prU ~ a!L-7, mln.17 bt:cautt or • drop in prod'uct.lon or &11Cb1t11 p1.

Tb.1.1 1.ndtx should rt&eh halt t.he pee.It rate durin& June, eno 1hou.ld contJ.nut to 1.ncre~ie r•p1..U.y until t.he pe• )c t n October. Atttr

•

NUMBER 4 7

t.h&t tiae the pr•1-1t Nb-u.cb.i.n• iU" P"OVAA ebollld be -pleted and scheduled product.ion ct.rope ott rapidly. Oct.ober production la cow ac.bedul.od t.o eaou;nt. t.o nearly 8 percent ot tot.al requir•.,W· !b• general peti.rn ot aonthl.7 prod\ur tloo !or WanU'7-1UipporUnc weapons ia very aia1.l&r to t.ba\. tor co.bat. Yehicles, exc~\. tor ~ rapid d~ crae:• 1A .oat.bl.7 produc\.ioo ot infantry ••pone &It.er t.b• October ~tile.

CHART 7 - MONTHLY PRODUCTION RATE - INFANTRY SUPPORTING

ANO GROUND WEAPONS

.Mr0... ....... .., ,_, # • •n•""' .... •••• Ocl

lt•O L-- lt•t --l 1•c1

JUL'( II, 1941

G0Hfl0£HTIAL • • • 1

A• t.b• lndu ill Cbt.rt 8 1bow1, t.ot.ll acc:um.U.ated productJ.on ot thtll cun• aaount.td t.o 19 perceru. ot requir•Mlt• at. U:le end ot May 1941, &l.atott t.•o and • b.al.t U.t• t.ot&l product.ion at. th• end o! n.c.w 1940. lbe ,0-percmt prodl'CUOO poiAt. 1D t.bit UH will be f'Ncbed 1n lfo••ber or u..11 7flll'· lb.la iAdex it \be lLlP••t. of an7 ot th• 1.od•X•t preaent.ed.

( s.. ......... !olloortJlc -·)

CHART 8-TDTAL PRODUCTION INFANTRY SUPPORTING ANO

:::··"•~-G_R_o_u_N_o_w_E_A_P_O_N_s

.. /TZ--- .. •• f---------- .. ••

• .......

CONFI OENTIAL • • • 7

••

NUMll[R 41 7 co1mOENTI AL • • • •

.. ot.t• Oata incl~• prod.UeUon tor th• Onit.ed St.ai..t era.cl to:re•• aod tor Gr u.t 8r1U1n &Gd other co•~tt. the • debt• t.Dd incUYld\\al. aer1ea

ueed in deriving thea• three 1.ndexta are1

1itld 6£till~

s• eun e• Howitzer 240 - lfo• 1 t.1..lSS .. Oun !new} 155 ... °"" ...S.)

2 , 2il:} 92S

155 .. lloeiU<r (ood ,) loS • Bowitatr

l ,)57 800 212 llO

l,018 ~

J<l6 7).., Cun (iood.) 75 11m Rot1'1 taer

JULY II, 19 4 1

3' -90 - Oun 'J? 11111 Cu.n SO Ce.I.. M.O .

ln(ent.r1 Supporting ~

81 - atorw.r 16 f.o • itort&.r 8 77 • Mt.1-Ta.nk OIUl "n )7 a Tank Oun }3 7S • Tank Oun '264 SO Cal. W.G. 94 )()Cal. w.c. 12 .45 Cal. ~b. M.G. 12 JU n e, Garand 3

CONFI DENTI AL • • • 8

...

NUMBER U CONFI DENTIAL 9

COMM ODITY P111CES TODAY AND IN WOl1LD WAil I

••cx.•&U.• co• o1>1rr ,., ,,, , -'• .. • . .. . . . •• • .., ,.,,. . .. • . ,,. ,., •• , , . ,. ,., th• , •• , t • O a oet•e , f o l' t' f9e•t d J eee fl'OU e /8 /J •tl e a e a d J9t e rfer 0

e nc• • 11 1' • • l •or••• l•I llo • of d e l • • •• •• l • r l• l • a •••l'l' • ll• • • I•• • • · ordl tt• t • ll I'·"-*' •• o/ 11rlo• • • • t raJ J e • l'i••llT • ••' • " ·

Two months. ago, whole:iale com.modit y priooo a t.o.rt.ed 3n upt urn on tL • ido t r ont . 1'b19 18 in

mnrkod contraut to the genel:'al stabUJty o f pricea since the beginning o r Wlo European Tfa.r J Vi th t.he except.ion of the lnitiol C'.lurry at ;.Mt time .

Alt~ough the price level 18 •tW only slightly abovo t.hnt in Auguot, 1939, A coc:ipnriaon of the ;irosent sit~tion .. nt.ti t.Jmt of '••<>r-ld 'h4l" l leads to o. belief thnt the United Sute& i a now anterlng a critical ;>o•iod with res~eot to pr1co in-f.Lntion. It 'll'ft!l a.ore th.1.n a yco.r aftor the st.a.rt of Tforld ITar I before tho ~enorul µrice level showed any t.cnd40¢y to rise, as c~ bo teen !'roo the all. commoditieu vbolesble price indox Sho'im 1n Chart. 1 . l"von tor a considerable po.rt of ttto t1-ocond year advances wore, on the average , •till =odora~ . The Mjor r1::so did not. come until tho Uo.r bad µaased its t11renty-aooond 1110nt.h .

Tho pr esent \·,·a.t- found the United St.l\t•s with a. r elatively h.t.rR•r unegployed labor force than in l91L . Moreover, tho j)t'Ooaure upon productivo capo.city hns thJ.a t1c~ boon 30Q.9r.b.B.t slew-er in dovelor>inli· B'<lt no·;: ~e Pt"••#w-o is b.linG fo!t 1n aiwy .flolda.

ihougil the prodent cour•• or ,iricos ia in l%W.l\1 d•~tlil• d.itferent trwm thut of i.ho .Lo.st ilar, t.hore !i:J c~nuider~ble sim.iLari ty 11nd j>('lrulloliac. 1'ho la.t0-•t u.pturn, .-.bich

JULY 11, 194 1

started twenty months iu:tor t.h.o b0-gi:nn1ng of tho 'ifu, c.o...v 'ftcll dovo..1.op int.o a GOvoment. corresponding t6 that -c:hich in the 11u1t \',•a.r '1oL5 ll\-1t1at.ed 1n tho lo.tt.er pt:.rt of J.91~. Du.rine tho first. yolU' o! t.bo ; r esent Ullt' the cove:uents of the ~~er:U. level or prlcoo 01· e:oJ.oct.cd ~oup::; vera .&J.aila.r to tbose in norld t'llr I ln devree aa \':o.t.l a.a curect.t.un . ln 'thu sucso;ue,ot. nine monthG, the dir octi on in both c~ooo t.ua uv:-:Ard,oJt.hough t.h.a riao during the pree:4!ot.

"" tOO

80

CHART I • WHOLESALE PRICES ALL COMMODITIES

INOEX !60

• ./ A

'""

• J 100

P'fltSEHTWNI. ,) ~ s.Pt. t, 1919

~-z L_ _ 1 ... I &.9~ :'._4,, .. - -

80

60 ..

. ., . CONFI DEN TIAi.. 9 .

- --

NUllBEA 4 7

War hat not boon u p-oe.t " in \'for ld War I.

lb.rked s tability J.a diaplaytd by the curve in Cho.rt 2 aho'lting t.h• prices or met.ala Md •o\.cll proclucto. 1hia g?"Oup, <:thlch U t.o ooi:.o extent roprtaont.a.tivo ot durable goods 1n gcoare.l, ia U4U4lly cbaracteri~od by price at.ability especl.e.lly insoCa.r o.t quoi.d prico:t o.ro oonoernod. I t ia aloo cha.ra.cterizod tu rlde oyolieal tluctuationa iJl the volumo or production .

At t.ho ote.r-t of the praeeat. Wa.r the durable goods induatries wer e still at • low r~t· or production. On tho otbor band, the pricca of their comDOditi es, aa recorded. in the beau of L«lbor Stat i stics In dex, Md not dropped during the de-

CKART 2 · WHOLESALE PRICES METALS

192:4•100 r.NOtX l&O

U~OEJC 180

l6Q -

J ... /V '"'

PRES~l WAR 8tC"Oft Cl. 2,1939 K _ __,.. ........ -

I J jJat,"'.m r.t.~9i• •

... 000

"" .. .. ..

1913 1:914 l9l.) 1916 1911 ,... 1938 1939 "40 ~ tt4 2

JUL 'f 111 194 1

CONFIOEHTIAL • • • 10

CHART 3 ·WHOLESALE PRICES FOODS

IHO(X WO(X , .. -~-~-~-..--~-...... --. ... '""I--<--<--+---+---+--<•••

.. .. 00 19"4 Iii$ 1916 1911 1918 19;)6 19J9 1940 19-41 t942

presaion as sruc~ aa those of consumer goods , such as food8 &nd falr r1<:a , ml ... oro ot1 t.ho whole not auc!l lower than in the late twentioe.

'ilith t.he wau.sed plant and labor cape.city and the naint.ru:i.nco of 9riccs of' cert.a.in co;:mmodit.iea thro·ugb the depression, there existed consider~ble s cope tor oxpo.ne1on of production withou~ t.he need tor a riao in prices. As pressure on capacity increase• and higher cost.o beeo~ dign.ilioant, t ho tact.ors t:t.aUnt !'or price at.abil i ty • ill tend to bo ue.:ikened.

Couplod ttit.h t.hia llituclt.ion ia undoubtedly an increased underst.andint ot e¢onooJ.o torco~ 4llld willingness t.o cooperate on the p!ll't. of industrial leaders. Jt ia, however,

CONFI OENTIAL 10

NUllBEA 47

d<)U bt.!'ul 1f lMa in•• 1 und • r • t.a:nditlg Md cooper ation uon• oan long t.f1t.hat!lnd the pr e11ure1 or ~1•1n~ cost.a ttnd inorOoDinl{ •ociroi t.i•a o( J.abor, mteri.Us, and indut~r1-.1 capaoic.:;. The row.Lt or ~tu• preo1Jurea. 1:1 &lr.:dy a,.,..,.ent. in tbt record tor t h.e pest t.ot0 Dant.ha.

Unlike .. L&.1 product.4 Md •ariOu.J othe.r dura~• t°'°'11 t.h• 90Ye=!!!lt. or ;ic:-tc•• tor tood1 11.0d \«nU.e n::.•e µaro.ll.el-od •try clo .. 17 tho il-"1.t1 e:a.cbUthed b horld \,a.r I (.;" Qw-ts ) CU21d L). Por o•r~ tood ~'t'\>d\leto, euch &I ®1.ry products ..i.nd mo~t11 \.ho r1co in ;u"1ces h.:;.a dovo.J.opod .oro r~t>idly during t.htt 11resont 'iini· t.blU\ dW"lng l914, 1915, o.nd J.916. J..1~ :1.Jt•, in t.he ~ iniie gl"UUiJ t.bo ;irlcua 01' 0..1totoa\ g...,Jo.L.> ~ve 2.lro-t/ ..1Jlt..1c1 i<.t.eJ the

CHART 4 -WHOLESALE PRICES TEXTILES

..... ...

120 f--+---1---1---1--

JUL V 111 19 4 1

'-Ito

COfll,IDCNTIAl II

r1at toJ.lo•Cld ~ auoh ,rices 1.1\ c.ht J.o.g t. ' CU".

i'ho rtJ.&t.iv• wt.c..bilit y 0 1' th• ourrcint. ')r lcoa or i:iattu.o and •et.ell ;tri.Mluct.1 h..•• be.a aacribid by IOIMI t.o aucc111tu.l .JUb.Uc ,,n"iC• controJ.•· Such cont..rol• &\Y ind•ed bav• been. r••pon.tlble for price st.'\billt.y ot t.be MW.• lnclex. But. en ~1411-t.1~ of UM' .,.,eaent. of t.ho p:rice• or ot.btr (NQl)S or ~i.1-.a RWtW \Mt ~ 1\&_lrl.llt;r lA 1.he •W. pvup M!' tuve tto.n due; lArtt•~ t.o ot:.her t'nctor• ond t.b.lt., whoA t.h• in!~ucnco ot t.b.ea~ ract.urs 11 .xh.u1t.ed , t.ho pl"esent. cunt.rol• &a)' not. ~ suffici ent t.o hold \.ho pr1cnt down .

5o tar, t.here h!!.s beot1 110re •t.abUit..Y ill hl"ick Md t.Ue Wld c ... nt. pr1eeo t.h&n in mot.G.l.c. un t.ho ot.her Mnd* ftlle t.be ;n-lce• ot brlok and C.IMmt M ,.• btc:r:a b.1~ a\.~blo, t.bt price of Wilber 1• na. .,..._ Lh.o.A \.Nnt.y-five i)6-rct:11t. hlcht'r t.Mn "'- t.he lt.arL of c.be fiu.

hi JR'crYOnt. \.he cil.S&St.e?'.S tll 1.nl ilt.1•.•n and t.o in:tur ... --. i. t.ho t,;..,.. ti.ll• Qtl inor•~11ni fJ.ou ot doCenee mater1t.1 Md oupplles, a co111o1r• 00

h,,,111vo approa.ch to t.be con tr ol ut ,ia-iCAai iii W't,"u t.l.)' nooded..

'l'hi• col.la tor CL coord.inat..ed procraa 1nt.e~ating all polio!•• o1't•c\.1nC pM.cea. tuch o.t p:r1orit.oo-1ea , labor poUe,-, ti-CW pol1c7, avtcul \.W'1&.l pollc7 and cnt.1-t.naat. ~:....1c,· , u e.u. u o!.rect. price c.,,n. \.ro.,_. AnQ C)'..d.1" ,..oUcy .

• &.•t d un do.c.c. provided by 1.h• Un i t..ed ;;t,.at..ea Bureau of Lr.bor .:it.ot.1•t.lot.

II

NUMBER 47 CONFIOENTIAL 12

INDUSTRIAL DIS PUT[S IN O[ F[N S[ INDUST Rl [ S JUNE , 19 41

/VlfS $Tflt1 $ 0' • AJO• I • l'O•TAltCI to th• d•l• tt • • 11ro,r•• • ttd t h• '• t ul rJn4 • •,a-d•f• o f ldl • tt• •• •• t• lo •• ' th • " for • ti)' ,, • .,Jou• aonfll o r J'''

S t.rlltes of ser1ou.e coac•rn tor the mt..ional dot•neo prograa r... oult.ed i n l eas idleness in Ju.n.

1941 t.ba..a i n a.n,r previou.1 AOntb th.is year .

'lh•r• • •re 11 atrilc•• or importance to the defenao progru i n effect in JUAO 1941. Tbe m.mber ot ••Ployees i nvol ved le th••• diaputoa sae 28,275, atld the estiaated tot&l a.o.da,.y11 ot idleness cauaed by tti. .. otrikos •a.a 102,980. Those figw'•e are ba.aed on a recent a aal,ys ia by tho Lo.bor Divisi on of the Otti c.e of Production Mana~nt or the etr-ik•• •hich havo bad • signi.ticant tft•ct on tho d.ef1nae proerNl. Strikes •hicb do not. ba•• a crit.lca.l. r .. lat.ioaohip to th• proeru .o.ro oot 1zr eluded.A

~ Pre'fious statiet.ica r epor t.ed ill the ~ ...3J.. R!l!.B!!. P'rm•e• included &11. atrikos • 1th •to' r•lo.t.ion to the d•t•ae progru. In tho ~r•••nt art 1cl • tboee atrikea have been ODi tw.d 1'b1cb a.r. oot· V'!ry illport&Dt to d•f •oe• becauu ali.r mt.e aourcea of sv.pply or sutfi cient inventoried a.re read.ilJ' available, or becav.a• no fie&). do· lay in doliver-y d.at.. baa reaultod f\"Oll t.h••·

JULY 11, 194 I

LABOR DISPUTES IN DEFENSE N:>USTRl(S NIJMBER OF STR!l(E$

"" --· ...... . -~ !J ,

ru~uut tt )Ill•••••• - .. )1111••·-------- ......... . IM1 •·•-----· - ....... .

NUMBER or EMPLOYEES INV01..veo

""""' HlHHI -.."1 ""* '9'1'0 ,,.. HlUlHHll ~~~ u ,11• Hl.UAH AH lHHA .,., ,._ H.Ul lH A .. , ,.,,,., HAU HAI .... ,..,,$ .UAUA.U

~-MAN· 0AY$ IOU:

-~ .. .,. ~tRl,IOt

."411Clo ... ~ .. ·---------~ ....... )1111••••• "•1' ,.,,,. ...... Al'ff- 1or_..,-

CONFIDENTI AL • • • 12

NUMBER 47

'lb• acooapar:viore anpb MOW"• COllpart.bl.o at.e.tiatic• oo 1.aportant d•t•oa• •t.rik•• dur1J:ti the tirat •1.x sont.ha ot 1941. nie April fliun• do DOt 1,oclu.do t.bo lt.rlko or 4001000 coal •1Mr11 io the J.ppal.&chi.&n AN&. For moat or ita duration th.la etrlko waa not •1.rn1t1oao.t tor tbo dotci.M prograa . 'J'b• \.road.a ot tbe d&t& •hlch aro in cont.raat to th• t.rod of the .xp&ndina: detoaa• Pt'Oi'.J"U cu be attributed both io tbe 1.oor••iilc cooper1:1.tJ.oo ot lllllllq...a.t. &nd labor in tho deten.ao prograa &l:ld t.o the hlpreoaiYe record ot the l &t.ional Derena• ¥od1A tioo Sot.rd in pr-eYeot.1.ne: Gtoppa.gea ot iapor·t&nt de!onae work. To July 1, the Boa.rd had haodled 1.4 ca•••· Jn 4) or t.h••• 008~11, 1nvolwlng approximate~ 700, 000 wor~or1, t.bo employooo e ither have returned to work or b&ve post.poried etr1.lce action at the ?".ques t. or tho Board.

l).u-1Di tho month of June 1941, the Labor Diviaicin or the Ottico ot Produotion wan.gom~nt tollowed 100 l •bor diaputeo i nvolYi.og approxic.ately 263 ,000 eopl oyees . su·ty .. two or t.heao d111pu1A1, iavol •1ng approxic&.t el y 183,700, were settled d-u.r-1..Qg the 1D01Hh, Ot tho 't.ot.al, J2 di eput.ee, involving approxi.aat.ely 44,900 • orkort , woro .cctU4l atoppago11 • b.11• JO, involving 138, 800 were disputes lfith.out atopp&a,e.

oo Jul,- 1 , 1941, )8 lAbor duputes, involviag opproximet.el.y 81,)00 em;>loyees, were beini • •tcb.d b)' \.he IAbor D1•111oi:i or the Ottice

CONFIDENTIAL • • • • 13

ot ProductioD 11&.Q&C ... nt. Ot t.h•••, D.iDe • •ro actual •toppac••, arroct.-1.n.g approrlaatAlJ' 9,9SO • orkora. Tb• 110at. iaportant ot tb.e•• 1topp.. agaa .._. • t \..ho OD.1 t.ec1 SU t.oa 01Psua ColDpaJV or Qi10&6:o, Illi.D01•,•od imolnd 3,000 • orUra at 14 or tAe coaJ>CLQt' • pla.nt.a . Nooe ot tho nine stop~•• ••rlousl;r &tloct.d tho d.fema prograa.

Tment7-nlne caaoo •9r• d11pu.taa 1.nvolrlng no stoppage on J~ l. 1'h• aoat la;>ortant or th••• • •r•t

r ederal SMpl>Uldl.Di Coxtioration, Ke&r?M)', N. J. (Ca•• before the National Dot•aa• lledatioo Board) 16,ooo

'Work.are

North A&eric•n A•iatlol'l, Uc. , Inglo•ood, caill. (St.opp&ge in this case • aa or 4 d.t.ys duration •nd.1..oe oa June 9. I oa:uea involved in this diapute •ere sut:ait.t.&d to the N&t1orl$l Doteoae liodi.ation Board a.Del aer•-•ot. wu reached on lul.:f l ) ll,000

Amer1c•n Brt.01 Com.Pf.CO', Wat.erburn, Coon,

Pitteburgb Truckers, Pitta'bw-ib, Pa. ( S.ttJ.ed bf Hations.l O.fenae Medi.a-

Worllera

8;000 Work.era

tioo Board JulJ 2) 1,000 • orker1

NotAt lodu.stri&l disputes 1o dtiton.e 1nduet.r1ee • •rt d11euaaed i n Iasu.e 4J pas•• 13-19, Issue )9, paao1 )4-)8, l •tu.• Jl, s>ac•• 2...6, t..ad I1auo 26, pago• 19-20. IAbor confl ict in CaA&da fta trMtod in I 1a:u.o 41., s-111 10-1).

JULY II, 194 1 CONFIDENT IAL • • • 13

NUMBER 4 7 COHFIOEHTtAl ,. U. S. EXPORT TONNAGE

JANUA.RY, 1940 • JUNE, 19 41

lJ nii.d Stat.ti export. t.c>MACe du.r!nc lob. Mooed q\l&l'Wr of_ l<)il 11 ••tiaated t.o b9 b!&her t.hm

durinJ' tN: t1r1\ quart.er bt Uie 7Hr, bu• below .... i. .. 1 pre..ulng 1A 1940. 1b1a e1t-1Mt., ba.Md upon CODputat.ioaa Nd4I '11' the &lre&U or P..eS&al"Cb Md S\&t.l•\J.01, npreMnt.I t.o\.al •xrrt.I of d.ry-C:&rCQ OY9r •ea1 tonnage .- Such export.a a.how 1. 4 million t.on• tor April, and preliminary do.ta indlcat.1 about. Uio oaJ» level tor Kay and Jwul 1 bringing the quart<or l)- '°W. to •pprox.la.atel,y 4 ,2 m.illlon tona. Dry-ca.rgo exporla. overseas durinl the ••cond ctuarter or 19~ tot.J.od 4.S &Wion too.. Th• t.oon&g• ot UI.••• •xpc>rt.. !or the past. aix quart.er• ia ~ in the e.ccoes~ chu-\..

th• hu"7 txport. ~ tor the 'third q\aal't.fr ot 1940 1n.cluded ovor- age defen•• .. i.rial• whi ch were tranarerr-4 troa exi1t.SA&

Unit.eel Ste.tee •tocka to the B:-1\ilh. J).&rlnC th.at period tbtrt •en, 1n &dd.it-ioa., ~ large e.xpo.r\ tonoace• ot OCWl!•rroua metal.a and or iron and at.Ml, ine-.ludJn& 11enp and •t.ol-alll pt"Oduots.

A '~' llhi;>pin;: ait.uat.ioa coa.W"i bi toed to the COD t.inued low t.onIW.Ct du.r1n& t.he til'at quart.er or 1941. Lo•• or Co:ltincntal .Euro,>e..n aar~t• ror Amerio~ ogricultu.rnl produo t.1 and A &hi.rt. in the chuacter ot British purchases froa r•• ut.ria.J.1 to tin1ahod product• were aleo tact.or1.

~ Eatlaated bl" COfiqrtJ.na J) Deparc.~t. or C.O-rce export c l.aa•1t1-cat.J.cat Sit.to loni 'CoQ.I. The ficure• an r•?NaenU:.tive or t.ot.al d.ty-oarco txporta ove:-se.i..11.

EXPORT TONNAGE OF PRINCIPAL OVERSEAS ORY CARGO f,l!LLION LONG lONI

Ma.LION L0"f0 10 NS -1· ~ ·

•

• 0

CONFIDENTIAL • • • 14

I

NUMBER '4 7

DEFENSE

o.r•ca• Progru, Cot1.\.t'act.1, ard D1aw1e111ptt

The United St.at•• Der eoae Progru ( ittelud1tlg Defense A.id end. Brit.lab order•), al!I eho• n in Deteue Progress Series aixt Chart 1, &llCIW:lt.ed to $49.6 billion at the aw.rt ot r1ec~l year 1942. Tot.Ml contract a•ards a.nd oblig!t..ions agairiat tbtao f'Unde wero $28. 7 billion -.od c.aab ~y:ir.ents uount.ed to $9 .1 billlo~

Ca.ah d1,tburoe:ients for JUAO eur.o\Ult+d w sligbti, less thf._11 $1.1 billion as cocpared Wit.b approxi c.a.tel,y $l billion per =onth 1n MA?'ch, .Apr-11, and Way or t.bis year.

'Ibo princip&l chaqies i ,o the prop-wri durina the p&1t. contbe retl•ct a downn.rd roYiaioo in the !ia:'Y Progru and the 1oereaae io Army funds and authorizations or f7 . 2 billion {not funds 1.D tho socall.td "$10 Billi on Aot•),

n. da.t.a on contract a•t.rda bavo been r e 'f"iaed upq.rd. ae or l une 30 W talce !COount of the aof'e C(lll)o> plot.e inforu.tio11 troi: tbe lila'f)' •hicb becus awaUablt at the eod ot the fiecal )'t.u . Allocat.10111 ot tutd1 a nd contract a.w&l'dt .. u::de:r the Defenae A.1d Pro~ are now report.cl and llt'I in.¢1\ld.d 1.D tbt to\.f..1.1,

JULY II, 1941

CONFIOENTI Al I~

S£9ckpil• f)=ograa

&et.ween M&y 31 a.od July S, 1941 tot&l deliTeriea of st.r&t.efiC ... teria.le inereaeed !'roe 31.J. pere1ot to "'.3 percent or th• T&lue of th• recos..ended stockpile. Th• larg-e•t i n:lirldual pot-centac• chanee na tor quJ.n1,rio , • bicb increased from 84. 3 to 101.3 and i s t.he t irat u.t.erial tor which the •toC!.lcpil• hao bo•o completed. Rubber 1a the o·o!y other uter J.al for wh1ob tS.li•eriee ha" reached ae Ill.lob ... 50 porcent. or the r•comc•Dded atoclcpUe. Durlcg tbU period additional. del1•4'ries were alto Nd.o of m-ica, chrome, unlla f iber, tin, antiaony, u.nganeae • id quartz crya ta.le .

Bxcl~ding tho exc••• pu.rcbasee ot Ant.1.JloQJ, Nnganeee, quinine a.id t.wlgaten tota..l pureb.aaee Al of Ju.l.J S a.mounted to 68.6 ptircent of tbe •toelt:pUe . Additiotal CODt.raC!te ••.re placed tor ~ot..n, rubt.r, •?1C•ne1e, mica, tin, a.ntiaoey, &ad CA41la fiber ..

tbe eta.tu.a ot tb• atockp·U. Procr- ... or J'vl1' s 1.e shown ll Chart 2.

Pricee or St.i-ateaic and Cr1tioa..l ll&te-r1al•

The 9bolel&JA price index or •t.n.t.1ic ut.eri&l.e .... lJ9,) tor

CONFIOENTIAL ·' • 15

NUM8£R 47 CON FIDENTI AL · • ·

CHART I - ENACTED DEFENSE PROGRAM* ANO CONTRACT AWARDS FOR DEFENSE PURPOSES

JUNE II, 1940 -JUNE 30, 1941 '

'

16

8 1ll10N OOLLA RS 60

81Ll10~ DqLLARS

,

--PROGRAM ___ _ .... I

60

-

J J ____ ,,-~:~:ACTS l PAYfOLl.

10 I--+--+--+•,,, ..... ---- U-t----7' 10

_J - '

L~'I :,::-b--:-~-'1b':dt:::t::J:::~~·---~~,~~1::l__l_J ----- I I I CASH OISBURSEMENTS 0 .... ' I I I I I 0

Jun Jul AJJQ Stpl Ocl NoY Otc Jon Ftb Mor Apr Mo1 Jun

1940 1941

)f Uni lld S IOI•' ond British Progrom,,

t. Rtvistd.

JULY II , I 941 CONFIDENTI AL · · ·

HUMBER 47

the We•k endJ.nc hJ..y S al OOllp&red • 1Ua l,)8.9 tor th• aontb or JU¥. Th• increue na J.us•l.7 at.t.rlbrtabl.• \0 a rs... b tbl price or .. rc-ury.

'Ihe price indu ot cr-1 UC&l u.teru.1.8 wa• UA..4 tor UM .. .t «n~ 1na J"1J s, ..... ...,,..i .iu. m .s tor the llOOth ot Jilt.,y • An 1.Dc:t'eUe in th• price or hide• &tld •kiD• l•ra:•l.r acoount.e tor the riM.

Pre11 Hot.ea

In an e.i,reemen t. • 1.tn.c! 111 t JU.7 ~ Unit.Id St.a.tea 6p'98d. to Uk• for the next WO yeua all ol Brasil t • (Jrod\l.ot.1on or rubber, Mncart•••, 1nduotr1'.l diwnotlda, mica, quo.rt~ cryst.d•, ruWe, ttrro-nic.Ul, ti.rc.cnha.1 ~t.e, chromite, and beryl ores . ~ Met.all ftt:Nn• NM! fl:ubbor Rttorve Compo.nie• wW pu.rchaaa only Ute amountu that. cannot. bo sold thf'OU6h uaual. C-OGDtrci&l c.l\anr1e.l.1 . Jt. U •Hported. th&i. export&Uco or

.cer.;ain taportant. tHtenae uter1.el.1 ~•• bMn lJJai Wd io t.he United ~t.tit.ea.

Officl.e.l rr,:iort.- at..t.e t.hac. two &hips o~ing chror;e ore tr. the

JULY II, 1941

GONFID£NTIAL • • • 17

Philippiua t.o th• Un.it.d St&t.1 wen witbdram trcm Nn:Lc• by ~ J"&~M C'.oTeraMllt 00 h1,y 1. ThtM lb.ipant.1 wen ooaalptd bo·tb to th• W.t.&11 ~••rn ComiPM.7 and p.rinte 1ndu.try. an. •••••l whJ.c11 ca.rrled ) ,600 tci.ft• or chroaite ore wu •m1Mde.1 1n Japan, and ~ other ... ......uec11.o~.

LAbor J\anov•r

Tot.al sepan.t.l.on.I tor all canura.cturing 1.ndu.lc.r1•• (a11 reported by tho ~flllu of L&bor Sta1.11tic1) at J .86 por 100 .. ~ .. in u..,. Ghowed littl• ~ ~ iprU 1941 or tro. Ml.)' 1940; total e;eJ)tnt.1orl1 ror 7 lead~ de!1n1e 1nd~atr1•• at 3. 43 per 100 emplo;reo» in I.Say Wll'e lO'Wor tban t.h• J .4,l in April, b.u. cucb hidler Uum • 1"l° f.CO· QW.t. nt.e1 liJld dJ.loharp-1 an higher tbut l.L.8\. oont.h or • ;year aco 1r. th• •1l"C:-u.rt., t hiplA&ilding, Md llAChin•-tool iJl .. • duatr-i••. Tot..l. acceaeion rates ror all -.nu.tactw-inc indu•t.ri•• &nd de ... ten11e 1nduatrt1• NM.ined. high in llay, but. "''ero lowor tha11 in /1prll. 'nl• aeceeaion ra.tea in 6 ot t.h• 0..renae induatri.t• ••f'I •ll&ht.l,y loqr in Ktr1 tb&n in April, wbil.• t.be MYmth (a.ircra1'1.) abotrod • h16ho1 Acceaaton rat.o.


NUMBER 4 7

!lar1tl.mo DIPlOY!l!nt

Detenee ProgrHa De ta contain tor the firat ti.me eatillatee of the nuaber of pareone eaplo.Yed on vHeela e"faged 1n coaat&l and foreign trades- The elate 1n the accocpany-1n11 chart abow a downward tread from 19.34 to llovember 1940 in the number ot mon employed in tho Un1tlld States Merchant Marino. Tho tl'ansfer of abippin& tonnage troo United States registry 1n 1940 explAins the sharp decreAses 1n ecplo)'llbnt 1n that ;·ear.

CONFIDENTIAL Ill

Since Kovember 1940 the increase 1n employment re1W.ta troc ettorta to put the 0 •x1 • 1e eaormt of United States eh1pp1nc back into oervico. The merchant ab1pb.dld1ne prograD will soon require a abarµl,y increased employment and, by the end of 194.3, will r equire the greatest number or oeamen since the !lorld War pariod .

~ De ta provided by !Jni ted Sta ~es Uaritime Coa:ll.ieion, Division of Econotlica and Statistics.

EMPLOYMENT ON UNITED STATES CARGO SHIPS THOUSAHO MEN 10

THOUSAND MEN 10

•o l.J..u.JLu.L!.u.U.LJ.Ji.Li..u...1.L.u.LLuJ..u...L.l..u.;.l.LI.JLI..t..u.J~.u..u..LI.J..u.ul:U...LI.J..u...u..u..IJ •O 192.9 f930 1931 1932 1$33 1934 193.S 1936 1937 19)8 1939 1940 1941

JULY I I, 194 1 CONFI DENT I AL 18

• •

C()fiFIO(MTI&\. • • • It

CHART 2 - PER CENT OF RECOMMENDED STOCl<PILE OF STRATEGIC MATERIALS PURCHASED ANO DELIVERED*

JULY &, 1941 llt.) ...

> ~! .. = > 3 .. • • •

~- " • !w ; o 3 i! i! ~ ;; 3& • • • • ;. ... • ! '5 • •

• ..,. .. '"" """ ' "'-'•• .. ~· ........... ffl• ac""o 6 O-• •••o· ... . t•e-~·

ii ~I:' •• • x • i~ !! • ~

....

• ~ • ;; .. • .. • • " • " • ~ ~

JULY 11, 11"'1

'

.. • e

...w. . 100

0

HUMBER 47 CONFIOEHTIAL 20

DEFENSE Pl?OfJ I? ES S SEl?I ES

I . ..,

I 1-"I 1941

T.li •Fil I ... ,_ ~

!'OUl. UJtTllD IUtlS m:nJIU PDIWI •

l!JIUD ttUll3 A.m ,_. <n-..u. tlt "'9ft ... -u.'" -) - ,., .. , 1,2U ...... .. <J7 ... 9u'IM~ ... m "" T•~....U .. ••~ ... ... 1, )U ...

"""""" - < - ( l.U.lUe ..u,._,.. w • w> To'"1 7,J') a, ,JO.\ "·"°' " 42,1':

.a , 9.Sl5 .I J0,"2 D;: 1tr1UM ........ •.on .u,075 ,,,m "'9,0» a ''·'u .R , 7,CM

«snuc?S

Tow , ,291 J.5, 120 lCJ ,fU :u,au .e. 21,296 Cr lb'ltiA Ol'IHH 2,147 12,294 16, UJ 17,507 a 2J, 62> Pl.cw pq, wt>., l.ft•el, .... ,,...., ....... .. 0 ,902 "'·"" .a 21,«io

CUii DISll:MDmrt

Cl. 'Sl"i:lo .a., tra~, •'4• .... '·'" ..... R 6 ,117 11,na J!lt !rlU... ...... , ,., .....

t.tw.'1'91, •1'1· -~ ''°" ..... 1 4, IU I J ,61.& To'"1 sn ...... "·°'' .I ·~0'7] • 9,J..4,

O l l l C t l

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JULY 11 ,1941 COHflOENTIAL ... to

. ' NUMBER 47 CONFIDENTIAL 21

~SI PflOQ&l8S 81:11.1.m (C....t.1111>1d)

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J ULY II, 1941 COHFI OENTIAL

• I ' "

NUMBER 47 CONF IDENTf AL

IM)

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JULY 11 , 1941 CONFIDENTIAL

•• N UMBER 47 CONFIOENTIAL

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- ' NUMBER 47 CONFIOEHTIAL

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JULY JI, 1941 CONFIOENTI AL .. d5

DEFENSE PR.OGR.ESS

BURE AU OF RESEARCH A NO STATISTICS• STACY MAY, CHIEF

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS BRANCH MORR IS A COPELAND, CHIEF

LESTER S. KELLOGG, ASSI STANT CHI EF a EDITOR

F•I • •- r# •••r•I•• C#llMftl& l.•IH- U •• •llur l _, 1"9 ' •h••• • I Ill• .,.,, . ., .• , ..... .... , .. , .. "' ,,, ...... ,. , . .,., ___ , ,. ..-..... ,, .. , ,..,._. , ... , .. _,_.,,.., ., ... .. ,.,_, ..... .

CONFI DENTI Al.

NUMBER 48 DEFENSE PROGRESS JUl. y 18, 1941

•

BR IEFS OF CONTENTS

INDEllS or UllITED ST.lTES IllVE2ITORIES ot eelected de1'111e• equii:-ent ae ot Jul;r l, 1941, ehow• tor coab&t nhiclee 10 percent and tor pe 12 perceot ot the ~on-ean ettort requir•ent; tor ll&jor coabat eh1p1 J8 percent ot the 2-ocee.n HeT)'; and for airplanes 14 percMt ot the 50,000-plane provu.

TllERE 11.lI BE .l SERIOOS SllORT.lG:s or trained aercbant seaman to man the aerchant ehips scheduled tor coapl..tioo b7 the end ot 1942, accordin& to currct estiute1 ot requir-ecte and 9Uppq. 87 Dec-ber 31, 1942 ·at 1-•t 20,000 &dditiooel traiDecl. ...._ aeo will be needed.

Dll"lllSI paoop188 Slllll8

2

7

ll

CONFIOENTIAl. · • ·

NUMBER 48 CONFI DENTI AL • • • 2

INV[NTO~l[S or S[L[CT[D D[f"[NS[ [QUIPM[ NT

IND•XBS 01 UNIT•D STATBS JNVENTOI I•S of ••l•cr•d d • l•n•• •qulp••nt •• o f July I. Jt4 J , •ho•: for co•b•t ¥1hJcl11 JO percent end for • uni ' ' p•r• ctn t of t he J •• JJJJon·••n •ffott r 1 qu/r1•1nt : lot • • /or co•b•t 1h/p1 JI perC•nt o/ th• 2 ° oc11n N1vy~ end /or 1;rp/1n1• 14 p1rc1nt of th• !0,000-pl • n• ,,,.,,_, ,/

T h• Unitod St.tea progt't.m tor preparednese must be considered troa two point.a of view: (1) t he

production or 1.cpleoent• or .. r tor GN&t Britain and other a.ntl-Axi.• po•era, and (2) the buildin.e up ot dooost.lc stocica ot oq,ui~t. lar~• enough to .meet Untted St.at ,ee tactical r.quiJ"ment a. Theae requir~ cior\te ull tor Or'IO\J.S'h c:atoriel t.o equip a two-ocean Navy, an • 1.r-foree of ~.ooo planea and a rm,llion-u.n A~. In-d1xea previouoly preee:nted ! snowed the progreaa (total production to date and the.monthl.7 rate or production) whlcb baa beon ma.de 1n the production of materie l both !or our own tore•• and tor defense aid. New indexee :2. are pre8ent.ed bel ow timich ahO'lf t he effect ot production in building up American atock:s. At the present time atocka range tram under- 10 percent ( c~t veh.1.clee) to 38 pore.mt (mt.Jor cccbt.t sbip.e) ot United States requirtcent8. tor • t\Ul deteneo IDObilization.

.Uml.&nea . Al tho et.art ot the d•l..,•• proere.m 1n Ju.17 1940, tho index of lftillt&ey airpl.a.nea on hand 1rl the Unit.ed St.ates wa• 7 percent, ._,.., "1th • e..i or 50,000 planes aa 100 percent. Aa can be eeen in Chart 1, etocks were incroated vory ellght.ly du.ring the next •ix montha, but by the end of ot1• tul.l y .. r ot ettort., the index ot in•entori•• bad been doubled. Mow that aocn.e or the new induetri&l

JULY 18, 1941

t&c1UtJ.•• have been cona;tNCtod t.nd ••a product.ion 1• po111ble and will aoon be und•r way, st.eek.a may b• ex.peeled to increaae rapidly. At. t.h• end or .t.not.hor aix months or ertort.-JW.,. t.o J&nu.ary l, 1942- inventoriea ehoul.d be a.bout 20,000 planes, and th(t • •1$htcd 1nd.x. should be a.lJnoat double the preaent l evel tnd. oqutJ. to 26 percent or the total contempl&t.ed under the S0,000 plane program,

CHART I· MIL ITARY AIRPLANES

U. S. INVENTORY INDEX

I Wt Nttd- fO-f O full A!rr Foret

I

CONFI OEHT IAL

·.

2

NUMBER 48

C<W>at Vea!!lt. The two-oceen N&VJ' proer- call! t or an 1.ncrea!! 1.n the tonnac- ot .,..joi- cc.bat ... ._ 1el1, u compa.-.d with the nanl tonn&Be 1.n June 1940, 'b7 a.bloat 170 percent-that ia, at the atart ot the program we had on hand alilhtlJ' over one-third of the total needed tor the two-ocean Navy. The 1.ndexea ot invantoey preHnted in Chart 2 ahow that tonna1e on hand declined art.er July l , due to the t ranatar of 50 over-ace deatro7era to Great Brit.al.J:I and to t he converaicn ot ~ OYer-ace destroyers 1.nto auxi.liariee.

At t he end ot the tirat J!&I' the index or aajor ca.bat ehipa 1a alJnost back to t he oriBinal l enl. It should be recoani:ted, however,

CHART 2 - MAJOR COMBAT SHIPS


38

l Jvlr 1 1940

l Wt Nttd tor a 2: OCto" Nov~

I \\·1 Should

. .

~I Hovt,)f Conslrucfton-......._,.. r4

• --~ 4 100

36

l Jon I 1941

~-:~· ----··r H-OVI Now

38

l July I 1941

4 0

1 Jon I 1942

Rtquwe· mtnlt

JULY 18 , 1941

CONFIDENTIAL • • •• 3

that the tactical poaition rep...-1ented now 1a atronpi- than it -. a J!&I' qo, aince pl'!aent tonnac- doea not include eo larp a nlllb9r ot over-ace Yeeaela. In addition to the abipa which ban been delinred undel' the expansion proirram, work 1a currently bei.na pertomed on ovel' 700 thousand tone ot ahipa tor IOhicb keel• have been laid. Tbeae ahipa are, on tho averaae, about 40 p<trce1t complete. It thia CQ11Pleted work were added to the tonnaae on active dut7, t he index ot inventories would be 1.ncreaaed 6 point! (aho1111 aa a lilht dotted line on the chart) t o IJ., Next J&nUfl'J the 1.ndax, including both •hips delivered and work ccapleted on untiniahed n seela, ebould reach S4, or te1 points bilher than it now atanda, although the index includi.na onl7 active-dut7 ebipe will be 40. u compared with an 1.ndax ot 38 fol' active ehipa now.

Combat V ehiclea. At the at.art ot the defense ettort, the United States had almost no tacilltiea tor the production of combat vehicles • Light acout care pr esent ed a l'!lati vely ea91 production probl em tor &utocobile producer•, and it bu been poaaibl• to build up a subatantial inventoey ot thia tTP! ot ..,._ Mele and, in addition, to obtain a tew hundred lilht tank• 'b7 the end ot tba tirat )'e&r ot the proer-• Hew facilities are now aY&ilable, however, permit.tine a larp YOlof production and, b7 t he and of another aix montha , United States atocka ot 'Hhiclea will be 1.ncreaaed trom t be preaent 9 percent to 4D percent ot the needa ot a .3-adllionll&D ettort. Chart ) indicatea th• srowth ot invento..,. aince .Janua17 1, 1941. (Data are not anilable t or Jui,. 1, 1940· )

CONFIDENTI AL • • • '

NUMBER 48

It i• i,nt.ere•tina th&t codlaivehicle need• tor a l.7...ill.1on-c&n et!ort are about .75 percent of those for • )-ci.llJ,on..aan effort. Well over halt ot the ~uirtcente tor • 1. ?~ion~ e.!tort •hould be on h&nd oo January 1,, 1942.

CHART 3- COMBAT VEHICLES


c Joo I t941

·! We Mtd for a

l M.llion Mon Efforl

I

<O

I Jul I Jat1 I 1941 1942

100

Armr-t.rpe OW'lt• lnvontoriee of Ar=y-t1J)O ,rune, coc:pa.red with the inventoriea of those needed tor a ~ .million-man effort. •• lOO, on Janu.s.ry 1, 1941, uount·ed to 6; these were doubled iD the aix Aonthl to July 1, 1941, lid.th tho index etanding at 12, .uid by January 1, 1942, the indu will be 40. J.. moro d .. tailed anU,yei a of 1nventor1ea of ID&in t)'lHI• or guns 1• presented btl OJl'o

JULY IB, 19 4 1

CONFIDENTIAL 4

field Art.illtq. bidexee ind.1-catin1 t.he crowth 1n t.he in•entoey ot field a.rtllle.ry a.tt aho.n in Ch.art 4. At the end of t he t1ret. t1x maithe or effort, •tock• were anl1' 6 compar.d With requirmnant• tor a ~on~ effort ot 100. Al.moot Ill.or these •t..ocke repr.•ented mod•mi2'ation or old equi~ .. nt. Sy tho' end or the r1ret 7-.aT onQ\lih •dd1'1ond cun• had bffn modem1t.9d e.nd a relatively tc:i&ll n~ ber or new weapona had been produced, to r•1ee t.bo index to 10. Produ¢oo tion or t.h• two new st.andard ... ~ one-the l SS m gun Atld t he l OS im

howi,tzer-i.e eehoduled to incr•••• aia:rkedl)' during t.he 8Ulllller, and. by next. Janua.ry, the index ehould. reach 32, over ) t.U.•• •• high aa it now at.an de.

CHART 4 - FIELD ARTILLERY U.S. INVENTORY INDEX

I We ~ .. o '°' o

l M&on Mon (floo

I

CONFIOENTIAL

10<

4,

NUMBER 41

ipt1e1nay\ 'WMQSE•• At th• et.art ot th• d•t«i•• procru. th• Unit • d St at11 ar.ed torc1e bad enough uchin1 fU'll and ) " ant.1•11-cra.tt. iun• t o pve &n 1nv1ntory ind.x ot 7 p.rc~t. ot 11t.iaattld r.quircimta. 87 J'~ l , 1941, u 1• ahOWl in Chart j , U11 index rNc.hed 11, DIJnl.7 t.hJ"01.1#1 pr'Oduct.1on of 71 m. gu.n1 and Mchinl P•• Wrce •clie production or t.he jO c..i.. Ul

•Wr<ntt ,,.. &nd u.. a1.0nd&n! 90 - gun durlc1 the nut. •U .crit.ha 1hould cau.ae the index to r.acb 22 on January l, 1942. The 1chedul.ed po1:it.ion nut J&l\ua.'7 •ill be th• lowest ot any ot th• t.tu-11 incl1x11 ot sun• preaent td here .

Intantry-tueoort.irur iHQ9!l•• On J&nua.J"7 1, 194.l, th1 Anq had 1111 t.h&n 7 percent. ot it• nqu11"8Mllt1

CHART 5 • ANTI · AIRCRAFT WEAPONS

U S INVENTORY INDEX

JU~Y 18, 1941

I Wt Httf t_. I

) Mi ..... "4M Cfttol'I

"•• ·· -·

'

COHflOEllTIAl • • • 5

or ntw Out/Id rin11 alld al.i4ftt.l1' over 3 pt,l'Cent ot it• nqu1J"ee4ntt tor uchlne iun• and 1uloach1.rl1 ,una. The invtnt.01'1 ind.ex (uclud.1.nJ 1.nYent.or111 ot Spr1ncn11d n.nea btlnf Uled II 1\abtt.itut.41 at.a.ndard ... ponl,.

•w.1•1.Ac prod\lcUon o! Gu&Mt ) on J &nUU7 l ... 5 ccapared with ,.... ~t.. tor a )-a:1lll~ U.:, •• 100. Product.ion or t&..11 ... pone 1,1 • CClllllS*-Nt.1• •17 ....,. pl'Ob1•, and. wit.hi.ft UM •ix 11C10t.b.9 to Jul.J' 1, 1941, \he index .... ched 1). Tho llOtt illporU.Dt con.UtuMt• ill t.hi• exp.ntion ..... nn •• , light ucMn• IW'I•, and 71 m gun•. Cha.rt 6 ehowt that, 'by t.he «'Id ot t11oth1r 11x ..ont·ht, 1nventor1ee ehould lt!»OWlt. t o '' 1>9rctnt. ot eatimated n eed•. At t.Nt.t. till• th• principal. ehort&a•• wUl be 1n YI .. 1\111•, hMvy .. chine gw'lt, &nd C:an.nd rinea.

~ 6-ff'AHTRY SU'l'ORTNG ¥>£APONS U S INVENTORY INDEX

"" •••• ..... , •..

........ 1. 3 M!ll,.4 lril.Ofl f lfo•I

<;ONfl OEllTIAL

..

NUMBER 48 CONFIDENTIAL • • •

Toot.not.•• 6

l •we II>~ pp. 2-6; l •tu• 47 PP• W.

l 1be " iP"'• u«t 1A con.d.nlctJ.na t.ht in•m\.or7 index•• an the ._. u tho•• utecl ltl tb• production rat.. Md tot.el prod:Uici.1on 1.Dd4iu.e. (ct. Footoowi A)

JULY 18 , 1941 CONFIDENTIAL • • • a

NUMBER 48 CO~FIOEHTIAL 7

MERC~ANT SEAMEN REQUIREMENTS

Thet• • • r b• • ••rlou• e horl •I• of tteJned ••rohen t • • • • •" 10 • • n lh• ••rc henl e hlp• ochedul ed f or ••• Pl •llon br th• e nd of 111 2 , e ccordJn' to curre nt ••t i••••• o/ requJr ••• •I • end 1upply. 1 1 O•e•• b•r J J , 111 1. et l••• t JO.OOO eddJtlon•l tr• lned • •--•n • Jll be needed,

.. ••t-iou.e 8bortage or t.raimd per~ aonnel to .an the iurch&nt ahipa

scheduled to be coapl•t.ed by th• end or 1942 i• li.ko.11, according to current eeti-.tee of requir-..nte and auppl y . It ia clNr]J wd1e1rabl.o to •ggrante tbe 1xiet.inc lob!~ ping s i tuation with a abort.ace in trained peraoonel.

E.ati-.t.ee 1.ndieate t.b&t 20 thou.e&ad .. r·chant • •amen 1n addition to thoee • ployed on July 1, 1941,

will bo r equired l>Y tile ...S ot 1942 . 1bis ae.ana a.n U.crMI • of about 40 percent i'D tbe t.ot&l TOlUM of .... Plo>)'lMnt. !he acbltdul.d CCJ9.pi1"t.1cm ot 428 Mrchant abipa 111 11.ua.d ill thie •• tiN. t:.e , lben th••• llhi pa ar. -.ddtd, the i.Mrican .. r~t n .. t -tll total l,S,38 lhi.P• by tb• W ot 1942, a a eoml)(lrtd •itb l ,llO abipa on July l , 1941. !b• MaritiM eom.aieaion tra.inina progrq DOif in at!&ct i e ba•od oa th• requirementa tor tho Jl.l. ebi pe ordered prior t.o

BY DECEMBER Jl, 1942

he.Wng 'rr•i.n.ing Pro-

grut PJ.u.e toti..toci J'rogr .. Estlaatod Per aoonel Eotiut.ed irraWng

•e Per- rap1.,...,. Per eonnel l!llpl07ed Additi onal o.ot ot ae Percent

•• or flequiremel'lte Prograa Roqu..i r • - ot Total Jul,y l , ment-ia !Wquir•-1941 Hnta by

Deo . ~l 1 01 ?

Pere•nt) (PorcODt) Ooot Licensed 4, 800 2,000 l ,000 so 85

ODl.ioec.1.t lJ,000 5,900 2,400 4l 82

Fzagi:o• Licen.eed 4, 800 2,000 i ,ooo so 85 Uo.lio...,,aed 12,000 5,200 2,400 46 84

Radio l , <00 1,000 800 80 91

St.en.rd• 12, 500 J,800 l ,200 32 84

ot.b•r '~ ·~ - 0 ~

Tot&l. 48,700 20,000 8, 800 44 84

JULY 18, 1941 CONFI DENTI AL

NUMBER 49 COHFIOEHTI AI.. • •• 8

SEAMEN REQUIRED FOR MERCHANT SHIP PROGRAM

428 hllrchonr M'licl• or• tcttecUecl lor coml)le tkw'I b)' o.e. 31. 1942

THESE NEW SHIPS Wl l..L RECUIFI£ 2-0,000 M£RCH4NT S£AM£N, Ot! WHICH TH£ TRAI N ING PROGR4M IS PL ANNED TO SUP PLY e.eoo BY Of:G. 31, 1942.

UOENS<D tttti DECK

PERSOMEL UHLOC<KSEO ttttttttltlt CTlil IlJTTT'TllT11TJTTIIIJilI'

ENGINE

u<tNS(O itttt '9'"''r}TT,.1" IA AJ l ajjtJ

PERSON~ u•u ot•\to t I It tlttilll illllllTTilTTTIITllTTlillT;

RADIO OPER4TORS

STEWARDS

JULY 18, 194 1

ii it llJltl lltttl

LE OE.NO

t too- • ....,..., or 1111 Mfll'ltttM ~tor "~•"1•V3V"'2. I toO..,.,,....,.CI 11tl2/llt• 2..

;11TiTlTTTTlT1lTTTli CONFIDENT I A\. • • • 8

NUMBER 48

I

March 1, 1941, and nprosotit• tull uae ot ••ail.6.bla traJ.n.ing taoilitiea aod a lll'c• oxpanaion o~•r pl'9Yiou. training progru.1 . DDder it 8,800 men a.re achlKlulad to b9 grt.duated durif'i the DOX\ oigbteeo montba. Tb• 41it.u..t.ion b)" t.yp.t of poreoMal required and to be traitied ia ebown 1n i:he acooapaeyi.nc tabla aod cha.rt.

Tho t.r•JJ:Una 1et1ed:U.a • ill thua aupply about 50 percent or the additional licenaed per aonnela mast.ore , siAt.oe, Jw:t1or- oftice-ra, en.gineere , etc., required b)' l>9i::Ollbor Jl, 1942. Thaae achedulee • ill also ~pply between 30 a.nd so percent or the r equireunte for a.ddit..ioW un· l i eensed personnel: 'bo&ta• aina,able aeazen, j unior enai.neera, wipers, etc . I o the caae ot radio operators, the t.rai.nin£ progre.c w-1ll. tJUPPlt about eo percent or the &dditi orut.l. req\llr•inent·•· Tho tot.Al potoot.ial per&onnel abort.a• for tho n.xt •i&hteen months ia about 55 percor~t. or t.h• aullJ.t.ional requirements .

The eajor difficulty • ill arise, ho• evor, •itb t.bo lic•oa•d peroonnol Tbe officers• unions have expre3Ged con.t'idtl\Ce 1.n their abU1 ty to secure the requie1t.e Q'Ulll)or of t.r&-ined men. But, in order to meet. the roqttlr«tunt.e., it. • ill ~ ntceaa.ry, 1n addition to the training prograa, to t1nd a l'.IWlber or ot'ticara equa.l to 20 pctrce.ot of the liceDb~ ptl"aotinel employed on July 1, 1941 . 'lb.et.her • 1,,.J"t1c1ent ml.llber o! een who • ere previously on the tea -.nd a.re now upl oyed in land work can be •tt.rectod bf.ck t.o , .. _,•"1«::• • 1 tb .. out. tbe otter of eubatant.1all1 blgb4r sal.a.riea or bomu1ea i s extr ... J.y dou.bt.tul. In Yit• ot the dt11,rt. &bilit1 of keepina down intle.tionary teodtnc1t81 the Wiadoa of IUch &

policy 5111.1 be; qu.etion.-d .

JULY 18, 1941

•

C0NF10£.NTI AI.. 9

In U.e «::lie ot tbe w:Uiceneed pereonnel , t.he potent1Al lho.rtace 1• abou.t 6o perc-.ot ot t.Ae &dd1t10D&.1 requ.ire•ent•. To ... t tbi• Mort&ce., ho•eTer, Ya.rioua possible cou;rae1 of action are openi (1) the uae of ~. rta•rve ot •ti.e.cbed• (i.e., unemployed) aeaaen1 (2) tbe att.ract1.Dc back t.o ....... N 1Ct J)t!rlemil DOW employed in lf..nd •ork; (J) th• d.ilut.i on or orewa by th• employment ot SO percent ~.toed a.nd 50 perc• u ·een men, th• ht~ to be u.eed • • ordiOillr)' ee&.Mn, • ipere, and M&a at.t.eoda.nt&; a.nd (4) a r eduction a the present require21ents tor tbe 11~e ot the crewe.

Por all cl&aeea ot personnel it ~ be poaoible t.o 1.nereaae the trs..ining tacilitiea by rfMiucJ.nc tbe train1nt period, thue pe.rm1tt1q: th• tn.iniD(l: of &JOTO tb&n the preaent ocbed.uled m111ber of gra.duatea. It uy alao be poseible to add to th• up~r re.nko by ahort.enine. the poriod ot aervice r equired before adY&nc&IZIEl.nt. ia per=itt.d. But, tor th• #Ake or otticienor, too ar••t ~ r.duction in the uiount. of tr&ining 1• undesirable.

'J"be ext.ent of the p:tobl• -.y bo roducod by traufel'>"ing the ehip• to other regiJJt.riea, tbu• thro• inc the burden in part or in •bole upon ot.btr- count.ri••· It •'I' tl.ao 'b9 re ... duced by re1110ving obet&olee t.o tbe reeruit.aent ot rorelga personnel, it th.ill ct.a be dotli8 • it.bout "41.lCliq: th• at&nd&rda ot the &bippinc eervice.

The conatruotion proc:ru now under way baa •cbeduled &n &ddi tioo.al 219 lhipl tor 00119let.ion in l94J. IAbor requir81l8ote tor tb••• .. ,e.i. will aaou.nt. to an &ddi t1oml 10 tbou.aaad aeuien. !beee ban DOt

CONFIOENTIAL • • • 9

NUMBER 48

been included in th• torecoina Hti -ie. 'Dl• conatrvctioo eohedulAe or th• whole proeraa will eurel,J be epeeded \IP and an &tt.eapt will be me.de to ooaplet.e u.ey aore theJl 428 lhip1 't>7 Jal:ILIAl')' l , 191.). In th11 caae, the pro1pect1 ... pp ti.Ween :.-

JULY 181 1941

CONFIDENTIAL. • • • 10

q~nt• azr:l wppq ot llCen1ed peroonnel •ill be turthar incr.&1ed.

• Baaed on data !'urnil!bed 't>7 Uni tad State• llariti.99 ~111ion.

CONFIDENT I Al. • • • 10

NUMBER •8 CONFI DENTIAL II

DEFENSE 1'12()(312ESS SEl2 1ES

- {llUJ.w ..U.n to lk\.e) --, ..... .,,,,, b ,:SOl """' 2 49,608 a ,o, .,,, a i0,7'S Cl. lrtU. ord.N-1 •,an 22,01, "·"" .2 U,912 .2 ,..,;~

~ ...... ,,,.., "·.,., 211.ll) a n ,4'96 s.: l:ri ti.ti ontu1 2,147 "'·"" 17,)(77 a 2J,tas tlu .,..,-, l'Jb, , ""''.i, ''°' ..... ... ,.. 22, .0S a 21,660

C...W: Dlt«IMllmltll

" pa.r, ... b. , t.r....i, .i.e. fl .••• L J,SS4 " t ,191 .ll 7,671 El 8r-UJ.1b ~,.., 11'1 o .@.,

u-.;,..i, 1te-. t1 . 11-. L .:,010 i:J.,?97 2 s,"6 to'-1 m '1. 4,).f"J

.l. '·°"' it 9,126

O llllCTS

J.lll7t.IJ(J:S, alatrm, i:rc. -- """ '·"' ...... a"·"' lt U,9S? 2 11,957 coa.v.cw 189 '·'~ ..... J! 6,1.22 Ct.all. .U..tu.-1_,. •.•. L ISS L l"Jl l!: 1,.1..)9

Jl.lTU. Sl:ll'S • PJJml

-~ .. , .. ,,, 6, 785 a 6,4)11 ll 6 ,SS6 .aii,SS'

ccicu.cw '·"" '·'°" '·"' J. O,Z64 C..fib d.J.l.\J\u'•-"- " .[_ )17 .... . ""

OIU»IAJCJ (tul. Jan.l OrdM.1111•)

,.,. ...... ... '·'"" S,W I l,O)L af,081 2 8,oal Coo'°"'ci.

,., 2,SU ,,.., I 4,7Ja C:..M di.tb.u1-W fl.I, . .,, .. ,. . .,,

Cl'ftltfl IW.ITAll IQO'Ihdl't ._ Cm.IS:S - .,,. 2,1.21 '·"' . ,.~, a J,97S .2 J,961 ......... "' 1,152 2,2J7 2 2,~ Ce.all ~boa~• Q,.,.. " " L l,S~ a1,m

"""' """""' -- J ,?JS 17,ffO "·= .2 29.•~ Jt )0,60J JI. )0,60J cc.iv.~ ,,.,., U ,71S ,,,,,,,, .R 19,66.t. Ca.ad.M~,. "··· L 2, 495 .[_ "·'°' a ,,eo;i

• Oat. an •• or u,.. &lo- or \be -Ui or ...- _,....,\. t...U.lil• •w. a l'hl..l.a1Ml7 •'-· x g..,1_. daw. •·•· ou ... no\. 11nl.l."'1.t.

(Omu...d - -' ,...1 JULY 18.1941 CONFtOENTIAL. II

. ' .

. . NUMBER 48 CONFtOEHTtAL

CHART I - ENACTED DEFENSE PROGRAM* AND CONTRACT AWA RDS FOR DEFENSE PURPOSES

JUNE II, 1940 - JULY 12, 19411

12

8 1LllON DOLLARS

60 BILLION DOLLARS

60

W........f-f"--fl-1 // r:=i:==t--+~-1--1.~-l--k ~---20 1--1--11--+ ,,..-+--+--i--i 20

PAO GA AM --""'1

J I __ ,.---r-·r

.......... CONTRACTS + PAYROLL ....... - I I I

•o ,_..., ___ _, __ _,I, /, •• ...:o;..-1--1--1--1--11+ 11 -1 J.--+-l---+-1 10

- L.-l ~I l~-~-]-1t·:·:-~1~=:Jl:=:::±:::::::i· ::::t::::r:=:..J1tc~A~Sj~~·~·~sie,u~R:s~~1M~E~N~T1s, _ _l_J 0 0

Jun J1,1I Auo Stpt Oc l Nov Dec: Jon Feb Mor Apr MO)' J1,1n J\11 1940 1941

)( Uni11d 510111 ond Brl1ish P1ooroml.

1 Revi116.

JULY 18, 1941 CONFIDENTIAL · · 12

'

. . NUMBER •B

....... ......... ....... _..

....

"" ·~· ·~· Ilj!!!W:!: r~41la... :911i11P. ,! 9 P!A!J

- - JU ......... IJO Oa• ti' _ ... • ....

mmTllAL ,~ C!Ll ....... C..\n.• '4 l'lllM ... ,.i. ••

ton1.mion.• IOMD'l~nau ....... C.\n.• t..I T..i. 111 pi..oe C..91l 4.hbu PWWW\4

!!!!!!!!! --......... •.im. .. ,.i.-0.... Ii' WW

....... ......... C:...&"--"'

!!!!!!!!. --C.W-• ... c.•~-w

,., ..... -~ C..a. '11bW'l-U ---Clll.11114U tlolr-t• .. ., -Ot.lijl d.U~

WU119CI, m&:rm., ft'C. ....... .... ...--.

10

... •... •... •...

.. ,. •... .... •···· •... ,.. •... ,,, •..•. "' .....

•...

COHFI OE NT IAL

'"' .., -aw.a.. ..ua.r. ....... , •

"' UJ •u1

..... I.ID t"'

•... ... ... •... .. .•. .. .,. ... ,,,. UJ t"

"' 'Ul ... t JO)

"' .... '·'-" , ..

..... "' . ""' ll 1,tot

1,))1 .11, J)I l! 1, ))6 1 1 , ))1 •..•. . .... JI ,,. l ,,,, • .• . Jt ~

J, 11f a J,65:' 11?~ a i ,:-_u

" 1,m » 1,.469

,., 41» M.j a ::aJ .... •... . .•. ...

t 'tt

"' "' t "'

..... . ,.,

. ,.,

1,UO .I 21 ).U JI 2,),.j "t,04> a i , 200

lll9 a 1,w a i,IL( ' M.l .. '1j0 .,. t ,,. . .,. . "'

.... ...

2, ),,

J 1l44 a ) ,JU .I ),tu R ),ta.. L W .1 U9

• Ill.•..,.. u - .. .i- .t ... -'- .., .... .....,., ·~ ... . .a~ • t.11. I:............... ..... Dt ... .n 11-.....u.u.i..

(C.U.... - ..:n ,....,

13

JULY 18 1 19 41 CONFIO(NTI AL 13

..

t

NUMBER 48 CONFIDEN TIAL 14

mr-.. rllXNZIS 4llllB (too\1.lnl9d)

I 19'0 I 19'1 - ,.._, .... - .... "'n" J'iiI1 J --;;"17 l2

!w:rl 01 r.wn.. (II m101 rm SI!!· "' llCllSSITf { IU.ll.1ca dol.lu• t.o d&t..) •

, ..... I .. ~r i.ml ~lld. pri.Tll\e tt..d.. 747 ,.,.

~lld, jNbl.10 ~ ""' 199 ....... ..,. 29l -- {~ ot Pall.utc lmit.) •

hAd ..U-U.:.. C..tl'lloUOD -in.ow·~ Cca..t.No\locl -plew.s I )6,191 72,))4 "·''° 18,S-)O 11,.m

"·'"" I ...... ,1 uo .... , U0,,.. , 1.ll),,.. l , 314 l4,4M U,761 2'3t-19) 2' ...

l'!UOIUTt CDl.Tl7tCATl8 6 DTIHEOIS ("-bu)

Tot.Al l.t..-1 I I ll7,21., 29M491 "°•'°' I >>1,T4t ACll C I IS

0 . •• ll.W:t&ll:l ( Ull1m do.J.la.H t.o MW} • ---- 2,6'0 •,m 1),1)) a 20,JL, a 20,)µ ll ~.,,~

COO\rl.oW • PQT'Oll jC ..... .. ,.. .a lO,Oll C..bd.1.-.-"- 71 ' l,:U) L ),)).2 J. ) ,868

»i.Tt -~:na ..... 10,726 lJ,6)) J? lJ,21) J. lJ,96'1 J! 13,967 ccau.ow + polJT'Ol.l 1 ,)1) ~.9)1 ,a,178 .I U ,:t20 C.tib d.lebu..r....at. .. X l,O,l " 2.o:u a 2 , :szl

11>!'1.-,.,,.,.. ...... 19 , 10) ... .,,,. .2 ''·"'° J! .)4,)19 Ji )4,)19

Ccatnow + pq7'0ll '·""' U ,9JS "·"" .a 21, }U C..b dut.i.r..-t.a "' i. 2,.m L S,J)) a ,,191>

DD'Df.5& ill) li..ld-t.-M! -- 1,000 1,000 1,000 7,000 .w-u- """ a .4,'711 Cc-tnet.t '·"· .a 1, .)92 0.ah~W L1 •a

1WU1'ln """"'"' .. -- "" "" 1,1)4 lt 1,1"4 a. l,1.)4 a 1,1S4 Coo.W.ot.. :u •• • •... ... .... ea.a. 4.M--.t., • L •) L l'7 . ,,.

m i!:!P: 1!!!!21:RJ ! 11111 -- 1,1'6 2,'767 J: 2 ,794 .a 2,194 ll 2,194 ._._.. ,., l,lJl a i ,1,, Ca& 41..bv-'"- L 72 .. 271 a'''

llirulll--- 1,'82 '·"" L J.69a • J,669 R. ,,669 .a J,66t cmu.ou 1, ... '·"" ·1-... a J,6'7J a,,.,, o.• &•-'- ,.. "1,,,. L ,994 • 2,0ll

osa .011em -- ,.. 1,002 1,)IO a i,.ui • 1,149 a i,149 C.'"'•'- ~ ... ,., . "" OUll 4MM Lll.4 .... .....

• o.• "" •• ot .. •loH " .. -- ., ........... ~ •'MU.abla ••• a PN.ll&LN.'7 ••· x a...s...t ..... •·•· 0.\11 aot -~.

(C.~ - -' tt> JUL Y 18, 19 41 CONFI OENTIA.L 14

- ' . NUMBER 48 CONFIOENTIAl I~

I:: 19'1

........, .. (, .... , .r ftlM )

I

... .,_ 0 13.1 .... .... '°'' .... -- ,., U.) & 14·) 11.6 "'·' 19.2 ladlaa. 1>1-ood.1 0 0 .. • .) ., .] ....,_ .. , .. .. , 17.9 "·' 1'.4 "·' ...u.i. 1U.r ... 7 •• l.2.2 i5.s J.6 , fi, 17.J

I ......,. 0 10.2 & 5.9 ... ••• ... .. ~ 0 ..,

& ll~:~ ..... 1 ... "'" Quart• Cl7•""' l.24 26.6 "' "' "' Qo;da1M ~i. ll.] "·' .. ., 101.) J.Ol.) lOJ.l ....... 11.6 )4.] 1.1.1 )).0 SJ •. 2 .... ,.. ] .? 1,., 2).1 .... .... 27.4 -·'- S.? 41.9 .... .... U.4 .u., Tow ••• 22.0 31.4 ,. .• "" Jl.4

~c .i.mvm MLt.tJO '° 1101Aa •

nz>. US. BO. PMOOCTIOll IlillXIS <~· 19JJ·~~) fo\oll. ~\r-W prod;aoUoo l.21 1'0 • 149 Dw'l.'tal.11 -raeua.1 .,. l'IO • 111 f~W... -.tao\w'f1 w 122 . "' ......,.

"'° w . ,,. g. zw, •• g , ~. lllfll, akDD.!11 SllNll'TS1 DIYDITmIIS (~•}

·~ ....... to..U l~"·! 12? 176 . "" ~u, t.ot.&J. J9-lOO 117 .... • m fot.l .inw'Hit.orl..-1 U/~) ""'' l.2Q.8 Jl.126. )

_"'" ........... ~l w .9 l.29 .1 J. l.'7·6 lfoodllnbJA 1JITwi\or1H . )8i-.100 '°'·' lll.2 .i w.s

JL8 J'flICI UOID5 ( lmau•)

St.J"&WC-1.o -~ (1/39-1.00t " 12;).6 126 •. l

·~i lJI,)

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CnUoU -......-i. !"""'°" .[ 10?.J r m .1 " UJ.j 114.• ll4·• l.U.4 8aa1.e «-cdJ. t.S,.1 a/Yl-lllO L 108.S l.20 .. l.l,42.) ..... , ..... ,., .. • oiw.. ~ j/)9o<lDO~ 109.1 w.• U 7 ,) u1.1 ...... . .•. W~t.1" l~ 71.7 .... .. .. .... •?.? •• 1

u 005r 01 uma um (12~2:)9otl00) lQO. J J.OC,a 102.

ft.Ul8POIUfJOll All» pona {.t...-.pe)

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" 17 27 llMt ,..... ...... (1111. blko *!To} ..... '·''' J , • ).lOJ ..... J ,W.

J&naw. uoma (lilli• ..u.an, ..-.i .... ,

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{o..u.iuM - ha\ hp)

JULY 18 , 194 1 CONFIOENTIA l 15

. . HUMBE:R 4 9 COHFIOE:NTI AL •• •••

I:: l :~ I ..,

' "9iEt'A' Mft '!TP (......,., ........ '-'- i.. ~ ,...1-~,

m.11\Uf •.l.rJil.-... u.o .... ""' . ,.., -·- -· ..... 2'J.1 .,,., ...... ...... .. ., .... )1.2 • )S.l .,..._""' .... ~ ~- .... ,. .. ..... rs. w uUU.., -· , .. ..... au.6 .. u.uu.n,_ •..•. lf.1 .... • u.o WU-b'F~,.. L • • .... .. .. .au.o

1'0'W. l'llctrilCTlOI tJllllD t~. ou.ai. ·~ 1-.11 1'40, procru ~U-'-100)

l.Wt..17 •t.rpl&n•• ... ••• ••• .. 1.0. 1 ec.bt.\ "'11'1•• L • o "' ,,, • ••• c:o.t.l ...... 1. ••• 9.) .... I u.s J.iiiv'-t.J'pt C\llYo ~~1 •... '" '"' .a 1'1.l FS..14 arullt17 •... ... '·' JI:,,, !:s\Jal.H"'t\ .... ·~· '" .., .a 9,9 WU~PPor\UC .... .... ... 19,, • 2'2.)

DIWWWW at -- «PINlft (~ u el ltl., ......... ~~)

""'--- ,_, ... .... .... ..... ~l ...... clM l!.o • • ..,, .... ••• ... 0.0.l ... ..i.. • ..u.....- 71. .... . .•. .... .... ~,,. ,_..., \-...1 .... ... .... .... u .• '1aU N'Ullt '7 ..... • •• "•' t . 9. 2 .., Ul\Ui.H:N.f't. flll'I• 11 , a , .., •.... ... u.2 lAfiWlt.17-~lllf ..... •.•. ••• u.o 13-1

I ' I r I

~ (,.......,..,et ...i.. l .. ..._ • ,,.J ..... ..... ..... ... .. -- U..l .... .. ''"' .... •u.2 u.2 .-..- • • ..... .... .. .. .. .. - .,_, U J.1 ...... .... , .., .. ..... _,. .... • • 1 u •• 2M .... .. .. .. .• - • .... .. 14.J u.2 .. .• 14.2 .... 0 u., .. ,.. .. JM .... .... ~ ........... .... ''"' .. 11..1 14.L u.1 '"' _.... ........ U.} ..... UM =·• 112.J 112 •• -- .... ,, .. .... 67.6 '°·' ,,,, ,.. ••• ))ol ''·' ,,,, .. .. .... -·"" ... "1.1 ""·" ..... ... .. 1.)1 •. l tow ,.., .... ~l.1 .... .... T'ot.U • UllCIVl GffH lD.} .... .. "·' .... .... ., .. • C.1- an 111 of \ii• .i ... •f \M -\ob w ,..- _,..., •"-U.llll 111"9• ·~·\,e, £~ ... M t.IL • •• • Cat.I N\ 1-U,.W,.., A ~--.t.l.\la t• MIL. ....Utr -• t.M.-.... & •i.ech ,..1• 11-.cl, .1 M J ........ ~ el ,...,._

(~~ .. JIU\ ,.,41 )

JULY 18 , 194 1 CONFIDENTIAL ... ..

NUMBER •a

I CI" i!!!

h\,..U. ~ ........ fev.1 c.1.U NM4f1,ft).wr.1

··~' Dol•M Prl"-Mt J.I MJW 1"4illt triN "1• · .. """Wt 0 prtolii, CIOllt V. ""11' t."'1 • .1.r .. , ,... •••

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~· \001• .,,.,.." ... ....,..... .lfllUGI IQUM.t IA.WUOl f ....... -. .......,, . ,,....., .. .,

JULY I I, 1941

.... '""' .... I

,,..,. l ,"'9

"""' 1' J:. l'' .....

51

., .. , .... ,..,

., •.. 1:1.1 ,, ..


,.., ,_, .., -

(~..u..r.. - - --·>

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·~ r ··~ 1,194 1,,,., "* a.,i:n '•°"' 2,0" ~.>>2 "' ,.. ~20) ~ 2,6n 2,914 .. ..

(.1kiw1)

~·· I ... ,I ... 7 ''·' .... .... (C..W)

.,.,,, .... n.• ,..,, ... 7 ....

CONflOENTl .lL .. • 17

.. ·- .., A Tho PruldOA\ l

' ..,

11., A [)E:FE:NSE: P r2 OtJ r2 t;SS ~ I ..,

NUMBER 49 JULY 25, 1941 I A

~ A ~ A .., • ,~ : I , ~

f \

~ .. ... ~ ···~

\ • l ' .., OFFICE OF PRODUCTION MANA GEMENT

A BUREAU OF RESEARCH AND STATISTt CS - STACY MAY , CHI EF

~ '""" _ ,, ·- d•• c.11..,,t& ,.,.,_ "_ . 11 .. 11., , ..... ,_ .. • , ... .. 11 .11 ....... • ••• ,.,, ... , If• ... . .... , • .., _., •• • _. .. ,,. .... ,., ••• I• .,MJ.UH .,. , .... ,.,...,, ... , ,

A ~

•

DEFENS E PROGR ESS

~ \ . ·-- ~ ··-

BUREAU OF RESEARCH ANO SfATIST1CS· STACY MAY, CtlEF

£COHOMIC ANALYSIS BRAHCH MORRIS A. COPEL A ND, CHIEF

LEST ER S K ELLOGG, ASSISTANT CHIEF 8 EDITOR

rtilf •-t r t Hrd•• Ct'JllllM:nlM. ' "'H ••lit• •"Uf h 4 IH ' • /•HI e / U e 41itll • ' Itel•• • f o.,olol.lt• el J l 1 e e11le tol1 I• '"' .... ,, le • • • t l .\erlnl' ,,, , .,. , 11 e11Ji11>110# •r ,,.. ••ele•U• Au,

CONFIOENTIAI.. I •

NUMBER 49 DEFENSE PROGRESS JUl..Y 2~ 1941

BRIEFS OF CONTENTS

e SHORTAGES OORING 1941 are indicated for 15 ot J2 1aport.aot commoditiaa. the a11p;>ly of oaly one of thaM 1 Mp .. iua, f&lla abort of aetia&ted direct 1941 aili t.ary raquJ.rM•llte while the SllPPl;r position of &luaiaua i• critical. 9\lpplies of 21 comooditias will be abort in 1942· Sllrpl118H of -..., of the N

Millinc c..-odi tin are colltin&•llt qpon the cont1.nll8d arriT&l of a large Yoluae of iaporte.

e llON'l'llLY CONSTRUCTION OF MERCllAliT SJIIPY.00 in American ;rare!• in J'ul7 1942 will eq11&l racellt Britieb, allied, and ne11-tral sbippin& losses or 425 thousand gross tone per month. Construct ion in J11De 1941 wae prooeed1ne at one-fourth the rate expected in J'"17 1942.

e LITTLE IlllEDUTE AID CAN RE.t.Cll RIJSSU troa the United States. It RWleia 1• ablo to bold Ollt llDtil late f&ll, tt.. United States will be in a position to t'llrlliah ll&1lT ot the Mteriala required b)' t.ha t OOllDtry.

e DD'lllSE PllOGRllSS SIRllS

2

7

9

u

CONFIDENTIAi.. · · ·

NUllaER 49 CONFIOVITIAL • • • z

ESTIMATED REQUIREMENTS ANO SUPPLIES

OF 32 SELECTED COMMODITIES

JA • fl •I • • '•rl•I 11 4 1 •r• l•dl• 1 t 1 d l•r II • I J J ' • •1rt 1•t Co••odltJ11 . 1~ 1 ••••IT o f • •IT 1a1 1/ 1~ 111 • ••4•11 le• • / 1 JJ 1 1 A1tr of 11tJ•1t1d dlt1Cf 114 1 • lllt 1 r7 t • ••lr1e1et 1 •Ali e tie • •••Ir •• • ltl•• 1/ 1lv•l••• I • crltJ11 J. I•••''' ' 1/ JJ c•••• • dlti 11 • Ill • • • ••rt I• 114 1 . l• t•I•••• 1/ •••r of ti• r111 l•• Il l Cl•1odJtJ11 l t l Cll l J1 1 1•t •••• ti e llAll1• 1 d 1 rrJ1 1 J Of I ,,,, ... , ... . , ,.,.,, .. ~ 1t.1DAt.d roquir•.mont.1 And #1.1?I: plies for 1941 and 1942 ar~ non

aVDJ.labl• tor )2 coc:smodit.1011. TbeGe include th• rovi~od oatica.teo of the reqtdroaentt Ind 1uppliea ot 22 co=aodit.1•• previoua,}¥ Mawn Md eet.S..i:.&t.e• for 10 &ddit...l.on&l cOCDOdit.ies .~

Chart 1 •how• that., ot th• J2 ccc:oditJ..e•. abort.ace• a.re ind.ic&ted tor 15 in 19/A. Lool- ln the lS are 8 of 'Ch• 18 Mt&le arho5".ft 1.D tho cbt.rt. Only t.1'0 of Ult J2 coa:xid.1-t-ies a.re not. eubJ~t. to export control, vii, col! and kip akJ.ne , aheop t.od. lamb akina. Al aeon in Cho.rt 2, ehortagea are indicated tor 21 commodi ties 1.t1 1942, 6 90re than ill 1941. '!he incr•••• 1n the number ot shortages occur• pr1no1p&ll.)' in the meta.la CJ'OUP· For 1942, ahort.qes a.re ind.icat.ed. tor 13 wl o! the 18 aet&ls.

However, the pn .. nt prospect or an appan;nt. llUrplua or ••"t~tod WPP1.7 o"r ••t.1Mi.d requ.1.nunte does not .. an th& t. no lhortaae rlll deYelcp. In .an)' O&ltl, tbe 1od.1-C&t.d. au.rplu••• ..,.. contingent upon the ooa.tau.d arr1Yt.l. or a large volume of illport.e 1 a• in the oaae ot antiaont, chro-., cobalt, iraphite, ,

JULY 2S, 1941

ai.ca, Nbbtr, silk, tin, vool, eto. 'Ibey u-t &1.10 contlnaent upon no up.. ward nviaio:n in llllltary requireMntt.

The e:stU.te of tot:ll req\&inmnt.a 11 taken u 100 perceni 1n et.Ch cue t.od 1" omnm b7 tho hHYT vert.lcal llne. Direct. a1.llt&r)' "'9

q..U-OW ere - Mpan .. l.Jr 1!7 oec.na of th4i upper black bar. th• ••t.lmt.. or supply 1e sho:n in ih• X.O.tr t:rar in tou;r .. g:;e.nuu at.ockl on Jamw")' 1, 1941, primar,r prod.uo ... t-ion, MoondAry product.ion, a.nd s.. .. port•.

Yor 1941. tho ett.ima.t.od auj>pl1o• or )0 comodi t1oe &ppec.r suff1o1on t to •••t. pr.11n t direct llil.1t..ry ...... quir.aent.1. Tho~ 11 Ill indica~ d1tict.nc7 ot 1941 supply f or di.not lliUt..r)' requ.1.re::rent.a in tb4I C&H or 11&p111ua, C U. the .. ~ poaitioa oC &l-1rna tor the bal..ance or t.h1e nu 11 crtt1.cal.. ror 1942, ih• .... Nlat.lon.lh.199 ext.at 'bets.en .....

·-dinot alllto.cy -~ ... and e1UM.c.ed INppliea.

TM indicated prospect ot a

! o..rtn•• Proa:rtee, lb. 46, Pl>• 1.4-17.

COfiFIOENTIAL 2


CHART 1941 SUPPLY ANO REQUIREMENTS ~t s.tl.t:CTCO COM.W.OOtTtll

'"=---::o::._ __

-,.,=------·· ----~--coi:st"--'Ol'!J~ I-.. 1::"'.L.rr:. ,• .t:.fti. "~t:.~:.. ~~·~ ~~:-......

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"'<e!·~-

~· _ ... __ ..

""J.""!"' __ _ f'O ...... .. ,,.. -·---""'='~-..,._~_ .. ----------------.... ----·-

JULY 2,, 194 1

ICO.H(OOU.11 • ... •t• (i(_to1

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'.w - -..

,-- ... 1

.. , ... . ..

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., _ ... _ . ....... . .. '

··"······•"'••";:";> - ·· ..-I ........ +f.'

l ····~ ==r ·

=' ~·~··"'' .. ,. -1 . ..

, .••• 1 ··-i·-

•• ..

l

..,..__..;._-~· .... "'r ' .. • , ~ . . . .1-Jlf ... -.:t-...,. . ,;.m::::;~.:;, ;;;;i;;;;;;;;::;:,,.

.-=loo~-: .. ..

•M ; ·.:.. ~. ! . ':;-;-Fi" t=t. . .. 1 .. . ...

COHFIOENTIAL

•M

-

•

NUMBER 49

IU.rplua or aupply over direct Cl.1.l i tary roqu.iro::ienta 1n ~ one year dooo not imply tha.t the bclanco 11 &vailablo tor nondofenao pur~o~eo. In nddition to dJ.roct ailltnry require:2nta, there are oft.n oxt.onaivo indirect m1lit.H.ry require~ent& su-oh o.a st.el to Wild rroi.abt onro to tr.#.nbport a1l1tary suppli es . Uoreover, who.ro the supplies ar. dependent 1n lo.rge pa.rt upcm .bportsJ there is the need for eonoorving au~?].y 1n ceae such 1Dporta Are reduced.

JULY 2~, 1941

CONFIOENTI AL

Tho a.ccou!)M.yins tab.lo ebO'.fO tho co:ood.1ties to ilhich pri ority controlo h&•• al.rtt!.dy boon B?plied. 20 out of the 32 comod.itio• have some fol"!) of pr-iority c.ontrol. 10 of tho 20 -.re eubjeot to tho a.l.locl\>ot,10n-of- aup;ly ron:a of control AS e&tabl ished b',r the vc.rioua U-Ordors, nn.d 9 ot them a.re aubjoct to the mild fora of inventory control es-tabliahed by General i.!eto.le Order ?lumber l. Oc• cocmodity (pl.8 iron) lo =subject both to inventory end dolivery controls .

CONFI OENTI A~ •

NUll8£R 49 CONFIOEHTIAL

~·I .. ocr1e;. ,..,, ., OATC _ ,,., ,_., (-1 , .... .,. -- .,,_ .. -· c..- ....

hDle&fa .... ,lb . .....,,_ - M.&.OC.Af I Oii .... . ' ,;11/ •1 -·- • lt#Of1'M\' tOtPM. ..... ..... .,, I/ l/'1 ...... ( .. ,") - -c .... u .. - lt#OtfOfl"r ._.. .... Mel ..... +s. ,; •/b 0-UC • AU.OCAT I Oll ..... 1/ !/ h CoeM.f • l•OffOrt 90fC:AM. NlrT M.a • 1 J/ l/b ..... - AU.OC4ftC* ..., ,;.,; .. '-Ou (~

fM:tu111u) - AU.OCA' IOilt ... l/U/'1 Cl lW'MITC (CAtfle.AL ...... 1 • ·-HJOO MID M l • CAnU. • -CM.I' .,. ' " - -CIOAT ... 1 10 - -'"'-"'MIO ..... • -ICN"OJC - -Luo • ll'WiD'TOIW GDltMA. Hn M.t +t I/ 1/01 .._., .... - M.-.OC.. f IC lrll ... J/l'/h M•oe PCM (OM) • h#Dn'Olll't 4lOfCAM. MP ALt -i I/ l/'1 ........ u ,,..., ( ..... ) • -·- • l•OttO... • OfPAL "P AU • t 1/ l/'1 ., .. • --- • I t«(Nt'Off't CIDl(llAI. " <TM.• • 1 !/ •/'1 N((Nll lllCJllC - M.LOCAf tOfll .... ,;u/•1

Ntcx.n. - Al...l..KAflOll ""' l/•Y." ,,. ,..,.. - I NW"Dlt C.ln' ... IOUM. "-TAU • 1 ,,. ·~ ' -·- .. tOllDM. ITCD. ,; .,; .. 'aUUOCl 00.l 'IUY ·-'ot•tM (c

1o) - - • l\,W[I! (c;MJOC:) . AU.0,'4T letf "41 1/ 1/•1 1 11..IC • -... • I M'Off(ll(Y 8DtUM. """...... +s. !/ 1/" ,_,.,. ( C1!1 .. ,1 • M..LOC-'f ... ... , 1/•C/" 'I lrilllloOli..f • l llffotlOI\' tote.AM. "<' ..... +s. 1/ •/ '1 WOOl. ( RAW) - -l tlC - M.LOC.&fl°" ..... ii •I••

JULY 25, 19 41 COHFI DENT I AL • • • 5


CHART 2 - 1942 SUPPLY ANO REQUIREMENTS 32 SELECTED COWMOOITI CS

M,. ...... lli!U* . --.unnt()Wl'

~··---....... 1$ .... J) . Uiolf , .... __

t;•OMllJ .. Uolt•--Clo!jlllQMITf Uolt1_...,._ CO~T · Ylill•-....... .._, __ _ COfl'C I ' ...,.,., """"·- --~,~ ........ -·---MlOC:I. MOSIUllS

CATfl l -·-CA"-' &JllO &.• .... -to&T ... I: .. ... _ ..... $14((fl -0 u.11119 ..... -..-. .. -·'""·--Lf: AO

...,.. , __ _ ""-A-C/ll (~IUW tit l,llOll , ...... _,

liH,lfG&•lst: tC ... I uoit.- ..... ... ll01HU,A ' 't(lt ( At o1cl) """'·- ·-· -U l!ltf;Ulrr -·--· w1c;• C ... t fl11,1J - ."'t"'-,_.... lf01.:r1or.1N111 • ---·---#LO"lVI(. •

.,...., __ -u ---... _ . ...... __ filOT&JM Cir.OJ• -·--·--..KJt to-wtJ --·- ..... -.......... , ---... -·--..Tllf!ICtT"t:• Ito' •~I · -·--·.......... OWlll

~·--.ooa. ta..) -··- ..-. , ... , ._., ___ _

JULY 25, 1941

• .. ' ' I

-· , .. I

I .. '

' ' L I

l . . I .. '· I

I -· .. .. I .. ' J

I '

' ' "' I I

l . I .

i -· '

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I I r

~ '

..

I • .. -- •N•t

.. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. '

. I

I I ····itc=: I ._. .. '.., . ...... . I (-~"'~-

I • . ... _f_}y ___

I . lfX:=

' I i-··--

J_ ·---l'WI_ -'-r-·-T ···r --I I I . I .. I ... I I - ~~ I •• I

I . ..... 1_ I I

...

I . -· ··---r·""-·T-··-·

I I I I I

I I I I , .. I I .. I • I I I •. .'. I I

I I --..

'

I I . I I ·--I ,. >"' .

I I __ ({"_

I :~:::!.,»::::. I I

.... 11~ .. --I I

, . . I •• •...•• .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. · ·· · . ., .. ........ ~·.T: .. ,.../U//////AV/,~ - -

CONFI OENTI AL

6

-

...

6

NUlllER 4t COHFl0£NTIAL • • • 7

MERCHi\NT Sl-llP PRODUCTION IN Tl-IE UNITED ST4TES

• ••tAIF •~• •r .. t J.,. •I .. , • • • • , • il##l•I I• A..•tl••• F• t fl• la /•I r ,,,, . ,,, ., ... , , •••• , . ,,,, ••. ' ''' ' ' · ••d ••• ,,. , •• ,,,,. , , •••••• , I JI r••••••fl ' ' ''' I••• , ,, ... ,. . C1ae tru4f/I • /a }••• 114 1 ••• ,,, • • ••• ,., .. . .... . , , .,,,,. '"'. , • • • •• , • • • • 11 ' " , . ,, '''' ·

[) uring J'Uno 1941, tho rate of cooatruct.J.oo ot M1'Cb.e.nt. ahipping wu ab:M.lt on.-tow-tb of th•

ocMdulod pool< ...... • ""1-chant. llbJ.p CCG.tt..nlct.1.c:a 1'0rk lbould l'N.ch 1"9 pool< !J1 JulJ 1942. It is eetimt.od that tho lOlllOW'lt ot work done 111 June 1941 io oqui't'Olont to Ule complete conatruot.ion of about 90 t:bol.iNll.d groa1 tone of ahi.PPiria . 'thi a 11 l••• than OM percent. ot the l~Uoo .. toa coo•tructJ.oc Pf'OCJ"&=. DOW facing /.oerictia 7Vd•. 1he bll.k ot thti con~t.icm •ork under the p:-oll"U is ocheduled tor 1942 - 1943, 11ncc all t.h1 «tddi t1cnA1 r.ays •Ul not be e.n.il•bl.e u.nt.U 1942·

A -t.bl,y production ttt.o indu for cerc.b&nt. .tdp production 1• presented 1A Cb&rt 1. ?hi.a 11 • ·-i<>o .. Ui. ;n-oduet.iol> ...... 1.0-dae1 cove!"inc pl.aM1, Naval ahtpe, and ~ mat.eriel prevJ.ou1l1 PH••nted . ..! It. MaiNNe construction work done •Ach month in rolat.ion t.o the peak month ae 100. Thia ind•x covers th• oon1tructi.on or all oc•t.c-going: cueo ._•••••l.a or S,000 cro•• \.Cll1.a or oTer..a Aa can be 1..a 11> w Chart, Ui. -t.bl,y ~Uoc ni. ine:ru.&ed from Q) e.voro.ge or 12

! Iteuo 42., pp. 2-l>; llfJUe 47, pp. 2-8.

l1 No oceen-so1na oo.rao ve1aol1 ot ltta t.hAl2i S,000 &J'OIS tons AH being coaetnict.ed or ~ a\ pre seat.

JUl..Y 25, 1941

between JulJ owl O.cecbor 1940 <o 24 in .rune 1941· The GIA.in ft.et.or 1n thU rlM ~ the nonthls rew baa bee:i the lup iacrNae in ~ .,..... ber or ~,.. aT&llabl.e f'or con-1tntct1na oo...n-eoin& t.om:i.q•. Kow-00

ever, it will be uothor year- batore all t.bo plt.nnod new ahi pwt.71 &re oona-t.ruoted t.n4 before tho ~ rate can be roached. flhen th• ptt.k it roached, tb• aonthl,y coc.truction

CHART I - MERCH ANT SHIPS MONTHLY PRODUCTION RATE

1111111 ,,_.,.., ______ a, ....... , .... .... .... ~--- · ... --~ -.... .... CONFI DENTI Al • • • 7

•

NUll8ER 49

ratA aboul.d bo equ1Vll.J.ont to the completion ot lk>rt th.11n 4'0 thoueci.nd crose tone per aonth . 'Ibo i.nde.'Uls of .. re.b.ant ahip con1t.ruot.ion rtl)roeent. work d.ono raUi.or th4n c!ellvc:-1.ea of cOQpleted vt11ol1. Peak dclivel"ie1 of D01'9 c.hAn Lwo abi ps a dq rill not. bo l'HChod until tho tirat qu&rtor ot 19LJ. Scbodul.od ;n-odlletioa tor Jul.7 1941 llhould ra.1M the pr'Oduct.1.on rat.e ~ to 29, a~t.el.T W.. t.!Mt u b~ a.a it waa a YM1' &co,

Iil Chart. ~ th.ere 1• F'•&ented an index .. a.aurina total work done on conet.ructina merchant. lhipo in the United Stat.eo 11noo July 1940. At the end ot t.ho t1r1t •ix nonths (Dece:nbor 1940), onl.)t 3 ptrct:nt. o!

CHART 2 - MERCHANT SHIPS TOTAL PRODUCTION

000

••

••!-~~~~~~~~~~

JULY 2!, 1941

CONFIDENTI AL • • • I

the \101·k roquirtd to tulld. tho proJ eet.ed lO aW.ion tono or ahipa Nld boo.n finlthod. By th• end or June , thi1 Md J.ncre1.•td to 8 ;>orcent.. By next. Oot.obti• t.hJ.il index llhoul.d be 16 ptr<ient., or double the preHnt l•Yel. tho ~ c.c.lla rw con... atructinc 110re new t.onne.go tban ~ ent.tr. Merle.An occan- t;0in& aerchant. n...t prior w the ~et1Cy, Ti&, 10 alllion ion1 c~ to 7 .6 llil-11.on t.ona. t'h9 Job ay be u;:iected .. bo ._i.tod ..,.13 in 1944 ond should bo Ml! tiniohed bJ .,,. ldddl• or 1942-

On Jul.1 11 1940, it waa eat-1-1111.\t.d that the trnit-ed Stateo Alorcho.nt. Muino con•iated ot oomo 7 .6 aill.ion t.on• or ocee- going •hi ppJ.n&. Aa ho•t.Uit.1.01 1p:read, veseel• wore told or t.N.n1terred to Gr eat Brit.a.Jn. PM.u:i&, oto., for the l)WlloM ot nndllr1.nl a.14 ;o Gl"M t. Brit.in -.ad boe&UM or th• :Nlt.rl.cticn on ~rt.. can t1M.& T91ffl..s qain.st tftt.ericC ~roni. wai..t'&. Hence, deapii.. d.eU.,...t7 durin& the y.u ~ 620 ~ tiaod P'O#• to.no, on J une 30, 1941, the J.mer;J.ca.n fleet had. dropped to 6. 9 million tonl.

. The 1,s>eed at which A:wric&n rard11 c.an ~u-r1 out ocCM- going carao v.,ffll 11 .on• ot the deciaive tao ... t.or1 1n dot~•rain.1.na the fitl&l O\lt.CODI or ~ P."•ent nr. Pe&k .berican pro41.iot.1.on ICh.cNlod £or .fUl¥ 1~42 io 4'° th<•iuaml ..... • ib1a -be c~ w.ltb ltr1t.1*h, .ll.lled, and. oeu.U'&l. lbippin& losaee wbicb baTO .... rape! '2~ t.hOUMi:Dd ton& di.i.r-1.ns .,,. tir•~ hol£ of 1941. Plana aro curronl.J.7 bo.U.. daveloped to a peed up JJDerlcan pt'Oductlon, &M~ UI• peak rt.t.t .,,,Y' bt• reach~ o&rlier than would be 1.nd.ice.ted by the oohtdul.11 here ahotm.

CONFI OEN"TIAL • • • 8

NUMBER 49 COHFIOENTIAL 9

CAN THE UN ITED STATES AIO RUSSI A THROUGH EXPORTS ?

Llttl• l•••dl at1 1/d ~ • n r1 1 cA lu11 l1 f r o• t h• Unlt1d ~t1 c1 1 . 11 lu1• I • I • 1b/1 to Aold out until l • t• /1ll. t ~ • U11l1 1 d St11 1• . ,,, •• ,,. • , •• ,,,.,. ,. '"''"' ' •••• ,,.,tit• •••• ,,,,, ,, • .,,,,,,., '" ' ' <••••rr.

T be pro1p90ts ot 1-~t-t •conoe.1.c a.id to Rtl••i• tl"c. ~· Dni:t.ed 6tAte!I are l'loot brlcb\.

A\ lN!it. t.-o 80Dths 90Uld ~ ,.._ q\llred b e.tore Ut!lrial M1pp.d h-o9 our 11'est Coast could reach tht Ru.es1A.~ We1t.rn P'ront.

!Tm lt lbiaaai&:I rtli•t.l.nC• 1• ..W.\&JJ>ed ~ W.• -!od, Aaer1e&n a.id • Ul k liaittd by t.bt requirnente or our own forces and b7 thoSO of Great Brit.:a.J..n. HoWtTtr, the On!t.ecl St.at•• shou.W ~ able to ut.eQd !Nbst.&nU&l Mt.u'lal aid b7 t.h• lt.te r..u.

To the extent. that &id te poa11.ble, thrH uin que1tioaa e.ri•es (1) ll>Al •UJ"W a.1~ doN RuHU aMd? (2) Boe e&n !Neb aid bo ~ ... por\.ed 1.0 Ruasid ()) &>w """ Ru.1s1a pe.7 us tor 1tt

!hat M tWal &id do•• Ru1ai1 ausll. Ru.111&'• r eq\d.r•tnt..s fall 1"1.0 two "°""" (1) har oosl urCtnt 1.mttd.latt r11q.uir•ents are WJ>pliel ot tinlahad 11111 t.ary 9quipment tuch •e urpla.nts, ua1, '..w:iit.ion, MdJ.ca.l tuppl.iea, et.C • i (2) OTC' a locc:er t4n her r~t.s inclvd.e ll.1ppl.i•s ot rt.• aat.erl&l.t such •• ant1.aon7, copf>9r, z.inc, .ol7bdmu., Un, tunsett.o, niclctl, and copperi and lftduet.rial. equ.lpetnt tuch •• •ob.in• tool•, ai.Di.n1 and oil • tll

JULY 25, 194 1

•chinery, truck• &nd t.nct.o.re, n-il• t.T eiquipa•t. and suppl.101. ft• Uni~ St&t..1 1A the paat. ht.1 ~ pUod quantitl•• o! 90st or t.b.•• aa t.rlals to Ru.101& . Other required. mat·trWs, web al'! rubber and t.1.a, u:r bt obt&J.ntd troo the BritJ.lh F.opiro.

Ru.1e1a bas • 1C:a.lta it.-• bordw1 moat ot the re1ourcas tor a seltcoot.t.lnsd indu.11 tr1al1•9d nat1oo1 adequate for carryiAC Oil llOd.an:i war. rue. It. lacka, bo•• Yer, hoe 90 to 100 ~t or l ta requl.r•ct.s ot naw.t&l. 1"'\lbber, 90l)'bd.nu., n1a.l , tu.n11t.n , ant.1.aon7, and Un, and 11 aariou-1.7 detic1t.nt. 1n &l.ua.tm.., co~r, &nd 1.iD.c. In 1pi te or the ettort.1 of tb• 1-t~ ~ 71JAI'• to 'beccae seU-coa'tAl.n4d, iadlutriel • c;:ais-ent such •• aachine tool• ud cotl1tl'\lot1on aachinery 1• alto oeed-4 t.tld Ms been illport-4 b au.~ tt.&otial quantities bJ' Ru1t1.a in r.ceot 7'9U"•·

Ru111&1 1 iaport '"t(lU1r•enta M7 be 1nd1cat.cl b,' tbe principal t.%POrt1 to Ru11ia troa th• Unitld Stal<•· U•l.led $"'ta• Ql>Orta ~ 19)8 and 1940 ..... - 1" ... &0-CO.-PMJinl table.

Most or t.ht ut..rial1 J.Dcludtd 1" th• Ubl• ban - UDdar asport cootrol tor t.be pa1t six .eoetb1, and,

CONFIOENTI AL 9

NUMBER 49 CONF IDENTIAL • • • 10

PIWICIP.l.L OJUTED STAUS !IPORTS TO RIJSSU 1938 and 19.40

Aircraft. ~ puta Steel ahMta, black Sol• l•ther, bends , bl.eke, &ad sidea -t Cotton

1938 19.40 (lilll lo• Dollor•)

5.1 3.0

.!. !.

.3

0.111011.ne and otbU' petr<Jleua aotor tuel, 1n bulk Caainc: and oll~ine pi pe, seulese

.!. 2.2

.!.

.3 2.1 3.0 7.8 l.8 2.4

14.0 WU,ed copp•r in lngot:1 , bare, and other torae 8ra1111 and broaae, pU.tea t.nd ebeeta tcterW-eom.bw>Uon engtoea

.!. .7

5.0 2.0 1.2 3.s 2.7

23.S

&lgine acceaaoriea and pa.rt• Coo.at.ruction t.nd co.nveytng •chinel"J' W.U IU)d retinery a.o.chlaery Met&l-1fO:'Jd.D& aacMnery, ~ Other aachlnery and vehicle:1

.!. .1 .6

35.1 4.l ).5

.!. Not sepu"•t.el 1 clo.saitiod or Lesa t.b&a $100,000.

aa a reault, 1.1».ited Stctes uporte durin.a: the first tive months of 1941 were fJ.S .ail.lion below the exporte t or the corresponding period ot 1940. Since t.he preoent Ruaeo-GeJ"'JMLn CCIDruct. Sto.rted, hoWl!l't'l!IT 1 export. r.strictiona hav9 been lifted oa SC*e u.teri&le (eucb a e. ucl\.1.ne tools) needed by Rustlia.

Jia.w •tt£1&1 aid bt t.ranaoorted to Ruasial 'nle O.S.S.R. h&e r ·equeattd .xport •id t"rOID the Uo.it-4 States, and UT&ni•enta are btiot: aacte to UJ)ed.ite sbJ.pmeot:s. eo .. ever, aateriala • hicb may be epared trom our on detenae J>rOIP'b and our obUgat.1000 to• Aid to Brital.:l .W be d.i!ficult to deliver to the O.S.S.R. Four poaaibl• routee arei (1 ) tbt 'tr6lle-S1btr1an Ra.iln.11 VU. VlM.1-voatok, is the cbiet route by 9'hicb

the o.s.s.R. carri ea on its tor•isn trade at preaect. It ta.k•s tl-oa 6 to 10 • •eke t.o ah.ip product.a tt-C. the On1t9d St.tea to Eu.ropean RuaeU br th.111 route. It 1 t &bould be closed, three alternate routes hav1 bew .su.aa•at.ed. (2) Ono suu••ted alternate rout<J 1 a by...,. ot ea.bay. !'bia r equirea transsb.ii:-eot. by truck about • tbouaand ail•s 1-croa1 th• Xb,Jbtr Paaa to the n.o.rest Rueai&n railheadJ then tranaah1Jmeot aoa• 1 , 500 mil•• to th• front. ()) Anotb•~ 8\l&ll St.cl route ia bJ' w&7 ot tbt P1r1iaD Cult to S..sra, and theoc.e ocroas I.ran. Thia •eans eom• SCIO or 600 alles by rail to th• C.1p1an s .. , then tr&ntth.1.'*°"t. b7 ntv to th• northwest corner ot the Caepi a.n, and t1na.l,17 t.raneahii-ect b7 r ail tor J)0111bl.7 • thouMU'.14 allee in Ruisi&, (4) There i a al.IO

CONFI OENTI Al .. • 10

. '

NUMBER 49

the nortlMirD •ter route either to llllrunak or to Arcb&n1&l and th.,ce 111 rail or canal 90Utlmard. TIU• rOGte la ope oalJ a r.. -th• or the ;rear. 'I'll• railro&d rz... ........,. to Len1n.,...s ii 1n the pree.,t coabet 90lle. Othor &lt.arn&te route• are atUl leoa praoU.e&l.

Hor can llqf!!it w us tor ai4T Since the caotllct with ~1 ~ pn, restriction• on credi t e or -9'0 llillion which R>ueit bas 1D the

JULY 2!!, 1941


lJll1 tad State1 ba•e bee lilted. R>uait produce• about *175 a11llon or aold ~ and 1t 1. reporte4 that ah• baa ooaparat1Tel.7 larl• r.• .,..... (poulbl7 •i billion) which could be utilised to P9J' tor ezporta. Abo, loane alsbt be eocared b7 coDtracte tor tuture del.1•817 or ut.rlala, such ae unpnue. '!'be prcll>l• or r1na1101n1 aid to Rllesla would not - to be part1cularl7 dlttic:W.t, ..... 1t det.... aid 1• 110t pronded.

CONFIDENTIAL • • • II

NUMBER 49 COHFIOENTIAL

DEFENSE Pl20fJ12ESS SEl21ES

lllIDD IUDI ~ ,_. -... ., ... *"-~ t .. w.i • ..u .. ...,.....

......... !'etAJ. 1:1 artu.b ........ ......... Tow l:X lr-1 iui. or!Hrt PllMI pq, •• , 1.n"1, 1\0,

CA.$ OU'7"'WD'TI

la pq, ..... \n.ftl. , 1'4. b ~lt.1.* ........ w ••.• "'~· .w. ,.......

01, &C f l

JJJllU,IJI, '8lllltlll, r.c. -......... c...a G.a---.w l!'l.U. Qlln 6 PAm --COll\.l'UW Ca- dl.N.r.-t.

cawa. (Iilial. J.-ftl ~> -,,..,,.... Ouib. ,, t .. _.,.,.,,_ -C<.euuw c..•••-'h TObl. uxncas ,.,.,.,..

CclD\190"-C.,JtdU~\.t

"'" ....... _,,,l_lt

'1llDtUL ...... '

(• U.U. MUA,.. " llil.,.)

'1.JSJ 6,072

i, .• u ,cr1s ' '2,1': .I 49,6ot .R )0. '7)4 .I '°·"'

I. )11,C»S • 4S,9>9 R 47,.l.16 .a ,..,,1J6

"""' l S,nG u,~u Jl 2f>,Ol2 l ,14? ""·"' 17, Wf a 22.,,, , .. ,. .. ,,.. U ,4)1 Jl 21,'96

•··•· J: '·"" x •,791 .I 1 ,fln .•. L :>,C!Mo r. '·""' =~::: m .r. ,,113 I. '·°" .... H-

,,,.. ..... '·"" JI U ,4C>S Rll,,.,.'1 l U,9''1 ... J,IJ,J: '·''' a •,w a..&. L tU l. l , JJ1 .a l ,"'9

.. , • • l.19 1 •. ~ '·""' ,. 01'

6, ,., ..... .,. a 6,.uo .a , ,000

•W>

a•,• Jl6,)t6

.... '·''"' '·""' l 1,0.U. J_ •,OSl z•·* "" :1,'11 ,,.., ''·"' . •. .... <.,. . .,. 'm 2,1.U >,'111 .I J,925

2 ' ·"' • >.m

"' ..... '·'" a 2,uo •... ... l t i,S)2 l 1,1:19

3,9J S 17, J90 :til>,107 JI. 29.1)4 .a'°·~ Lt'°'"" ,,..,., u ,ns JJ, UZ a19,• ..... ~ 2,,,, ' '·'°' a ,,a • 01.1 ... an 1 1 et U.. •1- e/ U-.. -UI or ..ear ....,..'- 1.aillbl• • '--• .I ~1'7 dai... L a.n.id cW.\11, • ••• OU.a-" aft.UA-U..

{e..ua-t •Md. N•J

JULY 25, t 94t CONFIDENTIAL

12

12

. . NUMBER 49 COHFIOENTIAL • • •

CHART I - ENACTED DEFENSE PROGRAM* ANO CONTRACT AWARDS FOR DEFENSE PURPOSES

JUNE II, 1940-JULY 19, 19411

13

BILLI ON 00LLAA$ BILLION OOL.LAR$ 60 60

50 -

40 r - •o

•

30 30

20

- 1 __ ' ' / ,1 ,,..-

--PAO ORAM --y-J_ I .-<---r··r ,,,_."" CONTlti\CT$ + PAYROLL _, ... .- I I

,- LJ.-+-r --' - ,1 - --=)---r -- - · I I _.-;- I CASH OISIURSE1MEHTS

' ! I I I 0

20

10 10

0 J t.1n Jt.11 •t.10 Sept Oct Nov O•e Jon Feb Mor 4pt Mor Jun Jut

1940 1941

H tln1r1d Stott• ond Br itish Proorotnt. l Rtvhtd.

JULY 2S, 1941 CONFIDENTIAL · · • 13

' . NUMBER 4 9 CONFI DENTIAL 14

ot.nlSI '1IOCiiU88 111118 {OC.~)

'"'° 19'1 - ,_, ... -_.,,. • UU.O. lioU&n \0 d&W . -- .,, 9'7 """' .I l,90S .1 1,905 .a 1,905 C:C.\n.oW •.•. "'

.,. ... ~ cu:b dU~W

·~· .t l.}1. .... • 2S4

lllllUS'!KUL 1.LCIL.-OQIS. 1 Gtt.1• UAI. 18Utl -- )IJ 2,161 .[ ,,())0 .a '·''° JI $. S28 R S,'61

C:O.\ft•W UD 1,51) t,ilS 2 t ,167 c..m••·t= ---~ •... . ,., HOO . .,.,

IJ':WS11WJ. ' J.C!ll.l'l'lll-O:ll&11DO!'lOI' at.Lr -- · ·~ L 1,6a7 I. l ,607 a 1,60?

Col:l\n.GW •···· •.•. YU. J.A pla.c. .... I. 575 .... ....

l'Olml1 lllrO!Si .. IOktD"lt.l'ltCIUi - .., ""' "'" 2 ),6~ R ) ,709 .I ).'10t .......... ,,. ""' """ R t,~.J.(

C&ab diiilll&r-~ 10 . ,,, Z. l,2'17 .1 1,469

"""""" -- "' ,.,.

"" ,., ... , .....

Ccrii.¥-&cw 11 .••• ... "" ,., ..,

"" O-tilld.Utiw-w o •.• • o • .a. "···· ...... imx::uu.J Pll!Xi!W! - .. ,.. .,.. ..... .... . ...

Ccotnc-r.. so ,.,. ... . "" C..Nd.U~u o ••• ... ' '" .. '"' cmmt !'lQOl1'QW1' • 8UPPLlJ:5 -- .. , '" ... . ....,. 1 1,il,D .a l,U.O c.~~"- •.... l)} ,., .,,, Cu2'i d.UN:r._w lhl • ... l. MS . ,.. .. , ro-..1

-~ ... "'' 1,llO JI 2,)45 ~ i,,,, a ~.,ss e...a lll.aw,._14 Q , 1, L S)l L 1,00 .aJ.,m - .,~ P'r'Qgfta "" .,. a l ,SLL JI. 1,84( .a l,1144

c....n d.U.b.IJ<•-t• 11 ••• . ,., . .., .. ,,. , . .,. -- 17' "' "" .. "" .. ,., . '" O.Q d.1.llb.1i'-.-:iu o ••• · ~ .,,.. . ,.,,

1SUSS1STD1C1, TMYJL. no.

........ ., .. l,1'4 '·"' • J,924 .a ) ,924 a J,924 C.911 d.Utlw'-t.• ..... ... L 2i;. • 249

• Dl'YI ,_,,_ &• o.t UM! •lo•• of \he -~ 01' •-.ic IWUtJ\ •TllllAbla ........ J. Pnlla.l.niuy ~~. I. ?tnUlld daw. 11••• D!l,W, DO\ a~bla.

(Coa\.!JuMd on rwon ~·) •

JULY 2~. 1941 CONFt OENTI AL 14

. •• . NUMBER 49 CONFIDENTIAL 15

l9ml 1'IOClam lam (C.\'--4)

I ....

I '!!! ,.,,, ,...,,1 .., ,_ f J.:-b .. ~1'

t!YI at '!9!= • lift.IC. PC11 C8T. t11 ncmm Clll.1UM ..ua.n ._ .. ,.,. ..... I •.m, I ""'"'""'· ""'"'"' "*" '1'74 ,_,,,,_..,, .,..U• hlDd.. 199 ....... ... __ ,,.,

( ...... fll ...u.illc .UW) •

-.u-.- ...... , ...... ,, .,.,, .. , .... ,.. ....... C..~i. .. v..ci. a...,... )6,191 'r.1: , ))4 "'·''° 11,421 .,,ns c..wveu..~w 1,:114 14141.l 21,M ,,, .. 17,•~

PNOaln' CIRTI7JCATD t lnllfl u.i {..-..~.

t•w.1 .......s I ""-I "'·'"I ni.m I ,,, .... &Ol f Ct•• o ... .wtur (llllUoa 4oll.ar• \.9 ... ,., •

AJDd ... Pl"o(,_ ..... •.m l.),l), a 20,,,, J 20,}ja Jt 20,)S2 "-""' ... .. P"1'hll - ..... '·"'" R M>.OIJ C..i.f.Y----U .,. L 1,)4J 'J,))2 ., .... • 4,200

&Aft - 1'NC:na ..... l.O,.,,. U,6D 2.U,'-U 1 U,'*7 a U ,967 C..1.r'9•'-t~~ i,,.u S,9'1 '.l" J: 9,964 c..• ~·""*"-t.t .. i:. l.0)1 i:. :f,0:0 JI. :l:, )i2 • a,sa:s

..,,.,_ - "'°' 19,10) ... .,.. J2 ''·"'° .a )4,)l.9 JI )4,)19 CG:lt.nt i.i .. Nntll i.~ U..9)' ...... a ~·°'' c.a '1abilr- Le i:. 2 .. m .. .,., • •,190 • • • 1'2$

~.ms~2 _ ... ? ,000 ? ,000 """' 7,000 Alloo..U ou """ .a 4,771 00.~•'- .... a l ,'92 C.•d~Y <7 . .. ...

a.uu,nu CXICIUl9 -- ... ""' '"" a 1, 1).£ .R 1,1" .. 1,151; C-on t..rt.c~ •.•. a •.•• &10 .. l.O C.11114111~\· • H> '1J? RU6 ""' ps MP ptpuem -- ..... l ,'67 2 2,"4 J: l ,"19il a 1 ,194 ._.,_..,

71J 1, Ul .1.1,UJ o.• U.l;w ..... \1 " " r..n a''' .a ,.,, MZ1t• C11DD1 - ..... , ....

~ '·* ., .... • ),6)11 I J,6)1 eoau..e\41 .... , .... " >1692' ... m o..•cu~ "' L .a.,SJI 1.1.m . '· a 1,us cmu:a ,t.ost1'.I -- ,.,

'·""' ..... U,431 a i,,., I l,tl9 ......... ,. "' r= .,,.

0.A 4S•\I • • •1.LI D )4, . ,., • Dlk u. .. .r ,,._ eio.. ._, ~ ._\O w ~ ... ,.A ..... u.i.i.. a.·w .• 1 mu.au ... ..,. .. "', l. IW+'J.Md iJ.\.a,

~Coa.Ua.- Oft MU pe. .. } •••• O.k .. , ~ft.U.\l•·

JULY 25, 1941 CONFIDENTIAL 15

'

NUMIKR 49

PW:IDDCT'ICll MD IJmll

IWY.17 a lrpl.uet 0.-.\ ..s.c.:u. 0-.\ ... ..i. ,,,.,,,,. ""' ...... t.o\e.1 Pt•U llJ"lill1U7 MU..U.r&t\ rWu:"T~ ,_. ......... , *1.;19

,.,...,._,,,,._ lWW')' • l..J'pl.-.. ca.Ilia\ •el:i1e.U1 C:-.\ •••Ml.# ,.,..,.~ iuu, M W n.w...w.. MU..t.n:n.h. ,_. t..t."'7~ ,... .. ......, .....

O, I, Mmm:ID

.WWrya~ 0-.\ ft!Uel.M c..a.t ... ...i.. • ..i.a ..... .,,._,,,,. ~. ~ n.w...w.. ... ~""-i-Wt.11\.1'7~,_. .. ,..,.., ehl~

........ ...._ .... .-.......... -" ....,..,_ --0-t'\• c..,.\lt..U ~ 8'tlpbat.. ...... ,... -·-'""" t..i·t~ .....

COfolFID£NTIAL

,_ .... 111Hl rf!!i1t

lJ.O ... , ll.4 .t ,,,,, .... • )Q,1 21.2 .t )l.t

"·' .... )1.2 ' )).9 •...•. .... , ... .t ,.,, •... "' U.J ' u.o ..... 1f ,"t .... ' •• l ..... n.• ,._. ' "·' .... ..., ""' u.o (~, -.), &UM J.i;, 1960', flNCl'aa ~w...ioct

o.s ..... I ,.2 : J.O • ., n.a. ' ' ' 7. J l. 9 .2 s.s ,,, 12.J. ! J,J.4 ..... . •·• u .1 1: i..o -· 1.0 '-' £ s .1 ....... '·' 1 •. ., .t '°·' ...... ,,, 19.7 .t zz.o O.j 4,0 7.2 I.)

(l!Wl.11•• •• ot 11\ ot -ui, v. I , r11e1~i.•J.OO)

"° I 1.6 Od·1 .... AU.1 •... "' Od • 1.0 1.1

"·' ..... •.•.. '"' ,, .. •.•. .., . .. ... , u.1 ... ... •.•.. • •• 9,7 •... .., . .•.. 1 •• u .• ..... , .. 111.a • ... .. LJ.l ..... ••• G·•• . .•. 49,0

0

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JULY 2 $, 1941 CONFIDE NTIAL • · · II

NUMBER 49 CONFIOENTIAL 17

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JULY 20, 1941 CONFIOENTI AL . .. 17

,, t • ,,. NUMBER 49 CONFIDENTIAL 18

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JULY 25, 1941 CONFIDENTIAL ••• 18

president's secre tr rv's fjle subject fil• production … · ot training pla.nea was...

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