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Preventing Severe Conduct Problems in School-Aged Youth: Findings from the Fast Track Project
Bob McMahonDepartment of PsychologyUniversity of Washington
November 25, 2009
“EARLY STARTER”DEVELOPMENTAL PATHWAY
Preschool/Early School-Age Onset
Overt and Covert Behaviors
High Degree of Continuity
Poor Prognosis
Enormous Societal Cost“Career Criminal” = $1.3 million (Cohen, 1998)
“EARLY STARTER” PATHWAY TO ANTISOCIAL BEHAVIOR
Preschool Years
Preschool Years
Early EducationYears
Early EducationYears
Early Adolescence
Early Adolescence
• Early child, family, and community risk factors
• Early child, family, and community risk factors
• Poor school readiness in cognitive, social, and emotional domains
• Poor school readiness in cognitive, social, and emotional domains
• Academic failure
• Peer rejection• Social coping
deficits• Adult support/
supervision
• Academic failure
• Peer rejection• Social coping
deficits• Adult support/
supervision
• Deviant peers• Poor adult
monitoring• Alienation/
depression
• Deviant peers• Poor adult
monitoring• Alienation/
depression
Increased and Diversified Antisocial Behavior
School Entry
School Entry
Preschool Years
Elementary and Middle School Years
Adulthood
Adolescence• Serious antisocial activity• School drop-out and failure• Substance use• Early/risky sexual activity• Comorbid psychiatric disorders
DEVELOPMENTAL MODEL
Preschool Years
Elementary and Middle School Years
Adolescence
Adulthood• Psychological problems• Criminal behavior• Poor educ/occup adjustment• Marital disruption• Increased mortality
DEVELOPMENTAL MODEL
IMPLICATIONS OF THE DEVELOPMENTAL MODEL FOR
INTERVENTION DESIGN
Multiple Skill Domains
Multiple Socialization Support Systems
Sustained, Well-Integrated
Developmentally and Culturally Informed
The Fast Track ProjectConduct Problems Prevention
Research Group
Robert J. McMahonUniversity of Washington
Karen L. Bierman
Mark T. GreenbergPennsylvania State University
Kenneth A. Dodge
John D. CoieDuke University
Ellen E. PinderhughesTufts University
John E. LochmanUniversity of Alabama
FAST TRACK FUNDING
Fast Track is funded by:
• National Institute of Mental Health
With additional support from:
• National Institute on Drug Abuse
• Department of Education
• Center for Substance Abuse Prevention
School-Entry Transition
Continuing Support
Middle School Transition
Continuing Support
FAST TRACK TIMELINE
YEAR (1991-1993)
Screening
Implementation
Outcome/Mediators
INTERVENTION
(2005-2007)
ASSESSMENT
Current Age of Sample
Grade
Kg 1-3 4-5 6-7 8-9 10 11-12 20 22
AGE
SCREENING AND SELECTION
Teacher Screen 9,594(54 schools, 3 years)
Eligible - Parent Screen 3,600(Top 38%)
Parent Screen 3,267 (91%)
Total Screen Score (T+P) 1,027
Grade 1 at Core School 968 (94%)
High Risk Sample 891 (92%)Control 446 Intervention 445
SAMPLE (4 SITES AND 3 COHORTS)
High-Risk (n = 891)
445 Intervention/446 Control Random Assignment by School 47% Caucasian, 51% African-American,
3% Other 69% Boys, 31% Girls
Normative Community Comparisons (n = 387)
MULTIPROBLEM ASPECTS OF HIGH-RISK SAMPLE
Family Context
• Single Parent/Inappropriate Partner
• Family Conflict/Violence
• Substance Abuse
• Personal Adjustment Problems
• “Insular”
• Economically Disadvantaged
Neighborhood Context
• High-Risk, Unsafe Neighborhoods
ASSESSMENT MODEL Annual Assessments
Multiple Informants Parent, Teacher, Youth, Peers
Multiple Methods Ratings, Direct Observations, Achievement Tests, Psychiatric Interviews, Sociometrics, School Records, Court Records
Standard Measures Shared with Other National Studies CBC/TRF/YSR, National Youth Survey, C-DISC-4, SACA
Elementary-School Phase– School-Entry Transition (Grades 1 - 2)
– Maintenance and Support (Grades 3 - 5)
Adolescent Phase– Middle School Transition (Grades 5 - 7)
– Maintenance and Support (Grades 8 - 10)
PHASES OF INTERVENTION
AREAS OF INTERVENTION(Elementary School Phase)
AcademicAchievement
Child Coping/ProblemSolving
Home-SchoolPartnership
PeerRelations
Parenting &Socialization
ClassroomAtmosphere
INTERVENTION COMPONENTS(Elementary School Phase)
FamilyHome Visiting
Enrichment ProgramParent Groups
Friendship GroupsParent-Child Sharing Time
SchoolPATHSTutoring
Peer Pairing
STAFFING RESPONSIBILITIES(Elementary School Phase)
FAMILY COORDINATOR (FC)• Conducts Parent Groups, Parent-Child Sharing Time,
Home Visits
EDUCATIONAL COORDINATOR (EC)• Conducts Friendship Groups
• Consults with Teachers• Supervises Tutors
CLASSROOM TEACHER• Teaches PATHS Lessons
TUTOR• Conducts Reading Tutoring and Peer Pairing
IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES(Elementary School Phase)
Attendance• Flexible Group Times• Familiar Location• Transportation• Child Care• Parents Are Paid Staff Members• Ethnically-Matched Staff• Social Support Among Group Members
STRUCTURE OF ADOLESCENTPREVENTIVE INTERVENTIONS
Standard Interventions(Grades 5-8)
Individualized Interventions (Grades 5-10)
Standard Interventions (Grades 5-8)• All Youth/Families
• Monthly Curriculum-Based Parent/Youth Groups
• Normative Challenges of Adolescence
• Middle/H.S. Transition Support
• Individualized Interventions (Grades 5-10)
STRUCTURE OF ADOLESCENT PREVENTIVE INTERVENTIONS
Standard Interventions (Grades 5-8)
Individualized Interventions (Grades 5-10)• Assessment of Risk/Protective Factors
• Individualized Skill-Building and Support
Services
STRUCTURE OF ADOLESCENT PREVENTIVE INTERVENTIONS
STAFFING RESPONSIBILITIES(Adolescent Phase)
YOUTH COORDINATOR (YC)• Individualized, Criterion-Based Prevention Services• Curriculum-Based Youth and Parent Groups • Home Visits
VOCATIONAL COORDINATOR• Arrange Workshops/Field Trips/Job Shadows
MENTOR• One-on-One Recreational Activities with Youth
TUTOR• Conducts Academic Tutoring
RESEARCH PARTICIPATION -SAMPLE x SITE (% IN YEAR 11)
Site Intervention Control Normative Durham 94 92 88
Nashville 80 71 77
Pennsylvania 85 75 81
Seattle 83 83 84
Total 85 80 82
DID STRATEGIES WORK?PARTICIPATION IN
PARENT AND CHILD GROUP
% Attended % Attending > 50% Sessions
Grade Parent Child Parent Child
1 96 98 79 90
2 88 92 79 87
3 80 86 78 84
4 73 82 68 80
INTERVENTION EFFECTS
Data Analytic Strategy
“Intent To Intervene” Model • “Once Randomized, Always Analyzed”
• Regardless of Extent to Which Families Participated in Intervention, Considered Part of Intervention Sample for Analyses
KEY QUESTIONS
Does Fast Track Work?
How Does It Work?
Does It Work Equally Well for Everyone?
How Much Does It Cost?
Modest Intervention Effects in Multiple Domains Through Elementary School
• Both high-risk (and universal) samples
• Effect sizes strongest following initial intensive prevention efforts
• Small to moderate effect sizes maintained with sustained prevention support
DOES FAST TRACK WORK? Elementary School (Grades 1-5)
DOES FAST TRACK WORK?Middle School
Do Not Find the Broad Effects on Aggressive and Externalizing Behavior Seen in Elementary School
Lower Levels of Hyperactive Behaviors (Behavioral Inhibition) at Grade 7
More Deviant Peer Involvement in Grades 7 and 8
CPPRG (in press)CPPRG (in press)
Classroom-level Analyses
Peer Sociometrics • Aggression, activity-disruption
Classroom Atmosphere
Prediction of Outcome• Quality of teacher implementation• Dosage (# of lessons) not strong predictor
DOES FAST TRACK WORK? PATHS Universal Intervention
End of Grade 1
CPPRG (1999b)
Youth present throughout Grades 1,2, and 3
Aggression (T,P), Academic Engagement (T), Social Competence (T), Hyperactive/ disruptive (P)
Teacher Ratings Moderated by School Environment• Stronger in less disadvantaged schools• ↑ baseline aggression – ↑ effects on aggression
Peer Ratings Moderated by Gender• Effects limited to boys
DOES FAST TRACK WORK? PATHS Universal Intervention
End of Grade 3
CPPRG (in press)
KEY QUESTIONS
Does Fast Track Work?
How Does It Work?
Does It Work Equally Well for Everyone?
How Much Does It Cost?
MEDIATION OF GRADE 4 OUTCOMES
CPPRG (2002d)
Grade 3 Mediators Grade 4 OutcomesHomeParenting Behavior Change Aggressive/Oppositional
Behavior
School Authority Acceptance Peer Social Preference
Problems/Prosocial
Behavior Change
Social Cognition Hostile Attributions Association with Substance Using Peers (p< .10)
HOW DOES IT WORK?
“Domain-Specific” Effects
Must Address Each Setting in Which
the Child Lives
Suggests Importance of
Multicomponent Intervention
KEY QUESTIONS
Does Fast Track Work?
How Does It Work?
Does It Work Equally Well for Everyone?
How Much Does It Cost?
Works Comparably for:• Boys and girls
• European- and African-American children
• Urban and rural communities
DOES IT WORK EQUALLY WELL FOR EVERYONE?
Elementary School
DOES IT WORK EQUALLY WELL FOR EVERYONE?
Elementary School
No Consistent Moderation by:• Demographics
- gender, race, site, cohort
• Child variables - IQ
• Family variables - marital status, SES, parent mental health/substance use
• Neighborhood variables - poverty, instability, quality
HOWEVER – By Grade 9, Effects Depend
on Child’s Severity of Risk as Measured
10 Years Earlier During Kindergarten!
DOES IT WORK EQUALLY WELL FOR EVERYONE?
Antisocial Behavior
Highest-Risk Youth (top 3% at Kindergarten)
Much Less Likely To:• Have an externalizing disorder diagnosis
- Oppositional defiant disorder, conduct disorder,
attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)
• Engage in self-reported antisocial behavior
No Intervention Effect for Moderate-Risk Youth
DOES IT WORK EQUALLY WELL FOR EVERYONE?
Antisocial Behavior in Grade 9
CPPRG, 2007CPPRG, 2007
INTERVENTION EFFECTSGrade 9
DISC Diagnosis of Conduct Disorder
(CPPRG, 2007)*p<.05 (Intervention x Risk Level)
0.04
INTERVENTION EFFECTSGrade 9
DISC Diagnosis of “Any” Externalizing Disorder
(CPPRG, 2007)*p<.05 (Intervention x Risk Level)
0.13
INTERVENTION EFFECTSGrade 9
Self-Reported Antisocial Behavior
(CPPRG, 2007)*p<.05 (Intervention x Risk Level)
1.66
INTERVENTION EFFECTSLifetime Prevalence of Conduct Disorder
(through Grade 12)
0.12
CPPRG (under review)CPPRG (under review)
YOUTH ARRESTS
Court Record Data Collected Annually
• 6th grade – age 19
• Juvenile and adult court records
Searched County of Residence and Surrounding Counties
Lifetime Severity Weighted Frequency
• Juvenile arrests• Adult arrests• Self-reported delinquency CPPRG (in press)
ARREST RECORD OUTCOMES
Juvenile Arrests• Court-recorded: odds = 71% of
odds for controls
• Moderate-severity arrests: 76% rate of controls
• Onset of arrest: odds = 77% of controls
CPPRG (in press)
ARREST RECORD OUTCOMES
High-Severity Self-reported Delinquent Behavior• Onset: odds = 82% of controls
High-Severity Adult Arrests• Frequency: Highest-risk youth –
47% fewer arrests compared to controls
• Onset: Effects for ¾ sites; iatrogenic for Nashville
CPPRG (in press)
KEY QUESTIONS
Does Fast Track Work?
How Does It Work?
Does It Work Equally Well for Everyone?
How Much Does It Cost?
HOW MUCH DOES IT COST?
Each Chronic Criminal Costs Society >$1.3 Million (Cohen, 1998)
Fast Track Costs About $5,800/Year Per Child ($58,000 Total)
Cost-Effective for Highest-Risk Children (Top 10%)
• Conduct disorder diagnosis • Index crimes
Foster et al. (2006)Foster et al. (2006)
Modest Intervention Effects in Multiple Domains Through Elementary School• Both high-risk and universal samples
• Effect sizes strongest following initial intensive prevention efforts
• Small to moderate effect sizes maintained with sustained prevention support
In Contrast to Elementary School, Minimal Intervention Effects in Middle School
SUMMARY
Mediation Analyses Indicate Domain-Specific Effects • Suggests importance of multicomponent
intervention
Effects Generalizable Across Gender, Ethnicity, Site, Etc. During Elementary and Middle School
SUMMARY (cont.)
However, During High School, Emerging Moderation of Effects Based on Severity of Initial Risk for Some Outcomes
Strong Intervention Effects on Conduct Disorder Diagnosis Through Grade 12 for Highest-Risk Youth
Strong intervention Effect for Juvenile Arrests
SUMMARY (cont.)
Although Expensive, Fast Track is Cost-Effective for Most At-Risk Youth
Not Only in Terms of ↓ Dx of Externalizing Disorders, But ↓ Use of General Health and Outpatient MH Services During Adolescence (Jones et al., in press)
SUMMARY (cont.)
CURRENT/FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Continued Analysis of Intervention Effects Through Age 20
Economic Analyses
Analysis of DNA/Identification of Candidate Marker Genes
Contact Sample at Age 25
Dissemination Efforts
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Fast Track website:
http://fasttrackproject.org
Contact:Bob McMahon Phone: (206) 685-9127University of Washington FAX: (206) 685-3944Department of PsychologyBox 351525Seattle, WA 98195-1525
Email: [email protected]