Safe Cities 1

Principles and components of urban disaster risk reduction

Session 2World Bank Institute

Fouad Bendimerad, Ph.D., P.E

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Evolution of disaster risk management

FROM ….

Product approach Exclusive science/ technical

approach Risk assessment equals risk

management Risk as uni-dimensional Risk as an agency-specific

issue Risk as a sectoral issue

…. TO

Process approach Inclusive participatory

approach Risk assessment is part

of risk management Risk as multi-

dimensional Risk as a whole-of-

government issue Risk as a whole-of-

society issue

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From response management to risk management

Shifting from response management to risk management requires:

An understanding of the risk faced by each community and each segment of society

An understanding of the factors of vulnerability of society and the built environment

A shift from reactive action to pro-active engagement

Cross-organizational and cross-agency communication and coordination

Communicating and planning with communities A long term view anchored on sustainability

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From disaster management to disaster risk reduction

Disaster Risk Management takes place when and if: Integrated within the agenda of each function of the

local government Coordinated and supported by the central government

and governed by clear policies It incorporates the participation of the active agents of

society Such integrated approach achieves disaster risk

reduction through Systematic implementation Sustainability Progressive action Cumulative contribution

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Cross-organizational integration

Integration of disaster management within each local government function, in coordination with the central authorities and in partnership with the active agents of society.

Civil Society

Media BusinessAcademia

Central Authorities

CBO’sNGO’s

Urban Planning

Building andConstruction

Public Works

Emergency Management

Social Services

Financial Planning

Local Government

Public Safety

Education & Rec.

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Cross-organizational integration (cont.)

Each agency of the local government should be trusted with a disaster management obligation as part of its function. For example,

Urban Planning – Integration of risk factors in urban plans; long-term risk mitigation planning; Building and Construction – Enforcement of building code; coordination with construction industry; Public Works – Enforcement of building codes; special provisions for lifeline and infrastructure protection;

continuity of essential services and post-emergency access Social Services – Community outreach and capacity enhancement; victim needs; problem of the poor and under- privileged; stakeholders’ involvement

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Cross-organizational integration (cont.)

Coordination of disaster management activities should be centralized within one organization (e.g., civil protection), which will perform: Overall coordination and advocacy functions; Community participation functions; Coordination with central/provincial governments; And performance evaluation.

If such a structure does not exist, it should be created.

A high-level policy coordination committee representing all agencies and other stakeholders should provide oversight and develop a policy framework geared towards mitigation.

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Integrated risk management components

Disaster Risk Assessment

Provides the Parameters

for…

Development of Community Resilience

Integrated Disaster Risk Management

Preparedness and

Awareness

Mitigation and

Prevention

Response and Recovery

Institution- Building

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Integrated DRM components (cont.)

IDRM should be managed as an integrated set of functions relatedto four basic components: Preparedness and Awareness Raising; Mitigation and Prevention (including financial

protection); Response and recovery planning; Institutional building;

The implementation of these components typically resides within multiple agencies of the local government

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Mechanisms for implementation of IDRM

Two mechanisms are required: Policy-setting by high-level inter-agency

coordination committee

Coordination and performance evaluation by a singleagency (e.g., civil protection)

The design of IDRM action plans should be based on parameters provided by Disaster Risk Assessment.

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Disaster risk assessment (“DRA”)

DRA consists of the task of quantifying the potential impacts of hazard events on buildings, infrastructure, population, and institutions.

DRA also includes the interpretation of impacts on the community, institutions and organizational processes, and on the available resources.

Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA) is the first undertaking and an essential step in the disaster risk management process.

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DRA – consequence analysis

An inter-disciplinary team representing the key functions of the local government should perform “consequence analysis” of risk analysis results to: Interpret the impact on institutions and

customers of key services;

To understand capacity and resource gaps; To identify policy implications; To get familiar with risk parameters and

constraints.

Consequence analysis should include preparation of a communication strategy with the central government, representatives of civil society and general public.

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Disaster risk assessment (cont.)

DRA enables government and communities to understand: Potential human and material losses and their

spatial and sectoral distributions

Impact on critical facilities and functions Needs and gaps Disaster “demand” versus the available “supply”

DRA is also an excellent tool for: Communicating risk parameters to different

stakeholders Exchanging data and information Forcing transparency

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DRA techniques

Scenario (or Deterministic) Analysis: A potential event is defined to have happened

today and its impact assessed for a defined spatial area.

Probabilistic Analysis: All potential impacts are integrated and the impact

corresponding to a specific return period is assessed (e.g., 1-in-100 years event).

Risk Indexing/Mapping: Key indicators of risk are aggregated in order to

set priorities. Risk Matrix Analysis:

Several risks are put in a matrix to obtain a visual two-dimensional display of the “ranking” of the risk for a region.

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DRA – illustration (earthquake scenario)

87

90

Key

Electric Substation

Gas Pipelines

Broadcasting Station

Power Generation Plant

Potable Water Facility

Oil Pipelines

0.40 - 0.50

0.50 - 0.60

PGA Distribution [g]

0.60 - 0.70

0.20 - 0.30

0.30 - 0.40

0.30 - 0.40

0.30 - 0.40

0 10

Kilometers

20

Estimate Ground Shaking/Wind speed

LATERAL BUILDING DISPLACEMENT

STRONGER CONSTRUCTION

WEAKER CONSTRUCTION

MAJORSHAKING

MODERATESHAKING

MINORSHAKING

LA

TE

RA

L B

UIL

DIN

G F

OR

CE

BU

ILD

ING

WE

IGH

T

NONE SLIGHT MODERATE EXTENSIVE COMPLETE

MODULE 3Physical Damage

Loss of FunctionalitySOURCE

SCENARIOMAGNITUDE

ATTENUATION

LOCAL SITE-SOIL

By Geo-Unit

MODULE 2Earthquake Scenario Definition

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1960 1970 1980 1990 200 2010 2020

Urban

Rural

Demographic & Economy

MODULE 1Exposure Database

Results Report and Display

Ground MotionGround Failure

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DRA: scenario analysis

The ability to estimate future losses from scenario earthquakes enables communities to anticipate the consequences of future disasters and to develop plans and strategies for reducing risk.

Disaster Response

Disaster Mitigation

Disaster Preparednes

s

Assessment: Scenario Analysis

Buildings &Critical Facilities

Industrial Facilities

Lifelines &Transportati

on

Social Losses

Disaster Recovery

Risk Transfer

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Disaster Response

Disaster Mitigation

Disaster Preparednes

s

Disaster Recovery

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DRA: “worst-case” scenario

Different scenarios should be “simulated” to develop a comprehensive understanding of the potential impacts.

Fault Rupture for assumed scenario

Istanbul Max Scenario (M7.5) – Mean Damage Ratio by Sub-ProvinceSafe Cities

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Very High High Medium Low

Very Low

Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Floods

Forest Fires

Technological

Earthquakes

Epidemics Draughts

Severity (Loss)

Frequency

Risk mapping

A risk matrix provides a visual two-dimensional display of the “ranking” of the risk for a region as a function of severity and frequency.

It is a simple approach for setting priorities .Safe Cities

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DRA as a communication tool

It can be used for:

Educating the community about risks and vulnerabilities.

Engaging stakeholders in rational discussion about risk parameters and options for disaster risk reduction.

Developing institutional knowledge.

Empowering individuals and communities.

Creating ownership mechanisms.

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