principles of macroeconomics - · pdf fileconsider the impact of government policies on the...
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SaversandBorrowersFinancialsystemisdesignedtobringtogetherborrowersandsavers
• Borrowers:(demandfunds)requirefundsforinvestment• Requireloanstopurchasenewcapital,newhome,ect.
• Savers:(supplyfunds)haveexcessfundsaftersatisfyingneeds/wants
• Canholdontoexcessfundsandgainnointerest• Putexcessfundsintothefinancialsystemandgaininterestincome
162
TheMarketforLoanableFunds
Supplyanddemandmodelthatexplains• Howtodetermineinterestrates• Theallocationofloanstoborrowers
Assume:onlyonefinancialmarket• Allsaversdeposittheirsavinginthismarket.
• Allborrowerstakeoutloansfromthismarket.
• Thereisoneinterestrate,whichisboththereturntosavingandthecostofborrowing
163
SupplyofLoanableFundsInterest
Rate
Loanable Funds ($billions)
Supply comes from:• Households with extra
income • Positive public saving
164
Supply(Savings)
DemandforLoanableFundsInterest
Rate
Loanable Funds ($billions)
Demand(Investment)
Demand comes from:• Firms borrow the funds for new
capital • Households borrow to
purchase new houses
165
EquilibriumInterest
Rate
Loanable Funds ($billions)
Demand
The interest rate adjusts to equate supply and demand.
Supply
The eq. quantity of L.F. equals investment and saving.
i*
Qlf *
166
ChangesinLoanableFundsMarketConsidertheimpactofgovernmentpoliciesontheloanablefundsmarket:
(1) Supposethegovernmentdecreasestaxesoninterestincome
(2) Supposethegovernmentprovidesataxcreditforfirmsinvestingingreentechnology
• Whatistheimpactontheloanablefundsmarket?
• Decidewhichcurveshiftsandwhy.
• Drawouttheimpactofeachpolicyandanalyzethenewequilibrium.
167
ChangesinLoanableFundsMarket(1)
InterestRate
Loanable Funds ($billions)
Demand
Supply
(1) Supposethegovernmentdecreasestaxesoninterestincome
168
ChangesinLoanableFundsMarket(1)
InterestRate
Loanable Funds ($billions)
Demand
S.1
(1) Supposethegovernmentdecreasestaxesoninterestincome
169
S.2
ChangesinLoanableFundsMarket(1)
InterestRate
Loanable Funds ($billions)
Demand
S.1
(1) Supposethegovernmentdecreasestaxesoninterestincome
170
S.2
B
A
ChangesinLoanableFundsMarketConsidertheimpactofgovernmentpoliciesontheloanablefundsmarket:
(1) Supposethegovernmentdecreasestaxesoninterestincome
(2) Supposethegovernmentprovidesataxcreditforfirmsinvestingingreentechnology
• Whatistheimpactontheloanablefundsmarket?
• Decidewhichcurveshiftsandwhy.
• Drawouttheimpactofeachpolicyandanalyzethenewequilibrium.
171
ChangesinLoanableFundsMarket(2)
InterestRate
Loanable Funds ($billions)
Demand
Supply
(2)Supposethegovernmentprovidesataxcreditforfirmsinvestingingreentechnology
172
ChangesinLoanableFundsMarket(2)
InterestRate
Loanable Funds ($billions)
D.1
Supply
(2)Supposethegovernmentprovidesataxcreditforfirmsinvestingingreentechnology
173
D.2
ChangesinLoanableFundsMarket(2)
InterestRate
Loanable Funds ($billions)
D.1
Supply
(2)Supposethegovernmentprovidesataxcreditforfirmsinvestingingreentechnology
174
D.2
B
A
ImpactofGovernmentBudgetDeficit
Supposethegovernmentisrunningabudgetdeficitandneedstofinancetheshortfallintaxrevenuebyissuinggovernmentbonds.
• Whatistheimpactontheloanablefundsmarket?• Decidewhichcurveshiftsandwhy.• Drawouttheimpactofeachpolicyandanalyzethenewequilibrium
175
ChangesinLoanableFundsMarket(3)
InterestRate
Loanable Funds ($billions)
Demand
Supply
(3)Gov’tfinancesbudgetdeficitwithnewbonds
176
ChangesinLoanableFundsMarket(3)
InterestRate
Loanable Funds ($billions)
Demand
S.1
(3)Gov’tfinancesbudgetdeficitwithnewbonds
177
S.2
ChangesinLoanableFundsMarket(3)
InterestRate
Loanable Funds ($billions)
Demand
S.1
(3)Gov’tfinancesbudgetdeficitwithnewbonds
178
S.2
B
A
KeyTakeaways
• The loanable funds market is determined by the interaction between suppliers of loans (savers) and demand for loans (borrowers)
• Price of a loan = interest rates which is determined by:• How much people want to save at a given rate• How many loans will be taken out at that rate
• Gov’t policies can influence S/D of loans• Gov’t deficits cause crowding out and lower investment
179
What is Money?Moneyisasetofassetsinaneconomythatpeople
regularlyusetobuygoodsandservicesfromotherpeople
ServesThreeFunctions:1. MediumofExchange-- abilitytopurchasewhatwe
want2. UnitofAccount– abilitytoassignavaluetoanitem3. Storeofvalue– abilitytocomparevaluesindifferent
timeperiods
HistoricalTypes ofMoneyCommodityMoney:theuseofacommodityasmoneywhichitselfholdsintrinsicvalue
à Goldcoins,cowryshells,diamonds
FiatMoney:moneythathasvaluebygovernmentdecree,initselfholdsnovalue
à currencybills(USdollar)
Money and Liquidity
Liquidity: Easewithwhichanassetcanbeconvertedintotheeconomy’smediumofexchange
à Cashisthemostliquidasset
Determining Money SupplyThecentralbankinacountrycontrolsthemoney
supplyandsetsmonetarypolicyUSCentralBank:TheFederalReserve
Determining Money SupplyTheTwoObjectivesoftheFederalReserve:1. Controlmoneysupplythrough:–OpenMarketOperations– Lendingtobanks(lenderoflastresort)– Influencingreserveratios
2. Overseeandregulatethebankingsystem– Clearchecktransactions– Trackbankliquidityandhealth– Lendingtobankswhentheneedit(LenderofLastResort)
Federal Reserve System• 12RegionalBanksthatoverseeregionalbankingoperations
• FederalOpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)– DeterminesMonetaryPolicy– ChairpersonofFederalReserve– FOMC:BoardofGovernors(7members)+5Regionalbankpresidents
–Meetregularlytodeterminemonetarypolicy
Key Takeaways• Moneyisthemostliquidformofassetsavailabletopeople
• Peoplechoosebetweenmoreliquidityormorereturnwithdecidingwheretoputtheirwealth
• MoneySupplyisdeterminedbytheFederalReserve–CentralBankoftheUnitedStates
• TheFedplaysakeyroleintheeconomy– determiningthequantityofmoneyandinfluencinginterestrates
TimeValueofMoney
ValueofMoney:Moneytodayismorevaluabletodaythaninthefuture
Whatwouldyouchoose?- $500today- $500in3years
191
Time Value of Money• Present value: the amount of money needed today to yield that future value of money at
prevailing interest rates
#+%5%0)6('7% =87)7+%6('7%
1 + + :
• Future value: the amount the money will be worth at a given future date, when allowed to earn interest at the prevailing rate
87)7+%6('7% = #+%5%0)6('7% ∗ 1 + + :
Assumptions:• Inflation = 0%• Interest rates do not change over the given time period• Do no withdraw any funds from the account
192
Time Value of Money• Present value: the amount of money needed today to yield that future value of money at
prevailing interest rates
#+%5%0)6('7% =87)7+%6('7%
1 + + :
• Future value: the amount the money will be worth at a given future date, when allowed to earn interest at the prevailing rate
87)7+%6('7% = #+%5%0)6('7% ∗ 1 + + :
Assumptions:• Inflation = 0%• Interest rates do not change over the given time period• Do no withdraw any funds from the account 193
Testyourunderstanding
Suppose you receive $100 today and you put it in the bank where you can gain 5% interest. What will it be worth in 10 years?
194
TestyourunderstandingSuppose you receive $100 today and you put it in the bank where you can gain 5% interest. What will it be worth in 10 years?
PV = $100 i = 5% n = 10
86 = $100 ∗ 1 + 5% ?@
FV = $163
195
Testyourunderstanding
Suppose you are 20 years old today and your grandmother promises you $500 when you turn 25. How much is this gift worth to you today if the interest rate is 10%?
196
Testyourunderstanding
Suppose you are 20 years old today and your grandmother promises you $500 when you turn 25. How much is this gift worth to you today if the interest rate is 10%?FV = $500 i = 10% n = 5
P6 = $A@@
?B?@% C
PV = $310
197
KeyTakeaways
• Todeterminethefuturevaluevs.presentvalueofmoney– needtothinkintermsofopportunitycosts
• Interestrates– influencetheopportunitycostofmoneytodayvs.moneyinthefuture
• BecauseyoucangaininterestincomeonmoneyyoureceiveTODAY,itisworthmorethanthesameamountofmoneyyouwouldreceiveinthefuture
198
Banks and Monetary Policy• Banksplayakeyroleinthefinancialsystem• Bylendingoutpartoftheirdeposits,banks“create”money:Loansgivemoneytopeoplethatpreviouslydidnothaveittobuygoodsandservices
àFractionalReserveBankingSystem• WhentheFedsetsmonetarypolicy,itmustconsiderthe
impactofthefractionalreservebankingsystem• Fedsetsminimumlimitfortheshareofdepositsbanksmust
holdinreserve(ie:cannotloanout)Reserveratio(R) – Shareofdepositsbanksholdasreserve
Totalreserves/Totaldeposits
Bank’s Assets & LiabilitiesBank A
Assets LiabilitiesReserves $ 10Loans $ 90
Deposits $100
Reserveratio(R)=10%
Byloaningoutashareofdepositstoborrowers,Bankscreatemoney!
Loansprovidemoneytopeoplewhodidnotpreviouslyhaveittopurchasegoodsandservices
• Loudeposits$100intohisbankaccount
• BankAholds10%asreserves($10)
• BankAloansout90%($90)toJane
• Janeusesthe$90tobuynewsuppliesforherbusinessfromBill
Bank AAssets Liabilities
Reserves $ 10Loans $ 90
Deposits $100
Bank BAssets Liabilities
Reserves $ 9Loans $ 81
Deposits $90
Bank CAssets Liabilities
Reserves $ 8.10Loans $ 72.90
Deposits $81
• Billdeposits$90intohisbankaccount
• BankBholds10%asreserves($9)
• BankAloansout90%($81)toTim
• Timusesthe$81tobuynewtoolsfromSal
Bank AAssets Liabilities
Reserves $ 10Loans $ 90
Deposits $100
Bank BAssets Liabilities
Reserves $ 9Loans $ 81
Deposits $90
Bank CAssets Liabilities
Reserves $ 8.10Loans $ 72.90
Deposits $81
• Saldeposits$81intohisbankaccount
• BankBholds10%asreserves($8.10)
• BankAloansout90%($72.90)toSara
• Sarausesthe$72.90tobuyanewmachineforhershop
Bank AAssets Liabilities
Reserves $ 10Loans $ 90
Deposits $100
Bank BAssets Liabilities
Reserves $ 9Loans $ 81
Deposits $90
Bank CAssets Liabilities
Reserves $ 8.10Loans $ 72.90
Deposits $81
ThemoneycontinuestofilterthroughthebankingsystemuntilthereisnomorelefttoloanoutThreebankscreated=$90+$81+$72.90=$243.90
Bank AAssets Liabilities
Reserves $ 10Loans $ 90
Deposits $100
Bank BAssets Liabilities
Reserves $ 9Loans $ 81
Deposits $90
Bank CAssets Liabilities
Reserves $ 8.10Loans $ 72.90
Deposits $81
Money Creation Through Banking SystemSupposeFedincreasesmoneysupplyby$100
– Increaseindepositsby$100– Increaseinloansby$90– NewMoneySupply=$100+$90=$190– IncreaseinMSwillfilterthroughthebankingsystemandmoneywillbecreatedthroughthedeposit-loanprocessofbanks
A fractional reserve banking system creates money, but not wealth.
Money Creation Through Banking System
Moneymultiplier(MM):theamountofmoneythebankingsystemgenerateswitheachdollarofreserves
Byhowmuchthemoneysupplyincreaseasitfiltersthroughthebankingsystem
Money Multiplier = 1 / Reserve Ratio
Bank AAssets Liabilities
Reserves $ 10Loans $ 90
Deposits $100
Bank BAssets Liabilities
Reserves $ 9Loans $ 81
Deposits $90
Bank CAssets Liabilities
Reserves $ 8.10Loans $ 72.90
Deposits $81
•Loureceives$100fromtheFederalReserveinexchangeforhisbonds.HedepositsthatmoneyintoBankA.
ChangeinMS=+$100Moneycreatedbythebankingsystem=$100*(1/10%)=$1000
Test your understanding SupposetheFederalReserveincreasesthemoneysupplyby$1000.Thereserverequirementis12.5%.
• Whatisthemoneymultiplier?• Whatisthenewmoneysupplyinthisfractionalreservebankingsystem
Test your understanding SupposetheFederalReserveincreasesthemoneysupplyby$1000.Thereserverequirementis12.5%.
• Whatisthemoneymultiplier?• MM=1/12.5%=8
• Whatisthenewmoneysupplyinthisfractionalreservebankingsystem
• NEWMS=($1000*8)=$8000
Key Takeaways• Thebankingsystemiscrucialinthemoneycreationprocess.Byloaningoutpartofdeposits– bankscreatemoney(butnotwealth)
• TheFed’ssettingofthemoneysupplyisnotperfect,sinceitcannotcontroltheamountofdepositsnorthelendingrateabovethereserverequirement
13
Money Supply and Money Demand• Moneysupply(MS)isdeterminedmainlybytheFederal
Reserve– Quantityofmoneyisfixed– WhentheFedadjustsMS:itimpactstheinterestrate– DiscountRate:InterestrateatwhichFedlendstobanks
• Moneydemand(MD)reflectshowmuchwealthpeoplewanttoholdinaliquidform– Maindeterminant:Interestrates– Athighinterestrates:peopleprefertokeepmorewealthininterest-bearingassets(lowMD)
– Atlowinterestrates:peopleprefertokeepmorewealthinliquidform(highMD)
Changes in Money SupplySupposetheFeddecidestoincreasethemoneysupplythroughopenmarketoperations.Itdecidestobuybondsfromthepublic.• Whathappenstothenewequilibriumpricelevel,valueofmoneyandequilibriumquantityofmoney?
• Intheinterim(beforepriceleveladjusts),isthereasurplusorshortageofmoney?
Coping with Surplus of MoneyWhenthereisasurplusofmoney,peopletrytogetridofit:• Usingthesurplustopurchasegoodsandservicesàmoredemandà priceofgoodsincreases
• Puttingmoneyintheloanablefundsmarketà moreloansavailableà Increaseindemandforgoods
↑MS=↑savings=↓interestrates
↑MS=↑demandforgoods=↑pricelevel
Test your understanding - 1Supposecreditcardsbecomemorereadilyavailabletothegeneraladultpopulation,makingiteasiertopurchasegoodsandserviceswithoutcarryingcasharoundeverywhere.• GraphtheMd-Msdiagram• Whichcurveshiftsandwhy?• Illustratethechangethiswillhaveonthemoneymarket.• Whathappenstothenewequilibriumpricelevel,valueofmoneyandequilibriumquantityofmoney?
Creditcardsbecomemorereadilyavailabletothegeneraladultpopulation,makingiteasiertopurchasegoodsandservices
withoutcarryingcasharoundeverywhere.
P.2
MD
i.1
MSi
QuantityofMoney
MD.2
A
Qm.1
Creditcardsbecomemorereadilyavailabletothegeneraladultpopulation,makingiteasiertopurchasegoodsandservices
withoutcarryingcasharoundeverywhere.
P.2
MD
i.1
MSi
QuantityofMoneyMD.2
A
Qm.1
B
Test your understanding - 2Inresponsetothepreviousscenario,theFedbecomesconcernedaboutinflationandpreferstokeeptheinterestrateati.1(originalinterestrate).• WhatcantheFeddowiththemoneysupplytoimpactthemoneymarket?
Key Takeaways• Moneygrowthinfluencespricelevelsandinflationintheeconomy
• ChangesinMDcomefromachangeinliquiditypreferencesinhouseholds– dotheywanttoholdmore/lesswealthinliquidform?
• ChangesinMSonlycomefromtheFederalReserve– noentityexceptforthecentralbankcanchangemoneysupply
Financial Tools• Interestbearingassetscomeinmanyforms:• Bonds• Stocks• Savingsaccounts• CertificatesofDeposit• TimeDeposits
• Allofthesereturnsomeportionofpeople’sinvestmentasinterestincome
Bonds • Bondsarecertificatesofindebtedness• CorporateBonds:Corporationsissuebondstoraisefundsforaninvestmentproject• GovernmentBonds:Governmentsissuebondstoraisefundstocovertheshortfallintaxrevenue• Atthetimeofmaturity:Principleisrepaid• Overthetimetomaturity:Interestpaymentsmadebythebondissuertothebondholder• Bondholdersgivea“loan”tothebondissuer• Theydonotownpartofthecompanyorgovernment
Pricing Bonds• Factorsthataffectthebondprice:• Timetomaturity• Longertimetomaturityhasahigherbondprice
• Riskinessofrepayment•Moreriskybondshaveahigherbondprice
• Interestrates•Wheninterestratesarehigh–youcangainmoreinterestincomebyputtingyourmoneyinother(higher)interestbearingassetsthanthebond• Higherinterestrates:Lowerbondprices
Stocks• Ownersofstockhavepart-ownershipinacompany• Onlypubliclytradedcompaniesissuestocks• Thevalueofthestockreflects:• Theexpectationsonprofitabilityofthefirm• Supply/Demandforthestock
CentralBankandControloftheMoneySupply• MonetarypolicyandtheroleoftheFederalReserveindeterminingthemoneysupply• GoalstheFederalReserveare:• tocontrolthemoneysupplyintheeconomy• toregulatethebankingsystem
• Controloverthemoneysupply• influenceinterestrates
• Relationshipbetweenthemoneysupplyandtheinterestrateiswhatwecallthetheoryofliquiditypreferences• interestratesaregoingtoadjusttokeepmoneysupplyandmoneydemandtogether
CentralBankandControloftheMoneySupply• Themoneymarketequilibriumwherewehavethemoneydemandandmoneysupplygraphsaswellasthevalueofmoneyandthepriceleveldeterminingthisrelationship• Howcanwereconcilethegraphsthatwesawpreviouslywiththevalueofmoneyandthepricelevelwiththeadjustmentsinmoneysupplyimpactinginterestrates?• We'regoingtoseeisthatthemoneymarketandtheloanablefundsmarketaregoingtobecloselyrelatedinthesensethattheinterestrateeffectisgoingtobethestrongesteffectthatwesee.• Understandhowwecanlinkthemoneymarketwiththeloanablefundsmarketsothatwecanexplainchangesinthemoneysupplywithrespecttochangesininterestrates.
CentralBankandControloftheMoneySupply• Anincreaseinthemoneysupply• Wouldleadtoasurplusofmoneytemporarilyatthegivenpricelevel
• Thestrongestandmostprevalentwaythatpeoplegetridofthissurplusofmoney• Puttingthatmoneyintointerest-bearingassetssothatweseeashiftinthesupplyofloanablefunds• Thereforeweseeanincreaseinthemoneysupply.
• Soanincreaseinthemoneysupply• Asubsequentriseinthepricelevelandashiftoutofthesupplyofloanablefunds• adecreaseintheinterestrate
CentralBankandControloftheMoneySupply• Mergethesetwomarketstogether• anincreaseinthemoneysupplyisgoingtoleadtoadecreaseininterestrates.
• Ontheotherhand,adecreaseinthemoneysupply• leadtoashortageofmoney
• Peopletakemoneyoutoftheirsavings,outoftheirinterest-bearingassetstobuybondsfromtheFederalReserve• thisdecreasesthesupplyofloanablefundsandincreasestheinterestrate
CentralBankandControloftheMoneySupply• OneofthemostprevalentwaysthattheFederalReservecanimpactthemoneysupplyisthroughthebuyingandsellingofbondstothepublic• openmarketoperations
• Iftheywanttoincreasethemoneysupply• FederalReservewillbuybondsfromthepublicinexchangeformoney• Bydoingsoittakesbondsfromthepublicandgivesthepublicmoneyinexchangeandincreasesthemoneysupply
• Iftheywanttodecreasethemoneysupply• Theywillsellbondstothepublic• Theygivepeoplebondsandtaketheirmoneyinexchange,andbydoingsodecreasingthesupplyofmoneyintheeconomy
CentralBankandControloftheMoneySupply• Anotherwayisthroughsettingthediscountrate• Thediscountrateistherateatwhichbankslendtoeachother• Highdiscountrate,banksarenotgoingtowanttolendtoeachother• Moreexpensiveforthemtodoso,sothey'llholdontomorereservesjustincase• Sothemoneycreationprocessisgoingtobesmaller—thatmultipliereffectisgoingtobesmaller
CentralBankandControloftheMoneySupply• AnotherwaythattheFederalReservecaninfluencethemoneycreationprocessisthesettingreserverequirements• They'llsetaminimumofreserveratiosthatthebankshavetohold
• Ifthatminimumishighthenthemoneycreationprocessisgoingtobesmallerbecausethebanksaregoingtoberequiredtoholdontomorereserves• TheFederalReservetriesnottochangethereserverequirementsfrequentlybecauseyoucandisruptbankingbusiness
CentralBankandControloftheMoneySupply• Lastly,theFederalReservecanchoosetopayinteresttothebanks'reserves• Thehighertheinterestthattheyarepayingtobanksthemorereservesthebankswillhold• Thereforethesmallerthemoneycreationprocessis
• TheselastthreestepsareawayfortheFederalReservetoimpactthecreationofmoneyinthebankingsystemandindirectlyinfluencethemoneysupply
ClassicalDichotomyReferstotheseparationofnominalandrealvariables
• NominalVariables: MeasuredinmonetarytermsThepriceofanappleis$2Thepriceofabananais$1
• RealVariables:Measuredinphysicalunits(orrelativeterms)Thepriceofanappleis2bananasThepriceofabananais½apple
Changesinthemoneysupply– Nominalchanges
MonetaryNeutrality:Changesinthemoneysupplywillnotimpactrealvariables
200
FischerEffect• Nominalinterestratesadjustone-for-onetotheinflationrate
Reali =nominali – inflation
• Changeininflationà impactsnominalinterestratenotrealinterestrate
• Importantimplicationsfortaxinginterestincome,debtrepayment,andsavings
201
FischerEffectandTaxesSupposeCountryAandCountryBbothsettaxesoninterestincometo20%.CountryA’sinflationis1%,CountryB’sinflationis10%.Completethefollowingtable:
Whichcountryislikelytohavelowersavingsrates?
CountryA CountryBRealInterest Rate 3% 3%
InflationRate 1% 10%
NominalInterestRateReductioninNominalInterestfrom20%taxAfter-taxNominalRateAfter-tax RealRate
202
FischerEffectandTaxesSupposeCountryAandCountryBbothsettaxesoninterestincometo20%.CountryA’sinflationis1%,CountryB’sinflationis10%.Completethefollowingtable:
Whichcountryislikelytohavelowersavingsrates?
CountryA CountryB
RealInterest Rate 3% 3%
InflationRate 1% 10%
NominalInterestRate 3%+1%=4% 3%+10%=13%
ReductioninNominalInterestfrom20%tax
After-taxNominalRate
After-tax RealRate
203
FischerEffectandTaxesSupposeCountryAandCountryBbothsettaxesoninterestincometo20%.CountryA’sinflationis1%,CountryB’sinflationis10%.Completethefollowingtable:
Whichcountryislikelytohavelowersavingsrates?
CountryA CountryB
RealInterest Rate 3% 3%
InflationRate 1% 10%
NominalInterestRate 4% 13%
ReductioninNominalInterestfrom20%tax
4*0.2 =0.8% 13*0.2=2.6%
After-taxNominalRate
After-tax RealRate
204
FischerEffectandTaxesSupposeCountryAandCountryBbothsettaxesoninterestincometo20%.CountryA’sinflationis1%,CountryB’sinflationis10%.Completethefollowingtable:
Whichcountryislikelytohavelowersavingsrates?
CountryA CountryB
RealInterest Rate 3% 3%
InflationRate 1% 10%
NominalInterestRate 4% 13%
ReductioninNominalInterestfrom20%tax
0.8% 2.6%
After-taxNominalRate 4-0.8 =3.2% 13-2.6=10.4%
After-tax RealRate
205
FischerEffectandTaxesSupposeCountryAandCountryBbothsettaxesoninterestincometo20%.CountryA’sinflationis1%,CountryB’sinflationis10%.Completethefollowingtable:
Whichcountryislikelytohavelowersavingsrates?CountryB
CountryA CountryB
RealInterest Rate 3% 3%
InflationRate 1% 10%
NominalInterestRate 4% 13%
ReductioninNominalInterestfrom20%tax
0.8% 2.6%
After-taxNominalRate 3.2% 10.4%
After-tax RealRate 3.2% - 1%=2.2% 10.4% - 10%=0.4%
206
KeyTakeaways• Inflationimpactsinterestratesandthereforetherealvalueofmoney
• FischerEffecttellsusthatnominalrateswilladjustone-for-onetochanginginflation
• Highinflationisbadforsavers
207
Classical Dichotomy Referstotheseparationofnominalandrealvariables• NominalVariables: Measuredinmonetaryterms
Thepriceofanappleis$2Thepriceofabananais$1
• RealVariables:Measuredinphysicalunits(orrelativeterms)Thepriceofanappleis2bananasThepriceofabananais½apple
Changesinthemoneysupply– NominalchangesMonetaryNeutrality:Changesinthemoneysupplywillnotimpact
realvariables
The Velocity of MoneyVelocityofmoney:therateatwhichmoneychangeshandsNotation:P xY =nominalGDP
=(pricelevel)x(realGDP)M =moneysupplyV =velocity
Velocityofmoney: V = P x YM
QuantityEquation:M xV =P xY
Test your Understanding• IfthenominalGDPis$10,000andthemoneysupplyif$5,000,whatisthevelocityofmoney?
Test your Understanding• IfthenominalGDPis$10,000andthemoneysupplyif$5,000,whatisthevelocityofmoney?
• V=NGDP/MS• V=$10,000/$5,000• V=2
Example of Quantity Theory of MoneySupposewehavethefollowingvalues:Y=$5000;V=5;M=$2000;P=2
• QuantityEquationà MV=PY• $2000*5=$5000*2à $10,000=$10,000
Example of Quantity Theory of MoneySupposewehavethefollowingvalues:Y=$5000;V=5;M=$2000;P=2QuantityEquation=$10,000Ifmoneysupplyincreasesto$3000,howwouldeachvariablechangetokeeptheequationinbalance?•M=$3000• QuantityEquationà $3000*5=$5000*2à $15,000=/$10,000
Example of Quantity Theory of MoneyIfmoneysupplyincreasesto$3000,howwouldeachvariablechangetokeeptheequationinbalance?•M=$3000• QuantityEquationà $3000*5=$5000*2à $15,000=$10,000
• Y=7500:• $3000*5=$7500*2à 15,000=15,000
Example of Quantity Theory of Money
Ifmoneysupplyincreasesto$3000,howwouldeachvariablechangetokeeptheequationinbalance?•M=$3000• QuantityEquationà $3000*5=$5000*2à $15,000=$10,000
• V=3.33:• $3000*3.33=$5000*2à 10,000=15,000
Example of Quantity Theory of MoneyIfmoneysupplyincreasesto$3000,howwouldeachvariablechangetokeeptheequationinbalance?•M=$3000• QuantityEquationà $3000*5=$5000*2à $15,000=$10,000
• P=3:• $3000*5=$5000*3à 15,000=15,000
Pricesaretheonlyothernominalvariableinthisequation.Ifmoneysupplychanges,priceswilladjustaccordingly tokeepthequantityequationinbalance
Example of Quantity Theory of Money
Ifmoneysupplyincreasesto$3000,howwouldeachvariablechangetokeeptheequationinbalance?•M=$3000• QuantityEquationà $3000*5=$5000*2à $15,000=$10,000
• IfP=3• NominalGDP=$5,000*3=$15,000
NominalGDPwillincreasewithanincreaseinthemoneysupplybecausepricesrise