principles of risk - risk perception

7/30/2019 Principles of Risk - Risk Perception

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The Business School

The Business School

Principles of Risk

Risk Perception and Tolerance


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The Business School

The Business School

Risk Perception

Much of this material draws upon the literature review undertaken byWilliamson and Weyman (2005) Review of the Public Perception of

Risk, and Stakeholder Engagement Health & Safety Laboratory

But also

APM (2004) Project Risk Analysis and Management Guide APMPublishing

Also work by John Adams see john-adams.co.uk


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The Business School

The Business School

Risk conceptualframework

realist perspective:

there is an objectivereality that is

ultimately knowable

through empirical

investigation constructionist position:

that reality is constructedand represented through

discursive social processes

. risk (is) relative

Williamson & Weyman (2005)

Objective?

Subjective?


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The Business School

The risk thermostat Adams (1995)

Rewards

Perceiveddanger Accidents

Balancingbehaviour

Propensity totake risks


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Influences on behaviourPerception

Attitude

Personality

Motivation

GroupOrganisation

Environments

The

individual

The

situation

Behaviour

APM (2004)


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The Business School

Rational Actor Models: BehaviouralDecision Theory

Early work considered economic models of rationality

and utility.

Starr (1969)then looked at revealed preferences: risks

are evaluated in terms of costs and benefits.

non-rational decision making then explained as the

short-cuts people use to reduce and manage the

complexity of the world around them[Williamson and

Weyman (2005)]


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The Business SchoolThe Business School

Rational Actor Models:Value Expectancy Theory

Weinstein (1993) considers the common characteristics of

value expectancy models to be:

a. The desire to m inimisethe negative consequences of ananticipated event motivates individuals to protect themselves.

b. The perceived serious nessof these consequences is

judged to influence the outcome of the self-protective

behaviour.c. The perceived l ikel ihoodof an event occurring influences

the motivation to adopt self protective behaviour.

d. The benefits of self-protective behaviour are weighed

against the costs of such behaviour


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The Psychometric Approach

Initial approach involved the application of multivariatestatistical techniques to attitudinal data to examinepeoples expressed risk evaluations

Further research developed towards two keycharacteristics or dimensions influencing peoplesperception of risk:

seriousness of consequences (perceived dread); and, degree of familiarity/uncertainty (unknown risk).

Later noted cross-cultural differences in tolerability

of risk


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The Mental Models Approach

This approach considers gaps in understanding of hazards betweenexpert and lay models of risk.

Weyman and Kelly (1999) summarise some key findings, especially

around specific hazardous substances:

The difficulties people face in understanding the differencesbetween single exposure and repeated exposures. Patterns ofrepeated behaviour are understood as discrete incidents(accumulation bias)

The decreased risk that people judge their own behaviour whencomparing themselves to others who behave in the same way(optimistic bias)

The search for causal explanation can bias people to makeassociations between two factors because they are closetogether(cerebral contiguity)


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Social, Cultural And Organisational

Processes: Cultural Theory

Two domains ofcultural biasand social relationsare taken to

explain differences in risk perception.

Risks are selected for attention that reinforce the groups position or

way of life, relative to other groups.

Weyman and Kelly (1999) suggest, the focus on risk expresses

wider socio-political interests and agendas.

Walker et al (1998) also highlight the geographical location of the

hazard: location influences the perception of risk to the extent it

provides the physical setting


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The Social Amplification of RiskRecent sociological risk research is sceptical about any individual

theoretical paradigm. So - social ampl i f icat ion of r iskis becoming a

focus for integrating multi-disciplinary approaches to risk.

Some of this links into risk communication and media-based or

media-led perceptions of risk (to be considered later). Amongst

findings are:

Public perception/responses to hazards can be more rational than

might be thought;

Risk signals that are attributable to incompetent risk management

are important for public concern;

Similarly, trust and perception in institutional risk management

handling of risk are important.


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Social, Cultural And OrganisationalProcesses

Perceived control

Psychological time and risk

Familiarity

Trust and distrust

The Framing of Risk


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The Business SchoolThe Business SchoolVariables Influencing Perceptions of Risk

Acceptance

(Trust)

Critical

Trust

Distrust Rejection

(Cynicism)

Scepticism

L

H

H

Reliance

The Typology of Trust

(Poortinga and Pidgeon 2003)


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Risk management is:

a balancing act

instinctive

intuitive

influenced by experience

modified by culture

A successful risk manager

From:

http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/Day_One_

Session_One_John_Adams.pdf


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The risk thermostat Adams (1995)

Rewards

Perceiveddanger Accidents

Balancingbehaviour

Propensity totake risks

But there is a bottom loop bias .Reducing risks, protecting people

Exercising a powerful influence

for accident prevention


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Do cy cl ists real ly need helmets?Two years

ago I was invited to give a lecture in Amsterdam

comparing Dutch and British attitudes to risk. I

complimented my hosts on having a much bettercycling accident record than the British, and

went on to say that I had been in Amsterdam for

two days and seen many thousands of cyclists

but only half a dozen cycle helmets. A member

of the audience responded by saying that I hadbeen looking in the wrong place. He offered to

show me the following morning a disciplined file

of children on bicycles all wearing helmets and

fluorescent jackets. They would, he added, be

cycling to the British school.

http://john-adams.co.uk from

blog August 15 2008


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Canadian research found that Sars appears like other forms of

pneumonia to kill mostly the old and vulnerable - the average of death ofCanadian Sars victims is 74. Frank Plummer, the principle Canadian

researcher: I think everyone is under huge pressure to get stuff out, and

the journals are bugging people for papers. And some people are

slapping things together. My position is I remain to be convinced.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars)

Described as a respiratory illness of unknown

etiology . pneumonia or respiratory distress

syndrome without an identifiable cause

AND in someone who within 10 days of onset

of symptoms has been in an area withdocumented or suspected community

transmission of Sars.


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The Business SchoolThe Business SchoolOf the 31678 fatalities attributed to

pneumonia in Britain in 2001 31351

(99%) were described as "Pneumonia,organism unspecified".

Timescale World UK

Year 54,997,000 612,000

Month 4,583,000 51,000

Week 1,058,000 11,737

Day 151, 090 1,677

So . if Sars is nothing more than pneumonia plus

contact history, but there is no agreed set of

symptoms for classifying the up-stream contacts,

how can we estimate the risk?

UK deaths = 0

Global deaths = 774


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Perceived

through science

Virtual riskPerceived

directly

Eg cholera need a

microscope to see and

training to understandThree kinds ofrisk Adams

(various dates)

Eg climbing a tree, riding

a bike, etc.Scientists dont know or cant

agree eg low level radiation,

global warming, mobile

phones .. The stock market?


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principles of risk - risk perception

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