priority research issues always determined by key policy ... · 3. rise of commercialized african...

T.S. Jayne

Seminar at Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute, Lusaka, Zambia

16 April 2018

THOUGHTS ON PRIORITY RESEARCHTOPICS TO SUPPORT AGRI-FOODSYSTEMS TRANSFORMATION IN AFRICA

Priority research issues always determined by key policy challenges

-- Some are known-- Others are unseen

2

A FEW MAJOR TRENDS AFFECTING AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

1. Major growth in per capita incomes

2. Impressive agricultural growth rates

3. Rise of commercialized African investor farmers

4. Rapid investment in agricultural value chains by African

entrepreneurs

5. Diversification of the labor force into off-farm activities

6. Greater vibrancy of agricultural factors markets

7. Improved market access conditions for African farmers

3

Annual inflation-adjusted agricultural growth rates, 2000-2016:

• Sub-Saharan Africa: +4.62 %

• East Asia: +3.07 %

• South Asia: +2.96 %

• Latin America: +2.49 %

• World: +2.75 %

4

IMPRESSIVE AGRICULTURAL GROWTH

AGRICULTURAL VALUE ADDED ANNUAL GROWTH RATES 2000-2016 (constant local currency units)

Ethiopia Nigeria Rwanda Moz'bique Mali Tanzania Kenya Malawi Zambia% growth 6.2 5.91 5.47 4.72 4.55 3.5 3.07 1.89 -0.92

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

5Source: World Development Indicators, 2017

% g

row

th ra

te

Chart1

Ethiopia

Nigeria

Rwanda

Moz'bique

Mali

Tanzania

Kenya

Malawi

Zambia

% growth

6.2

5.91

5.47

4.72

4.55

3.5

3.07

1.89

-0.92

Sheet1

% growthColumn1Column2

Ethiopia6.2

Nigeria5.91

Rwanda5.47

Moz'bique4.72

Mali4.55

Tanzania3.5

Kenya3.07

Malawi1.89

Zambia-0.92

6Source: IFAD Rural Development Report, 2016; World Development Indicators database, 2016.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION

7 UNMISTAKABLE SIGNS OF AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION IN SSA




7

Annual growth rates in numbers of farms by size category, Zambia, 2001-2015

8

Chart1

0-5 ha0-5 ha

5-10 ha5-10 ha

10-20 ha10-20 ha

20-100 ha20-100 ha

over 100 haover 100 ha

totaltotal

operated farm size

landholding size

Annual percentage growth rate

1.99

1.6

6.11

5.21

8.76

8.17

15.51

11.31

-4.36

41.04

2.53

2.53

Sheet1

operated farm sizelandholding sizeSeries 3

0-5 ha1.991.62

5-10 ha6.115.212

10-20 ha8.768.173

20-100 ha15.5111.315

over 100 ha-4.3641.04

total2.532.53

Number of farms in Zambia by operated farm size category

9

numbers of farms 0-5 ha 5-10 ha 10-20 ha 20-100 ha Over 100 ha All farms

2001 1,032,743 69,063 12,468 2,141 81 1,116,496

2008 1,473,238 77,250 13,650 2,346 69 1,669,861

2012 1,295,293 75,357 18,037 2,595 1,417,992

2015 1,320,354 128,169 27,765 6,791 32 1,512,378

Annual % change 1.99% 6.11% 8.76% 15.51% -4.36% 2.53%

Number of farms in Zambia by landholding size categorynumber of farms

0-5 ha 5-10 ha 10-20 ha 20-100 ha Over 100 ha all farms

2001 941,801 124,892 36,920 12,470 414 1,116,496

2008 1,399,775 120,311 30,073 13,829 2,565 1,669,861

2012 1,212,482 120,450 45,017 12,650 683 1,417,992

2015 1,153,318 215,945 79,153 31,905 2,789 1,512,378

Annual % change 1.60% 5.21% 8.17% 11.13% 41.04% 2.53%

Sour

ces:

Cen

tral S

tatis

tical

Offi

ce, G

over

nmen

t of Z

ambi

a, n

atio

nally

repr

esen

tativ

e su

pple

men

tal P

ost-H

arve

st S

urve

ys (2

001

and

2008

) and

Rur

al/A

gric

ultu

ral L

ivel

ihoo

ds

Surv

eys

(201

2 an

d 20

15).

Share of total value of marketed farm output by farm size category, Zambia

10

Share of total value of marketed crop + animal product output by operated farm size group (%)

0-5 ha 5-10 ha 10-20 ha 20-100 ha Over 100 ha

Total value of marketed crop

produced

2001 74.2 15.0 8.3 2.5 0.06 100.00

2008 62.9 21.9 11.7 3.4 0.05 100.00

2012 60.9 20.5 11.7 2.9 100.00

2015 52.9 22.6 19.6 4.8 0.00 100.00

Annual % change -2.04% 3.62% 9.78% 6.69% -6.75%

Sources: Central Statistical Office, Government of Zambia, nationally representative supplemental Post-Harvest Surveys (2001 and 2008) and Rural/Agricultural Livelihoods Surveys (2012 and 2015).





4. Rapid investment in agricultural value chains by African entrepreneurs

11

• 8-fold increase in the volumes and value of food marketed through

rural-to-urban value chains since 2000 (Tschirley et al, 2017)

• Underlying drivers:

– rapidly rising urban demand

– high global food prices

– agricultural sectoral reforms of 1990s

12

RAPID INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURAL VALUE CHAINS BY AFRICAN ENTREPRENEURS







13

RAPID DECLINE IN SHARE OF LABOR FORCE IN FARMING(IN FULL-TIME EQUVALENTS)

Source: Yeboah and Jayne (2018)

Chart1

Ghana (2006-2013)Ghana (2006-2013)

Nigeria (2004-2013)Nigeria (2004-2013)

Rwanda (2006-2011)Rwanda (2006-2011)

Tanzania (2009-2015)Tanzania (2009-2015)

Uganda (2006-2012)Uganda (2006-2012)

Zambia (2005-2012)Zambia (2005-2012)

initial year

most recent year

% of labor force

43.5

34.3

21.8

33.7

65.7

54

60.8

47.3

57

48.6

61.2

46.7

Sheet1

initial yearmost recent year

Ghana (2006-2013)43.534.3

Nigeria (2004-2013)21.833.7

Rwanda (2006-2011)65.754

Tanzania (2009-2015)60.847.3

Uganda (2006-2012)5748.6

Zambia (2005-2012)61.246.7

15

010

2030

4050

6070

8090

Sha

re in

tota

l em

ploy

men

t (%

)

5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5

Log of GDP per Capita (2010 US dollar)

Botswana Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Malawi MauritiusNigeria Senegal South Africa Tanzania Zambia

Agriculture

16

010

2030

4050

6070

Sha

re in

tota

l em

ploy

men

t (%

)

5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5

Log GDP per Capita (2010 US dollar)


Services

17

05

1015

2025

30

Sha

re o

f tot

al e

mpl

oym

ent (

%)

5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5

Log GDP per Capita (2010 US dollar)


Manufacturing








18

Inherited 33.17%

Gifted 10.33%

Purchased 29.63%

Borrowed 11.09%

Rented 9.63%

Other (squatting / cleared land/ allocated) 6.16%

Observations 4,291

PERCENT OF TOTAL FARMLAND AREA

Source: LSMS/National Panel Survey 2014/15

PERCENT OF PLOTS

19

MODE OF ACQUISITION OF ALL FARM PLOTS IN TANZANIA

20

Source: Van der Westhuisen et al, 2018, based on Trade Map database

NOMINAL VALUE OF TRACTOR IMPORTS TO SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (EXCL. SOUTH AFRICA), 2001-2015

21Source: Van der Westhuisen, 2018, based on LSMS/NPS surveys

% OF FARM HOUSEHOLDS RENTING TRACTOR SERVICES IN TANZANIA, 2009 VS 2015

22Source: LSMS 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015

MEAN LAND PRICES IN TANZANIA : +53.9% IN REAL TERMS IN 6 YEARS

Sources: LSMS-ISA and IHS for land and wages; FEWSNET for urea and maize

OUTPUT AND FACTOR PRICE INDICES, RURAL MALAWI, 2004-2013








7. Improved market access conditions for African farmers

24

Source: Sitko and Jayne, 2014

FARMER REPORTED NUMBERS OF TRADERS BUYING MAIZE IN THEIR VILLAGE, 2014

% o

f all

farm

er re

spon

dent

s

1. Future ag growth needed from higher value per hectare and per laborer, not just area expansion

26

MAJOR CHALLENGES TO BE TACKLED

27

AFRICA’S AGRICULTURAL GROWTH STILL RELIES MAINLY ON CROPLAND EXPANSION, NOT ENOUGH ON PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

Source: Economic Research Service, https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural-productivity/

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/

SSA Total Food Imports from 7 to 40 billion USD (2001-2015)(intra SSA trade from 1 to 10 billion USD)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total Food Importsl_SSA

Total Food Imports_nonSSA

Total value food imports as % value of domestic agriculture production

Billions of nominal U

SDTo

tal v

alue

food

impo

rts a

s %

of A

frica

n ag

ricul

tura

l pro

duct

ion

valu

e

YOUTH LIVELIHOODS

OPTIONS62% < 25 years

40%Non-farm

60%Farming

Pulled out of agriculture• In jobs with high barriers to entry• Post-secondary education• Invested in skills

80%

YOUTH LIVELIHOODS

OPTIONS62% < 25 years

40%Non-farm

60%Farming

10%Successful non-farm

30%Struggling non-farm

10%Successful farming

50%Struggling farm

70%Successful non-farm

30%Successful farming

Policies• Inclusive economic

growth• Infrastructure• R&D• Education

– Post-secondary

Policies• R&D / ext.• Land access• Finance• Infrastructure and

investments along value chain

– Irrigation– Roads– Electricity

STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION PATHWAY

A few priority research topics

1. Youth employment – how to manage the transition

2. Is agriculture still the main engine of economic transformation?

• How can agricultural growth better contribute to poverty reduction?

3. How to improve market access conditions for smallholder farmers

4. How to effectively cope with food supply instability – managing the instability / role of state in staple food markets

A few priority research topics(continued)

5. How to raise output per hectare in sustainable ways – not just relying on area expansion

6. Sustainable intensification– how to achieve it in farmers’ fields?

– … in light of changing factor prices? (induced innovation hypothesis)

7. Does sustainability also apply to integrated food-energy-water-land systems?

8. How can smallholders’ raise crop response to fertilizer?

9. How can input subsidy programs be made effective?

T.S. Jayne

Seminar at Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute, Lusaka, Zambia

16 April 2018

THOUGHTS ON PRIORITY RESEARCHTOPICS TO SUPPORT AGRI-FOODSYSTEMS TRANSFORMATION IN AFRICA

34

Source: UN 2013

SUB SAHARAN AFRICA : ONLY REGION OF THE WORLD WHERE RURAL POPULATION CONTINUES TO RISE PAST 2050

1. Future ag growth needed from higher value per hectare and per laborer, not just area expansion

2. Land/soil degradation – will make continued agricultural transformation more difficult unless

addressed

• Proximate causes: low adoption of “climate smart” and “sustainable” land management

practices

• Underlying culprits – ineffective national ag R&D and extension systems

3. The “employment challenge”: each year, roughly 17 million young Africans enter working age

35

MAJOR CHALLENGES TO BE TACKLED

62% < 25 years old

LOOMING EMPLOYMENT CHALLENGE IN SSA

Slide Number 1Slide Number 2A Few major trends affecting AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMs �IN Sub-Saharan AfricaSlide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 67 UNMISTAKABLE SIGNS OF AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION IN SSAAnnual growth rates in numbers of farms by size category, Zambia, 2001-2015Number of farms in Zambia by operated farm size categoryShare of total value of marketed farm output �by farm size category, Zambia7 UNMISTAKABLE SIGNS OF AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION IN SSARAPID INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURAL VALUE CHAINS BY AFRICAN ENTREPRENEURS7 UNMISTAKABLE SIGNS OF AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION IN SSARapid decline in share of labor force in farming�(IN FULL-TIME EQUVALENTS)Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 177 UNMISTAKABLE SIGNS OF AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION IN SSASlide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 237 UNMISTAKABLE SIGNS OF AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION IN SSASlide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27SSA Total Food Imports from 7 to 40 billion USD (2001-2015)�(intra SSA trade from 1 to 10 billion USD)Slide Number 29Slide Number 30A few priority research topicsA few priority research topics (continued)Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Slide Number 35Slide Number 36

priority research issues always determined by key policy ... · 3. rise of commercialized african...

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