pro-poor hpai reduction strategies project · wild migratory wild bird q6 travellers from infected...
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Pro-poor HPAI Reduction Strategies ProjectEthiopia Risk assessment Multi-Stakeholder Workshop
Background information: Poultry sectors and disease status
Hassen Chaka & Serge Nzietchueng
September 25th -26th, 2008, ILRI,Addis Ababa
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Poultry production system
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Livestock sector
• About 18.8% of national
GDP and 40% of the
agriculture GDP (FAO,2004)
• Poultry (Chicken)
population: estimated at population: estimated at
34.2 million (CSA, 2007)
• 94.44% native breed,
3.92% hybrid
breed,0.64% exotic
breed (CSA, 2007)
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• Tigray, Amhara,
Oromia and
SNNPR regions SNNPR regions
present the higher
poultry densities
Source: Serge Nzietchueng,2007,CSA 2007
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Three poultry production systems
Bio-security Localization
Backyard Minimal All the country
Small commercial
farm
Minimal to low Debre Zeit town
(Oromia region)
and Addis Ababa
Large commercial
farm
Medium to high Debre Zeit
Oromia region
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Trade flow of poultry and poultry products in Ethiopia
Source: Goutard & Magalhaes, 2006
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No specific routes No specific routes
for chicken trade
Source: Serge Nzietchueng,2007
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Disease status
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Backyard
• Parasitism (gastrointestinal helminths), prevalence:91.01% (Eshetu et al.,2001)
• Marek’s disease,prevalence: 72.9% (Duguma et al., 2005)
• Newcastle disease,prevalence: 32.22% (Tadesse et al., 2005)
• Coccidiosis,prevalence: 25.8% (Ashenafi et al., 2004)
Small commercial farm
• Coccidiosis
Commercial farmCommercial farm
• Marek’s disease
• Gumboro disease
• Coccidiosis
Risk for introduction of HPAI H5N1virus into Ethiopia exist
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Ways for introduction of HPAI H5N1 virus into
Ethiopia
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Legal trade
• Importation: DOC,HE,…
• Poultry equipments (Incubator, Feeding, Watering, Cage)
• Poultry products (Egg, meat,…)
• At the border (Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea).
Illegal tradeIllegal trade
• Small traders at the border with Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea.
Wild migratory wild bird
Travellers from infected countries
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Risk questions
What is the risk of introduction of
HPAI H5N1 virus into Ethiopia by…
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Legal trade
• Importation: DOC,HE,… Q1
• Poultry equipments (Incubator, Feeding, Watering, Cage,…) Q2
• Poultry products (Egg, meat,…). Q3
• At the border (Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea) Q4.
Illegal trade
• Smalls trader at the border with Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea. Q5
Wild migratory wild bird Q6
Travellers from infected countries Q7
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What has been already done
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Qualitative risk assessment of introduction and
dessemination of HPAI H5N1 virus into Ethiopia by
the migratory wild birds(Goutard and al,2007)
Risk question: What is the risk of introduction and dissemination of HPAI H5N1 virus into Ethiopia by the migratory wild birds
Time frame: European winter (December-February)
Pathways
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Congregation sites: lakes,
swamps
Migratory waterbirds
Eurasian/African species
Residents waterbirds
African species
Ethiopia
Contamination through
Commercial or governmental
farms
Backyard chicken
Contamination through
water/environmentContamination through
water/environment
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Release assessment
Probability that infected wild water migratory birds enter an Ethiopian congregation site
Source
population of
migratory birds
Population
infected byProbability to be infected by 5N1
migratory birdsinfected by
H5N1
Population
infected by
H5N1
Population infected by
H5N1 reaching
congregation sites
Probability to survive infection and to reach congregation sites
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Exposure and consequences assessment
Probability that the infection
become endemic in resident wild water birds in Ethiopia
Population in
contact
with infected
migratory birds
Probability to be in contact with resident wild water birds
Population infected by
H5N1 reaching
congregation sites
Population in Population of
resident
water birds
infected by
H5N1
Probability to be infected by the virusPopulation in
contact
with infected
migratory birds
Population of
resident
water birds
infected by
H5N1
Probability to survive infectionPopulation of
resident water
birds infected by
H5N1
surviving the
infection
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Exposure and consequences assessment
Probability that domesticpoultry in Ethiopia become infected by H5N1 HPAI after wild bird infection
Population of
domestic
poultry in
contact with
Probability to be in contact with domestic poultry
Population of
resident water
birds infected by
H5N1
surviving the
Population of
domestic poultry
infected by H5N1
contact with
infected birds
Probability to be infected by the virus
surviving the
infection
Population of
domestic
poultry in
contact with
infected birds
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Qualitative risk assessment of the introduction of the HPAI H5N1 virus into Ethiopia via formal and
informal importation of poultry(Olive and al,2007)
Risk question: What is the risk of introduction of HPAI H5N1 virus into Ethiopia via formal and informal importation of poultryimportation of poultry
Time frame: January-May 2006.
Pathways
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DOC import: Netherland, Egypt,
Kingdon of Saudi Arabia, United
Kingdon
Restaurant, hotels
Commercial farms: Agro industrie ELFORA, Genesis farm,Alema farm, Almaz
Miltiplication centers (Gouvernemental farms)
Border countries: Sudan, Somalia,
Djibouti, Kenya
Traders
Informal
Restaurant, hotelsTraders
Agriculture
woredas office
Secondary or terminal market
Traders Local
Backyard
Introduction spread Exposure
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Quantitative assessment of the risk for introduction
of HPAI H5N1 virus into Ethiopia via the legal trade
of Day-old-chicks(Soares and al,2007)
Risk question: What is the risk of introduction of HPAI H5N1 virus into Ethiopia commercial farm via the legal import of day-old-chicksvia the legal import of day-old-chicks
Time frame: January-December
Pathways
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Approved
Poultry farm for
export
Transport of
DOC during
export
Ethiopia
border
Private
H5N1 infected
environnment
H5N1 infected wild birds
Govermmental
Border inspection
post
b b
Border inspection
post
Private
commercial
poultry farm
H5N1 infected domestic
poultry
Govermmental
commercial poultry
farm
Ethiopia
bordera
a) Pathways involved in the release
b) Pathways involved in the exposure
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Do we need to update these
Risk assessments?Risk assessments?
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Thank you
Q&R