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Probability and Cumulative Distribution Functions Lesson 20

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Probability and CumulativeDistribution Functions

Lesson 20

RecallIf p(x) is a density function for some characteristic of apopulation, then

RecallIf p(x) is a density function for some characteristic of apopulation, then

We also know that for any density function,

RecallWe also interpret density functions as probabilities:

If p(x) is a probability density function (pdf), then

Cumulative DistributionFunction

Suppose p(x) is a density function for a quantity.

The cumulative distribution function (cdf) for the quantity isdefined as

Gives:

• The proportion of population with value less than x

• The probability of having a value less than x.

Example: A Spinner

Last class: A spinner that could take on any value0º ≤ x ≤ 360º.

Density function: p(x) = 1/360 if 0 ≤ x ≤ 360, and 0everywhere else.

Example: A Spinner

Last class: A spinner that could take on any value0º ≤ x ≤ 360º.

Density function: p(x) = 1/360 if 0 ≤ x ≤ 360, and 0everywhere else.

CDF:

Example: A Spinner

Density Function:Cumulative

Distribution Function:

Properties of CDFs

• P(x) is the probability of values less than x– If P(x) is the cdf for the age in months of fish in

a lake, then P(10) is the probability a randomfish is 10 months or younger.

• P(x) goes to 0 as x gets smaller:

(In many cases, we may reach 0.)

Properties of CDFs

• Conversely,

• P(x) is non-decreasing.– The derivative is a density function, which

cannot be negative.– Also, P(4) can’t be less than P(3), for example.

PracticeLife expectancy (in days) of electronic component has densityfunction , for x ≥ 1, and p(x) = 0 for x < 1.

a) Probability component lasts between 0 and 1 day?

b) Probability it lasts between 0 and 10 days?

c) More than 10 days?

d) Find the CDF for the life expectancy.

PracticeLife expectancy (in days) of electronic component has densityfunction , for x ≥ 1, and p(x) = 0 for x < 1.

a) Probability component lasts between 0 and 1 day?

Zero!

PracticeLife expectancy (in days) of electronic component has densityfunction , for x ≥ 1, and p(x) = 0 for x < 1.

b) Probability it lasts between 0 and 10 days?

PracticeLife expectancy (in days) of electronic component has densityfunction , for x ≥ 1, and p(x) = 0 for x < 1.

c) More than 10 days?

PracticeLife expectancy (in days) of electronic component has densityfunction , for x ≥ 1, and p(x) = 0 for x < 1.

c) More than 10 days?

PracticeLife expectancy (in days) of electronic component has densityfunction , for x ≥ 1, and p(x) = 0 for x < 1.

d) Find the CDF for life expectancy.

If x < 1, then

If x ≥ 1, then

PracticeLife expectancy (in days) of electronic component has densityfunction , for x ≥ 1, and p(x) = 0 for x < 1.

d) Find the CDF for life expectancy.

ExampleSomeone claims this is theCDF for grades on the 2015final exam.

Probability a random studentscored….

• 25 or lower?

1, or 100%.

• 50 or lower?

0.5, or 50%.

Conclusion?

They’re lying! This cannot bea cumulative distributionfunction! (It decreases.)

Relating the CDF and DF

According the FTC version 2, since

then P'(x) = p(x).

,

Relating the CDF and DF

According the FTC version 2, since

then P'(x) = p(x).

So the density function is the derivative, or rate of change,of the cumulative distribution function.

,

ExampleSketch the density function forthe cdf shown.

ExampleSketch the density function forthe cdf shown.

Slope?

ExampleSketch the density function forthe cdf shown.

Slope?0

ExampleSketch the density function forthe cdf shown.

Slope?0 Slope 1/2

ExampleSketch the density function forthe cdf shown.

Slope?0 Slope 1/2

Slope 0

ExampleSketch the density function forthe cdf shown.

Slope?0 Slope 1/2

Slope 0

Slope 1/2

ExampleSketch the density function forthe cdf shown.

Slope?0 Slope 1/2

Slope 0

Slope 1/2

Slope 0

ExampleSketch the density function forthe cdf shown.

Slope?0 Slope 1/2

Slope 0

Slope 1/2

Slope 0

DensityFunction

DF vs. CDF

You must know which is which.

We work differently with density functions than withcumulative distribution functions.

Another Example

Suppose the cumulative distribution function for the height oftrees in a forest (in feet) is given by

Find the height, x for which exactly half the trees are tallerthan x feet, and half the trees are shorter than x.

x =!b ± b

2! 4ac

2a

Another Example

Find the height, x for which exactly half the trees are tallerthan x feet, and half the trees are shorter than x.

0.1x ! 0.0025x 2= 0.5

!0.0025x 2+ 0.1x ! 0.5 = 0

!0.0025(x 2! 40x + 200) = 0

using quadratic : x = 20 ± 10 2 = 20 !10 2 " 5.86 ft

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

ExampleAssume p(x) is the density function

p(x) =

1

2,!!!if !1! x ! 3

0,!!!if !x < 1!!or !!x > 3

"

#\$

%\$

Let P(x) represent the corresponding

Cumulative Distribution function.

Then (a) For the density function given above, what is the cumulative

distribution function P(x) for values of x between 1 and 3?

(b) P(5) = ?

(c) Choose the correct pair of graphs for p(x)!and!P(x) .

In-class AssignmentThe time to conduct a routine maintenance check on a machine hasa cumulative distribution function P(t), which gives the fraction ofmaintenance checks completed in time less than or equal to tminutes. Values of P(t) are given in the table.

.98.80.38.21.08.030P(t), fraction completed302520151050t, minutes

a. What fraction of maintenance checks are completed in 15 minutesor less?

b. What fraction of maintenance checks take longer than 30minutes?

c. What fraction take between 10 and 15 minutes?

In-class AssignmentThe time to conduct a routine maintenance check on a machine hasa cumulative distribution function P(t), which gives the fraction ofmaintenance checks completed in time less than or equal to tminutes. Values of P(t) are given in the table.

.98.80.38.21.08.030P(t), fraction completed302520151050t, minutes

a. What fraction of maintenance checks are completed in 15 minutesor less? 21%

b. What fraction of maintenance checks take longer than 30minutes? 2%

c. What fraction take between 10 and 15 minutes? 13%

Mean and Median

Lesson 21

The MedianThe median is the halfway point: Half thepopulation has a lower value, and half a highervalue.

If p(x) is a density function, then the median of thedistribution is the point M such that

p(x)dx!"

M

# = 0.5

Suppose an insect life span ofmonths, and 0 elsewhere. What’s the median life span?

We need

Then solve for M:

months

Example

Median From CDFIf we have a CDF P(x), the median M is the point where

P(M) = 0.5

(This of course says 1/2 of the population has a value lessthan M!)

CDF: P(t) = t2, 0 ≤ t ≤ 1.

What’s the median of this distribution?

Example

CDF: P(t) = t2, 0 ≤ t ≤ 1.

What’s the median of this distribution?

Example

The Mean

What most people think of as the average:

Add up n values and divide by n.

How should we represent this for something represented by adensity function p(x)?

The MeanWe define the mean of a distribution given by densityfunction p(x) to be

Previous insect population example:

and p(x) = 0 elsewhere.

What’s the mean lifespan?

Example

Previous insect population example:

and p(x) = 0 elsewhere.

What’s the mean lifespan? 8 months.

The mean is slightly below the median. This means

Example

Previous insect population example:

and p(x) = 0 elsewhere.

What’s the mean lifespan? 8 months.

The mean is slightly below the median. This meansmore than half the insects live longer than the meanlifespan.

Example

Example 2From “Another Example”,

p(x) = 0.1! 0.005x

mean = x p(x)dx!"

"

# = x(0

20

# 0.1! 0.005x)dx =

0.1x ! 0.005x2

0

20

# dx = 0.05x2 ! 0.0016 x

3

0

20

= 6.64 ft

GeometryTurns out: the mean is the point where the graph of thedistribution would balance if we cut it out.

Find the mean and median forand zero elsewhere.

Median: Solve for M

Example

Find the mean and median forand zero elsewhere.

Mean: Evaluate

Example

Find the mean and median forand zero elsewhere.

medianmean

Example

A special distribution:

The Normal Distribution

A special distribution:

The Normal Distribution

Here’s an example with µ = 0 and σ = 1:

The distribution is symmetric about x = µ.

So the mean is µ, and so is the median.

σ is called the standard deviation, and describes how spreadout the curve is.

The Normal Distribution

The Normal Distribution

Unfortunately, has no elementary antiderivative.

So we must use numerical means to evaluate integralsinvolving the normal distribution.

Suppose a density function for number of people (inmillions) on the internet at one time were

What are the mean and median?

2

Example

Suppose a density function for number of people (inmillions) on the internet at one time were

What are the mean and median?

Here, µ = 10, so both the mean and median are10 million people.

2

Example

Suppose a density function for number of people (inmillions) on the internet at one time were

What is the standard deviation?

2

Example

Suppose a density function for number of people (inmillions) on the internet at one time were

What is the standard deviation?

Here, we see that σ = 2, so 2 million people.

2

Example

Suppose a density function for number of people (inmillions) on the internet at one time were

What is the standard deviation?

Here, we see that σ = 2, so 2 million people.

2

Example

Suppose a density function for number of people (inmillions) on the internet at one time were

Write an integral for the fraction of time between 8and 12 million people are on the internet.

2

Example

ExampleSuppose a density function for number of people (inmillions) on the internet at one time were

Write an integral for the fraction of time between 8and 12 million people are on the internet.

2

2

How to calculate the required integral?

2

Evaluating the Integral

How to calculate the required integral?

We could use our Simpson’s rule calculator:

2

Evaluating the Integral

Evaluating the IntegralHow to calculate the required integral?

We could use our Simpson’s rule calculator:

2

n !x Result

2 2 0.693237

4 1 0.683058

8 0.5 0.682711

16 0.25 0.682691

32 0.125 0.68269

How to calculate the required integral?

We could use our Simpson’s rule calculator:

2

n !x Result

2 2 0.693237

4 1 0.683058

8 0.5 0.682711

16 0.25 0.682691

32 0.125 0.68269