Problem-Oriented Approaches to Crime Places:

Current & Future Directions

John E. Eck, Ph.D.University of Cincinnati

School of Criminal Justice

If we don't change direction soon, we'll end up where we're going.  Professor Irwin Corey

Conference onInnovative Approaches to Crime Control

9 July 2010Rydges South Bank Hotel, Brisbane

Goldstein – The major police dysfunction is the

Means over Ends Syndromewhile overlooking

what is to be achieved.

A few MEANS

Organization

Crackdowns

Adding police

Procedures

Command meetings

Crime mapping

Intelligence analysis

Special units

Community meetings

Some ENDS

Less crime

Reduced disorder

Improved traffic flow

Fewer vehicle accidents

Increased fairness

Less domestic violence

Orderly protests

Less drug violence

Worrying over what to do

Era of Professional Policing

5051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80

2

4

6

8

10

12

Age of Community Policing

Strategy proliferation

Information invasionPeriod of police anxiety

Era of good news research

The Development & Context of Problem-Oriented Policing

1950 - 2008

US Homicides/100 K

Problem-Oriented Policing & Environmental Criminology

Goldstein publishes POP articleCohen & Felson publish RAT

Newport News POP project begins

POP Guides begun

POP Center incorporated

ABA Studies Discretion Crisis

Period of bad news research

Goldstein with Chicago PD

1st POP Conference

Rising Place Consciousness

SCANNING ANALYSIS

RESPONSEASSESSMENT

POP is Evidence Intensive

What is the evidence of a problem? What is the

evidence of its causes?

What is the evidence for a

solution?

What is the evidence it worked?

POP Facilitated the Rise of Place-Based Thinking

Offend

er Target

Place

Handl

er Guardian

Manager

crime

Places are important because:• They can facilitate crime• Crime is concentrated at a few• Police know more about them• They yield practical solutions

Crime is Concentrated at a Few PlacesA UNIVERSAL LAW OF CRIME*

Highest PLACES RANKED BY NUMBERS OF CRIME Lowest (none)

Amount of Crim

e

A few places have a great deal of crime

Most places have little or NO crimes

* And maybe everything else.

Example: Crime Concentration in Cincinnati Apartment Buildings 2006

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 705 1409 2113 2817 3521 4225 4929 5633 6337 7041 7745 8449 9153 9857 10561

Nu

mb

er o

f Cri

mes

Building ID

77.05% of apartment buildings had no crimes

10,672 total apartment buildings experienced 4,615 crimes

The worst 10% of addresses have 30.88% of crimes

NON-ADDRESSES:Aggregations of

addressesMany variables &

complexNo one in charge

Neighborhoods are NOT Places Street segments

might be places

Addresses, corners, parcels etc

Hot spots are not places,but usually contain hot places.

8

ADDRESSES:Small & simpleFewer variablesSomeone in

charge

What is a Place?

What Place Managers Do*

• Organize Space – control of physical features

• Regulate Conduct – encouragement and discouragement of behaviors

• Control Access – who gets in

• Acquire Resources – how it stays in business

Possible causes of the problem& things that need changing

Sources of resistance & leverage

*From Tamara Madensen

Why Should We Focus on Places & Managers?

Place managers have the ability to make the work of criminals hard or easy.

Most make the criminal’s work hard.

A few make it easy – they facilitate crime.

Changing their behavior reduces crime.

Manager Offender Target

POP and Shifting Responsibility

• Whose problem is it? police or enablers?

• Should the public subsidize enablers?

• Should enablers take responsibility for the problem, and become preventers?

• What is the best way to convert enablers to preventers?

Crime is Pollution*

=

* Acknowledgements to Graham Farrell and Graeme Newman.

My daughter, who graduated from college this year, helped me with much of what follows.

Internalizing Crime Costs

• Place users, neighbors & government bear the costs of crime.

• When crime is produced by businesses– Prices of goods and services under priced,

or– Owners increase profits from exporting

crime costs

• Get place managers to assume the costs of the crime they produce – they will then produce less.

Principles

1. Those who enable crime should bear some of the costs of crime.

2. Those who do not enable crime should not bear the costs.

3. Compliance should be rewarded, to the extent it is successful.

4. Non-compliance should not be rewarded.

Means v Ends Strategies

Number of employees Barriers to accessSecurity featuresLightingRecording retentionTraining proficiencyPhysical layoutOther__________

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 610

100

200

300

400

500

600

Before Mean

After Mean

Target Level

Crimes

Time

MEANS ENDS

Set standards that must be met and

enforce compliance with standards.

Set performance target for crimes that must be met and enforce compliance (means for compliance are mostly

irrelevant).

Some Heretical Remarks Against Evidence

Government funded Evidence based* place practices are for the most part:

1. Oversold – we have far less evidence than proponents suggest.2. Impractical -- there are too many interventions and situations to

study. 3. Slow -- any single study takes years to produce results.4. Unsustainable -- the funding does not exist and is unlikely to

come along. 5. Uncertain – they are usually based on a few studies, that are too

general. 6. Unsound – they based on the misguided notion that we prove

what works rather than reject what does not. 7. Unsuitable – they do not work for the circumstances where

government interventions are most needed: high harm / low probability events.

8. Inefficient – most place interventions are small scale and locally adapted, so evidence based practices will not pay off.

9. Unfair -- they subsidize private entities who could pay for the research, if they found it helpful.

QED: Private entities should pay for evidence, or accept the risk of bad practices, rather than publicly fund academics to slowly produce uncertain evidence.

* As advocated by the Campbell Collaborative, for example.

Alternatives for Crime Place Regulation

Means/Standards Ends/PerformanceCommand Subsidize Tax/Charge Cap & Trade

HOW IT WORKS

Require devices or procedures or face penalty

Get assistance for use of devices or procedure

Stay below a set level or receive charge

Crimes allowed if sufficient permits. Permits are tradable

BEST IF THERE ARE

Evidence based standards

Evidence based standards

Clear, few exceptions, & accurate measures

Accurate measures. Many places in the market. Big differences in prevention costs.

EXAMPLES 2 Clerk rule, Airport security

Landlord training Cincinnati caps on apt. calls. False alarm caps.

none

ADVANTAGES Applicable to high harm / low probability events

Reduced political resistance

Encourages innovation. Low evidence requirement.

Rewards efficient crime reduction . Lowers & internalizes information costs.

DIFFICULTIES Stifles innovation, highly inefficient

Stifles innovation, highly inefficient

Treats all crime places the same regardless of prevention costs.

Has not been tried for crime prevention

The Evolution of Policing Crime Places

Police Repeatedly Address Problems

Police Regulate Standards of Prevention

Police Regulate Outcome Performance

Police Handle Calls

Police Crackdown on Hotspots

STANDARDPOLICING

HOT SPOTS POLICING

PROBLEM-ORIENTEDPOLICING

I – POP ?

Leading edge

Modal style

Evidence of tactical effectiveness unimportant

Evidence of tactical effectiveness very important

Evidence of tactical effectiveness less important

Trailing edge

Principles of Place Prevention

1. Focus on addresses – the bigger the area the less information and control.

2. Do the worst first – its more effective, more efficient, and reduces side effects.

3. Hold owners accountable – their actions (or inactions) facilitate crime.

4. Measure performance – provides flexibility and assures improvements.

What is the Future of Policing, if this Works?

• Less crime at places• Less concentration of crime at places• Lower utility of place & geographic

analysis• Greater randomness of crime

geographically– Uncertain value of victim and offender

focus– Greater emphasis on reactive policing

strategies

• Goal of policing is to eliminate patterns &

• Makes policing more traditional