Problem Solving / Decision Making Chapter 2 - 1

Problem Solving /Decision Making

Kepner-TregoeThe New Rational Manager

Chapter 2

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Chapter 2 Contents

Conditions & Skills of Problem Solving

Structure of a Problem The Process of Problem Analysis

(PA)

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People and Problems

People like to solve problems and will seek them out if four conditions are met they posses the skills need to solve the

problem they experience success in using those

skills they are rewarded for being successful they do not fear failure

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Problem Analysis

Problem Analysis (PA) provides the skills needed to explain any situation in which an expected level of performance is not being achieved and in which the cause of the unacceptable performance is unknown.

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PA Continued

We are concerned with the way in which information is used to approach deviation in performance.

Decision making based on FACTS and DATA!

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Problems Not Solved

We’ve all experienced the “solved” problem that isn’t really solved.

Problem solving by extrapolation need solution quick - no time rely on memories past similar problems past successes

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K-T’s View of Problem Solving vs Decision Making

A decision requires answers to questions of the form: How? Which?

A problem always requires an answer to the question: Why?

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The Two Forms of Problems

Performance once met the SHOULD and no longer does. See Figure 1 (W p 25, B p 37)

ACTUAL performance has always been below SHOULD. See Figure 2 (W p 25, B p 37)

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Techniques of PA

State the Problem Specify the Problem Develop Possible Causes Test Possible Causes Determine the Most Probable Cause Verify Assumptions, Observe,

Experiment, or Try a Fix and Monitor

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Case History

Review the Leaking Soybean Oil Filter case

It is used extensively throughout the remainder of the chapter

Also review the PA_Worksheet template

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Problem Statement

Name the Problem Be precise Is the deviation from SHOULD clear Is the cause unknown

Case “Number One Filter Leaking Oil”

An important paragraph (W p 29, not in B but I will provide)

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Specify the Problem

Describe the problem in detail using four dimensions: What - identify the deviation we are

trying to explain Where - location of the deviation When - timing of the deviation Extent - magnitude of the deviation

See Fig 3, (W p 30, B p 41-42) - IS col.

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IS and IS NOT

Any problem can be described by answering the IS specifying questions question wording may need to be

modified to suit; especially for a human performance problem

establish problem detection facts & data Next we need a basis of comparison

What COULD BE but IS NOT

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IS NOT

Nothing is more conducive to sound analysis than some relevant basis of comparison

Search in all four dimensions looking for Closest Logical Comparison

This narrows the scope of the search for cause; isolates distinguishing features

Fig 4, (W p 33, B p 44-45) - IS NOT col.

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Develop Possible Causes

We will use Distinctions and Changes to lead us to Possible Causes.

As we proceed, remember: knowledge and experience are key brainstorm - don’t close too quickly “cast a large net”

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Distinctions

Ask “what is distinctive about (the IS data) when compared with (the IS NOT data)?” for all specifying questions in all

dimensions. See Figure 5, (W p 36-37, B p 48-

49)

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Changes

We now search for the of change between acceptable and unacceptable performance (remember Figure 1)

What changed in, on, around, or about each Distinction?

See Figure 6, (W p 39, B p 51) - Distinction column

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Possible Causes

If all relevant information about a problem has been obtained, the explanation of cause will emerge

Ask “how could this distinction (or this change) have produced the deviation described in the problem statement.

See Possible Causes on pages (W p 40- 41, B p 52-53)

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Test Possible Causes

Test Possible Causes Does it explain the WHAT, WHERE, WHEN,

and EXTENT? Does it require no (or minimal) additional

assumptions to make it work? Are necessary assumptions reasonable?

Identify the most likely possible cause.

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Confirm Cause

Confirmation seeks to verify the cause and effect relationship additional information additional actions

Observe Experiment Fix and Monitor

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Most Common Causes of Failure

Using inaccurate or vague information Insufficiently identification of key

distinctions and changes Allowing assumptions to distort

judgement PA is a process, not a Panacea

review concluding comments (W p 46 - 47, B p 54 - 55)