Problem solving Lecture 3

14 November, 10-13

Johan Brink

C22

Today

• Problem solving

• Working Hypothesis

• The 7 ‘new’ management methods

Problem solving & Decision making

• Rationality analytics vs. Intuition – Intuition is based on cognitive

pattern recognition, matching abstracts and heuristics

– Intuitive idea• Rapid • Analytical implication, ‘test’ • Then action/implementation

– People rely on a limited number of heuristic principles which reduce complex tasks into simpler judgmental operations (Tversky and Kahneman 1974)

Troubleshooting

• System knowledge • Procedural

knowledge • Strategic knowledge

Expert systems

1) Diagnosis, Top down

2) Data retrieval – added info, match & analogies

3) Consequences. If then must this also be true…

Problem solving

• Decomposed systems– NK: Parts (N) and

degree of interrelations (K)

– Divide– Abstraction &

Reduction

Problem solving

• Framing the problem– Different

perspectives– Different theories– Analogy

What is a complex problem?

• Novel task that the subject is unfamiliar with

• Availability of information about the problem – transparency

• Precision of goal definition – (including multiple goals, contradictory goals)

• Complexity –as number of variables and type of relationship

• Stability of problem, dynamics• Richness of semantic embedding

Working hypothesis

Define – fact –what is the problem?

• Test– Revise , test

again…

• Facts matters• Connect to theory

& information

Complex problem solvingInternal (Problem solver)

• Experience (Memory)– Effect likelihood of success– Influence the strategies

• Cognitive variables (Information processing)

– General intelligence– Background knowledge– Monitoring and evaluation strategies– Cognitive styles

• Non cognitive variables– Self-confidence– Perseverance– Motivation– Enjoyment

External (Environment)• Problem structure

– Semantics– Transparency of task– Complexity

• Problem context– Embeddedness of task– Familiar context

• Environmental factors– Feedback– Peer pressure

Given Goal

TOOLS

BARRIERS

Working hypothesis

• Focus• Logics

– Mutually exclusive & Collectively exhaustive

– Clarity– Chain of

arguments

Process consultancy

• Motivates • Guides the process• Implement

• Asking the ‘right’ questions

• Challenge assumptions

• Add facts & theories

Working hypothesis

• Solution selling – arguments for ROI

• Project management• Project control-

management discussions

• After case : Problem-Activity-Result

The 7 ‘new’ management and planning tools

• Affinity Diagram (KJ Method)

• Interrelationship Diagraph (ID)

• Tree Diagram • Prioritization Matrix • Matrix Diagram • Process Decision

Program Chart (PDPC) • Activity Network

Diagram

Affinity Diagram

• This tool takes large amounts of disorganized data and information and enables one to organize it into groupings based on natural relationships

• It was created in the 1960s by Japanese anthropologist Jiro Kawakita.

• ‘Post-it clustering’

Interrelationship Diagraph• This tool displays all the

interrelated cause-and-effect relationships and factors involved in a complex problem and describes desired outcomes.

• The process of creating an interrelationship diagraph helps a group analyze the natural links between different aspects of a complex situation.

• Box- arrow links (cause and effect)

Academic experience

Experience from Consultancy

Newborn baby at home

First time running this course

Enjoy different research methods

Quality and content

Limited feedback

Interrelationship Diagraph

Tree Diagram• This tool is used to break down

broad categories into finer and finer levels of detail.

• It can map levels of details of tasks that are required to accomplish a goal or task.

• It can be used to break down broad general subjects into finer and finer levels of detail. Developing the tree diagram helps one move their thinking from generalities to specifics.– Root-cause– Action plans– Components

Ishikawa - Fishbone

Three Diagram - 5 whys

• Why are we having to divert ambulances?– We don’t have any open ED bays

• Why don’t we have any open ED bays?– We can’t get patients admitted to rooms fast enough.

• Why can’t we get patients into beds faster?– Patients are physically out of the rooms but do not show as

discharged into the system.• Why are they not discharged in the system?

– The nurse did not notify the unit clerk to enter the discharge into the system.

• Why is process dependent on the nurse notifying the unit clerk?– It has always worked that way.

Prioritization Matrix

• This tool is used to prioritize items and describe them in terms of weighted criteria.

• It uses a combination of tree and matrix diagramming techniques to do a pair-wise evaluation of items and to narrow down options to the most desired or most effective.

• Cross-matrix –cause and effect matrix (function-interrelations matrix)

Features Effect

New colors Increase sales

Extended lifetime

Increase costs

Use of modules

Reduced assembly cost

Just in time delivery

Reduced inventory

xxxx zzzz

Matrix Diagram

• This tool shows the relationship between items.

• At each intersection a relationship is either absent or present. – Gives information about

the relationship, such as its strength, the roles played by various individuals or measurements.

Activity Network Diagram

• This tool is used to plan the appropriate sequence or schedule for a set of tasks and related subtasks. – Prior task– This task– Simultaneous tasks– Following tasks– Time for task

• The diagram enables one to determine the critical path (longest sequence of tasks). – Early & last start– Early and last finish

5 days

5 days

2 days 1 days

4 days

Activity Network Diagram

Activity Network Diagram

Process Decision Program Chart (PDPC)

• A useful way of planning is to break down tasks into a hierarchy, using a Tree Diagram.

• The PDPC extends the tree diagram a couple of levels to identify risks and countermeasures for the bottom level tasks.

• Used to highlight risks and identify possible countermeasures (often shown as 'clouds' to indicate their uncertain nature).

No main hypothesis

No access to key data

No access to key managers No

complementary data

No time for presentation

KJ-Shiba: A structured way of solving complex problems

The biggest problem with ...is...1. Each participant gives his/her short view on

the problem (1 min each)2. Write down individually specific

allegations/claims on notes (post its)3. Go through the notes so everyone

understands 4. Organize notes into logical groups5. Put headlines on groups6. Organize groups of global groups7. Put headlines on global groups8. Defining relationships: how do they affect

different groups together?9. Rate the different subgroups: the reasons it

feels the most important?10. Summarize results in a sentence

The biggest promlem is…

Three times last week we were short of

staff

Lack of

resources

Short sentances. Maximum of 2-3 rows.

Fact based. Specific allegations/claims.

Step 1 & 2

The biggest problem is...

Read.Explain.Clarify.

Add.

OK!

?…!

OK!

OK!

OK!

Step 3

The biggest problem is...

OK!

OK!

OK!

OK!

Step 4 - Sort

OK!

OK!

The biggest problem is...

OK!

OK!

OK!

OK!

Step 5 – Label: level one

OK!

OK!

Aaaaa...Bbbb...

Cccccc...Dddddd...

The biggest problem is...

OK!

OK!

OK!

OK!

Step 6 & 7 – Label: level two

OK!

OK!

Aaaaa...Bbbb...

Cccccc...Dddddd...

Xxxx...

The biggest problem is...

OK!

OK!

OK!

OK!

Step 8 – Relations

OK!

OK!

Aaaaa...Bbbb...

Cccccc...Dddddd...

Xxxx...

The biggest problem is...xxx

OK!

OK!

OK!

OK!

Step 9 & 10 – Vote & ‘Sum it up’

OK!

OK!

Aaaaa...Bbbb...

Cccccc...Dddddd...

Xxxx...

Short assignment

• Do a short KJ-Shiba exercise in groups of 6~8 student

• Prepare to present your results along the process in front of the class (brief)

• Suggested Questions/’problems’ to work with:– How do I write a really good Master thesis?– How to I get a really good job after graduation?– Or come up with a suitable question yourselves…