process for port master planning
TRANSCRIPT
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Process for Port Master Planning
Presented by
Kerry Simpson, P.E.
Vice President, Marine Terminals
AAPA Port Executive Management Seminar
Merida, Mexico
December 2014
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Process for Port Master Planning
Moffatt & Nichol
• Founded in 1945 in southern California to
serve the evolving Naval, Port and
Maritime Industries
• 550+ employees; 27 offices (North
America, Europe, Latin America, Middle
East, Pacific Rim)
• A recognized leader in marine terminal
planning, analysis, design, and goods
movement economics
• Marine terminal specialists made up of
Planners, Engineers, and Economists2
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Process for Port Master Planning
Process for Port Master Planning
• Understanding the Influences:
– Demand
– Land
– Environmental
– Access
– Operations
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Process for Port Master Planning
Process for Port Master Planning
• Process will include:
– Economic, market, & financial analysis
– Port use definition
– Project financing options
– Environmental studies
• Site evaluation
– Facility planning
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Process for Port Master Planning
Economic, Market, & Financial Analysis
• Market forecast
• Market share analysis
• Pricing analysis
• Competition analysis
– Least Cost Market Area (LCMA)
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Process for Port Master Planning
Market Forecast
• Container, RoRo, and bulk cargo forecasts– Long term global economic trends
– Structural economic changes
– Supply chain analysis
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15E
20
20E
20
25E
20
30E
Re
al G
DP
TEU
Vo
lum
es
TEU GDP
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Process for Port Master Planning
Example of Containerized Cargo Forecast
Mexico is the largest economy in Central America and second largest in Latin America, trailing only Brazil
• Mexico gateway (import and export) volume is driven by demand from growing manufacturing and consumer sectors
• Transhipment volumes are driven by ports on the Pacific Coast of Central America who continue to rely on hub-and-spoke transhipment services.
• The recent energy reform being enacted could provide significant stimulus to the economy and trade
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Process for Port Master Planning
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• Historical & Projected GDP & TEU Growth
Example of Containerinzed Cargo Forecast
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Process for Port Master Planning
Market Share Analysis
Share of Mexico’s container volume by state
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Process for Port Master Planning
Pricing Analysis
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Cost Segments of Import Logistics Route
1,500 250 200450
2,400
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Ocean Voyage THC 1 Demurrage Local Drayage One Way Cost
Tra
nsp
ort
Co
sts
(U
SD
)
Domestic SegmentInternational Segment
Factory, crossdock or DC – value-added
services performedLocal drayage or long-haul trucking to DC or factoryStorage Costs
Terminal Handling Charge
Ocean Voyage Slot Cost
Ocean voyage costs
Illustrative cost structure for truck moves
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Process for Port Master Planning
Competition Analysis
Cost differential for LZC over MZO
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Process for Port Master Planning
Project Financing
• Public source
• Private source
• Combination of public & private sources
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Process for Port Master Planning
Project Financing
• Success of a port is influenced by port authority, private port operators, and shipping lines:
– Public Port Authorities
• Investment in ports and transportation infrastructure (road & rail systems)
• Transparent institutional duties and responsibilities
• Non restrictive and stable import and export rules
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Process for Port Master Planning
Reliable Transportation Infrastructure Example
Alameda Corridor
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Process for Port Master Planning
Project Financing
– Private Port Operators
• Availability of capital to develop or improve a project
• Improve capacity by optimizing all terminal systems
– Shipping Lines
• Continue to demand for improvement in vessel productivity
• Demand in predictability of vessel productivity
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Process for Port Master Planning
Port Development Roles
• Port Type
– Common use port (owner/operator)
– Landlord port
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OPERATOR
SHIPPING LINES
SHIPPING LINE
SHIPPING LINEOWNED OPERATION
Responsible for:- Planning- Design- Construction
- Infrastructure- Buildings
Responsible for: - Equipment,- IT systems,- O & M
SHIPPING LINESSHIPPING LINES SHIPPING LINES
OPERATOR
Port Authority & LandlordLease the Terminal for 20-30
YearsOwner/Operator
ResponsibleFor ALL Development
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Process for Port Master Planning
Environmental Studies
• Key Site Evaluations include:
– Geotechnical Investigation
– Coastal & Navigational Studies
– Environmental Permitting
– Environmental Risk Analysis
– Constructability Analysis
– Construction material availability analysis
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Process for Port Master Planning
Environmental Studies
• Geotechnical Investigation– Establish site design condition
– Initial studies to evaluate site geology and seismicity
– Subsurface investigations to determine • Depths of varying soil conditions (loose soil, rock, sand, clay) with respect to
soil stability and load bearing capacity.
– Landfill recommendations
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Process for Port Master Planning
Environmental Studies
• Coastal & Navigational Studies– Wave climate modeling
– Develop alternative harbor layouts
– Investigate alongshore sediment transport
– Hydrology, hydraulics, and sedimentation studies
– Navigational channel, berth dredging, and land reclamation plan
– Develop breakwater conceptual design
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Process for Port Master Planning
Wave Climate Modeling Example
• POLA Pier 400
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San Pedro
Harbor
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Process for Port Master Planning
Environmental Studies
• Identify permit requirements, approval process, and schedule
• Risk Assessment
– Hazardous materials and cleanup requirements
– Environmental impact to local area
• Especially from operational pollution.
– Any requirements for project mitigations particularly from the creation of landfill
– Wildlife Habitat Mitigation
– Water Quality
– Storm Water Management
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Process for Port Master Planning
Environmental Studies
• Site Access – Vessel, Road, Rail
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Process for Port Master Planning
Environmental Studies
• Utility Availability/Reliability
– Electrical Power
– Water
– Sanitary Sewer System
– Other Utilities
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Process for Port Master Planning
Facility Planning
• Purpose to Balance
– Berth
– Container Yard
– Gate
– Rail Yard
• To Provide
– Adequate capacity
– Required productivity
– Predictable cost / opex
– Weekly reliability24
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Process for Port Master Planning
Terminal Business Case is to Recieve/Deliver Cargo from/ to Vessel, Train, & Truck; and Manage Cargo in the Storage
Yard
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Vessel- Up to 14,000 ctr per call- Regular schedule with some variation- Demand for short port stay time
Train- “Call size” 600 or less- tight and regularschedule
Truck“Call size” normally 1 to 2 ctr- Almost random appearance- Demand for short turn time
Container terminal- to handle- to store- to sort and consolidate
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Process for Port Master Planning
Use of Simulation in Developing proven Master Plan
• Simulation FlexTerm to develop proven master plan
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Process for Port Master Planning
Conclusion
• The Port Master Planning Process
– The application of
• Economic analysis
• Environmental studies
• Planning tools
– To understand the port project influences
• That are aligned with your development responsibility
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Process for Port Master Planning
Process for Port Master Planning
Muchas Gracias
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Process for Port Master Planning
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Process for Port Master Planning
Port Master Planning
• Panama Canal expansion may be a Game Changer for some ports – The PC expansion will result in larger vessels transiting the canal
– New Panamax vessel capacity = 250% of Panamax vessel capacity
– Initially, there will be fewer vessels
– Cargo will concentrate in a fewer ports and will cause pressure on logistic chain
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Process for Port Master Planning
Port Master Planning
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13
Containers
32m
9 +
5 =
14 H
C
Co
nta
iners
39m
19 Containers
49m
11 +
8 =
19 H
C
Co
nta
iners
57m
135 containers per bay
/ Quay Crane
9 hours Disch + Load
320 containers per bay
/ Quay Crane
20 hours Disch + Load
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Process for Port Master Planning
Port Master Planning
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
< 2K 2K - 4K 4K - 5.1K 5.1K - 7.5K 7.5K - 10K 10K-13.3K > 13.3K
Fleet Order Book
"Panamax"
"Post-Panamax"
Global Fleet Composition by Capacity
New Panamax
New Post-Panamax
(Suez / Trans-Pacific)
Panamax
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
< 2K 2K - 4K 4K - 5.1K 5.1K - 7.5K 7.5K - 10K 10K-13.3K > 13.3K
Fleet Order Book
"Panamax"
"Post-Panamax"
Global Fleet Composition by Capacity
New Panamax
New Post-Panamax
(Suez / Trans-Pacific)
Panamax
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Process for Port Master Planning
Port Master Planning
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Limitation to vessel sizes
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Process for Port Master Planning
Port Master Planning
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Limitation to vessel sizes
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Process for Port Master Planning
Vessel / Service Forecast
Source: ACP35
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. . . . .Panamax vs New Panamax STS Cranes
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Panamax New PanamaxSingle Trolley
Twin 20’ Spreader
Single Trolley
Twin 20’ / Tandem 40’ Spreader?
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Containers
per bay
320
Containers
per bay
35m 47m
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. . . . .STS Crane Dimensions
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158
201218 226
136155 166
185
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
8,200 13,000 18,000 22,000
Fee
t
Vessel Size
Outreach and Lift Height
Required Outreach incl 2.0M overrun
Recommended Lift Height Above Rails
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Process for Port Master Planning
“Terminal of the Future”Singapore – MN Next Generation Container Port Competition
• 20M TEU per year
• 80% Transshipment
2,500m
1,0
00m
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2,500m
1,0
00m
• 200,000 slots
• 78 STS cranes
• 200 Yard cranes
• 27 Landside transfer cranes
• Recessed terminal “AGV” railway
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Process for Port Master Planning
If automation is an option
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• None automated well optimized terminal may be a solution for many terminals
AGV’s AShC’s
WS ASC’sLandside Transfer
Dual Trolley STS Cranes
LS ASC’s
Landside Transfer
ASC’s
End-Loaded Twin ASC Terminal
Side-Loaded Twin ASC Terminal
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. . . . .New Generation of STS Cranes
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. . . . .New Generation of STS Cranes
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Manual
Driver Assist or
AutomatedAutomated
Tandem / Twin / Quad
25-30 cycles per hr
Single
40-50 cycles
per hr
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Process for Port Master Planning
New Generation of Horizontal Transport
• Detailed gathering and distributing tasks to/from storage
– Move any box, from any location to any location at any time
• Must be rubber-tired
– AGV (battery operated)
– AShC (hybrid diesel)
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Process for Port Master Planning
New Generation of ASC
• End-loaded stacking/retrieval cranes
• Side-loaded stacking / retrieval with landside transfer cranes
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. . . . .Automated Straddle Carriers & RTGS
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Process for Port Master Planning
Flexible Terminal Master Plan
• Develop a master plan with a provision to change from one mode of cargo to another with minimal investment
– Start with RoRo, bulk, or break bulk
– If the economic trend changes to containerized cargo, make the required changes when needed
• Develop a master plan for container terminals with provision to convert from non-automated to automated
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Process for Port Master Planning
Phased Terminal Development is a Challenge
• To minimize the impact of the first phase
– Offsite satellite terminal
– Build expansion area first
– Increase the density
– Lose some of the business
• Capacity ahead of demand for subsequent phases
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Phased Development is a major challenge and requires a well coordinated plan
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Process for Port Master Planning
Phased Terminal Development is a Challenge
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18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
Sta
rt
Duri
ng
Ph
ase
1
Aft
er
Ph
ase
1
Duri
ng
Ph
ase
2
Aft
er
Ph
ase
2
Duri
ng
Ph
ase
3
Aft
er
Ph
ase
3
Duri
ng
Ph
ase
4
Aft
er
Ph
ase
4
Duri
ng
Ph
ase
5
Aft
er
Ph
ase
5Sto
rag
e C
ap
ac
ity (
Co
nta
ine
rs)
Project XStorage Capacity during Construction Phases
Total Static Capacity
Phased Total Storage Capacity
Baseline Total Storage Capacity