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Table of Contents

UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication (Q4 2016)……… 4

Population …………………………………………………………………………….. 7 1.1 Metro Vancouver Population 2006 – Present

1.2 Metro Vancouver Population Growth Rate (%yoy)

1.3 British Columbia Interprovincial Migration

1.4 British Columbia International Migration

1.5 British Columbia Net Migration

1.6 BC’s Population Growth Breakdown

Economic Indicators ……………………………………………………………... 8 2.1 Bank of Canada 5 Year Posted Rate (%)

2.2 Consumer Price Index, Canada, BC, Metro Vancouver

2.3 Metro Vancouver Labour Force Totals: 2006 – Present

2.4 BC Unemployment Rate

2.5 Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 2006 – Present

2.6 Canada GDP: 2006 – Present

Economic Indicators ……………………………………………………………... 9 3.1 Budgetary Balance - Canada

3.2 BC Investment in New Construction: 2006 – Present

3.3 Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars)

3.4 BC Bankruptcies

3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close)

3.6 Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded

Housing Economic Indicators …………………………………………….... 10 4.1 Homeowner Protection Office Single Family Registrations

4.2 Homeowner Protection Office Multi-Family Registrations

Housing Economic Indicators………………….……………………………. 11 5.1 CMHC Townhome Starts

5.2 CMHC Apartment Starts

5.3 CMHC Single Family Starts

5.4 Residential Building Permit Values, Metro Vancouver

5.5 Statistics Canada Housing Price Index, BC, Metro Vancouver

5.6 CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates

New Home Data: Concrete Condominiums ……………………………12 6.1 Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing

6.2 Concrete Condominium Sales

6.3 Concrete Condominium Inventory Levels

6.4 Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

Q4-2016

Table of Contents

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New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums …………………….. 13 7.1 Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing

7.2 Wood Frame Condominium Sales

7.3 Wood Frame Condominium Inventory Levels

7.4 Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

New Home Data: Townhomes …………………………………………….... 14 8.1 Townhome Projects Actively Marketing

8.2 Townhome Sales

8.3 Townhome Inventory Levels

8.4 Townhome Standing Inventory Levels

UA Affordability Index: New Home Data ………………………………. 15 9.1 UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums

9.2 UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums

9.3 UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes

Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver……….... 16 10.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings

10.2 Apartment Re-Sale Prices

10.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings

10.4 Attached Re-Sale Prices

10.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings

10.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices

Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board………….……………………………... 17 11.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings





11.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices

Methodology & Definitions ……………………………………………………18 Definitions

Prices

Income

Assumed Down Payments

Analytical Methods

Other Assumptions

Sources ………………………………………………………………………………….19

Sources

Q4-2016

Table of Contents





UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication

Welcome to the latest edition of UDI Pacific’s “State of the Market” quarterly publication. The Q4-2016 the “State

of the Market” report provides up to date statistics and trends on the new home and re-sale housing markets as

well as the amalgamation of relevant economic statistics that impact the housing market. Note that the report

also includes the UDI/Urban Analytics Housing Affordability Index which is derived from Urban Analytics’ New

Home Source Live database as well as Homeowner Protection Office BC’s new home registry statistics.

Population Growth & Housing Starts

The above table shows the trend of Metro Vancouver’s housing starts and population change over the past four

years. Overall housing starts for Q4-2016 (4,603) are up eight percent from the same quarter last year and were

also up 10 percent compared to the five year average.

Metro Vancouver’s net population change was up 6,600, which is down 34 percent from the same quarter last

year and down 25 percent from the five year average.

Q4-2016

Table of Contents

4149 42613694

6157

53274603

10900

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9000

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Metro Vancouver Housing Starts and Population Change (15+)

Housing Starts

PopulationChange (15+)

2.4

1.92.1

2.8

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2.62.3

1.9

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1.71.4

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Metro Vancouver Population Change (15+) per Housing Start





UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication (Q4 2016)

The previous chart shows Metro Vancouver’s Population growth to housing starts. The current ratio

of 1.4 new residents per housing start is down from the 1.7 recorded last quarter, and down from the

2.3 recorded in Q4-2015. This ratio is below the five year average of 2.2 new residents per housing

start and should become more favorable to buyers/tenants if this ratio persists.

Local Economic Factors

The most notable recent events have been the continued measures undertaken by the Provincial

Government in attempts to impact the overall housing market. In December, the Provincial

Government announced that it would be providing a five year interest-free loan for first time buyers

(up to $37,500) to assist them with getting into the housing market. In late January, the Provincial

Government also announced that it plans on lifting the 15 percent foreign buyer tax on people who

have work permits and pay taxes in the province. BC’s economy continues to remain reasonably

strong, however, its official unemployment rate edged up slightly to 5.1%.

Metro Vancouver’s new home market rebounded from its Q3 slowdown and once again showed signs

of strength. A combined total of 4,347 new multi-family home sales were recorded in Q4-2016 and

while this total is down 15 percent from a near record total recorded in Q4-2015, note that they were

up 46 percent from last quarter. Concrete condominiums sales were particularly strong – the 3,211

concrete condominium sales represent 74 percent of overall fourth quarter sales totals. At the end of

Q4-2016, there were a total of 3,416 new multi-family homes available to purchase, which is down 30

percent from the sale quarter last year and still near historic lows. Low released and unsold inventory

levels continue to be a primary contributor to the lack of new home affordability across the region.

Global Economic Factors

The most impactful global event was the recent election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the

United States and the subsequent initiatives undertaken within his first few weeks in office. One of the

more notable initiatives is the temporary travel ban on seven countries. While the ramifications of this

policy is uncertain, our stance is that immigration controls such as these only further elevate the status

of Canada as a safe and desirable place to immigrate to. The DJIA stock index moved up near the 20,000

mark and has re-established an all-time high and Canada’s TSX composite index moved up above the

15,200 mark and is also nearing all-time highs.

We hope that you enjoy the most recent edition of the report and find it to be informative, helpful and

convenient. As always, we welcome any feedback or comments on the publication.

Sincerely,

Urban Analytics Inc.

Michael Ferreira Jon Bennest

Q4-2016

Table of Contents





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1,750

1,800

1,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

2,200

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Th

ou

san

ds

-0.50%

-0.25%

0.00%

0.25%

0.50%

0.75%

1.00%

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

-3,000

-1,000

1,000

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

-4,000-2,000

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,000

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Population

Insights & Comments:

Metro Vancouver’s population as of Q4-2016 is now estimated at 2,177,200 residents.

This is up 30,700 residents over the past year and up 6,600 or a 0.30% increase from last quarter’s estimate.

The interprovincial migration increase of 3,579 residents this past quarter was the lowest total recorded since Q1-2014.

International migration for the most recent update (Q3-2016) was net positive by 14,798, with a net positive year-to-date migration of 33,572 in 2016.

International migration as of Q3-2016 is up 33% and down 20% when compared to the same quarter in 2015 and 2014, respectively.

Net migration for the most recent update (Q3-2016) was up 18,377 residents, which was the fifth highest total recorded over the past decade.

1.1 Metro Vancouver Population 2006 - Present

1.2 Metro Vancouver Population Growth Rate (%)

1.3 British Columbia Interprovincial Migration

1.4 British Columbia International Migration

1.5 British Columbia Net Migration

1.6 British Columbia Growth Breakdown

Q4-2016

Table of Contents





$1,300

$1,375

$1,450

$1,525

$1,600

$1,675

$1,750

$1,825

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

BIl

lio

ns

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Th

ou

san

ds

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Ind

ex

Canada Metro Vancouver

$10

$11

$12

$13

$14

$15

$16

$17

$18

$19

$20

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Bil

lio

ns

Economic Indicators

Insights & Comments: Bank of Canada 5 year conventional mortgage rates continued to remain unchanged in Q4-2016 since Q2-2015. The current rate of 4.64% is an all-time low.

Note that the majority of large banks in Canada (BMO, TD, HSBC, Scotiabank, etc.) are currently offering lower 5 year fixed rates (ranging between 2.89% and 4.49%).

Also note, however, that new mortgage rules came into effect in Q3-2016, which requires mortgages with less than a 20% down payment to qualify at the Bank of

Canada’s 5 year posted rates.

Canada’s GDP as of the most recent update was up 15.3 Billion in Q3-2016 compared to the previous quarter.

Unemployment rates in BC have increased by 4% since Q3-2016 up to 5.1% in Q4-2016.

The CPI for Canada (128.4) and Metro Vancouver (124.7) are up 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively, as compared to the same quarter last year.

Retail sales were also up as of the most recent update, increasing 5.6% compared to the same quarter last year.

2.1 Bank of Canada 5 Year Posted Rate (%)

2.2 Consumer Price Index

2.3 Metro Vancouver: Labour Totals 2006 - Present

2.4 British Columbia Unemployment Rate

2.5 Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 2006 - Present

2.6 Canada GDP: 2006 - Present

Q4-2016

Table of Contents





-$80

-$60

-$40

-$20

$0

$20

$40

$60

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

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Q42016

Bil

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$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

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Q42015

Q42016

Mil

lio

ns

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

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Q42015

Q42016

$0

$25

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$75

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200

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Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Bil

lio

ns

900

1,400

1,900

2,400

2,900

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Th

ou

san

ds

Economic Indicators


After OPEC nations decided to cut production of crude oil in November 2016, prices reached $52.61 USD per barrel as of the end of Q4-2016: an increase of 16%

relative to November and a 44% increase from the same quarter last year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to climb, closing at 19,763 at the end of Q4-2016.

This marks a 21% increase by the end of Q4-2016 since the last dip seen in Q3-2015.

The TSX moved up to just over the 15,200 mark, which is up 4% compared to the 14,726 reported at the end of the third quarter of this year.

Only 1,095 consumer and 30 business bankruptcies were recorded in BC last quarter; the lowest combined total recorded in over 10 years.

BC had the highest investment in new construction in Q3-2016 of $1.748 Billion. This is the highest total recorded within the last 10 years.

Canada decreased its budgetary deficit by 17% from Q2-2016 to Q3-2016, recording a $26.6 billion deficit this past quarter.

3.1 Budgetary Balance, Canada

3.2 BC Investment in New Construction: 2006 - Present

3.3 Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars)

3.4 British Columbia Bankruptcies

3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close)

3.6 Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded

Q4-2016

Table of Contents





200

300

400

500

600

700

Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016

Vancouver Proper Inner Metro Outer Metro

200

600

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2200

2600

Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016

Vancouver Proper Inner Metro Outer Metro

Housing Economic Indicators

All new homes in the province must be registered with the Homeowner Protection Office (HPO), a Branch of BC Housing.

The registration data are collected by the HPO branch in the public registry. The majority of registered new homes are

enrolled with home warranty insurance which protects against construction defects. The registration of new homes must

occur prior to the issuance of building permits and housing starts. The new home registrations measure residential

construction activities at the beginning of a project before construction commences.

- Single includes the new single detached homes enrolled with home warranty insurance or with approved Owner Builder Authorizations.

- Multi includes the new homes in multi-unit buildings (2 or more dwelling units) enrolled with home warranty insurance and does not include new homes in multi-unit rental buildings (purpose built rentals).

Note: Some minor adjustments may be made to the figures over time as registrations are withdrawn or cancelled from home warranty insurance from time to time.


There were 1,313 HPO single family registrations recorded throughout Metro Vancouver in Q4-2016 which is down nearly 10% from the same quarter last year and

down just over 11% from the same quarter in 2014.

Overall HPO single family registrations in Metro Vancouver have been trending downwards since the second quarter of 2016.

There were 4,788 multi-family registrations recorded in Metro Vancouver in Q4-2016, which roughly doubled compared to the 2,236 recorded in Q4-2015.

This overall rise is attributed to an almost three-fold increase in multi-family registrants to 3,050 in Q4-2016 from Inner Metro, when compared to the same quarter

last year.

Despite this upward trend, there was a leveling in Outer Metro where new multi-family registrations were down only 1% compared to Q4-2015.

4.1 New Single Family Registrations

4.2 New Multi-Family Registrations

Q4-2016

Table of Contents

A study has been conducted by the Bank of Canada in collaboration with BC Housing to assess whether new home registration data under the Homeowner Protection Act can be used as a leading indicator for economic activity in B.C. The research finds that quarterly increases in new registrations for single-detached homes have statistically significant predictive content for growth in real GDP over the next one to three quarters, and provide stronger signals compared to housing starts and building permits over this forecast horizon. The research report has been published under Staff Discussion Papers on the website of the Bank of Canada. http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/sdp2016-3.pdf





http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/sdp2016-3.pdf

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Ind

ex

Metro Vancouver BC

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Vancouver North Shore Tri-Cities/Ridge Meadows

Surrey/Langley/White Rock Richmond/Delta Burnaby/New Westminster

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

Q32006

Q32007

Q32008

Q32009

Q32010

Q32011

Q32012

Q32013

Q32014

Q32015

Q32016

Mil

lio

ns

0

70

140

210

280

350

420

490

560

630

700

Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016

Sta

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Inner Metro Outer Metro Vancouver

0

225

450

675

900

1125

1350

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Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016

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rts


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100

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600

700

800

Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016

Sta

rts


Housing Economic Indicators


There were 4,603 overall new housing starts recorded in Q4-2016, which is down 14% from the previous quarter but up 8% compared to the same quarter last year.

There were 916 single family housing starts recorded in Q4-2016, which is down 28% from last quarter and up just over 0.5% compared to the same quarter last

year.

There were 791 townhome starts in Q4-2016, which is up just over 11% compared to last quarter but up 13% compared to the same quarter last year.

Outer Metro represented 72% of overall new townhome starts in Q4-2016, which remains proportionally similar to last quarter.

There were 2,896 condominium starts recorded in Q4-2016, which is down 9% from last quarter but up 9% compared to the same quarter last year.

Vancouver and Inner Metro represented 48% and 39% of overall condominium starts in Q4-2016, respectively.

5.1 CMHC Townhome Starts

5.2 CMHC Apartment Starts

5.3 CMHC Single Family Starts

5.4 Residential Building Permits

5.5 Statistics Canada Housing Price Index

5.6 CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates

Q4-2016

Table of Contents





0

10

20

30

40

50

60

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Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016

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les


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New Home Data: Concrete Condominiums


There are currently 88 actively selling concrete condominium projects in Metro Vancouver, which represents a 32% decrease from the same quarter last year and a

33% decrease from the same quarter in 2014.

There were 3,191 concrete condominium sales in Q4-2016, which is down 3% from the same quarter last year but up 44% from the same quarter in 2014.

Following declining sales numbers in Q3-2016, increases in sales in Q4-2016 were seen in both Vancouver Proper and Inner Metro.

Concrete condominium sales this quarter in Inner Metro have surpassed the previous peak seen in Q1-2016, and continue to be strongest in this region since Q4-

2015.

This can be attributed to the launch of major projects in the Burnaby/New West and Coquitlam sub-markets this quarter, which collectively brought just over 2,000

units to market during Q4-2016. Included within these are towers at City of Lougheed, Station Square, Imperial, Triomphe, and Lougheed Heights.

These projects accounted for a combined 1,783 sales during the quarter.

The following sales totals were recorded in Q4-2016 – 546 sales in Vancouver proper, 2,609 sales in Inner Metro, and 36 sales in Outer Metro.

Overall released and unsold inventory of concrete condominiums (1884) is down 34% from the same quarter last year and represents the third lowest total recorded

over the past six years.

There are only 26 concrete condominium units in Metro Vancouver that are completed and unsold.

This represents the lowest standing inventory level recorded over the past five years.

6.1 Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing

6.2 Concrete Condominium Sales

6.3 Concrete Condominium Inventory Levels

6.4 Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

Table of Contents

Q4-2016





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400

500

600

700

800

Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016

Inv

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New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums


There are currently 41 actively selling wood frame condominium projects in Metro Vancouver in Q4-2016; only up by 1 project from last quarter.

Q4-2016 actively selling wood frame condominium projects are down 59% from the same quarter last year and down 65% from the same quarter of 2014.

Overall new wood frame condominium sales were recorded at 676 in Q4-2016, which is down 21% compared to the same quarter last year and down 13% when

compared to the same quarter in 2014.

Vancouver Proper is the only region which saw an increase in sales relative to Q3-2016.

Wood frame condominium sales are also a result of being restricted by low levels of supply.

Q4-2016 sales of wood frame condominiums in both Outer (235) and Inner Metro (279) declined relative to Q3-2016, at 27% and 1%, respectively.

Overall released and unsold inventory of wood frame condominiums (739) in Q4-2016 is down 51% from the same quarter last year and represents the third lowest

total recorded over the past six years.

There are currently 27 new wood frame condominiums in Metro Vancouver that are completed and unsold.

This represents a 92% decrease in standing inventory compared to the 340 recorded in Q4-2015 and also represents a six year low.

Note that this six year low follows a significant depletion of standing inventory in the Outer Metro region from a six-year high of 667 in Q1-2014.

7.1 Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing

7.2 Wood Frame Condominium Sales

7.3 Wood Frame Condominium Inventory Levels

7.4 Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels

Q4-2016

Table of Contents





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10

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30

40

50

60

70

Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016

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200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016

Sa

les


0

150

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450

600

750

900

Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016

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100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016

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New Home Data: Townhomes


There are currently 64 actively selling new townhome projects in Metro Vancouver.

This number is down only 1 project relative to last quarter and down 11% compared to the same quarter in 2015.

All regions of Metro Vancouver saw an unchanged number of townhome projects actively selling this quarter, with the exception of Outer Metro which went from 36

projects in Q3-2016 to 35 in Q4-2016.

There were 460 new townhome sales recorded in Metro Vancouver in Q4-2016, which is down 59% compared to Q4-2015 and lower than Q4-2014 totals by 31%.

Note that townhome sales in Outer Metro (352) represent 77% of overall new townhome sales this past quarter.

Outer Metro is also the only region to experience an increase in sales relative to last quarter.

Note that the number of released and unsold townhome units in Inner Metro and Vancouver were recorded at 216 and 67, respectively.

Overall released and unsold townhomes (681) in Q4-2016, is up 200% compared to an almost six-year low in Q1-2016, but up 20% compared to Q4-2015.

There are currently 8 townhomes in Metro Vancouver that are completed and unsold, which represents a year-long low (falling to only 2 units in Q2-2016) over the

last five years.

8.1 Townhome Projects Actively Marketing

8.2 Townhome Sales

8.3 Townhome Inventory Levels

8.4 Townhome Standing Inventory Levels

Q4-2016

Table of Contents





71% 72% 72% 71% 71% 70%74%

74% 74% 76% 77% 77% 75% 74% 74% 72%

54%56%

54% 54% 53% 52%55% 54% 55%

53% 52% 53%51%

44% 42%

34%34%

39% 40% 40% 39% 39%41% 39% 36%

32% 32%30%

21%

13%9% 10%

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Outer Metro Inner Metro Vancouver

73%74%

73%74%

72% 72%75%

73% 73% 72%74% 73% 74%

68% 67%66%64%

62% 62% 62% 60% 59%63% 62% 62% 62% 60% 60%

57%55% 53%

49%

42% 40% 40%

42%

35%

40% 41% 39% 40% 38% 40%37%

31%

27%30% 29%

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016


65% 68% 67% 67% 65% 66%70% 68% 70% 69%

64%68%

65%

58%54%

46%53% 54% 54% 54% 50%

47%

52% 51% 51%

59%49% 48% 49%

37%33%

36%26%

16% 16%

22%

19%23% 25%

33% 35%

27%32%

22%

27%

11% 9% 8%

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016


71% 72% 72% 71% 71% 70%74% 74% 74% 76% 77% 77% 75% 74% 74% 72%

54% 56%54% 54% 53%

52%55% 54% 55%

53% 52% 53%51%

44% 42%

34%34%39% 40% 40% 39% 39% 41%

39%36% 32% 32% 30%

21%

13%9% 10%

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016


75% 73% 74% 73% 74% 72% 72%75%

73% 73% 72%74% 73% 74%

68% 67%64% 62% 62% 62%

60% 59%

63%62% 62% 62% 60% 60%

57%55% 53%

49%

42%40% 40%

42%

35%

40% 41%39%

40%38%

40%37%

31%27%

30% 29%

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016


65%68% 67% 67%

65% 66%70% 68% 70% 69%

64%68%

65%

58%54%

46%53% 54% 54% 54%

50% 47%52% 51% 51%

59%

49% 48% 49%

37%33%

36%

26%

16% 16%22%

19%23% 25%

33% 35%

27%32%

22%

27%

11% 9% 8%

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016


UA Affordability Index: New Home Data


Affordability decreased for most locations and product forms in Q4-2016, except townhomes in Inner Metro and concrete condominiums in Vancouver.

The largest decline in concrete condominiums occured in Inner Metro, which fell 8.0% from 42.2% last quarter.

Townhomes in Inner Metro saw an increase in affordability of 3.7% (up to 36.3%) relative to last quarter, and a slight increase in concrete condominium affordability

occurred in Vancouver to 9.8% from 9.0% last quarter.

New wood frame condominiums in all regions saw a decline in affordability as a result of declining inventory in Metro Vancouver.

46.3% of new townhomes in Outer Metro were affordable to the average working household in Q4-2016, down 7.4% recorded last quarter.

Single family affordability decreased in Vancouver Proper and Inner Metro while Outer Metro saw an increase of 2.5% compared to Q3-2016, representing the second

consecutive quarterly increase after a near four year decline.

9.1 UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums

9.1 UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums





Q4-2016

Table of Contents





0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Sales Listings

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Th

ou

san

ds

Greater Vancouver Benchmark Price

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Q32006

Q32007

Q32008

Q32009

Q32010

Q32011

Q32012

Q32013

Q32014

Q32015

Q32016

Sales Listings

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Th

ou

san

ds


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Sales Listings

$300

$500

$700

$900

$1,100

$1,300

$1,500

$1,700

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Th

ou

san

ds


Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver


4,014 apartment, 1,243 townhome, and 2,791 single family re-sales were recorded in Q4-2016.

Apartment re-sales were down 4%, townhome re-sales were down 21% and single family re-sales were down 22% compared to the same quarter last year.

Average benchmark prices were up 18% for apartments, up 32% for townhomes, and up 24% for single family homes when compared to the same quarter last year.

Average benchmark prices, decreased marginally when compared to Q3-2016; apartment benchmark prices were down 0.1% from $512,233, down just over 1% for

townhomes from $674,533, and down 4% from $1,578,333 for single family homes.

Q4-2016 benchmark prices for all sectors saw the first decrease relative to all-time highs over the last decade which were established in Q3-2016.

The Average Benchmark Price of all product types in Greater Vancouver in Q4-2016 are as follows: Apartment - $511,567, Townhome - $666,033 Single Family -

$1,513,467.

10.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings





10.6 Single Detached Re-Sale Prices

Q4-2016

Table of Contents





0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016

Sales Active Listings

$220$225$230$235$240$245$250$255$260$265$270$275$280$285$290$295

Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016

Th

ou

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ds

Average Price

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016


$310

$330

$350

$370

$390

$410

$430

$450

$470

$490

Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016

Th

ou

san

ds

Average Price

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016

Th

ou

san

ds

Average Price

Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board

Insights & Comments: In Q4-2016, the relevant Fraser Valley municipalities recorded 794 apartment re-sales, 796 townhome re-sales and 977 single family re-sales.

Apartment re-sales were up 21%, townhome re-sales were down 7%, and single family re-sales were down 52% compared to the same quarter last year.

The number of active listings for all product types dropped at the end of Q4-2016.

Since Q3-2016, the number of active listings for Apartments, Townhomes, and Single Family have decreased 34%, 6%, and 23%, respectively.

Overall average benchmark prices increased only for townhomes which continued their upward trend, yet at a declining rate in Q4-2016.

Dissimilarly, both single family homes and apartments experienced declines in average benchmark price after a steady increase over roughly the past seven years.

The Average Benchmark Price of all product types in the Fraser Valley in Q4-2016 are as follows: Apartment - $284,862, Townhome - $475,625, Single Family $1,021,228.

11.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings





11.6 Single Detached Re-Sale Prices

Q4-2016

Table of Contents

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016






Methodology & Definitions – Affordability Index

Definitions

Inner Metro: West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, South Delta, Coquitlam, Port Moody & Port

Coquitlam.

Outer Metro: Langley, North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge.

Vancouver: Downtown Vancouver, Vancouver West and Vancouver East.

Prices

Prices for the new home market were collected from actively selling new multi-family projects in Metro Vancouver. Re-sale prices were

collected from the Real Estate Boards of Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley (with median and benchmark prices used).

Income

The Index uses household income information from Statistics Canada data from the 2010 Household Survey.

Assumed Down Payments

Wood frame and concrete condominiums: 20%

Townhomes: 30%

The reason for the difference is the assumption that townhome buyers are more likely to be move-up buyers with equity built up in

their existing property.

Analytical Methods

Five year, fixed rate 30-year amortization mortgages were used, taking an average of the best rates at eight banks at the time of

analysis.

Other Assumptions

The affordability index assumes that a person can afford a maximum of 32 percent of their gross family income to go toward mortgage

payments.

Q4-2016

Table of Contents





Sources

Sources

Q3-2016

1.1 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey


1.3 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates




2.1 - Bank of Canada

2.2 - BC Stats Consumer Price Index



2.5 - Statistics Canada Retail Trade by Province

2.6 - Statistics Canada Gross Domestic Product

3.1 - Stats Canada Revenue, Expenditure & Budget

3.2 - Statistics Canada Investment in New Housing

3.3 - Index Mundi (Monthly Spot Oil Prices)

3.4 - Industry Canada Insolvency Statistics

3.5 - Statistics Canada Stock Market Statistics

3.6 - Statistics Canada Stock Market Statistics

4.1 BC Housing (data collected by the HPO branch)

- New Single Family Registrations

4.2 BC Housing (data collected by the HPO branch)

- New Multi-Family Registrations

5.1 - CMHC Housing Now – Vancouver & Abbotsford



5.4 - Statistics Canada Building Permits

5.5 - Statistics Canada New Housing Price Indexes

5.6 - CMHC Rental Market Report

6.1 - UA New Home Source Database




Table of Contents









9.1 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites



10.1 - REBGV Monthly Statistics






11.1 - FVREB Monthly Statistics










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