product developments in manmade fibres: is … · product developments in manmade fibres: is cotton...
TRANSCRIPT
33rd INTERNATIONAL COTTON CONFERENCE BREMEN, MARCH 16 - 18, 2016
1 / 1
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS IN MANMADE FIBRES: IS COTTON ABLE TO COMPETE?
Bruna Angel Fibres Consultant PCI Fibres, a Wood Mackenzie business
ABSTRACT
In the last 25 years global demand for fibres has increased more rapidly than population. Population rose by 37% to 7.3 billion people while fibres grew by 124% to 88 million tonnes.
While population is an obvious driver of fibre demand there have been other reasons for the high growth of fibre volumes. These include rising incomes, more affordable fibre, textiles and apparel products as well as changing attitudes to traditional textile products – used increasingly as disposable fashion.
Equally as important has been:
• The development of fibres to meet aesthetic and performance challenges in traditional textile products (such as intrinsic chemical properties, cross-section, diameter, texturing and bonding).
• Product and process innovation in both traditional and non- traditional textile product areas where the use of fibres has facilitated market growth. These include woven and non-woven products in markets as diverse as medical, hygiene, transport, construction and agricultural.
Manmade fibres contributed 90% of the growth in fibre consumption in the last 25 years with volumes rising from 19 million tonnes in 1990 to 63 million tonnes in 2015. Consumption of cotton increased from 19 million tons to 24 million tons in this period.
This presentation explores key fibre and product developments behind the extraordinary volume growth in manmade fibres as well as future challenges and opportunities.
P d t d l t i MMFProduct developments in MMF:is cotton able to compete?
33rd International Cotton Conference BremenMarch 16 2016
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
Agenda
Textile fibre volumes:» Fibre shares over the last 25 years, today, and a view of the next 15 years.
Cotton’s share slides as polyester grows towards 60% of fibre consumption.
» Cotton still dominant in the staple fibre market, but under pressure from polyester filament and viscose staple.p
As population grows, will cotton keep up with additional fibre demand? The challenge of polyester filament to all staple fibres. The growth of textile applications: MMF in apparel, home textiles and industrial
products. Sustainability: a challenge for MMF Sustainability: a challenge for MMF.
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
2
Polyester continues to dominate textile fibre consumption
100 World – Fibre Mill Consumption
80
60
lion
tonn
es
20
40Mil
0
20
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Polyester F+S Cotton Cellulosic F+S Nylon F+S Polypropylene F+S Acrylic Wool
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
3
The vast majority of MMF production growth has been in China
World – MMF Production by Region80
90
60
70
s
40
50
illio
n to
nnes
20
30
M
0
10
Americas EE/WE/T AME/Aus S Asia India China/HK JKT
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
4
Excess capacity at polyester filament and staple 2015
45
50
35
40
s
20
25
30
llion
tonn
es
10
15
20Mi
0
5
10
0Filament Staple
Capacty Production
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
5
Asia cotton and polyester staple prices
2 5
3.0
500
600
2.0
2.5
400
500
1.5300
Pric
e ra
tio
US
c/kg
0.5
1.0
100
200
0.00
-90
-91
-92
-93
-94
-95
-96
-97
-98
-99
-00
-01
-02
-03
-04
-05
-06
-07
-08
-09
-10
n-11 -12
-13
-14
-15
-16
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Cotlook A Index PSF 1.4/1.5x38mm den CFR Asia cotton/PSF price ratio (RHS)
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
6
China cotton and polyester staple prices
2.5
500
600
1 5
2.0
400
500
o
1.0
1.5
300
Pric
e ra
tio
US
c/kg
0.5100
200
0.00
-05
-05
-06
-06
-07
-07
-08
-08
-09
-09
-10
-10
-11
-11
-12
-12
-13
-13
-14
-14
-15
-15
-16
Jan-
Jul-
Jan-
Jul-
Jan-
Jul-
Jan-
Jul-
Jan-
Jul-
Jan-
Jul-
Jan-
Jul-
Jan-
Jul-
Jan-
Jul-
Jan-
Jul-
Jan-
Jul-
Jan-
CCI Type 3128B China PSF 1.4/1.5x38mm den China cotton/PSF price ratio (RHS)
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
7
Cotton losing share and volume to MMF in women’s dresses
25,00014,000 Annual US Imports of Womens' or Girls' Dresses, Not Knitted '000 DOZ
20,00011,200
15,0008,400
5 000
10,000
2 800
5,600
0
5,000
0
2,800
002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mainly cotton Mainly synthetic Mainly artificial Other Total (RHS)
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
8Source: GTIS/PCI Wood Mackenzie
Incremental growth in fibre textile mill consumption and population
1.4
35
40
1.0
1.2
30
35
0.6
0.820
25
n pe
ople
n to
nnes
0.410
15
Bill
ioin
Mill
ion
0.0
0.2
0
5
1985 2000 2000 2015 2015 2030-0.2-5
1985-2000 2000-2015 2015-2030
Wool Cotton MMF Population (RHS)
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
9
Final demand for MMF now exceeds that for cotton in all regions
18
20 Final Demand by Region, Total Volumes - 2015
12
14
16
es
6
8
10
Mill
ion
Tonn
2
4
6M
0
Wool Cotton MMF
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
10
Is there potential for higher cotton demand in China?
40
45 Final Demand by Region, kg per Capita - 2015
30
35
15
20
25
kg/c
apita
5
10
15
0
Wool Cotton MMF
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
11
End-use mix - % share global all-fibres demand 1990-2025Global all-fibres demand by end-use share (%)
90%100%
A l H h ld I d t i l
Global all-fibres demand by end-use share (%)
60%70%80%90%
are
Apparel Household Industrial
%30%40%50%
% s
ha
0%10%20%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20251990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
% share 1990 2025Apparel 69.4% 53.4%
Industrial 14.9% 26.1%
Household 15.7% 20.5%
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
12
MMF filament growing faster than staple fibres
50
60 World – Fibre Mill Consumption
40
50
es
30
Mill
ion
tonn
e
10
20
M
01980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Cotton Polyester S Cellulosic S Acrylic SWool Polypropylene S Nylon S MMF filament
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
13
Polyester staple fibre – macro end-use applicationsGlobal PSF macro end use shares % spinning shareMillion mt Global PSF macro end-use shares
9020
% spinning shareMillion mt
NonwovensSpinning
% ( S)80
Filling % spinning share (RHS)
70
50
6010
40
50
300
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
14
202020151990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2025
Key PSF market segments (ktes) 2015
Market segment % share
Hygiene / wipes 15%Hygiene / wipes 15%
Fillings / waddings 27%
T h i l 2%Technical 2%
Carpets 4%
Home furnishings 16%
Auto 2%
Activewear 3%
Apparel 33%
Volume total ktes 15868
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
15
End-use definitions – Apparel Textile Product FormatKnitting Weaving Nonwovens Other
Intimate apparel Textile filamentPE, PA, viscose, cotton, wool
Textile filamentSpun yarns (minority)PE, PA, viscose, cotton
Staple nonwovensPE, viscose, minor PP
Textile filamentSpun yarns (minority)PE, PA, viscose
Swimwear Textile filamentPE PA cotton
Textile filamentSpun yarns (minority)PE, PA, cotton Spun yarns (minority)PE, PA, cotton
Sportswear Textile filamentSpun yarnsPE, PA, cotton, wool, viscose ACR
Textile filamentSpun yarns PE, PA, viscose, cotton
Staple nonwovensMembranesPE / others
Textile filamentSpun yarns (minority)PE, PA, viscose, cotton
viscose, ACR
Hosiery Textile filamentSpun yarnsPA, PE, cotton, ACR, wool
Outerwear Textile filament Textile filament Staple nonwovens Textile filamentSpun yarnsPE, PA, viscose, cotton, ACR
Spun yarnsMinor IF yarnsPE, PA, viscose, cotton, ACR, wool
Spunbond nonwovensPA, PE
Spun yarnsPE, PA, viscose, cotton, ACR
Career apparel / Textile filament Textile filament Staple nonwovens Textile filamentppuniforms Spun yarns
PE, PA, viscose, cotton, ACR
Spun yarnsMinor IF yarnsPE, PA, viscose, cotton, ACR, wool
pSpunbond nonwovensPA, PE, PP, viscose
Spun yarnsPE, PA, viscose, cotton, ACR
Ethnic costumes Textile filament Textile filamentSpun yarnsPE, PA, cotton
Spun yarnsPE, PA, viscose, cotton
Diapers and personal hygiene
Staple nonwovensSpunbonded nonwovensPE, PP, viscose.
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
16*PE=polyester, PA=polyamide, PP=polypropylene, ACR=acrylic. Viscose includes other cellulosic variants.
yg , ,
End-use definitions – Household Textile Product Format
Knitting Weaving Nonwovens Other
Curtains / upholstery
Textile filamentSpun yarnsPE, PA, viscose,
Textile filamentSpun yarns PE, PA, viscose,
Staple nonwovensSpunbond nonwovens
Textile filamentSpun yarnsPE, PA, viscose,PE, PA, viscose,
cotton, ACRPE, PA, viscose, cotton, ACR
nonwovensPE, PP, PA, viscose
PE, PA, viscose, cotton
Carpets / floorcoverings
Filament yarnsSpun yarns PE, PP, cotton, ACR,
Staple nonwovensSpunbond nonwovens
BCF filamentSpun yarnsPE, PP, PA, wool
wool PE, PP, PA
Linen Textile filamentSpun yarnsPE, viscose, cotton
Textile filamentSpun yarns PE, PA, viscose,
tt
Staple nonwovensSpunbond nonwovensPE PP icotton PE, PP, viscose
Towels Textile filamentSpun yarnsPE, viscose, cotton
Spun yarns PE, viscose, cotton
Staple nonwovensPE, PP, viscose
Wipes/cleaning
Staple nonwovensSpunbondedPE, PP, viscose
All other Textile filamentSpun yarns
Textile filamentSpun yarns
Staple nonwovensSpunbond
Textile filamentSpun yarns
*PE=polyester, PA=polyamide, PP=polypropylene, ACR=acrylic. Viscose includes other cellulosic variants
Spun yarnsPE, PP, cotton, ACR
Spun yarnsPE, PP, cotton, ACR
Spunbond nonwovensPE, PP, viscose
Spun yarnsPE, PA, viscose, cotton
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
17
End-use definitions – Industrial Textile Product FormatKnitting Weaving Nonwovens OtherKnitting Weaving Nonwovens Other
Automotive textiles
Textile filamentSpun yarns (minor)PE, PA
Textile filamentSpun yarns (minor)PE, PA
Staple nonwovensPE, PA, PP
Industrial filamentPE, PA
Light denier Industrial filament Industrial filamentLight denier industrial
Industrial filamentPE, PA
Industrial filamentPE, PA
Heavy denier industrial
Weft insertion / warp knitPE
Industrial filamentPE, PA, rayon
Industrial filamentPE, PA, rayon
Airbags Industrial filamentPE, PA
Geotextiles Industrial filamentPE, PP
Staple nonwovensSpunbond nonwovensPE, PP,
Filtration Textile filamentIndustrial filamentPE, PA, high performance yarns
Staple nonwovensSpunbond nonwovensPE, PA, PP, high performance
Composites /Concrete / Reinforcement
Staple, filamentPP, glass fibre, steel etc.
Paper Staplereinforcement PP
All other Textile filamentIndustrial filamentSpun yarns (minor)PE PP cotton ACR
Textile filamentIndustrial filamentSpun yarns (minor)PE PP cotton ACR
Staple nonwovensSpunbond nonwovens PE, PP, PA, rayon
Textile filamentIndustrial filamentSpun yarns (minor)PE PP rayon ACR
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
18
PE, PP, cotton, ACR PE, PP, cotton, ACR PE, PP, rayon, ACR
*PE=polyester, PA=polyamide, PP=polypropylene, ACR=acrylic. Viscose includes other cellulosic variants
Polyester filament functionalities
Yarn functionality can be modified by various methods….
filament/fibre thickness touch/softness, brushability, drape
bright/dullness level appearance (lustre, shine, matt)
filament/fibre cross section shape appearance & functionality
dye-uptake levels standard dye, deep dye
shrinkage
stretch/recovery
strength/tenacity
bulk
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
19
Adjusting fibre cross-section is the first step to differentiated productVery broadly speaking, cross sections are used as follows:
Trilobal, octolobal, tape, diabolo (ie different solid shapes) alter the lustre (and to a lesser degree handle) of the fabric.A h ll d f ( C l G l) i ll b i iA channelled surface (eg Coolmax, Gcool) is generally about moisture transportation, wicking, etc.Hollow cross sections are used to regulate thermal properties (often to store heat) .Certain cross sections are used in bicomponent yarns to alter the differentialCertain cross sections are used in bicomponent yarns to alter the differential shrinkage of the two polymer components and so achieve properties like stretch, different colour values, etc.
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
20
Challenge: marine litter. Plastic waste to the oceans, persistent macro particles as well as micro and nano particles
Macro plastics in fishing nets with catch.
Source: ECOALF
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
21
One solution: recycling
Bale of PET bottles ready for recycling
Source: ECOALF
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
22
Polyester filament / staple in rPET
50
million mt Share of polyester variants in rPET
45
40rPETVirgin
30
35
85.6%
20
25
10
15
63.1%
95.8%
5
0 4.2% 98.4%36.9%14.4%
1.6%
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
23
PTF PIFPSFTotal PET
Polyester in apparel - rPET
100% rPET
Source: http://www.nike.com/
20 denier recycled polyesterSource: http://www.eddiebauer.com/
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
24
p
MMF end-product examples addressing product innovation and sustainability
Nike’s Fyknit athletic footwear: Nike Vapor Untouchable: http://news.nike.com/news/nike-vapor-untouchable-cleat-merges-speed-strength-and-sustainabilityg p g y
Adidas/Parley for the Oceans footwear/Primeknit technology: http://news.adidas.com/US/Latest-News/ALL/ADIDAS-AND-PARLEY-FOR-THE-OCEANS-SHOWCASE-SUSTAINABILITY-INNOVATION-AT-UN-CLIMATE-CHANGE-EVENT/s/f66a1b3e-8a9f-48b5-825f-63ddc72c09e7
Aquafil ECONYL ® http://www.econyl.com/
Unifi REPREVE http://repreve.com/G S f f RadiciGroup MERMAIDS challenge – mitigation of the migration of micro and
nano-particles from synthetic textiles during laundering http://www.radicigroup.com/en/news-media/news/radicigroup-and-cnr_ismac-biella-take-up-the-mermaids-challenge-commitment-to-environmental-sustainability-3041330413
ECOALF http://ecoalf.com/us_en/about/
Tamicare http://www.tamicare.com/
Bio-raw materials for MMF.
Trusted commercial intelligencewww.woodmac.com
25
Thank you
Europe +44 131 243 4400Americas +1 713 470 1600Asia Pacific +65 6518 0800
Email [email protected] www.woodmac.com
Wood Mackenzie™, a Verisk Analytics business, is a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world'snatural resources sector. We empower clients to make better strategic decisions, providing objective analysisand advice on assets, companies and markets. For more information visit: www.woodmac.comWOOD MACKENZIE is a trade mark of Wood Mackenzie Limited and is the subject of trade mark registrations and/or applications inthe European Community, the USA and other countries around the world.