production and trade of all meats to expand in 2016 · 2018. 9. 13. · production and trade of all...

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

October 2015

Production and Trade of All Meats to Expand in 2016 Beef and Veal:

• Global production is forecast to rebound 1 percent higher to 59.2 million tons. Continuing herd expansion will drive production higher for major traders – particularly the United States, India, and Brazil. India continues to expand on growing foreign demand; exports account for 48 percent of production compared to only 18 percent for Brazil. Reduced slaughter will drive Australian production lower as inventories have been depleted and the return of favorable pasture conditions will spur herd rebuilding.

• Exports by major traders are forecast 3 percent higher to 9.9 million tons on stronger demand. Gains are expected for most major traders including India, Brazil, and the United States. India will remain the top exporter as demand improves in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. Brazilian exports will rebound as a weaker real increases competitiveness and the reopening of the Chinese market creates new opportunities.

• U.S. production is expected to rise for the first time since 2010 as cattle inventories recover on improved pasture conditions and lower feed costs. Exports are forecast 6 percent higher as growing domestic supplies put downward pressure on prices. A reduction in Australian exports will enable the United States to regain market share in Asia which will offset stagnant shipments to Canada and Mexico.

Pork:

• Global production is forecast virtually unchanged at 112.0 million tons on marginal expansion by most countries. After three consecutive years of contraction, Chinese swine inventories are forecast stable in 2016 as lower feed costs and higher pork prices spur a slight increase in sows and improved efficiency (pigs per sow and industry consolidation). However, Chinese pork production will remain flat as a decline in slaughter offsets heavier weights. Russian production is higher on significant capacity investments, industry consolidation, stable feed prices and robust domestic demand.

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Global Beef Exports Rebound

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India Widens Lead Over Brazil As Top Beef Exporter

Brazil India

• Exports by major traders are forecast 2 percent higher to nearly 7.3 million tons as robust supplies drive prices lower, stimulating consumption. Marginal increases in purchases by most major importers will more than offset a further decline in imports by Russia. Among key suppliers, only the United States will undergo significant export expansion.

• U.S. production is forecast up 1 percent to a record 11.3 million tons on continued strong recovery from PEDv. Exports are forecast over 4 percent higher to 2.4 million tons as competitive prices will bolster shipments to most markets, particularly Mexico.

Broiler Meat:

• Global production is forecast to increase 2 percent to a record 89.3 million tons on expansion by all major traders. After surpassing China to become the second largest producer in 2015, Brazil is expected to continue expanding more rapidly due to stable feed costs and increased exports. India, the fastest growing producer, is expected to increase 8 percent on rising demand by a growing middle class.

• Exports by major traders are forecast to rebound 4 percent to a record 10.7 million tons. Shipments will increase by the top three suppliers, Brazil, the United States, and the EU, which account for more than three quarters of world trade. Exports will be driven by robust supplies placing downward pressure on prices, lower prices compared to other animal proteins, and a weak euro and Brazilian real. Although constrained by lower oil prices and weak economic growth, many smaller markets will have marginal improvements in demand.

• U.S. production is forecast to increase 2 percent to a record 18.4 million tons on heavier

weights and lower feed costs. Exports are expected to rebound 8 percent to 3.2 million tons as lower prices and greater exportable supplies bolster shipments.

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U.S. Broiler Meat Exports Rebound

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Chinese Pork Production Stalls; Rest of World Expands

China Rest of World

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

October 2015

Contents

Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork and Broiler Meat

Special Article: Review of U.S. Tariff Rate Quotas for Beef Imports

Beef

Beef Summary Tables

Cattle Summary Tables

Pork

Pork Summary Tables

Swine Summary Tables

Poultry Meat

Broiler Meat Summary Tables

Notes to Readers


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (p) 2016 (f)

Percent

Change

2015 to

2016

Beef and Veal 58,160 58,527 59,467 59,746 58,443 59,196 1.3%

Pork 103,581 106,868 108,823 110,566 111,458 111,962 0.5%

Broiler Meat 81,159 83,282 84,494 86,549 87,944 89,336 1.6%

Total 242,900 248,677 252,784 256,861 257,845 260,494 1.0%

Beef and Veal 56,517 57,047 57,785 57,708 56,466 57,006 1.0%

Pork 103,170 106,260 108,360 110,044 110,944 111,226 0.3%

Broiler Meat 79,835 81,640 82,987 84,952 86,276 87,376 1.3%

Total 239,522 244,947 249,132 252,704 253,686 255,608 0.8%

Beef and Veal 6,451 6,679 7,489 7,900 7,559 7,711 2.0%

Pork 6,558 6,858 6,597 6,358 6,438 6,466 0.4%

Broiler Meat 8,228 8,540 8,689 8,893 8,639 8,693 0.6%

Total 21,237 22,077 22,775 23,151 22,636 22,870 1.0%

Beef and Veal 8,072 8,138 9,126 9,990 9,601 9,926 3.4%

Pork 6,955 7,268 7,027 6,873 7,145 7,259 1.6%

Broiler Meat 9,573 10,087 10,255 10,470 10,231 10,688 4.5%

Total 24,600 25,493 26,408 27,333 26,977 27,873 3.3%

Beef and Veal 1,263 1,112 1,174 1,167 1,035 1,100 6.3%

Pork 2,357 2,440 2,262 2,203 2,268 2,370 4.5%

Broiler Meat 3,165 3,299 3,332 3,312 2,990 3,221 7.7%

Total 6,785 6,851 6,768 6,682 6,293 6,691 6.3%

Beef and Veal 16% 14% 13% 12% 11% 11%

Pork 34% 34% 32% 32% 32% 33%

Broiler Meat 33% 33% 32% 32% 29% 30%

Combined 28% 27% 26% 24% 23% 24%

Summary:

Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Broiler Meat

Production

Consumption

Notes: Totals include only those countries that make up USDA’s official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not

encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA’s database, which represent

the most important markets in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported

changes periodically.

U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders

Imports

Exports

U.S. Exports

Beef and Veal, Pork: 1,000 Tons Carcass Weight Equivalent / Broiler Meat: 1,000 Tons Ready to Cook Equivalent


Special Article: Review of U.S. Tariff Rate Quotas for Beef Imports

Background on U.S. Beef Trade

The United States is the world’s largest producer of beef, but also imports more than any other

country. U.S. producers specialize in raising high-valued grain-fed cattle, while imports largely

consist of lower-value grass-fed lean product that is processed into ground beef. Overall,

imports accounted for slightly more than 10 percent of beef supplies in 2014.

From 2010-2013, the United States was a net exporter of beef on a volume-basis. However,

imports surpassed exports in 2014 as domestic production declined nearly 6 percent. Falling

production was triggered by severe drought in the Southern plains and high feed prices which

caused farmers to reduce their herds between 2009 and 2014. Reductions in the cow inventory

led to lower production of lean (non-fed) beef increasing demand for lean processing meat.

Lower supplies have led beef prices to accelerate, but demand has been resilient. Rising imports

of both processing beef and table cuts have offset some, but not all, of the lower production.

Elevated cattle prices and improved pasture conditions have spurred expansion in the cattle

sector beginning in 2015 with beef production forecast to increase next year. However, in the

short-term, cow slaughter will be lower as producers retain beef cows for herd rebuilding and

this continues to support demand for imported lean beef.

Beef imports1 totaled $5.3 billion (957,000 tons product weight) in 2014 and exports totaled $6.3

billion (859,000 tons). While imports exceeded exports on volume-basis, the value of exports

was greater due to higher average unit values of exports (grain-fed beef) than imports (lean

processing beef).

Source: FAS Global Agricultural Trade System

Top Suppliers of Imported Beef

Australia was the leading supplier of U.S. beef imports in 2014, while Canada and New Zealand

were a distant second and third. The bulk of shipments from Australia and New Zealand are

frozen boneless beef for processing. Shipments from Canada and Mexico are typically higher-

valued fresh/chilled product and include beef sold as cuts.

1 Beef imports include fresh, chilled and frozen muscle cuts under HS headings 0201 and 0202 and exclude

processed and prepared products which are not subject to U.S. tariff rate quotas.

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2014: Imports of Beef Exceed Exports,

First Time in 5 Years due to tight U.S. supplies

Imports

Exports


Source: FAS Global Agricultural Trade System

Sanitary Requirements for U.S. Beef Imports

Obtaining U.S. beef market access is a multi-step process. Countries must first be approved by

the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) based on animal disease status. APHIS

assesses the risks of introducing animal diseases as a result of trade. In addition, the Food Safety

Inspection Service (FSIS) certify that foreign food regulatory systems employ equivalent

sanitary measures to U.S. standards. Currently, 11 countries are eligible to ship fresh or frozen

beef2to the United States: Australia, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, Honduras, Iceland, Ireland,

Mexico, New Zealand, Nicaragua, and Uruguay.

U.S. Tariff Rate Quotas and Imports of Beef in 2014

U.S. Imports 1/ Tariff-rate quota

Quota fill-

rate

Rate of duty

Country In-quota Above-quota

Tons Million dollars Tons Percent

Canada 189,614 $1,085 Unlimited NA 0% NA

Mexico 108,106 $781 Unlimited NA 0% NA

TRQ countries

Argentina 0 $0 20,000 0% 4.4 cents/kg 26.4%

Australia 344,629 $2,011 418,2142/

82% 0% 21.1%

Japan 143 $12 200 71% 4.4 cents/kg 26.4%

New Zealand 186,248 $960 213,402 87% 4.4 cents/kg 26.4%

Uruguay 19,162 $154 20,000 96% 4.4 cents/kg 26.4%

Other 3/ 55,585 $288 64,805 86% 4.4 cents/kg 26.4%

Total TRQs 605,767 $5,293 716,621 85%

1/ Imports include fresh/chilled and frozen beef only. Prepared and processed products are not subject to TRQs. Volumes are published by

Customs and Border Protection, value is published by U.S. Census Bureau. 2/ Australia’s total TRQ includes a WTO quota of 378,214 plus an FTA quota of 40,000 tons. Excludes 4,000 tons at reduced tariff.

3/ The Other TRQ is open to other countries that do not have a country-specific quota.

Sources: U.S. Customs and Border Protection; FAS Global Agricultural Trade System; U.S. International Trade Commission Harmonized Tariff Schedule 2015.

2 For more information on requirements, see http://www.fsis.usda.gov/wps/portal/fsis/topics/international-

affairs/importing-products.

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Top Suppliers of U.S. Beef Imports,

Australia Widens Lead Over Canada

Other

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New Zealand

Canada

Australia


http://www.fsis.usda.gov/wps/portal/fsis/topics/international-affairs/importing-products

http://www.fsis.usda.gov/wps/portal/fsis/topics/international-affairs/importing-products

U.S. World Trade Organization (WTO) Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs)

As a result of the 1995 WTO Uruguay Round Agreement, the United States adopted a system of

TRQs for imports of beef. The two-tiered system allows a specified volume of imports per

calendar year at a lower (or zero) rate of duty and assigns a higher tariff rate to volumes above-

quota. Two types of U.S. TRQs were established through WTO negotiations:

Country-Specific TRQs: Created for Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Uruguay, and

Argentina (see table).

Other Countries TRQ: Provides preferential-duty access for other countries that are

eligible to ship beef to the United States.

Free Trade Agreement (FTA) TRQs

TRQs are also created via FTAs, which are typically established as a transitional step towards

duty-free access. The following agreements expanded beef market access into the United States:

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA): As of January 2008, NAFTA was

fully implemented, resulting in duty-free and unlimited access for beef among the United

States, Canada and Mexico. Canada and Mexico are among the top suppliers of U.S.

beef imports, accounting for over a third of shipments in 2014.

Australia: Australia received additional quota access in its 2005 FTA with the United

States adding to its WTO quota of 378,214 tons. The agreement allowed supplemental

duty-free access of 15,000 tons in the second year after enactment with a further 5,000

tons added annually or biannually. An additional quota with a reduced duty rate of 21

percent allows 3,500 tons in the first year and rising to 7,000 tons in 2022. In 2015 and

2016, total duty-free quota access is 418,214 tons with a further 4,000 tons at reduced-

duty. Unlimited duty-free access begins in 2023.

CAFTA-DR: The 2004 Dominican Republic-Central America FTA (CAFTA-DR)

established preferential quotas for each of the 6 parties: Costa Rica, the Dominican

Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua (see table). FTA TRQs are

contingent on first filling of the WTO Other Countries quota – currently available to

Costa Rica, Honduras, and Nicaragua – which has yet to happen. Currently, these three

members are eligible to ship beef to the United States and imports totaled $287 million in

2014. Since the agreement was signed, beef imports from CAFTA-DR countries have

risen to nearly 60,000 tons in 2014. In 2020, CAFTA-DR countries will have duty-free

unlimited access.

CAFTA-DR Tariff Rate Quotas

Partners 2014 U.S. Beef Imports FTA TRQs

(2015)

Million dollars Tons Tons

Costa Rica $47 9,631 15,054

Dominican Republic $0 0 2,400

El Salvador $0 0 150

Guatemala $0 0 0

Honduras $15 3,013 750

Nicaragua $226 46,366 15,000

Total of CAFTA-DR $287 59,010 33,354

Source: U.S. International Trade Commission Harmonized Tariff Schedule 2015.


Other FTAs: Access has also been extended to the following countries through their

respective U.S. FTAs: Bahrain, Chile, Colombia, Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Panama, and

Singapore. TRQs are granted during the initial period of implementation and become

unlimited at full implementation. At this time, only Chile is currently eligible to ship

beef to the United States.

Beef Access from Free Trade Agreements

Partner

2015 FTA

TRQs (Tons)

First Year of

Implementation

Full Implementation

(Unlimited Access)

Bahrain Unlimited 2006 2015

Chile Unlimited 2004 2007

Colombia 6,078 2012 2021

Morocco 21,350 2006 2020

Oman 26,573 2009 2018

Panama 439 2012 2026

Singapore Unlimited 2004 2013 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission Harmonized Tariff Schedule 2015

WTO Other Countries TRQ

Eligible countries without a country-specific quota can access the “other countries” TRQ of

64,805 tons. Currently, 5 countries (Costa Rica, Honduras, Iceland, Ireland, and Nicaragua) use

the quota, which provides a preferential duty rate of 4.4 cents per kilogram. Imports above

64,508 must pay the full tariff of 26.4 percent ad valorem.

In 2014, the “other countries quota” reached a fill-rate of 86 percent for the six eligible countries

(see figure), reflecting strong U.S. import demand. The fill-rate has climbed steadily over the

past 10 years from a low of 45 percent in 2005. Once the WTO quota fills, country-specific

TRQs from enacted FTAs will take effect, allowing an additional 33,000 tons for CAFTA-DR

countries. As agreements are fully implemented, FTA partners will receive unlimited access,

reducing pressure on the other countries TRQ.

Quota Allocation

The United States does not intervene in quota allocation; rather this is at the discretion of the

exporting countries. For example, some countries distribute licenses to exporters. Australia

maintains a system by which the quota is filled first-come first-served until reaching a fill-rate of

85 percent. The remaining 15 percent is allocated based on historical quota use3. The “other

countries” quota is first-come first-serve among the eligible countries.

3 For more information on Australia’s quota allocation system, please see:

http://www.agriculture.gov.au/SiteCollectionDocuments/ag-food/quota/red-meat/2014/us-beef-2014-order.pdf


http://www.agriculture.gov.au/SiteCollectionDocuments/ag-food/quota/red-meat/2014/us-beef-2014-order.pdf

Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection

Future U.S. Market Access

If additional countries receive APHIS and FSIS approval to ship fresh/frozen beef, competition

for the other countries quota is likely to accelerate, at least in the short-term. Under the current

scenario, if a new country becomes eligible, such as Brazil, imports could either displace

shipments from other countries or be imported at the above-quota tariff rate. After 2020,

competition by existing countries for the other countries TRQ will lessen as CAFTA-DR is fully

implemented. Nicaragua, which accounted for over 70 percent of quota use in 2014, will have

unlimited access, creating opportunities for other shippers. Further quota expansion could be

obtained through future WTO negotiations (such as further Doha Round discussions) or future

FTAs.

For more information contact | Lindsay Kuberka | [email protected], (202) 644-

4650, USDA-FAS, Office of Global Analysis, Global Commodity Analysis Division

Fill-rate =

82%

87%

0% 96%

86%

Unlimited Unlimited

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U.S. Beef Imports and Quota Fill-Rates in 2014

Imports TRQ


mailto:[email protected]

Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

none

Production

9,6009,4259,7239,6759,3079,030 Brazil

7,5607,5407,4437,3887,7088,114 European Union

6,7856,7506,8906,7306,6236,475 China

4,5004,2004,1003,8003,4913,308 India

2,6802,7402,7002,8502,6202,530 Argentina

2,3002,5502,5952,3592,1522,129 Australia

1,8651,8451,8271,8071,8211,804 Mexico

1,7751,7251,6751,6301,5871,536 Pakistan

1,3001,3551,3701,3801,3801,360 Russia

9751,0251,0991,0491,0601,141 Canada

8,4678,4279,2489,0488,9308,750 Others

47,80747,58248,67047,71646,67946,177 Total Foreign

11,38910,86111,07611,75111,84811,983 United States

59,19658,44359,74659,46758,52758,160 Total

none

Total Dom. Consumption

7,8907,8707,8967,8857,8457,730 Brazil

7,6207,6107,5157,5207,7608,034 European Union

7,4507,3507,2977,0526,6806,449 China

2,4152,5102,5032,6642,4582,320 Argentina

2,3252,2002,0182,0352,0802,040 India

2,0252,0472,2892,3932,3982,346 Russia

1,7301,7651,8391,8731,8361,921 Mexico

1,7061,6611,6171,5761,5381,503 Pakistan

1,2151,2101,2261,2321,2551,237 Japan

901894875805844816 Colombia

10,0589,94911,39111,14210,61410,475 Others

45,33545,06646,46646,17745,30844,871 Total Foreign

11,67111,40011,24211,60811,73911,646 United States

57,00656,46657,70857,78557,04756,517 Total

Notes: May contain meat of other bovines. From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d'Ivoire,

Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the

forecast for that year was released.


Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

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Total Imports

7357009291,0231,027994 Russia

727740739760737745 Japan

7006004174129929 China

500450646473241152 Hong Kong

454400392375370431 Korea, South

370370372376348365 European Union

285290284296301282 Canada

285270270195250217 Egypt

250235205194174167 Malaysia

230200241245187180 Chile

1,7941,7452,0682,1201,9381,956 Others

6,3306,0006,5636,4695,6725,518 Total Foreign

1,3811,5591,3371,0201,007933 United States

7,7117,5597,9007,4896,6796,451 Total

none

Total Exports

2,1752,0002,0821,7651,4111,268 India

1,7751,6251,9091,8491,5241,340 Brazil

1,6251,8151,8511,5931,4071,410 Australia

598590579529517503 New Zealand

410400389326251197 Paraguay

395360350340360320 Uruguay

370375378332335426 Canada

310300300244296445 European Union

300245194166200148 Mexico

265230197186164213 Argentina

603626594622561539 Others

8,8268,5668,8237,9527,0266,809 Total Foreign

1,1001,0351,1671,1741,1121,263 United States

9,9269,6019,9909,1268,1388,072 Total

Notes: May contain meat of other bovines. From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d'Ivoire,

Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the

forecast for that year was released.


Cattle Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

none

Total Cattle Beg. Stks

301,600301,100300,600299,606300,000302,500 India

219,093213,035207,959203,273197,550190,925 Brazil

100,250100,450103,000103,434103,605106,264 China

88,60088,38887,61987,10687,05487,831 European Union

51,99551,54551,54551,09549,59748,156 Argentina

26,15027,60029,29029,00028,50627,550 Australia

18,66519,15219,56419,93020,13419,970 Russia

16,45017,12017,76018,52120,09021,456 Mexico

12,06312,05311,90311,38411,23211,241 Uruguay

11,93011,92012,22012,30512,24512,155 Canada

31,78632,28764,05266,10168,06470,023 Others

878,582874,650905,512901,755898,077898,071 Total Foreign

92,90089,80088,52690,09591,16092,887 United States

971,482964,450994,038991,850989,237990,958 Total

none

Production (Calf Crop)

68,00067,00066,00065,00063,50062,500 India

49,05049,00047,90048,80048,00044,500 China

48,25048,22049,60050,18549,69049,445 Brazil

29,25029,30029,30029,05029,80030,100 European Union

14,00013,70013,30014,00013,70013,100 Argentina

9,5009,5009,56410,2009,1219,614 Australia

6,9256,8506,7506,7006,8006,900 Mexico

6,4066,5206,6706,8206,9207,239 Russia

5,1505,1785,4404,9234,9264,786 New Zealand

4,3754,4004,6064,5164,4624,640 Canada

10,02010,18514,51214,91414,74814,649 Others

250,926249,853253,642255,108251,667247,473 Total Foreign

35,00034,30033,90033,73034,46935,357 United States

285,926284,153287,542288,838286,136282,830 Total

Notes: May contain other bovines. From 2015, Colombia and Venezuela are excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year

conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.


Cattle Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

none

Total Imports

2201702001009570 Egypt

20010023098117103 China

8068749714395 Russia

403545485673 Canada

252028301016 Mexico

8911121412 Japan

3310005 Brazil

000001 Argentina

000000 Australia

011121 Belarus

00566715619339 Others

5764061,1651,1011,056715 Total Foreign

2,0502,2252,3582,0332,2832,107 United States

2,6262,6313,5233,1343,3392,822 Total

none

Total Exports

1,2001,3001,1761,0451,5391,435 Mexico

1,1001,2001,298851620695 Australia

9251,0251,2451,044821696 Canada

600600499504678689 European Union

300300649689512405 Brazil

1401601404178213 Uruguay

5542301124 Ukraine

252279334234 New Zealand

202020192629 China

2020271496 Russia

118623630262 Others

4,3864,6905,2494,4874,6294,268 Total Foreign

8080108161191194 United States

4,4664,7705,3574,6484,8204,462 Total

Notes: May contain other bovines. From 2015, Colombia and Venezuela and excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year

conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.


Pork Selected Countries Summary


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

none

Production

56,50056,37556,71054,93053,42750,604 China

22,90023,00022,53322,35922,52622,953 European Union

3,5103,4513,4003,3353,3303,227 Brazil

2,7802,6302,5102,4002,1752,064 Russia

2,4752,4502,4252,3492,3072,262 Vietnam

1,8801,8401,8051,8221,8441,817 Canada

1,3901,3701,3531,3401,3101,288 Philippines

1,3851,3351,2901,2841,2391,202 Mexico

1,2901,2701,2641,3091,2971,267 Japan

1,2301,2101,2001,2521,086837 Korea, South

5,3085,3695,7065,9185,7735,729 Others

100,648100,300100,19698,29896,31493,250 Total Foreign

11,31411,15810,37010,52510,55410,331 United States

111,962111,458110,566108,823106,868103,581 Total

none


57,14057,20057,16955,40653,80251,108 China

20,58220,66220,38120,14720,38220,822 European Union

2,9792,9293,0243,2673,2393,035 Russia

2,9312,8872,8462,7512,6702,644 Brazil

2,5402,5452,5432,5492,5572,522 Japan

2,4372,4122,3892,3152,2752,238 Vietnam

2,1952,1251,9911,9561,8501,710 Mexico

1,8571,8201,7371,6281,5461,487 Korea, South

1,6091,5791,5521,5111,4461,432 Philippines

928898875892906919 Taiwan

6,6196,5476,8877,2737,1466,916 Others

101,817101,604101,39499,69597,81994,833 Total Foreign

9,4099,3408,6508,6658,4418,337 United States

111,226110,944110,044108,360106,260103,170 Total

Note: From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica,

North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a

month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.


Pork Selected Countries Summary


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

none

Total Imports

1,2501,2701,3321,2231,2591,254 Japan

960920818783706594 Mexico

850845761770730758 China

625600480388502640 Korea, South

400380347399414432 Hong Kong

250230191183194175 Australia

220210200172138145 Philippines

210220214220240204 Canada

2003005158681,077971 Russia

1351301179810597 Singapore

9128319261,0941,129924 Others

6,0125,9365,9016,1986,4946,194 Total Foreign

454502457399364364 United States

6,4666,4386,3586,5976,8586,558 Total

none

Total Exports

2,3302,3502,1662,2272,1652,150 European Union

1,2101,2101,2181,2461,2431,197 Canada

580565556585661584 Brazil

250250277244235244 China

200185163164180139 Chile

1501301171119586 Mexico

454025464 Serbia

403837363641 Australia

404040403632 Vietnam

14128533 South Africa

305763103168118 Others

4,8894,8774,6704,7654,8284,598 Total Foreign

2,3702,2682,2032,2622,4402,357 United States

7,2597,1456,8737,0277,2686,955 Total

Note: From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica,

North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a

month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.


Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

none

Total Beginning Stocks

420,200465,830474,113475,922468,627464,600 China

147,500148,310146,172146,982149,809152,361 European Union

40,15039,39538,84438,57738,33636,652 Brazil

20,12519,40519,08118,81617,25817,231 Russia

13,30013,16512,94012,61012,62512,615 Canada

10,20010,0909,9129,9168,1718,449 Korea, South

9,6009,7009,7759,5109,2769,007 Mexico

9,5909,4409,5379,6859,7359,768 Japan

7,3007,5137,9227,5777,3737,960 Ukraine

2,6502,9243,2674,2433,9893,887 Belarus

2,3002,3082,0982,1382,2852,289 Others

682,915728,080733,661735,976727,484724,819 Total Foreign

68,02567,77664,77566,22466,25964,725 United States

750,940795,856798,436802,200793,743789,544 Total

none

Production (Pig Crop)

705,000667,000729,927720,971707,427670,196 China

263,000264,000261,750257,000257,600264,655 European Union

39,75038,65037,00036,00034,50030,650 Russia

39,63539,05038,47037,90037,70037,750 Brazil

28,00027,85027,07827,37628,34728,500 Canada

19,00017,85017,60017,80017,15016,975 Mexico

17,35017,10016,81216,95316,34013,308 Korea, South

17,20017,15017,05017,35017,25017,000 Japan

9,0009,3009,5279,4658,5388,109 Ukraine

5,2505,1504,8505,3255,7755,425 Belarus

4,8504,8504,9854,7374,5814,659 Others

1,148,0351,107,9501,165,0491,150,8771,135,2081,097,227 Total Foreign

122,975120,203114,856115,135116,655115,086 United States

1,271,0101,228,1531,279,9051,266,0121,251,8631,212,313 Total

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.


Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

none

Total Imports

505014103112 Mexico

302622231225112 Ukraine

553123 Canada

335315 Belarus

229242015 China

221121 European Union

22221116 Korea, South

11886340782 Russia

000000 Australia

000112 Brazil

001111 Others

959165360634949 Total Foreign

5,0005,5254,9474,9485,6565,795 United States

5,0955,6165,0125,3086,2906,744 Total

none

Total Exports

5,0505,5504,9604,7845,6765,821 Canada

1,6001,7001,7371,6841,6431,563 China

6005805685697411,010 European Union

232426 Brazil

000000 Australia

00052103113 Belarus

000000 Japan

000000 Korea, South

000000 Mexico

000000 Russia

001011 Others

7,2527,8337,2687,0938,1668,514 Total Foreign


7,3007,8807,2877,1278,2228,544 Total

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.


Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

none

Production

13,48013,08012,69212,30812,64512,863 Brazil

13,10013,02513,00013,35013,70013,200 China

10,84510,60010,3309,9109,5659,320 European Union

4,2003,9003,7253,4503,1602,900 India

3,6503,5503,2603,0102,8302,575 Russia

3,1603,1003,0252,9072,9582,906 Mexico

2,1002,0602,0502,0602,0141,770 Argentina

1,9901,9801,9561,9241,7071,619 Turkey

1,6501,6501,5701,5001,5501,350 Thailand

1,6401,6251,5651,5501,5401,515 Indonesia

15,15615,40816,07715,54914,99214,447 Others

70,97169,97869,25067,51866,66164,465 Total Foreign

18,36517,96617,29916,97616,62116,694 United States

89,33687,94486,54984,49483,28281,159 Total

none


12,98512,88012,83013,17413,54313,016 China

10,37510,1609,9069,4989,1989,010 European Union

9,6049,3449,1378,8299,1399,422 Brazil

4,1933,8923,7163,4453,1562,891 India

3,9223,8533,7383,5823,5683,474 Mexico

3,7353,7753,6763,5203,3563,013 Russia

2,2502,2452,2262,2092,2142,105 Japan

1,8761,8611,7731,7291,7231,556 Argentina

1,6651,6351,5721,5561,5821,503 South Africa

1,6401,6251,5651,5501,5401,515 Indonesia

19,89820,01020,77920,20419,27518,670 Others

72,14371,28070,91869,29668,29466,175 Total Foreign

15,23314,99614,03413,69113,34613,660 United States

87,37686,27684,95282,98781,64079,835 Total

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and

Moldova. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for

that year was released.


Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

none

Total Imports

875900888854877895 Japan

850900775838750745 Saudi Arabia

770760722682616578 Mexico

720710709671727734 European Union

710690722673610598 Iraq

440420369355371326 South Africa

380360299272300410 Hong Kong

260240365321301287 Angola

260250260244254238 China

235210186182196134 Cuba

3,1403,1413,5453,5423,4873,234 Others

8,6408,5818,8408,6348,4898,179 Total Foreign


8,6938,6398,8938,6898,5408,228 Total

none

Total Exports

3,8803,7403,5583,4823,5083,443 Brazil

1,1901,1501,1331,0831,0941,044 European Union

570580546504538467 Thailand

375395430420411422 China

360340379337284206 Turkey

225200278334295224 Argentina

1901801671417542 Ukraine

140130137150141143 Canada

10012011310510574 Belarus

1009587889390 Chile

337311330279244253 Others

7,4677,2417,1586,9236,7886,408 Total Foreign

3,2212,9903,3123,3323,2993,165 United States

10,68810,23110,47010,25510,0879,573 Total

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and

Moldova. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for

that year was released.


Notes to Readers

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of

the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, and broiler meat trade.

Exclusions Beginning in 2015:

Cattle: Colombia and Venezuela.

Beef: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d’Ivoire, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan.

Pork: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, North

Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago.

Broiler Meat: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and Moldova.

Exclusions Beginning in 2016:

Pork: Venezuela

Broiler Meat: Venezuela

Data Modifications Prior to 2014:

Cattle/Beef:

The cattle PSD for the following country are revised for particular years during the 1990-

2013 period on additional official production data available: Belarus

The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 1991-

2013 period on additional/revised official production data available: Algeria, Australia,

Azerbaijan, Belarus, Colombia, Congo (Brazzaville), Cote d’Ivoire, Dominican Republic, El

Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Oman, Peru, Saudi

Arabia, Taiwan, and United States.

The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2001-

2013 period on additional/revised trade data available: Azerbaijan, Dominican Republic,

Ghana, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Vietnam, and United States.

Swine/Pork:

The swine PSD for the following country are revised for particular years during the 1990-

2013 period on additional official production data available: Belarus

The pork PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 1996-

2013 period due to additional/revised official production data: Angola, Belarus, Bosnia and

Herzegovina, Brazil, Cuba, Ecuador, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Macau, New

Zealand, Norway, Serbia, South Africa and the United States.

The pork PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2010-

2013 period due to additional/revised official trade data: Armenia, Bahamas, Ghana,

Jamaica, Serbia.

Broiler Meat:

The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the

1992-2013 period on additional production data available: Belarus, Malaysia, South Africa,

Taiwan, and Vietnam.

The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the

2000-2013 period on additional trade data available: Angola, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait,

Philippines, and the United States.


Assumptions

Diseases: Forecast reflects disease (avian influenza, bovine spongiform encephalopathy,

etc.) policies and restrictions in place as of October 9, 2015 and assumes their continuation.

Conversion Rates Beef &Veal Pork

Conversion Rate 1.40 1.30

HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0201

Frozen: 0202

Processed: 021020 & 160250

Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319

Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329

Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019, 160241, 160242, 160249

Broiler Meat Turkey Meat

Conversion Rate 1 1

HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0207.11, 0207.13

Frozen: 0207.12, 0207.14

Processed: 1602.32

Fresh/Chilled: 0207.24, 0207.26, 0207.32, 0207.34, 0207.35

Frozen: 0207.25, 0207.27, 0207.33, 0207.36

Processed: 1602.31

Note: There are several exceptions by country/product. In general, chicken paws are excluded and carabeef (buffalo meat) is included.

Technical Notes

CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE)

unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal

after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of

the meat product exported.

FAS Reports from Overseas Offices

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submitted

since January 2015 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can

be obtained on FAS Online at: http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx.

PSD Online

The entire USDA PSD database is available online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.

Additional Resources

Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at:

http://www.fas.usda.gov/commodities/livestock-and-meats for additional data and analysis.

Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the

USDA-Economic Research Service at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-

dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/.

Future Releases and Contact Information

Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade to view

archived and future releases. The next release of this circular will be in April 2016.

To receive the circular via email, go to:

https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new.

Questions may be directed to the following staff:

Lindsay Kuberka (202) 644-4650 [email protected] Cattle and Beef

Tyler Cozzens (202) 690-2993 [email protected] Swine and Pork

Joanna Hitchner (202) 720-0746 [email protected] Poultry Meat

Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 [email protected] Cross-Commodity Analyst


http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline

http://www.fas.usda.gov/commodities/livestock-and-meats

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/

http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade

https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new



