prof. david g. vaughan british antarctic survey sea-level rise: another face of climate change
TRANSCRIPT
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Prof. David G. VaughanBritish Antarctic Survey
Sea-level rise: another face of climate change
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Mitigation
Sea-level rise
Adaptation
Response to sea-level rise
> 500 yrs
< 200 yrs
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Photo – flickr / Tc7
Emissions of greenhouse gases
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Sea-level rise by ocean warming
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Sea-level rise by loss of mountain glaciers
W. O. Field, B. F. Molnia
Muir Glacier 1941 - 2004
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Sea-level rise by loss of polar ice sheets
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Recent sea-level rise
0.8 mm/year
2.0 mm/year
3.2 mm/year
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• Models used […] do not include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow, because a basis in published literature is lacking. The projections include a contribution due to increased ice flow from Greenland and Antarctica at the rates observed for 1993-2003, but these flow rates could increase or decrease in the future. For example, if this contribution were to grow linearly with global average temperature change, the upper ranges of sea level rise for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM-3 would increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m. Larger values cannot be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise. {10.6}
IPCC (2007) on sea-level rise
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Ice-sheet thickness change 2002-06
Pritchard et al., Nature, 2009
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Photo – Vaughan, Jan 2009
Ice-shelf retreat around the Antarctic Peninsula
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IPCC 2007 sea-level rise projections
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Possible future sea-level rise
Continuation of a 1% per year increase in rate, until 2100 gives 53 cm
Acceleration to 2.5% per year increase in rate, until 2100 gives 1.4 m cmBut rise in last decade is 3.5 cm per year (10 times current), cf MWP1a
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London- 1.25 million people - £80bn property
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1879 Flood Act
Late C19 updateto Flood Act
1928 Flood + 1930 Flood Act
Interim Defences during Thames Barrier construction
Flood defences in London
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Thames Barrier
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Flood return at Thames Barrier
Source: Dawson et al. (2005), Jones (2001), Environment Agency (2003a)
1 10 100 10001 10 100 1000
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Elevation (m)
0 20 40 60 80 100
300200100
Popu
lati
on
(Mill
ions)
Coastal populations
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Developing countries
Photo – Flickr / Dan..
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Developed countries
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The 100th Thames Barrier Closure Science and prediction
Photo – flickr / jkpaul
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Cascade of uncertainty in sea-level rise projection
Com
pounding of error
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A role for science in 2010?
• Improved quantification of risk• Improved basis for sea-defence planning• Support for coastal adaptation and management• (Avoidance of unwarranted expenditure)• Fuller evaluation of long-term impact of climate
change
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Coordinator: David G. VaughanInformation: www.ice2sea.euCoordinator: David G. VaughanInformation: www.ice2sea.eu