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Water Challenge for 21 st Century: at a Crossroads ?? Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat [email protected] Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria Professor of Earth System Science Wageningen University, the Netherlands

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Page 1: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Water Challenge for 21st Century: at a Crossroads ??

Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat [email protected]

Director General and Chief Executive Officer

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Austria

Professor of Earth System Science

Wageningen University, the Netherlands

Page 2: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

One Blue Planet…..

glaciers, snow & permafrost 1.72%

ground water 0.75%

lakes, swamps & rivers 0.1%

Oceans 97.5%

In 21stC:

• Is past guide to future – ‘Stationarity’?

• Can water information remain ‘Secret’?

• Is fresh water ‘Sovereign’?

• Is water fixed asset, or ‘flux’?

USG

S

Page 3: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Most Important Focus of World Leaders

Page 4: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Water Crisis…?

…there is some urgency to deal with the

problems However not all noses are in the same direction

yet…

And perceptions of risks and urgency may differ

Page 5: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Wat

er U

se in

km

^3 p

er y

ear

AgricultureIndustryHouseholdsReservoiresTotal

Worldwide Water Use by Sector

Page 6: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Worldwide Water Use by Region

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

EuropeNorth AmericaAfricaAsiaSouth AmericaAustralia& Pacific

Page 7: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

The current situation

1 billion people without access to safe drinking water

1.4 billion people in watersheds with < 1000m3/capita/year

2.4 billion people with poor sanitation

Page 8: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

• Population still growing, adding 2 billion more by 2050

• Food production requirements potentially 70% greater by 2050

• 20% of the world’s population has no access to electricity

– Industrial and energy water uses exceed agriculture in high-income

countries.

• Ecosystems?

Water: Global Challenges Increasing and Competing Demands

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1900 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2010 2025

Reservoirs

Municipal Use

Industrial Use

Agricultural Use

Page 9: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Water Security: local risks…..

Destructive • Flood

• India/Bangladesh: 2007 monsoon 75m

• Pakistan: 2010 20m; 2011/12

• Brisbane/Australia, Thailand: 2011

• Drought • Horn of Africa 2010-11

• Syria 2006-11

• Russia 2010 Abstract: ‘…investigate ….irrigating crops in arid

environments with CO2 rather than water…’

Productive

• WSS: 800m without improved

water, 2.6bn without

sanitation; future cities?

• Food: 1bn malnutrition 30m

child deaths/yr • Power: renewable HEP unexploited

Page 10: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Water Security: ‘international’ waters risks…..

• growing pressures – China: 17 neighbours,

110 rivers & lakes – Africa 2050: 2.5bn people,

60 international basins, increasing ‘complexity’

• limited knowledge, capacity, uncertainty misperception, tension, fear – Eg GBM, Mekong, Nile,

Euphrates

• ‘Northern’ science adequacy? – GCMs – economic models

塔里木

印度

河 珠

绥芬河 鸭

绿江

图们江

黑龙江

雅怒藏布江-

布拉马普特拉河

在全球个大洲中,亚洲国际河流分布最为集中,其国际河流面积占了亚洲陆地面积的65%

Page 11: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Bangladesh

© Google Earth

Page 12: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Ganges

Brahmaputra

Meghna

GBM BASINS The GBM Basins drain 1.72 Mi

km2 area

93% of the area outside

Bangladesh

75-80% of flow in 5 months of

monsoon

Page 13: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

0 SLR

32 cm SLR

88 cm SLR

Impact of SLR on Salinity Intrusion

Hiron Point

9 km

90 km

Mongla

Khulna

Movement of 5 ppt Salinity line

Source: IWM

Page 14: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Water Security: global spillover risks

• Local water shocks global risks to business & economies – eg Thai floods: $45bn

• Local water shocks global

political risks – eg Syria drought, Russia

drought, Pakistan flood

• Transboundary waters international political risks – South Asia rivers, SARCC trade – Mekong, China – Tigris-Euphrates

Page 15: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Water security in changing ‘climates’..

• but crisis now for 3 billion people… adaptation now is key to future

• mitigation mostly about energy; adaptation mostly about water

Page 16: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

3. Water Security: big policy

questions & science challenges

• Closing divided world gap? leapfrogs, game-changers

• Chasing water security in changing ‘climates’? Innovation 3 ‘INs’: • Information (GPG)

• Institutions

• Infrastructure

• Resolving 21stC $trillion challenges? • ensuring water services, food & energy for 9-11bn (7-8bn in cities)

• managing (increasing) water-related shocks & spillovers

• Sustaining our one Blue Planet? • Conserving <1% liquid & fresh (0.1% surface, liquid, fresh)

• Understanding/managing risks of 4o future on water flux??

Page 17: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Over-reliance on groundwater:

Total groundwater withdrawal (all sectors)

in % of total (surface and ground) water withdrawals

Global total groundwater withdrawal: 1522 km3/yr from total 4331 km3/yr

fg_tot = 35%

Page 18: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Is the hydrological cycle

changing…?

Page 19: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

What should be changing ?

• Precipitation?

• Evaporation?

• Runoff?

• Storage?

Page 20: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Smoothed annual anomalies for precipitation (%) over land from 1900 to 2005; other regions are dominated by variability.

Land precipitation is changing significantly over broad areas

Increases

Decreases

Page 21: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

What should be changing ?

• Precipitation?

• Evaporation?

• Runoff?

• Storage?

Page 22: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

1950

Analysis by

Munich Re

Data:

U.N.

Population

Division

World Cities exceeding 5 million residents

Page 23: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

2015

Analysis by Munich

Re

Data:

U.N. Population

Division

World Cities exceeding 5 million residents

Page 24: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Runoff

Discharge Precipitation

urbanized area

rural area

Time

Page 25: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Vulnerability projections

Page 26: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

What should be changing ?

• Precipitation?

• Evaporation?

• Runoff?

• Storage?

Page 27: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Global Reservoir Database Location (lat./lon.), Storage capacity, Area of water surface,

Purpose of dam, Year of construction, …

13,382dams,

Visual courtesy of Kuni Takeuchi

Page 28: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

How to make a real progress in

addressing water –as one of the

most pressing issues of our

sustainable future ?

Page 29: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Trans-sectoral and multi-

disciplinary systems thinking

in water…..

“nexus approach”

“systems approach”

Page 30: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

IPCC 4AR WG II

ALL WATER RELATED

(WATER DEPENDENT)

SECTORS

Page 31: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Water - Energy – Environment – Health

Nexus

In the U.S. and Europe, 91% and 78% electricity is

currently produced by thermoelectric (nuclear and

fossil fueled) power plants, which require water

resources for cooling.

We found a summer average decrease in capacity of

power plants with 6.3-19% in Europe and 4.4-16% in

the Southeastern U.S. depending on cooling system

type and climate scenario for 2031-2060.

V.d. Vliet, Kabat et al, 2012, Nature Climate Change

Page 32: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Projected future changes in river

discharge Future period 2071-2100 relative to control period 1971-2000

Introduction – Modeling approach – Results – Conclusions

Page 33: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Future changes in discharge and water temperatures

Columbia (Anatone) Rhine (Koblenz) Mekong (Chiang Saen)

Wat

er t

emper

ature

(°C

) 25°C – WHO and water quality standard

21°C - salmon

tolerance

temperature 23°C – cooling

water limit

Introduction – Modeling approach – Results – Conclusions

Page 34: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Water – Climate – Poverty – Equity

Nexus

Kenya: extreme rainfall variability around mean

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Page 35: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

Years

Real

GD

P g

ro

wth

(%

)

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Varia

bil

ity i

n R

ain

fall

(M

ete

r)

Real GDP grow th (%)

Variability in Rainfall (Meter)

Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

rainfall affects growth….

the case of Zimbabwe

Page 36: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

43 746

1,287 1,406

2,486 3,255

4,729

6,150

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Eth

iop

ia

So

uth

Afr

ica

Th

aila

nd

La

os

Ch

ina

Bra

zil

Au

str

alia

No

rth

Am

erica

Water storage per person (m3)

Water – Climate - Poverty – Equity - Nexus

Infrastructure gap in water storage

Page 37: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Country Additional

Storage needed

per person

(m3)

Storage

investments

required per

person

(US$)

Storage

Investments

Required

(US$ Billion)

Period needed at 5%

current GDP

investment per year

(no pop. inc.)

(Years)

Lesotho 751 939 1.7 44

Namibia 542 678 1.3 8

Nigeria 402 503 67.3 32

Ethiopia 555 694 46.2 144

Kenya 307 384 12.1 24

Tanzania 610 763 27.4 60

Uganda 511 639 17.9 58

Burkina Faso 152 190 2.5 22

Senegal 683 854 9.9 40

Algeria 239 299 9.8 4

Morocco 128 160 5.1 4

The cost of water security

Page 38: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Water: Management Challenges • Water management must intensify.

• Managing the water sector alone is no longer enough

– Water integrates across scales and sectors, which all use and

influence increasingly scarce water resources.

• Water management is risk based, but how does risk change?

– Large uncertainties

• Data

• Scenarios

• Models

– No stationarity

• More robust,

flexible solutions

required

Page 39: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Page 40: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Adaptation (autonomous)

Adaptation (with

investments)

x1

Climate parameter (e.g. rainfall)

Fre

qu

ency

Extremen Extremen

Drought risk

Flood risk

“Acceptable risk”

“Acceptable risk”

Page 41: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Adaptation (autonomous)

Adapation (with investments)

x1

Climate parameter (e.g.rainfall)

Fre

qu

ency

P1 P2

x2

Climate Change

“Acceptable

risk”

Page 42: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Water Futures & Solutions WFaS Supporting Innovative Solutions through

Integrative Water Futures Analysis

• 2013 start-up with IIASA venture capital

• 1st phase: existing tools & datasets fast-track results

Page 43: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

4. WFaS Research Question

What water-related policies & practices can be

implemented now that will be robust at

improving human well-being through water

security across a wide range of possible

futures & associated uncertainties?

Page 44: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

WFaS Coalition Building

Governing Board

WaterFutures4

the World

Sector Actors

Group

Project Team

Secretariat

Pro

ject Directo

r

External experts

Scenario Focus

Group

Science

Coalition Stakeholder

Coalition

Sponsor

Coalition

Three major coalitions Organized into the following groups

Initiative includes a major stakeholder consultation component, to inform and guide the science but also to test and refine policy and business outcomes;

Page 45: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

WFaS Coalition Building

Science

Coalition Stakeholder

Coalition

Sponsor

Coalition

Three major coalitions

Sample of Institutions Involved Institute Country

CEH UK

CESR/Kassel Germany

CUNY USA

CSIRO Australia

IFPRI USA

JRC Italy

MIT USA

NIES Japan

NIH/IRMA/CWRDM India

NVE Norway

Oxford UK

PBL Netherlands

PIK Germany

Utrecht Univ. Netherlands

Wageningen Netherlands

WRC South Africa

Page 46: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

WFaS Coalition Building

ensuring consistency & usefulness of outputs

Three major coalitions

Sample of SFG member institutions Institute Country

Bibliotheca Alexandrina Egypt

Climate Grp Greater

China

China

Conagua Mexico

CSIRO Australia

Federal Secretary Pakistan

Gen. Council of Ag. Dev. Morocco

ICID China

Irrigation Dept. Sri Lanka

IUCN Pakistan

IWA

LIGHT Brazil

Nat’l Planning Comm. South Africa

OSTP USA

Planning Commission India

UNESCO

WWFJ Bangladesh

Science

Coalition Stakeholder

Coalition

Sponsor

Coalition

Page 47: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

VISION…..

If one does not know

to which port one is

sailing, no wind is

favorable

Seneca (c. 4 BC-AD 65)

Photo: David McGrath

Page 48: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Water challenge: not a threat but opportunities….

(innovation, business, economy, social innovations)

Page 49: Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat - IIASA · Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Thank you and welcome soon at

IIASA...! www.iiasa.ac.at