prof jim hall university of oxfordisngi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/jim-hall.pdf · delivering...
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Delivering the ‘modelled world’ of infrastructure
Prof Jim HallUniversity of Oxford
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1. A shared set of spatial scenarios
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ITRC Scenarios
Population
Economy
Climate
Implications for infrastructure
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1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system
models
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NISMOD-LPSystem-of-systems model for long term planning
Flood risk management
Metrics of infrastructure performance
Service quality e.g. reliability and security
AffordabilityExternalities e.g.
environmental impact
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NISMOD-RVPinpointing vulnerability and quantifying risk
Customers
Assets
Sub-systems
Systems
System-of-systems
Gas
ICT
Water
Electricity
Transportation
Waste
• Systems model• High resolution• Multi-scale• Interdependencies
Multi-Scale Structure
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1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system
models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent
failures
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NISMOD-RV: National model of infrastructure riskand vulnerability
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Flooding in the Thames Valley in 2014
SAGEScientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
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Transport systems vulnerability
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1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system
models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent
failures4. Extending to regional and macro-economic
impacts
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Extending to regional and macro-economic impacts
Employment disruption during infrastructure failure
UK-wide economic impact
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1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system
models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent
failures4. Extending to regional and macro-economic
impacts5. Decision making under-uncertainty: exploring
the scenario space
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Scenarios for water scarcity
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1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system
models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent
failures4. Extending the envelope to regional and macro-
economic impacts5. Decision making under-uncertainty: exploring
the scenario space6. Exploring trade-offs and impacts
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Cost of plan
PV(Capex+Opex)
Ris
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ate
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[(exp
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ire
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iction)]
Low risk, low
cost plans
Tolerable risk threshold
Exploring trade-offs
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1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system
models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent
failures4. Extending the envelope to regional and macro-
economic impacts5. Decision making under-uncertainty: exploring
the scenario space6. Exploring trade-offs and impacts7. Analysing decision pathways
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Analysing decision pathways
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National water infrastructure pathways
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1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system
models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent
failures4. Extending the envelope to regional and macro-
economic impacts5. Decision making under-uncertainty: exploring
the scenario space6. Exploring trade-offs and impacts7. Analysing decision pathways8. Exploring the roles of multiple actors
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Multiple actors and governance arrangements
Where will digital connectivity be provided in a competitive market?
How will the housing market adjust to new infrastructure
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1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system
models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent failures4. Extending the envelope to regional and macro-
economic impacts5. Decision making under-uncertainty: exploring the
scenario space6. Exploring trade-offs and impacts7. Analysing decision pathways8. Exploring the roles of multiple actors9. Full recoverability of results and data provenance
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NISMOD-DB
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1. A shared set of spatial scenarios 2. Coupled interdependent infrastructure system
models3. Exploring cascading and interdependent failures4. Extending the envelope to regional and macro-
economic impacts5. Decision making under-uncertainty: exploring the
scenario space6. Exploring trade-offs and impacts7. Analysing decision pathways8. Exploring the roles of multiple actors9. Full recoverability of results and data provenance
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MISTRALMulti-scale Infrastructure Systems Analytics
The aim of the MISTRAL programme is to develop and demonstrate a highly integrated analytics capability to inform strategic infrastructure decision making across scales, from local to global.
MISTRAL will thereby radically extend the ITRC’s pioneering infrastructure systems analysis capability:
• Downscale: from ITRC’s pioneering representation of national networks to the UK’s 25.7 million households and 5.2 million businesses, representing the infrastructure services they demand and the multi-scale networks through which these services are delivered.
• Upscale: from the national perspective to incorporate global interconnections via telecommunications, transport and energy networks.
• Across-scale: to other national settings outside the UK, where infrastructure needs are greatest and where systems analysis represents a business opportunity for UK engineering firms.
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Challenge 1: The local complexity of national infrastructure
• Household scale demographic simulation
• Building characterisation
• Street-scale network representation
• Distributed renewables and storage
• Heat and hydrogen networks
• Explicit representation of the transport network
• Local flood and drainage simulation
• Solid waste transport and processing
• Mapping of digital services and needs
• Spatial allocation of infrastructure
High resolution at a national scale
Informing local innovation and devolved governance of infrastructure
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Challenge 2: National infrastructure in an inter-connected world
Global interconnection of UK infrastructure:
• Energy
• Transport
• Digital communications
• Solid waste
Global network analysis
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Analysis of infrastructure risks globally
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NISMOD-Int: A transferrable platform for infrastructure assessment
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DAFNI: the Data and Analytics Facility for National Infrastructure
DAFNI is an £8million new national research facility for infrastructure systems analysis, modelling, simulation, visualisation and decision support
DAFNI will be comprised of:
1. The national infrastructure database
2. National infrastructure modelling, simulation and visualisation facilities
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DAFNI will be delivered by STFC and hosted at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Harwell
Additional investment in computer hardware (including visualisation facilities) within UKCRIC partner universities will help to optimise the use of DAFNI
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The National Infrastructure DatabaseDAFNI will provide • a secure facility for assembling, hosting and
creating datasets on infrastructure assets and networks and the human and natural environments in which they are located.
• management of licence arrangements, and a commitment to Open Data, as far as possible
• tiered security arrangements• metadata listing
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The National infrastructure modelling, simulation and visualisation facilitiesThe DAFNI modelling and simulation platform will provide an e-science environment that will:
• interface with the National Infrastructure Database
• provide many-task computing facilities
• facilitate coupling of simulation modules to enable system-of-systems simulation
• link with visualisation facilities to enablescrutiny and communication of complexand high dimensional simulation results.
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DAFNI Delivery and operation plan• Consultation on requirements during Year 1
• Initial hardware investment
• Pilot projects, starting with the migration of NISMODv1 to DAFNI
• ‘Crowding in’ of models and datasets
• A growing number of users in industry and government
• A sustainable long term business model will be put in place for operation, maintenance and upgrade of DAFNI from 2021
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Delivering the ‘modelled world’ of infrastructure
Prof Jim HallUniversity of Oxford