1 DKH©1998

Professor Derek K Hitchins

2 DKH©1998

Who cares?!

  In a democracy, military action is under political control—“by the will of the People”

 As social orders change, so do military tasks   e.g. from MAD, SDI, cold war confrontation, to…   Soviet Union domino collapse, NATO expansion,

to…   Social fragmentation throughout western world,

to…  Local, tactical wars with potential for global

conflagration, to…   Peace-making/enforcing, -keeping, -building Vital for future senior officers to understand

social dynamics, their implications w.r.t. C2

—of what, by whom and how!

3 DKH©1998

Underlying Control Paradigm!

Control Omnipotence Tyranny

Anarchy Freedom

Perceived organizational

focus +

Controller self- satisfaction

Innovation, creativity,

variety

Societal Swings

Taylorism Social

engineering

4 DKH©1998

Following Sequence from International C2 Conferences “Societal Archetypes & Low Intensity Conflict”!

Concepts of democracy

Ideas of Freedom

Visions of Independence

Challengeto authorities

Authoritarianculture

Political "Joinings"—Free trade areas—EU—GATT…

!!!!Politcal Fragmentation—Fr Canada—N.Ireland—Basques—Scotland—Burundi…

Reversion to traditionalfault-lines

"bigger is better"

"True"democracy

Parliamentrydemocracies

US-ledInternational

democratization

"local is better"

"govern, not serve"

Capitalism

"rich isright"

"don't askthe peopletoo often"

“…contains the seeds

of its own destruction…”!

 Represents macro-view of today’s world…but…

 What is driving all this beneath the surface…?

 How will it all end?

  (Wring hands… exit stage Left)

Western Culture—on a Knife Edge!

Social factions, fractions & sub-cultures

• media•!fashion•!socio-"economic "targetting

Cult of theIndividual

Competition

Commercialpressure

Individuation Pressure to Individuate

Essentialduality

Politicalopposites

Ideology

Options adoptedby other Cultures

Social cohesion

Establishment

InstitutionalizedPower Groups

Socializing Ethics, Beliefs

Education & Infrastructure

Autonomous"dynasties"

" •!organized crime•!international """big business"

Inter-necineconflict

Economic Wealth

SocialEvolution

IntellectualInheritance

Collectiveunconscious/ experience

Time Neededto mature

intellectually

Police & Army

++

+

—

+

OppositeSame

Western Culture—Simulation!

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Social Cohesion vs. Wealth + Shared Belief

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Social Factions and degrading Economy,

(low shared belief)

Poor Economy —runaway

Moderate Economy

Robust Economy

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1–3 Economic Improvement alone 1A–3A Economic Improvement with Widely Shared Belief

Social Cohesion

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688.951-6: Internecine Conflict

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Internecine Conflict 1

2

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1–3 Economic Improvement alone 1A–3A Economic Improvement with Widely Shared Belief

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Deduction From Analysis of Western Culture!

  Factions generate spontaneously, esp. in weaker economies   economic pressure for competition   individuation  degraded infrastructure

  Small changes in shared belief cause big changes in social behaviour, esp. with weak economy

  Stronger economies may still generate internecine strife, but need not lose social cohesion

 Robust Economy not enough—some common, shared belief/ethic/behaviour pattern needed too

…reinforces…

…opposes…

SocialTurbulence

Social Engineering

Control byRigid

Bureaucracy

Bureaucracyand Breakup

Control Vs. Variety

GovernmentalControldemandsUnderdogs

Media FeedingFrenzies

Societieson the edgeof Chaos

Variety forStability

+ ++

—

Variety

Two Interlocking Themes!

  1. Red—Government Controls create turbulence by suppressing variety

  2. Blue—Societies exist “on the Edge of Chaos”. Avoiding catastrophic decay demands variety—but 1…?

Socialturbulence

Socialengineering

Cult of theindividual

Cult of competition

Stumbling Economy

Unemployment

Increased Pace of Life

Social misfits,fallouts

FamilyBreakups

Privatisation

Social Engineering—Prime Driver of Social Turbulence!

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“Scares”—Society on the Edge of Chaos!

  BSE-into CJD, baby-milk, eggs (Lysteria Hysteria), the Pill, BSE-into-mutton-into CJD…  scare, after scare, after scare

  Societal state:—  self-organized criticality—dynamically-stable

(?), turbulent condition  build-up of societal tension—scare—societal

catharsis(?)—build-up of societal tension…   fractal, not periodic—like crime, war, stock

market, earthquakes…   But, is this state really stable?

…moo—ME?

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Successive “Scares” Leading to Catastrophe!

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Non-linear, stable, on the edge of chaos Impulse

!

Impulse Impulse Impulse

Each impulse increments prior turbulence, until final impulse cause total instability

Chaotic decay

Chaotic decay

System A

System B

System C

A to B

B to C

C to A

Coupling

Ramper

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 Current governing/ business paradigms  demand ever more information   to exercise ever more Control

  Inevitably control suppresses variety…  … requiring conformity, uniformity  Leading to…  Moribund Decay, Breakdown,

Chaos…

Paradox!

Could this apply to C2/CIS too?

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Current Technological Trends—Following Sequence examines Radical shift in C2 Technology,

Operation & Support!

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Commercial Dominance!

 Defence priorities no longer dominant w.r.t. C2/C3/C4i technologies  C4i/CIS uses same IT as commercial IS  MODs no longer major buyers

 Commercial market shifting:—  From mainframe through super mini to networked PCs  Microsoft, Intel, IBM, AT&T   sub-micron processor chips, PentiumPro ≥ 400M  RISC chips, PowerPC≥ 500M, copper substrates…  ≥ 900MHz working in development   from remote dumb terminals to triple layer client-server   explosive growth in networking and ownership  pages to relational to object databases   from Internet to Intranet   from UNIX to Windows NT to L****

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Commercial Off-the-Shelf (COTS) Hardware!

 Growing use of COTS :—   specialist military hardware expensive, soon outdated  COTS available, tangible, inexpensive

 COTS presents new problems:—  performance, reliability in military environment?   long-term availability?  military security?  high performance integrated systems without modifying

discrete COTS products  Complete new way of thinking for military/defence

customer

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Implications of COTS and COE on continuing Performance, Availability, Maintenance!

  Supplier will maintain neither ageing COTS nor outdated COEs/Applications

  “Going commercial” means:—  “guessing”which way the market is going  buying for a short life—2 - 4 years   continual upgrading to surf the crest of developing

technologies, software versions, operating systems   continual review to anticipate problems ahead

  Provided it works, C4i/CIS continually improves throughout extended life   cf. current approach where bespoke customer owns

outdating, obsolescent equipment for 10 - 20 years

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Value for Money

Fit for Purpose

Conforms to Strategies

AffordableTimely

Supports Fast and Slow

One Look and Feel

Open Access

Loosely Coupled

Conforms to Standards

Maintainable

Resilient

Single Key-in

Fast

Ease of Use

Integrity

Supports Officer Safety

Adds Military Value

Minimal Training

Ease of Implementation

Supportable

Availability

Flexible &Adaptable

User Objectives

Management &Support Objectives

Typical IS Contribution Tree!

Gives goals for IS policy and strategy

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System Vs. Service Provisions!  System provision—conventional procurement,

operation and support by customers/users   customer staff become surrogate technicians   customer establishes full operations, support, etc   independence, capital cost

  Service provision (Facilities Management)—contractor purchases, integrates, owns, installs, supports, upgrades, etc.   customer defines the need   customer uses facilities, dependence, low outlay

  Service provision more attractive to customer in dynamic technological and business environments  but, can hollow-out customer—loses technology expertise

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Intranet!

  Internet within an organization. Works across existing networks, ties legacy systems into new systems, speeds up communication, reduces paper, etc.

 Browsers, TCP/IP & HTML key features  Can establish "Private Virtual Network" encompassing

local and geographically dispersed groups.  Firewall and/or encryption

 Change to work practices:—  Every group sees what others are doing. Co-operation/

competition potentially enhanced.  Energy, money spent on internal paper communication, current

delays in that process, dwindle almost to nothing.   Information presented/published by owners, improving accuracy

and timeliness - hierarchy can see it, do not introduce delay.

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Some Psychological

Thoughts!New Technology enabling much greater

inter-connectivity between increasingly fragmented societal groups

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  Some view humans as too complex, variable to be predictable—"soft" viewpoint

 Others view the human as an adjunct to the system   learn to respond to, and interact with, technology,

situation and environment—"hard" viewpoint.  Neither viewpoint fits observed facts   Social Psychology and Social Anthropology study

behaviour of individuals in society—   fruitful avenues of research into the behaviour of humans

in social groups, e.g. teams, regiments, etc  Mutual distrust between engineers and social “anythings”

Human Predictability!

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Some Human Social Characteristics!

 Motivation - inclinations to conform to social norms (Achievement Motivation and Compliance Motivation)

 Dominance / Submission - tendency to lead or be led  Territorial Imperative -strong sense of territory ownership  Territorial Marking - visible signs / symbols of ownership  Personal Space - egocentred space, physical and emotional  Family Loyalties - Unquestioning adherence to relationship  Tribal Loyalties - Unquestioning adherence to relationship  Dyadic Reciprocity - Interactions between communicants  Natural Pre-disposition - Inherited tendency to respond  Cultural Pre-disposition - Learned tendency to respond  Group Polarisation - Tendency for group discussions /

decisions to move to the extremes—"Risky Shift"

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Psychology of Operations Rooms Layouts!"It's all there on Startrek"

Captain Swivel Chair

Science & Comms

—Reactive —Outward

Looking

External Sensors, Comms

Consoles Large-Screen Display —Outward-Looking Swivel

Chairs

Operators —Controlled —Outward-Looking •Weapons •Navigation •Attitude & Speed

Height Differential

Engineering —Sidelined

Bridge

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Startrek—the Next Generation—a new Psychology?!

Helm Science Officer

Ship’s Counsellor Captain

First Officer

Tactical Officer

Bridge Engineering Position

Captain’s Ready Room

Large Screen Display

Security, communications, defence and weapons

Sensor management and interpretation Internal controls

Personnel management, captain’s conscience, negotiating aide

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Real-Time Air Traffic Control!

Operators "plugged-in" to Systems with Supervisors

operating "over the shoulder", figuratively or in reality

Operators intercommunicate

via screens and intercoms

Operators fulfilling role of intelligent machine?

Control Consoles

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Strategic C2!

Chairs face inwards— any Technology is either:

• let into table or • behind chairs

Face-to-face interaction

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Warrior/police-centred Concepts!

  Information to and from the immediate/front-line user   individual in contact with enemy/civilian   implies user as information node

 vehicle/personal location systems  personal video cameras, concealed microphones, auto

alarms  personal displays of image, fax, video  individual load limits, power-supply limits

  compatible with contemporary auftragstaktik  Are our traditional ideas about control tenable in

this new C2 environment?  Akin to the present rôle of the Police?

29 DKH©1998

The $64M Questions!

  Social change is moving the C2 task away from automated, prescriptive rote activities   automated C2 best suited to static defences

against fast but predictable enemy  C2 in short-to-medium term more human

centred?   to accommodate patchwork battlefield,

peacekeeping, warrior-centred force structures  Do we understand C2 psychology

sufficiently to:—  design-prescribe systems and facilities

for unknown situations?  or, develop context-free support

facilities for universal soldiers?