Profitability Analysis-II

Chapter 8 & 9 in T&SCH EN 5253Terry A. Ring

Measures of Profitability• Return on Investment (ROI)

– ROI=annual earnings/capital investment – ROI > cost of capital (commercial interest rate, i)

• Payback period (PBP)• Annualized Cost (CA)• Venture profit (VP)• Investor’s Rate of Return (IRR)• Discounted Cash Flow Rate of Return (DCFR)

• Hard work to get this all together

Same

Definitions of Profitability Measures

How to determine ROI

• Sales revenue minus Costs– Cost of feedstocks– Cost of Utilities– Cost of Labor and Maintenance– Cost of Overhead– Cost of Taxes and Insurance– Cost of Depreciation– Cost of sales force, R&D, Admin.,

Management Incentives

Utilities• Steam• Electricity• Cooling Water• Process Water

– Boiler Water– Feed Stock water/Steam

• Refrigeration• Fuels

– Natural Gas– Fuel Oil– Coal

• Waste Treatment– Stack Gas Cleanup– Waste Water Treatment

• Land fill cost for solid waste

Costs

Depreciation• Straight-line Depreciation

– Equipment Lifetime – Plant = 12 yr– Constant % each year so that plant is totally

written off at end of life time• 8% of Total Depreciable Capital, CTDC

– What would be the depreciation % for 20 yr lifetime?

• Other types of depreciation– Accelerated Cost Recovery System (ARCS)– Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MARCS) for Taxes – Declining-Balance Method (DB)– Double Declining-Balance Method (DDB)– Others

More On Depreciation• Declining Balance Method (no salvage value)

– d= range from 1/n to 2/n, typically use 1.5/n• Double Declining Balance Method (no salvage

value)– d=2/n

• Depreciation amount for year t, Dt=B*d*(1-d)t-1

• Book Value after year t, BVt-1 =B(1-d)t-1

– B=basis = CTDC

– n= service life– t=year

More On Depreciation

• ACRS – Federal Tax Law 1982 – 1986• MACRS - Federal Tax Law in 1987

Accelerated Cost Recovery System

More on Depletion (of natural resource)

• Cost Depletion = Units recovered this year*Unit value– Unit Value = Cost to acquire

resource/estimate of recoverable units

• Percentage Depletion

Taxes

• Property Taxes– Based upon the value of the property

• Used in Cost of Manufacturing• Severance Tax = 12.5% of extracted mineral’s

net value• State Taxes

– Very between states, UT = 6.2%• Federal Income Tax for Business

– Typically taken to be 34% of gross earnings

Total Production Cost, C

• Cost of Manufacturing minus general expenses

• C=COM-General Expenses

• General Expenses (see slide 6)– Selling expenses, R&D, Admin. (top

management), Management Incentive Package

Cost of Manufacturing (COM)

• Direct manufacturing costs– Feedstocks, Utilities, labor related to

operations, maintenance• Operating overhead

• Fixed costs– Property Tax, Insurance, Depreciation

Pre-tax (Gross) Earnings• Gross Earnings = Sales (S) – Total Production Cost (C)

• Net Earnings(Profit) = (1-t) Gross Earnings– Tax (t) = State (UT=6.2%) + Federal taxes (34%)

Working Capital, CWC

Typically 15 % CTCI

More Accurate Working Capital CalculationCWC=Cash Reserves+Inventory+accounts receivable-

accounts payable

• Cash reserves - 30 days of raw materials, utilities, operations, Maintenance, operating overhead, property taxes, insurance and depreciation 8.33% of COM

• Inventories = 7 days of products at sales prices• Accounts receivable - 30 days at sales price 8.33% of

annual sales• Accounts payable – 30 days of feedstocks at purchase

price, 8.33% of annual feed stock costs

Table 23.1 Components of Total Capital Investment, CTCI. Modified from Sieder, et. al., 2004. Category Symbol and Definition Total Bare-module Cost for Fabricated

Equipment CFE= sum of costs for all fabricated equipment

Total Bare-module Cost for Process Machinery

CPM= sum of costs for all process machinery

Total Bare-module Cost for Spares Cspares= sum of costs for all spares Total Bare-module Cost for Storage and

Surge Tanks Cstorage= sum of costs for all tanks

Total Cost for Initial Catalyst Charges Ccatalyst= sum of costs for all catalysts Total Bare Module Investment (TBM) CTBM= CFE+ CPM + Cspares + Cstorage+ Ccatalyst Cost of Site Preparation Csite= 10-20% of CTBM

Cost of Service Facilities Cserv=20% of CTBM

Allocated Costs for Utility Plants and Related Facilities

Calloc= sum of costs listed below Capital Cost Steam $50/(lb/hr) Electricity $203/kW Cooling Water $58/gpm Process Water $347/gpm Refrigeration $1,330/ton Liquid Waste Disposal $3/1,000 gpy gpy=gallons/yr

Total Direct Permanent Investment (DPI) CDPI=CTBM+Csite+Cserv+Calloc

Cost for Contingencies and Contractor Fees

Ccont=18% of CTDC

Total Depreciable Capital (TDC) CTDC=CDPI+Ccont

Cost of Land Cland=2% of CTDC Cost of Royalties for Intellectual

Property Croyal=1-5% of Sales (S) or 2% of CTDC+3% of Sales (S)

Cost of Plant Startup Cstartup=2-10% of CTDC

Total Permanent Investment (TPI) CTPI= FISF(CTDC+Cland+Croyal+Cstartup) Working Capital CWC=0.0833*COM+0.0192*S

+0.0833*S+0.0833*Cfeedstocks

or 0.15*CTCI Total Capital Investment (TCI) CTCI = CTPI+CWC Notes: FISF is Investment Site Factor , a factor of 1.15 was used for Utah and 1.25 used for Alaska

Definitions of Profitability Measures

Cost AnalysisEmissionEquipment

Venture Profit Comparison VP=(1-t)*(S-C)*i*C_TCITaxes, t 0.4interest, i 0.05

Old Emissions Equipment

Assume 1 calibration failure per day

Extra Work for

Operator

Time (hr)/failureHours/year

Salary ($/hr) Cost OH Total Cost

0.25 82.5 35 $ 2,887.50 2.5 $ 7,218.75

Instrument Technician

Time (hr)/failureHours/year

Salary ($/hr) Cost OH Total Cost

1 330 32.5 $ 10,725.00 2.5 $ 26,812.50

Environmental Engineer

Time (hr)/failureHours/year

Salary ($/hr) Cost OH Total Cost

1 330 42.5 $ 14,025.00 2.5 $ 35,062.50 Purchase Spare Parts $ 10,000.00 $/yr

DAQ Fines ????

Total C $ 79,093.75 $/yr

Impact on VP $ 47,456.25 $/yrNew Emssion EquipmentIncrease in C_TCI

C_TCI $ 1,000,000.00 Impact on VP $ 50,000.00 $/yr

Selling Price for Given ROI• For a new product without an established market• Sale price may very

– High Sales price• Assume ROI say 40% (This is a home run!!)• Back calculate the sales price.

– Low Sales price• Set VP to Zero• Back calculate the sales price • (this is the same as ROI calc above when or imin is

20%)

ROI is not good enough for cash poor companies

• They use annual Cash Flow for decisions• Years of Plant construction

CF = -fCTDC-CWC-Cland

• Years of Plant OperationCF = (1-t)(S-C)+D

• Depreciation D=fCTDC

• f= fraction of TDC which is depreciated that year

Using Excel for Profitability Analysis

• User name “student”• Password “engineer”

• Steps to get ready• Get Chemical Prices• Get Cost of Utilities• Run Aspen/ProMax

– Production Rates (kg/y)– Utilities used (kg/y)

• Determine installed cost of equipment• Only then are you ready to use this spread sheet