PROGRAM THEORYWhat is it?

Why is it important?

Most familiar form –

Logic Model

Where are you going?

How will you get there?

What will tell you that you’ve arrived?

Three parts of Logic Model

Inputs Outputs Outcomes

Family Members

Budget

Car

Camping Equipment

Drive to state park

Set up camp

Cook, play, talk, laugh, hike

Family members learn about each

other; family bonds; family has

a good time

Logic Model Example: Family Vacation

Contents depend on perspective

Program Theory

• Takes multiple perspectives into account• Can be used to address complex problems• Support complex solutions

Definition•Planning framework

• Emphasizes• Analysis• Conceptualization• Evaluation

•Two interactive parts• Theory of change• Theory of action

Starting Point – Assess Your Circumstances

•What is the problem (preliminary)?•Who does the problem affect?

• What are their needs?

•Who will the program serve?•Who should be involved in program theory development?

Conduct a Situation Analysis•Names and frames problem•Potential approaches (any order; any mix)•Mental modeling• Inductive reasoning•Deductive reasoning

Guiding Questions for Situation Analysis

• Revisit (and revise) problem statement• Who?• History? Future projections?• Causes?• Past solutions? Effects? Theories?• Direct and indirect consequences?• Description - resolved

Design an Outcomes Chain

Design a Theory of Action• What is needed to bring about each outcome in the outcomes chain?• Actors• Activities• Timing• Resources• Communication• Overarching theory

Example

Set Success Criteria for Each Step

1. Collect course data• 50% of faculty participate• Dataset 100% complete

2. Data guide decisions about needed revisions• 100% receive data report (faculty, ID, evaluator)• 100% complete “findings-action” (F-A) planning sheet• 75% agreement on F-A sheet

3. Establish an action plan for improvement• 100% faculty develop action plan• 100% action plans include ID and PD comments• 100% action plans measureable• 100% action plans have timeline

Design an Evaluation•Process

• Inputs• Cost, time, staff, materials, etc.

• Outputs• Each “link” in outcomes chain – success criteria

•Outcomes• Program goals

• Short, intermediate, long

Two Types of ComparisonsCongruence •Was each step achieved• If achieved, lead to desired “link”?•Breaks in the outcomes chain?

Associations/cause and effect

CongruenceAdequately implemented?

Sufficient participation and uptake?

Intermediate outcomes achieved?

Final outcomes achieved?

Interpretation

No No No No Implementation failure

Yes No No No Engagement failure

Yes Yes No No Early causal link failure

Yes Yes Yes No Later causal link failure

Yes Yes No Yes Different causal path

Yes Yes Yes Yes Theory success

Program Theory•Uses?•Importance?