programmalijn integrated assessment modellering …...the probability to reach the 2 c target (hare...

IMAGE RCP2.6

Tokyo, September 2009Detlef van Vuuren, Tom Kram

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)

The probability to reach the 2°C target(Hare & Meinshausen, 2004)

What would be needed to reach this target?


RCP 2.6

Peak in 2020/2025

40-50% reduction in 2050

Net negative for CO2 in 2100


IMAGE 2.4www.mnp.nl/image

IMAGE modelling framework

0.5° grid0.5° grid

(Magicc)global

regional

Baseline (BL)

mitigation


RCP 2.6

Nuclear

Renewables

Biofuels + CCS

Natural gas+CCS

Oil+CCS

Coal+CCS

Biofuels

Natural gas

Oil

Coal

Major changes in the global energy system

BioEnergy +

CCS (BECS

Default


IMAGE 2.6

Published in Climatic Change (2007), Energy (2007)

Further review by IAMC

Implemented in energy system model / physical world oriented IAM by cost-optimisation over time reducing abatement costs (all gases, land use)

Most important measures include energy efficiency, CCS, bio-energy + CCS… non-CO2 , nuclear, renewables


Most information now available at 0.5x0.5 degree

Forests

Desert

AgricultureIceTundra Ext. grasslandGrass

Bio-energyC-plantation


IMAGE 2.6 “inspired” lot of followers…Table: Description of scenario literature on medium to low mitigation scenarios Peaking year 2050 No. of

scenarios Cumuative emission 2000-2050

Cumulative emissions 2000-2100

I <2020 (<2015)

-85 to -40 (-50)

27 (6) 220-370 220-415

II <2020 -55 to -25 (-60 to -30)

25 (18) 280-430 385-485

III <2040 (<2030)

-30 to 25 79 (21) 355-460 550-655

Note: Table account for the studies included in AR4, EMF-22, the ADAM project and the Rao et al. (2008) study.


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Rad

iativ

e Fo

rcin

g (W

/m2)

MiniCAM 4.5

IMAGE 2.6

AIM 6.0

MES-A2R 8.5

IMAGE 2.9

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Emis

sion

s (G

tCO

2)

MiniCAM 4.5

IMAGE 2.6

AIM 6.0

MES-A2R 8.5

IMAGE 2.9

Range of Scenarios published so-far

Questions based on being the lowest


Research question based on RCP2.6 (1/7)

How many technologies can you loose?

Amount of CCS feasible??

1980 2010 2040 2070 21000

3

6

9

12St

orag

e (G

tC/y

r) Bio-energy Natural gas Oil Coal

1980 2010 2040 2070 21000

3

6

9

12

Stor

age

(GtC

/yr)

1980 2010 2040 2070 21000

3

6

9

122.9 W/m2 2.6 W/m2

Stor

age

(GtC

/yr)

2.9 W/m2 no BECS

NoNoNoNoYesYesYes

Eff. constraint

No sinksNo Bio-CCS

No CCSNuclearconstraint

Biomassconstraint

Default

NoNoNoNoYesYesYes

Eff. constraint

No sinksNo Bio-CCS

No CCSNuclearconstraint

Biomassconstraint

Default

33.23.52.9Yes

A2 land use

Eff. constraint

No-CCSNo Bio-CCS

Default

33.23.52.9Yes

A2 land use

Eff. constraint

No-CCSNo Bio-CCS

Default

MESSAGE

IMAGE


What can be achieved by non- CO2 /forests/biofuels

Lot of uncertainty for forestry – and little integrated assessment

For non-CO2 emissions reduction potential still limited to around 50%.

Biofuels : Estimates from 0-400 EJ/yr in sustainable way



1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 22000

50

100

150

200Grey areaHadSCCC1 (range+average)Red lines: MAGICC-6 (range+ average)

PAGE PAGE (10-90th) IMAGE MAGICC-4

Feed

back

(ppm

CO

2)

C4MIPrange+average

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 22000

50

100

150

200

Feed

back

(ppm

CO

2)

IMAGE at the low end of climate-carbon cycle feedback

Is the experiment reproducible under different climate cycle assumptions (3/7)

All kinds of feedbacks related to tundra, ecosystem response, artic etc.

Most low stabilisation runs only done by small climate models (PNAS paper)

IAMs currently advise overshoot (den Elzen, 2007)… but how reversible the carbon cycle?


When do countries need to reduce emissions (4/7)

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%

reduction from baseline in non-Annex I in 2020

redu

ctio

n be

low

199

0 le

vels

in A

nnex

I

2.6 Wm22.9 Wm2

EMF-22: 2.6 W/m2 not feasible with strong delay in participation of developing countries (China/India/Brazil/Russia 2030-2050; Rest > 2050)


The maximum speed of reduction

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Azar 350-BECSAzar 350-CCSAzar 350 NoCapIMAGE2.6IMAGE2.9MES-B2-3MES-B1-2.8


Rate of reduction in 10y periods in scenario literature (% of 2000 emissions)

<500 ppm Ca. 550 ppm

-5.0%

-3.8%

-2.6%

-1.4%

-0.2% 1.0%

2.2%

Occ

uran

ce

-5.0%

-3.8%

-2.6%

-1.4%

-0.2%

1.0%

2.2%

Ca. 650 ppm

-5.0%

-3.8%

-2.6%

-1.4%

-0.2%

1.0%

2.2%

Decrease Increase Decrease Increase Decrease Increase

Rate of reduction in 10y periods in scenario literature (% of 2000 emissions)

<500 ppm Ca. 550 ppm

-5.0%

-3.8%

-2.6%

-1.4%

-0.2% 1.0%

2.2%

Occ

uran

ce

-5.0%

-3.8%

-2.6%

-1.4%

-0.2%

1.0%

2.2%

Ca. 650 ppm

-5.0%

-3.8%

-2.6%

-1.4%

-0.2%

1.0%

2.2%

Decrease Increase Decrease Increase Decrease Increase

Avg. Max rate: -2.8% -2.5% -2%Avg. Rate: -1.1% -0.6% -0.2%

How to achieve this?What is the maximum speed of

reduction (socially / politically)?Building global coalitions?What experience do we have from

earlier situations (CFCs, WTO, putting the man on the moon…)


Is the IMAGE 2.6 too high or too low (costs and benefits) (6/7)?

Bill Nordhaus (2007)The optimal policy reduces the global temperature rise relative to 1900 to 2.8 °C in 2100 and to 3.4 °C in 2200.

Jim Hansen (2007):Based on climate model studies and the history of the Earth, the Hansen and Sato conclude that additional global warming of about 1ºC or more, above global temperature in 2000, is likely to be dangerous.



Bringing impacts, adaptation and mitigation togetherAgriculture SLR

4oC

2oC

4oC2oC

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Reference Adaptation Mitigation Adaptation andMitigation

disc

ount

ed G

DP

loss

residual damagesadaptation costsmitigation costs

More transparent, flexibleconnection with CBA(keep risk approach / monetary approach connected)

Make adaptation explicit

4oC 2oC

Aiming to integrate impact/adaptation research better into the mainstream assessment

Organise these communitiesCouple it better to IA

programmalijn integrated assessment modellering …...the probability to reach the 2 c target (hare...

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