progress pics 2
TRANSCRIPT
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Refining Life, Redefining Growth
25th April, 2007
FY 2006-07
Project Progress Update
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Contents
Project Progress Update
Global Refining Environment
Summary
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Crude prices recovered marginally
Downside risk limited, given stronger growth outlook
Jan 07 fall driven by:
Lower demand
Warm weather
High OPEC supplies
Recovery influenced by:
Renewed geopoliticaltension; Actions of Iran
Lower product
inventories in US
OPEC cuts
Colder weather & high
implied demand
Quarterly Marker Crude Oil Prices
3035
40
45
50
5560
65
70
75
Q42004
Q12005
Q22005
Q32005
Q42005
Q12006
Q22006
Q32006
Q42006
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Prices
in
$/b
bl
WTI
Brent Dubai
61.5
66.0
2006
55.449.533.723.4Dubai
58.056.641.526.6WTI
Q1 2007200520041999-2003US$/ bbl
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Margin Scenario Historic and Current
Conversion capacity crunch supportive of complex refiner margins
8.4
5.1
5.8
2006
8.4
4.1
6.8
Q1 2007
6.86.42.4Singapore
1.2
1.8
1999-2003
8.03.5USGC
6.44.6Europe
20052004US$/ bbl
Step jump in cracking margins since 2004 caused by;
Run-away growth in demand, especially in transportation fuels
Little capacity additions and tighter product specification
Sluggish Fuel Oil demand growth due to shift to cleaner Natural Gas
Lower margins in 2006 attributable to higher stock levels, benign storm season and
slow growth in demand on the back of high oil prices
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Singapore Margins : Simple vs. Complex
Complex refiners retain their competitive advantage
0.8
(0.1)
5.8
5.4
2006
5.55.13.21.2Light-Heavy Differential
1.0
0.7
2.4
1999-2003
1.21.72.0Sing Margins Dubai
Topping
0.61.23.1Demand growth in MMBD
6.86.86.4Sing Margins Dubai
cracking
Q1 200720052004US$/ bbl
Light - Heavy differential - Widest levels seen in recent years
Complex margins delta to simple margins (US$ 5.7/ bbl for 2006 and US$ 5.6/ bbl for
Q1 07), very strong in recent times
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The year ahead
2007: Shaping up as another strong year for complex refiners
Robust demand growth expectation of 1.5 MMBD.
Non OPEC production growth projected at less than 1 MMBD
CDU capacity additions at 1 MMBD - Lower than expected demand and supportive for margins.
US Gasoline lifts up the complex; margins may soften from current levels unless there is some
serious disruptions. Another rally may happen during hurricane season.
Following market indicators are supportive of strong complex margins:
Continuous reduction in US product inventories
Refinery capacity additions lagging demand growth
Tighter product specifications
Continued weakness in fuel oil alongwith strong gasoil margins
Residual fuel oil economical as supplementary feedstock
Strong hurricane season
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Global refining sector: Medium term outlook
Demand side
Medium term world GDP growth pegged higher-than-historical but lower than 2006
Demand growth during 2007-2009 at 5 MMBD vs. Annual growth of 1 MMBD during 93-'03
While heating oil demand may fluctuate with winter expectations, diesel demand is largely a
function of road / rail freight and, as such, a function of the economy.
Medium term demand side impact of bio fuels: very limited
Trade flows expected to be impacted by product quality considerations
Supply side
Project delays and construction bottlenecks push major capacity additions beyond 2011
Conversion capacity additions over the next 2 3 years much above historical; However,
still expected to lag demand growth
Western refiners adjusting throughput to support product margins
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Incremental capacity and refinery utilisation
Refining bottleneck unlikely to disappear before 2011
Source: Merrill Lynch
IncrementalCap
acityinMMBD
Due to delay in new projects commissioning, refinery utilisation expected to peak in
2009 indicating stretched refining capacity
Even by 2010, utilisation levels expected to be much higher long term historical
RefineryUtilisationratesin%
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Medium term margin outlook equally encouraging
$/bbl ESAI PEL POTEN Average 1999-03 2006
Dubai 46.2 56.9 55.5 52.9 23.4 61.5
Dated Brent 49.2 62.0 52.6 54.6 25.0 65.1
WTI 50.7 64.0 56.5 57.1 26.6 66.0CRACKS
Gasoil 7.8 12.3 10.9 10.3 4.4 15.3
Kerosene 9.9 16.5 13.4 13.3 5.7 19.1
Naphtha 2.3 2.3 1.0 1.9 1.9 0.3
Gasoline 8.8 9.3 10.6 9.6 5.4 11.7Fuel Oil -6.9 -7.4 -12.5 -8.9 -1.4 -12.7
Actuals
Product margins stronger than historical and weaker than current
Conversion capacity additions expected to make fuel oil less weak from current levels
ESAIs forecasts generally tend to be very conservative
Period of strong margins expected to extend till 2011
Crude price outlook: 2007-2011
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Trade Flows
Product specifications will govern trade flows
Refiner with flexibility to swing across different qualities at
production stage may exploit better opportunities
Trade routes to be longer requiring logistic optimisations
Flexibility in product export logistics
Higher parcel sizes
Break bulk operations
Process/ logistical flexibility: an imperative
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Summary Refinery Business Environment
Global economic growth projections supportive of demand growth
Geopolitical concerns and limited Non OPEC growth to support oil prices
Continuing slow growth in capacities due to delays / cancellation of new
projects to extend margin strength till 2011
Competitiveness of complex refiner expected to stay
Extended period of strong complex margins
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Summary Product Trade Flows
Product trade flows likely to be governed by:
Imbalances in individual grades
Flexibility to switch between grades
Longer hauls
RPL prepared to meet the market needs by virtue of
Ability to maximise ultra low sulfur products
Process/ logistical flexibility to switch between grades
Ability to load suezmax product parcels
RPL well positioned to respond to market needs
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RPL flexibility : A significant competitive advantage
Capability to produce ultra clean fuels
Process / logistical flexibility to switch between grades
Capability to handle up to suezmax product vessels
RPL fully geared to respond to market requirements and reap benefits
of emerging opportunities in the global refining environment
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Contents
Project Progress Update
Global Refining Environment
Summary
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Summary of Project Progress
Cumulative project progress of 50% as at year end
Basic engineering done; Detailed engineering work nearly completed
Procurement contracting for all key equipments completed
Equipment deliveries and their installations have commenced
Construction activities gained significant momentum during the quarter
Concurrent progress across all units; Skylines have change dramatically
Pipe racks and foundation works moving rapidly
Concreting activities nearing its peak; focus shifting towards piping work
Equipment erection activities begun and have gained significant momentum
Sufficient site infrastructure developed to sustain construction on fast track
Impressive project progress; On track for completion by Dec 08
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Engineering progress update
Nearly 80% of detailed engineering work completed
Entire project scope of concrete drawings delivered to site already
Over 70% of structural steel drawings completed; Focus now shifting on release of
piping isometrics and electrical as well as instrumentation engineering drawings
3D site modeling effort progressing rapidly to provide benefits superior
engineering quality, reduced construction interferences and rework at site
Over 7500 engineers working on the project across locations globally
Rapid engineering progress, supporting fast track construction
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Procurement progress update
Procurement and contracting activities nearly completed
Over 95% of tagged items ordered
Over 300 equipments, including several critical and long lead items, delivered at site
Equipment installations have commenced already
Substantial part of project bulks delivered at site
More than 85% of rebars, pipes, fittings, flanges and tankage plates
Over 80% of structural steel requirements delivered at site
Electrical Bulks first lot received
Emphasis shifting towards vendor monitoring and follow-up
Expediting and inspection of all critical and long lead equipments
Compliance with quality and delivery commitments
Deliveries and installation of long lead equipments taken off
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Construction progress update
Over 1,000,000 cubic meters of concreting work completed
Nearly 80% of concreting work for the project is complete now
Focus shifted towards underground laying, piping erection and equipment front generation
New construction record created during the fourth quarter
Over 185,000 cubic meters of concrete poured in a single month
Surpassed earlier record of 168,555 cu.m created by RPL in Dec06 and 154,000 cu.m created
during the implementation of RIL refinery
Nearly 40,000 tonnes of structural steel fabrication and about 34,000 tonnes of tankage
fabrication work completed, meeting nearly 80% of peak requirements
Site infrastructure in place to receive peak construction workforce during 1H FY 2007-08
Project concreting work nearing completion; Resource mobilised tosustain rapid pace of construction
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An aerial view of project site at Jamnagar
Snapshot of project progress
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FCC unit with OSBL pipe rack loaded with pipes
Snapshot of project progress
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Snapshot of project progress
FCC unit pipe rack construction making rapid progress
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Crude pipe rack in progress
Snapshot of project progress
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Alkylation plant overview
Snapshot of project progress
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Pressure swing absorption unit and reformer in HMU under installation
Snapshot of project progress
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Rapid progress in sulphur stack construction during the quarter
Dec06 Mar07
Snapshot of project progress
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Coke drum structure nearing completion
Snapshot of project progress
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Coker pipe rack in progress
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28Coker Nitrogen vessel under installation
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CFP heater and reactor structure
Snapshot of project progress
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30Coker EW Piperack
Snapshot of project progress
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Tanks in progress at the Refinery Tank Farm
Snapshot of project progress
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Central Control Building
Snapshot of project progress
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Snapshot of project progress
Changing Skylines JERP Aerial View
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Contents
Project Progress Update
Global Refining Environment
Summary
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Project implementation summary
Refinery progressing full steam to commence production in 2008
MilestoneExpected
Completion
Date
Months from
Zero DateCurrent Status
Start of the Project/Zero Date 01-Dec-05 Started
Technology Selection/Project Scope Jan-06 1 Completed
Completion of Basic Engineering May-06 6 Completed
Order placement for critical
equipmentMay-06 6 Completed
Completion of Detailed Engineering Sep-07 22 Ongoing
Completion of Civil work Nov-07 24 Started
Completion of Equipment Erection Jan-08 26
Mechanical Completion Aug-08 33Ready for Start Up (RFSU) All areas Sep-08 34
Commencement of operations Dec-08 36
Progressing
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Thank YouThank You