progress pics 2

Upload: fespindo

Post on 09-Apr-2018

216 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    1/36

    Refining Life, Redefining Growth

    25th April, 2007

    FY 2006-07

    Project Progress Update

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    2/36

    2

    Contents

    Project Progress Update

    Global Refining Environment

    Summary

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    3/36

    3

    Crude prices recovered marginally

    Downside risk limited, given stronger growth outlook

    Jan 07 fall driven by:

    Lower demand

    Warm weather

    High OPEC supplies

    Recovery influenced by:

    Renewed geopoliticaltension; Actions of Iran

    Lower product

    inventories in US

    OPEC cuts

    Colder weather & high

    implied demand

    Quarterly Marker Crude Oil Prices

    3035

    40

    45

    50

    5560

    65

    70

    75

    Q42004

    Q12005

    Q22005

    Q32005

    Q42005

    Q12006

    Q22006

    Q32006

    Q42006

    Jan-07

    Feb-07

    Mar-07

    Prices

    in

    $/b

    bl

    WTI

    Brent Dubai

    61.5

    66.0

    2006

    55.449.533.723.4Dubai

    58.056.641.526.6WTI

    Q1 2007200520041999-2003US$/ bbl

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    4/36

    4

    Margin Scenario Historic and Current

    Conversion capacity crunch supportive of complex refiner margins

    8.4

    5.1

    5.8

    2006

    8.4

    4.1

    6.8

    Q1 2007

    6.86.42.4Singapore

    1.2

    1.8

    1999-2003

    8.03.5USGC

    6.44.6Europe

    20052004US$/ bbl

    Step jump in cracking margins since 2004 caused by;

    Run-away growth in demand, especially in transportation fuels

    Little capacity additions and tighter product specification

    Sluggish Fuel Oil demand growth due to shift to cleaner Natural Gas

    Lower margins in 2006 attributable to higher stock levels, benign storm season and

    slow growth in demand on the back of high oil prices

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    5/36

    5

    Singapore Margins : Simple vs. Complex

    Complex refiners retain their competitive advantage

    0.8

    (0.1)

    5.8

    5.4

    2006

    5.55.13.21.2Light-Heavy Differential

    1.0

    0.7

    2.4

    1999-2003

    1.21.72.0Sing Margins Dubai

    Topping

    0.61.23.1Demand growth in MMBD

    6.86.86.4Sing Margins Dubai

    cracking

    Q1 200720052004US$/ bbl

    Light - Heavy differential - Widest levels seen in recent years

    Complex margins delta to simple margins (US$ 5.7/ bbl for 2006 and US$ 5.6/ bbl for

    Q1 07), very strong in recent times

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    6/366

    The year ahead

    2007: Shaping up as another strong year for complex refiners

    Robust demand growth expectation of 1.5 MMBD.

    Non OPEC production growth projected at less than 1 MMBD

    CDU capacity additions at 1 MMBD - Lower than expected demand and supportive for margins.

    US Gasoline lifts up the complex; margins may soften from current levels unless there is some

    serious disruptions. Another rally may happen during hurricane season.

    Following market indicators are supportive of strong complex margins:

    Continuous reduction in US product inventories

    Refinery capacity additions lagging demand growth

    Tighter product specifications

    Continued weakness in fuel oil alongwith strong gasoil margins

    Residual fuel oil economical as supplementary feedstock

    Strong hurricane season

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    7/367

    Global refining sector: Medium term outlook

    Demand side

    Medium term world GDP growth pegged higher-than-historical but lower than 2006

    Demand growth during 2007-2009 at 5 MMBD vs. Annual growth of 1 MMBD during 93-'03

    While heating oil demand may fluctuate with winter expectations, diesel demand is largely a

    function of road / rail freight and, as such, a function of the economy.

    Medium term demand side impact of bio fuels: very limited

    Trade flows expected to be impacted by product quality considerations

    Supply side

    Project delays and construction bottlenecks push major capacity additions beyond 2011

    Conversion capacity additions over the next 2 3 years much above historical; However,

    still expected to lag demand growth

    Western refiners adjusting throughput to support product margins

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    8/368

    Incremental capacity and refinery utilisation

    Refining bottleneck unlikely to disappear before 2011

    Source: Merrill Lynch

    IncrementalCap

    acityinMMBD

    Due to delay in new projects commissioning, refinery utilisation expected to peak in

    2009 indicating stretched refining capacity

    Even by 2010, utilisation levels expected to be much higher long term historical

    RefineryUtilisationratesin%

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    9/369

    Medium term margin outlook equally encouraging

    $/bbl ESAI PEL POTEN Average 1999-03 2006

    Dubai 46.2 56.9 55.5 52.9 23.4 61.5

    Dated Brent 49.2 62.0 52.6 54.6 25.0 65.1

    WTI 50.7 64.0 56.5 57.1 26.6 66.0CRACKS

    Gasoil 7.8 12.3 10.9 10.3 4.4 15.3

    Kerosene 9.9 16.5 13.4 13.3 5.7 19.1

    Naphtha 2.3 2.3 1.0 1.9 1.9 0.3

    Gasoline 8.8 9.3 10.6 9.6 5.4 11.7Fuel Oil -6.9 -7.4 -12.5 -8.9 -1.4 -12.7

    Actuals

    Product margins stronger than historical and weaker than current

    Conversion capacity additions expected to make fuel oil less weak from current levels

    ESAIs forecasts generally tend to be very conservative

    Period of strong margins expected to extend till 2011

    Crude price outlook: 2007-2011

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    10/3610

    Trade Flows

    Product specifications will govern trade flows

    Refiner with flexibility to swing across different qualities at

    production stage may exploit better opportunities

    Trade routes to be longer requiring logistic optimisations

    Flexibility in product export logistics

    Higher parcel sizes

    Break bulk operations

    Process/ logistical flexibility: an imperative

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    11/3611

    Summary Refinery Business Environment

    Global economic growth projections supportive of demand growth

    Geopolitical concerns and limited Non OPEC growth to support oil prices

    Continuing slow growth in capacities due to delays / cancellation of new

    projects to extend margin strength till 2011

    Competitiveness of complex refiner expected to stay

    Extended period of strong complex margins

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    12/3612

    Summary Product Trade Flows

    Product trade flows likely to be governed by:

    Imbalances in individual grades

    Flexibility to switch between grades

    Longer hauls

    RPL prepared to meet the market needs by virtue of

    Ability to maximise ultra low sulfur products

    Process/ logistical flexibility to switch between grades

    Ability to load suezmax product parcels

    RPL well positioned to respond to market needs

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    13/3613

    RPL flexibility : A significant competitive advantage

    Capability to produce ultra clean fuels

    Process / logistical flexibility to switch between grades

    Capability to handle up to suezmax product vessels

    RPL fully geared to respond to market requirements and reap benefits

    of emerging opportunities in the global refining environment

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    14/3614

    Contents

    Project Progress Update

    Global Refining Environment

    Summary

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    15/3615

    Summary of Project Progress

    Cumulative project progress of 50% as at year end

    Basic engineering done; Detailed engineering work nearly completed

    Procurement contracting for all key equipments completed

    Equipment deliveries and their installations have commenced

    Construction activities gained significant momentum during the quarter

    Concurrent progress across all units; Skylines have change dramatically

    Pipe racks and foundation works moving rapidly

    Concreting activities nearing its peak; focus shifting towards piping work

    Equipment erection activities begun and have gained significant momentum

    Sufficient site infrastructure developed to sustain construction on fast track

    Impressive project progress; On track for completion by Dec 08

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    16/3616

    Engineering progress update

    Nearly 80% of detailed engineering work completed

    Entire project scope of concrete drawings delivered to site already

    Over 70% of structural steel drawings completed; Focus now shifting on release of

    piping isometrics and electrical as well as instrumentation engineering drawings

    3D site modeling effort progressing rapidly to provide benefits superior

    engineering quality, reduced construction interferences and rework at site

    Over 7500 engineers working on the project across locations globally

    Rapid engineering progress, supporting fast track construction

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    17/3617

    Procurement progress update

    Procurement and contracting activities nearly completed

    Over 95% of tagged items ordered

    Over 300 equipments, including several critical and long lead items, delivered at site

    Equipment installations have commenced already

    Substantial part of project bulks delivered at site

    More than 85% of rebars, pipes, fittings, flanges and tankage plates

    Over 80% of structural steel requirements delivered at site

    Electrical Bulks first lot received

    Emphasis shifting towards vendor monitoring and follow-up

    Expediting and inspection of all critical and long lead equipments

    Compliance with quality and delivery commitments

    Deliveries and installation of long lead equipments taken off

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    18/3618

    Construction progress update

    Over 1,000,000 cubic meters of concreting work completed

    Nearly 80% of concreting work for the project is complete now

    Focus shifted towards underground laying, piping erection and equipment front generation

    New construction record created during the fourth quarter

    Over 185,000 cubic meters of concrete poured in a single month

    Surpassed earlier record of 168,555 cu.m created by RPL in Dec06 and 154,000 cu.m created

    during the implementation of RIL refinery

    Nearly 40,000 tonnes of structural steel fabrication and about 34,000 tonnes of tankage

    fabrication work completed, meeting nearly 80% of peak requirements

    Site infrastructure in place to receive peak construction workforce during 1H FY 2007-08

    Project concreting work nearing completion; Resource mobilised tosustain rapid pace of construction

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    19/36

    19

    An aerial view of project site at Jamnagar

    Snapshot of project progress

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    20/36

    20

    FCC unit with OSBL pipe rack loaded with pipes

    Snapshot of project progress

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    21/36

    21

    Snapshot of project progress

    FCC unit pipe rack construction making rapid progress

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    22/36

    22

    Crude pipe rack in progress

    Snapshot of project progress

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    23/36

    23

    Alkylation plant overview

    Snapshot of project progress

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    24/36

    24

    Pressure swing absorption unit and reformer in HMU under installation

    Snapshot of project progress

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    25/36

    25

    Rapid progress in sulphur stack construction during the quarter

    Dec06 Mar07

    Snapshot of project progress

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    26/36

    26

    Coke drum structure nearing completion

    Snapshot of project progress

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    27/36

    27

    Coker pipe rack in progress

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    28/36

    28Coker Nitrogen vessel under installation

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    29/36

    29

    CFP heater and reactor structure

    Snapshot of project progress

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    30/36

    30Coker EW Piperack

    Snapshot of project progress

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    31/36

    31

    Tanks in progress at the Refinery Tank Farm

    Snapshot of project progress

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    32/36

    32

    Central Control Building

    Snapshot of project progress

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    33/36

    33

    Snapshot of project progress

    Changing Skylines JERP Aerial View

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    34/36

    34

    Contents

    Project Progress Update

    Global Refining Environment

    Summary

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    35/36

    35

    Project implementation summary

    Refinery progressing full steam to commence production in 2008

    MilestoneExpected

    Completion

    Date

    Months from

    Zero DateCurrent Status

    Start of the Project/Zero Date 01-Dec-05 Started

    Technology Selection/Project Scope Jan-06 1 Completed

    Completion of Basic Engineering May-06 6 Completed

    Order placement for critical

    equipmentMay-06 6 Completed

    Completion of Detailed Engineering Sep-07 22 Ongoing

    Completion of Civil work Nov-07 24 Started

    Completion of Equipment Erection Jan-08 26

    Mechanical Completion Aug-08 33Ready for Start Up (RFSU) All areas Sep-08 34

    Commencement of operations Dec-08 36

    Progressing

  • 8/8/2019 Progress Pics 2

    36/36

    Thank YouThank You