project 5: projecting and quantifying future changes in ... · project 5: projecting and...
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Project 5: Projecting and Quantifying Future Changes in Socioeconomic Drivers of Air Pollution and its Health-Related ImpactsNoelle E. SelinAssociate ProfessorInstitute for Data, Systems and Society and Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyAssociate Director, Technology and Policy [email protected]://mit.edu/selin http://mit.edu/selingroupTwitter: @noelleselin
Co-Is:SusanSolomon(MITEAPS),StevenR.H.Barrett(MITAero/Astro),JohnReilly(MITSloan)
ScienceAdvisoryBoard16May2017
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Objectives• Objective 1. Improving methods and tools
– Further develop and enhance methods and tools for understanding and assessing the relative importance of global change, technologies, and policies to air quality, relative to other uncertainties.
• Objectives 2 and 3: Air pollution and health implications of policies and technologies
– Quantify the future implications of modifiable factors such as technologies and efficiency improvements in the energy and transportation sectors on regional differences in air pollution impacts.
– Characterize state- and regional-level carbon policy implementation measures with respect to their air pollution health co-benefits.
• Objective 4. Air toxics – Assess how human exposure and impacts from different pollutants and mixtures
may shift over time, and identify potential strategies for regions to shift to less toxic mixtures.
• Objective 5. Influence of Climate– Identify the importance of climate (e.g., temperature, meteorological) change to
the formulation of robust strategies for mitigating health and environmental impacts.
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Outline• Introduce Objectives• Initial Results:
– Climate variability, change, and air quality (Objective 1, Objective 5)
– Cross-state pollutant transport (Objective 1, Objective 2-3)
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•1
Policies, strategies, technologies
Economic activity linked to emissions
Atmospheric chemistry
and transport
Health outcomes and economic
estimates
Objective 1: Improving methods and toolsMIT Integrated Economy-Air Quality-Health Assessment Framework
Economic and sector modeling
SMOKEpreprocessor;emissionscaling
CAMx,GEOS-Chem
BenMAP
USREP,ReEDS
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Objective 2/3: Air pollution and health implications of policies and technologiesPotential for co-benefits from CO2 policy at national scale
Co-benefits exceed costs for cap-and-trade, clean energy policies at national scale
– Each line: a different economic assumption
– Vertical error bars: 95% CI for benefits
Formoreinformation:Thompson,T.M.,S.Rausch,R.K.Saari,andN.E.Selin.2014."ASystemsApproachtoEvaluatingtheAirQualityCo-BenefitsofU.S.CarbonPolicies."NatureClimateChange4,917-923.
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Formoreinformation:Thompson,T.M.,S.Rausch,R.K.Saari,andN.E.Selin.2016.”AirQualityCo-BenefitsofSubnationalClimatePolicies.”JournaloftheAirandWasteManagementAssociation
Co-benefits for Northeast clean energy, cap-and-trade policies• Regional
benefits exceed costs
• Some areas of potential disbenefit
Objective 2/3: Air pollution and health implications of policies and technologiesRegional policies can have nation-wide impacts
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Formoreinformation:seeEmilDimantchev,MeiYuan
Objective 2/3: Air pollution and health implications of policies and technologiesNew work: What are the costs and (air pollution health co-)benefits of state-level Renewable Portfolio Standards?
Policies-RPSrepealed-RPSunchanged-RPSexpanded
USRegionalEnergyPolicyCGEModel
SMOKE
Reduced-formairpollutioncostmodel(EASIUR,InMAP…)
Futurewelfarecost
FutureVSL-basedbenefits
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Formoreinformation:A.Giang,L.C.Stokes,D.G.Streets,E.S.Corbitt,andN.E.Selin.2015."ImpactsoftheMinamata Conventiononmercuryemissionsandglobaldepositionfromcoal-firedpowergenerationinAsia."EnvironmentalScienceandTechnology49,5326-5335.
Morestringentmercury(endofpipe)regulations
Energytransformation(e.g.climatepolicy)Projectedem
issionsin2050
Objective 4: Air toxicsCO2 controls can also have benefits for mercury emissions
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Formoreinformation:P.J.Wolfe,A.Giang,A.Ashok,N.E.SelinandS.R.H.Barrett.2016.“CostsofIQLossfromLeadedAviationGasolineEmissions.”EnvironmentalScienceandTechnology,50(17):9026–9033
LeademissionsfromgeneralaviationaircraftovertheU.S.canleadto$1billionindamagesfromlifetimeearningsreductions(duetoIQloss),plusanadditional$0.5billionduetolostproductivity
Objective 4: Air toxicsSmall sources (Pb from general aviation) can have large impacts
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Dailymax.8hrO3 PM2.5
US-averagepopulation-weightedannualconcentrations:
3.2± 0.3
0.8± 0.3
2.9± 0.3 1.5± 0.1
0.5 ± 0.1
1.2± 0.1
Formoreinformation:F.Garcia-Menendez,R.K.Saari,E.Monier,andN.E.Selin.2015.“U.S.airqualityandhealthbenefitsfromavoidedclimatechangeundergreenhousegasmitigation.”EnvironmentalScienceandTechnology,49,7580–7588.
Objective 5: ClimateCarbon policy can have direct benefit to U.S. air pollution
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Policycost&mortalitybenefits(VSL-based)asfractionofREFscenarioU.S.GDP:
ClimatepolicyrelativetoReferencescenario:
Modeledreductions:(U.S.population-weighted)>1µgm-3 and2.5ppb by2100
AvoidedU.S.deaths:2050:>10,000(4,000- 22,000)2100:>50,000(19,000- 95,000)
Garcia-Menendezetal.,ES&T,2015
Objective 5: ClimateClimate policy health benefits and costs
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Objective 5: Climate and air qualityMulti-model Framework
Climate Chemistry
GEOS-Chem
CESM/CAM
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Objective 5: Climate and air quality Dimensions of Uncertainty
ChangeinUS-averagedtemperaturesimulatedbyCAM-Chemensembleforreferenceclimatesensitivity(3.0deg C)andpolicycase
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ChangeinUS-averagedtemperaturesimulatedbyCAM-Chemensembleforreferenceclimatesensitivity(3.0deg C)andpolicycase+alternativeclimatesensitivities
Objective 5: Climate and air quality Dimensions of Uncertainty
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ChangeinUS-averagedtemperaturesimulatedbyCAM-Chemensembleforreferenceclimatesensitivity(3.0deg C)andpolicycase+alternativeemissionspathways
Objective 5: ClimateDimensions of Uncertainty
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ChangeinUS-averagedtemperaturesimulatedbyCAM-Chemensembleforreferenceclimatesensitivity(3.0deg C)andpolicycasewithoverlappingperiodssimulatedbyGEOS-Chem
Objectiv 5 : Climate and air quality Dimensions of Uncertainty
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2100ReferencescenarioU.S.-averageO3 “climatepenalty”estimatedusing5modelinitializations:
Averaging period (years)
F.Garcia-Menendezetal.,GRL,2017
Results 1: Climate and air quality Natural variability can affect estimates of the “climate penalty”
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Results 1: Climate and air quality Large changes in summer O3/PM2.5 detectable by 2100 in reference case
Signal/NoiseRatio
O3 PM2.5
GEOS-Ch
emCESM
/CAM
-Che
m
Seeposter:D.Rothenberg
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Results 1: Climate and air quality It may be difficult to detect climate-forced changes in O3/PM2.5under policy scenarios
Signal/NoiseRatio– SummertimeSfc Ozone
NoPolicy
ModeratePolicy
AmbitiousPolicy
2035-2065 2085-2115
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Results 1: Climate and air quality It may be difficult to detect climate-forced changes in O3/PM2.5under policy scenarios
Signal/NoiseRatio– SummertimeSfc PM2.5
NoPolicy
ModeratePolicy
AmbitiousPolicy
2035-2065 2085-2115
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Pollution transport
• Air pollution does not consider political boundaries
• 8 states (46 counties) do not meet the 24-hour PM2.5 standards*
• 4 states (20 counties ) do not meet the annual PM2.5 standards*
• Clean Air Act (CAA) section 110(a)(2)(D)(i)(I) “[prohibits] any
source or other type of emissions activity within the State from
emitting any air pollutant in amounts which will […] contribute
significantly to nonattainment in, or interfere with maintenance by,
any other State with respect to any such national primary or
secondary ambient air quality standard”
*Source: https://www.epa.gov/green-book
Results 2: Pollution Transport
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Transport rule I
• May 2005: Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)• 28 states and the District of Columbia to reduce SO2 and/or
NOx emissions• July 2008: US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit remanded CAIR
to the Agency• July 2011: Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR)
• 23 states to reduce annual SO2 and NOX emissions to helpdownwind areas attain the 24-Hour and/or Annual PM2.5
NAAQS• CSAPR implementation in 2015 and 2017
Pollution transportResults 2: Pollution TransportTransport Rule I
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• Objective: Assess the cross-state impacts in the US
• For every sector
• For every species
• For 2005 and 2011 (and 2018)
• Other work:
• Specific sectors [Greco et al.(2007), Bastien et al. (2015)]
• Specific locations/regions [Menut et al. (2000)]
• Specific species [Turner et al. (2015), Zhu et al. (2015)]
• Older inventories
• Simplified models
Results 2: Pollution TransportThis work
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Modeling challenge
• Computationally expensive chemistry transport modelssimulate chemistry, transport and deposition
Population exposure to
PM2.5
Emissions
Results 2: Pollution TransportModeling Challenge
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Modeling challenge
• Computationally expensive chemistry transport modelssimulate chemistry, transport and deposition
• ‘Forward’ modeling: resolution in the output (impacts)
Population exposure to
PM2.5
Emissions
~X
T
EPM2.5
Results 2: Pollution TransportModeling Challenge
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Modeling challenge
• Computationally expensive chemistry transport modelssimulate chemistry, transport and deposition
• ‘Forward’ modeling: resolution in the output• Adjoint modeling: resolution in the input (sources)
- allows us to quantify contribution to a quantity ofinterest (objective function) from control parameters
Population exposure to
PM2.5
Emissions
Ew
~x
t
Control parameters
Objective function
Results 2: Pollution TransportModeling Challenge
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@J
@Ew(i, j, k, t)
• The adjoint method is a computationally efficient way ofcalculating sensitivities of a (scalar) quantity of interest to avariety of parameters (e.g. emissions)
• It provides high resolution in the inputs (temporal, spatial and interms of species), and it thus allows to quantify what parametersdrive the aggregated quantity of interest (objective function)
objective function (scalar)
3D grid cell
timeEmissions species
Results 2: Pollution TransportAdjoint Motivation
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• Mostly scientific (focusing on specific processes and/or speciesand/or optimizing the model)
• In the past few years applications have also started movingtoward policy:- Koo et al. (2013) on intercontinental aircraft pollution
transport- Dedoussi and Barrett (2014) on origins of PM2.5 mortalities in
the US- Turner et al. (2015) on BC source apportionment (CMAQ
adjoint)- Lee at al. (2015) on global PM2.5 mortalities’ origins- …
Results 2: Pollution TransportAdjoint applications so far
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@J
@Ew(i, j, k, t)
• Can quantify exchange of air pollution impacts (PM2.5 exposure) between the states
• High number of inputs that drive impacts
PM2.5 exposure in every state
for each emissions species
origin of impacts (states)
time of emission
Results 2: Pollution TransportCross-state pollution in the U.S.
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• Using:- Adjoint of GEOS-Chem CTM [Henze et al. (2007)]
- EPA NEI 2005 and 2011[US EPA (2008, 2013)]
- EPA derived Concentration Response Function [US EPA (2011)]
• Sectors defined: [Caiazzo et al. (2013); Dedoussi and Barrett (2014)]
: = Change in population exposure
Electric power generation Road transportationCommercial/residential Marine transportation
Industry Rail transportation
• Impacts estimated:
@J
@Ew(i, j, k, t)
@J
@Ew(i, j, k, t)
Results 2: Pollution TransportCross-state: approach summary
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Preliminary results – Please do not cite or quote
• Source-receptor matrix produced for allstates, sectors and species
• Impacts expressed in prematuremortalities
Bureau of Economic Analysis regions
Results 2: Pollution TransportRegional Trans-boundary results -- 2005
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Preliminary results – Please do not cite or quote
Results 2: Pollution TransportCross-state results -- 2005
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Preliminary results – Please do not cite or quote
Results 2: Pollution TransportCross-state results -- 2005
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Preliminary results – Please do not cite or quote
Results 2: Pollution TransportCross-state results -- 2005
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Preliminary results – Please do not cite or quote
Results 2: Pollution TransportCross-state results -- 2005
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IN 4,690KY 2,750WV 2,530PA 2,030AL 1,520
CT -1,000GA -1,420MA -2,110NC -2,490NY -10,400
MO 60NV 50VT 20AR -2CA -80
Net exchange = Total deaths exported – total deaths imported
+ve: exporter states --ve: importer states~ 0: neutral states
Results 2: Pollution TransportNet Mortalities
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• Net flux of impacts between states, shown for the top 10 net fluxes• Expressed in premature deaths
Results 2: Pollution TransportTop 10 net fluxes
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Acknowledgments• Funding:
– EPA ACE Center– Other work shown here: U.S. EPA Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Program, U.S.
EPA Climate Change Division; MIT's Leading Technology and Policy Initiative; U.S. National Science Foundation Atmospheric Chemistry, Coupled Natural and Human Systems, and Arctic Natural Sciences programs; MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy of Global Change (and its industrial and foundation sponsors); MIT Research Support Committee Wade Fund; MIT Environmental Solutions Initiative; MIT Center for Environmental Health Sciences/National Institutes of Health (NIEHS)