project management by: jonathan daun adriana leon adam goplin
TRANSCRIPT
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
By: Jonathan Daun Adriana Leon Adam Goplin
WHAT IS PROJECT MANAGEMENT?
Project: Unique, one-time operation designed to accomplish a set of objectives in a limited time frame
Examples: building a bridge, designing a new product, software development, implementing an ERP system
HOW ARE PROJECTS DIFFERENT?
Projects differ from normal operations: One time operation Limited time horizon Limited budget Unique specifications May work across organizational boundaries Less bureaucratic
LIFE CYCLE OF PROJECTS
Project Definition Planning Implementation (Execution of Major
Activities) Project Phaseout
ROLES – PROJECT CHAMPION
Task of promoting and supporting a project Usually a member of upper management
with good communication skills Solicits buy-in from other managers,
particularly those who must concede resources to the project
ROLES – PROJECT TEAM MEMBERS
Posses required knowledge and skill to complete tasks
Responsible for technical design, development, testing, and implementation of project
Must work well in team setting Must have enthusiasm/buy-in to project
ROLES – PROJECT MANAGER
Bears ultimate responsibility for success/failure of project Leadership Organization Communication Finance Technical savvy Team building/HR management
PROJECT MANAGEMENT TRIANGLE
Quality
Cost
Schedule
Performance Objectives
WORK BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE (WBS)
Hierarchical listing of tasks that must be accomplished for a project
Identifies required activities and major elements
Each major element is broken down into supporting activities and so on down
WBS EXAMPLE (DWIGHT FISCHER)
Canoe Trip to Boundary Waters
Arrange Travel Get Equipment Prepare BudgetPlan Meals
Schedule Flights to Mpls
Rent Van
Arrange Motel
Schedule return flights
Contact BW Outfitter Bring cooking gear
Freeze dry food
Assign Budget Person
Get deposits
Retain Receipts
Pay for supplies
Close-out trip
Plan for Emergencies
Plan Activities
Rent canoes
Rent Tents
Bring Sleeping Bags
Bring Fishing Gear
Prepare 7 breakfasts
Prepare 7 lunches
Prepare 6 dinners
Obtain emerg. #’s
Arrange contact at BW
Bring emerg. flares
Bring two first aid kits
Bring Cards
Bring Joke book
Bring scotch
Bring lights and waterproof
matches
SELECTING PROJECTS
Limited resources means not all projects can be undertaken
Factors for selecting projects: Budgets Availability of expertise/skill Cost-benefit analysis Government mandates Safety concerns
GANTT CHARTS
Used to schedule and monitor project activities
Lists project activities, estimates of activity time length, and sequence of activities
PROS/CONS OF WORKING ON PROJECTS
ProsRewards associated with being part of
successful projectThrill of working on different/unusual tasks
and solving new problemsOpportunities to meet new contacts &
increase future job opportunities Cons
Managers don’t want to lose good workers to projects
Disruption of daily routineRisk of being replaced on current jobFear of association with unsuccessful
project
WHY PROJECTS FAIL
Unrealistic expectations Lack of executive sponsorship Lack of project management Failure to align project with organizational
objectives Poor scope Politics/conflicts
WHAT IS PERT?
Project Evaluation and Review Technique Developed in 1958 by Navy Used in the POLARIS missile program Helps forecast project completion date
1) How does the cost of work performed compare to the value of the work performed?
2) What is the value (in dollars) of work performed so far?
3) How does the amount of money spent so far on a project compare to what should have been spent?
PERT
PERT - a management tool for defining and integrating events; a process which must be accomplished in time to assure completing project objectives on schedule.
3 basic factors influence project progress: a) time b) resources c) technology
PERT
Objectives: To provide, through applying an integrated
management information system (which contains a balanced combination of the basic elements of time, cost, and performance)
coordinate planning and control information at the proper levels so that timely managerial judgments will meet all established project objectives.
PERT NETWORK
Events may be represented in a PERT network by any selected geometric figure (ovals, circles, squares).
The events must follow logically.
The arrows indicate the flow in the PERT network and the numbers identify the events. The arrows and not the #’s indicate the order of events. Events that immediately follow one another are called successor events. Similarly, a predecessor event is one which immediately precedes another event.
PERT NETWORK
Key features of a PERT network are: 1) Events must take place in a logical order. 2) Activities represent the time and the work it takes to get from one event to another.
3) No event can be considered reached until ALL activities leading to the event are completed. 4) No activity may be begun until the event preceding it has been reached.
STEPS:
Step 1: *Define tasks Step 2: *Place tasks in a logical order, find
the critical path Critical path- longest time path through the task
network which dictate finish date Step 3: Generate estimates Step 4: Determine earliest and latest dates Step 5: Determine probability of meeting
expected date
*Don’t require calculations. Use logic.*
EXAMPLE: PLANTING FLOWERS & TREES
Helpful to create a diagram:
CALCULATING PERT: STEPS 1&2
Step 1: *Define tasks Step 2: *Place tasks in a logical order, find
the critical path
*Don’t require calculations. Use logic.*
STEP 3: GENERATE ESTIMATES
Organize your estimates into a table Calculate:
Most Optimistic (TO) – best case scenarioMost Likely (TL) “normal” scenarioMost Pessimistic (TP) Worst case scenario
Use PERT formula to calculate each scenario (TO x 1 + TL x 4 + TP x 1) / 6 = TEsum of (optimistic x 1 + likely x 4 + pessimistic x 1) /
by 6 = expected task duration Group tasks on critical path separately TE is earliest possible completion time
STEP 3A: GET ORGANIZED
STEP 3B: GENERATE ESTIMATES
Calculate standard deviation Standard deviation- average deviation from the
estimated time SD=(TP-T0)/6
higher the SD is the greater amount of uncertainty exists
Calculate variance reflects the spread of a value over a normal
distribution V=SD2
a large variance indicates great uncertainty, a small variance indicates a more accurate estimate
TE: EXPECTED TASK DURATION
1) For each TE cell: (TO*1+ TL*4+ TP*1)/6
Use sum formula to add TE column.
SD: STANDARD DEVIATION Use excel formula:
SD=(TP-T0)/6
V:VARIANCE
Use Excel formulaV=SD2
Use sum formula for V column
Critical Path Tasks (longest duration)Task To TL TP TE SD V
Mark Utilities 1 3 5 =SUM(B3*1+C3*4+D3*1)/6 =(D3-B3)/6 =F3*F3
Dig holes 2 4 7 =SUM(B4*1+C4*4+D4*1)/6 =(D4-B4)/6 =F4*F4
Plant trees 1 3 6 =SUM(B5*1+C5*4+D5*1)/6 =(D5-B5)/6 =F5*F5
Plant flowers 1 3 5 =SUM(B6*1+C6*4+D6*1)/6 =(D6-B6)/6 =F6*F6
Install edging 1 2 4 =SUM(B7*1+C7*4+D7*1)/6 =(D7-B7)/6 =F7*F7TOTAL =SUM(E3:E7) =SUM(G3:G7)
Enter desired time completion date: 15 Probability of completion: =NORMDIST(B10,E8,SQRT(G8),TRUE)
Critical Path Tasks (longest duration)Task To TL TP TE ES EF LS LF SLACK SD V
Mark Utilities 1 3 5 3.00 0 3 0 3 0 0.667 0.444
Dig holes 2 4 7 4.17 3 7 3 7 0 0.833 0.694
Plant trees 1 3 6 3.17 7 10.17 7 10.17 0 0.833 0.694
Plant flowers 1 3 5 3.00 10 13 10 13 0 0.667 0.444
Install edging 1 2 4 2.17 13 15.17 13 15.17 0 0.500 0.250
TOTAL 15.50 2.528
Enter desired time completion date: 15 Probability of completion: 37.66%
Critical Path Tasks (longest duration)Task To TL TP TE ES EF LS LF SLACK SD V
Buy Trees 0.5 1 3 1.25 0 1.25 3 4.25 3 0.125 0.015625
Buy Flowers 0.5 1 3 1.25 0 1.25 3 4.25 3 0.125 0.015625
Buy Edging 0.5 1 3 1.25 1.25 2.5 4.25 5.5 3 0.125 0.015625
TOTAL 3.75 0.047
ES=Earliest Start EF= Earliest Finish LS=Latest Start LF=Latest Finish
STEP 4: DATES For each task, determine the latest allowable time for
moving to the next task Slack- difference between latest time and expected time
Tasks with zero slack time are on the critical path
Critical Path Tasks (longest duration)Task To TL TP TE ES EF LS LF SLACK SD V
Mark Utilities 1 3 5 =SUM(B3*1+C3*4+D3*1)/6 0 3 0 3 =I3-G3 =(D3-B3)/6 =K3*K3Dig holes 2 4 7 =SUM(B4*1+C4*4+D4*1)/6 3 7.17 3 7.17 =I4-G4 =(D4-B4)/6 =K4*K4Plant trees 1 3 6 =SUM(B5*1+C5*4+D5*1)/6 7 10.17 7 10.17 =I5-G5 =(D5-B5)/6 =K5*K5Plant flowers 1 3 5 =SUM(B6*1+C6*4+D6*1)/6 10 13 10 13 =I6-G6 =(D6-B6)/6 =K6*K6Install edging 1 2 4 =SUM(B7*1+C7*4+D7*1)/6 13 15.17 13 15.17 =I7-G7 =(D7-B7)/6 =K7*K7TOTAL =SUM(E3:E7) =SUM(L3:L7)
Enter desired time completion date: 15 Probability of completion:=NORMDIST(B10,E8,SQRT(L8),
TRUE)
Critical Path Tasks (longest duration)Task To TL TP TE ES EF LS LF SLACK SD V
Buy Trees 0.5 1 3 =SUM(B14*1,C14*4+D14*1)/6 0 1.25 3 4.25 =I14-G14 =(E14-B14)/6 =K14*K14Buy Flowers 0.5 1 3 =SUM(B15*1,C15*4+D15*1)/6 0 1.25 3 4.25 =I15-G15 =(E15-B15)/6 =K15*K15Buy Edging 0.5 1 3 =SUM(B16*1,C16*4+D16*1)/6 1.25 2.5 4.25 5.5 =I16-G16 =(E16-B16)/6 =K16*K16TOTAL =SUM(E14:E16) =SUM(L14:L16)
ES=Earliest Start EF= Earliest Finish LS=Latest Start LF=Latest Finish
STEP 5: PROBABILITIES
Use Excel formula =NORMDIST(x, mean, standard_dev, cumulative)
X is the value for which you want the distribution (desired date)
Mean is the arithmetic mean of the distribution (summed PERT expected durations)
Standard_dev is the standard deviation of the distribution (square root of the summed variances)
Cumulative is a logical value that determines the form of the function. If cumulative is TRUE, NORMDIST returns the cumulative distribution function (probability of completion on the date entered)
PERT IN A NUTSHELL: 1) A management tool for defining and coordinating what must be
done to accomplish a project’s objectives on time. These tasks were affected by our constructing a diagram of the PERT network.
2) A technique that aids the manager but does not decide for
him. He uses it to calculate variance, slack, probability, and time estimates.
3) A technique that presents statistical knowledge about the uncertainties faced in completing the many activities associated with a project -- with it we calculated the expected task duration, variance, and probability.
4) A method for attracting a manager’s attention to latent
problems that require decisions and/or solutions. We used it to analyze the PERT network for critical paths and slacks.
5) A method of attracting a manager’s attention to procedures for
adjusting time, resources, or performance to meet target dates. He does so by analyzing the PERT network for areas of possible resource reallocation.
CPM (CRITICAL PATH METHOD)KEY PM (PROJECT MANAGEMENT) TERMS
Critical Path: The longest path (time) through the task network. The series of tasks (or single task) that dictates
the calculated finish date of the project (in other words, when the last task in the critical path is done the
project is done).
-If shortened, it will decrease overall projectcompletion time.
-Activities outside the CP would not effect overall PC time.
Slack Time: The amount of time a task can be delayed before the project finish date is delayed.
-TS (Total Slack) can be either positive (+) or negative (-).
-If Positive: indicates amount of time that the task can be delayed w/out delaying project finish
date.
-If Negative: indicates amount of time that must be saved so that the project finish date is not
delayed.
- TS = Latest Start – Earliest Start
- A task w/ a TS = 0 is a Critical Task ( Float Time)
CPM (CRITICAL PATH METHOD)KEY PM TERMS (CONT.)
CPM (CRITICAL PATH METHOD)KEY PM TERMS (CONT.)
Constraints: Restrictions set on the start/finish date of a task. You can specify that a task must start
on/finish no later than a particular date. 2 Types:
1- Flexible: As soon as possible (ASAP) / as late as possible (ALAP) do not have specific times
allocated. Setting these times enables you to begin tasks ASAP/ALAP w/ the task ending before the project finish.
-Must take into consideration all other factors.)
2- Inflexible: Must start on (MSO) / must finish on (MFO) require an allocated date, which controls the time completion of a task.
-External factors: -Availability of Eq./Resources
-Deadlines -Contract
Milestones -Start/Finish
Dates *Origin of CPM: introduced by US industry 1958 (DuPont
Corporation/Remington-Rand)
CPM (CRITICAL PATH METHOD)INTRODUCTION
Valuable Management Tool
Unlike PERT, analyzes only the longest likely chain of activities used to complete a project.
- Earliest time a project can be completed when using the longest possible task durations.
Deterministic, not probabilistic (PERT)- Events are determined by preceding events, not by probability.
-Deterministic (Time estimates that are fairly certain.)
-Probabilistic (Estimates of times that allow for variation.)
Derives a “normal” completion time
CPM (CRITICAL PATH METHOD)INTRODUCTION (CONT.)
“Unrealistic estimates = Unrealistic Plans.” - All plans are estimates and are only as
good as the task estimates. Adding tasks = Added Time & Cost.
- If there are any additions/reductions in the overall project, the estimates must adapt to
the change. Expectation Control (Benefits)
- Time estimates (likely) - How long will it take?
- How long will it take if it needs to be done sooner?
- Cost estimates - How much will it cost?
- How much will it cost if it needs to be done sooner.
- Time and Cost if crashed
CPM (CRITICAL PATH METHOD)ANALYSIS FACTORS
Duration: The time it takes for an activity to be completed, given theplanned
amount of material, labor and equipment. Effort:The amount (not time-oriented) of work
required to finish the task. Duration may decrease by adding resources but the overall
effort required will remain constant. Scope: A specific definition of what the project
does and does not entail. This is critical to the ever- changing project environment as well as managing the expectations of not only customers, but workers.
Resources: All available means utilized for the completion of the project. Such as
equipment, employees, finances, etc.
CPM (CRITICAL PATH METHOD)ASSUMPTIONS MADE BY CPM
Key concept used by both CPM/PERT-small set of activities make up the longest
path, controlling the entire project.-these “critical” activities could be identified
and managed with the optimum level of efficiency (personnel, resources, etc.)
-Non-critical activities-Pareto Phenomenon
CPM (CRITICAL PATH METHOD)ASSUMPTIONS MADE BY CPM (CONT.)
Other Assumptions:-Each task possesses a distinct start
and finish point.-Each estimate can be mathematically
calculated.-Tasks must be able to be arranged in a
defined sequences that produces a pre-defined result.
-Resources may be re-allocated as required per needs.
-Cost & time have a direct relationship.-Time has 0 value.
CPM (CRITICAL PATH METHOD)ASSUMPTIONS MADE BY CPM (CONT.)
CPM (CRITICAL PATH METHOD)COMPUTING ALGORITHMS (AOA)
Activity-on-Arrow Diagram
Circles = Events Tail Event = Initial Event
Arrows = Tasks Head Event = Final Event
CPM (CRITICAL PATH METHOD)COMPUTING ALGORITHM (AOA)
Necessary Information:
-ES, the earliest time activity can start, assuming all preceding activities start as early as possible.
-EF, the earliest time the activity can finish.
-LS, the latest time the activity can start and not delay the project.
-LF, the latest time the activity can finish and not delay the project.
Used to Calculate:
-Expected total project duration.
-Slack time. (LS – ES or LF – EF)
-The critical path.
CPM (CRITICAL PATH METHOD)FORWARD AND BACKWARD PASS
Forward Pass:-For each path, start at the left side of the diagram and work toward the right side.
-For each beginning activity: ES = 0.
-For each activity: ES + Activity Time = EF
-For the following activity: ES = EF of preceding activity.
Backward Pass:-For each path, start at the right side of the diagram and work toward the left side.
-Use the largest EF as the LF for all ending activities.
-For each activity: LS = LF – Activity Time.
-For the preceding activity: LF = LS of following activity.
SOURCES:
http://krypton.mnsu.edu/~tony/courses/609/PERT/tech.html
krypton.mnsu.edu/~tony/courses/609/PERT/pert2.ppt