project management in astronomical instrumentation projects · project management in astronomical...

Project management in astronomical instrumentation projects

Christina Thöne (HETH/IAA)OCTOCAM PM Spain

OPTICON instrumentation schoolDARK/NBI, July 10, 2017

Project management and the role of the project manager

What is project management?

• Project management is „the application of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques to project activities to meet project requirements“.

This is accomplished through the application and integration of the project management process of initiating, planning, executing, monitoring and controlling, and closing.

• Project management makes sure the project is on time and on budget and meets requirements/scope

• Consider risks, quality of the outcome andhow to use resources

• All things are interdependent! (triple constraint)

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The Project (continued)

Because individual projects within a program are related in some way, a

change in one project may affect another project in the program. The

program manager is responsible for monitoring impacts of this nature.

Other important relationships include portfolio and portfolio management,

as well as the role of the Project Management Office, as referenced in the

PMBOK® Guide.

The project constraints, which represent the scope, cost, time, risk, quality,

and resources on a project, are key aspects of project management and are

depicted as an interrelated graphic because each facet is critical and related

to the others. In fact, changing one almost inevitably changes the others.

What is meant by each facet or factor of the project constraints?

Scope: As defined in the PMBOK® Guide, p. 440, scope is “the sum of the

products, services, and results to be provided as a project.” More

specifically, project scope is “the work that must be performed to deliver a

product, service, or result with the specified features and functions”

(PMBOK® Guide, p. 436). In other words, project scope is all of the work

that must be completed for the project.

Budget/cost: “The approved estimate for the project to any work breakdown

structure component or any schedule activity” (PMBOK® Guide, p. 440)

What Is a Program? (continued)

The Project Constraints


Project management areas:

• Integration management: Plan, execute, control. Manage changes!

• Scope management: What needs to be done? Requirements, Statement-of-work (SOW), Work breakdown structure (WBS)

• Time management: Scheduling

• Cost management: Budget

• Quality: Make sure the instrument meets requirements and expectations from the science community

• Human resources: Responsibilities, who does what?

• Communications: Make sure information is distributed correctly

• Risk management: Manage threats to your project (and opportunities)

• Procurement: Buying „stuff“ (optics, mechanics, detectors, coolers, electronics...)


Initiation Planning Implementation Closeout

Preparation

•From wants/needs to requirements•Statement of work•Authorization to proceed (contract)

Monitoring&controlling

• Monitor project performance (schedule, budget, communication, quality etc.)• Updates to documents

Plan project

• Project management plan• Work breakdown structure• Scheduling• Budget plan• Staffing and roles• Risk planning• Quality planning• Communication planning• Procurement planning

End of project

• Finalizing product and documentation• Hand over to main- tenance team• Lessons learned

What is project management?Knowledge area Initiation Planning Implementing Closeout

Integration management Project charter/contract PMP - Monitor work

- Change management Close project

Scope management RequirementsScope

- Requirements- Scope- WBS

Verify/control scope

Time management- Define+sequence activities- Estimate resources- Estimate durations- Make schedule

Control schedule

Cost management - Estimate costs- Determine budget Control budget (EVM)

Quality management Plan quality requirements Quality assurance & control

Communication management Identify stakeholders Plan communications

- Distribute information- Manage stakeholder expectations- Reports

lessons learned

Human resource management

- Define roles and HR plan- Acquire team

Develop and manage team lessons learned

Risk management- RM plan- Identify, analyze, prioritize risks- plan reponses

monitor & control risksidentify new risks lessons learned

Procurement management Plan procurement control & administer close procurement

And what is it in real life?

The role of a PM in astronomical instrumentation

• The second most important person in the project (after the PI)

• Leading the daily business and implementing the „vision“ of the PI (or telling him it‘s not possible :-) )

• Responsible for the project „getting done“

• Communication with the entire team

• Control of budget, schedule, risks, changes, procurement and contract(some of those tasks can be transfered to others)

Project Manager (lecture by C. Thöne)

•  Most important role after (before?) the PI

•  Responsible of the day to day decisions

•  Keeps schedule •  Tracks progress •  Manages cost •  Monitor WPs

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The role of a PM in different instrumentsMOSAIC team structure:

single PM team (+DPMs)

The role of a PM in different instruments

and the location at the Cassegrain focus of an 8-m UT, ! It should operate at a spectral resolution != 5000-10000, depending on the spectral band and adopted slit width, sufficient to address quantitatively a vast number of astrophysical applications while operating in a background- limited S/N regime with the effect of absorption and emission lines originating in the Earth’s atmosphere being minimized ! It shall make use of technology that can be rapidly deployed. Our fast schedule calls for commissioning X-shooter at the telescope in Q2/2008 .

Table 1 - X-shooter Consortium Structure

Institute Management Main Deliverables/ Areas of

Responsibility European Southern Observatory P.I.: S.D’Odorico

P.M.: H. Dekker Project global management and system engineering, detector systems, flexure

compensation, data flow system overview Niels Bohr Inst. for Astronomy, Physics &

Geophysics , Copenhagen University P.I. & P.M.: P.Kjaergaard Rasmussen

Backbone and associated subsystems, UVB arm, overall FEA, control electronics

GEPI Lab, Observatoire de Paris ; AstroParticule et Cosmologie Lab., Université de Paris VII

P.I.: F. Hammer P.M.:I. Guinouard

IFU, Data Reduction Software

INAF: Osservatori di Brera, Catania, Palermo & Trieste

P.I.: R.Pallavicini P.M.: F. Zerbi

Visual arm, UVB and VIS optics, instrument control software

Astronomical Inst., Univ. of Amsterdam; ASTRON; Dept. of Astronomy, Nijmegen Univ.

P.I.: L.Kaper P.M.: R. Navarro

Infrared Arm; contribution to DRS

The name X-shooter has been inspired by the instrument capability to observe in a single shot a source of unknown flux distribution and redshift. A report on the X-shooter as it stood after the Feasibility Study was presented at the 2004 SPIE Astronomical Instrumentation meeting [1]. In this paper, we recall the concept and concentrate on the new instrument developments as of the Final Design Review which took place in February 2006.

2. SCIENTIFIC DRIVERS The scientific objectives of X-shooter have been elaborated during Phase A and they are briefly recalled below:

! Spectral properties and gas kinematics of protostars ! Properties of cool white dwarfs ! The nature of neutron stars in close binary systems ! Physical processes in the atmospheres of brown dwarfs ! Properties of core-collapse supernovae; Type Ia supernovae to z =1.7 ! Gamma-ray bursts as high-energy laboratories and cosmological probes of the intergalactic medium ! The role of faint emission line galaxies in the redshift interval z = 1.6-2.6 ! Properties of high mass star formation and massive galaxies at high z ! Metal enrichment in the early universe through the study of high z absorption systems ! Tomography of the Intergalactic Medium through the observations of faint background QSOs

3. PROJECT UPDATE

3.1 Overall instrument concept Figure 1 illustrates in a schematic way the X-shooter instrument and its subsystems. The calibration lamps are located in the upper section of the instrument. Mechanical slides can insert above or at the focal plane calibration lamp mirrors, a small integral field unit [2 ] reformatting a 1.8” x 4 “ area into a slit of 0.6” x 12 “ or mirrors feeding an acquisition

Proc. of SPIE Vol. 6269 626933-2

X-shooter management structure

PI + PM for each node

The role of a PM in different instrumentsOCTOCAM management structure

One PI, PM + DPM, but responsible for different nodes

Principal Investigator A. de Ugarte Postigo, IAA-CSIC

Project Manager P. Roming, SwRI

Project(Scien,st(A.(van(der(Horst,(GWU(

Co-Principal Investigator P. Roming, SwRI

Science(Advisory(Commi;ee(

Álvaro(Álvarez?Candal,(Brazil(Rodolfo(Angeloni,(Chile(Stefano(Bagnulo,(UK(Franz(Bauer,(Chile(Amanda(Bayless,(USA(Melina(Bersten,(Argen,na(Marcelo(Borges(Fernandes,(Brazil(Tom(Broadhurst,(Spain(Nat(Butler,(USA(Brad(Cenko,(USA(Lydia(Cidale,(Argen,na(Jesus(Corral?Santana,(Chile(Peter(Curran,(Australia(Vik(Dhillon,(UK(René(Duffard,(Spain(Robert(Fesen,(USA(Gastón(Folatelli,(Argen,na(Jonathan(Fortney,(USA(Ori(Fox,(USA(Anna(Frebel,(USA(Lluís(Galbany,(Chile(Rafael(Garrido(Haba,(Spain(Daryl(Haggard,(USA(

System(Engineer(S.(Pope,(SwRI(

Deputy Project Manager C. Thöne, IAA-CSIC

Deputy(System(Engineer(R.(Killough,(SwRI(

Optics

Mechanics

Cryogenics

Detectors

Electronics

Control Software

Pipeline

Integration & Testing

FRA

CTA

L Polarimeter

(F. Snik, Leiden)

IFU (R. Content, AAO)

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Tasks of the PM throughout the project


• Contract• Statement of work• Top level requirements• Rough schedule/budget• Rough idea for rest (communications, risk etc.)• Core team defined

Phase 0 Phase A Phase B Phase C Phase D Phase E Phase F

• PMP• WBS• Schedule• Budget• Team defined• Risks• Quality planning• Communication• Procurement planning

Procurement of materials (early: optics, detectors, later the rest)

Instrument construction & testing

Design finished (optics, mechanics, cryogenics, detectors, electronics, software ...)

@ telescope or launch

Science

Feasibility study Conceptual design

Preliminary design

Critical design

Assembly&Integration

Testing&Shipping Commissioning

Initiation & Planning phase of your project

The project start: contracts

• In astronomical instrumentation there is usually a „funding agency“ issuing a request for proposal (RfP) to which a team replies ➜ initiation phase is a bit different from industry projects

• Awarded contract defines work to be done = Statement-of-Work (SOW) = scope statement

• Types of contracts:- Fixed-price contract: fixed sum awarded and all the risk is on the bidder- Cost reimbursable contract: Pay actual costs + profit/overheads- Times&materials contract: Payment for work and materials needed (with/without deductions for leave/holidays etc.), no max. amount

Project management plan (PMP)similar for SE management plan

• Summary of PM procedures:PM general approach, methods, tools

• Roles and responsibilities, key personnel

• Communication plan and reporting

• Schedule managementand project schedule

• Cost management

• Risk management and risk register

• WBS and WBS dictionary

• Other specific things for the project

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Project Planning

Project Planning

In a project’s life cycle, planning is most important and extensive planning phase performed before Implementation.

The processes that a project manager must master include planning the project scope through the use of a work breakdown structure (WBS), scheduling the project, planning project costs, and planning for the use of project resources. The project manager also should plan for risk, procurement planning, communications planning, and quality planning. The key output of all these planning processes is the overall project management plan.

Core Project Team

One of the first steps the project manager should take to optimize the effectiveness of project planning is selecting a core group of key people, referred to as the project management team in the PMBOK® Guide, each of whom offers an expertise or specialty crucial to the project. For example, in the case of an IT project, the core team may consist of the project manager, a software engineer, a hardware engineer, and a finances expert. The number of people and specialties will vary with the project.

Project Planning Overview

Core Project Team Overview

4 3

Requirements document

• Map science cases to instrument requirements (usually science is the driver for instrument requirements

• Have to take into account a lot of constraints and requirements the instrument has to fulfill outside the ones tracked down from science

• Output: long list of very detailed requirements (e.g. OCTOCAM has xxx)be sure to capture everything!

Science cases Top level requirements

Telescope/Spacecraft requirements & contstraints

Instrument requirements

document

Environment/shipping etc.

Work breakdown structure (WBS)

• What is a WBS?

• Identifies all and only the work necessary to accomplish the objectives

• Forces and helps with schedule&budgetplanning

• Clarifies responsibilities and measuressuccess of the project

• WBS and Work packages (WP):In industry the lowest level of the WBSis a „work package“In instrumentation a WP is a higher level in the WBS and sometimes comprises more than one point

• WBS dictionary = detail of each WBS itemcan be mapped to SOW

• WBS ➜ skills needed ➜ effort, cost, schedule

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Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) (continued)

1.1.2.2 Identify required changes 1.1.3 Develop alternative approaches 1.1.3.1 Identify alternative approaches 1.1.3.2 Analyze alternative approaches 1.1.4 Develop system requirements

1.2 Develop specification 1.2.1 Develop preliminary software specifications 1.2.2 Develop detailed software specifications 1.2.3 Develop preliminary hardware specifications

Graphic Format

The indented format offers several advantages: It is easy to include project details; it edits and loads into major software tools such as Microsoft® Project. It lends itself to printed reports and computerized monitoring, is logical to follow, and allows one to easily see the grouping of tasks. In addition, it facilitates tracing low-level issues by work package number back to broader levels and their responsible managers, and it supports easy reference to specific work items.

Effective use of this numbering system requires that you follow certain rules. Because a published WBS is distributed widely, there is no telling who might have it and reference to it. Therefore, a WBS number should never be changed, deleted, or reused, and you should always add a new number for new work.

WBS Models (continued)

Estimates

• Resource allocation: Cost = Effort/Productivity * labour cost Time = Effort/Productivity/AvailabilityPeople are not 100% productive and not always available!Typical estimates are 75% (but that is rarely stated in instrumentation projects)

• Estimates based on past projects, extrapolations and up-/downscaling of known costs/times

• Levels of estimates and accuracyDepends on time and info on the project

Estimates

• Resource allocation: Cost = Effort/Productivity * labour cost Time = Effort/Productivity/AvailabilityPeople are not 100% productive and not always available!Typical estimates are 75% (but that is rarely stated in instrumentation projects)

• Estimates based on past projects, extrapolations and up-/downscaling of known costs/times

• Levels of estimates and accuracyDepends on time and info on the project

• PERT:O=optimistic, P=pessimistic, ML=most likely estimate

PERT = (O + 4*ML + P)/6σ = (P-O)/6σ (path) = √(σ12 + σ12 + σ12)

WBS ➜ Scheduling - network diagrams

• Network diagram gives overview of relations between tasks (derived from WPs in the WBS)

• Forward path: start + duration of each taskStart of project -> end of project

• Backward path: end - duration of each taskDetermine float

• Critical path is the path with zero floatNear critical path has little float

• Most common: start-finishOther relations are e.g. finish-finish or start-start

• Lag time: additional timebetween end of predecessor and startof successor task

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Key Steps in Developing Schedules (continued)

Some key points need to be made about the fundamentals of network development and what elements of the WBS are needed to construct the network.

As mentioned previously, the tasks in the network are derived from the work packages of the WBS. Work packages are emphasized because the network must be based on the schedule activities derived from those work packages. The network cannot be based on summary levels. Identifying specific or potential problem areas in the project (that is, risk points and overallocated resources) would not be possible if the network were to contain only higher-level summary activities.

It cannot be overemphasized that all of the schedule activities supporting WBS work packages must be included in the network, because they must be accounted for in the schedule. Omitting even one task from the network could change the overall schedule duration, estimated costs, and resource allocation commitments.

The WBS is not a schedule, but it is the basis for it. On the other hand, the network is a schedule, but it is used primarily to identify key scheduling information that ultimately is used in “user-friendly” schedule tools.

Network Scheduling (continued)

Scheduling - Tools & Schedule reduction

• Gantt chart: most common tool for displaying the scheduleFocuses on durations

• Milestone chart: focuses on achievements

• Ways to speed up schedule- Fast-tracking (parallelizing tasks)- Crashing (reducing durations of tasks on the critical path)- Resource leveling (reduce resources needed at a given time)

More tomorrow!

• Budget for each WBS itemRemember: Cost = Effort/Productivity * labour cost

• Direct (spending for project/resources) and indirect costs (overheads/administration, benefits - if at all)Public sector: salary + social security (= labour rates) + overheads as % of total budgetPrivate: labour rate might already include (some) overheads + profit

• „Real year dollar“ or projected value?account for inflation!

• Reserves (management & contingency)

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Estimating Cost and Determining the Budget (continued)

During project execution, these graphs can be used in conjunction with earned-value analysis and can thereby show the project manager how much money has been spent at a certain point in time compared to what was budgeted.

Cumulative Cost Curve and Precedence Diagram

Cumulative cost curves are useful briefing tools because most people can easily read the graph. It can also serve as an excellent way of summarizing progress, since both planned and actual cost curves can be tracked on the same graph for comparison purposes. However, the project manager must be careful to ensure that people do not misinterpret the cumulative curve due to lack of understanding of the underlying details. For example, when actual costs are plotted against planned costs, they may see variances between the two curves and yet not understand the actual events that underlie them. For example, if an unexpected opportunity arises to make a major purchase ahead of schedule in order to get a significant discount, it will look like an overspend, when in actuality the project is saving money.

Cumulative Cost Curve (continued)

WBS ➜ Schedule ➜ Costs

• Budget for each WBS itemRemember: Cost = Effort/Productivity * labour cost

• Direct (spending for project/resources) and indirect costs (overheads/administration, benefits - if at all)Public sector: salary + social security (= labour rates) + overheads as % of total budgetPrivate: labour rate might already include (some) overheads + profit

• „Real year dollar“ or projected value?account for inflation!

• Reserves (management & contingency)

WBS ➜ Schedule ➜ Costs

Detailed project estimate

WBS #

Task Effort Duration Cost Comment

1. Product selection & characteristics

5d 2 weeks

1.1 Characteristics

1.1.1 Panel size 1x2h 0.5d 30€

1.1.2 Water tank 1x2h 0.5d 30€

1.1.3 Orientation of panels

2x2h 1d 60€

1.1.4 Connection to house water system

1x3h 1d 45€

1.2 Offers from companies

1.2.1 Characteristics 4h 1d 60€ Company offers take a week to get delivered1.2.2 Pricing & delivery

time1h 5d 15€

1.3 Comparison of offers and final decision

1.3.1 Collection of offers 2x2h 0.5d 60€

1.3.2 Meeting with the landlord

3x2h 0.5d 100€

1.3.3 Order panels+tank --- --- 1200€

1.3.4 Order electronics/pump/sensors

--- --- 450€

2. Preparations for installation

2d 1 week

2.1 Preparation of the house

2.1.1 Inspection of the roof

3x2h 1d 50€

• Contingency reserve: Reserve for planned risks

• Management reserve: Reserve for unplanned risks

• Most reserves get used some time during the project around mid project for purchase increaseslater in case of delays

• Total budget =BAC + reserves (+ profit)

• Plan conservatively!Most projects have delays

Costs & Reserves

Costs - monitoring cost performance

• Earned value management (EVM): work done at a given time in $PV (planned value) or BCWS = value of work that should have been doneAC (actual cost) or ACWPEV (earned value) or BCWP = value of work that has been donePC (percent complete)

• Cost variance (CV) = EV-ACSchedule variance (SV) = EV-PV

• Performance indices:CPI = EV/ACSPI = EV/PVCPI >/< 1: under/over budgetSPI >/<1: ahead/behind schedule

EAC (estimate at completion) = BAC/CPIETC (estimate to complete) = EAC - AC

Costs - monitoring cost performance

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Applying EVM: An Example

The best way to understand the EVM calculations and analysis techniques is by studying an example, such as the graphic below.

This is an uncomplicated project that has three tasks and will run for nine months. But this simple project is sufficient for us to demonstrate how the EVM calculations and analysis techniques are used.

Additional information about the example project is in the table below:

Status through Month 3

Task Budget at Completion

Percent Complete

EV Planned Value

Actual Cost

A 1,000 50% 500 520 485 B 1,500 20% 300 260 310 C 800 40% 320 150 380 TOTALS 3,300 1,120 930 1,175

EVM Example

Time in Months

Task A: $1,000

Task C: $800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Task B: $1,500

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Applying EVM: An Example

The best way to understand the EVM calculations and analysis techniques is by studying an example, such as the graphic below.

This is an uncomplicated project that has three tasks and will run for nine months. But this simple project is sufficient for us to demonstrate how the EVM calculations and analysis techniques are used.

Additional information about the example project is in the table below:

Status through Month 3

Task Budget at Completion

Percent Complete

EV Planned Value

Actual Cost

A 1,000 50% 500 520 485 B 1,500 20% 300 260 310 C 800 40% 320 150 380 TOTALS 3,300 1,120 930 1,175

EVM Example

Time in Months

Task A: $1,000

Task C: $800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Task B: $1,500

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Applying EVM: An Example (continued)

It is critical that all three numbers are for the same period in time. In this

case, the data is through month 3. This date often is referred to as the

reporting date or data date.

The EV is the percentage of the work that actually has been completed. It

is shown by the shaded area in the graphic and recorded in the fourth

column of the table. For example, EV is calculated for task A as follows:

xEV 50% $1000 $500= =

With this basic data, the EV analysis can be calculated.

EVM Analysis: Formulas and Their Interpretation

CV and SV are the most-used and most-useful project performance

measures and are also the simplest to calculate and easiest to understand.

Both are numbers calculated by comparing EV with planned value or

actual cost. CV is, as previously defined, the difference between the

value of the work actually completed and the amount of money actually

spent for the work. CV is calculated by the formula:

Metric Formula Calculation Result

Cost variance CV = EV – AC 1,120 – 1,175 = (55)

The negative value indicates that the project is over budget. If it were a

positive value, the project would be under budget; and if it were zero,

the project would be exactly on budget. As a general rule in EVM,

negative numbers are considered “bad” and positive “good.” Zero

variance is considered impossible.

EVM Example (continued)

Variance Measurements

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EVM Analysis: Formulas and Their Interpretation (continued)

Note that negative numbers are shown in parentheses. This is good business practice because a small “–“ is easy to overlook. Monetary chapter designators also are omitted. When reviewing large amounts of data the designators only clutter the tables and reports. A single note on the report or one symbol at the top of the column indicating the monetary units used generally is sufficient. Many organizations report in order of magnitude figures such as thousands or millions. This is indicated by notation at the top the report. Common examples are ($000) or (£M).

Schedule variance is the difference between the value of the work completed (EV) and the amount of work planned to be done (PV). SV is calculated as follows:


Schedule variance SV = EV – PV 1,120 – 930 = 190

Thus at the time of the data date or reporting date, the project is over budget. But it is ahead of schedule because a positive SV indicates being ahead.

The numeric value of a variance is useful only in comparison to the value of the WBS element in question. An index is used to give additional meaning to the variance and compare the performance between different WBS elements. Senior management (particularly financial managers) generally can relate better to an index that shows performance relative to actual expenditures or planned progress. As a result, the cost and schedule performance indexes are especially good for communicating progress to such stakeholders.

The indexes are calculated using the same numbers used for the variances. The CPI is calculated by dividing the value of the work actually performed by the actual cost of the work.


Cost performance

index

CPI = EV ÷ AC 1,120 ÷ 1,175 = 0.95

Variance Measurements (continued)

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Note that negative numbers are shown in parentheses. This is good business practice because a small “–“ is easy to overlook. Monetary chapter designators also are omitted. When reviewing large amounts of data the designators only clutter the tables and reports. A single note on the report or one symbol at the top of the column indicating the monetary units used generally is sufficient. Many organizations report in order of magnitude figures such as thousands or millions. This is indicated by notation at the top the report. Common examples are ($000) or (£M).

Schedule variance is the difference between the value of the work completed (EV) and the amount of work planned to be done (PV). SV is calculated as follows:


Schedule variance SV = EV – PV 1,120 – 930 = 190

Thus at the time of the data date or reporting date, the project is over budget. But it is ahead of schedule because a positive SV indicates being ahead.

The numeric value of a variance is useful only in comparison to the value of the WBS element in question. An index is used to give additional meaning to the variance and compare the performance between different WBS elements. Senior management (particularly financial managers) generally can relate better to an index that shows performance relative to actual expenditures or planned progress. As a result, the cost and schedule performance indexes are especially good for communicating progress to such stakeholders.

The indexes are calculated using the same numbers used for the variances. The CPI is calculated by dividing the value of the work actually performed by the actual cost of the work.


Cost performance

index

CPI = EV ÷ AC 1,120 ÷ 1,175 = 0.95

Variance Measurements (continued)

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This number means that every dollar spent on the work is generating only 9 cents value in return. A CPI of less than 1.00 indicates that more is being spent than is being returned in value; a CPI greater than 1.00 signifies that the project is worth more than is being spent; and a CPI of 1.00 means that the project is exactly on budget.

CPI is a practical forecasting tool because it can be plotted and trends can be determined from the data. Many PMs develop a control chart layout for the CPI data. They use it as a controlling mechanism by maintaining the CPI curve within an agreed-upon upper and lower control limit, much like quality control charts with their upper and lower standard deviation lines.

The SPI is calculated by dividing the value of the work actually performed by the planned value for the work.

This index value shows how well the project is performing against the plan. If SPI is greater than 1.00, the project is ahead of schedule; if less than 1.00, the project is behind schedule; if equal to 1.00, the project is on schedule. So, again, these indexes show that although the project is over budget, it is ahead of schedule.

Like indexes, percentages allow comparison without regard to the value of the figures and are useful in comparing between projects. As such, they may be particularly valuable to upper management and the customer.

PC is calculated by dividing the value of the actual work performed (EV) by the project BAC. Because the percent complete is known at the work package, this calculation generally is performed at the total project or summary levels for the project. For the example project:

Performance Indexes


Percent complete ÷ BAC 1,120 ÷ 3,300 = 34%


Schedule performance index

1,120 ÷ 930 = 1.2 SPI = EV÷ PV

= EV

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The percent spent is calculated by dividing the AC by the BAC. For the example project—


Percent spent = AC ÷ BAC 1,175 ÷ 3,300 = 36% Comparing what has been completed with the amount spent for the effort provides a quick comparison of the magnitude of any variance. It is far easier to recover if the percent spent is only 2 percent higher than it is if the gap is 10 percent.

The project team and senior management need three key completion estimates:

d Estimate to complete (ETC): The estimate of how much money is needed to operate the project from today until the end of the project. The estimate to complete or ETC is particularly important to the controller or other financial officers in the organization because they will use that number to plan future cash flows. Moreover, that number includes the potential budget increase and, therefore, it becomes the basis for replanning the budget, if required.

The ETC is calculated by estimating the cost of completing the remaining work for each work package. The ETC can also be calculated by the following formula:

The ETC lets management and finance know the funds needed to complete the project.

d Estimate at completion (EAC): The current best estimate for any element of the WBS. When the project begins, the EAC is usually the same as the BAC because the BAC is based on the task cost estimates. However, as the project continues, project performance, changes in assumptions, or other factors may result in a change to the EAC. The most common method of calculating the EAC is to add the actual cost expended to date (AC) to the estimate to complete (ETC) the task. The project EAC, like the original estimate for the project, can only be done at the work package level and rolled up to intermediate WBS levels and finally to the total project.

Percent Complete and Percent Spent

Completion Estimates

Metric Formula Calculation ResultETC

BAC – EV 3,300 – 1,120 = 2,180

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Variance at completion: The difference between the original estimate and the new estimate at completion of the project ($3,474). In our example, this variance at completion or VAC is calculated by—

Calculations are fine and necessary. But what do they all mean? How can they be portrayed so that these various elements in schedule and cost control can be viewed relative to one another? The following graphic depicts each of the key measures defined above.

ACPV

EV

Time

Today

Contract Budget BaseEAC

CBB

ETCBAC

Reserve

CV

SV

VAC

ETC

The diagram also indicates one additional financial term: the contract budget base or CBB. As you can see, CBB is the BAC plus reserve.

Completion Estimates (continued)


Variance at Completion for Task B

VAC = BAC – EAC 1,500 – 1,510 = (10)

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Using the AC for task B from the example data table and an ETC

calculated by ETC = BAC – EV, or 1500 – 300, the current

estimate for the remaining work of $1,200 is—

For tasks that have not started, AC= 0; so the ETC is the same as

the EAC.

When variances are considered atypical of future performance, a

good method for calculating EAC is EAC = AC + (BAC – EV), or

310 + (1,500 – 300) = 1,510.

Another method of calculating EAC is based on the formula

EAC = BAC ÷ CPI. This formula often is used by practicing PMs

because it provides a quick, easy, and relatively accurate result,

especially when there are small variances between the planned

and actual budget and schedule.

But a more accurate calculation of EAC when current variances

are seen as typical future variances is made by—


EAC for

Task B

EAC = AC + [(BAC – EV) ÷ CPI 310 + [(1,500 –300) ÷ 0.96] = 1,560

Over forecast CPIs of less than 1.00 will result in the EAC being

larger than the BAC and vice versa.

All calculations in this section have been rounded to the nearest

dollar. Although the calculation could be carried out to the

penny, that would indicate a precision beyond the reality of the

estimates.



EAC for task B EAC = AC + ETC 310 + 1,200 = 1,510

© ESI 85


Variance at completion: The difference between the original estimate and the new estimate at completion of the project ($3,474). In our example, this variance at completion or VAC is calculated by—

Calculations are fine and necessary. But what do they all mean? How can they be portrayed so that these various elements in schedule and cost control can be viewed relative to one another? The following graphic depicts each of the key measures defined above.

ACPV

EV

Time

Today

Contract Budget BaseEAC

CBB

ETCBAC

Reserve

CV

SV

VAC

ETC

The diagram also indicates one additional financial term: the contract budget base or CBB. As you can see, CBB is the BAC plus reserve.



Variance at Completion for Task B

VAC = BAC – EAC 1,500 – 1,510 = (10)

Risks and risk management - the basics

• A risk is an „uncertain event or conditionthat, if it occurs, has a positive (!) or negative effect on the project‘s objectives

• Continuous risk management:

„Risk management plan“how is RM done and monitoreddetermine factors and their meaning➜ PMP

Determine the risks Impact+ likelihood Rank the risks➜ PMP

Mitigation plan ➜ PMP

During project:constant reevaluationof risks and changes

Risk management - from identification to execution

• Possible basis to look for risks („input“)- WBS- Project documents (e.g. SOW)- Previous projects- Ask people with experience

• Risk management process:

Input

Select tool

Make categories

List of risks

Assign impact&likelihood

List of prioritized risks

During project

Identify new risks

Reevaluate existing risks

Risk management - identification tools

• Can be made by individualsor in a group or a combinationInvolve all the team!

• Not all is brainstorming!(but is often used)

• Individual/project tools:Expert interviews, analogy, assumptions analysis, checklists, prototyping

• Group tools:(Delphi), Crawford slip, Nominal group

• Different methods at different times of the project might be appropriate

• In the end, put your risks in categories (if applicable)e.g. management risks, technical risks, ....

More tomorrow!

Risk management - Analysis

• Qualitative or quantitative analysisQualitative = high/medium/low Quantitative = concrete number

• Analyze likelihood: statistical methods: Monte Carlo, PERTexpert judgements, past projects

• Analyze impact (on schedule, budget, scope)

• Usually impact is more importantthan likelihoodFactors depend on project and organization!

OCTOCAM Cf definitions

Southwest Research Institute® 22794-PMP-01 Rev 0 Chg 0 OCTOCAM Project Management Plan Page 29

Table 12-1. Consequence Function (Cf) Risk Scorecard Consequence Cost Impact Schedule Impact Technical or Science Impact

5 Unacceptable

Exceeds project reserves

Affects primary and backup delivery to telescope

Total loss of instrument or failure to achieve all "key requirements" in AURA SOW

4 Major

Exceeds segment reserves

Affects primary delivery date, but not backup delivery date

Major loss of instrument capability or failure to achieve some "key requirements" in AURA SOW

3 Significant

Within segment reserves

Affects critical path, but not primary delivery date

Significant loss of instrument capability or failure to achieve some IRD science requirements

2 Moderate

Within allocated segment reserves

Reduces slack to the lesser of one month or 50% of the remaining schedule

Moderate loss of instrument capability needing requirement definition or design/implementation work-around

1 Minimal

No impact to cost reserves

Reduces slack, but sill more than 1 month, or 50% of remaining schedule

Loss of instrument capability within planned margin or redundancy or science objectives achieved via work-around

Table 12-2. Likelihood Function (Lf) Risk Scorecard Likelihood: What is the probability that the situation or circumstance will happen?

5 Very High

Very likely to occur. Project's progress cannot prevent this event, no alternate approaches or processes are available. Requires immediate management attention/

4 High

Highly likely to occur. Project's progress cannot prevent this event, but a different approach or process might. Requires management's attention.

3 Moderate Likely to occur. Project's progress may prevent this event, but additional actions will be required

2 Low Not likely to occur. Project's progress is usually sufficient to prevent this type of event.

1 Very Low Very Unlikely. Project's progress is sufficient to prevent this event.

12.2.3. Risk Prioritization

The higher the risk is in prioritization, the more attention it will receive from the project. Each risk will be assigned an approach dependent on its exposure grade, mitigation status, etc. Possible approaches include Mitigate, Watch, Research, and Accept. Items classified as Green or Yellow as shown in Figure 12-2 may require mitigation. For these items, alternative dispositions may be identified and/or trade studies conducted to determine the mitigation required. Future decision milestones will be identified to enable effective tracking of those risks for which immediate action is deemed unnecessary. Items classified as Red are considered primary risk drivers. For these items, risk mitigation plans shall be developed. Red risks shall be assessed for impact to budget reserves and shall be tracked to closure.

12.3. Risk Buy Down/Trend Report

For each MPSR, a Risk Buy Down/Trend report (example provided in Figure 12-3) will be included that will include the trends over the last period for each yellow and red risk.

• Expected value = Impact (cost) x ProbabilityBest/worst case scenarios

• Decision tree:Calculate total EV for a certain outcome ➜ drives decision

Risk management - Analysis

Risk management - Prioritizing

RISK PROBABILITY IMPACT EV RANK

1 0.1 50000 5000 3

2 0.5 70000 35000 1

3 0.7 10000 7000 2

EV ranking

Comparative risk ranking:1) Compare pares of risks and vote for which you think is more important2) Sum total votes for each risk and rank them

Here: E > A > C > B > D

Risk management - response

• Reaction to threats: Accept (low ranked risks) Mitigate (reduce impact or probability - most commonly used) Transfer (to someone else) Avoid (eliminate risk reason)

• Reaction to opportunities (rarely happen in instrumentation):Accept, enhance, exploit, share

• Impact on schedule: check for floats!

• Consider mutual influence of risks ➜• Plan contingency reserve:

- A risk event has an impact of 50% and would have an impact of 30,000 - A contingency plan costs 5,000 to reduce the risk to 10,000- Original EV = 50x30,000 = 15,000 Contingency EV = 50x(5,000+10,000)=7,500

© ESI 73

Response Analysis Matrix

Risks and responses can interact in strange ways. Project managers need

to analyze this interaction. The easiest way to do this is to create a matrix

of risks and risk responses with the risks listed by row in priority order

from top to bottom and the response strategies listed across the columns.

An example of a simple matrix is provided here for a shopping center

developer’s project.

For each combination of a risk and a risk response, the matrix is marked

with a plus (+) or minus (-) sign to indicate a positive or negative effect

on risk exposure. As the sample matrix shows, one response strategy

may actually solve more than one risk problem. Requiring performance

and payment bonds addresses the risks of contractor default and non-

payment of subcontractors, and providing additional soil borings

minimizes the chances of encountering unexpected subsurface

conditions and also reduces the likelihood of contractor claims.

On the other hand, the response to one risk may exacerbate another, as

in the case of shortening the contract time. Although this strategy is

designed to maximize chances of completing the project in time for the

holiday shopping season, it also increases the probability of contractor

claims by making the schedule more difficult to meet. And of course,

one risk may be affected in different ways by two different strategies as

Overview

Responses: Risks

Builder’s

Risk

Insurance

Payment and

Performance

Bonds

Perform

Additional

Soil Borings

Reduce

Contract

Time

Fire or natural

disaster

+

Prime

contractor

default

+

Liens from

unpaid

subcontractors

+

Unexpected

subsurface site

conditions

+

Open after

holiday season

+

Claims by

contractor for

additional time

and money

+

_

Overview

Risk management - execute, evaluate, document

• Reassess risks frequently:Did their impact or likelihood change?

• Are there new risks?➜ Repeat risk identification&analysis processes throughout the project!➜ Usually done by a RM board

• Look for early warnings that a risk might occur!

Risks and risk management - examples

Technical risk• Description: Detectors, esp. the IR have a very long lead time (time from order to

delivery, those things do not come by Amazon Prime ;-) )• Consequence: There is a possibility that if the delivery is delayed, there

may be an impact on project schedule• Impact: 4 (in case of delay serious impact on schedule• Likelihood: 3 (Delays in delivery of such detectors are frequent)• Trigger date = at PDR• Mitigation plan: Order after PDR

Detectors are ordered as the firstcomponents of the instrument to ensure delivery on time for instrument assembly

!

! ! Page!194!of!205!!

! ! OCTOCAM!Feasibility!Study!Report!

4.5.7.!OCTOCAM!Risks!The!top!risks!identified!for!the!OCTOCAM!instrument,!including!safety,!schedule,!cost,! science! performance,! and! technical! resources,! are! provided! in! Figure! 156!and!Table!55.!

!Figure!156!N!OCTOCAM!project!risk!matrix.!

ID! Description! Consequence! Cf! Lf! Mitigation!3! Mass!Constraints:!Allowed!mass!is!

no!greater!than!2000!kg.!Instruments!over!mass!can’t!be!mounted!to!telescope.!

5! 1! Lighter!Structural!Materials:!Although!unlikely!that!it!will!be!needed,!lighter!materials!for!the!structure!would!save!considerable!weight.!

8! Long9lead!Delivery!for!Optical!Blanks:!Delivery!for!some!blanks,!especially!YAseries!in!Ohara,!is!particularly!long.!Price!and!availability!at!time!of!ordering!can!also!be!variable.!

Impact!to!project!level!schedule!and!cost.!

3! 3! Early!Optical!CDR:!Hold!an!early!Optical!CDR!to!validate!the!materials!for!an!earlier!ordering.!

9! COTS!Controller!Functionality!Not!As!Expected:!The!COTS!visible!controller!doesn’t!provide!the!expected!functionality!based!on!vendor!documentation,!or!configuring!it!for!OCTOCAM!will!be!more!difficult!than!planned.!

Drives!software!subsystem!cost!and!schedule.!

1! 4! Leverage!Prior!Instrument!Efforts:!Leverage!the!knowledge!gained!from!prior!instrument!efforts.!

10! Computationally!Intensive!Operations:!As!the!Instrument!Software!requirements!are!refined,!more!computationally!intensive!operations!will!be!required!than!currently!anticipated.!

Could!require!more!expensive!processing!power!and!generate!more!heat.!

1! 2! Control!Room!(CR)!PC!Architecture:!The!software!(S/W)!architecture!has!been!designed!such!that!computationally!intensive!operations!are!performed!on!the!CR!PC.!Any!issues!of!this!nature!can!be!resolved!utilizing!a!higherAperformance!PC!and/or!additional!buffering!on!CR!PC.!

11! Insufficient!GIAPI!Interface!Functionality:!The!existing!functionality!and/or!performance!

Requires!further!development.!

2! 1! Additional!CR!PC!S/W!Development:!Functional!deficiencies!mitigated!by!

Risks and risk management - examples

Management risk• Description: The USD - EUR rate can increase significantly over the time of the project• Consequence: There is a possibility that change could cause an increase in the project‘s

budget spending• Impact: 3 (moderate impact on budget)• Likelihood: 3 (likely based on past changes in the conversion rate)• Mitigation plan: Budget reserves.

Major parts are purchased in USD, all main parts are procured through the US partners. European partners have an insuranceBudget reserves can accomodate a significant change in exchange rate.

!

! ! Page!194!of!205!!

! ! OCTOCAM!Feasibility!Study!Report!

4.5.7.!OCTOCAM!Risks!The!top!risks!identified!for!the!OCTOCAM!instrument,!including!safety,!schedule,!cost,! science! performance,! and! technical! resources,! are! provided! in! Figure! 156!and!Table!55.!

!Figure!156!N!OCTOCAM!project!risk!matrix.!

ID! Description! Consequence! Cf! Lf! Mitigation!3! Mass!Constraints:!Allowed!mass!is!

no!greater!than!2000!kg.!Instruments!over!mass!can’t!be!mounted!to!telescope.!

5! 1! Lighter!Structural!Materials:!Although!unlikely!that!it!will!be!needed,!lighter!materials!for!the!structure!would!save!considerable!weight.!

8! Long9lead!Delivery!for!Optical!Blanks:!Delivery!for!some!blanks,!especially!YAseries!in!Ohara,!is!particularly!long.!Price!and!availability!at!time!of!ordering!can!also!be!variable.!

Impact!to!project!level!schedule!and!cost.!

3! 3! Early!Optical!CDR:!Hold!an!early!Optical!CDR!to!validate!the!materials!for!an!earlier!ordering.!

9! COTS!Controller!Functionality!Not!As!Expected:!The!COTS!visible!controller!doesn’t!provide!the!expected!functionality!based!on!vendor!documentation,!or!configuring!it!for!OCTOCAM!will!be!more!difficult!than!planned.!

Drives!software!subsystem!cost!and!schedule.!

1! 4! Leverage!Prior!Instrument!Efforts:!Leverage!the!knowledge!gained!from!prior!instrument!efforts.!

10! Computationally!Intensive!Operations:!As!the!Instrument!Software!requirements!are!refined,!more!computationally!intensive!operations!will!be!required!than!currently!anticipated.!

Could!require!more!expensive!processing!power!and!generate!more!heat.!

1! 2! Control!Room!(CR)!PC!Architecture:!The!software!(S/W)!architecture!has!been!designed!such!that!computationally!intensive!operations!are!performed!on!the!CR!PC.!Any!issues!of!this!nature!can!be!resolved!utilizing!a!higherAperformance!PC!and/or!additional!buffering!on!CR!PC.!

11! Insufficient!GIAPI!Interface!Functionality:!The!existing!functionality!and/or!performance!

Requires!further!development.!

2! 1! Additional!CR!PC!S/W!Development:!Functional!deficiencies!mitigated!by!

Communications & Documentation

• Important part of any project!

• Most instrumentation projects consist of „virtual“ teams➜ Documentation even more important!

• Many tools are available nowadays, not all work for allOnline PM systems very useful (but not only for virtual teams)Do not underestimate the need of face-to-face meetings (every now and then)

• Understand and communicate with people from very different backgrounds, cultures, timezones and past experiences.

• Get a degree in psychology (joking... :-) !)

• PM is a lot of (boring?) document writing (often in MS except group 1 )

• Main documents:PMP, SEMP, Science, ConOps, Design Documents (refined in each stage), phase plans, End-phase reports, Manuals (instrument, parts, pipeline, software...)

• Regular reporting to „funding agency“ (whoever that is):Weekly/monthly/quaterly reports on progress/schedule/budget/requirements

• Meeting notes➜ especially but not only for virtual teams

• Often cumbersome but very helpful for • stage documents (what the hell did we do

a year ago??)• lessons learned at the end of the project• ...and your next project! :-)

Communications & Documentation

Communications - basics for team leadership

Traits of a successful PM

Basics for leading people

Communications - leading individuals

Each individual needs different guidance and leadership!

There are a million personal trait schemes built on another million psychological theories

None has the perfect answer (but most of them are $$!)

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Strength deploymentinventory model

Communications - leading a team

Communication with the team• Share information asap and with everyone• Send out agendas before meetings and notes afterwards• Have clear schedules, milestones and deadlines• Make sure everyone feels part of the team• Can help to establish clear communication channels and hierarchies• Face-to-face meetings whenever possible and in budget, frequent virtual meetings• Adapt (to) different communication strageties (email, chat, phone/video call etc.). Everyone

has their preferred communication, not always easy

Stages of team building: aligns more or less with project stages


Communications - conflicts

• Quick to arise in our virtual and diverse teams

• Personal conflicts can quickly have an impact on the project itself➜ Try to maintain at least a professional relationship to keep the project working even if you hate that person

• Resolution and reaction is different for each individual and situationThere are no absolute rules, other than common sense (e.g. try to understand the other‘s motivations etc.)➜ Here is where the degree in psychology would help ;-)

Project executing and monitoring

Project monitoring - basics

• You think the work is mostly done, but it‘s only starting!The better you planned, the smoother it will work now

• Monitor everything you have planned for:scope, budget, schedule, risk, requirements etc.

• EVM, continous risk management, changes to baseline etc.

• Decide where to cut in case of technical problems or when science requirements cannot be met

• Decide what to prioritize of the triple constraint

• Continue with careful documentation of everything!

© ESI 5

The Project (continued)

Because individual projects within a program are related in some way, a

change in one project may affect another project in the program. The

program manager is responsible for monitoring impacts of this nature.

Other important relationships include portfolio and portfolio management,

as well as the role of the Project Management Office, as referenced in the

PMBOK® Guide.

The project constraints, which represent the scope, cost, time, risk, quality,

and resources on a project, are key aspects of project management and are

depicted as an interrelated graphic because each facet is critical and related

to the others. In fact, changing one almost inevitably changes the others.

What is meant by each facet or factor of the project constraints?

Scope: As defined in the PMBOK® Guide, p. 440, scope is “the sum of the

products, services, and results to be provided as a project.” More

specifically, project scope is “the work that must be performed to deliver a

product, service, or result with the specified features and functions”

(PMBOK® Guide, p. 436). In other words, project scope is all of the work

that must be completed for the project.

Budget/cost: “The approved estimate for the project to any work breakdown

structure component or any schedule activity” (PMBOK® Guide, p. 440)

What Is a Program? (continued)

The Project Constraints

Project monitoring - what to do

• Monitor project performance ➜ for authority/funding agency

• Monitor/reevaluate/rethink risks ➜ need to be approved

• Control changes in requirements/contract/technical issues. ➜ need to be approvedConfiguration management (CM) = established process to track changes (e.g. for documents)

• Manage quality („Quality Assurance“, QA)Will the instrument do what it needs to do?

• Monitor schedule and schedule reserves ➜ often important as schedule delays drive costs

• Monitor budget ➜ often most crucial item as budgets are limited

• Develop your team and communications: Replacements? Where are problems? What works and what not?

Project completion and closeout (and the aftermath)

Project closeout

• Pre-shipping acceptance -> shipping -> installation + commissioning

• Commissioning is still part of the project, the work is only done when the instrument can be handed over to the customer (observatory and science community)

• Celebrate!

• All documents have to be final now!Manuals, end of project report etc.

• Lessons learned can be useful to document

• For you it‘s the end of the project, for the scientific community it‘s just the start! Science verification, early science (often special proposal calls) and finally regular observing runsBetter to be part of that community...

• Often parts of the team keep being involved in the instrument and they are the ones knowing it best

The instrument has been delivered successfully, now what?

PM in industry

Science community

PM without fixed contract:Project ended = funding

ended