project niagara - phase 2 feasibility study · project niagara canada’s music garden phase 2...

Project Niagara Canada’s Music Garden

PHASE 2

FEASIBILITY STUDY

Commissioned by: The Ontario Ministry of Culture and the Ontario Ministry of Tourism and Recreation, Falls Management Corporation, the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation, the Niagara Economic Development Corporation and the National Arts Centre and Toronto

Symphony Orchestra.

July 2008

(with revisions from December 2008)

Project Niagara International Music Festival – Phase 2 Study – July 2008

Phase 2 Feasibility Study – Table of Contents

The Project Niagara Vision: Wednesday June 8, 2012

3

Executive Summary 5

1. Concept Introduction and Rationale 8

2. Program Offering 10

3A. Site Assessment and Selection – Part A (Site Selection) 14

3B. Site Assessment and Selection – Part B (Characteristics of Selected Site) 18

4. Market Assessment and Attendance Projection 24

5. Physical Design and Capital Costs 32

6. Staffing and Operating Plan 50

7. Governance 53

8. Operating Costs and Revenues / Financial Analysis 55

9. Economic Impact Analysis 63

10. Fundraising Plan 69

11. Project Timetable 72

12. Conclusion 74


The Project Niagara Vision

Niagara-on-the-Lake, Wednesday, June 8, 2012

Maybe you are traveling from New York State with your wife and two children on a summer holiday; maybe you are from Calgary on a family vacation; maybe you live in Toronto and have decided to head out of town for the day; maybe you and your husband are visiting Canada from Germany for the first time; maybe you are extending your visit in the Niagara Region, the kids loved the Falls, you were thoroughly entertained by your yearly visit to the Shaw Festival, you’ve taken in the beauty of the region and its oenological attractions through bicycle and vineyard tours – and now you are ready for something else.

You park your car and get on a shuttle bus. There is a headset at your seat with various channels. You choose channel 1. Your kids choose channel 2. Your experience is about to begin.

You are heading toward an eco-cultural experience like no other. Your headset tells you about the music you are going to hear, why it was chosen and how it relates to the overall musical theme for this season, who wrote it and why, who will be performing it, and what makes it great. It will explain how the recommendations for food and wine on site were made with the music in mind. The produce is all local. Everything from the appetizer through to the wine and dessert peaches was grown in the region. The chefs come from the culinary institute. It is a showcase for Niagara and for Canada.

You have come for a concert, but you have purposefully arrived early.

You are invited to explore the grounds. They are emblematic of the riches of the region and of the country. The reflection off the water, the sunlight through the trees, the brilliance and fragrance of the flowers – it is a feast for the eyes and the soul. The gardens are the result of annual commissions to horticulturalists to reflect the music.

The music garden is different – it is a permanent feature, expanded and developed each year.

Eventually, your focus is pulled to the concert stage and amphitheatre. It is an iconic piece of Canadian architecture that is completely in harmony with its surroundings of old growth forest by the lake. It is also deceptive in its natural simplicity and beauty. It is the most technologically advanced amphitheatre in existence. The best of Canadian design and technology has been incorporated. Visualization technology for the 2,000 people inside the amphitheatre and the up to 8,000 attendees on the surrounding lawns, advanced sound capability … this is a triumph of technology in the service of art. It too has achieved fame as an award-winning design, and is renowned for its application of enhancement acoustics.

At the entrance is a busker’s stage. You are invited to participate. The kids have the option of meeting up with an “MD” – a “music director” that will guide a group of as many as 15


children, grouped by age and experience, through a hands-on workshop – and parting with their parents for the day exploring music, heritage, and the site.

You head to the food kiosk to pick up your pre-ordered gourmet picnic lunch and wine – or to choose from the ready-to-go items on offer. You stake a claim on your preferred piece of ground, and let the beauty and serene nature of the sight wash over you as you await the beginning of the concert.

A tradition at Project Niagara – the pre-concert choral stretch. All in attendance are strongly encouraged to take part. After participating in a rousing gospel chorus the audience catches its breath, quiets, and awaits the beginning of the concert.

Today the Toronto Symphony Orchestra and the National Arts Centre Orchestra are performing Mahler’s Eighth Symphony (“Symphony of a Thousand”). From your audio guide you learned that Mahler visited this region and saw the Falls. The Orchestras are under the baton of Montreal’s Yannick Nézet-Séguin, the lighting and ambient video projection staged by Robert Lepage. The audience, consisting of Canadian, American and some overseas visitors, is gripped by the music, and rewarded by the experience.

The concert ends. It was truly wondrous. After thunderous applause and enthusiastic shouts of “Encore!” and “Bravo!”, Maestro Tania Miller, of Victoria, takes the stage and invites the parents to gather close to the stage to hear the kids from music camp appear on stage with their MDs and coaches. This is an inspirational experience of another kind. Of a magical kind. The kind that instills in a child a lifelong love of music and a dawning appreciation for its complexities, its meaning, its humanizing force.

The concert is done. Families are reunited. They mill around, bask in a final view of the scene, gather their things and make their way out. Until the next time.

… and that next time may be later in the season. Because it is 2012 you have heard that Project Niagara has adopted the 200th anniversary of the War of 1812 as its theme. You can’t wait to see what artistry and creativity the team at Project Niagara will bring to the anniversary and the music that it will inspire.

*************************************************************


Executive Summary

A festival featuring two of North America’s finest orchestras, with appearances by other superb orchestras; a festival of internationally renowned soloists; a festival which, in addition to performing the greatest works of the classical and “pops” repertoire, is complemented by the world’s coolest and most engaging jazz, popular, blues, world music, opera, musical theatre and dance stars.

Serving a market of 100 million people within a day’s drive, this thrilling festival is located in one of the newest and most diverse wine regions on the continent, a region also known as the “produce garden of Ontario,” where fine food arrives fresh from the farm to the table (or the picnic blanket).

This festival occurs on the leeward shore of one of the Great Lakes, the silhouette of Toronto in the distance and a mere bicycle ride from one of the world’s Seven Great Wonders, and North America’s only festival devoted to the works of George Bernard Shaw. The festival will unfold in a delightfully landscaped park, a “music garden” nestled beside a Carolinian forest of untouched beauty, with an amphitheatre of unsurpassed acoustical excellence, on a site that, precisely 200 years before, witnessed the fiery defining moments in the birth of a nation. All of this suggests that the word “festival” is too meager to embody the full scope of this bold and important initiative.

Contained in this Phase 2 Feasibility Study are the results of a year and a half of work to examine the viability of Project Niagara (PN). The process has been challenging, exciting and ultimately rewarding as the analysis of the concept revealed increasing indications that Project Niagara was a very strong concept, located in the right place, at the right time. The following conclusions are drawn from the attached document and provide some indication of the parameters measured in the Feasibility Study:

• Niagara Region: The Niagara Region has the potential to become the next great cultural tourism destination. PN, and an emphasis on joint marketing and storytelling, are what will take it over the top. The necessary ingredients are all there: the excellence of the Shaw Festival and its loyal international audience; the burgeoning wine industry and the winding Wine Route that takes you through breathtaking vineyards and farmland; the colourful history of the region from the War of 1812, Sir Isaac Brock and Tecumseh, the Underground Railroad, the history of Niagara Falls, to the building of the Welland Canal; excellent post-secondary institutions that support, among other things, education and culture; and finally, the quality of food and accommodations, of golf courses and casinos, of the Bruce Trail and bicycle routes.

• Market: Almost 100 million people will live within a day’s drive of PN by year 2012. This is the largest

population concentration within eight hours of any centre in Canada. • Site: After a review of established criteria related to unique beauty, size, and ambient noise, one site

emerged as the overwhelming choice for an international music festival: the Parks Canada land on the north-western side of Niagara-on-the-Lake. Discussions of a partnership that would see PN and Parks Canada develop the 268-acre site into a centre of excellence that will be a place of pride for all Canadians are currently underway.

• Programming: PN will offer a curated season of world-class programming, highlighting the message that

this international music festival is unique and uniquely Canadian. • Audience: PN has the potential to achieve an audience of more than 260,000 people over a 50 concert

summer season. That is an average of 5,000 people per concert. • Ticket Prices: PN has forecast an average ticket price of $30, with tickets for fixed seats in the

amphitheatre at a higher price point, and lawn seating priced somewhat lower.


• Breakeven Costs and Revenues: Under an attendance model of “Consistent Growth from Year 1”, a breakeven scenario is possible by Year 3, where operating costs of $19 million equal operating revenues of $19 million.

• Staff ing: The operating plan projects a staff of 33 full time managerial and administrative officers, plus

hundreds of part-time and seasonal jobs on the site: ushers, food services, grounds maintenance, security, etc.

• Capital Costs: Based on a program plan developed by Cleveland-based Westlake Reed Leskowsky (WRL)

and a design by Kuwabara Payne Mckenna Blumberg Architects (KPMB) capital costs are estimated at $76.5 million – this breaks down as $37 million for all buildings on site, $18 million in site preparation, $11 million in landscaping, and $10 million for technical equipment.

• Sources of Funding: The Offord Group’s research supports the finding that $25.5 million would be a

reasonable amount of money to raise through sponsorship and private donation. PN will be requesting that the Federal and Provincial governments each match the private funds raised dollar for dollar in order to achieve the target of $76.5 million for the capital project.

• Economic Impact - Construction: The construction phase of PN will generate a one time impact of $106

million in various types of additional economic activity in the Province of Ontario. Included in this figure are the creation of close to 500 full time equivalent jobs

• Economic Impact – Operations: By Year 5, the operation of PN will generate about $93 million in various

types of additional economic activity in the Province of Ontario. This is a year on year impact that includes the creation of 707 full time equivalent jobs.

• Start up Costs: PN will require funding of $3 million a year for 4 years leading up to the first year that PN

is in operation. $1.5 million in base funding from each of the Federal and Provincial Governments is required to fund the start up.

• Ownership and Governance: PN will be an independent national cultural institution with its own Board of

Directors. TSO and NAC representatives will sit on this board as ex-officio members.

• To be determined as PN moves forward:

• Transportation: Transportation infrastructure issues in the town and Region are not an insurmountable obstacle to Project Niagara’s success. The Region of Niagara Public Works with help from the staff of Niagara-on-the-Lake have estimated that $5.6 million of direct road works are required in order to make the Lakeshore Road site accessible and safe. PN has committed to working with the Region and the Town to help find the resources for these upgrades. In addition PN is committed to working with all stakeholders to identify inter-Regional and intra-Regional transportation solutions that will allow Niagara to take its place as the premiere international gateway and destination.

• Sewage Lagoons: The Region of Niagara has two sewage lagoons on the Parks Canada land

chosen as the festival site. The lagoons are nearing capacity. They sometimes spread an unpleasant odour to Garrison Village, and the public on or around Lakeshore Road. These sewage lagoons would need to be shut down for PN to move forward. The Regional Department of Public Works has commissioned an Environmental Assessment as the first step in possibly decommissioning the lagoons and moving the treatment of sewage in time for PN. PN has committed to working with the Region and the Town to find the resources to carry out the required work.

• Environment Protection: PN awaits Parks Canada’s Environmental Assessment Report on the

potential impact of the festival on flora and fauna in order to guide its activities on site.


******************************************************************

What began as the stunning realization that we, as Canadians, had missed the opportunity to promote our

own and bring the world’s attention to our young country’s musical maturity, has blossomed into a strategy for transformation and growth for the Region of Niagara, the Province of Ontario, and Canada as a whole.


1. Concept Introduction and Rationale

This section of the Study outlines the background and rationale for Project Niagara. That is followed by a discussion of the context for this Phase 2 Study and acknowledgement of the participation of the various parties that have made this investigation possible.

1.1 Project Niagara

Project Niagara was born out of a sense of pride. Pride in Canada and pride in Canada’s artists and orchestras. A scan of the New York Times spring supplement of major international music festivals reveals that there is nothing listed for Canada. With world class orchestras, renowned talent, access to the market, and the unique geography to create wonderful venues in which to showcase the music, Canada could and should play host to a major outdoor summer music festival.

1.2 Background to the Concept

Peter Herrndorf, President and C.E.O. of the National Arts Centre, and Andrew R. Shaw, President and C.E.O. of the Toronto Symphony Orchestra, are the catalysts for Project Niagara, an international summer music festival. They agreed that it could be a major cultural event, on the scale of the Tanglewood Festival (near Boston), or Ravinia (outside Chicago), or Blossom (near Cleveland). Like these other festivals, while the core offering would be orchestral music (both serious and pops), there would also be the best of other musical genres on offer as well: jazz, blues, folk, world, and popular.

The two orchestras approached the Ontario Ministries of Tourism and Culture respectively to fund an initial investigation into the viability of the concept for a major international music festival. Both Ministries agreed, and an initial Concept Articulation phase began in the autumn of 2005.

The Niagara Region was the most promising locale from the beginning. There are many compelling advantages to Niagara that are ideally compatible with this enterprise. They include the built-in brand identity of ‘Niagara’; the dense catchment area including the major markets of Toronto and Buffalo; the border location; the immediate availability of excellent wine and culinary product, and the attractiveness of the wineries to a culture or heritage enthusiast; the existence of other complementary cultural activities (the Shaw Festival, the Niagara International Chamber Music Festival, and reasonable proximity to the Stratford Shakespeare Festival); the support base of accommodation and other tourist facilities; the potential for dramatic settings given the natural beauty of the area; and the proximity of institutions of higher learning to play a synergistic role in the development and implementation of the concept.

Fundamental to the genesis of Project Niagara is the fact that Ontario tourism has fallen off significantly since 2002 and that a major new cultural attraction would be important in bringing high-end tourists to Ontario. Currently, almost 70% of tourism spending in Canada is domestic, and yet the overall image of Ontario as an “ideal travel destination” has declined to a satisfaction rating in 2006 of only 5.2 out of 10. Issues as diverse as SARS, the war on international terrorism, the tightening of border security, rising gasoline prices, inadequate highway infrastructures, and of course the instability of the American dollar and economy have an impact on whether Americans will travel to Ontario. The Niagara Economic Development Corporation is preparing to promote a unique “brand” for Niagara that allows the region to better market itself at home and internationally. PN could provide an important anchor to this new branding.

The fundamental conclusion of the Phase 1 Concept Articulation Study, presented on June 30, 2006, was that Project Niagara has merit. Specifically:

• PN is a new and different cultural tourism attractor in a region in need of a new major anchor site. • It fits perfectly with the cultural and agricultural/culinary infrastructure of Niagara. • It fits with Niagara’s developing heritage tourism market. • It has received great support from many individuals and organizations across the region. • It is of interest to the participating orchestras. • It has potential for break even (sustainable) operation. • It will create economic benefit. • It has the potential to attract the interest of major sponsors


The Ministries agreed to provide further funding for a Phase 2 Feasibility Study to rigorously test all of the assumptions. The Ministries also requested that additional funders be engaged in the Phase 2 work to show that the concept held interest across a broader audience.

The Falls Management Corporation, which manages two of the major casino/hotels in Niagara Falls, responded to the request, as did the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation. Both institutions saw the potential for regional economic development inherent in the concept. The Niagara Economic Development Corporation also came on board specifically to fund and work with PN on a survey and study of the possible sites within the Niagara Region that would be appropriate for the concept of an international music festival. Finally the National Arts Centre and the Toronto Symphony Orchestra also participated in the resourcing of the Phase 2 work.

An “Interim Board” was put in place to monitor the progress of the Phase 2 work, and to be the final arbiters of whether Project Niagara is a viable proposal. The Interim Board is made up of three members of the Boards’ of Directors’ of the Toronto Symphony and the National Arts Centre, as well as the presidents of each organization. Regional interests and concerns are represented by four members of the Niagara community.

In Phase 2, the primary goal was to determine the feasibility of Project Niagara. Over the past year and a half, the following has been accomplished:

• The results of Phase 1 - Concept Articulation have been communicated to stakeholders in the region, and the Province, and to the Government of Canada, and feedback was secured for Phase 2.

• Site-selection research was undertaken with the Niagara Economic Development Corporation in order to draw up a short list of potential properties and identify a preferred site.

• A concept for the site, amphitheatre, and other buildings was developed with distinguished facility planners, Westlake Reed Leskowsky (WRL) of Cleveland, and architects Kuwabara Payne McKenna Blumberg (KPMB), acoustical engineers Aercoustics, cost consultants Curran McCabe Ravindran Ross, and landscape architects Phillips, Farevaag, Smallenberg.

• Additional market penetration and marketing strategy was developed or tested by Scott Thornley + Company, a Toronto-based company, Strategic Moves, an Ottawa based arts marketing consultancy, as well as the marketing directors of the TSO, the NAC, the Shaw Festival, and the Stratford Shakespeare Festival.

• Cost/revenue analysis was refined and cross referenced with existing international music festival models. • Fundraising potential was tested with the help of Nicholas Offord, the principal of The Offord Group, a leading

Toronto consultancy. • An economic impact analysis using the Province’s TREIM model was conducted and reviewed with the

Niagara Economic Development Corporation. • In January of 2008, the Honourable John Baird, Minister of the Environment, and the Honourable Rob

Nicholson, Minister of Justice, made a joint announcement that Parks Canada was supportive of the National Arts Centre and the Toronto Symphony Orchestra’s feasibility study into the possibility of using Parks Canada land in Niagara-on-the-Lake (NOTL) for an international music festival.

• In January of 2008, the NOTL Town Council gave unanimous approval to a motion granting support in principle for PN, and in February the Regional Council, under chairman Peter Partington, approved a similar motion.

The Interim Board’s assessment of this material will be presented to the full Boards of the TSO and the NAC. The response of all three Boards will be reported to the Ministries of Culture and Tourism when we present the final Feasibility Study to them in July 2008 and subsequently to the Government of Canada.


2. Program Offering

This section of the Study outlines the program offering for Project Niagara. It discusses the programming philosophy and vision for the festival, the types of concerts envisaged, the length of the operating season, and concessions available on site. This program offering has been developed by programming staff at both the Toronto Symphony Orchestra and the National Arts Centre, and reflects in their view a reasonable and feasible schedule of events to offer to the public.

Key Findings and Conclusions

• The programming philosophy and vision is to create a world class international music festival that is unique and uniquely Canadian.

• The season will run from June through September and will feature 50 performances. • A curatorial approach will be taken to the entire season with an eye to the best in the world, and to the natural and

cultural setting of the festival itself.

2.1 Programming Philosophy and Vision

In its inaugural season, Project Niagara must establish itself and perform on a par with the best international music festivals in the world.

In today’s crowded marketplace with so many activities vying for the audiences’ time, attention and dollars, a “start small and humble and grow slowly” strategy is not a viable option. It is also not a viable option given the costs inherent in mounting first class orchestral performances. Luminato provides a recent and relevant demonstration of the importance of hitting the mark in the first season – one could say the new mantra is to begin as you intend to proceed. Project Niagara must mirror that approach.

Tanglewood (summer home to the Boston Symphony Orchestra in the Berkshires), Ravinia (summer home to the Chicago Symphony Orchestra in Highland Park), Blossom (summer home to the Cleveland Symphony Orchestra), the Salzburg Festival, the Glyndebourne Festival, and the Hollywood Bowl are all destinations outside of Canada that are models in their own right for what PN will be.

Where the existing festivals differ from PN is in their fundamental concept and settings. PN is first and foremost a destination for world class performance, but its setting and context make it both unique and uniquely Canadian. PN is nestled into protected park land, owned by Parks Canada. PN and Parks Canada are intent on establishing a partnership on the festival site that may include the creation by Parks Canada of a national centre for the promotion of Canadian heritage. This combination of an international music festival and an important heritage centre will make this site a centre of national excellence and a major cultural attraction.

The food, the wine, the Shaw Festival, the flora and fauna, the horticulture on site, the historical setting, and the atmosphere are the best of what Canada has to offer. This makes PN a national cultural destination that will inform audience members and visitors of the value Canadians place on history and cultural heritage, the place of the natural world in Canada, the importance of this land and its produce, and how all of these things together make Canada the strong and vibrant country that it is today.

The musical programming showcases Canada’s international stature with the best of Canadian musicians playing the most cherished classical compositions and the best international musicians playing in a uniquely Canadian context.


2.2 Operating Season

In its initial operating years PN will operate one venue – an outdoor amphitheatre. The season will run from the beginning of June to the end of September, roughly 4 months or 17 weeks. In 2017, a second capital campaign is envisioned for the construction of a rehearsal/recital/lecture hall which would extend the season, add variety to the cultural offering, and increase the number of performances.

2.3 Programming

In its inaugural season PN will play host to a season of 50 concerts. A strong curatorial hand will be in evidence in the programming chosen for each season in order to provide a series of events that will attract visitors from North America and the world. Quality and clarity of vision in programming will drive the summer seasons. The Music Director and his/her team will have the NACO and the TSO, touring orchestras, and the best of variety programming as their base ingredients.

2.4 Themes and Storytelling

A key to the success of the festival, and to its success as a cultural tourism attractor, is the degree to which its curatorial approach takes in both the natural setting and the cultural setting of Niagara. That means using beautiful music to tell stories – telling stories about the region, about the role and history of music going back to the military bands of the 18th century, about history itself, and about life in Canada and the world today. Once again, it will be unique, and uniquely Canadian.

• Iconic classical repertoire with Canadian resonance: Year 1 could feature the music of Beethoven, whose major symphonies were composed during the period of the War of 1812, and serve as a reminder of the international context in which the history of Niagara, as Canada’s first capital, can be situated. Tchaikovsky’s famous 1812 Overture also serves this purpose. Year 2 might feature Mahler, who visited the Niagara region and is reported to have said upon seeing the Falls, “Enlich! Fortissimo!” (“Finally! Fortissimo!). Brahms and Dvorak also figure into this theme.

• Military bands. Some of the first European music heard in Canada was played by regimental bands. The strength of the Commanding Officer was often reflected in the size and quality of his band. And these bands didn’t just play marches, they were well versed in classical music and played for official occasions and for formal afternoon and evening entertainment. In fact during the Battle of Fort George in 1813, fought on the grounds now being considered for PN, the regimental band lost its instruments. PN provides a wonderful way to tell the story and to bring history full circle with the creation of Canada’s Music Garden.

• Underground railroad. Niagara played a big role in the Underground Railroad that brought African-Americans out of slavery and into Canada. Robert Nathaniel Dett’s parents arrived in Canada from the US and Dett was born in Niagara Falls in 1882. He became an internationally renowned composer, and in particular he is remembered for his work in combining the music of the European Romantics with the American spiritual. The music of Robert Nathaniel Dett is still performed today and could, for example, become the basis of a PN Choral Festival.

• First Nations, Aboriginal focus. The history and music of Canadian and US First Nations would provide a stunning focus for a series of concerts and events. Tecumseh, who came north in response to his objections to the land deals his people were making with the Europeans, is as important an historic figure as General Brock. Aboriginal peoples fought alongside the British in the War of 1812, and their heritage and musical traditions offer many different possibilities from drumming, storytelling, to ceremonies and performances.

• Wine. The World’s Natural Wonders. The building of the Welland Canal. The possibilities are endless.

There are opportunities to collaborate on artistic projects with Shaw Festival, the Niagara International Chamber Music Festival, the Niagara Symphony, and Art Park. The context is Canadian, the quality and the performers are on a par with the best internationally.


2.5 National Arts Centre Orchestra and Toronto Symphony Orchestra - 20 Symphonic and Pops

The NACO and the TSO will be in residence at PN for three to four weeks each in the summer, overlapping for one week. They will offer a total of 18-20 concerts over the 7 to 8 weeks. The breakdown of those 20 concerts will look something like the following:

• Symphonic: 9-10 concerts will provide the best from the great symphonic repertoire with soloists of the first rank such as Yo Yo Ma, Pinchas Zukerman, Itzhak Perlman, or Anne-Sophie Mutter. Canadian stars such as James Ehnes, and Ben Heppner will be featured.

• Pops: 9-10 concerts will feature lighter classical fare, pops, broadway, and family concerts. An example might be a version of “Peter and the Wolf” narrated by Martin Short. Stars in the classical world like Michael Schade and Measha Brueggergosman, may take the stage in popular repertoire.

• Combined week: There will be one week each summer in which both orchestras will be in residence allowing for the production of 3 unusual large scale concerts featuring such works as Schoenberg’s Gurrelieder or Mahler’s Symphony of a Thousand.

• Original Concepts: At least two concerts each summer will be unique offerings – rare classical treats, new compositions, or new and innovative collaborations commissioned by the festival incorporating artists from other disciplines such as Robert Lepage, Robert Carsen, Francois Girard, Atom Egoyan, Michael Ondaajte, and Alanis Obomsawin.

2.6 Guest Orchestras – 5 Touring Orchestras/Ensembles

Featuring the best in the world is a consistent objective of PN. A further 5 concerts each summer would be devoted to touring orchestras, soloists or ensembles. The New York Philharmonic, the Kirov, the Montreal Symphony Orchestra, Gustavo Dudamel and the Simon Bolivar Youth Orchestra, Cecilia Bartoli and the Venetian Touring Orchestra, the Buffalo Philharmonic, the Boston Pops are examples.

2.7 Other Genres - 25 Programming Events

The remaining 25 programming events would be a combination of jazz, pop, world, choral music, musical theatre in concert, dance, and storytelling. Such artists as Michel Bublé, James Taylor, Bruce Cockburn, k.d. lang, Stevie Wonder, Stuart Mclean, Garrison Keillor, La La La Human Steps, the Frankfurt Ballet, Diana Krall, the Vienna Boys Choir, the Harlem Boys Choir, Tafelmusik, le College Vocal de Laval, Aretha Franklin, and Celine Dion would appear providing international quality and stature across a range of genres.

2.8 Scheduling

A 50 concert season over a 17 week period assumes roughly 3 concerts a week. But one could also imagine a few groupings of programming in specific genres around holiday periods. These might include:

• A concentration of big orchestral events over the period from June 28 (anniversary of the outbreak of the War of 1812), to Canada Day on July 1, through U.S. Independence Day on July 4, with a focus on the music of war and independence.

• Jazz Festival style programming over the August municipal holiday weekend.

• An Opus to Opera over the Labour Day long weekend.

2.9 Education

In the inaugural year the Education program will be made up of Master Classes for young artists, conducted in an offsite facility, as well as hands-on music experiences for young audiences visiting PN led by facilitator MDs (Musical Directors – musicians or university aged music students). The latter will take place during afternoon concerts and will


consist of children being invited to step away from the mainstage concert experience to live their own participatory concert experience. Ideally this program would be developed in conjunction with Parks Canada and would also fold in the elements of the history of music in the Niagara region.

2.10 Rehearsal and accommodations

A season of 50 concerts allows rehearsal to take place on the Performance Pavilion stage, the preferred scenario for most conductors who appreciate rehearsing in the same acoustic environment in which their musicians will perform. As there is no separate rehearsal hall in this phase of the campus for PN, should an indoor venue be required, there have been discussions about using the new Performing Arts Facility currently being planned by the city of St. Catharines and Brock University. They are amenable to this connection with PN.

The orchestras and artists will be housed in rented accommodation in the region. At this point there is no plan to build private residences on site to accommodate artists. As accommodation in NOTL is both limited and expensive, bookings will be made across the region to secure adequate and appropriate accommodation for festival artists. Some TSO players may choose to stay in Toronto and commute for their rehearsals and concerts.

2.11 Food and Wine

Another important facet of the PN experience is the picnic itself. Visitors to PN will be welcome to bring their own food and beverage. Onsite, and available for advance order, will be ready made picnic hampers and wines by the glass. The food featured at PN will be slow-food, grown within the agricultural region around the site, and prepared and delivered to the venue each day. PN will celebrate the abundance of the region and the culinary experience will be as special as the musical experience.


3A. Site Assessment and Selection – Part A (Site Selection)

This section is divided into two parts. Part A reviews the site selection exercise which culminated in the selection of the Parks Canada site in Niagara-on-the-Lake. Part B presents the assessment of the specific site selected.

The staff of the Niagara Economic Development Corporation helped with the identification of sites for consideration, and participated in initial on-site assessment and evaluation, particularly in terms of availability and dimensions.

Key Findings and Conclusions • Nine sites were identified and assessed; five sites were short-listed and assessed in further detail • The Parks Canada site in Niagara-on-the-Lake was identified as being clearly ‘head and shoulders’ above the others

for the following reasons: it is the most naturally beautiful site - beautifully treed with ‘old-growth’ Carolinian forest, views across blue water to the skyline of Toronto, floating magically above the horizon; it is the quietest site – removed from any significant man-made sources of noise with the only potential problems being the roar of heavy surf on days of inclement weather; it has an incredible heritage connection - as a landing and battle site in the War of 1812, it saw a significant moment in Canadian history; it is close to the essential amenities (restaurants, accommodation, shopping of NOTL, St. Catharines, Niagara Falls and the surrounding communities); and it presents a major opportunity to work with Parks Canada on a visible and public rehabilitation project, converting a neglected site, the majority of which is contaminated with sewage and military ordinance, and has been closed to the public for close to 100 years, into a major park and a source of pride for all Canadians.

3A.1 Re-Cap: Reason for Initial Selection of Niagara Region

As was indicated in the Phase 1 Concept Articulation Study, the Niagara Region generally was the logical choice for a major event of this type for a number of reasons:

• Its pre-existing cultural, historical and educational base (e.g., the Shaw Festival, Fort George, Brock University, Niagara College, proximity to the Stratford Shakespeare Festival).

• Its accessibility with respect to major markets, and its proximity to the international border (by 2012 it is predicted

that there will be close to 100 million people within a day’s drive). • The existence of support services such as accommodations, restaurants, shopping, and ancillary activities such

as casinos, golf, and sailing.

• The excellence of the surrounding base of culinary and wine-related activities (vital to the kind of audience likely

to be attracted to a world-class event of this sort). • The potential for breathtaking scenic views from the site chosen for the event (i.e., the Escarpment, the peninsula

setting and the proximity to one of the world’s most important bodies of water). • It is already a major tourism destination, with a world-renowned Niagara Falls brand identity.

In the first phase of the work (called ‘Concept Articulation’) various aspects of the viability of the basic idea were tested. These included describing the basic concept, the type of programming, personnel, and staff involved. (Much of this was based upon detailed review of similar international music festivals elsewhere, as well as discussions with senior management at the two orchestras.) The first phase also examined the market that might be attracted to the facility, the resulting revenues that could be generated, and the overall costs of mounting the festival. The study also examined the requirements of a site for the enterprise, and identified the fact that there did appear to be several site locations throughout the region where the festival would be possible (without actually selecting any specific one as “the” location for the event). Throughout the first phase of the work, various stakeholders in the Region were informed of the project, and their reactions and suggestions sought. Almost without exception, these individuals and organizations were


enthusiastically supportive of the overall concept. However, detailed site identification and selection was not an element in the Phase 1 work. Articulating the criteria was, however, clearly an element of Phase 1.

3A. 2 Reasons that Site Selection was Not an Element in Phase One

In major development projects where a large-scale and highly desirable investment might be made in any one of a number of locations, there tends to be competition between municipalities and other jurisdictions in which the investment might take place. This rivalry can sometimes take centre stage, and, in some cases run the risk of derailing the project before it has a chance to get off the ground. There can be speculation and there can also be premature neighbourhood involvement. Recognizing in Phase 1 that there was some chance of this occurring, and that the basic concept itself had not yet been tested, it was decided that ‘site selection’ per se would not be a key element of the work, beyond the initial obvious selection of the Niagara Region as the location in which the festival would be held.

At the same time, however, part of the initial testing of the feasibility of the concept would have to demonstrate that there was at least one such site where the festival could take place. Accordingly, the site selection exercise in Phase 1 was restricted to developing an initial list of potential sites where the concept could be developed; i.e., that met the general preconditions identified as essential for a workable site.

Phase 1 determined criteria for the ‘essential’ and ‘desirable’ characteristics of a site:

• sufficient size: minimum 50 acres, preferably 100+ (essential) • availability at low or no cost (essential) • insulation from surrounding noise (essential) • striking location:

- affording a panoramic view of a large body of water (e.g., Lake Ontario, Niagara River, or both) -(essential)

- having view of the Niagara Escarpment as a unique and defining signature geographical aspect of the Region (highly desirable)

- having extensive existing wooded areas on site (desirable) - having some topographic variation (desirable)

• insulation from views of other distracting activities (desirable) • centrality / accessibility within Region (desirable) • public transit availability (desirable)

Working with the Niagara Economic Development Corporation (NEDC), the economic development agency for the Region, it was determined that there were a number of sites throughout the Region that met these criteria. However, for the reasons specified above, these sites were not specifically identified or assessed at that time.

3A.3 Site Selection

One of the first tasks in Phase 2 was to re-visit the sites identified in Phase 1, with a view to short-listing and eventually selecting, a preferred site. This too was undertaken with the assistance of the NEDC. To summarize, nine candidate sites were identified and assessed:

1. Grimsby Bench at Ridge Road, in Grimsby 2. Parks Canada site, in Niagara-on-the-Lake 3. Woodend Conservation Area, in Niagara-on-the-Lake 4. Queenston Heights, in Niagara-on-the-Lake 5. Lafarge Quarry, in Niagara-on-the-Lake 6. Knightsbridge Park, Niagara Falls 7. Canal Lands (behind Seaway Mall), Welland 8. Lakeview Site, Port Colborne 9. Fort Erie Racetrack, Fort Erie


The initial site visits and assessments eliminated four sites from consideration: the Grimsby Bench (#1, above), the Canal Lands behind Seaway Mall (#7), the Lakeview site (#8), and the Fort Erie Racetrack (#9). The remaining 5 sites were assessed in greater detail through visits by the architectural team and acoustic monitoring.

During this process, it became increasingly clear that one of the sites – the Parks Canada land in Niagara-on-the-Lake – was far and away the preferred site. Not only did it rank considerably above the others on all of the criteria outlined above, but it also had the added ‘advantage’ of offering a tangible opportunity to rehabilitate and make accessible a contaminated site closed to the public. Turning the Parks Canada site into a major public asset by hosting an international music festival would clearly b e a higher and better use for the site.

To summarize the rationale for the selection of the Parks Canada site:

• Of all the sites, it presents the most stunning setting – which was determined to be a highly desirable criterion for site selection.

• It is one of the largest sites – affording ample opportunity to develop the facilities required for the international music festival in a spacious and open context.

• It is the quietest site – quite removed from any significant man-made sources of noise with the only potential problems being the roar of heavy surf on days of inclement weather.

• It is beautifully treed, affording interesting landscape opportunities with old growth forest, and water features.

• As a landing and battle site in the War of 1812, it has a tangible association with significant Canadian history.

• It is close to essential amenities (restaurants, accommodation, shopping) in the nearby old town of Niagara-on-the-Lake as well as having convenient proximity to Region roads and infrastructure.

• It presents a major opportunity for a visible and very public rehabilitation project, converting a contaminated property into a major public asset which is a ‘good news’ story in many ways.


As mentioned, there are significant issues and concerns with the property: proximity to neighbouring residential areas (and related concerns about noise), traffic and transportation management, and the cost of relocating sewage lagoons currently on the property. These considerations are addressed in the next section.


3B. Site Assessment and Selection – Part B (Selected Site Assessment)

This section of the Study describes the selected site in detail and outlines the various activities required to secure the location for the use of Project Niagara. As well, it describes some of the potential hurdles that will need to be overcome, and the initiatives in place for doing so.

The information contained herein was developed through extensive consultation with Parks Canada staff, Town of Niagara-on-the-Lake representatives, and staff and politicians at the Region of Niagara.

Key Findings and Conclusions • The Parks Canada land is both bucolic and physically appropriate to accommodate an international music festival. • Parks Canada is willing to work with PN in a partnership arrangement in which the two entities would manage the

property with Parks Canada retaining ownership. • The site is currently home to a public park, two Regional sewage lagoons, and a former Department of National

Defense (DND) rifle range and training ground. Cleaning the sewage lagoons and the DND land are essential for PN to use the land.

• DND has begun its clean up of the land.

• The sewage lagoons are at 85% of capacity and would reach capacity and require action within the next few years regardless of PN. In the absence of PN, two solutions have emerged. A low cost solution would see the Region enlarge the lagoons. A higher cost proposal would have the region close them completely, diverting the sewage to another location. An Environmental Assessment is currently underway.

• The Town and the Region have identified transportation infrastructure projects that will need to be undertaken should Project Niagara move forward. At present $5.6 million to widen the Lakeshore Rd. in front of the site is the only direct infrastructure project identified. PN is committed to working with all stakeholders to identify and address inter-regional and intra-regional transportation issues that must be addressed if Niagara is to take its place as the premiere international gateway and destination.

• Residents of NOTL have raised specific concerns about noise from the festival ground, traffic and parking congestion, environmental issues, and Regional infrastructure costs attributed to PN which could result in higher taxes. PN will work with the Town, Region, the Provincial, and the Federal government to address these concerns.

3B.1 Site Description

The most striking thing about the Parks Canada site at the western end of the old town of Niagara-on-the-Lake is its remarkable natural beauty. This 268-acre site’s ancient forests, lakeshore, creeks, ponds, meadows, and topography make it a destination of unparalleled splendor. Beyond its aesthetic appeal, it also meets a number of essential criteria including minimal ambient noise level, large enough acreage to accommodate the prospective program of Project Niagara, and proximity to other regional attractions (the Shaw Festival, the wineries, the biking trail, and Lake Ontario), as well as accommodations in NOTL, St. Catharines, and Niagara Falls.

In the following sections a site tour is laid out. For the purpose of the discussion, the site has been divided into three distinct zones. The first zone starts at the west end of the site and contains Niagara Shores Park. The central zone, where PN will be situated, is made up of old growth Carolinian forest and two Regional sewage lagoons. The third zone is the eastern-most section which is the former Department of National Defense rifle range and the site of the Battle of Fort George in the War of 1812.


The Parks Canada site is bordered by Lakeshore Road to the South, Lake Ontario to the North, the neighborhood of Chautauqua to the East, and 4-Mile Creek

3B.2 Niagara Shores Park

The Niagara Shores Park is situated at the west end of the site. The Park, which is approximately 10 acres, is owned by Parks Canada but the Town of Niagara-on-the-Lake is responsible for its upkeep. There is no signage to mark the Park on Lakeshore Road and it is under-utilized except by dog walkers during the day and young revelers during evening hours. Half of the site contains lawns, the entrance drive, and a parking area; the balance of the Park contains trees of various ages, including some dramatic, mature maples that are more than 100 years old. The western edge of the Park is bordered by a swampy pond that is filled by the waters of Four Mile Creek and drains into Lake Ontario. The shore frontage consists of a bluff ranging in height from approximately four to six metres above the beach.

3B.3 Carolinian Forest

East of the Niagara Shores Park is a rare example of virgin Carolinian forest. Carolinian forest is a name given to a life zone in eastern North America characterized by a predominance of deciduous or broad-leaf trees. Various species of ash, white pine, birch, chestnut, hickory, oak and walnut are found here. Towering 30 metres overhead, the forest is thick and lush, a rare example of the forest that covered much of this region at one time. Foxes, deer, raccoons, and other forest animals and birds are known to inhabit this wooded area. Parks Canada will perform an environmental assessment to evaluate the potential impact of the festival on this flora and fauna and PN will work with Parks Canada deal with these matters appropriately.

This area has been formally closed to the public for more than 50 years.


From pristine farmland to battlefield in the War of 1812 to military training and regional sewage lagoons

3B.4 Sewage Lagoons

East of the Carolinian forest, in fact carved out of the forest, are two of the Region of Niagara’s sewage lagoons. These two ponds have been in operation since the 1950s and are nearing capacity. This facility is the principal receiver for sewage wastes from older parts of the town flowing via William St./Lakeshore Road. Sewage wastes from Virgil flows to the lagoons via Creek Road/Lakeshore Road. For context, the suburb of Queenston has its own mini sewage plant, St. David’s pumps uphill for treatment in Niagara Falls, and Glendale flows under the Welland Canaal to Port Weller.

Only distantly visible from the road, the sewage lagoons seem relatively acceptable on a visual level, and could be imagined as water features or storm water receptors if they were disconnected from the sewage treatment plant. In the summer, the residents of Garrison Village, which lies across Lakeshore Road from the sewage lagoons, complain that the odour from the lagoons is very unpleasant. Residents of Chautauqua and people using Lakeshore Road are also affected. For PN to move forward on any part of this site, the sewage lagoons would need to be closed and the site decontaminated.

This portion of the site is a brownfield ripe for rehabilitation.

3B.5 Former DND Rifle Range

To the east, and separated from the sewage treatment plant and lagoons by a low wire fence, is the parcel of land currently leased to the Department of National Defense. This land, like that around the sewage lagoons and the Carolinian forest, is separated from Lakeshore Road by a chain link fence with a locked vehicle gate

This part of the site was cleared in the past for use as an artillery range. The soil is contaminated with ordinance materials. The cleared area is approximately level and is estimated to be 20 acres. The west edge of this part of the site is bordered by Two Mile Creek while the lake edge on the north side slopes steeply to the shore. The lake edge is reported to be the western end of the site of the Battle for Fort George during the War of 1812, where American


soldiers landed on the shore and were engaged by British Empire forces on this field, so it has important heritage value.

The site has no existing infrastructure with the exception of an incoming power line, vehicle track, and the remains of a bunker used for military training. Much of this portion of the site is occupied by a tract of mature deciduous forest and sizable meadows. The land is well buffered from sources of noise by dense vegetation and tracts of quiet land.

The easternmost portion of the site abuts the west side of Chautauqua, an established and storied Niagara-on-the-Lake neighborhood. The backyards of houses on Shakespeare Avenue adjoin the chain link fence along this boundary.

3B.6 Acquisition and Utilization of the Site for Project Niagara

Conversations began with Parks Canada in May 2007 regarding the possibility of using its site as a home for Project Niagara. Parks Canada owns 25% of the old town of Niagara-on-the-Lake. Over the last half century, it has leased its properties to numerous ventures including the Shaw Festival, a home for the retired, and a golf course. So there is precedence for Parks Canada to evaluate development propositions for its land, and to lease its land rather than sell it.

Parks Canada conducted a Cultural Impact Survey in September of 2007 to determine what impact, from a cultural and heritage perspective, a music festival might have on its property. This survey determined that the portion of the site along the shore of the easternmost corner was the most historically sensitive as it was a landing site and part of the battleground in the War of 1812. It was agreed between the PN team and Parks Canada that the music festival would not touch this portion of the land.

In January of 2008 Environment Canada Minister John Baird and Justice Minister Rob Nicholson announced that Parks Canada was entering into a partnership with the National Arts Centre and the Toronto Symphony Orchestra to explore the possibility of establishing an international music festival on the Parks Canada land in NOTL. Parks Canada is now establishing a team to advise the President of Parks Canada on how a partnership with PN might be structured. Both parties see the value in working together and are interested in a relationship that moves beyond a traditional lessor/lessee arrangement.

3B.7 Cleaning the DND lands

In the autumn of 2007, the DND committed to clean the unused rifle range and return the land to Parks Canada. That work has begun. Depending on the extent of ordinance recovered, and the subsequent environmental assessment, the property could be clean by the summer of 2010. Even if the process is delayed, it will not impede construction timelines for PN as there is no intention in Phase 1 to construct on this portion of the property.

3B.8 Relocation of the Sewage Lagoons

In the summer of 2007 discussions began with the Region of Niagara about the possibility of decommissioning the sewage lagoons on the Parks Canada land. There was initially reason to be optimistic as the lagoons are near capacity and would require action whether or not PN goes forward.

Further work conducted by the Region’s Department of Public Works suggested that if the project to relocate the lagoons (i.e. develop alternative capacity elsewhere) could begin in 2008, the lagoons could be moved in time for construction to take place and the festival to open during the 2012-2014 period for the 200th anniversary of the War of 1812.

An Environmental Assessment is currently underway and is expected to report by March of 2009. At present the estimated cost of closing the lagoons and moving the treatment facility is $33 million, of which $15 million is related specifically to the decommissioning of the lagoons and has been attributed by Public Works to PN as a direct cost.


3B.9 Transportation and Access to the Site

Traffic congestion in and around Niagara-on-the-Lake resulting from PN is one of the biggest concerns raised by residents of NOTL.

A Transportation Master Plan for the Town of Niagara-on-the-Lake – 2004 conducted by Delcan contains numerous recommendations for infrastructure upgrades to make traffic flow more smoothly and safely. The Transportation Master Plan was presented to the Regional Council in December of 2007 and a joint public works group of both town and regional planning staff is currently reviewing the Plan.

According to the Transportation Master Plan for the Town of Niagara-on-the-Lake - 2004, the town at that time had 14,500 residents and 3 million tourists annually. According to the NOTL Chamber of Commerce, roughly 50% of the annual visitors visit between June and September, about 88,000 visitors a week.

Post 2004 visits to Niagara in general and to NOTL have declined due to SARS and more onerous controls at the border crossings with the US. As a result NOTL Chamber of Commerce reports that they have registered approximately 2.5 million visits a year in the last 3 years. About 1.25 million, or 50% those of visits, take place during the four summer months. Therefore in 2005, 2006 and 2007 roughly 73,000 people visited NOTL weekly from June through September.

PN anticipates selling 250,000 tickets over the four summer months. In the statistically unlikely event that all 250,000 tickets are sold to 250,000 different visitors, PN would only restore NOTL to pre-2004 visitor levels.

With the prospect of PN on the horizon, the Regional Department of Public Works has begun work to determine what, if any, road infrastructure improvements need to be considered as a direct result of PN. At this point they have attributed $5.6 million of infrastructure improvements directly to Project Niagara, but have stated that more research has to be done.

At present, there is no answer to the question: “How many more cars will be on NOTL roads as a result of Project Niagara and what impact does this increase have?” Should PN move forward, it will work with the Town and the Region of Niagara to undertake a traffic study to answer this question. PN and the Town will then be in a better position to evaluate this issue.

At a higher level, PN believes that all stakeholders have to work together to address the transportation issues affecting the inflow and outflow of people to the Niagara Region. Niagara is one of Canada’s most important international gateways. The Greater Toronto Area is Canada’s most densely populated urban area. With the US on one side and the GTA on the other, better access to and from Niagara is of paramount importance.

3B.10 Concerns of Residents and Support from Residents

The Chautauqua and Garrison Village neighborhoods are closest to the proposed site for PN. Garrison Village is across Lakeshore Road and Chautauqua is the site’s eastern neighbour. Residents of Chautauqua, in particular those living on Shakespeare Ave, the western-most street and the one closest to the proposed festival grounds, have voiced two particular concerns:

1. Noise from the festival amphitheatre will infiltrate their neighborhood.

2. Cars will use their neighborhood as a thoroughfare to get to the festival, and will park on their streets.

The study team is confident that both of these issues can be addressed satisfactorily should PN move forward.

In addition residents of NOTL have voiced the concern that they will be levied with higher taxes to cover infrastructure costs directly related to PN. To date PN has brought forward no new infrastructure initiatives for consideration by the Region or the Town. It is possible that PN may cause the Region or the Town to re-think the timing of an infrastructure


improvement. Advancing infrastructure work may change the timing of the expenditure for the Region or the Town, but not the cost. Should PN move forward, this concern will be addressed with the residents, the Town, the Region, the Province, and the Federal government.

But too little has been said of the largely positive response PN has received from the local community. There is great enthusiasm within Niagara and Niagara-on-the-Lake for this project. The NOTL Chamber of Commerce has struck a committee specifically to help bring this project to realization. The Friends of Fort George, a local heritage group, has voiced its support of the project. Community leaders from Virgil, the neighbouring farming community, have voiced support. The Shaw Festival’s management has come out in favour of PN. Symphony Niagara is supportive of the initiative. The Town Council of NOTL’s motion of unanimous “support in principle” of PN is another indication that PN is seen as a “good thing” for the town.

It is not unusual for NOTL residents, or citizens anywhere, to be divided in their response to major new initiatives. The Shaw Festival’s experience was not dissimilar. Many people opposed the Festival’s appearance and use of Parks Canada land. Today, close to forty years later, few would be able to dispute the tremendous contribution the Shaw Festival has made to NOTL’s economy and the lives of its residents.

3B.11 Community Relations Committee

If PN moves forward, a permanent mechanism will be required to ensure that the concerns of the residents of NOTL are being heard, resolved if possible, and handled with care at all times. As an example, the Ravinia Festival, which immediately abuts residential areas, provides a model for the establishment of a Community Relations Committee.

The Ravinia Festival Community Relations Commission regularly reviews and advises the City Council and the Ravinia Festival Association on neighborhood concerns. The Commission was created in 1985 by the City and the Festival to seek citizen comment and to monitor the impact of the Festival's activities on the community. The Commission reviews proposals and advises the Ravinia Festival Association on planned capital improvements, as those improvements impact the City's Comprehensive Master Plan and the Ravinia neighborhood.

The Ravinia Festival Community Relations Commission consists of eight (8) voting members. There are 5 Members at Large and 3 Members recommended by the Ravinia Festival. The Mayor as a non-voting ex officio Member and 1 non-voting ex officio Member from the City Council complete the group. Terms last for a period of three years each but only those Commission members chosen by the Ravinia Festival may serve for more than two full consecutive terms.

This Committee would provide residents with the assurance that they will be consulted and that problems will be addressed as they arise.


4. Market Assessment and Attendance Projection

In this section of the Study the market for Project Niagara is discussed. First, the potential markets available to the Festival are described. Second, the marketing plan that will be put into place (to ensure awareness and interest on the part of these target markets) is outlined, and the cost of this marketing plan is discussed. Third, the pricing structure of Project Niagara is described (as this is another key variable affecting attendance). With the marketing plan and pricing structure outlined, the fourth step is to present the projection of attendance. The fifth and final step is to present this estimate of total visits within the context of attendance at both other festivals and other attractions in Niagara Region, in order to demonstrate reasonableness.

As this market assessment is a key element of feasibility, a number of qualified sources were consulted to provide an external and objective cross reference on the assumptions and conclusions. First, the marketing department at the Shaw Festival was very helpful in vetting base market assumptions and data. Second, staff at the Niagara Economic Development Corporation has reviewed the base information relating to tourism and the residential market. Third, two third party specialty consultancies with a considerable track record in the arts and cultural sector assisted with the marketing strategy outline and the projection of attendance1.

Finally, marketing staff at the NAC and TSO assisted in developing the base assumptions underlying the programming plan. This level of external validation and consultation gives a large measure of assurance that the estimates developed here are realistic and provide a solid base upon which to assess the financial and economic sustainability of the venture.

Key Findings and Conclusions • The international music festival will complement the Shaw Festival, the wine tours, upscale accommodation and fine

dining in attracting many visitors to the region. • Within a day’s drive there is a population of nearly 100 million people. Filtering this down to the number of adults with

a demonstrated interest in the kind of offering that will be available at Project Niagara results in a qualified market of approximately 20 million people.

• An aggressive marketing plan, using multiple types of media (including all digital forms) is planned to reach these

qualified markets. This is estimated to cost just under $5 million from now up to and including the opening year of 2012, and on average about $2.5 million per year thereafter.

• The pricing structure for Project Niagara will provide a range of price options. Average price points will be toward the lower end of the benchmark range for a festival of this type to encourage attendance in the initial years, yet there will be high-end premium seating opportunities available as well.

• In the fifth year of operations, attendance is expected to be on the order of 262,000. This compares conservatively with other international music festivals in North America and is reasonable for an attraction in the Niagara Region. The Shaw Festival, for example, has an audience of 300,000 plus.

• A significant proportion of this visitor base will consist of destination visitors, for whom Project Niagara will be the primary reason for their visit to the region and without which they would not have come. This group is conservatively estimated to be approximately 20% of the audience: 52,000 by year 5.

1 Inga Petri, Strategic Moves Ltd., Ottawa, and Scott Thornley + Company, Toronto.


4.1 Potential Markets Available to Project Niagara

There are several ways of examining the potential markets available to Project Niagara. The first is to look at the geographical proximity of these markets to the festival site. A common approach to geographical market segmentation is to think in terms of (1) a ‘local’ market that is comprised in this instance of those living in the Region of Niagara, (2) a regional market comprised of those who live within a two-hour driving distance (and for whom a day outing to Project Niagara would be feasible), and (3) a group from further afield who would take a day to drive the distance to the site (and who would come for an overnight stay of one or more days). Breaking the available market down into these constituent parts shows that the site is well positioned within a vast audience potential:

Geographical Market Segment Anticipated Size (projected to the year 2012, the first

operating year of the Festival) 1) Local Market (Region of Niagara) 448,000 2) Regional Market (within a 2-hour drive, but excluding the local market above)

- 7.162 million on the Canadian side of the border (excluding Niagara Region)

- 2.307 million on the US side of the border = 9.469 million in total

3) Within a day’s drive (but excluding (1) and (2) above) 88.7 million Total 98.6 million

Strictly in terms of the numbers of people available within a day’s drive (a common means of measuring market potential for a major destination attraction) there will be slightly fewer than 100 million persons by the year 2012.

A second perspective on the assessment of market potential is to examine the interest of individuals in the types of programming offered and the propensity of people to attend an event such as the envisioned Project Niagara festival. Here, research into the interests and motivations of people in the marketplace is of particular use (known as psychographic market segmentation). Research in both Canada and the US (work done for the Travel Attitudes and Motivation Survey by the Ontario Ministry of Tourism on the Canadian side and by the Knight Foundation on the US side shows remarkable consistency on terms of about 25% of the adult population being the types of people who are interested in culture, entertainment performances, and knowledge – and thus the types of people to have a greater-than-average interest in Project Niagara. (In general terms, therefore, it could be deduced that if 80% of the population within the day’s drive market area were adults, and 25% of them were the types of people that would be interested in the kind of offering provided by Project Niagara, then the ‘qualified market’ might be on the order of 20 million persons.)


A third perspective on the market potential is in terms of the existing and potential future tourism market for the Niagara Region. Disaggregating this market into its constituent components, there are a number of trends to note: the Canadian component of the market has fluctuated to some extent in the past few years around an average of approximately 5.3 million visits, the US component has declined significantly, at nearly 7% per annum, and the international component, although small, has grown steadily at just under 3% per year. Our projection of tourism visitation to the Region to the year 2012 assumes ‘status quo’ on the part of the Canadian market (i.e. stability at around the 5.3 million tourist visits per year mark), ‘status quo’ on the part of the international market (i.e. continuing growth) and some diminution in the rate of decline in the US market (as a result of anticipated success in negotiations to facilitate tours and border crossing).

The above assumes that the base product available within the Niagara Region does not change significantly in a way that will alter the fundamental structure of tourism to the Region. However, Project Niagara itself will bring about a powerful change of this type. Traditionally, the typical tourist to Niagara Region has been a short-stay, low expenditure type of visitor, whereas Project Niagara, in concert with other higher-end attractions such as the Shaw Festival and the wine tours, will attract a different type of tourist. Therefore, the status quo projection discussed above may be an underestimate, insofar as Project Niagara will attract its own destination visitors – i.e., people who would not otherwise have come to the Region. This is further explored in the subsequent ‘Attendance Projection’ section of this Study.

The foregoing demonstrates that there is a large and growing market on the doorstep of the Project Niagara site, and that it is the kind of festival to attract a different type of tourist to the Niagara Region.

4.2 Marketing Plan: Messages, Media, Budget

Given the existence of major market opportunity in the form of the geographical markets sitting on the doorstep of Project Niagara as well as the tourism base of the Niagara Region, this section reviews the nature and type of marketing efforts designed to raise awareness, and create interest and motivation to attend a performance. Note that this is not a detailed marketing plan, but rather an outline of the key points and messages that such a plan would contain.

The goals of the proposed marketing strategy are:

1. achieve high awareness (50% of the market is aware by summer of 2012) in the knowledge and entertainment seeker segment in Canada and the US

2. foster desirability through sustained buzz: targeted, high value and breakthrough marketing tactics

3. position as innovative tourism product of the highest international calibre to stimulate new tourism visits

and repeat visits to area A preliminary outline marketing plan has been developed to do this. During 2009 the focus would be on researching the fundamental elements of the marketing plan: branding, messaging, graphic assets, corporate materials and succinct vision brochure. Many of these items are one time or intermittent marketing expenditures. During this initial year, the intention will be to build the partnership strategy and start approaching potential partners spanning tourism, arts and culture as well as media organizations. Media and public relations would be used to maintain a presence for key activities relating to the project’s development, while the web would become the public’s go-to point to ensure those following the project can be apprised of its evolution.

2010 would be the year to solidify and expand on these initial activities, put in place a host of multi-year strategic partnership agreements and begin marketing to the tourism sector. Tourism trade shows, tour operators and established arts and education channels will help PN reach the culturally-inclined audience.

During 2011, marketing activities would ramp up through a wide variety of partner-based and other activities that build profile among target market segments. Tourism trade show presence would now move into high gear with more specific information about the opening season. Similarly, print collateral would be updated and distributed. Media coverage would increase as the project moves rapidly from idea to reality. The web, a leading component, would continue to expand dramatically. At this stage, audience research would be undertaken in source markets to inform marketing and/or programming.


The launch year, 2012, would see an intense marketing in all areas, including a substantial amount of targeted advertising both via the partner network and other advertising. Programming announcements would be used to gain extensive media coverage and feed the online web presence and online marketing activities. Similarly, an increasing number of PR events would take place to familiarize local stakeholders and tourism partners with the new facility. Gearing up for the official opening would see deployment of strategies and tactics to ensure full capacity for all performances that comprise the official launch period.

The diagram below summarizes the major components of this marketing plan:

The foregoing assumes that a compelling brand identity for the Festival is forged, building upon the innovative programming of the festival, the outstanding site, and iconic architecture of the amphitheatre, the historic associations of the site (particularly the War of 1812), and the image and reputation of the artistic director, performing musicians and conductors.

Key to the successful marketing of PN will be packaging with the other successful attractors comprising the cultural product of the region – the Shaw Festival, the wine tours, upscale accommodation, and fine dining. (This will include not only joint marketing and promotional initiatives, but actual product packaging as well.) Association with these premium products and experiences enhance the overall brand equity of Project Niagara – and vice versa. The entire positioning of the cultural product of Niagara will be enhanced by such cooperative ventures.

The cost of the marketing program as envisaged is $4.9 million over the period 2008 to the opening year of 2012 (this accommodates all of the ‘out of pocket’ costs of the activities outlined above, but not any of the staffing or administrative costs). Thereafter, the marketing budget will average approximately $2.5 million per year (increasing slightly in each year as earned revenues increase as well).


4.3 Pricing Strategy

The other key variable that affects attendance, in addition to the effectiveness of a marketing campaign, is the pricing structure/strategy for the attraction discussed below.

The level of participation in live performing arts is limited for most people by time and disposable income. Pricing is structured to be affordable for the majority of interested patrons (within the range seen at other music festivals) while at the same time creating premium priced opportunities. The overall result is an average cost per ticket for orchestral performance that is in-line with comparable festivals– which incidentally takes account of this being an outdoor venue, rather than a traditional concert hall.

To develop a robust audience from the first season, wide-spread trial attendance will be stimulated through a discounted price structure (although not enough to cause alarm at other attractions). This discounting can be targeted at any segment for different reasons: frequent attendees are rewarded for multiple ticket purchases, multi-year “membership” discounts to appeal to those who travel further to attend, local community discounts to foster positive relations and build community ownership, corporate offers, and opening weekend passes.

On the other hand, premium pricing can be used to also provide an exclusive, special experience to those willing and able to pay more. Ultimately, an optimal pricing framework would be evolved using the festival’s year-over-year audience research data, as well as studying audience trends in general for the live performing arts and orchestral music in particular.

4.4 Attendance Projections

4.4.1 Two Attendance Projection Scenarios

Project Niagara is a totally new concept and initiative for Canada. Because of this, there are not ready models or comparables to draw upon when examining how it will impact upon the market. Other international music festivals are either too new to provide useful models (e.g. Bethel Woods), or too long-established with loyal audiences that have been developed over decades (e.g. Tanglewood, Ravinia), to provide direct comparables as to how the first few years of Project Niagara will unfold. There are two possible realities regarding the early years of a completely new festival of this type, both of which are explored here:

1) Attendance Surge in Year 1: This model, which is seen for example in museums and art galleries, as well as major festivals and events, holds that the first year of a festival such as Project Niagara will be a ‘blockbuster’ year, with a large influx of attendance, not typical of the years immediately following. In this model it has been shown that the culmination of a long period of marketing and awareness building in a specific market results in growing interest, expectations, and curiosity regarding the upcoming event. This pent up demand translates to a large influx of new attendance in the first year of operations, as people come for the novelty and to be part of the ‘in-crowd’. The festival is widely regarded as the popular place to be. Attendance in subsequent years drops from this first-year peak, as the curiosity-seekers move on to the next happening, leaving a residual core audience to build over time from that point. This approach would thus assume some dip in attendance in the second year, which then grows over time such that in 3 to 5 years time, attendance has built back to what it was in the peak year. (Note that the planned opening date of 2012 for the Project Niagara festival coincides with a barrage of other events and festivities planned for the Region to commemorate the bicentennial of the War of 1812, and so there will be lots going on in the Region to entice curiosity-seekers in that year.)

2) Consistent Growth from Year 1: The other approach suggests that, because of the nature of Project Niagara (a festival that is not sitting directly in its major market, but is a drive away from its major markets and results in a marketing campaign that has to hit several large metropolitan areas and numerous smaller communities in between), first year attendance may be more modest, reflecting greater market uncertainty and lack of awareness as to the nature of the event. In this scenario the first year audience would be comprised to some extent of ‘early adopters’ who seek innovation and novelty. These are people who attend in the first year primarily because the festival is new, not because it is necessarily popular. This group of early adopters, so to


speak, will be a smaller group than those who come because it is popular. From this lower base in the first year, the audience grows over time.

Regardless of which of these scenarios actually unfolds over time, the analysis shows, in fact, that both scenarios converge on the same order of magnitude attendance by Year 5 of operations.

4.4.2 Attendance Estimation Methodology

To develop the forecast of attendance to Project Niagara, a four-step model was developed. Conceptually, this has the effect of whittling down the total population into an estimate of those who might actually come in any given year. The description below provides an overview of the philosophy and process. The result generates an estimate for a qualified audience that is over 300,000 persons. However, because there are 50 concerts over the season, and the experience of other venues suggests that an average audience size of approximately 5,000 is the norm, the actual attendance modeled is between 200,000 and 250,000 in the first year (reflecting each of the above scenarios). Accordingly, this analysis should be thought of as demonstrating that the audience potential is real and achievable.

The methodology employed four steps, which can be thought of as ‘filters’ applied to the total population of potential visitors (which relate to and reflect the various market segmentation approaches outlined in Section 4.1 as they relate to the propensity of these segments to visit the Festival). Each filter acts to narrow down the audience potential, getting progressively closer to actual, real visitors.

First filter: General interest in culture and the arts: The first filter has the effect of identifying from the potential market those who are likely to be interested in the kind of programming provided at the Project Niagara festival.

Second filter: Likelihood of visiting Niagara Region: The second filter assesses those who are likely to visit the Niagara Region. Based on historical information, this is a ‘market penetration analysis’ that assigns greater likelihood of attendance from the smaller Canadian market compared to the larger US market.

Third filter: Actual attendance at musical events: The third filter assesses the probability that a culturally inclined visitor (the first filter) who is in the Niagara Region (the second filter) has actually a track record of attending a cultural event while travelling. This results in a highly targeted group with a high probability of attending a concert at Project Niagara.

Fourth filter: Propensity to attend: The final factor examines the likelihood that a highly qualified potential respondent will actually visit the festival in the 17-week season in which it is mounted. This final factor assigns a greater likelihood of attendance and frequency of attendance to markets that are closer geographically to the festival site.

As mentioned, this assessment showed that there was a potential audience of over 300,000 – these are individuals who have a cultural inclination, are either already in the Region or are likely to attend. The 50 concerts offered over the summer season draw on this group. The actual attendance estimated according to the two scenarios referenced above is shown below:

Year Attendance Surge in Year 1,

Attendance Consistent Growth from Year 1,

Attendance Year 1 (2012) 250,000 225,000 Year 2 (2013) 225,000 234,000 Year 3 (2014) 237,500 243,000 Year 4 (2015) 250,000 253,000 Year 5 (2016) 262,500 263,000


4.4.3 Significance of Destination Attendance

As reflected in the vision and concept description, PN will attract a significant number of visitors who come to the Niagara Region specifically because it is a source for cultural product – the offering that is available through not just the festival but the entire package of higher-end amenities the region has to offer. These include, of course, the Shaw Festival, the wine tours, the upscale accommodation, fine dining - all of which are set amidst the scenic natural beauty of the area. Some will come primarily or only for the Project Niagara festival and may or may not avail of the other cultural attractions in the region. Many more will enjoy a smorgasbord of several attractions – but for whom the Project Niagara was the key catalyst for the visit or at least an essential component in the mix. These are destination visitors – their defining characteristic is that they would not have come to the area had the Project Niagara festival not been on.

Cultivation of these visitors is an aim of Project Niagara. Extensive tourism research shows that these cultural visitors stay longer and spend more. Increasing the proportion of destination visitors in the region’s overall tourism mix is an important strategic objective of the region’s tourism industry, and one of the ways in which the recent and projected decline in tourism can be slowed. Accordingly, it is very important for the orientation of the Project Niagara, through its brand positioning, marketing activities, and promotional messages, to be strongly focused upon the destination visitor market. Project Niagara will not engage in ‘marketing as usual’ – it must convey a strong, positive, and alluring message to the larger cultural marketplace discussed earlier. The art and science of the marketing undertaken must reflect this orientation.

Our audience assessment reflects this aspiration and marketing intent. The promotion undertaken must be focused upon, and successful in attracting, a significant proportion of destination visitors within the visitor mix – our target is 20% (and this target may well be conservative2). With its sister operations such as the Shaw, the wine tours, etc. this will continue to change the structure of tourism in the Niagara region.

Other patrons of the Festival, though not destination visitors, will also contribute in a positive way to the economy of the region. Even though they may primarily be in the region for other reasons, or may live there, many will stay longer and/or spend more in the region than they would have otherwise (i.e. than if they had not visited Project Niagara). This will clearly contribute to positive economic benefit in the region. The economic impact analysis presented in Chapter 9 of this document outlines these specific benefits.

The target for new destination visitors and attendance from existing attendance in Year 5 (when the two approaches outlined earlier are expected to converge upon approximately 262,000 in terms of the attendance to the Festival), showing the ‘existing’ and ‘destination’ components of attendance is presented below. This analysis breaks down the anticipated attendance by source market, suggesting the target numbers of destination visitors from each of these market segments:

Attendance from

‘Existing Markets’ to Niagara Region

New Destination Attendance to the Region

as a Result of Project Niagara

Total Audience

From Canada 173,300 34,000 207,300 From US 35,400 17,000 52,400 From International 1,300 1,000 2,300

Total 210,000 52,000 262,000

As a reality check’ on this assumption: a recent on-line survey of patrons to the Shaw Festival indicated that 58% of patrons bought tickets 3 months or more in advance – without question most of these are destination visitors whose other activities in the region will be planned around the Festival outing, which was the primary reason for their visit. Therefore the ‘20% destination visitors assumption’ outlined above is clearly conservative.


As this shows, approximately 20% of the total audience for Project Niagara is expected to be comprised of true destination visitors – those whose visit to the Niagara Region is wholly as a result of the festival (and without which they likely would not come). For the others, the festival is one reason among others that they have for visiting the Region. Many will extend their stays in the Region as a result of the festival, so the total number of tourist-nights spent in the Region will increase at a rate greater than the number of actual visitors to the Region. (See the section on Economic Impact in Chapter 9 for further details on this.)

4.4.5 Reasonableness of Attendance Projections

A final demonstration of reasonableness is shown by comparing the projected level of attendance at Project Niagara with levels of attendance seen at other international music festivals as well as with other attractions in the Niagara Region. This simply demonstrates that the levels of attendance projected here are not excessive or out of line in the context of a) similar international music festivals, or b) other attractions in the Region.

Other International Music Festivals

Festival

Total Attendance (rounded)

Project Niagara, Year 5

262,000

Tanglewood

350,000

Ravinia

607,000

Wolf Trap

500,000

Blossom

110,000 (orchestral)

Other Attractions in Niagara Region

Year of Operations

Total Attendance (rounded)

Project Niagara, Year 5

262,000

Maid of the Mist Boat Tour (Niagara Parks Commission)

1,767,000

Journey Behind the Falls (Niagara Parks Commission)

1,017,000

Butterfly Conservatory (Niagara Parks Commission)

504,000

Falls Incline Railway (Niagara Parks Commission)

676,000

Shaw Festival

325,000


5. Physical Design and Capital Costs

This section of the Study presents considerations relating to configuration of the theatre on the site and the design of the amphitheatre itself. The firms of Kuwabara Payne McKenna Blumberg (KPMB) and Westlake Reed Leskosky (WRL) undertook the preliminary conceptual design of the facility. Covered in this section are the location and configuration of the amphitheatre on the site, the design of the amphitheatre itself, considerations relating to landscape and parking, and the estimated capital cost.

Key Findings and Conclusions • It is feasible to build a concert amphitheatre on the Parks Canada lands with an inspiring view of old growth forest. • An iconic architectural development is possible in this spectacular natural setting. • Three phases of development are contemplated:

1. 2008-2012: core Festival infrastructure 2. 2017-2022: gardens, rehearsal hall/small-scale performance venue, on-site foodservice facilities; 3. 2022 and beyond: completion of the campus concept including year-round concert hall

• Phase 1 is estimated to cost about $76.5 million (in 2012 dollars).

• The funding model for the capital costs assumes $25.5 million will be raised from the private sector -- to be matched dollar for dollar by each of the Government of Canada and the Province of Ontario.

5.1 Site Assessment and Preliminary Design

Project Niagara is a vision for a new destination venue that will bring the performance and appreciation of music to an extraordinary historical landscape. Inspiration is drawn from similar facilities such as Tanglewood, in which the experience of music in landscape has created a memorable destination. Tanglewood is nestled in a bucolic environment that provides a relaxed setting, exuding a particular kind of American ease and informality. The sense of occasion and quality of experience found at Tanglewood suggest ways to augment and celebrate the natural features of this Canadian site. The starting point for the site development was to find the best location for the Performance Pavilion. The greatest visitor experience can be had by setting the pavilion in the centre zone at a unique clearing in the woods where the western lagoon meets the old growth forest. Here the opportunity for placemaking on a grand scale can be understood


immediately. The scale and shape of the curve defined by the stately Carolinian forest is compelling; heroic figures of ash, beech, maple, and bur oak are awe-inspiring. Constructed landforms will be shaped to complement the architecture. The lawn will be an elevated audience seating area for good sightlines. Sustainable building principles and natural materials will be used. Local materials such as stone and wood will lend dignity, authenticity, and timelessness to the project. Trees will be planted to buffer views and sound from surrounding residential neighbourhoods. A number of constructed measures including acoustic barriers will also be implemented to contain and absorb sound. The design approach respects the complex ecology and history of the site while remediating the depreciated assets of the municipal sewage treatment facility. Intensive development will be limited to select site areas so that the buildings are concentrated around the nucleus of the Performance Pavilion. Site access and parking have been minimized to address the limits of the site and respect the surrounding neighbourhoods. A convenient drop-off area for shuttles will encourage off-site parking. Parking areas could be laid out among trees to achieve an orchard-like setting and mitigate ‘heat island’ effects. The following text is keyed to accompanying diagrams:

Site Overview: (DIAGRAM #1): The site for Project Niagara is within the Golden Horseshoe region, the populous and economically vibrant area wrapping the western tip of Lake Ontario. The site is easily accessed from the Greater Toronto Area, cities in southwestern Ontario, and the states of New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Distances to the project site: Downtown Toronto to Niagara-on-the-Lake 130 km /1.5 hours, Niagara Falls to Niagara-on-the-Lake 20 km / 20 minutes, Buffalo, New York, to Niagara-on-the-Lake 58 km / 50 minutes. Immediate Situation (DIAGRAM #2): The elongated site is immediately west of Chautauqua in the old town of Niagara-on-the- Lake and extends along the south shore of Lake Ontario. It is a large site, comprising 108 ha / 268 acres, that narrows at the west end. The frontage along Lakeshore Road is 2.25 kilometres. The neighbourhood of Garrison Village and the town of Virgil are nearby. The Jackson-Triggs Estate Winery is one of many wineries that are close neighbours. Fruit orchards and farmland surround the area. Niagara-on-the-Lake, with heritage buildings from the 18th and 19th centuries, a golf course, art galleries, retail, and hotel accommodation make the setting ideal for cultural tourists.

Site Orientation (DIAGRAM #3): The site is comprised of three major zones. At the west end of the site, 4-Mile Creek and Niagara Shores Park provide opportunities for a range of recreational activities and views of Lake Ontario. At the east end, the beach and adjacent land east of Two Mile Creek are of historic significance related to the War of 1812. This area is characterized by meadows and the linear land-forms of an abandoned Department of National Defense artillery range. The central portion of the site is occupied by an extraordinary dense Carolinian forest of old growth trees. Two open lagoons related to a sewage treatment facility share the middle zone with the forest. The diagram shows four time periods in the history of the site:

1934 Original stream alignment intact 1953 Site as Training Centre, Department of National Defense 1968 Site as Sewage Treatment Lagoons 2006 Current

Landscape Character (DIAGRAM #4): This shows the major landscape elements on the site. As indicated, the landscape is varied, with dune features, grasslands, marsh, meadow and water features.

Green Zones / Ecology (DIAGRAM #5): This shows the major areas that need to be taken into consideration when planning the environmental sustainability of the site. There are both areas to be cherished and protected such as old growth forest areas, marsh, and wetlands, as well as areas earmarked for remediation (e.g. former tank range, artillery range and sewage lagoons).


Campus Concept Plan (DIAGRAM #6): The Campus Concept Plan provides a sustainable framework within which Project Niagara can be gradually developed in an ecologically responsible way. The westerly park and easterly historic zone would not be developed intensively. The centre area contains the pearl. Rippling out from the performance facility core is a collection of support buildings, landscape elements, and on-site parking. Forest, park, meadow, and creek will be preserved. New landscape elements will regenerate and naturalize. Access to the site can occur at a number of points along Lakeshore Road.

Landscape Analysis and Location of Amphitheatre (DIAGRAM #7): The amphitheatre location was determined after site analysis from historic aerial photos by Phillips Farevaag Smallenberg Inc. (PFS), landscape architects. The path of the former oxbow of 2-Mile Creek and the curve formed by the western edge of the old growth Carolinian forest at the north lagoon define a natural gathering place. This provides a graceful fit with the form of the Performance Pavilion. The forest provides an outdoor setting of great beauty. At the same time, the density of the forest provides a buffer against lake sounds and north-west winds. Suggested elements to surround the amphitheatre may include orchard parking, a sloping lawn, formal and event gardens, a small amphitheatre, beach facilities, boardwalk and pedestrian pathways. New plants and trees can be planted to build on the strengths and character of the site. Re-forestation at the east end of the site would dampen sound and view from the site into adjacent neighbourhoods. Architectural Elements (DIAGRAM #8): The key architectural elements consist of a Performance Pavilion with covered seating for 2000, a sloping lawn for a larger audience, and lawn terraces flanking the lawn which provide stepped outdoor space with good sightlines to the stage. Bars, washrooms, and gift boutiques are located at the top of the lawn terraces. At a later stage a first-class restaurant is conceivable in this location with panoramic views of the Pavilion, the forest canopy, and the lake. A perimeter service road creates a loop around the performance facility. Iconic Design (DIAGRAM #9): The geometry of the roof and flytower is united by curved lines creating an iconic form inspired by musical instruments and sailing vessels. The Performance Pavilion is an open structure with a great arch of laminated wood which frames the performance space and draws the audience in. The association between the wood structure of the Performance Pavilion and the forest enhances the sense of continuity between interior and exterior. Inside, the stage is defined by four large columns that support the rigging grid. They are clad in planks of wood that disperse and expand at the top. The underside of the space frame, comprised of wood struts and steel king-post supports, is a dense filagree evoking tree branches. At the perimeter of the Performance Pavilion, open sides provide ventilation and views into the woods. Wood paneling on the side walls of seating areas as well as on the side and back walls of the stage sustains the boreal theme of the architecture. The sloping lawn will be selectively planted with trees to generate intimacy and define space.

Sustainable Design (DIAGRAM #10): The interior structure, developed in collaboration with west-coast structural engineers Fast + Epp, takes advantage of a forest industry waste product known as “peeler cores”, which are by-products of plywood production. Plywood veneers are generated by cutting layers of wood from the circumference of a log like the unrolling of toilet paper. Peeler cores are discarded when the diameter of a log is too small to peel further. Not only is the use of the peeler cores a sustainable use of leftover material, it acts as a metaphorical tree canopy inside the Performance Pavilion. On top of part of the roof is a blanket of plants that will absorb rain and heat from above and sound from below. Green roofs will also be installed on support buildings. Acoustical Design (DIAGRAM #11): The acoustic design of the Performance Pavilion is intended to create the finest outdoor concert experience. The goal is to create an excellent natural acoustic for listeners inside the Performance Pavilion, augmented with an electronic enhancement system for patrons on the lawn. The design will make reference to “Vineyard Step” seating plans such as those used in the Berlin Philharmonie and the Walt Disney Hall in Los Angeles, which determine the shape of the auditorium and affect its acoustics. Noise control berms and barriers will be incorporated into the landscape design to protect nearby neighbourhoods from unwanted noise.

Project Niagara International Music Festival – Phase 2 Study – June 1 - CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT

DIAGRAM #1: SITE OVERVIEW


DIAGRAM #2: IMMEDIATE SITUATION


DIAGRAM #3: SITE ORIENTATION


DIAGRAM #4: LANDSCAPE CHARACTER


DIAGRAM #5: GREEN ZONES


DIAGRAM #6: CAMPUS CONCEPT PLAN


DIAGRAM #7: LANDSCAPE ANALYSIS AND LOCATION OF AMPHITHEATRE


DIAGRAM #8: ARCHITECTURAL ELEMENTS


DIAGRAM #9: RENDERING


DIAGRAM #10: SUSTAINABLE DESIGN


DIAGRAM #11: ACOUSTICAL DESIGN

Project Niagara International Music Festival – Phase 2 Study – December 2008

5.2 Capital Costs

5.2.1 Process to Model Costs A costing exercise was conducted to determine a probable cost for the project and to determine what an affordable scope of work for Phase 1 of the project might be. The following points record the basis for the estimating work, the available information, the costing process, and the nature of the data presented in the simplified summary that follows. Class D Estimate: The estimate was produced by CM2R (Curran McCabe Ravindran Ross) of Toronto and was approached in an elemental fashion employing current generic unit / area rates, producing a ‘Class D’ estimate. One author has defined a ‘Class D’ estimate as follows: “Based upon a statement of requirements, and an outline of potential solutions, this estimate is strictly an indication (rough order of magnitude) of the final project cost …”. This is the customary and appropriate level of cost reporting for a project at the concept / feasibility stage of development. Process of Developing the Estimate: Information provided to CM2R for preparation of the estimate included a survey of the site, a site plan for the project timeline indicating bidding and construction start dates for various components of the project, and concept drawings for the principal concert venue and related landscape elements (seating berm, sound wall, and service road, etc.). A meeting was held at the start of the costing exercise to discuss the design and clarify the costing information. Philosophy of Developing the Cost Estimate: The costing was deliberately very inclusive and tried to generate cost information for any potential elements that might be included in the scope of the project whether they belonged to the “core program” or not. The cost summary was structured in a way that facilitated an “a la carte” approach to defining the project, embedding full project costs in each line item to simplify the analysis of potential project scope scenarios. At the completion of the initial analysis, a meeting was conducted to review CM2R’s assumptions for unit cost rates and the areas and quantities that they had developed. Adjustments were made to produce a comprehensive ‘raw’ cost summary. A refined summary was then developed through a series of working meetings between KPMB and representatives of the TSO and NAC. This was distilled to become a more clearly defined project consisting of the most essential functional program elements - the Phase 1 portion of the project. The summary is organized under row headings for buildings, landscape elements, and other components. Cost Model: This cost model is built of the following elements:

1) A Base Estimated Cost which represents the construction cost for the each element in today’s (spring 2008) dollars. The “Base Estimated Cost” is an opinion of probable cost based on normal competitive bidding conditions and is intended to fall within a range of bids received from a number of competitive contractors.

2) A Design Contingency, which anticipates costs that will emerge as the design work proceeds and the definition of the work becomes more precise. The amount is a percentage of Base Estimated Cost based on empirical data from the design processes of countless projects.

3) A Construction Contingency allocates a percentage of the construction cost for unforeseen

conditions and other costs arising during the construction period (once again based on empirical data from numerous analogous projects).

4) Other Soft Costs allocates an amount for consultant fees, municipal permits, and furnishings, fixtures

and equipment purchased separately from the construction contract.

5) Finally, these costs modeled also contain an Escalation Cost, which anticipates a 5% per annum rate of escalation in construction pricing (a figure supported by current Statistics Canada documentation for the areas in and around Toronto).


Treatment of GST: It should be noted that the summary assumes a net GST payment of 3% based on similar projects but this figure has not been verified with Revenue Canada. Costs Not Included: As is standard with this type of estimate, costs not covered include the following: land and associated costs, site environmental remediation costs, legal fees and expenses, development charges, financing costs, testing and special inspection costs, surveys, administration expenses, premiums associated with ‘single source’ materials and systems, premiums associated with schedule acceleration, moving and relocation costs, LEED registration and related costs (if applicable) and integrated art work. Although not included in the capital budget, the relevant costs from the list above will be part of PN’s start-up costs ($3 million per year for 4 years).

5.2.2 Phase 1 and 2 Costs

The development of the vision for Project Niagara is conceptualized over several phases. These are:

Phase 1 – 2008 to 2012: the development of the basic concept as outlined in section 5.1

Phase 2 – 2017 to 2022: further site improvements to fully realize the Project Niagara vision – the development of gardens, a small rehearsal/recital hall and expanded kitchen and servery facilities

Phase 3 – 2022 and beyond: completion of the campus through the development of an 800-seat concert hall.


Estimated Capital Cost of the Facility: Phase 1

The development of the vision for Project Niagara is conceptualized over several phases. The table below outlines the anticipated costing for Phase 1 of the development the project, which will enable the Festival to be mounted in the Year 2012. It is important to consider that this costing is based on conceptual information for use in the evaluation of the feasibility of the project. In the words of the architectural consultants, "These costs do not really represent an estimate, but rather a model budget that provides a roadmap for the development of the project. It will challenge and qualify the functional program in some instances...".

Design Contingency: 10% Construction Contingency: 4% Consulting Fees: 11% Development & Permit Charge: 2% Furnishings & Equipment: 3%

Cost includes:

Escalation: 5% per annum Project Management: 2% Cost does not include: Project Contingency: Based on risk

Buildings Phase 1 Description

A - Performance Pavilion $26,970,000 Main performance venue with limited fly capacity and movable orchestra shell, backstage space, and audience seating for approximately 2000

B – Back of House Support Building $2,990,000 Dressing rooms, green room, production offices, technical workshops

F1 - Concessions - Food $1,380,000 Facilities for sale of food and drink, outsourced product supply

F2 - Concessions - Toilet $1,960,000 Facilities to accommodate large classical audience approximately 4500

F3 - Concessions - Wine/Gift Shop $790,000 Small gift shop

G – Admin Building $1,840,000 Office and support facilities for full time and seasonal staff

H - Box Office /Ticketing/Security Building

$530,000

J - Maintenance, Staff Facilities Building

$680,000 Repair shop, mechanical shop, locker rooms

Total Buildings $37,140,000

Landscape Elements

K1 - Audience Seating Berm $4,520,000 Sloped and terraced treed lawn seating for open air audience of 7000 to 9000

K2 - Sound Wall $350,000 Earth works to minimize sound travel into adjacent neighborhoods

K5 - Parking Lots and Roadways $6,070,000

Total Landscape Elements $10,940,000

Other

L - Infrastructure/Site Services $5,600,000 Water, sewer, electrical service distribution on site

N - Site Preparations $11,530,000 Fill and compaction of lagoons, site clearing and grading of site for construction

Q - Performance Equipment $3,830,000 Stage lighting system, orchestra pit, modest rigging for stage house, portable stage equipment

R - Audio-Video Systems $5,220,000 Acoustic enhancement system, sound reinforcement system, video/image magnification

Total Other $26,180,000

Sub Total $74,260,000

GST $2,230,000

Phase 1 Project Total $76,490,000


The table below shows the capital costs modeled for Phase 2 of Project Niagara (in 2012 dollars).

Buildings Phase 2 Description C - Rehearsal/Recital/Lecture Building $7,130,000

Rehearsal Hall, small recital hall, seating for 450 for chamber and small orchestral work

D - Busker Stage $560,000

outdoor stage to accommodate site animation and non-ticketed entertainment

E1 - Restaurant/VIP Café $3,230,000 restaurant and donor/VIP food and reception facilities E2 - Event Space/Central Kitchen

$4,460,000 Facilities to provide on-site food preparation and accommodate large reception

Landscaping

K3 - Formal Gardens $830,000 Gardens to provide space for designed horticultural display K4 - Event Garden

$7,010,000 Entry plaza (our foyer), the space to accumulate our audience prior to entrance to the pavilion

K10 - Festival Support Infrastructure $1,300,000 Services for festival and kiosk support

Phase 3, which is the longer-term realization of the full potential of the site, or completion of the campus plan, contemplates the development of an 800-seat concert hall. There could also be additional garden development and landscaping. However, as the timeframe for this phase is perhaps 2022 and beyond, no cost estimates have been developed.

5.2.3 Capital Project Funding

The funding model for the capital costs assumes $25.5 million will be raised from the private sector -- to be matched dollar for dollar by the Government of Canada and the Province of Ontario. In order to realize this goal, the campaign would begin soon after the feasibility study is approved by the boards of the TSO and NAC, and the concept has been endorsed by the Province of Ontario and Government of Canada. The focus of PN would then be to attract the professional and volunteer leadership to launch a successful capital campaign.


6. Staffing and Operating Plan

Here the Study describes the staffing and operating plan for Project Niagara. The text outlines the organizational structure of the festival (emphasizing in the process that Project Niagara is a separate entity, distinct from either the TSO or the NAC), describes the management and staffing structure for Project Niagara (with a summary of the major job functions of the key staff positions), and discusses the on-going involvement of the two orchestras (TSO and NACO) in terms of the arrangements to purchase services from them.

The information contained herein was developed through consultation with TSO and NAC staff, as well as through comparison and discussions with management staff at other festivals.

Key Findings and Conclusions • Project Niagara will be a separate entity from the Toronto Symphony Orchestra and the National Arts Centre, with its

own staff and Board; there will be no on-going financial arrangement between them other than that of the festival purchasing (at arm’s length) orchestral services from them.

• The organizational structure of Project Niagara is envisaged to have 5 departmental areas of responsibility reporting

to a President and C.E.O. These are (1) Artistic Programming, (2) Production and Operations, (3) Marketing and Communications, (4) Development (Fundraising) and (5) Finance and Administration. This structure may well be modified to suit the particular needs of the President and C.E.O. once hired (and/or the Board), but they do cover the essential functional areas required to run a festival of the sort envisaged here.

• A preliminary but reasonable estimate of the staffing complement required for Project Niagara (again, assuming that

all aspects of mounting the festival as well as operating the venue are undertaken by one entity) are for 33 staff (some essentially full-time positions by the first year of operations, some seasonal positions). In addition, contract and part-time staff will be required in the Festival season.

• A key aspect of operation of the Festival will be the arrangements between it and the two orchestras for their participation. While there are a number of areas to consider in developing an agreement, there are no insurmountable problems foreseen by management of TSO and NACO. It is premature, however, at this stage to try to guess the specifics of the arrangement.

6.1 Organization Structure of the Festival

What is presented here is a possible and reasonable structure, broadly modeled on the functional organization seen in other Festivals. The Board and senior management team of Project Niagara, once in place, would tailor this organization to address the needs of the Festival as they saw it.

The President and C.E.O. would be responsible for overall leadership, coordination and management, reporting to the Board. The Senior Management Team would be comprised of several key functions, all direct reports to the President and C.E.O... These broad functional areas would be:

• Music Director responsible for Artistic Programming

• Director of Production and Operations

• Director of Marketing and Communications

• Director of Development

• Director of Finance and Administration


6.2 Management and Staffing of the Festival

The key responsibilities for each of the departmental areas are discussed below.

President and C.E.O.: This position embodies the leadership of Project Niagara. Key responsibilities will include coordination of the senior management team, liaison with the Board, involvement as appropriate with key donors and government representatives, and the overall stewardship of the Festival. In many respects this individual will be the “public face” of the Festival, which will inevitably reflect to some degree the charisma, personality, and style of the individual.

Music Director: This position is as important as the President and C.E.O. position. The Music Director will have overall responsibility for the creation of the festival program, relationships with artists, and the ancillary educational direction and community partnerships (insofar as they relate to the artistic vision). In summary, this individual is responsible for the artistic vision of the festival. Volunteer management is also put under the responsibility of this department for two reasons: 1) the message that volunteers are an integral factor in the festival’s ability to promulgate its artistic vision is a very positive one, and 2) this probably gives maximum exposure and cachet to the volunteer experience. (The reality is that volunteers will also be involved in a variety of other areas that will fall under the purview of other departments, so the practicality of this aspect of this department’s responsibility will need to be reviewed.)

Director of Marketing and Communications: The fundamental role of this department is to manage the brand identity and communication of Project Niagara to current and future audiences, and generate revenue from ticket and merchandise sales. Government relations will also fall to this Director, in support of the President and C.E.O.’s functions. Specific marketing functions include advertising campaign, public relations, travel trade relations, and internet marketing and social network relationship management. Retail operations (much of which will involve Project Niagara-branded merchandise) would be a responsibility of this department. Also included here are event ticketing, customer service, event programs, and the management of the Project Niagara web site.

Director of Production and Operations: This department has responsibility for all technical, maintenance, IT and telecommunications, and facility-related operations. There may in fact be four sub-divisions within this general area of responsibility: concert operations, grounds maintenance, buildings maintenance, and office operations - including human resources (HR).

Director of Development: Like every music festival, fundraising is clearly a major requirement for the sustainability of Project Niagara. The first initiative will be to run a $25.5 million capital campaign to secure the private sector funding to be matched by the Province and the Federal Government. Once the festival opens, there will be an annual $5 million campaign each season. Key functions here will include corporate sponsorship, key donor relations, and community and government liaison. Close cooperation with and involvement of the President / C.E.O., as well as Board members, will be a critical aspect of this office as well.

Director of Finance and Administration: Responsibilities here will include the smooth financial operation of the Festival including salary and payroll, revenue accounting, maintenance of the festival’s charitable status, preparation of the financial aspects of the annual report, and relations with the auditor.


The staff structure foreseen for the festival consists of 33 staff positions (excluding contract and part-time staff), as indicated in the chart below:

Area / Department Department Heads and Managers Other Staff

(including seasonal and part time) President / C.E.O. office

- President and C.E.O. - administrative assistant

Artistic Programming - Music Director - Artistic Administrator - Manager of Education and

Community Partnerships

- administrative assistant - artistic manager - education assistant - volunteer coordinator

Production and Operations - Director - Manager of IT - Manager of Facilities and

Maintenance - Manager, Grounds

- administrative assistant - production coordinator - stage manager - technician - building maintenance - housekeeping - part time staff per concert

Marketing and Communications

- Director - Marketing Manager - Manager, group/tour operators - Manager, retail operations manager

- administrative assistant - part time staff per concert

Development - Director - Associate Director: sponsorship - Associate Director: key donors

- administrative assistant - research and writing - database management - events management

Finance and Administration - Director - payroll / benefits manager - revenue accountant

Total 16 positions 18 positions,

plus seasonal and part time staff

6.3 Arrangements for Purchase of Service for the Orchestras

A key aspect of operations will be the arrangements for purchase of service from the Toronto Symphony Orchestra and the National Arts Centre Orchestra when they perform at Project Niagara. While it is premature at this point to specify the exact nature and shape of these arrangements, they will include consideration of the following items:

- compensation for services rendered for the concert itself, and directly-related costs

- travel arrangements and compensation for travel time

- accommodation arrangements

- meals and ancillary expenses

- transportation

- arrangements and negotiations with the various unions that would be involved

Preliminary discussions have been had with both staff at the TSO and the NACO, and it appears that all logistical and financial issues can be resolved.


7. Governance

Identified in this section of the Study are the main requirements and characteristics of the governance structure for Project Niagara, and an outline of the key steps to developing the Board that will run the festival.

Key Findings and Conclusions • This Phase 2 Feasibility Study has been prepared under the guidance of the C.E.O.s of the TSO and the NAC and

the Interim Board of Directors. Should PN move to a Development Phase, the Interim Board will be replaced by the founding PN Board of Directors.

• Project Niagara will be its own national cultural institution. This entity will be independent and separate from both

founding institutions; its relationship with the orchestras will be that of arm’s length purchaser of services for the summer festival.

• The C.E.O.s of the two organizations, who have been intimately involved with this initiative to this point, will continue

to advise the Interim Board until such time as either the C.E.O. is hired or the Founding Board is appointed.

• The C.E.O.s, or members of their Board of Directors, will sit on the Board of PN as ex-officio members to help ensure that programming and operating goals are achieved.

7.1 Role and Function of the Interim Advisory Board

While the senior management of the TSO and the NAC came together to initially develop the concept for Project Niagara (which was the first phase of the work) and assess its feasibility and sustainability (Phase 2), it was understood from the outset that Project Niagara would not be an offshoot or subsidiary of either or both of the founding organizations. Rather, it was envisaged that Project Niagara would be an entirely separate entity, with its own staff reporting to its own Board. Any relationship it would have in the longer term with the two orchestras would be purely a contractual one, with Project Niagara purchasing services from these two orchestras.

Throughout the course of the Phase 2 Feasibility Study, an ‘Interim Advisory Board’ comprised of members from the TSO and the NAC Boards (later augmented by key individuals from the Niagara Region) has provided a formal reporting framework, and has advised and assisted the consultants throughout the study.

The Interim Board is responsible to:

• Comment on the Phase 2 Feasibility Study and decide on the projects viability;

• Present its recommendation to the Boards of the TSO and the NAC, and seek their comments and endorsement;

• Present the Feasibility Study, as well as the comments of the three Boards, to the Provincial and Federal governments and seek their endorsement;

• Present the Feasibility Study and seek the endorsement of the three non-government and quasi-governmental funders: Falls Management, the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation, and the Niagara Economic Development Commission;

• Communicate the findings to the Niagara Region Council – either directly to Council or through the Regional Committee for Culture, Heritage and the Arts;

• Communicate the findings to the Town Council of Niagara-on-the-Lake; and

• Communicate the findings to regional Members of the Provincial and Federal Parliaments


The following chart presents a timetable for the initial activities:

Milestone Anticipated Timetable First, the Interim Advisory Board accepts and approves this feasibility study.

June 4, 2008

Second, the TSO Board of Directors endorses the feasibility study on the recommendation of the Interim Advisory Board.

June 10, 2008

Third, the NAC Board of Governors endorses the feasibility study on the recommendation of the Interim Advisory Board.

June 20, 2008

Fourth, the Interim Advisory Board seeks the endorsement of the Provincial and Federal governments and begins seeking funding for the Development Phase3.

after June 20th

There are three major functions that the Interim Board must address for the project to move from a Phase 2 Feasibility to a Phase 3 Development stage:

1. Identify and secure sources of funding for the Start-up Phase;

2. Identify and recruit new Chair (or co-Chairs), and new members of the Board; and

3. Begin process to recruit C.E.O., Start-up and Development Phase team;

7.2 Composition of the Founding Board

The National Arts Centre and the Toronto Symphony Orchestra will each retain ex officio membership on the new Board to help ensure the programming and operating goals are achieved.

The Board should be representative of both business and the arts, and of the local region, the province and the country.

7.3 Role of the Founding Board

The Founding Board will be responsible for the start-up of the festival entity, the capital project, and the opening season of the festival. It will then transition into a permanent board responsible for the continuing operation of the Festival.

The Development Phase includes the activities required to build and operationalize PN, including fundraising for the capital costs.


8. Operating Costs and Revenues / Financial Analysis

This section of the Study discusses the operating costs and revenues associated with the Festival, and covers the financial viability and sustainability of the venture. First, the key assumptions underlying costs in a typical year of operation are described. Next, the key revenue assumptions for various streams of annual revenue are presented. The net bottom line is calculated, and annual operating budgets are extrapolated for a 5-year period. Finally, the results of sensitivity analyses are presented, an overall assessment of risk undertaken, and a judgment as to the on-going sustainability of the festival is presented.

Cost and revenue assumptions in this section have been reviewed with management and staff at both the TSO and NAC, and have been cross-checked against operating cost ratios and norms at other festivals.

Key Findings and Conclusions • In these projections it is assumed that ‘Project Niagara’ is a single entity running both the festival as well as the

venue, incurring all operating costs as well as receiving all operating revenues associated with the facility. • In the fifth year of operation of the festival, operating costs are anticipated to be just over $20 million. • In the fifth year of operation, earned revenues are forecast at just under $16 million, about 80% of the cost of

operating the festival; this is on a par with other similar well-run festivals.

• An annual giving campaign that raises $5 million is anticipated, an amount deemed to be reasonable by the fundraising consultant and by comparison to more established music festivals (Ravinia, for example, raises $12 million in its Annual Giving Campaign).

• A forecast of the first 5 years of operation shows that Project Niagara is sustainable (assuming a conservative level of annual giving throughout the period at the $5 million level).

• A sensitivity (risk) analysis shows that Project Niagara is at moderate risk from costs escalating faster than revenues; from fluctuations of attendance (variations up to plus or minus 10% have relatively little impact on the fundamental economics of the venture), and from fluctuations in revenue. Even assuming a significantly higher level of cost, the annual giving required is still considerably less than that required at other festivals.

8.1 Operating Costs of the Festival

It is assumed for the purposes of this Study that Project Niagara is being run as a single entity: that is, one enterprise is running both the festival and managing the venue in which the festival is held. Moreover, as is outlined in Section 7 of this Study, this entity is separate and at arm’s length from both the TSO and the NAC.

Other key underlying assumptions are:

• Parks Canada will continue to own the land on which Project Niagara takes place, but will enter into a partnership with the festival in order for the two entities to upgrade and maintain the site.

• No debt repayment or costs are required; that is, the construction and capital costs associated with the development of the venue are covered through fundraising and government contributions, and that there is no ‘mortgage’ to service, or other debt service payments required.

• For simplicity, the cost structure assumes a festival attracting roughly 200,000 to just over 260,000 patrons per year based on a 50 concert season.


Costs for the festival will be incurred in seven areas:

1. Management and staffing – the costs of all aspects of managing the festival and the venue

2. Operating costs of the venue– all out of pocket costs associated with administering the operation including marketing, development (fundraising), insurance, and security.

3. Maintenance of the grounds and the facility – maintenance costs associated with the grounds (both the

intensively used area as well as the ‘parkland’) and the buildings

4. Costs of goods sold – reflecting the cost to the organization of purchasing the goods (souvenirs, food, etc.) sold at concerts or onsite

5. Cost of tickets sold – costs charged by the ticket sales agency (assumed that this service is contracted out

to an external agency)

6. Cost of the parking operations – As is generally the case with other festivals, it is assumed here that parking is revenue neutral, that is, that the costs will equal the revenues generated

7. Cost of concert productions – cost associated with the purchase of talent (which will include the TSO and

the NACO), rentals associated with each concert, and technical costs

The summary table below outlines these costs in the first year of operation. The following tables outline the specific assumptions made in each area in greater detail.

Cost Area Costs ($ millions) in the First Full Year of Operation

($ millions) Management and staffing (salaries, wages and benefits)

$3.519

Operating costs of the venue

$4.866

Maintenance of the grounds and the facility

$1.686

Costs of goods sold

$2.813

Cost of ticket operations

$0.250

Cost of the parking operations

$1.905

Cost of concert productions

$3.650

Total Operating Costs

$18.689


Project Niagara Cost Assumptions

Major Cost Centre

Specific Aspect Assumptions, typical year of operation Resulting

Annual Costs ($000)

A) President and C.E.O. - President C.E.O. - administrative assistant

$350

B) Music Director - Music Director - Artistic Administrator - two support staff

$400

C) Director of Production and Operations

- Director of Division - administrative assistant - 2 seasonal staff (production coordinator, stage

manager) - part time staff

$520

D) Marketing and Communications

- Director of Division - administrative assistant - 3 staff (marketing mgr., retail operations mgr.,

tour operations)

$420

E) Development - Director of Division - administrative assistant - 2 associate directors - 4 support staff

$650

F) Education and Community Partnerships

- Manager of Division - 2 support staff (administrative assistant,

volunteer coordinator) $200

G) Finance and Administration

- Director of Division - 2 staff (payroll & benefits manager, revenue

accountant) $210

H) Information Technology - assume one person and contracted help $150

A) Management and staffing costs associated with the venue

I) Facilities, Technical and Maintenance

- Manager of Division - 3 seasonal staff (technician, grounds manager,

housekeeping supervisor) $160

Management and staffing costs sub-total $3,060

Benefits @ 15% $459

Total Wages, Salaries & Benefits $3,519


A) Utilities and Energy Costs

- assume minimal heating, lighting in winter months and off-season

- assume triple this in 3 months of operating season

$90

B) Insurance - assume year round insurance on site $240 C) Security - assume year round security contract for site

- assume additional security per concert $360

D) Administrative Supplies - 5% of personnel budget $176 E) Marketing Budget - see section 4.2 of Study for detailed breakdown $2,500 F) Development Costs - assume reserve of $500,000 $500 G) C.E.O. / Music Director

Office Expenses - assume reserve of $500,000

$500

H) Education and Community Partnerships

- assume reserve of $300,000 $300

B) Operating Costs of Facility

I) Legal, audit, etc. - assume reserve of $200,000 $200 Facility operating costs sub-total $4,866

A) maintenance costs, park lands (low utilization)

maintenance costs for low maintenance parkland typically $1,000 per acre

assume approx. 50% of site is this use (say 100 acres)

$100

B) maintenance costs, public area (higher utilization)

maintenance costs for high-utilization parkland typically $5,000 per acre

assume 20% of site is this use (say 40 acres) $200

C) Maintenance of Grounds and Facility

C) maintenance costs on buildings

on-going maintenance costs can be 5 – 15% of original capital costs of facilities (less in early years for new facilities)

estimated as 3% of capital cost of buildings ($37.1 million) and equipment ($9.0 million) = $46.2 million

$1,386

Maintenance costs sub-total $1,686

A) cost of food assume expenditure on food / drink of $30 at Festival for those who purchase

assume 50% purchase (others bring own picnics assume 250,000 patrons average cost of food = 50%

$1,875

D) Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

B) cost of goods sold assume average per patron expenditure on merchandise of $5 at Festival

assume 250,000 patrons average cost of goods sold = 75%

$938

COGS sub-total $2,813

E) Cost of Ticket Operations - assume purchase of ticketing service from other arts provider

- average cost = $1 per ticket $250

F) Cost of Parking Operations assume costs = revenues (revenue neutral) note: includes cost of shuttle operation

$1,905

G) Cost of Concert Productions 50 concerts $60,000 per concert talent cost $10,000 per concert technical cost $3,000 per concert rentals

$3,650

TOTAL COSTS $18,689


8.2 Revenues in the First Year of Operation

Revenues in a typical year of operation will come from a number of sources. These are:

1. Ticket sales 2. Ancillary sales to guests (food and beverage, merchandise, etc.) 3. Parking revenues 4. Sponsorships and donations

The summary table below outlines these revenues in the first year of operation; the following tables outline the specific assumptions made in each area in greater detail.

Source of Revenue

Assumptions, First Year of Operations

Resulting Annual Revenues in First Full Year of

Operations ($000)

A) Ticket Sales - average ticket prices will be moderate ($30 per seat / attendee) – in keeping with the price philosophy articulated in Section 4

- assume 250,000 ticket sales over season

- this assumes 15% discount to allow for complimentary tickets, etc.

$7,500

B) Food, beverage, merchandise sales

- average guest expenditure on food and drink = $15 per visitor (50% of visitors purchase at $30 per person = $15 per person average)

- average guest expenditure on souvenir and other merchandise = $5

$5,000

C) Parking revenues

- assume 80% of visitors arrive by car

- assume 2.1 persons per vehicle (average seen at other festivals)

- assume $20 per vehicle parking fee (includes shuttle operation to Festival grounds)

$1,905

D) Donations and Sponsorships

- an annual donations target of $5 million is considered to be reasonable and achievable (see Section 10)

$5,000

Total Revenues $19,405

Thus revenues will be sufficient to cover operating costs. However, note that the earned revenues of the festival (from ticket sales, food service, etc.) will not cover the costs. Donations and sponsorship of $5 million through an annual giving campaign are necessary to sustain the festival. To put this into some context, the Annual Giving Campaign for the Ravinia Festival generated nearly $12 million (in 2006) from 1,100 individual donors (who collectively gave $6.4 million) and 200 corporate donors (who collectively gave $5.4 million). In the opinion of the fundraising consultant (Nicholas Offord; see Section 10 of the Study), $5 million should be an achievable target. Also, it is important to note that the staffing and operating plan places a strong emphasis upon fundraising, in order to generate the amounts that will be required.


8.3 Five-Year Operating Forecast

As outlined in Section 4 of this Study, there are two possible realities regarding the early years of a completely new festival of this type:

1) Attendance Surge in Year 1: Where attendance is high in the first year, reflecting the excitement and buzz surrounding the festival, but drops from this first-year peak in the second year, and builds back in following years.

2) Consistent Growth from Year 1: In this scenario, attendance starts more modestly with an ‘early adopter group’ and builds from there.

Regardless of which of these scenarios actually unfolds over time, the audience will likely be at the same order-of-magnitude level in the longer-term. (In the audience projections contained in Chapter 4, these two scenarios essentially converged in Year 5.)

The analysis below considers both approaches. For both scenarios, the following base assumptions have been applied:

• all dollar figures are expressed in terms of $2008 Canadian dollars

• a 2.5% per annum real cost escalator has been added to staffing, operations, maintenance, and production costs

• a 5% real price increase in ticket prices has been added in year 4, reflecting the building success and popularity of the Festival

Note: dollar figures rounded to nearest $000

Attendance Surge in Year 1

This chart assumes that after Year 1, attendance will dip slightly (by 10%) in Year 2. Year 3 sees some recovery (so that attendance in that year is only 5% lower than the first year’s peak). By year 4, attendance has regained its Year 1 level, and Year 5 sees some modest growth (5%) over Year 1 levels.

This scenario is shown below:

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Attendance 250,000 225,000 237,500 250,000 262,500 Revenues - ticket sales $7,500 $6,750 $7,125 $7,875 $8,269 - food, beverage,

merchandise $5,000 $4,500 $4,750 $5,000 $5,250 - parking $1,905 $1,714 $1,810 $1,905 $2,000 - annual giving

campaign $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 Total Revenues $19,405 $17,964 $18,685 $19,780 $20,519

Costs - staffing $3,519 $3,607 $3,697 $3,790 $3,884 - operations $4,866 $4,988 $5,112 $5,240 $5,371 - maintenance $1,686 $1,728 $1,771 $1,816 $1,861 - cost of goods sold $2,813 $2,532 $2,672 $2,813 $2,954 - cost of ticket sales $250 $225 $238 $250 $263 - parking costs $1,905 $1,714 $1,810 $1,905 $2,000


- production costs $3,650 $3,741 $3,835 $3,931 $4,029 Total Costs $18,689 $18,535 $19,135 $19,744 $20,362

Consistent Growth from Year 1

This chart assumes that Year 1 starts with somewhat lower attendance (225,000, as opposed to 250,000), and will grow at 4% per year as a result of success and positive word of mouth. This results in attendance in Year 5 that is essentially the same as seen in the first scenario. Thus the Festival ends up in the same place although arriving there from a different path.

This scenario is shown below:

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Attendance 225,000 234,000 243,000 253,000 263,000 Revenues - ticket sales $6,750 $7,020 $7,301 $7,972 $8,291 - food, beverage,

merchandise $4,500 $4,680 $4,867 $5,062 $5,264 - parking $1,714 $1,783 $1,854 $1,928 $2,005 - annual giving

campaign $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 Total Revenues $17,964 $18,483 $19,022 $19,963 $20,561

Costs - staffing $3,519 $3,607 $3,697 $3,790 $3,884 - operations $4,866 $4,988 $5,112 $5,240 $5,371 - maintenance $1,686 $1,728 $1,771 $1,816 $1,861 - cost of goods sold $2,532 $2,633 $2,738 $2,848 $2,962 - cost of ticket sales $225 $234 $243 $253 $263 - parking costs $1,905 $1,783 $1,854 $1,928 $2,005 - production costs $3,650 $3,741 $3,835 $3,931 $4,029

Total Costs $18,383 $18,714 $19,251 $19,805 $20,376

The greater shortfall in this scenario would imply greater pressure on fundraising and revenue generation efforts after the first year of operations. However this should be achievable given a) the fundraising feasibility analysis (see Chapter 10) which showed that the capacity for fundraising could be greater than the levels assumed here, and b) the fact that there will be some preparatory time to adjust efforts in both marketing and fundraising activities after year 1 (at which time it may be apparent which of these two scenarios best describes the development of the Festival’s audience.)

8.4 Sensitivity Analyses

A number of alternative scenarios to the five-year operating forecast outlined above were explored in order to determine the risk parameters for Project Niagara. These scenarios were:

A) attendance is 10% higher than in the base scenario above; all other assumptions remain the same B) attendance is 10% lower than in the base scenario C) attendance does not dip in Years 2 and 3 as in the base scenario (rather, it grows at 5% per year from

Year 1) D) costs are 10% higher than assumed in Year 1 of the base case scenario E) revenues are 10% higher than in Year 1 of the base case scenario

Rather than present the detailed results for all of these scenarios, the summary table below shows key parameters in Years 2 and 5: the total revenues for the festival in that year, and gap between earned revenues and total costs. For reference, the ‘Attendance Surge in Year 1’ scenario was used in this sensitivity analysis. As mentioned, this converges in terms of attendance with the ‘Consistent Growth from Year 1’ scenario in Year 5 of operations.


This sensitivity (risk) analysis shows that Project Niagara is at moderate risk from escalating costs; fluctuations of up to plus or minus 10% in attendance, costs or revenues have relatively little impact on the fundamental economics of the venture. In all scenarios, the gap between earned revenues and total costs varies between $4 million to nearly $7 million, a range that is reckoned to be within the capacity of the sponsorship and donations environment according to the fundraising consultant. Further, in all scenarios except that where costs are 10% higher, the gap narrows to some extent over the 2 to 5 year period.

Year 2 of Operations Year 5 of Operations

Scenario Total Revenues

(millions)

Gap: Total costs less Earned Revenues ($ millions)

Total Revenues (millions)

Gap: Total costs less Earned Revenues ($ millions)

BASE CASE (as in Section 8.3)

$17.964 $5.571 $20.519 $4.843

A) Attendance 10% Higher

$19.261 $4.468 $22.021 $3.517

B) Attendance 10% Lower

$16.668 $6.673 $18.967 $6.168

C) Attendance Grows by 5% from Year 1

$20.195 $4.155 $22.965 $3.219

D) Costs 10% Higher than Base Scenario

$19.405 $6.153 $20.519 $6.653

E) Revenues 10% Higher than Base Scenario

$19.261 $4.446 $22.084 $3.478


9. Economic Impact Analysis

This part of the Study deals with the economic impact of the festival.

In addition to the quantitative and measurable benefits referenced above, also examined was the impact of the festival as a catalyst and stimulant to development on the area in general, drawing by analogy upon other festivals and similar operations.

The Ontario Ministry of Tourism’s TREIM economic impact model, specifically designed for tourism-related projects, was used to calculate economic impacts of both construction and operations. The use and operation of the model has been discussed with Ministry of Tourism Officials (in IDO, the Investment Development Office) as well as with the officials at the Region of Niagara Economic Development Corporation.

Key Findings and Conclusions • The $76.5 million construction project will generate $106 million in various types of additional economic activity in

the Province of Ontario.

• The annual economic impact of operation of the Festival (in its fifth year of operation) comes from both the

expenditures of the festival itself as well as the expenditures of visitors. In year 5, festival operations will generate $93 million in various types of additional economic activity in the Province of Ontario.

• In addition to the quantitative estimates of economic impact, the festival will act as a catalyst in changing the perception of the Niagara Region, and stimulating further development in accommodation, retail activities and restaurants, other attractions, and infrastructure (the so-called ‘Bilbao effect’).


9.1 Economic Impact Model Utilized: TREIM

The economic impact model used in this assessment was specifically created by the Ontario Ministry of Tourism for use in modeling the benefits associated with tourism developments in the Province. Known as the Tourism Regional Economic Impact Model (TREIM), it enables the assessment of the economic impacts of a given development at the level of the Province overall, or at a regional level (i.e., the Region of Niagara).

Economic impact analysis essentially examines the positive effects created in an area as a result of an injection of new expenditure. New expenditure in an economy – provincially or regionally – is in turn re-spent on goods and services within the jurisdiction under consideration, and several rounds of expenditure take place before the effect dissipates. (This dissipation takes place eventually as inevitably some goods and services are purchased from outside the area under consideration, and the purchasing power ‘leaks away’ elsewhere.) Economic impact analysis is a methodology of tracking and measuring these successive rounds of expenditure in order to determine the total value of the economic benefit that a new tourism development creates in an area.

TRIEM considers three types of new expenditure in an economy. These are:

1) the construction of a new facility, which tends to be a one-time injection of investment into a region, over a defined period of time (which may be more than one year, as will certainly be the case in Project Niagara);

2) the operations of the new venture, in terms of its purchase of employment, goods and services in the

jurisdiction under consideration. The economic impacts of these operations of the business tend to occur year after year, and are thus typically measured on an annual basis; and

3) the expenditures of visitors who are either drawn into the area where they otherwise would not have visited

(so-called ‘destination visitors’) or those who are already in the area but who extend their stay (and resulting expenditure) for some period of time as a result of the new attraction or development.

Importance of incrementality – Properly undertaken, economic impact analysis is scrupulous about measuring only new (incremental) expenditure taking place in the region under consideration as a result of a new tourism attraction, in order to ensure that only economic activity that can be said to be directly caused by the new development is considered. Otherwise, economic activity that would take place in any event (i.e., regardless of whether or not the new attraction is built) would be attributed to that project, thus giving an inflated estimate of the benefits accruing to the area as a result of the development. Accordingly, this assessment has strictly estimated only the new or incremental injections of expenditure created by Project Niagara. Benefits measured – There are several measures of economic benefit calculated by TRIEM; the ones of greatest focus in this assessment are:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): a measure of the total value of all goods and services that are produced within the jurisdiction under consideration, measured at current market prices, which is associated with the initial injection of expenditure. A common way of understanding GDP is the total amount of ‘wealth’ that is produced in an economy, so in economic impact analysis this is the total amount of wealth created in the area as a result of the injection of expenditure.

• Employment: the total number of jobs, measured in full-time job equivalents (FTJEs), associated with the

total GDP created. This accounts for full and part-time work, seasonal employment, and self-employed.

• Labour income: the total amount of income associated with the aforementioned employment

• Taxes: associated with all rounds of expenditure, estimated at the federal, provincial and municipal levels

Geographical areas of interest – TREIM allows two levels of analysis to be calculated: one at the provincial level (i.e., Ontario) and the other at a regional level (in this case, the Region of Niagara). The following analysis examines impacts at both levels.


9.2 Economic Impact of the Construction Project

As earlier outlined, the total value of the construction project is anticipated to be on the order of $76.5 million (see Section 5 of this Study). TREIM estimates the economic impact of a construction project of this order of magnitude as follows:

Impacts In the Region of Niagara Total Impacts in the Province GDP ($ millions) $34.425 $48.979 Employment (jobs – FTJE) 346 500 Labour Income ($ millions) $21.851 $31.803 All Taxes ($ millions) $19.745 $25.346

One point to bear in mind when interpreting these numbers: the $76.5 million construction project in the Region is spread out over several years. Thus, for example, the table above implies that the construction project overall will generate 459 person-years of employment in Ontario, which will be associated with a wages and salaries earnings of just over $30 million. These, however, are not annual estimates – they are one-time impacts, spread out over the life of the construction project.

9.3 Economic Impact of Operations

Because the two scenarios regarding development of the audience essentially converge in Year 5 (with attendance of 262,000 in that year), that has been selected as the benchmark year to examine the economic impact of the operation of Project Niagara.

9.3.1 Economic Impact of Operations (Expenditures) of the Festival Itself in the Fifth Year of Operation

On an on-going operating basis, the costs associated with running the Project Niagara festival will create economic benefit in the Province and Region. The festival will purchase labour, goods and services from suppliers in the Region and in the rest of the Province. Section 6 of this Study outlines the staffing and operating plan for the festival. The table below re-caps the estimates of operating costs in the fifth year of operations (for illustrative purposes the first scenario [‘Attendance Surge in Year 1’] is used; the operating costs do not differ materially from those in the ‘Consistent Growth from Year 1’ scenario).

Operating Costs, Year 5 ($ millions) Management and staffing $3.884 Out-of-pocket administrative costs $5.371 Grounds and facility maintenance $1.861 Costs of goods sold $2.954 Cost of Ticket Sales $0.263 Cost of parking operations $2.000 Programming costs $4.029 Total Operating Budget, Year 1 $20.362


Running this operating cost estimate through TREIM generates the following calculations of impact:


9.3.2 Economic Impact of Visitor Expenditure in the Fifth Year of Operation

From Additional Expenditures of Patrons: As shown in the analysis in Section 4, some of the patrons to Project Niagara would not have visited the Niagara Region had it not been for the international music festival. (These are identified as ‘destination visitors’). Other visitors to the festival will be those who are in the area anyway, or for whom the festival was one of a number of factors that drew them to the Region. In terms of estimating the additional expenditure from visitors as a result of Project Niagara, all of the expenditures of the former group can be considered as being incremental (as they would not have visited the Region at all but for the festival). For others, it can be reasonably assumed that some percentage will lengthen their stay in the Region to accommodate a visit to the festival, while others may substitute a visit to Project Niagara for some other activity. For this latter group, it is appropriate to estimate the proportion that will stay some extra length of time, and the additional (i.e. incremental) expenditure that they will spend in the Region during this longer period.

The table below shows the estimated incremental expenditure for the destination visitors in the fifth year of operations of Project Niagara:

A New Destination

Attendance to the Region as a Result of Project Niagara (see

Section 4)

B Average Trip

Expenditure of Existing Visitors

from this Segment*

C Assumed

Expenditure of Project Niagara

Visitors**

D Total

Estimated Expenditure ($millions) (= A * C)

Canada 34,000 $272 $400 $13.600 US 17,000 $255 $375 $6.375 International 1,000 $405 $600 $0.600

Total 52,000 - - $20.575

* from Ontario Ministry of Tourism, Profile for Niagara Region, 2006 **higher expenditure of the high-value cultural tourists estimated at approximately 50% more than for regular visitors to Niagara (i.e., expenditure shown in Column B)

In addition to the expenditures of these destination visitors, the expenditures of regular visitors who extend their stay by some measure are also incremental expenditures, and result in additional economic benefit to the Region. The table below shows the estimated incremental expenditure for these regular visitors. (Note that the estimates of the additional length of stay in the Region, as well as the assumed daily expenditure, are deemed to be reasonable estimates at this point. Actual monitoring of these amounts during the festival will provide more accurate [and likely larger, as these figures are probably conservative] figures.)


A Non-Destination

Visitors to Project Niagara (see Section 4)

B % that will extend

their Length of Stay by 1 day on

average

C Assumed Daily Expenditure of Project Niagara

Visitors

D Total

Estimated Expenditure ($millions)

(= A * B * C) Canada 173,300 20% $100 $3.466 US 35,400 30% $150 $1.593 International 1,300 40% $200 $0.104

Total 210,000 - - $5.163 Thus together the additional expenditure of tourists in Year 1 of operation of Project Niagara is expected to be on the order of $25.8 million ($20.6 million from destination visitors, and $5.2 million from the additional length of stay of other visitors to the Region). Running this additional expenditure in the Region through the TREIM model generates the following estimates of economic impact:


9.3.3 Total Economic Impact of Operations in the Fifth Year

The ‘operations of the festival’ and the ‘expenditure of visitors’ are two separate injections of expenditure into the provincial and regional economy, and thus their impacts can be added to obtain an estimate of total economic impact in the first year of operations of the festival. The tables below do this for the Province and the Region respectively from the fifth year of operation of the Festival.

Provincial-Level Economic Impacts

Impacts from Festival Operations, Year 5

Impacts from Visitor Expenditures, Year 5

Total Economic Impact from

Operations, Year 5 GDP ($ millions) $18.808 $24.213 $43.021 Employment (jobs – FTJE) 362 345 707 Labour Income ($ millions) $13.757 $15.546 $29.303 All Taxes ($ millions) $8.598 $12.781 $21.379

Region-Level Economic Impacts Impacts from Festival

Operations, Year 1 Impacts from Visitor Expenditures, Year 1

Total Economic Impact from

Operations, Year 1 GDP ($ millions) $16.077 $19.167 $35.244 Employment (jobs – FTJE) 330 304 634 Labour Income ($ millions) $11.822 $12.027 $24.029 All Taxes ($ millions) $7.495 $10.778 $18.273


9.4 Catalytic Effect of the Festival upon Development and Investment

In addition to these quantitative impacts of the construction and operation of Project Niagara, there is another aspect of economic benefit to be considered. This is the extent to which a major new initiative, such as the international music festival being considered here, can act as a catalyst for the development of new infrastructure and support facilities in the Region. Less quantitative in nature, and much more dependent upon branding and buzz, a major new cultural facility (and especially one that results in an iconic or innovative facility being created) can usher in a wave of new interest and investment in an area.

Known as the ‘Bilbao effect’ after the new Guggenheim Museum built in the formerly declining manufacturing city of Bilbao in Spain, this phenomenon describes the wave of new development that is frequently drawn into an area as a result of a major new cultural initiative or development taking place. The mechanism appears to be that the brand image and identity of an area is turned around, or enhanced in a major way, as a result of an iconic new cultural development, which acts as a signal that the region has turned a corner of some kind. The development of the new cultural facility is accompanied by (in some cases preceded by) a host of new developments: accommodation, restaurants, retail shops, other attractions, etc. Beautification schemes for the downtowns and areas adjacent to the new attraction are implemented. And a buzz of interest and information is created.

Examples of the Bilbao effect are:

• Bilbao itself, where the Gehry-designed Guggenheim Museum has led a wave of intense development in the city, and almost single-handedly turned the local and regional economy around. Investment in tourism-related development in the area is reckoned to be many times the original investment in the museum.

• the Bethel Woods Centre for the Performing Arts, where the $70 million investment in the Centre itself has resulted in at least this amount of additional investment in the development of new residential areas, shopping facilities and restaurants, etc.

• other cities which have experienced urban revitalization from cultural development include Seattle and Phoenix (new libraries), Glasgow (major improvements and upgrading of cultural facilities), Valencia, Vienna, and Denver.

The Region of Niagara (and especially Niagara-on-the-Lake, where the preferred site is located) is certainly not in need of the same order of revitalization as were some of the examples above. However, as has been demonstrated elsewhere in this study, the typical tourist to the Region of Niagara has historically tended to be a relatively short-stay, lower-expenditure type of visitor. Project Niagara, operating in concert with other high end venues like the Shaw Festival, the wine tours, the casino and its high-end entertainment, can help to change that pattern, and act in turn as a catalyst for more higher-end development of this type.


10. Fundraising Plan

In this section of the Study, the fundraising plan is outlined. There are two key questions addressed at this point: 1) is it feasible to raise the amounts required to build and develop Project Niagara as envisaged; and 2) is it feasible to raise the amounts required to meet the operating cost of the festival on an on-going, sustainable basis (i.e., through an annual giving campaign)? The fundraising consultancy The Offord Group addressed these issues.

Key Findings and Conclusions • While a challenging environment for fundraising is foreseen generally in southern Ontario over the next decade, it is

realistic to raise $25 to $30 million in a capital campaign from the private sector for a unique and innovative undertaking such as Project Niagara. (The arts sector is the fastest-growing sector of the philanthropic market and the baby boom cohort is just entering its peak giving years.)

• Raising this amount is predicated upon finding a fundraising champion who is prepared to lead with a major gift as

well as his or her own persuasive influence. • As well, it was considered realistic to raise $5 million in an annual giving fund that would help subsidize the festival;

this is predicated upon the assumption that a C.E.O. with a strong fundraising orientation will be hired. • The fundraising efforts for Project Niagara will not cannibalize the existing and on-going fundraising efforts of the TSO

or the NAC to any significant effect; rather it will appeal to a new base of donors and philanthropists.

10.1 Overall Fundraising Parameter

The overall fundraising parameter anticipated for a project of this magnitude would be that contributions on the capital side would be one-third from the federal government, one-third from the provincial government, and one-third from the corporate and private sectors. This is consistent with other major fundraising campaigns for cultural facilities in recent years.

10.2 Relevant Fundraising Trends

There are several significant fundraising trends that will influence the reality of being able to raise the amounts required for the private sector contribution to Project Niagara. These are:

on the positive side:

• The outlook generally for philanthropy to the arts and culture sector is positive: the baby boom generation is entering its peak giving years, and there is ample evidence that this cohort, as it ages, becomes more interested and active in arts and culture activities.

• Philanthropy to the arts sector in Canada is large and growing quickly: donations nationally in 2005 were $817 million (most recent figure available) and are growing at a rate in excess of 10% per annum.

however:

• Donors are becoming more selective: they are making bigger gifts but affiliating with fewer priorities. This makes for greater competition between campaigns – the top 2% of charities (mostly established and well-known organizations) raise close to 50% of all funds raised in Canada. It may be challenging for new projects to enter the market.


implications:

• A successful capital campaign for Project Niagara will depend upon building awareness and creating positive brand identity.

• Equally important will be a fundraising champion not already affiliated with a cultural institution who is prepared to lead with a major gift as well as persuasive influence among his or her own high-level networks.

• This individual will need to work in tandem with a President and C.E.O. who is equally committed to fundraising, and a senior Director of Development.

So while the fundraising environment will be challenging, it is definitely feasible and realistic to raise the target amount. A project as innovative and exciting as Project Niagara should be as desirable as any arts or cultural fundraising project in Canada - the premiere project of its kind.

10.3 Target Sector and Donation Opportunities

The primary target sector for fundraising will be high net worth individuals in Toronto, the Niagara Region, and elsewhere in Canada and in the U.S. (In Toronto, there are an estimated 14,000 individuals with invested net worth of $5 million or more.) The Offord Group estimates that, at the end of the capital fundraising campaign, there may be a total of 100 individual, foundation and corporate donors having made significant contributions.

Part of a successful appeal to donors will be making a variety of funding opportunities available: naming rights for lead gifts, secondary naming rights for components of the facility, exclusive supplier opportunities, etc.

10.4 Sequence of Events

All successful fundraising initiatives are dependant upon the right mix of compelling cause, outstanding volunteer leadership, competent management, engaged donors, and an effective communications strategy. In particular, to achieve its fundraising objective, Project Niagara requires:

• A professional management team focused on relationships with potential funders.

• Volunteer leaders from the Niagara Region, GTA, and across Canada that have the access and influence to lead a major campaign, and to set an example through leadership philanthropy.

• Federal, Provincial, and Regional funding commitments need to be in place to build confidence and credibility in the project and to leverage philanthropy.

• A C.E.O. whose initial focus is fundraising and marketing the project to potential funders.

• Donor cultivation, recognition, and stewardship programs.

• A robust Gift Acceptance, Naming, Investment and Stewardship policy framework.

Accordingly, major recommendations to get the campaign underway are:

Governance /Volunteer Leadership:

• Develop the Interim Advisory Board into a Founding Board and recruit an outstanding Chair (or Co-Chairs) to lead the governance and the project.

• Incorporate the Project Niagara entity.

• Secure requisite seed funding for the start-up to fund the engagement of a C.E.O.

• Hire a C.E.O. who will focus on operational planning, the capital campaign, and government relations.


Management:

• Prepare strategic plan, artistic and operational plans.

• Develop the Case for Support and communications strategy.

• Lead a broader exercise in cultivating and testing the interest of philanthropic leadership in all potential markets

• Develop a detailed fundraising plan and recruit fundraising support staff as required.

10.5 Separation of Project Niagara Fundraising from Fundraising Activities of the Founding Institutions

A final important point to stress is that the fundraising for Project Niagara – start-up, capital, and on-going annual campaigns - must be, in fact and perception, separate from, and in addition, to the fundraising for the NAC and the TSO. It must be, and must be seen to be, unrelated to the fundraising in which the two institutions engage. This follows from the fact that the trustee ownership/governance and management of Project Niagara are entirely separate from the two entities that will have assisted it at its inception.

The fundraising consultancy believes that Project Niagara does have the potential to generate its own fundraising without cannibalizing either the TSO or the NAC. This is because of three factors:

a) It is sufficiently distant from the home locations of the other two orchestras that it will be seen to be a distinct entity in a different region;

b) It is a new and quite different venue (compared to a closed concert venue), offering the opportunity for sponsors to ‘get in on the ground floor’ of something quite exciting; and

c) Its program will be more varied than the fare at a regular orchestral venue. For these reasons, it is expected that Project Niagara can attract a largely new donor base, and not subtract to any significant extent from the current donor base at the established orchestras (nor impede the growth of the home donor base in each case). In fact, some overall stimulation may well occur.


11. Project Timetable

This section of the Study details a project timeline, activities and start up costs for these inter-related tasks. There are several streams of activity that must take place between now and 2012 if Project Niagara is to become a reality. Some of this must start immediately.

11.1 Critical Path of All Activities

Clearly there are some key milestones on the critical path for this project if the facility is to open in 2012. The table below positions some of these key milestones.

Activity Stream 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1. Completion of

the Phase 2 Feasibility Study

- Phase 2 feasibility study complete (June)

2. .Seek approval in principle of Interim Board, TSO Board and NAC Board

-June

3. Seek endorsement and funding from Provincial and Federal Governments

- July

4. Embark on Regional and NOTL specific communications activities (see section 3.B of Study)

- Communication of Phase 2 Feasibility Study findings and Plans for Development Phase - Public consultations - Development of Project Niagara Public Relations Commission - Build local awareness and support

5.Work with Region on infrastructure issues (see section 3.B of Study)

- Conduct traffic study to model impact of PN on Region roads - Work with region to decommission the Sewage Lagoons - Work on other infrastructure issues as they arise

6. Board Development (e.g., Chair) (see section 7 of Study)

- Transition from Interim Board to Founding Board (complete by Dec.)

7. Recruit and hire President/C.E.O.

- recruit President/C.E.O.

- C.E.O. begins work


8. Administrative and Operations Planning (see section 6 of Study)

- C.E.O. / Board hires key positions in artistic programming, development, marketing

- staffing and operations plan developed for 2010 and 2011

- additional staff brought on stream, and activities undertaken as required

8. Fundraising (see Section 10 of Study)

- create fundraising plan

- secure lead gift(s) for project itself

- hire Director of Development to manage fundraising campaign

- continue on-going fundraising activities

- continue on-going fundraising activities (capital campaign, as well as first annual donor campaign)

9. Marketing and Promotion (see section 4 of Study)

- media relations

- hire Director of Marketing to spearhead on-going marketing activities

- continue media relations

- brand identity development

- web site development

- pre-event planning

- partnership building

- printing and distribution of collateral materials

- brand identity development complete

- continue other marketing activities in previous year activities

- begin travel trade activities

- continue on-going marketing activities

- plan public relations activities around launch of first season of festival

- begin initial audience research (baseline)

- continue on-going marketing activities

10. Site Preparation (see Section 3A of Study)

- site rehabilitation work (DND portion) has begun and is on-going

- Environmental Assessment (EA) on relocation of sewage lagoons issue ongoing

- final determination of infrastructure costs on site

- sewage lagoon relocation begins

- site rehabilitation work complete

- sewage lagoon relocation complete

11. Project Construction (see Section 5 of Study)

- construction begins

- construction continues

- construction complete by spring in time for June opening

OPENING DAY - inaugural concert in June 2012

Operating Costs Between Now and Opening Day

Start up costs in the order of $3 million per year for four years - between the beginning of the Development Phase and the Inaugural concert in June 2012 are anticipated. PN will seek base funding from both the Provincial and Federal governments to cover start up costs.


12. Conclusion

“Niagara-on-the-Lake and the International Summer Music Festival – good communication made great neighbours” Municipal World Magazine, 2009

“Luminato, Shaw, Project Niagara, Stratford Shakespeare Festival, Toronto International Film Festival” – Four months of non-stop world-class entertainment – Summer has never been so much fun!” Toronto Star, April 2012

“1812 Overture marks 200 years of peace and friendship at international festival” New York Times, July 2012

“Where Shaw met Mahler” The Times of London, May 2014

“Music, Theatre, Wine and Heritage - How culture re-shaped an economy”

The Economist, May 2017

What began as the stunning realization that we, as Canadians, had missed the opportunity to promote our own, and bring the world’s attention to our young country’s musical maturity, has blossomed into a strategy for transformation and growth for the region of Niagara, the Province of Ontario, and Canada as a whole.

By examining what was already there – the falls, the Shaw, the burgeoning wine industry, the exciting history, the quality of food and accommodations, the natural beauty that isn’t just a backdrop but rather a constant pleasure to experience – a cultural corridor was defined. And now, by adding one additional internationally prestigious anchor in the form of an international summer music festival, that corridor could be re-invented. The sum of the parts, brought harmoniously together, will be greater than the whole.

project niagara - phase 2 feasibility study · project niagara canada’s music garden phase 2...

Documents