projected climate change impacts for rhode island’s coast: a summary of the science
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change Impacts for Rhode Island’s Coast: A Summary of the Science
Staying Afloat: Adapting Waterfront Businesses to Rising Seas and Extreme Storms2014 Ronald C. Baird Sea Grant Science Symposium
Dec. 10. 2014
Austin BeckerAsst. Professor of Coastal Planning, Policy, and Design
University of Rhode Island
Relative Sea Level Change Projections - Gauge: 8452660, Newport, RI(05/01/2014)
USACE/NOAA LowRateUSACE Int, NOAAInt LowNOAA Int High RateUSACE High RateNOAA High Rate
20102020
20302040
20502060
20702080
20902100
21102120
0
2
4
6
8
10
Year
RSL
C in
feet
(NAV
D88
)
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Overview
• Recent high‐water events around RI–2010 floods–Sandy–A 2014 moon tide
• Historical trends• Climate change projections• STORMTOOLS inundation maps
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2010 – Warwick Sewage Treatment Plant
3Credit: RIDOT
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2010 –Warwick Showcase Cinemas
4Credit: RIDOT
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2010 – Warwick Mall
5Credit: RIDOT
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2010 – I‐95 Warwick
6Credit: RIDOT
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2010 ‐ Traffic
7Credit: RIDOT
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October 29, 2013
Sandy – Wickford
Credit: Melissa Devine
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Sandy – Matunuck
9Credit: Melissa DevineOctober 29, 2013
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Sandy – Narragansett
10Credit: CRCOctober 29, 2013
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Sandy – Westerly
11Credit: CRCOctober 29, 2013
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Sandy – Block Island
12Credit: RIDOTOctober 29, 2013
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NK Town Dock‐ August 13, 2014; Photo Credit: M.Devine
2014 – High Tide North Kingstown
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NK Town Dock‐ August 13, 2014; Photo Credit: M.Devine
2014 – High Tide Wickford
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NK Town Dock‐ August 13, 2014; Photo Credit: M.Devine
2014 – High Tide Wickford
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NK Town Dock‐ August 13, 2014; Photo Credit: M.Devine
2014 – High Tide in Wickford
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Historic storm surge heights in PVD
Name Date Cat $ Damage Surge height above MLLW
1938 9/21/38 ? 100 17.51944 9/14/44 ? 2 11.7Carol 8/31/54 3 90 16.5Gloria 9/27/85 2 20 9Bob 8/21/91 2 115 10
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HEIGHT NOW
Adapted from: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/
sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8452660%20Newport,%20RIBoothroyd 2013
Rate of Rise 1930-201310.8 +/- .7 inch/100 yr
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Relative Sea Level Change Projections - Gauge: 8452660, Newport, RI(05/01/2014)
USACE/NOAA LowRateUSACE Int, NOAAInt LowNOAA Int High RateUSACE High RateNOAA High Rate
20102020
20302040
20502060
20702080
20902100
21102120
0
2
4
6
8
10
Year
RS
LC in
feet
(NA
VD
88)
http://www.corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm
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Sea Level is Rising Fasteralong the Northeast US Coast
Figure 1 from Hotspot of accelerated sea‐level rise on the Atlantic coast of North AmericaAsbury Sallenger et al., 2012 Nature Climate Change doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1597
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21Giuliano, Lenny and Valee, David Unpublished Working Pape
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Frequency: Large uncertainties remain. Some computer models indicate either reduction (Knutson et al (2013) or increase in TC frequency (Emanuel, 2013). We have very low confidence in projected changes in individual basins.
Tropical Cyclone Projections Due to Climate Change
Intensity: The frequency of the most intense (rare/high‐impact) storms will more likely than not increase by a substantially larger percentage in some basins (Knutson et al (2013), Emanuel (2013), Bender et al (2010).
Rainfall: Rates are likely to increase. The projected magnitude is on the order of +20% (Knutson et al. (2013), Bender et al (2013)
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Climate change challenges
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Doubling of Cat 4 and 5 tropical storms
Inland flooding
1‐in‐100 year storm event of today
1‐in‐3 year storm event of 2100
Sea levels to rise 0.75 – 1.9 meters by 2100
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http://www.cargolaw.com/2008nightmare_jaxcrane.html
Photograph: Guy Reynolds/Dallas Morning News/AP
(Bender et al. 2010; Grinsted et al. 2013; Rahmstorf 2010; Emanuel 2013; IPCC 2012; Tebaldi et al. 2012)
Relative Sea Level Change Projections - Gauge: 8452660, Newport, RI(05/01/2014)
USACE/NOAA LowRateUSACE Int, NOAAInt LowNOAA Int High RateUSACE High RateNOAA High Rate
20102020
20302040
20502060
20702080
20902100
21102120
0
2
4
6
8
10
Year
RSL
C in
feet
(NAV
D88
)
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STORM TOOLS Simplified Flooding Web Based Mapping Viewer Access
http://edc.maps.arcgis.com/home/Type in “scaled SLR” in the search window to connect
to the maps
•25, 50, 100 year recurrence (probability) of flooding based on historic record•High Tides plus 1,2,3, 5 foot SLR•Storm events plus 2’ of SLR
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Barrington, 100 Acre Cove: 100 Year Flood, 5’ SLR
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STORM TOOLS Simplified Flooding Web Based Mapping Viewer Access
http://edc.maps.arcgis.com/home/Type in “scaled SLR” in the search window to connect
to the maps
Contacts for STORM TOOLS:
Chris Damon, URI Environmental Data Center, [email protected]
Malcolm Spaulding, URI Ocean Engineering, [email protected]
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Austin [email protected]
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With thanks to: Isaac Ginnis, Malcolm Spaulding, Jon Boothroyd, Clara Rubin, Pam Rubinoff, Teresa Crean
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21st Century Climate Warming Projected Changes in Atlantic Hurricane Frequency
Colored bars show changes for the18 model CMIP3 ensemble (27 seasons); dots show range of changes across 4 individual CMIP models (13 seasons).
Cat 4+5 frequency: 81% increase, or 10% per decade
Source: Bender et al., Science, 2010.
Estimated net impact of these changes on damage potential: +28%
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36MOMS‐ Cat 4 storm with 1.52m (5 ft) tides (SLR)
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PetroleumFacilities
WastewaterTreatment Plant
LPGFacility