projected performance development. top 500 performance projection
TRANSCRIPT
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Projected Performance Development
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TOP 500 Performance Projection
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
N=1
N=500
SUM
1 Gflop/s
1 Tflop/s
100 Mflop/s
100 Gflop/s
100 Tflop/s
10 Gflop/s
10 Tflop/s
1 Pflop/s
10 Pflop/s
1 Eflop/s100 Pflop/s
DARPA HPCS
BlueGene/L
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The Exponential Growth of Computing, 1900-1998
Hollerith Tabulator
Bell Calculator Model 1
ENIAC
IBM 704
IBM 360 Model 75Cray 1
Pentium II PC
Adapted from Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines
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The Exponential Growth of Computing, 1900-2100
Adapted from Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines
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Growth of Computing Power and “Mental Power”
Hans Moravec, CACM 10, 2003, pp 90-97
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Why this simplistic view is wrong
• Unsuitability of Current Architectures– Teraflop systems are focused on excelling in
computing; only one of the six (or eight) dimensions of human intelligence
• Fundamental lack of mathematical models for cognitive processes
– That’s why we are not using the most powerful computers today for cognitive tasks
• Complexity limits– We don’t even know yet how to model
turbulence, how then do we model thought?
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“The computer model turns out not to be helpful in explaining what people actually do when they think and perceive”Hubert Dreyfus, pg.189
Example: one of the biggest success stories of machine intelligence, the chess computer “Deep Blue”, did not teach us anything about how a chess grandmaster thinks.
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Six Dimensions of Intelligence
1. Verbal-Linguistic ability to think in words and to use language to express and appreciate complex concepts
2. Logical-Mathematical makes it possible to calculate, quantify, consider propositions and hypotheses, and carry out complex mathematical operations
3. Spatial capacity to think and orientate in physical three-dimensional environment
4. Bodily-Kinesthetic ability to manipulate objects and fine-tune physical skills
5. Musical sensitivity to pitch, melody, rhythm, and tone
6. Interpersonal capacity to understand and interact effectively with others
Howard Gardner. Frames of Mind: The Theory of Multiple Intelligences. New York: Basic Books, 1983, 1993.
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Current State of Supercomputers
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Retina to VisualCortex Mapping
http://cgl.elte.hu/~racz/santafe.html
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Building New Models
• About 1/3 of human brain is probably dedicated towards processing of visual information
• We have only very rudimentary knowledge of the principles for human vision computing
• Research project by Don Glaser at UC Berkeley investigates mapping from retina to visual cortex
• Attempt to model “optical illusions” and simple movement of objects in the visual cortex
• Current models limited to about 10**5 neurons• Supercomputer project at NERSC in 2005
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Fourth Observation about CSE
4. There are vast areas of science and engineering where CSE has not even begun to make an impact
– current list of CSE applications is almost the same as 15 years ago
– current set of architectures is capturing only a small subset of human cognitive abilities
– in many scientific areas there is still an almost complete absence of computational models
See also: Y. Deng, J. Glimm, and D. H. Sharp, Perspectives on Parallel Computing, Daedalus Vol 12 (1992) 31-52.
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Major Application Areas of CSE
• Science– Global climate modeling– Astrophysical modeling– Biology: genomics, protein folding, drug design– Computational chemistry– Computational material sciences and nanosciences
• Engineering– Crash simulation– Semiconductor design– Earthquake and structural modeling– Computational fluid dynamics– Combustion
• Business– Financial and economic modeling– Transaction processing, web services, and search engines
• Defense– Nuclear weapons—test by simulations– Cryptography
This list from 2004 is identical to a list from 1992!
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Your vote counts
A Zettaflops computer will have emergent intelligent behavior.
The first sustained Petaflops application will use MPI.
The first sustained Exaflops application will use MPI.