promise-ictp meeting 24-28 march, 2003 the climatic impacts on indian agriculture k. krishna kumar...
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PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 MPROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003arch, 2003PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 MPROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003arch, 2003
The Climatic Impacts on The Climatic Impacts on Indian AgricultureIndian Agriculture
K. Krishna KumarK. Krishna KumarK. Rupa Kumar, R.G. Ashrit, N.R. Deshpande K. Rupa Kumar, R.G. Ashrit, N.R. Deshpande
and James Hansen (IRI, New York)and James Hansen (IRI, New York)
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, IndiaPune, India
(([email protected]@tropmet.res.in))
PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 MPROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003arch, 2003PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 MPROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003arch, 2003
ObjectivesObjectives
• To generate data on all-India and state-level To generate data on all-India and state-level Agricultural IndicesAgricultural Indices
• To Identify Crops and Regions in India having To Identify Crops and Regions in India having strong Climatic Signal which can be used for strong Climatic Signal which can be used for Developing various Climate Applications Developing various Climate Applications initiatives/programs involving National and Multi-initiatives/programs involving National and Multi-national Institutions and Individual Scientistsnational Institutions and Individual Scientists
• Establishing Climate Signal in various Agricultural Establishing Climate Signal in various Agricultural Indices has implications for Climate Change Indices has implications for Climate Change Impact Assessment Studies as wellImpact Assessment Studies as well
PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 MPROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003arch, 2003PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 MPROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003arch, 2003
Agriculture Agriculture FactsFacts
India lives mainly in its villages, 600,000 of them Roughly 65% of the population is rural India’s growth in per capita food production during 1979-92
was about 1.6% per annum – the highest in the world during this period
Agriculture provides livelihood to about 65% of the labor force Agriculture contributes nearly 29% to the GDP In terms of fertilizer consumption, India ranks 4th in the world About 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agriculture
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IRRIGATIONIRRIGATION CropCropArea Area under under crop crop (mn. (mn. hec)hec)
Irrigated Irrigated area area
under under crop crop (mn. hec.)(mn. hec.)
Irrigated Irrigated area as % area as % of total of total
area area under under cropscrops
FoodgrainsFoodgrains 121121 4545 3737
RiceRice 4343 1919 4545
WheatWheat 2323 1919 8484
Non-Non-foodgrainsfoodgrains
6161 1919 3131
GroundnutGroundnut 99 22 2020
CottonCotton 77 33 3333
SugarcaneSugarcane 44 33 8686
TotalTotal 183183 6464 3535
PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 MPROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003arch, 2003PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 MPROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003arch, 2003
DATADATA
Production/Area/ YieldProduction/Area/ Yield• Total foodgrains• Kharif/Rabi Rice• Winter Wheat• Groundnut• Sorghum• Cereals• Oilseeds• Pulses• Sugarcane
SourceSource
• Agricultural Situation in Agricultural Situation in IndiaIndia
• India Data BaseIndia Data Base
OrganizationsOrganizations
• Center for Monitoring Center for Monitoring Indian EconomyIndian Economy
• Dept. of Agriculture and Dept. of Agriculture and Cooperation, Ministry of Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. of Agriculture, Govt. of IndiaIndia
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Crop AreasCrop Areas
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Monsoon Monsoon VariabilityVariability
Intraseasonal Interannual Decadal/Century Millennia & longer
Onset/withdrawal; Active and break-monsoon phases;30-50 day oscillations; severe rainstorms
Droughts and floods
Changes in the frequency of droughts and floods
Changes in the areal extents of monsoons
Atmospheric variability;tropical-midlatitude interactions;Soil moisture;Sea surface temperatures
Atmospheric interactions;El Niño/ Southern Oscillation;Top layers of tropical oceans;Snow cover;Land surface characteristics
Monsoon circulation variations;Deep ocean changes;Greenhouse gases increase;Human activities;Biospheric changes;Volcanic dust
Global climate excursions;Ice ages;Warm epochs;Sun-earth geometry
Factors
Factors
Features
Features
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All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)
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JJA-1JJA-1 SON-1SON-1
DJF-1DJF-1 MAMMAM
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Regional Climate Signal in Regional Climate Signal in Indian Agriculture IndicesIndian Agriculture Indices
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Area under Area under Major Food Major Food Crops in Crops in India and % India and % Irrigated Irrigated during during 1950-19981950-1998
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Total Total Foodgrain Foodgrain Production in Production in India and its India and its Relation to Relation to Indian Indian RainfallRainfall
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Kharif Rice Kharif Rice Production Production in India in India and its and its Relation to Relation to Indian Indian RainfallRainfall
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Total Total Wheat Wheat Production Production in India in India and its and its Relation to Relation to Indian Indian RainfallRainfall
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Kharif Groundnut Production
and its relation to
Indian Rainfall
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Total Sorghum
Production and its
relation to Indian
Rainfall
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Global Climate Signal in Global Climate Signal in Indian AgricultureIndian Agriculture
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PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 MPROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003arch, 2003PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 MPROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003arch, 2003
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SummarySummary Most rainfed crops show statistically
significant relation with Regional and Global Climatic Factors, the exception being Sorghum.
Wheat and Sugarcane, the two most irrigated crops, do not show any climatic signal.
Groundnut and Kharif (Summer) Rice in India show very strong regional and global climatic signals and should be targeted for climate application as well as climate change impact assessment studies.
PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 MPROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003arch, 2003PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 MPROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003arch, 2003