promoters - moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/06/ntpc-28062020-dolat.pdfe...

9
Result Update Continues to remain at attractive valuations; Maintain Buy NTPC reported Q4 numbers which were better than expectations, with an adjusted PAT of Rs 38bn. The drop in PLFs at 67% in FY20, compared to 77% in FY19, reflects the trend in the industry, but is still better than the industry PLF of 56% in FY20. It has commercialized 5.2GW in FY20, while maintaining a target commercialization of 5.9GW in FY21. NTPC also plans to achieve 5.5GW of capacity addition in FY21. Its capex target is Rs 210bn in FY20. We adjust estimates in FY21 for the Rs 13.6bn of one-time rebate offered. There is significant valuation comfort at a P/BV of 0.8x FY22E. We maintain a Buy rating, and value the stock at 1.2xFY22EP/BV, which leads us to a TP of Rs 145 Q4 numbers ahead on expectations; under recoveries improve in Q4. NTPC reported Q4 numbers which were better than expectations, with an adjusted PAT of Rs 38bn, adjusting for Rs 26bn of one-off tax expense under the current amnesty scheme. Of the Rs 26bn expense, Rs 18bn has been recovered through tariffs pertaining to FY04-09 though the reaming Rs 8.8bn for FY14-19 is uncertain as NTPC was under MAT. The net movement in regulatory account balance aided the PAT in Q4. The PLF in Q4FY20 was 69.5%, which in FY20 was 69%. The drop in PLF to 67% in FY20, from 77% in FY19, reflects the trend in the industry, but is still higher than the industry PLF of 56% in FY20. Improved coal availability meant under- recoveries declined to Rs 2.5bn in Q420, from Rs 8bn in the same period last year and Rs 3.8bn the quarter before. FY21: Targeting 5.9GW of commercial capacity; Rs210bn capex. NTPC has added capacity of 3GW in FY20 on a standalone basis and 3.7GW including JV capacities. This has taken their group level capacity to 62GW including 1.75GW and 1.53GW due to NEEPCO and THDC acquisitions respectively. It has commercialized 3.9GW in FY20 at the stand-alone level and 5.2GW at the group level. The company also plans to achieve 5.9GW in commercial capacity in FY21. Of this, it is confident of adding 4.5GW while the rest depends on faster recovery at project site. The capacity addition target in FY21 is 5.5GW Its capex was Rs 244bn in FY20, while it is envisaging a capex of Rs 210bn in FY21, including emission control equipment. Q4FY20 Result (Rs Mn) Particulars Q4FY20 Q4FY19 YoY (%) Q3FY20 QoQ (%) Revenue 2,72,469 2,12,224 28.4 2,34,964 16.0 Total Expense 1,99,291 1,65,780 20.2 1,65,200 20.6 EBITDA 73,178 46,444 57.6 69,764 4.9 Depreciation 21,290 15,048 41.5 23,198 (8.2) EBIT 51,888 31,396 65.3 46,566 11.4 Other Income 10,319 13,232 (22.0) 5,263 96.1 Interest 18,369 9,257 98.4 17,608 4.3 EBT 62,361 35,372 76.3 50,202 24.2 Tax 49,837 (71,891) (169.3) 20,251 146.1 RPAT 12,524 43,503 (71.2) 29,951 (58.2) APAT 34,012 34,167 (0.5) 29,536 15.2 (bps) (bps) Gross Margin (%) 41.9 40.2 179 44.4 (247) EBITDA Margin (%) 26.9 21.9 497 29.7 (283) NPM (%) 4.6 20.5 (1590) 12.7 (815) Tax Rate (%) 79.9 253.2 (17333) 40.3 3958 EBIT Margin (%) 19.0 14.8 425 19.8 (77) CMP Rs 97 Target / Upside Rs 145 / 50% BSE Sensex 35,231 NSE Nifty 10,383 Scrip Details Equity / FV Rs 98,946mn / Rs 10 Market Cap Rs 960bn USD 13bn 52-week High/Low Rs 146/Rs 73 Avg. Volume (no) 1,83,30,700 NSE Symbol NTPC Bloomberg Code NTPC IN Shareholding Pattern Mar'20(%) Promoters 51.0 MF/Banks/FIs 19.9 FIIs 24.1 Public / Others 5.1 Valuation (x) FY20A FY21E FY22E P/E 7.9 8.4 7.1 EV/EBITDA 9.4 9.4 8.5 ROE (%) 9.2 9.8 10.5 RoACE (%) 4.5 6.0 6.0 Estimates (Rs mn) FY20A FY21E FY22E Revenue 9,77,004 10,79,520 11,70,683 EBITDA 2,70,927 2,80,675 3,04,378 PAT 1,21,735 1,14,607 1,35,987 EPS (Rs.) 12.3 11.6 13.7 VP Research: Vinod Chari Tel: +91 22 40969776 E-mail: [email protected] NTPC Buy June 27, 2020 We appreciate your support in Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2020

Upload: others

Post on 25-Oct-2020

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Promoters - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/06/NTPC-28062020-dolat.pdfe Promoters Continues to remain at attractive valuations; Maintain Buy NTPC reported

Re

sult

Up

da

te

Continues to remain at attractive valuations; Maintain Buy NTPC reported Q4 numbers which were better than expectations, with

an adjusted PAT of Rs 38bn. The drop in PLFs at 67% in FY20, compared to 77% in FY19, reflects the trend in the industry, but is still better than the industry PLF of 56% in FY20.

It has commercialized 5.2GW in FY20, while maintaining a target commercialization of 5.9GW in FY21. NTPC also plans to achieve 5.5GW of capacity addition in FY21. Its capex target is Rs 210bn in FY20.

We adjust estimates in FY21 for the Rs 13.6bn of one-time rebate offered. There is significant valuation comfort at a P/BV of 0.8x FY22E. We maintain a Buy rating, and value the stock at 1.2xFY22EP/BV, which leads us to a TP of Rs 145

Q4 numbers ahead on expectations; under recoveries improve in Q4. NTPC reported Q4 numbers which were better than expectations, with an adjusted PAT of Rs 38bn, adjusting for Rs 26bn of one-off tax expense under the current amnesty scheme. Of the Rs 26bn expense, Rs 18bn has been recovered through tariffs pertaining to FY04-09 though the reaming Rs 8.8bn for FY14-19 is uncertain as NTPC was under MAT. The net movement in regulatory account balance aided the PAT in Q4. The PLF in Q4FY20 was 69.5%, which in FY20 was 69%. The drop in PLF to 67% in FY20, from 77% in FY19, reflects the trend in the industry, but is still higher than the industry PLF of 56% in FY20. Improved coal availability meant under-recoveries declined to Rs 2.5bn in Q420, from Rs 8bn in the same period last year and Rs 3.8bn the quarter before.

FY21: Targeting 5.9GW of commercial capacity; Rs210bn capex. NTPC has added capacity of 3GW in FY20 on a standalone basis and 3.7GW including JV capacities. This has taken their group level capacity to 62GW including 1.75GW and 1.53GW due to NEEPCO and THDC acquisitions respectively. It has commercialized 3.9GW in FY20 at the stand-alone level and 5.2GW at the group level. The company also plans to achieve 5.9GW in commercial capacity in FY21. Of this, it is confident of adding 4.5GW while the rest depends on faster recovery at project site. The capacity addition target in FY21 is 5.5GW Its capex was Rs 244bn in FY20, while it is envisaging a capex of Rs 210bn in FY21, including emission control equipment. Q4FY20 Result (Rs Mn)

Particulars Q4FY20 Q4FY19 YoY (%) Q3FY20 QoQ (%)

Revenue 2,72,469 2,12,224 28.4 2,34,964 16.0 Total Expense 1,99,291 1,65,780 20.2 1,65,200 20.6

EBITDA 73,178 46,444 57.6 69,764 4.9

Depreciation 21,290 15,048 41.5 23,198 (8.2)

EBIT 51,888 31,396 65.3 46,566 11.4

Other Income 10,319 13,232 (22.0) 5,263 96.1

Interest 18,369 9,257 98.4 17,608 4.3

EBT 62,361 35,372 76.3 50,202 24.2

Tax 49,837 (71,891) (169.3) 20,251 146.1

RPAT 12,524 43,503 (71.2) 29,951 (58.2)

APAT 34,012 34,167 (0.5) 29,536 15.2

(bps) (bps) Gross Margin (%) 41.9 40.2 179 44.4 (247)

EBITDA Margin (%) 26.9 21.9 497 29.7 (283)

NPM (%) 4.6 20.5 (1590) 12.7 (815)

Tax Rate (%) 79.9 253.2 (17333) 40.3 3958

EBIT Margin (%) 19.0 14.8 425 19.8 (77)

CMP Rs 97

Target / Upside Rs 145 / 50%

BSE Sensex 35,231

NSE Nifty 10,383

Scrip Details

Equity / FV Rs 98,946mn / Rs 10

Market Cap Rs 960bn

USD 13bn

52-week High/Low Rs 146/Rs 73

Avg. Volume (no) 1,83,30,700

NSE Symbol NTPC

Bloomberg Code NTPC IN

Shareholding Pattern Mar'20(%)

Promoters 51.0

MF/Banks/FIs 19.9

FIIs 24.1

Public / Others 5.1

Valuation (x)

FY20A FY21E FY22E

P/E 7.9 8.4 7.1

EV/EBITDA 9.4 9.4 8.5

ROE (%) 9.2 9.8 10.5

RoACE (%) 4.5 6.0 6.0

Estimates (Rs mn)

FY20A FY21E FY22E

Revenue 9,77,004 10,79,520 11,70,683

EBITDA 2,70,927 2,80,675 3,04,378

PAT 1,21,735 1,14,607 1,35,987

EPS (Rs.) 12.3 11.6 13.7

VP Research: Vinod Chari Tel: +91 22 40969776

E-mail: [email protected]

NTPC

Buy

June 27, 2020

We appreciate your support in Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2020

Page 2: Promoters - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/06/NTPC-28062020-dolat.pdfe Promoters Continues to remain at attractive valuations; Maintain Buy NTPC reported

June 27, 2020 2

SEB receivables position to improve; On track for ramping coal from own mines NTPC’s overdue SEB receivables currently is at Rs 180bn (Rs 96bn as of March 20). This is expected to reduce with the Rs900bn credit line through PFC/REC that is being offered to the SEBs. While the LC mechanism is waived due to lockdown, unless stated by government, it will be back in place starting July 1 and should also aid in bringing down the receivables Similarly, NTPC is on track in its roadmap to increase coal sourcing from own mines, currently at 9.63mn ton in FY20, which it targets to triple to 29mn ton in FY22. Strong valuation comfort; Maintain Buy NTPC is trading at trough valuations and there is significant valuation comfort at a P/BV of 0.8x FY22E for a regulated RoE of 15.5%. We maintain a Buy rating, and value the stock at 1.1xFY22E P/BV, which leads us to a TP of Rs 145.

Quarterly Performance (Rs Mn)

Particulars (Rs mn) Q4FY20 Q4FY19 YoY(%) Q3FY20 QoQ(%) FY20 FY19 YoY(%)

Operating Income 2,72,469 2,12,224 28.4 2,34,964 16 9,77,004 9,03,074 8.2

Fuel Cost 1,49,884 1,19,907 25 1,24,669 20.2 5,42,418 5,24,937 3.3 Electricity purchase for trading 8,297 7,096 16.9 5,934 39.8 27,764 27,146 2.3

Staff Expenditure 14,279 12,061 18.4 11,647 22.6 49,256 47,799 3 Other Expenses 26,831 26,717 0.4 22,949 16.9 86,638 75,486 14.8

EBITDA 73,178 46,444 57.6 69,764 4.9 2,70,927 2,27,706 19

Other Income 10,319 13,232 (22) 5,263 96.1 27,780 18,721 48.4

Depreciation 21,290 15,048 41.5 23,198 (8.2) 86,229 72,544 18.9

EBIT 62,207 44,629 39.4 51,829 20 2,12,479 1,73,884 22.2

Interest Cost 18,369 9,257 98.4 17,608 4.3 67,820 47,167 43.8 Regulatory income/(expense) 18,523 (63,759) (129.1) 15,982 15.9 48,288 (38,413) (225.7)

PBT 62,361 35,372 76.3 50,202 24.2 1,92,948 88,303 118.5

Tax 49,837 (71,891) (169.3) 20,251 146.1 91,820 (29,187) (414.6)

Net profit 12,524 43,503 (71.2) 29,951 (58.2) 1,01,128 1,17,490 (13.9)

Reported EPS 1.3 4.4 3 10.2 11.9

Q4FY20 Q4FY19 bps Q3FY20 bps FY20 FY19 bps

Fuel Cost (%) 55 56.5 (149) 53.1 195 55.5 58.1 (261)

Other Expenses (%) 9.8 12.6 (274) 9.8 8 8.9 8.4 51

Staff Cost (%) 5.2 5.7 (44) 5 28 5 5.3 (25)

Gross Profit Margin 45 43.5 149 46.9 (195) 44.5 41.9 261

EBITDA (%) 26.9 21.9 497 29.7 (283) 27.7 25.2 252

EBIT (%) 22.8 21 180 22.1 77 21.7 19.3 249

PBT(%) 22.9 16.7 622 21.4 152 19.7 9.8 997

NPM (%) 4.6 20.5 (1,590) 12.7 (815) 10.4 13 (266)

Source: DART, Company

Page 3: Promoters - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/06/NTPC-28062020-dolat.pdfe Promoters Continues to remain at attractive valuations; Maintain Buy NTPC reported

June 27, 2020 3

Segmental Performance

Segmental (Rs Mn) Q4FY20 Q4FY19 YoY(%) Q3FY20 QoQ(%) FY20 FY19 YoY(%)

Revenue Generation 2,70,791 2,15,019 26 2,31,769 17 9,65,839 8,87,024 9

Others 13,843 9,046 53 11,934 16 49,911 32,415 54

Unallocated 1,880 1,391 35 344 447 4,282 2,357 82 Less: Intersegment Revenue 3,726 - 3,820 15,248 -

Total 2,82,788 2,25,456 25 2,40,226 18 10,04,784 9,21,796 9

EBIT

Generation 86,384 (25,198) (442.8) 72,257 19.6 2,76,067 1,37,248 101.1

Others 1,223 1,655 (26.1) 1,718 (28.8) 5,690 3,897 46

Total 87,608 (23,543) (472.1) 73,976 18.4 2,81,757 1,41,146 99.6 Unallocated finance cost 18,369 9,257 98.4 17,608 4.3 67,820 47,167 43.8

Other Unallocated 2,956 6,743 (56.2) 2,782 6.3 10,767 16,218 (33.6)

Total 66,283 (39,543) (267.6) 53,585 23.7 2,03,171 77,761 161.3

EBIT Margin

Generation 31.9 (11.7) 4,362 31.2 72 28.6 15.5 1,311

Others 8.8 18.3 (946) 14.4 (556) 11.4 12 (62)

Capital Employed

Generation 19,29,431 14,73,256 31 17,48,661 10 19,29,431 14,73,256 31

Unallocable 28,434 17,913 59 (6,45,495) (104) 28,434 17,913 59

Others (8,22,170) (4,17,088) 97 27,609 (3,078) (8,22,170) (4,17,088) 97

Total 1135694 1074082 6 1130775 0 11,35,694 10,74,082 5.7

Source: DART, Company

Variance from our estimates

Actual DART Consensus DART Consensus Comments

Rs Mn Q4FY20 Q4FY20E Q4FY20E Var (%) Var (%)

Sales 2,72,469 2,56,460 2,38,662 6.2 14.2 Sales came in ahead of estimates

EBITDA 73,178 64,115 69,898 14.1 4.7 Higher sales drove a better EBIDTA

EBITDA margins 26.9 25.0 29.3 185.7 (243.0)bps

PAT 33,540 29,493 32,708 13.7 2.5 APAT came ahead due to movement in regulatory assets

Pat margins 12.3 11.5 13.7 81.0 (139.5)bps

EPS 3.4 3.0 3.3 13.7 2.5

Source: Company, DART

Change in estimates

Particulars (Rs mn) FY21 FY22

New Old (%) New Old (%)

Sales 10,79,520 11,67,846 (7.6) 11,70,683 13,01,571 (10.1)

EBITDA 2,80,675 3,03,640 (7.6) 3,04,378 3,38,409 (10.1)

PAT 1,14,607 1,45,177 (21.1) 1,35,987 1,65,537 (17.9)

EPS 10.2 14.7 (30.3) 13.7 16.7 (17.9)

Source: DART, Company

Page 4: Promoters - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/06/NTPC-28062020-dolat.pdfe Promoters Continues to remain at attractive valuations; Maintain Buy NTPC reported

June 27, 2020 4

NTPC’s consolidated capacity MW( incl JVs)

Source: Company, DART

NTPC’s standalone capacity MW

Source: Company, DART

Generations (BUs)

Source: Company, DART

53

,65

1

53

,65

1

53

,65

1

53

,16

6

55

,12

6

55

,12

6

57

,10

6

58

,15

6

62

,11

0

51

,39

1

51

,39

1

52

,19

1

51

,70

6

52

,86

6

54

,32

6

54

,98

6

56

,44

6

61

,12

6

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20

Installed capacity Commercial capacity

46

,10

0

46

,10

0

46

,10

0

45

,61

5 47

,32

5

47

,32

5 48

,64

5

49

,69

5

50

,35

5

44

,50

0

44

,50

0

45

,30

0

44

,81

5

45

,72

5

46

,52

5

46

,52

5 47

,98

5

49

,69

5

41,000

42,000

43,000

44,000

45,000

46,000

47,000

48,000

49,000

50,000

51,000

4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20

Installed capacity Commercial capacity

69 69

66

70 69 68

62 61

6869 69

66

7069 68

6160

68

64 65

62

6564 64

57 56

63

50

55

60

65

70

75

4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20

Gross Generation Commercial Generation Energy Sent Out

Page 5: Promoters - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/06/NTPC-28062020-dolat.pdfe Promoters Continues to remain at attractive valuations; Maintain Buy NTPC reported

June 27, 2020 5

Plant Load Factor for NTPC (%)

Source: Company, DART

NTPC’s Quarterly Average tariff (Rs/KwH)

Source: Company, DART

Average Tariffs for NTPC (Rs/KwH)

Source: DART, Company

87 8684 85

92 91

84

8890

97

84

95 95 96

9093 92

9495

101

110107

108110 110

108 109

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20

Coal Gas Hydro

3.2

3.363.42 3.47

3.38

3.63

3.743.81

3.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20

Average tarrif

3.2 3.13.3 3.2

3.4

3.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Average Tarrif

Page 6: Promoters - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/06/NTPC-28062020-dolat.pdfe Promoters Continues to remain at attractive valuations; Maintain Buy NTPC reported

June 27, 2020 6

Profit and Loss Account

(Rs Mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E

Revenue 9,03,074 9,77,004 10,79,520 11,70,683

Total Expense 6,75,359 7,06,077 7,98,845 8,66,305

COGS 5,52,074 5,70,183 6,72,541 7,37,530

Employees Cost 47,799 49,256 49,658 46,827

Other expenses 75,486 86,638 76,646 81,948

EBIDTA 2,27,715 2,70,927 2,80,675 3,04,378

Depreciation 72,544 86,229 87,133 96,162

EBIT 1,55,171 1,84,699 1,93,542 2,08,215

Interest 47,167 67,820 48,578 49,169

Other Income 18,721 27,780 21,590 17,560

Exc. / E.O. items (38,413) 48,288 (13,640) 0

EBT 88,312 1,92,948 1,52,914 1,76,607

Tax (29,187) 91,820 38,308 40,620

RPAT 1,17,499 1,01,128 1,14,607 1,35,987

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0

Profit/Loss share of associates 0 0 0 0

APAT 1,06,161 1,21,735 1,14,607 1,35,987

Balance Sheet

(Rs Mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E

Sources of Funds

Equity Capital 98,946 98,946 98,946 98,946

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0

Reserves & Surplus 9,63,800 10,36,749 11,07,961 11,97,034

Net Worth 10,62,746 11,35,694 12,06,907 12,95,980

Total Debt 13,50,742 16,05,881 17,12,119 16,62,370

Net Deferred Tax Liability 63,395 1,13,365 1,13,365 1,13,365

Total Capital Employed 24,76,883 28,54,940 30,32,391 30,71,714

Applications of Funds

Net Block 12,60,184 15,71,038 16,84,444 17,88,874

CWIP 9,08,089 7,30,668 7,30,668 7,30,668

Investments 1,31,459 2,64,009 2,89,857 2,92,755

Current Assets, Loans & Advances 6,07,777 7,10,960 7,57,560 7,60,695

Inventories 79,880 1,07,319 1,18,304 1,28,294

Receivables 84,339 1,56,681 1,77,455 1,60,368

Cash and Bank Balances 21,443 22,091 22,042 21,833

Loans and Advances 8,502 9,088 3,086 3,086

Other Current Assets 4,13,613 4,15,781 4,36,674 4,47,115

Less: Current Liabilities & Provisions 4,19,291 4,21,734 4,30,137 5,01,277

Payables 75,991 90,686 85,770 96,221

Other Current Liabilities 3,43,300 3,31,048 3,44,367 4,05,056

sub total

Net Current Assets 1,88,486 2,89,226 3,27,423 2,59,418

Total Assets 24,88,219 28,54,940 30,32,391 30,71,714

E – Estimates

Page 7: Promoters - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/06/NTPC-28062020-dolat.pdfe Promoters Continues to remain at attractive valuations; Maintain Buy NTPC reported

June 27, 2020 7

Important Ratios

Particulars FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E

(A) Margins (%)

Gross Profit Margin 38.9 41.6 37.7 37.0

EBIDTA Margin 25.2 27.7 26.0 26.0

EBIT Margin 17.2 18.9 17.9 17.8

Tax rate (33.1) 47.6 25.1 23.0

Net Profit Margin 13.0 10.4 10.6 11.6

(B) As Percentage of Net Sales (%)

COGS 61.1 58.4 62.3 63.0

Employee 5.3 5.0 4.6 4.0

Other 8.4 8.9 7.1 7.0

(C) Measure of Financial Status

Gross Debt / Equity 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3

Interest Coverage 3.3 2.7 4.0 4.2

Inventory days 32 40 40 40

Debtors days 34 59 60 50

Average Cost of Debt 3.8 4.6 2.9 3.0

Payable days 31 34 29 30

Working Capital days 76 108 111 81

FA T/O 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7

(D) Measures of Investment

AEPS (Rs) 10.7 12.3 11.6 13.7

CEPS (Rs) 18.1 21.0 20.4 23.5

DPS (Rs) 6.0 3.6 3.6 4.8

Dividend Payout (%) 55.8 29.4 31.2 35.1

BVPS (Rs) 107.4 114.8 122.0 131.0

RoANW (%) 11.3 9.2 9.8 10.5

RoACE (%) 8.5 4.5 6.0 6.0

RoAIC (%) 6.6 7.0 6.6 6.8

(E) Valuation Ratios

CMP (Rs) 97 97 97 97

P/E 9.0 7.9 8.4 7.1

Mcap (Rs Mn) 9,59,772 9,59,772 9,59,772 9,59,772

MCap/ Sales 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8

EV 22,89,071 25,43,562 26,49,850 26,00,309

EV/Sales 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.2

EV/EBITDA 10.1 9.4 9.4 8.5

P/BV 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7

Dividend Yield (%) 6.2 3.7 3.7 5.0

(F) Growth Rate (%)

Revenue 8.2 8.2 10.5 8.4

EBITDA 5.1 19.0 3.6 8.4

EBIT 6.5 19.0 4.8 7.6

PBT (28.4) 118.5 (20.7) 15.5

APAT 2.6 14.7 (5.9) 18.7

EPS 2.6 14.7 (5.9) 18.7

Cash Flow

(Rs Mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E

CFO 1,61,405 2,12,638 2,04,440 3,49,884

CFI (2,83,447) (3,52,211) (2,26,386) (2,03,491)

CFF 92,365 1,51,556 21,897 (1,46,603)

FCFF (91,057) (7,023) 3,902 1,49,292

Opening Cash 39,784 21,443 22,091 22,042

Closing Cash 10,107 33,427 22,042 21,833

E – Estimates

Page 8: Promoters - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/06/NTPC-28062020-dolat.pdfe Promoters Continues to remain at attractive valuations; Maintain Buy NTPC reported

DART RATING MATRIX

Total Return Expectation (12 Months)

Buy > 20%

Accumulate 10 to 20%

Reduce 0 to 10%

Sell < 0%

Rating and Target Price History

Month Rating TP (Rs.) Price (Rs.)

Nov-19 Buy 145 118 Feb-20 Buy 145 116

*Price as on recommendation date

DART Team

Purvag Shah Managing Director [email protected] +9122 4096 9747

Amit Khurana, CFA Head of Equities [email protected] +9122 4096 9745

CONTACT DETAILS

Equity Sales Designation E-mail Direct Lines

Dinesh Bajaj VP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9709

Kapil Yadav VP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9735

Yomika Agarwal VP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9772

Jubbin Shah VP - Derivatives Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9779

Ashwani Kandoi AVP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9725

Lekha Nahar AVP - Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9740

Equity Trading Designation E-mail

P. Sridhar SVP and Head of Sales Trading [email protected] +9122 4096 9728

Chandrakant Ware VP - Sales Trading [email protected] +9122 4096 9707

Shirish Thakkar VP - Head Domestic Derivatives Sales Trading [email protected] +9122 4096 9702

Kartik Mehta Asia Head Derivatives [email protected] +9122 4096 9715

Dinesh Mehta Co- Head Asia Derivatives [email protected] +9122 4096 9765

Bhavin Mehta VP - Derivatives Strategist [email protected] +9122 4096 9705

70

90

110

130

150

170

De

c-1

8

Jan

-19

Fe

b-1

9

Mar-

19

Ap

r-1

9

May-1

9

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oct-

19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Jan

-20

Fe

b-2

0

Mar-

20

Ap

r-2

0

May-2

0

Jun

-20

(Rs) NTPC Target Price

Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. Sunshine Tower, 28th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (West), Mumbai 400013

Page 9: Promoters - Moneycontrol.comimages.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2020/06/NTPC-28062020-dolat.pdfe Promoters Continues to remain at attractive valuations; Maintain Buy NTPC reported

Our Research reports are also available on Reuters, Thomson Publishers, DowJones and Bloomberg (DCML <GO>)

Analyst(s) Certification The research analyst(s), with respect to each issuer and its securities covered by them in this research report, certify that : All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his or her or their personal views about all of the issuers and their securities; and No part of his or her or their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

I. Analyst(s) and Associate (S) holding in the Stock(s): (Nil)

II. Disclaimer: This research report has been prepared by Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. to provide information about the company(ies) and sector(s), if any, covered in the report and may be distributed by it and/or its affiliated company(ies) solely for the purpose of information o f the select recipient of this report. This report and/or any part thereof, may not be duplicated in any form and/or reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. This report has been prepared independent of the companies covered herein. Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. and its affiliated companies are part of a multi-service, integrated investment banking, brokerage and financing group. Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. and/or its affiliated company(ies) might have provided or may provide services in respect of managing offerings of securities, corporate finance, investment banking, mergers & acquisitions, financing or any other advisory services to the company(ies) covered herein. Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. and/or its affiliated company(ies) might have received or may receive compensation from the company(ies) mentioned in this report for rendering any of the above services. Research analysts and sales persons of Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies) associated with it. While reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this report, it does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to herein, and Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. does not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. may not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This report is provided for information only and is not an investment advice and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The investment discussed or views expressed herein may not be suitable for all investor s. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. The information contained herein may be changed without notice and Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as they may deem fit from time to time. Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions. This report is neither an offer nor solicitation of an offer to buy and/or sell any securities mentioned herein and/or not an official confirmation of any transaction. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. and/or its affiliated company(ies) to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to a certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this report may come, are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restrictions.

For U.S. Entity/ persons only: This research report is a product of Dolat Capital Market Private Limited., which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the United States (U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated broker-dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a U.S. broker-dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or required to otherwise comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

This report is intended for distribution by Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act, 1934 (the Exchange Act) and interpretations thereof by U.S. Securities and Exchange Com mission (SEC) in reliance on Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person or entity.

In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain business with Major Institutional Investors, Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. has entered into an agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer Ltd Marco Polo Securities Inc. ("Marco Polo"). Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be effected through Marco Polo or another U.S. registered broker dealer/Entity as informed by Dolat Capital Market Private Limited. from time to time.

Dolat Capital Market Private Limited.

Corporate Identity Number: U65990DD1993PTC009797 Member: BSE Limited and National Stock Exchange of India Limited.

SEBI Registration No: BSE - INB010710052 & INF010710052, NSE - INB230710031& INF230710031, Research: INH000000685 Registered office: Office No. 141, Centre Point, Somnath, Daman – 396 210, Daman & Diu

Board: +9122 40969700 | Fax: +9122 22651278 | Email: [email protected] | www.dolatresearch.com