property market outlook may 31

7/31/2019 Property Market Outlook May 31

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PROPERTY MARKET

OUTLOOK


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II. PROPERTYOUTLOOK INDONESIA

CITY: JAKARTA

1


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II. PROPERTYOUTLOOK INDONESIA

RENTAL RATE (USD psf pm)Sector/Year 2010 2011 2012F Remarks

Residential 1.23 1.30 1.43 Stable outlook

Office 1.40 1.55 2.25 Strong upward trendRetail 3.78 3.98 6.35 Increasing trend

CAPITAL VALUE (USD psf)

Sector/Year 2010 2011 2012F Remarks

OFFICE SECTOR (USD)

. . .

for strong growth

Office Rental 1.40 1.55 2.25 Strong upward trend

2

for strong growth


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II. PROPERTYOUTLOOK GreaterJakarta

CITY: DEBOTABEK

RETAIL

3


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Possibleimpactofglobalrecessiononthe

a artaproperty

mar et

Most OfficeLeasing:Newofficedemandmaynotbeasstrongasthe2011affected

, . ,sinceinthepipeline supplythatisprojectedtocompletein2012has

alreadyreached

over

50%

pre

commitment

rate,

the

impact

of

a

more

modestdemandlevelisexpectednottobesubstantial.Rentalgrowthisexpectedtobewithin510%thisyear

Luxuryresidential

leasing

:Demand

and

buying

power

from

cash

richlocalinvestors,aswellastightsupplycondition(limited

availablelandandwillingsellers)arelikelytosustainthestronggrowthatslowerpaces.

Affected RetailLeasing:Supportedbystrongdomesticspendingandrising

middleincome,retailactivitywilllikelytoremainrelativelystrong.

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Major Developers for High Rise:

Agung Podomoro Group

Artha Graha Group Ciputra Group

Li o Grou

PropertyMarket

Bakrie Group

Sumarecon Group

Pakuwon Grou

Murdaya Group

Gapuraprima Group

Dua Mutiara Grou

Sahid Group


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II. PROPERTYOUTLOOK MALAYSIA

CITY: KUALA LUMPUR,

7


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RENTAL RATE (USD psf pm)Sector/Year 2010 2011 2012 Remarks

Residential 1.20 1.15 1.31 May weaken

Office 2.00 1.93 2.04 Flat growth likely

Retail 8.75 9.18 9.18 Slight growth likely


Sector/Year 2010 2011 2012 Remarks

Residential 208.7 215.0 NA Downward

PressureOffice 239.0 246.0 300 Stable outlook

Sector/Year 2010 2011 2012 Remarks

Office Rental 2.00 1.93 2.04 Flat growth likely

8

Office Capital 239.0 246.0 300 Stable outlook


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ce The

office

sector

is

expected

to

remain

relatively

stable

in

the

short

term

and

continuetobetenantfavoured.CompetitionfortenantswillintensifyaslandlordslooktoofferlargerincentivesandseekGreenBuildingIndex(GBI)certification.

RentallevelsareexpectedtoremainflatortrendmarginallydownwardsduetothetotallevelofincomingsupplyforKLCityandKLCityFringein2012(over7millionsqft).GovernmentinitiatedprojectssuchasInvestKLs ambitioustargettoattract

100

MNCs

coupled

with

the

Kuala

Lumpur

High

Speed

Rail

(HSR)

project

maycus ont e mpacto ncom ngsupp ytosome egreean trans atetoimprovedabsorptionrates.

HighEndCondominium

eve opers

w

con nue

o

o er

nnova ve

res en a

pro uc s

synonymous

w

lifestylelivingthatappealtotodayspurchasers.Thecurrenttrendalsopointstowardssmalltomediumsizedunits.

GuidelinesissuedbyBankNegara(effective1/1/12)willfurthertightenfinancial.

continuetofacedownwardpressuresemanatingfromlowoccupationaldemand

from

both

locals

and

expatriates.

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Retail TheKlang Valleyretailmarketlookssettocontinueitssteadyperformance

asmembersofMRA(MalaysiaRetailersAssociation)remainoptimisticaboutsalesperformancegrowthratesfortheendof2011andinto2012.

Toremain

competitive

and

increase

visitor

numbers,

mall

owners

will

look

provideavariedretailmixandqualityamenities.

Ingeneral,retailrentsareexpectedtoremainstablewhileselectedprimecentres ma see mar inal rowth with new international retailers enterin

themarket

or

taking

flagship

units.

However,

the

level

of

incoming

supply

mayimpactonoveralloccupancylevelsas3newmallsexpecttobe

operationalduringthe1H2012 totallingsome1.7millionsqft.

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Penan Market Outlook I

StateGovernment

(1) receivedinvestment

pledges

totalling RM

5

billion

(US$1.6

billion)fromforeigninvestorsforthenewBatu Kawan

n us r a ar

(2) planstodevelopandpromotePenangastheMedicalCityof

there ion

Residential:

Older Pro ects Newer Develo ments

SellingPrice(US$) $1,2781,615 $1,514 2,355

Monthlyrentals(US$psm pm) $4.77 4.81 $7.29 7.69

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Office:

BasedonthesaleofMenara IJMLand,thesellingpricewasRM50million

onNLAof94,413sqft.orUS$1,781psm

Rentalsremainthesameasin1H2011 betweenUS 8.41 9.08 sm m

Retail:

There

is

a

current

oversupply

of

retail

space . .

Landedhousesandprimecommercialpropertiesingoodlocationsarestil

expecte

to

eres ent

Outlookisneutralforretail,industrialandhotelsectors

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FromJan July2011,Johorstatehasreceivedtotalinvestmentof

RM

5.95

billion

(US$1.86

billion) Residential:Newlaunch(luxuriousapartment)hasbeen

, ,

Office:RentalforprimeCBDofficespaceisUS$8.41 10.09

psm pm;19

storey

office,

Wisma LKN,

was

sold

at

US$

900

psm

Retail:PrimegrossrentsrangefromUS$50.45 134.55psmpm.

Withthe

completion

of

the

Senai

Desaru Highway

and

progressiveopeningsoftheCoastalHighway,theresidentialmarket remains u beat

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officeand

retail

sectors,

both

rental

and

occupancy

rateswillremainstablewithmarginalimprovements

Outlookiscautiouslyoptimisticduetouncertaintyin

globaleconomy

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ISKANDAR MALAYSIA

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ISKANDAR MALAYSIA

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II. PROPERTYOUTLOOK VIETNAM

CITY: Hanoi

CITY: Ho Chi Minh City Q12012

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ClassificationHANOIMarket

2011 2012 (F)

Property

Market Retail Supply (m) 247,000 421,000

Office Supply (m) 700,000 1,100,000

Hotel Supply(#Keys)

5,530 6,594

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1 CONDO FOR SALE 1/2012Apartment Luxury Hi-End Mid-End Low-End Total

New Supply (units) 240 20 880 0 1,140

Average primary $6,950 $1,560 $960 - $1,260

asking price (US$/m2-

10% VAT exclude)

Average secondary

asking price (US$/m2-

$3,070 $1,760 $1,280 $940 $1,760

10% VAT exclude)

Quarterly change (%) -4.7% -6.4% -5.5% -5.5% -5.5%

- - - - - . . . . .


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2. APARTMENT FOR LEASE (as of Q1 2012)

Service Apartment Foreign

Operator

Self-

Management

Total

Total supply (units) 887 1,863 2,750

New Supply (units) 1 380 381

New Supply Keangnam Landmark 72 came into

operation in January, providing 378units

Vacancy rate(%) market wide 20.07% 33.12% 28.91%

Vacancy rate(%)(exclude Keangnam Landmark72)

20.07% 18.11% 18.84%Asking rents almost the same q-

o-q

Occupancy generally improved :Average asking rent(US psm

per month)$39.59 $29.14 $32.20

Quarterly change (%) -0.83% 0.72% -1.25%

Yearly change (%) 2.78% 1.97% 2.03%

Vacancy slightly lower q-o-q

Asking rents (US$/m2/month)

Foreign Operator / Self Managed


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3 OFFICE FOR LEASE (as of Q1 2012)

GRADE A GRADE B GRADE C TOTAL

Number of buildings 15 45 59 119

NLA (m2) 254,332 478,082 251,907 984,321

Vacancy rate (%) 32.08% 21.15% - -

Q-o-q change (pts) -4.87 -5.02 - -

Y-o-y change (pts) 22.50 2.46 - -

Average asking rent $36.25 $23.74 - -

(US /m2/ month)

Q-o-q change (%) 0.83% -3.98% - -

Y-o-y change (%) -7.57% -11.86% - -

***Almost of Grade C is operated by small, private investor so it is lack of transparency in this segment.

Supply No new completion, Vincom City Tower no longer an office-

for-lease building (acquired by Techcombank) New launch : ICON 4 Tower 20 000 sm

Estimated Future New Supply (m2)

Grade A

Grade B

Asking rents Grade A : increased slightly in some CBD buidlings (Sun City,

Pacific Place) Grade B : decreased sli htl in old buildin s in mid-town area

while rents in other buildings remained stable

Demand Outlook Still strong demand for prime location buildings Local & foreign banks expanding aggressively


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4 RETAIL MARKET (at Q1 2012)

De artment Store Sho in center Retail Lobb Total

Total supply(NLA, sm) 46,000 189,981 10,310 246,291

New Supply(NLA, sm) 0 0 0 0

Vacancy rate(%) 10.1% 14.5% 2.9% 13.2%

Asking Price (US$ psm per mth))

CBD - $57.3 $142.9 $66.6

q-o-q change (%) - 1.3% 3.5% 15.5%

y-o-y change (%) - -0.4% 1.3% 11.6%

Non-CBD $46.0 $27.0 $21.0 $31.3

q-o-q change (%) -4.8% -13.4% 10.5% -9.1%

y-o-y change (%) -0.1% -3.3% 0.0% -2.0%

No additional retail space in Q1/2012; market remains with 246,291 sm (NLA) in modern retail objects

CBD vacancy reduced slightly from 5.6% to 5.0% (q-o-q); Non-CBD vacancy increased from 13.8% to 14.9%; Non-

CBD vacancy increased from 13.8% to 14.9%

Sho in centre rents softened sli htl to US$33.6 sm er month (CBD US$ 57.3; non-CBD US$ 27.0)

Prime locations in retail lobbies remain high in demand (average asking rent US$140/sm/month)

Category Others (Cinemas, FEC, Toy shops, bookshops etc.) dominated new supply in Q1 2012, in which opened

cinemas contributed most


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4 RETAIL MARKET

Occupancy, Min and Max rent rate

Occupancy rate

Min rent rate

Max rent rare

Purchase of retail space under long-term leases isattracting some interest in Hanoi. The primary asking

price for shopping center achieved US$1,500 to

US$5,400 per sqm for a leasing term of 30 to 50 years.

Demand for retail space is growing, approx. 70 local

and international retailers expanded with stores ins opp ng centers.

Retail sales and GDP per capita have increased every

year and the percentage of total income spent on retail

increased from 64% in 2005 to 81% in 2010.

However, as at Q1 2012, low consumer spending isexpected to continue and consolidation of tenants is

expected less openings & smaller space leased


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Q12012


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GradeA Grade B GradeC Total

No.ofbuildings 9 47 240 296

GFA(sm) 304,380 805,682 812,621 1,922,683

. . .

Qoqchange(pts) 5.7 3.2 3.9

Yo

y

change

(pts)

19.2

1.0

6.9

Average askingrent

(US$psm pm)

$31.38 $17.64 $21.47

Qoqchange(%) 2.4% 2.5% 2.5%

Yo

y

change

10.0%

7.3%

10.5%

SlightGradeArentalsofteningcontinuedaslandlordslooktosecuretenantsforvacant

25

space

DelaysinfuturesupplymeanthatGradeArentsmaybeapproachingashortterm

bottom


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HCMC Residential for Sale

1 2012 Sna shot

Luxury Highend Midend Affordable Total

TotalSupply(units) 504 15,548 13,406 15,075 44,533

NewCompletion(units) 87 0 364 862 1,313

Newlaunch units

SecMkt Avg askingprice

(US$psm)$3,960 $1,763 $902 $712

Qo

q

change

(%)

4.0%

2.4%

1.1%

1.1%

Yoychange(%)9.4% 5.0% 6.3% 2.1%

Secondarymarket

:prices

continue

to

fall,

as

short

term

investors

look

to

liquidate

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Dept Stores ShoppingCentres Total

TotalSupply (GFA,sm) 113,820 377,650 491,470

VacancyRate(%) 0% 21.6% 16.6%

(US$psm permonth)

. .

Qoqchange(%) 0.0% 0.7%

. .

NonCBDaverageaskingrents

(US$psm permonth)

$46.56 $31.12

. .

Yoychange 5.5% 11.2%

27

Futuresupplyisstillcomingon,withSCVivocity shoppingcentregroundbreakingin

March2012(72,000sm GFA)


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II. PROPERTY OUTLOOK THAILAND

CITY: BANGKOK

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PROPERTY MARKET IN THAILAND

According to the Bank of Thailand, the Thai economy began improving in Dec2011 in the aftermath of widespread flooding around Bangkok. Inflation softened,under innin stabilit in the overall econom .

Going forward, investor sentiment and confidence will largely depend on theeffectivemess of government flood relief and rehabilitation plans in restoringconfidence

With brighter economic outlook, prime office space improved significantly in Q1

Average Daily Rate (ADR) for hotels grew 11% y-o-y despite falling occupancy

New condo launches increased significantly from Q4 2011, especially in the cityarea as flooding did not occur here

Consumer confidence rose for three months consecutively, boosting hope in the

retail sector


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Residential : Active launches in Central Bangkok in 1Q 2012

Major developers were lining up to new condominium projects in Central

Bangkok following postponements due to the severe flooding

Notable launches include 4 projects under Ideo Mobi brand from Ananda

eve opmen . er recen aunc es nc u e :

Project Developer Totalunits Average Price

(THBpsm)

Average Price

(USDpsm)

NobleUnite Noble

Development

255 109,000 $3,633

Supalai Park Supalai 660 56,500 $1,883

EkamaiThonglor

SiameseThirty

Nine

SiameseAsset 87 94,600 $3,153

Dwell Preuksa Real 289 149,000 $4,967

TheAddress

Sukhumvit 61

AsianProperty 99 147,500 $4,917


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Demandhas

strengthened

in

non

flooded

city

centre,

from

both

occupiers

andinvestors

Leasingmarketwasactivelastquarter

Stilllargelydependentontheeffectivenessofthegovernmentsstimulus

programsand

rehabilitation

plans

in

instilling

confidence

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Industrial

Thailands Board of Investment (BOI) recently announced the approval of new reliefmeasures to encourage investment and business recovery among projects affected

y t e oo

The measures applicable to both small and large scale investors and both Thai andforeign businesses, will include tax incentives (up to a 150% cap on new investmentplus remaining unused cap or up too 50% tax reduction)

Tax exemptions (up to eight years) could be given to affected businesses

The main concerns for the industrial sector would be Environment ImpactAssessment (EIA) and Health Impact Assessment (HIA).

Commercial

Total office supply in Bangkok rose marginally to 8.12 million sqm as at end-2011

However, until the com letion of Ro al Rachadumri in 2013, the su l of Grade A

office space in the CBD will be limited as no new supply will enter the market Several Grade B offices including the 9th Tower A & B (56,000 sqm).

Vacancy rate for all grades of office space across Bangkok dropped to 14.9% at end-

Near panic about flooding weighed on the market, causing gross rents for overall

Bangkok and CBD Grade A space to drop slightly by 1% y-o-y to THB 394 (US$ 13.1)psm pm and 2.2% y-o-y to THB 611 (US$ 20.4) psm pm respectively


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Commercial

Particularly for CBD grade A office market, capital value is expected to rise over themedium term. A slight increase by 2% q-o-q to THB 69,699 (US$2,323) psm wasregistered

Net take-up is expected to increase as limited supply is anticipated at least until 2013

osp a y

China was Bangkoks largest source market in 2011.

1.23 million Chinese visited Bangkok and accounted for 10.5% of total international

arrivals

Hotel supply is set to increase, with a total of 44 hotels and 10,126 hotel rooms in thepipeline for 2012 through to 2015 and onwards. 52% of this new supply is due toopen in 2012 (52.3%) and in 2013 (24.8%)

- -

category


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Retail Strong performance of the retail market has spurred on a massive amount of supply

completing in 2012. Approximately 18 projects are expected to be completed thisyear. Of these projects, the prime grade centres include Seacon Square Bangkae

(300,000 sqm) and Mega Bangna (400,000 sqm) Demand for retail space, both from newcomers and branch expansion, was active in2011

Major tenants include Uniqlo and IKEA (1st branch in Thailand with a total space of43,000 sqm at Mega Bangna


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Asian Economic Community in 2015

e ma or c ange n wou e e s an conom c ommun y

which will positively impact the property market in all sectors as well astransportation and logistics.

hugely benefit Thailand.

AEC will open up businesses amongst the Asian countries.

Geo ra hicall with Thailand in the center of man countries Thailand willhave a larger distribution channel.

The public may be scared of over supply of condominiums but once AEC isintroduced this will no longer be on over supply as we will have moreeman or res ent a .

There will be a higher possibility and opportunities for Commercial,Industrial, Retail and Hospitality sectors as well.


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Pro ert

Market

Reform The Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce in Thailand (JFCCT) and

real estate consultants are ressin for a review of the countr spolicy regarding foreign ownership. This will have significant positive

impact without any material risk to issues of sovereignty oradversely affecting social or economic conditions

JFCCT is lobbying for the introduction of a 60 year registered leaseterm, double the current 30 years. But neighbouring countries have

99 year leases for foreign buyers. This will also bring in foreigndirect investment into the country.

It points out that it has seen an increase in buyers in neighboringcountries such as Cambodia. These buyers are not entering the

market because Cambodia is cheap. They are entering it becausethey have long term registered security of tenure on competitivequality property.


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Major Companies in Real Estate

Major Real estate Companies Total Assets in THB

an ouses ons

Bangkok Land PCL 38 billions

Pruksa Real estate 34 billions

Sansiri PCL 31 billions

Quality Houses 30.5 billionsAsian Property Dev. PCL 24 billions

Amata corporation PCL 12.9 billions


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II. PROPERTYOUTLOOK PHILIPPINES

RENTAL RATE (USD psf pm)Sector/Year 2010 2011 2012F Remarks

Residential 1.18 1.39 1.50 8% annual rowth

projected

Office 1.73 1.85 1.96 Forecast to breach2007 level

Retail 2.49 2.58 2.63 Modest growth


Sector/Year 2010 2011 2012F Remarks

OFFICE SECTOR (USD)

. . .

the O&O industry

Office Rental 1.73 1.85 1.96 Forecast to breach

2007 level

39

the O&O industry


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Major Companies in Real Estate

Major Real estate Companies Market Capitalisation

ya a an , m on

Vista Land US$ 798 million

Robinsons Land US 1 591 million

Century Properties Group US$ 297 million

Megaworld Corp US$ 1,161 millionRockwell Land US$ 439 million

property market outlook may 31

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