propertyguru property market index · 103.5 q2 q3 103.2 102.4 2019 singapore property index...
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PropertyGuru
Property Market IndexSingapore | Q3 2019
2PropertyGuru Property Index | Singapore | Q3 2019
Buying a home is one of the most difficult
decisions of our lives. It is also likely to be the
most expensive decision. When committing
to a home purchase, it is important to
be equipped with relevant and sufficient
information so that the decision can be
made confidently.
PropertyGuru wants to simplify this process
for property seekers, including first-time
homebuyers and existing homeowners who
might be looking into buying their second or
third properties. In that vein, we created this
report to help Singaporeans understand the
movement of the property market better,
so that property buyers can gain greater
insight on current price trends that are in
Using a range of statistical techniques, the
data from over 200,000 private home listings
on PropertyGuru Singapore are aggregated
and indexed, demonstrating the movement
of supply-side pricing. The PropertyGuru
Property Index shows seller optimism and
indicates the price level that developers and
homeowners feel that they can fetch for
their respective properties.
An increase in the Index may demonstrate
buoyancy of sentiment while a decrease
may indicate a moderation of expectations.
About the
PropertyGuru
Property Index
Methodology
line with market sentiments, and to try to
time their property purchases better.
As a leader in the real estate market in
Singapore, PropertyGuru processes a vast
amount of real estate data daily, providing
us with the necessary data to crunch, and
deliver in-depth insights to all Singaporean
home seekers.
In this report, we look at pricing and supply
indices of private residential properties in
Singapore, in various locations, and across
different property types, to provide a
comprehensive overview of property market
dynamics across the city-state.
The Index is based on price levels as of Q1
2015. This means that aggregated price
levels are denominated as 100 at Q1 2015,
and the subsequent quarters’ pricing are
relative to that.
We complement the price levels with a view
on supply volumes in the market through the
number of property listings on PropertyGuru
Singapore. Our supply volumes not only
take into account residential resale supply,
but also new launch supply in Singapore.
3PropertyGuru Property Index | Singapore | Q3 2019
For the second successive quarter, asking
prices in the non-landed private residential
market continued to taper slightly as the
number of listings increased, which likely
point to an increasing number of sellers
entering the market and moderating
their expectations to secure buyers
Large and mega-scale newly launched
private residential projects proved popular
with buyers in the quarter, with five of the
top 10 best-selling condominiums located
in Districts 3 and 5
After seeing a significant increase in
asking prices from the previous quarter
and year-on-year respectively, District 7
looks set to become the most expensive
residential district in Singapore, taking
into account three new and upcoming
projects in the Bugis precinct
4PropertyGuru Property Index | Singapore | Q3 2019
Price Index Overview
The PropertyGuru Singapore Property
Price Index (SPPI), which focuses
on asking prices in the non-landed
private residential market, fell by
0.8% to 102.4 in the previous quarter. This
marks a steady decline since the start of
2019, and a fall of 3.1% year-on-year since
the highs of Q3 2018, when the Singapore
government’s additional cooling measures
came into effect to “keep price increases in
line with economic fundamentals”.
“The gradual decline in the SPPI for three
consecutive quarters since the start of 2019
may be attributed to the efficacy of the
cooling measures that the government had
introduced,” says Tan Kee Khoon, Country
Manager of PropertyGuru. “The most literal
and logical explanation of the downward
movement is sellers and developers
moderating their asking and launch prices
to attract buyers.”
Source: PropertyGuru Analytics
Q4Q3Q2Q1
2017
Q4Q3Q2Q1
2016
Q4Q3Q2Q1
2015
Pric
e In
dex (
Ba
se =
10
0)
85
90
95
100
105
110
Q3 Q4Q2Q1
2018
105.7
Q1
103.5
Q2 Q3
103.2102.4
2019
Singapore Property Index (Price)
-3.1%
-0.8%
In figures, the median finalised per square
foot (psf) asking price for non-landed
private residential property is $1,580 for Q3
2019, taken from across the 28 postal districts
in Singapore. In subsequent analysis we
have omitted two postal districts—6 and
24—as they have either fewer than the
number of listings required (a share of 0.1%
or more of total) and/or too few projects
listed (less than three).
Meanwhile, Q3 2019 real estate statistics
released by the Urban Redevelopment
Authority (URA) on 25 October showed that
the URA price index of private residential
properties have continued to trend upward.
Specifically, transaction prices of non-
landed private properties increased 1.3%
in Q3 2019, continuing a 2.0% increase in
Q2 2019.
According to URA statistics, it is also
noteworthy that 58.7% out of all private
residential units transacted were new sales.
This figure is the highest since the Q4 2014
and could point to the relative popularity of
new launches versus resale condos among
buyers in the current market.
5PropertyGuru Property Index | Singapore | Q3 2019
Considering both the SPPI and the URA
statistics for Q3 2019, it could be inferred
that sellers have been revising their asking
prices to make it more palatable to buyers,
whereas buyers are increasingly willing to
pay more, creating a situation where sellers
and buyers are meeting halfway, in contrast
to the wait-and-see mentality both sides
have adopted in the first half of 2019.
This ‘meeting halfway’ phenomenon can
be seen in the new launch market for
condominiums. The 327-unit Daintree
Residence, the first project to be launched
after the 8 July 2018 cooling measures
were announced, have seen its prices inch
downwards over the past year, from an
average psf transaction price of $1,700 in
Q3 2018 to $1,599 in Q3 2019—a decrease of
nearly 6%.
Notably, Q3 2019 was the best quarter
for Daintree Residences in terms of sales
volume—13 units transacted—since Q3
2018 (when it sold 41 units in that quarter).
In between, just 14 units were sold in 9
months. It would appear that, in the case of
Daintree Residences, developer SP Setia and
prospective buyers may have ‘settled’ on a
pricing that stimulates take-up—a classic
case of property economics at work.
The buyer-seller common ground is an
argument supported by the high take-up of
new launch condo units in Q3 2019, with the
3,281 units sold—the highest since Q2 2013.
This is a significant 39.6% jump from Q2 2019
(2,350 units sold) and an 8.9% increase from
Q3 2018 (3,012 units sold).
In contrast, the volume of private residential
resale transactions in Q3 2019 grew quarter-
on-quarter by 0.3%, from 2,371 to 2,378 units,
and fell 11.0% year-on-year from 2,672 units
in Q3 2018.
“Although the cooling measures have
dampened private home prices, it is likely
that second-property buyers have begun
to price-in ABSD (Additional Buyer’s Stamp
Buyers and sellers ‘meeting halfway’
Duty) into their total outlay, taking away its
psychological impact,” remarked Tee Khoon.
“Those who may have delayed entering the
market last year could be starting to enter
now, with new launches being favoured
due to lower quantum entry prices and the
progressive payment scheme.”
It is likely that
second-property
buyers have begun
to price-in ABSD into
their total outlay,
taking away its
psychological impact.
Project Watch
Daintree Residences
District 21
No. of units: 327
Developer: SP Setia
Est. TOP: December 2022
Q3 2018
No. of units sold
41
Average PSF of sold unit
$1,700
Average size of unit sold
75.4
Q4 2018 to Q2 2019
No. of units sold
14
Average PSF of sold unit
$1,676
Average size of unit sold
70.6
Q3 2019
No. of units sold
13
Average PSF of sold unit
$1,599
Average size of unit sold
70.7
6PropertyGuru Property Index | Singapore | Q3 2019
The PropertyGuru Singapore Property
Supply Index (SPSI), which focuses
on the number of non-landed
private residential listings posted on
PropertyGuru, saw a gain of 14.9% from 94.5
in the previous quarter to 109.2 in Q3 2019.
This marks the biggest increase in the SPSI
in more than a year.
The increase in the SPSI in Q3 2019, which
factors in both resale and new sale listings, in
part reflects URA statistics for new launches
in the same quarter. The URA had reported
that developers launched 3,628 condo units
(excluding Executive Condominiums) for
sale in Q3 2019, an increase of 39.6% from
2,502 units in Q2 2019.
Despite Q3 2019 coinciding with the Hungry
Ghost month, developers moved to launch
several large-scale condominium projects
in that quarter. Parc Clematis (1,468 units),
Avenue South Residences (1,074 units) and
One Pearl Bank (774 units) were the three
largest projects launched in that quarter.
“Now is the right time for developers of larger
projects to launch, whereas the smaller
projects can afford the wait. This is because
larger projects have a longer runway to
sell off their units before the ABSD taxation
and Qualifying Certificate charges kick in,”
said Tee Khoon. Developers may apply for a
Supply Index Overview
remission of the ABSD amounting to 25% if
they sell all units in their respective project
within five years.
Of the total supply of non-landed private
residential units in Q3 2019, District 19
(Punggol / Sengkang / Hougang) registered
the biggest share of listing postings for
the third consecutive quarter. From 8,379
postings in Q3 2018, D19’s listings in Q3 2019
totalled 10,282 postings, an increase of 22.7%.
District 19 now makes up 11.4% of all postings
on PropertyGuru as of Q3 2019, with District
9 in second with 7,378 listings—a share of
8.2%.
In terms of region, the West of Singapore
reported the biggest increase in listing
PropertyGuru Property Index (Supply)
Pric
e In
dex (
Ba
se =
10
0)
0
50
100
150
200
Q4Q3Q2Q1
2017
Q4Q3Q2Q1
2016
Q4Q3Q2Q1
2015
Q3 Q4Q2Q1
2018
128.5
Q1 Q2
83.794.5
Q3
109.2
2019
-8.5%
+14.9%
Source: PropertyGuru Analytics
Now is the right time for developers
of larger projects to launch, whereas
the smaller projects can afford the
wait.
postings in Q3 2019 from the previous
quarter. Comprising of District 22 and 23,
including Jurong East, Jurong West, Bukit
Batok, Bukit Panjang, Choa Chu Kang and
Hillview, this region saw an increase of 19.5%
listings posted from the previous quarter,
from 4,210 in Q2 2019 to 5,029 in Q3 2019.
In total, 20 postal districts reported an
increase in the number of listing postings
which, when viewed in perspective with the
increased transaction volume in Q3 2019
that saw 5,763 total units transacted, could
indicate a significant reboot in market
activity—on both the buying and selling
fronts—since the implementation of
additional property curbs last July.
7PropertyGuru Property Index | Singapore | Q3 2019
For the non-landed private residential
properties within the Core Central Region
(CCR), where URA statistics reported a
2.0% price increase in Q3 2019 compared
to the previous quarter, we observed that
the number of listings posted during the
quarter have decreased slightly in the prime
districts D9 (-1.9% from Q2 2019) and D11
(-0.3%). This could indicate a buyer uptake
exceeding the number of units placed on the
market during the quarter.
“The CCR continues to attract foreign buyers,
especially for luxury projects above $5
million,” said Winston Lee, Regional Head of
Special Projects at PropertyGuru. In Q3 2019,
half (53) of all 106 CCR non-landed private
residential property transactions above $5
million were made by foreign buyers.
“To wealthy foreign buyers, the increased
ABSD is largely a non-issue,” Winston added.
“Despite our current stamp duty rates,
high-end properties in Singapore remain
Luxury real estate retains foreign appeal
comparatively fairly valued compared to
other established cities and are seen as
stable assets for wealth preservation. These
explains the healthy, consistent uptake of
housing stock with luxury positioning in the
CCR.”
Explained
Qualifying
Certificate (QC)
Under the Residential Property
Act’s Qualifying Certificate (QC)
rules, all developers with non-
Singaporean shareholders or
directors are required to obtain
the Temporary Occupation
Permit (TOP) for their housing
developments within 5 years
and to sell all dwelling units
within two years from the date
of TOP.
To extend the deadline,
developers will have to fork
out an additional 8%, 16%
and 24% of the land purchase
price for the first, second and
subsequent years respectively.
The amount is pro-rated
accordingly to the proportion
of unsold units.
Should developers fail to
comply with the QC rules, their
banker’s guarantee of 10% of
the land purchase price that
they put up will be forfeited.
High-End Demand
Core Central Region (CCR) foreign buyer transactions exceeding $5 million
Time
Period
Number of CCR
transactions above
$5 million by foreign
buyers
Total CCR
transactions above
$5 million
Percentage of CCR
transactions above
$5 million by foreign
buyers
Q1 2018 42 114 37%
Q2 2018 37 118 31%
Q3 2018 27 62 44%
Q4 2018 36 77 47%
Q1 2019 29 68 43%
Q2 2019 59 105 56%
Q3 2019 53 106 50%
8PropertyGuru Property Index | Singapore | Q3 2019
From the SPPI, SPSI and URA statistics, it
could be reasoned that the Singapore
private residential property market
has once again found its rhythm.
That said, this is still very much a buyers’
market, given the minor downward revisions
in asking price over the last two quarters.
The positive aspect is that buyers seem to
be returning to the market, a fact echoed
by the steady decline in unsold private
residential units from 38,710 in Q1 2019, to
35,538 and 34,089 in the second and third
quarters respectively.
Several caveats remain, chiefly the fact
that a handful of new launches have been
delayed for release in 2020 due to several
factors, including an extended timeframe
in obtaining planning approvals from the
authorities. When these projects eventually
hit the market, the number of unsold units
will likely to be pushed back towards the
40,000 mark.
“Buyers will no doubt welcome the gamut of
choices with the number of new launches,”
said Tee Khoon. He also pointed out that
two-thirds (66%) of the 3,214 new sales for
uncompleted private properties in Q3 2019
came from just 10 projects. Seven of out
these 10 projects were mega-scale (more
than 1,000 units), whereas none fell below
700 units.
“We foresee that the bigger projects would
continue to prove the biggest draw for
buyers, given their more sizeable facilities
and typically lower maintenance fee,” Tee
Khoon explained.
Another observation could be drawn from
buyer behaviour in Q3 2019. “The private
property market, while showing encouraging
signs on the surface, do not seem to be
moving in one direction,” observed Winston.
“Not only are the bigger new launch
projects getting a disproportionate share of
the pie, resale private properties seem to be
increasingly side-lined by buyers.”
Further Insights
We foresee that the
bigger projects would
continue to prove the
biggest draw for buyers.
New launches: The more the merrier?
A Taste for Mega-Condos
Top 10 newly launched projects by units sold in Q3 2019
Ranking
by units
sold
Project name DistrictUnits sold
in Q3 2019
Project Size (in no.
of residential units)
1 Parc Clematis 5 430 1,468
2 Avenue South Residence 3 358 1,074
3 The Florence Residences 19 293 1,410
4 Treasure at Tampines 18 277 2,203
5 One Pearl Bank 3 229 774
6 Parc Esta 15 166 1,399
7 Stirling Residences 3 110 1,259
8 Parc Botannia 28 95 735
9 Riverfront Residences 19 95 1,472
10 Whistler Grand 5 77 716
Total 2,130 12,510
9PropertyGuru Property Index | Singapore | Q3 2019
With three out of 10 best-selling projects in
Q3 2019 hailing from District 3 (Alexandra/
Commonwealth), it is evident that condos
in this location are proving a big draw for
buyers. A total of 796 new launch units sold
in the quarter were D3 projects, making up
nearly one in four units (24%) sold in Q3.
Meanwhile, the district-level SPPI showed
that D3 hit an all-time high median psf
asking price of $1,846 in Q3 2019, an increase
of 2.4% and 4.9% from the previous quarter
and the same quarter last year respectively.
“The popularity of projects in District 3 go a
long way to proving the allure of city fringe
locations for property buyers, who feel that
Asking prices for District 7 (Beach Road /
Bugis / Rochor) also hit an all-time high in
Q3 2019 with a median psf price of $2,467.
Driven entirely by resale listings, this is
an increase of 3.2% and 10.2% from the
previous quarter and the same quarter last
year respectively.
Q4 2019 sees the launch of the 219-unit
Midtown Bay condominium, part of a
landmark mixed-development project and
a Guocoland ‘double billing’ (the developer
also won a bid for the neighbouring Tan
Quee Lan site, which can yield 580 homes).
Another upcoming residential project at
Middle Road could yield a further 375 units.
With launch prices set at around the $2,800
mark, the 99-year leasehold Midtown
District 19 (Punggol / Sengkang / Hougang)
has seen a considerable number of units
brought to market since the start of 2019.
According to the district-level SPSI, D19
has seen the number of quarterly listing
postings increase 22.7% year-on-year, from
8,379 in Q3 2018 to 10,282 in Q3 2019.
Meanwhile, a total of 480 new launch units
in D19 were sold in Q3 2019, while median
psf asking prices remain stable at $1,299
(from $1,300 and $1,303 from the previous
quarter and the same quarter last year
respectively). With the Q4 2019 launch of
Sengkang Grand Residences in the range of
$1,690 psf, median psf asking prices for D19 is
projected to increase.
“The appeal of new launch projects in
District 19 is their relative affordability
there is value and also room for capital
appreciation,” remarked Tee Khoon. “Better
still, the high-rise developments offer a
sought-after city view towards the East that
is unaffected by the afternoon sun.”
District 3 is located in the Rest of Central
Region (RCR), defined by the URA as “the
rest of Central Region which are outside
postal districts 9, 10, 11, Downtown Core
and Sentosa”. Notably, rentals in the RCR
registered a 3.0% increase in the past two
quarters, compared to a 0.9% increase in
the Core Central Region (CCR) and 2.0%
increase in the Outside Central Region
(OCR) in the same period.
Bay will push D7 prices further into prime
territory, possibly surpassing D9 as the most
expensive district in Singapore. (The median
psf asking price for D9 stands at $2,600 in
Q3 2019.)
“With the upcoming developments in District
7, we are witnessing the transformation of
a history-rich, predominantly commercial
precinct into a hip, culturally-rich and
vibrant Civic District that could give the
location a distinct Unique Selling Point,” said
Tee Khoon. “This, together with developers
entering the fray with upmarket and luxury
offerings, will soon establish D7 as a prime
district alongside Districts 9, 10 and 11.”
despite being located near to established
amenities such as shopping malls, eateries,
schools, parks and MRT stations, which are
well-distributed across the entire district,”
remarked Tee Khoon. “Buyer optimism is
further buoyed by the upcoming Cross
Island Line and Punggol Digital District.”
Tee Khoon pointed out that property in
D19 is significant for another reason. “D19
is unique in that it is the confluence of old
and new money. Young upgraders from
the BTO flats in Sengkang and Punggol are
inclined to remain in the area, whereas older
investors or right-sizers who have lived most
of their lives in Serangoon and Hougang
will want to stay put. This bodes well for real
estate demand in the Northeast.”
District 3 popularity not a one-off
District 7 in unchartered territory
District 19 has staying power
10PropertyGuru Property Index | Singapore | Q3 2019
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11PropertyGuru Property Index | Singapore | Q3 2019
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