proposed eea approach to establish an environmental- compatible wind energy potential in europe hans...

Proposed EEA approach to establish an

environmental-compatible wind energy potential in

Europe

Hans EerensMNP

Netherlands

Copenhagen 9 November 2006

Hans Eerens, Work Programme 2

This study

• Focus EU-25; preferable NUTS-2

• Focus on land availability & technology development

• GIS approach

• Use survey/questionnaire for data environmental constraints (value oriented)

• Final results: – Wind power density map (based on ECMWF wind fields)

– Environmental constraint supply curve per nuts region

– Various scenarios up to 2030


Potential for Renewables… see De Noord et al, Potentials and costs for renewable electricity generation adapted from Andre Wakker, ECN

Theoretical potential

Technical potential

Realistic potential

Realisable potential

Economicpotential

ECMWF 40-year reanalyzed, wind speed data (2006), CORINE landcover, workshop recommendations

e.g. Wind turbine characteristics, ecofys proposal, workshop recommendations

planning, public acceptance,market barriers, environmental contraints: Questionnaire, workshop recommendations

Lead times, growth rates of technology, scenario assumptions: Climate action scenario EEA, workshop recommendations

policies and subsidies, GREEN-X (Environment) model, Technical University Vienna

Competition with substitutes

e.g. fossil

Sen

siti

viti

esenvironmental-compatible wind energy potential


Previous global study; land-use constraints

Win

d regim

e (un

attractive)

Lan

d-u

se fun

ction (too m

uch

interferen

ce)

Altitu

de (E

levation too h

igh)

ar, technical losses

Wind park infrastructure, e.g. roads

Pow

er den

sity (MW

km

-2)

Available area (km2)

Urb

an A

rea (pop

ulation

too den

se)MW

Bioreserves (p

rotected)

Hoogwijk, Utrecht, 2004

Social constraints


Theoretical potential

• ECMWF data from the 40 year reanalyzed data project (finished january 2006):– Windspeed (high time- and spatial resolution) annual

average wind speed, weibull characteristics (K, A) for 5 different years

– Roughness

• Scaled to 80 m height


Data Corine landcover data (Resolution 100-250 m)

1 ARTIFICIAL SURFACES11 URBAN FABRIC

110111 CONTINIOUS URBAN FABRIC112 DISCONTINUOUS URBAN FABRIC12 INDUSTRIAL, COMMERCIAL AND TRANSPORT UNITS121 INDUSTRIAL OR COMMERCIAL UNTS122 ROAD AND RAILNETWORKS AND ASSOCIATED LAND123 PORT AREAS124 AIRPORTS13 MINE. DUMP AND CONSTRUCTION SITES131 MINERAL EXTRACTION SITES132 DUMP SITES133 CONSTRUCTION SITES14 ARTIFICIAL NON-AGRICULTURAL VEGETATED AREAS141 GREEN URBAN AREAS142 SPORT AND LEISURE FACILITIES2 AGRICULTURAL AREAS21 ARABLE LAND211 NON-IRRIGATED ARABLE LAND212 PERMANENTLY IRRIGATED LAND213 RICE FIELDS22 PERMANENT CROPS221 VINEYARDS222 FRUIT TREES AND BERRY PLANTATIONS223 OLIVE GROVES23 PASTURES231 PASTURES24 HETEROGENEOUS AGRICULTURAL AREAS241 ANNUAL CROPS ASSOCIATED WITH PERMANENT CROPS242 COMPLEX CULTIVATION PATTERNS243 LAND PRINCIPALLY OCCUPIED BY AGRICULTURE, WITH SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF NATURAL VEGETATION244 AGRO-FORESTRY AREAS


Proposed excel structure (on-shore)

Nuts code Area (km2) (km2) Wind power supply curve (km2) Wind power supply curve (km2) Wind power supply curve

123456789

1011121314

Special case (e.g. Natura 2000)Corine classification 1 Corine classification 2

G

erm

any

Den

mar

k

O

nsho

re


“Bottom-up” approach: proposal for a benchmark to derive a minimum value of an environmental compatible wind energy potential in Europe

• Use CORINE landcover data to classify the existing sites for wind turbines in Denmark, Germany and Spain.

• Derive percentage land-use cover per category, compare overlapping land categories.

• Use average/maximum value per category to calculate available land for each European country.

• Use wind power supply curves and wind-turbine characterictics to calculate potential for 2020-2030.

• Define offshore potential for various combinations of sea-depths and land-distance thresholds.


Questions for the workshop participants (I)

• What can EEA do to answer the question: “Establish an environmental

compatible wind energy potential for Europe for 2020-2030”

• Proposed calculation methodology sound?, alternatives?, will results

have added value to existing knowledge?

• Biodiversity/Natura 2000 sites: do we need a special sensitivity case to

estimate effect on potential when excluded?

• Proposed bottom-up approach: – country data available?

– Can the current land-use of wind turbines in Denmark, Germany and Spain serve as a benchmark to derive a minimum value for an environmental compatible wind-energy potential for all European countries, using CORINE landcover data and ECMWF meteorological data?

• Offshore: restrictions at sea (e.g. ship routes, fishing, oil- , gas-, sand

etc winning, coastal line, nature protection (e.g. wadden sea)), how to

handle?


Questions for the workshop participants (II)

• Presentation of results, proposals?, proposals for specific sensitivity analyse ?

• Recommendations how to organize review proces?


Thank You!

proposed eea approach to establish an environmental- compatible wind energy potential in europe hans...

Documents