propositioning a tentative argument to iran to stop further nuclear-proliferation

7/28/2019 Propositioning A Tentative Argument To Iran To Stop Further Nuclear-Proliferation

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Partha P. Choudhury American Foreign Policy Process 1MLINS 6354-N LEC April 8

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Propositioning A Tentative Argument To Iran To Stop

Further Nuclear-Proliferation

Executive Summary

This is a communique dispatched to the Secretary of State, John Kerry, on ways to perceive the

stand-off the US is having with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Approaching a time when it is the most

formative to pursue peace in the inception of the 2nd

term in office of President Obama, we as a nation and

as a people are being forthcoming when it comes to engaging with the Iranians regarding their history of

proliferation in a restive region known as the Middle East in order to pursue lasting peace for all

posterities and to hopefully engage with the Iranians regarding the ramifications of what their becoming a

possible nuclear state might do for this region and to effectively dissuade them from doing so using

diplomatic tact and cooperation.

Facts, Background and Analysis

From the vantage point of anyone who keeps abreast of world affairs in any nation, approaching

the issue of nuclear non-proliferation whenever Iran is considered cannot help but feel that future warfare

with Iran over the matter of nuclear capability is also mutually reinforcing, since these two phenomena go

hand in hand together. It is my objective to clearly and concisely to dedicate this paper to the topic of

recommending to Secretary of State John Kerry a manifold policy that will efficaciously deter Iran from

obtaining fissile capability in order to weaponize militarily and will have a deleterious effect on any sort

of saber-rattling from the triad of states that are mobilizing for war: the US, Iran and the state of Israel.

The beginning of the country of Iran having any sort of nuclear capability was incepted in the

1950s in a civil accord between the Iranian government and the US under the Atoms for Peace

agreement started by former President Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1957. At a time of the Cold War which

was marked by an arms-race between the United States and the Soviet Union, this program ensured the

viability of nuclear energy being harnessed for peaceful civilian purposes rather than to stockpile nuclear


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weapons that had fissile material in them that could be directed at an enemy opponent at a time of

conflict. It is also worth noting that the Iranians have been a signatory of the Treaty On The Non-

Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, or the NPT Treaty, as of 1968. Even after the Iranian Revolution in

the late 1970s, Iran continues to state that it abides by the spirit of the treaty and that theyve allowed

themselves to be privy to most of the protocols of the IAEA, or the International Atomic Energy Agency,

and have let them tour many of the facilities that Iran contends are places where they conduct nuclear

research for peaceful purposes. With that said, one has to keep in mind that after the Iranian Revolution

in which the Shah was deposed, the American notion of the current Iranian theocratic regime being

belligerent to America is well known. But approaching that sentiment has to come with a thorough and

clear understanding of the history that the US has had Iran. There has been formidable resentment on the

behalf of the Iranian civilian population who were suffering poverty and languishing under the rule of the

Shah while he lived in leisure at the expense of the poor Iranian. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, whose

autocratic rule ensured that a coterie of elites would be guaranteed patronage, had his grip on Iran

bolstered by the Americans who had previously deposed a very popular Prime Minister Mosaddegh for

nationalizing the oil industry. In a region that has seen its share of American influence being bandied

about and is restive at that, Iran is a country thats very mindful of its ancient history ranging from the

ancient Persians and wants to ascribe a greatness and esteem to their fatherland. Being anathema to the

Americans by way of the sanctions regimen and the cessation of talks has not yet proved tentative results

in getting a re-shuffling of the government to a democracy thats pro-American, and one has only to look

at the history of sanctions being superimposed on other countries to see that they ultimately dont work.

To begin, the Secretary has to look at a disclosure by Iranian dissidents in August of 2002 who

had publicly stated in a conference in Washington, D. C. that the Iranian government had started to

secretly proliferate nuclear enrichment at two undeclared facilities south of Tehran, namely Natanz and

Arak1 during the presidency of Khatami. In tandem with its safeguards agreement that Iran has with the

1http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/iran403/background.html
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IAEA, the IAEA Chief Mohamed ElBaradei cited that Iran had legally breached this agreement2 and that

they had to plausibly prove to the IAEA that their civilian nuclear energy program did not have a military

component to it. This in turn made Iran duty-bound now to disclose all of its nuclear activities to the

agency. Iranspresent failure to do this has led to the United Nations first enacting sanctions against

Tehran in 20063because of Irans breach of the IAEA board of governors agreement that Iran halt all of

its uranium enrichment. In an IAEA report published in 2011, the board of governors concluded that Iran

did indeed have a nuclear program that was seeking to enrich uranium to the point of it being fissile

ready, or enabled to the point of it being weaponized for an arsenal. It is the IAEAs contention that Iran

who was just in breach, is now openly flouting and defying several provisions of the NPT Treaty4,

specifically Articles 2 and 3, thereby justifying the US, EU, and UN sanctions. The gist of Article 2

states that any non-nuclear weapon state agrees not to accept from any source whatsoever nuclear

weaponry or explosive devices and adjures them not to acquire or manufacture such weaponry or receive

any assistance in their quest to do so. The provisions of Article 3 state that each non-nuclear weapon state

must be in accord with the IAEA for the safeguards agreement to all nuclear activities within their border

which succinctly states theyre duty-bound to always and utterly be for peaceful uses, not towards

facilitating weaponry via weapons-grade enrichment of any uranium, and Article 3 also has a provision of

the banning of exporting such technology. This in turn presents a violation of Article 4 of the NPT

Treaty, which enables nuclear-weapons-free states the right to have civilian nuclear facilities for peaceful

purposes such as for medicine and energy. And in a turn for the worse, Iran has started installing

advanced centrifuges at Natanz, according to a new report authored by the IAEA in February of 2013 5.

Now lets get to the Iranian understanding of this dilemma. Iran doesnt particularly oppose the

idea that it has breached the aforementioned protocols but contends that theyre currently in non -

compliance. What Tehran asserts is that the obligation set forth by the board of governors of the IAEA

2http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3327065.stm

3http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8792.doc.htm

4http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPTtext.shtml

5http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21537206
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3327065.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3327065.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3327065.stmhttp://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8792.doc.htmhttp://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8792.doc.htmhttp://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8792.doc.htmhttp://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPTtext.shtmlhttp://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPTtext.shtmlhttp://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPTtext.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21537206http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21537206http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21537206http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21537206http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPTtext.shtmlhttp://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8792.doc.htmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3327065.stm


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has been unwarranted hence theres not a necessity for the sanctions mandated by the United Nations

Security Council. The safeguards agreement set forth by the IAEA, the very conduit of this organization

which ensures Iran the right to pursue nuclear activities, has been complied with. Iran maintains its own

view, the inalienable right of any sovereign nation to peaceably use nuclear technology, as being

vouched for in Article 4 of the NPT Treaty. In addition to that, the second provision of Article 4 obligates

that supplier states (or states that have a ready nuclear-capability) face an obligation to help non-nuclear

states in assisting in their pursuit of peaceful civilian nuclear technology. Furthermore, in a bit of

legalistic gymnastics, Iran concludes that the IAEA provisions and the NPT Treaty are mutually exclusive

from each other and are alternate agreements and is in the spirit of both of these accords. A total and

full-blown violation of these charters have not yet occurred by the Iranians, according to them. Citing

history, the Iranians bring to mind the South Africa, which had voluntarily gotten rid of its nuclear

arsenal, and South Korea who were found in breach of the NPT Treaty6. With both countries having good

relations with the US, the impulse to sanction them utterly by the UN, US, or the EU wasnt the first

precautionary measure. However with a country such as Iran that the US refuses to acknowledge

diplomatically, the ready impulse to question motives as to why it is that the Iranians have actively sought

to have a nuclear program in the first place and why theyre so secretive about their facilities isnt given

the discretion that the Iranians feel that they deserve. They contend that its their inherent right to do so.

Going by the analysis of a State Department Desk Officer who is able to see that the US and the

Iranians are incrementally on the precipice of a dangerous war, I assert that warfare against the Iranians

based upon the notion that they most likely are proliferating militarily would hearken to a future that none

in the US would want, and assuredly that the Iranian regime or its people dont want either. If after all,

Iran is ultimately successful in its quest for nuclear proliferation, the Mideast region of the world would

see drastic changes that might not work in the favor of the US and would even offset a war from which

there can be no retraction due to the fact that the world community as a whole is vehement when they say

6http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2010_01-02/Goldschmidt
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that they dont Iran to have a nuclear arsenal. But the process of ginning up a war is bolstered by a call to

action in a nation and theyre mostly preceded by fervent nationalism. Secretary Kerry, youve got to

make sure that there is a methodical calm with which you dictate this delicate business, as making a

decision to go to war against a nation such as Iran should be deftly avoided at all costs. Truthfully, the

American government can salvage peace with the Iranians and quite possibly procure a sort of guarantee

that Iranian subsidization of terror groups internationally that the US consider unlawful combatants, can

also not be a mainstay whenever Iranians have a stake outside of their territory. The perception and

apprehension needed for this necessitates a cold and sobering fact that with volatility in a region beset by

so many conflicts, the US cannot afford in its treasury coffers the financial capital to wage a war in the

first place. As financial markets are veering steadily towards a serious emergency, the world community

can scarcely afford to ameliorate their own situations and though the US is a country that is still

understandably sustaining itself economically, the risk of dipping into the treasury for a war would

squarely go against not only the domestic policies that the President has got in mind, but would offset

newly recovered gains that the US has painstakingly secured for itself. Since the history of modern

finance in a world economy having 34 bubbles, the 35th will most likely hinge upon a commodity that

no one can live without: food. With there being a direct correlation between food prices and fuel prices7,

upon an unnecessary war in which grand expanses of land will have been laid waste past the point of any

sort of redemption due to warfare, humanity can scarcely go to war of this scale.

Foreign Policy Recommendations

I present to Secretary Kerry four manifold forward-leaning policy suggestions designed to

maneuver around the impasse that the US is currently having with the Iranians that I earnestly hope will

procure for the US as well as the Iranians a tentative peace plan that will offset any sort of prospective

warfare between our nations. On the face of it, these four recommendations might be peace under the

guise of an armistice, however that is not at all my objective. I understand that the ultimate peace and

7http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/faq/ffpfaqs.htm
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reconciliation between the US and the Iranians might very well have different ramifications and

components to it, I believe these four policy recommendations might very well secure a peace that is

bound by integrity, honesty as well as candor between our nations. I will also make it a point to gauge

any sort of repercussions or blowback these policy suggestions might accrue. However I will be

mindful of their far-reaching benefits and will convey these suggestions in this communique that Im

dispatching to the Secretary.

Policy #1

Policy 1 is meant to be an overture to the Iranians to mend their ways and ameliorate any sort of

misconceptions that theyre conveying to the world community regarding their present nuclear capability.

Due to the Iranians being a signatory of the NPT Treaty and being privy to the IAEA inspectors, theyve

got to understand that theyve got an obligation not to proliferate. Under these contractually binding

agreements, any non-nuclear-weapons state that is actively seeking to proliferate will promptly be faced

with censure. I also understand that this is also an issue of national pride, integrity and prestige that Iran

is cultivating, hence the readiness to insist that theyre taking these measures in conjunction with their

inherent rights as a sovereign nation. However with their being bound contractually to the NPT Treaty,

complying with the spirit of the IAEA protocols and provisions is an obligation that they cannot avoid.

Though many policymakers in the US and around the world gripe at the fact that Iran has got any sort of

nuclear capability to begin with, we should not deny the Iranians the right to pursue peaceful nuclear

activities for the benefits of energy, science and medicine. What the Iranians should be doing is

complying with the IAEA as a sort of reciprocity that ensures that theyll abide by the rules of the game,

hence there should not at all be a reticence to make a full disclosure to the IAEA regarding the full

capability of Tehrans nuclear facilities. That would allow for an accounting and abiding by the compact

of the IAEA would ensure that spent fuel is not being diverted to a weapons-site and is properly disposed

of.


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Policy #2

Hence, if theres compliance with Policy 1, Policy 2 would then ultimately defang any sort of war

posturing by our countries and render it untenable and unnecessary. In regards to the diplomatic realm,

we can at least pursue a tentative agreement to incept the normalization of relations between the US and

Iran. The grievances the US has with Iran range from their clandestine terror advocacy and Israel. We

have got to understand that no matter how much we might presently detest the notion of Iran being a

formidable country in the Mideast and in the world, the Iranians are free to exercise their rights as a

sovereign nation. In a world where there are so many cultural and anthropological differences between

nations, Iran feels justification that its conducting its activities as a state that shouldnt face censure from

the world community as well as the US. If we were to establish a dialogue between the Iranians, then that

would be a formative first-step that would dispel the conceptualization of a war from the very beginning.

I feel that the Secretary needs to keep that in mind and it is something that should be particularly

conveyed to the Iranians in a meaningful way thats genuine.

Policy #3

In an age of globalization, there can be many steps taken in order to reestablish ties with the

Iranians not only between governmental bodies but civil groups such as student and professional groups

that are the most open to a sort ofglasnostand exchange of ideas whereas the host governments might

have enmity between each other. International cultural exchanges meant to foster goodwill have often

proven formative and fruitful whenever it comes to dispelling notions of hostility whenever rival powers

are concerned. This in turn can exchange human capital allocation between our two countries for students

as well as professionals.


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Policy #4

The world body including the US, the EU and the United Nations can start the easement of

sanctions against Iran that has crippled their economy and devalued their currency, the rial. It is evident

from history that sanctions superimposed upon countries meant to change their behavior have almost

never proven to be successful. Iran, seemingly despotic as though we may vilify the government to be, is

not a third-world nation and there is still a lot of affinity and loyalty that the Iranians have for their

national government. Though a reason for the sanctions regimen is meant to be taken as a precautionary

measure by the United Nations and the European Union to stop Iran from proliferating nuclear weapons,

the US sanctions against Iran has got to do with a nationalistic rivalry that our nations have with each

other. If we were to pursue the normalization of ties and make an overture of reciprocity of trade, this in

turn can be a formative step to get a country to change its behavior. The likelihood of trading partners

waging war against each other is not very likely as theyve both got trading interests that are mutually

symbiotic, hence warfare would be deftly avoided in just a situation. It can also mean the influx of an

influence that can usher in reforms in the country that not only the US would find beneficial but the

Iranian civil population as well. This of course lends itself to the Iranian subsidization of terror groups

such as Hezbollah and the war chattel that they send to Syrian government, which would be promptly

curtailed once the notion of peace that is lasting and just can be achieved.

Assessment of Possible Blowbacks From Aforementioned Policy Suggestions

For each of the policy objectives that Ive outlined to the Secretary, there might be repercussions

or blowbacks that could arise from implementing these policies. ForPolicy #1, a possible blowback

could be hesitation from the Iranians regarding their being candid about their nuclear activities. Though

under the specter of the world community, the government of Iran feels that it has an inherent right to

pursue nuclear activities and could readily dismiss IAEA agents who seek to monitor these facilities

where nuclear capability might be weaponized. But I feel that due to the Iranians being a signatory to the


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NPT Treaty and being privy to the IAEA, Iran has no choice but to yield to this demand. ForPolicy #2,

not everyone between our two countries have got the same mentality towards peace as others do. Both in

the US, among conservatives and neoconservatives, and a little bellicose diatribe from President

Ahmadinejad meant to save face and the dignity of the Iranians, can lead to a war in which a leader feels

that theyve got no other choice but to wage warfare. Getting the Iranians to change their tune overnight

regarding terror groups or Israel simply is not a possibility, but by establishing a dialogue with them can

be a formative first step that can salvage peace from the onset. ForPolicy #4, the easement of sanctions

on Iran between the world community with the US might be met with conflict from domestic groups in

the US who have had it in their minds to vilify Iran and perpetuate the sanctions regimen. Another issue

to grasp is that the biggest commodity that the Iranians have is oil, and due to issues regarding the

environment and ecological groups in the US might very well want to normalize relations with the

Iranians but dont want to incrementally aid to climate change by facilitating the oil industry. These are

all possible blowbacks.

Summation

Secretary Kerry, I hope that youve been mindful of these possible solutions and alternatives and

their ramifications that Ive presented to you. The primer on the history that Iran has had with the US is

something that you are very well aware of. But Ive presented to you four forward-leaning policy

suggestions that I feel that you often dont get to hear from associates in the State Department, the White

House or your former Senate colleagues. Due to your background with the military while serving in

Vietnam, youve seen atrocities being committed and have publicly testified to their veracity. And I

know that due to your affiliation with the US government, theres no uniformity when it comes to

ideologies presented to you on a daily basis. And like you, Im insistent that the Iranians shouldnt

proliferate their nuclear capability to make an arsenal of weapons. But starting a war against a nation

whose people have expatriates in our own country and whose youthful population have an affinity for the

US, you should be able to distinguish that the belligerence of the Iranian government isnt emblematic of


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its people. Case in point, the sham 2009 Iranian elections in which the majority of the Iranian population

was reform-minded and voted for Mousavi however got Ahmadinejad for another term. The Iranian

regime isnt wholly representative of the values of the people and I feel that youve got the diplomatic tact

to convey clearly to the Iranians the incentives not to proliferate in their nuclear facilities.

As methods of warfare are getting more refined and the amount of high casualties can be inflicted

with a touch of a button, the institution of warfare is incrementally getting more methodical and sterile.

And resolving the Iranian dilemma by means of warfare goes squarely against the assertions and

conjectures that Ive presented to you. Although theres a plurality of opinion on this matter, I sincerely

hope that youll take my advice and present the array of incentives to the Iranians and hopefully resolve it

peaceably.


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Works Cited (American Political Science Format)

1. PBS. Background To A Crisis. 2005.http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/iran403/background.html . Johnson, Zachary K.

2. BBC. Iran Signs Up To Nuclear Checks. 2003. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3327065.stm.3.

United Nations. Security Council Resolution 1696. 2006.http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8792.doc.htm

4. United Nations. Treaty On The Nonproliferation Of Nuclear Weapons. 1968.http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPTtext.shtml

5. BBC. Iran installing new Natanz centrifuges, says IAEA. 2013.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21537206

6. Arms Control Association. Safeguards Noncompliance: A Challenge for the IAEA and the UN Security Council. 2010.http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2010_01-02/Goldschmidt

7. IMF. Impact of High Food and Fuel Prices on Developing CountriesFrequently Asked Questions.2012. http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/faq/ffpfaqs.htm
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