proprietary economic modeling and impact analysis …...proprietary economic modeling and impact...

Proprietary Economic Modeling and Impact Analysis

for the Comox Strathcona Regional District

Executive Summary

April, 2005

Prepared by

S y n e r g y M a n a g e m e n t G r o u p L t d.Business and Economic Development Consultants

www.synergy1.ca1 800 838 4808, or 1 250 758 6399 Fax 1 250 751 8640

E-mail: [email protected] : 201 Selby, V9R 2R2

Victoria : 1027 Pandora Ave., V8V 3P6Vancouver : 708 – 1155 W. Pender St., V6E 2P4

Associate Offices : Terrace, Kamloops

Funded and Supported by : Western Economic Diversification Canada, (BC) Ministry of Sustainable Resource Management, Coast Sustainability Trust, Comox Valley Economic Development

Society (CVEDS), and Rivercorp Economic Development Corporation

Economic Modeling and Impact Analysis for the Comox Strathcona Regional District Prepared by Synergy Management Group Ltd. 2

Table of Contents 3 Introduction : Why This Innovative Economic Modeling?

3 What are the Deliverables of this Modeling Process?

4 Economic Modeling Process and Deliverables

5 What Reports Are Generated, and What Do They Tell Us?

5 The Comox Strathcona Regional District (‘CSRD’)

7 What is the Net Wealth Balance Sheet?

8 The Results of the Comox Strathcona RD Net Wealth Balance Sheets (1996 and 2001)

11 Simplified Overview of the Regional Inflow and Outflow of Funds; The Basis of the Net Wealth Balance Sheet

13 Detailing the Four Components of the Net Wealth Balance Sheet Flow of Funds

16 The 1996 Comox Strathcona RD Net Wealth Balance Sheet

19 The 2001 Comox Strathcona RD Net Wealth Balance Sheet

22 Inflow and Outflow of Funds, 1996 and 2001 Comparables

25 Comox Strathcona RD Employment, By Sector (1996 and 2001)

27 Comox Strathcona RD: Economic Dependencies and Impact Ratios

30 The ‘What If’ Employment Impact Model, and the Comox Strathcona RD

34 Comox Strathcona Regional District Projected Basic Sector Future Employment

36 Future Employment Impact on the Comox Strathcona Regional Net Wealth Balance Sheet

36 What is Included in the Inventory of Studies for the Comox Strathcona RD?

39 Evaluation of Comox Strathcona RD Opportunities

42 Economic Development, Assessment and Planning (‘EDAP’), by Economic Sector

43 Economic Development, Assessment and Planning (‘EDAP’), by Economic Sector, by Opportunity Groupings

45 Economic Development, Assessment and Planning (‘EDAP’), by Economic Sector, by Specific Identified Opportunities

50 Implementation Readiness and Business Case Analysis of Specific Opportunities

53 Where to from Here?

This Executive Summary encompasses the key findings of The Comox Strathcona Regional District Economic Modelling Report #’s 1 to 5


Introduction : Why This Innovative Economic Modeling?

Economic Development Modeling can best be portrayed as a ‘process’, whereby stages of research, analysis, information compilation and data manipulation are carried out in a fluid progression. The deliverables, as a series of Reports, provide BC’s Ministry of Sustainable Resource Management (‘MSRM’) with statistically sound assessment tools that quantify Regional and resource sector strengths, and an assessment of the relative ability of opportunities to be implemented. More often than not, data is presented in studies and databases, but linking them to develop an economic “map” has not been possible. In this Ministry of Sustainable Resource Management initiative, the economic modeling process is advanced one step further. Proprietary software and innovative economic modeling methodology, data and statistics from well - established sources are used as baseline information in generating a series of ‘economic snapshot’ and ‘predictive’ models. The methods are repeatable, and the results highly comparable between time periods, or between Regions of BC. Any Region, Regional District or grouping of communities, can be analyzed using this ‘Economic Modeling Process’.

What are the Deliverables of this Modeling Process?

Quantifies economic strengths of a Region (or community)

Effective tool to compare economic snapshots of consecutive time periods

Statistically sound measurement of economic well being

Assess the economic needs (or ‘neediness’) of any Region

Provides the ability to focus on priority economic sectors

Unlimited ‘what if’ analysis that can deliver employment impact predictions based on anticipated or realized economic changes

Economic ‘hot spot’ planning tool

Ability to anticipate positive or negative economic change

Human resource planning tool

Justification tool to focus efforts and direct programs and funding on specific economic sectors and in specific BC Regions

User – friendly opportunity / initiative assessment tool that can be put at the disposal of all MSRM planners and program delivery providers

Provides a pre-screening tool as a first stage in assessing opportunities

Clearly identifies the strengths of initiatives, and where a project falls short (weaknesses, risks, threats)

Can facilitate economic opportunities for communities and First Nations by focusing on more realizable ventures and providing a tool for pre-screening initiatives


What Reports Are Generated, and What Do They Tell Us?

Report Contents (1) Regional Net Wealth Balance Sheet

• Proprietary Assessment Model : ‘Wealth Generators’ versus ‘Wealth Consumers’, and a Quantification as to what a Region is Contributing to the Provincial Economy

• Regional Inflow and Outflow of Funds (2) Annotated Review of Opportunities from Past Studies and Reports

• Inventory and Assessment of Regional Economic Development Reports and Studies : Annotated Review

• Opportunities for Resource Based Economic Development • Commonality and Key Findings regarding Opportunities

(3) Detailed Review of Opportunities from Past Studies and Reports

• In – Depth Strengths – Weaknesses - Threats, Opportunities, Action Plans and Economic Benefits as Derived from all Identifiable Socio – Economic Studies and Reports carried out for the Region

(4) Evaluation of Opportunities

• Assessment of Economic Opportunities within the Framework of a Ten Stage Regional Economic Development Model

• Measuring the ‘Implementation Readiness’ of Opportunities • Business Case Analysis regarding Specific Identified Opportunities

(5) Analysis of Regional Employment

• Employment, by Sector (1996 and 2001) • Regional Economic Ratios (Dependency, Diversity, Vulnerability) • ‘What If’ Employment Impact Proprietary Model that Estimates

‘Trickle – Down’ Employment Change Throughout the Region as a result of any Change in any one or more Sectors

• Projected Basic Sector Employment Change (2001 – 2008) • Basic Sector Future Employment, by Economic Sector • Future Employment Impact on Regional Net Wealth Balance Sheet

The highlights of all the Reports are included in this Executive Summary.

The Comox Strathcona Regional District The Comox Strathcona RD encompasses a large portion of the coastal mainland, reaching across Vancouver Island to the west coast with a total land area of approximately 20,500 sq. kilometres. Forestry and fishing have been the main industries but mining and tourism are also major employers.


CSRD includes the following municipalities in no particular order with the 2001 population;

• the City of Courtenay (18,304), • the Town of Comox (11,172), • the Village of Cumberland (2,618) • the District of Campbell River (28,456), • the Villages of Gold River (1,359), • Sayward (379), • Tahsis (600), and • Zeballos (224)

CSRD encompasses the following communities;

• Merville (2,069) • Royston (1,639) • Union Bay (1,167) • Hornby Island (966) • Fanny Bay (744) • Heriot Bay (625) • Quathiaski Cove (409) • Meadowbrook and Saratoga Beach • Oyster Bay • Oyster River • Shelter Point • Shelter Bay • Stories Beach

First Nations in the region include the Kwakwaka’wakw Bands of We Wai Kai, We Wai Kum, K’omox, Kwiakah and the Tlowitsis/Mumtagilia, the Nuu-chah-nulth Bands of Ka:’yu:’k’t’h’/Che:k:tles7et’h’, Ehattesaht, Nuchatlaht, and Mowachaht/Muchalaht, and the Salish connected Bands of the Homalco and Klahoose.


What is the Net Wealth Balance Sheet?

The Net Wealth Balance Sheet (‘NWBS’) model encompasses all reasonable, identifiable and measurable inflow and outflow of funds to assure that the impact of all ‘basic’ and ‘non – basic’ economic sectors are integrated. The model accesses over 150 sources of hard data (see ‘Resources, Data Mining and Contacts’) to quantify the flow of funds into, and out of a study Region. The net of the inflow / outflow leaves a net balance, measured in dollars.

Where the inflow of funds from government (i.e. transfer payments to individuals such as EI and Social Assistance, etc., and transfer payments to deliver education, justice, health care, etc.) exceeds the outflow of funds to government (PST, GST, corporate taxes, etc.), then the Region is deemed a Net Wealth Consumer.

Where the inflow of funds from government is less than the outflow of funds to government, then the Region is deemed a Net Wealth Generator.


The Results of the Comox Strathcona RD (‘CSRD’) Net Wealth Balance Sheets (1996 and 2001) Two Net Wealth Balance Sheets were generated for the Region, for 1996 and 2001. The following represents the highlights only. The full analysis of the NWBS efforts are presented later in this Report, along with the actual detailed Balance Sheets results themselves. 1996 2001

Inflow of Funds from Government to Region $ 566,450,659 $ 636,606,743

Outflow of Funds from Region to Government $ 989,114,568 $ 1,086,597,858

Net Wealth Generation (or, Wealth Consumption) $ 422,663,909 $ 449,991,115

In 1996, the Region received $566 million from government while, at the same time, generated $989 million for government. The Region was a Net Wealth Generator of $423 million.

In 2001, using the exact same data model, the Region received $637 million from government, while generating $1,087 million in funding for government. As such, the Region was a Net Wealth Generator of $450 million. Within that five year period, the Comox Strathcona RD‘s economy was a remarkably stable and significant Net Wealth Generator.’ The population growth and enhanced business activity (both existing and new companies) were key in maintaining economic stability. In fact, over a five year period, the Comox Strathcona Regional District increased its Net Wealth Generating Capacity by $27 million. This economic stability is significant, particularly within Vancouver Island / Coast Region’s predominantly resource based economy. The Region generates approximately 40% more revenues for government then it receives from government. The net impact and ‘trickle down’ effect throughout all sectors of the Regional economy are discussed in detail later in this Report when the specifics of the Net Wealth Balance Sheets for 1996 and 2001 are presented.

0200,000,000400,000,000600,000,000800,000,000

1,000,000,0001,200,000,000

1 2 3

2001 Net Wealth Balance Sheet

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1 2 3

1996 Net Wealth Balance Sheet


The results of this Net Wealth Balance Sheet present a quantified economic snapshot of the Region in a very unique style, and one that is statistically sound, and can be used in decision – making, at all levels, for strategic economic development, program and policy planning, remedial strategies for the Region’s economic recovery / growth and economic activity action planning. ‘Stand Alone’ Economic Modeling At the request of both the Comox Valley Economic Development Society (CVEDS) and the Campbell River EDC Rivercorp, Synergy developed a model to isolate, with some reasonable degree of accuracy, the Net Wealth Generating Capability of each ‘stand alone’ area. • The Comox Valley is designated by School District 71, which encompasses Courtenay,

Comox, Cumberland, and Electoral Areas A, B, C and K. • Campbell River City and Area is comprised of School District 72, including Regional

Areas D, J, and H, and the Village of Sayward. Based on averaging total income, personal taxes paid, and labour demographics, the NWBS apportioned solely and separately for the Comox Valley, as well as for the Campbell River City and Area, are as follows. Comox Valley

1996 2001 Monies injected into the region by government

Monies generated for government by the region

Monies injected into theregion by government


$304,380,843 $531,498,236 $330,423,148 $563,985,676

Comox Valley Net Wealth Generator (1996) Comox Valley Net Wealth Generator

(2001) $227,117,393 $233,562,528

• In 1996, the Comox Valley was a Net Wealth Generator of $ 227 million. • This increased slightly to $ 234 million in 2001.

Campbell River City and Area

1996 2001 Monies injected into the region by government


Monies injected into theregion by government


$195,783,564 $341,869,803 $219,193,745 $374,132,785

Campbell River Net Wealth Generator

(1996) Campbell River Net Wealth Generator

(2001) $146,086,239 $154,939,040

• In 1996, the City of Campbell River was a Net Wealth Generator of $ 146 million. • This increased slightly to $ 155 million in 2001.


What Does an Analysis of Two Successive Time Periods Tell Us?

Growth, or shrinkage, of the overall Regional economy

Growth, or shrinkage, of key economic sectors

Predominance on certain economic sectors, and changes over time

Employment levels

Demographics growth, or shrinkage

Levels of unemployment and social assistance

Reliance on key employers

Reliance on government transfer payments and support

Changes in health care, education and other key services

The ability of a Region to generate wealth and contribute towards the BC economy, or vice versa

Economic dependence on BC and Federal funding and services

Changes to the makeup of a Regional economy as precipitated by major events (mill or plant closures or openings, economic downturns, etc.)

Presents economic snapshots for the Region, and changes within the Region over time, that go far beyond the normal SWOT analysis and strategic planning.


A Simplified Overview of the Regional Inflow and Outflow of Funds; The Basis of the Net Wealth Balance Sheet

The basic principal is that funds flow: from government directly to individuals (‘transfer payments to

individuals’) and to communities or administrative agencies that provide services to the Region and to individuals

from individuals back to government

from corporate entities direct to government

from corporate (employers) to individuals within the Region

Basically, the measurable flow of funds has four key modules.

Government to Individuals

Government to Individuals: Education, health care, social assistance, law and security, infrastructure, pensions, employment insurance, WCB and a host of others. These are provided either directly to individuals, or through government offices, administrative agencies, the Regional District or through the communities themselves, all through a series of numerous and often convoluted transfer payments.


Individuals to Government Individuals to Government: Personal income tax, PST, GST, Consumptive taxes (alcohol tobacco, gasoline, etc.), fees and licenses, contributions to EI and CPP, and many other tax and licensing venues.

Corporate Direct to Government

Corporate Direct to Government: Corporate taxes, GST and PST on revenues generated, WCB, employer contributions of EI and CPP, forestry stumpage fees, mining and logging licenses, royalties and capital taxes, amongst others.

Corporate Direct to Individuals Within the Region

Corporate Direct to Individuals Within the Region: Employment (salaries), benefits, corporate pensions, dividends on investments, etc., including funds and benefits from companies located within, and outside the Region.


Detailing The Four Components of the Net Wealth Balance Sheet Flow of Funds

The following is presented to elaborate upon the four components comprising the inflow and outflow of funds.


The Comox Strathcona Regional District Net Wealth Balance Sheets

Two Net Wealth Balance Sheets were generated, for 1996 and 2001 respectively, and the results were compared in order to identify the changes that have occurred as to the economic makeup and snapshot of the Region between 1996 and 2001.

The 1996 Net Wealth Balance Sheet

Regional Net Wealth Balance Sheet for 1996

Source Fed or

Prov

Monies injected into the Region by government

Monies generated for government

by the Region 1 P Education $122,394,000

2 F Municipal Grants-in-Lieu of Taxes: Federal Government and Agencies $726,729

2 P Municipal Grants-in-Lieu of Taxes: Provincial Government and Agencies $988,396

2 Municipal Grants-in-Lieu of Taxes: Other $2,942

2 P Municipal Unconditional Transfers from other Governments: Provincial $3,339,840

2 Municipal Unconditional Transfers from other Governments: Other -

2 F Municipal Conditional Transfers: Federal and Government Agencies $750,305

2 P Municipal Conditional Transfers: Provincial Government $277,522

2 P Municipal Conditional Transfers: Provincial Government Agencies -

2 Municipal Conditional Transfers: Regional and Other Local Governments

$813,052

3 F Regional District Grants-in-Lieu of Taxes: Federal Government and Agencies

$18,780

3 P Regional District Grants-in-Lieu of Taxes: Provincial Government and Agencies

$50,579

3 Regional District Grants-in-Lieu of Taxes: Other $11,538

3 Regional District Unconditional Transfers from Other Governments $55,000

3 P Regional District Conditional Transfers from Other Governments: Provincial Grants

$229,055

3 Regional District Conditional Transfers from Other Governments: Other $28,400

9 F

Municipal and Regional Transfers from Federal Government: Airports Capital Assistance Program and Ports Divesture

$1,141,454

9 F Municipal and Regional Transfers from Federal Government: Industry $1,057,500



Source Fed or

Prov



by the Region

9 F Municipal and Regional Transfers from Federal Government: Public Works $1,153,607

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: Employment Insurance $49,682,000

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: GST Tax Credit $8,859,000

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: Old Age Security $58,096,000

4 F/P Government Transfer Payments to Persons: CPP $68,828,000

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: Family and Youth Allowances

$131,000

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: War Veterans’ Allowances $5,659,200

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: Scholarships and Research Grants

$2,620,000

4 P Government Transfer Payments to Persons: Social Assistance, Income Maintenance

$39,358,000

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: Canada Child Tax Benefit $19,061,000

4 P Government Transfer Payments to Persons: Provincial Refundable Tax Credits

$13,816,000

4 P Government Transfer Payments to Persons: Grants to Benevolent Associations

$26,776,400

4 F/P Government Transfer Payments to Persons: Miscellaneous Transfers & Other

$15,300,800

5 P Workmen’s Compensation Claims $19,009,000

6 F/P Health Care: Acute, Continuing, Facilities, Adult Mental Health, Public and Preventative Health

$62,692,689

6A F/P

Health Care: Emergency Room GP’s, Continuing Medical Education, Retention Funding for GP’s, Recruitment Funding

$147,400

7 F/P Security and Law Enforcement $3,474,900

8 F First Nations Treaty (or Land Claims) Settlements -

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Department of Indian and Northern Affairs

$25,430,384

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Fisheries and Oceans Canada $1,520,250

9 F First Nations Health Transfers from Health Canada $1,330,906

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Human Resource Development $542,695



Source Fed or

Prov



by the Region

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Industry – Western Diversification $80,505

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Justice -

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Transport Canada -

10 P Infrastructure, Roads, Highway Maintenance $10,995,831

2 P Municipal Collections for Other Governments: School Districts $24,842,846

2 P Municipal Collections for Other Governments: Other $2,324,465

11 F/P Personal Income Taxes $337,880,000 12 P Forestry Stumpage Paid $62,818,669 13 P Workmen’s Compensation Premiums $36,935,282

14 F Employment Insurance, employee deductions $35,833,945

15 F Employment Insurance, corporate contribution portion $50,167,523

16 F/P Canada Pension Plan, employee deductions $36,170,848

17 F/P Canada Pension Plan, employer portion $36,170,848

18 F Consumptive Taxes: GST on General Sales Taxes $64,324,354

18 P Consumptive Taxes: PST on General Sales Taxes $78,835,800

18 F/P Consumptive Taxes: Alcoholic beverages and tobacco taxes $22,656,267

18 F/P Consumptive Taxes: Amusement Tax $496,097

18 F/P Consumptive Taxes: Gasoline and Motive Fuel Taxes $36,318,781

18 P Consumptive Taxes: Liquor Profits $14,855,400 18 F Consumptive Taxes: Customs Duties $10,041,386

18 P Consumptive Taxes: Remitted Gaming Profits $6,565,170

18 F Consumptive Taxes: GST on other Consumption taxes $2,413,177

18 P Consumptive Taxes: PST on other Consumption taxes $2,358,000

18 P Mining and Logging Tax $5,528,200 18 P Capital Taxes $9,956,000 18 P Motor Vehicle Licenses $8,331,600 18 F/P Natural Resource Taxes and Licenses $105,638 18 P Health Drug Insurance Premiums $21,536,400 18 F/P Corporate Taxes $81,647,872

Totals $566,450,659 $989,114,568 Net Difference $422,663,909


The 2001 Net Wealth Balance Sheet


Source Fed or

Prov


Monies generated for

government by the Region

1 P Education $107,505,000

2 F Municipal Grants-in-Lieu of Taxes: Federal Government and Agencies $1,164,098

2 P Municipal Grants-in-Lieu of Taxes: Provincial Government and Agencies $1,228,953

2 Municipal Grants-in-Lieu of Taxes: Other $38,101

2 P Municipal Unconditional Transfers from other Governments: Provincial $2,517,828

2 Municipal Unconditional Transfers from other Governments: Other -

2 F Municipal Conditional Transfers: Federal and Government Agencies $209,783

2 P Municipal Conditional Transfers: Provincial Government $138,064

2 P Municipal Conditional Transfers: Provincial Government Agencies $43,265


$680,591


$45,303


$50,578

3 Regional District Grants-in-Lieu of Taxes: Other $109,802

3 Regional District Unconditional Transfers from Other Governments -


$89,764

3 Regional District Conditional Transfers from Other Governments: Other

$72,773

9 F


$1,385,000

9 F Municipal and Regional Transfers from Federal Government: Industry $510,649

9 F Municipal and Regional Transfers from Federal Government: Public Works

$1,921,703

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: Employment Insurance $43,702,000

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: GST Tax Credit $8,274,000



Source Fed or

Prov




4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: Old Age Security $76,399,000

4 F/P Government Transfer Payments to Persons: CPP $91,865,000


$344,400

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: War Veterans’ Allowances $6,297,600


$2,484,600


$32,457,000

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: Canada Child Tax Benefit $26,378,000


$5,392,000


$39,925,800


$27,675,000

5 P Workmen’s Compensation Claims $29,015,000


$73,180,769

6A F/P


$2,758,427

7 F/P Security and Law Enforcement $4,361,036

8 F First Nations Treaty (or Land Claims) Settlements -


$23,633,712

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Fisheries and Oceans Canada $1,499,610

9 F First Nations Health Transfers from Health Canada $4,122,384

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Human Resource Development $2,814,595

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Industry – Western Diversification $139,622

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Justice -

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Transport Canada -



Source Fed or

Prov




10 P Infrastructure, Roads, Highway Maintenance $16,175,933

2 P Municipal Collections for Other Governments: School Districts $25,308,156

2 P Municipal Collections for Other Governments: Other $3,104,086

11 F/P Personal Income Taxes $312,868,000 12 P Forestry Stumpage Paid $78,396,318 13 P Workmen’s Compensation Premiums $30,724,012

14 F Employment Insurance, employee deductions $28,774,688

15 F Employment Insurance, corporate contribution portion $40,284,563

16 F/P Canada Pension Plan, employee deductions $59,874,576

17 F/P Canada Pension Plan, employer portion $59,874,576

18 F Consumptive Taxes: GST on General Sales Taxes $90,275,407

18 P Consumptive Taxes: PST on General Sales Taxes $90,036,000

18 F/P Consumptive Taxes: Alcoholic beverages and tobacco taxes $21,859,658

18 F/P Consumptive Taxes: Amusement Tax $319,308

18 F/P Consumptive Taxes: Gasoline and Motive Fuel Taxes $37,208,090

18 P Consumptive Taxes: Liquor Profits $15,793,200 18 F Consumptive Taxes: Customs Duties $9,114,890

18 P Consumptive Taxes: Remitted Gaming Profits $12,546,000

18 F Consumptive Taxes: GST on other Consumption taxes $925,452

18 P Consumptive Taxes: PST on other Consumption taxes $3,173,400

18 P Mining and Logging Tax $2,681,400 18 P Capital Taxes $11,291,400 18 P Motor Vehicle Licenses $8,413,200 18 F/P Natural Resource Taxes and Licenses $905,378 18 P Health Drug Insurance Premiums $22,017,000 18 F/P Corporate Taxes $120,829,100

Totals $636,606,743 $1,086,597,858 Net Difference $449,991,115


Inflow and Outflow of Funds, 1996 and 2001 Comparables Funding Inflow

Funding Inflow into the Region from Government: 1996 vs 2001

Source Fed or

Prov 1996 2001

1 P Education $122,394,000 $107,505,000

2 F Municipal Grants-in-Lieu of Taxes: Federal Government and Agencies $726,729 $1,164,098

2 P Municipal Grants-in-Lieu of Taxes: Provincial Government and Agencies $988,396 $1,228,953

2 Municipal Grants-in-Lieu of Taxes: Other $2,942 $38,101

2 P Municipal Unconditional Transfers from other Governments: Provincial $3,339,840 $2,517,828

2 Municipal Unconditional Transfers from other Governments: Other - -

2 F Municipal Conditional Transfers: Federal and Government Agencies $750,305 $209,783

2 P Municipal Conditional Transfers: Provincial Government $277,522 $138,064

2 P Municipal Conditional Transfers: Provincial Government Agencies - $43,265


$813,052 $680,591


$18,780 $45,303


$50,579 $50,578

3 Regional District Grants-in-Lieu of Taxes: Other $11,538 $109,802

3 Regional District Unconditional Transfers from Other Governments $55,000 -


$229,055 $89,764

3 Regional District Conditional Transfers from Other Governments: Other $28,400 $72,773

9 F


$1,141,454 $1,385,000

9 F Municipal and Regional Transfers from Federal Government: Industry $1,057,500 $510,649

9 F Municipal and Regional Transfers from Federal Government: Public Works $1,153,607 $1,921,703

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: Employment Insurance $49,682,000 $43,702,000

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: GST Tax Credit $8,859,000 $8,274,000

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: Old Age Security $58,096,000 $76,399,000


Funding Inflow into the Region from Government: 1996 vs 2001

Source Fed or

Prov 1996 2001

4 F/P Government Transfer Payments to Persons: CPP $68,828,000 $91,865,000


$131,000 $344,400

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: War Veterans’ Allowances $5,659,200 $6,297,600


$2,620,000 $2,484,600


$39,358,000 $32,457,000

4 F Government Transfer Payments to Persons: Canada Child Tax Benefit $19,061,000 $26,378,000


$13,816,000 $5,392,000


$26,776,400 $39,925,800


$15,300,800 $27,675,000

5 P Workmen’s Compensation Claims $19,009,000 $29,015,000


$62,692,689 $73,180,769

6A F/P


$147,400 $2,758,427

7 F/P Security and Law Enforcement $3,474,900 $4,361,036


$25,430,384 $23,633,712

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Fisheries and Oceans Canada $1,520,250 $1,499,610

9 F First Nations Health Transfers from Health Canada $1,330,906 $4,122,384

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Human Resource Development $542,695 $2,814,595

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Industry – Western Diversification $80,505 $139,622

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Justice - -

9 F First Nations Government Transfers: Transport Canada - -

10 P Infrastructure, Roads, Highway Maintenance $10,995,831 $16,175,933

Totals $566,450,659 $636,606,743 Net Difference $70,156,084


Funding Outflow

Outflow of Funds from the Region to Government : 1996 vs. 2001

Source Fed or

Prov 1996 2001

2 P Municipal Collections for Other Governments: School Districts $24,842,846 $25,308,156

2 P Municipal Collections for Other Governments: Other $2,324,465 $3,104,086

11 F/P Personal Income Taxes $337,880,000 $312,868,000 12 P Forestry Stumpage Paid $62,818,669 $78,396,318 13 P Workmen’s Compensation Premiums $36,935,282 $30,724,012

14 F Employment Insurance, employee deductions $35,833,945 $28,774,688

15 F Employment Insurance, corporate contribution portion $50,167,523 $40,284,563

16 F/P Canada Pension Plan, employee deductions $36,170,848 $59,874,576

17 F/P Canada Pension Plan, employer portion $36,170,848 $59,874,576

18 F Consumptive Taxes: GST on General Sales Taxes $64,324,354 $90,275,407

18 P Consumptive Taxes: PST on General Sales Taxes $78,835,800 $90,036,000

18 F/P Consumptive Taxes: Alcoholic beverages and tobacco taxes $22,656,267 $21,859,658

18 F/P Consumptive Taxes: Amusement Tax $496,097 $319,308

18 F/P Consumptive Taxes: Gasoline and Motive Fuel Taxes $36,318,781 $37,208,090

18 P Consumptive Taxes: Liquor Profits $14,855,400 $15,793,200 18 F Consumptive Taxes: Customs Duties $10,041,386 $9,114,890

18 P Consumptive Taxes: Remitted Gaming Profits $6,565,170 $12,546,000

18 F Consumptive Taxes: GST on other Consumption taxes $2,413,177 $925,452

18 P Consumptive Taxes: PST on other Consumption taxes $2,358,000 $3,173,400

18 P Mining and Logging Tax $5,528,200 $2,681,400 18 P Capital Taxes $9,956,000 $11,291,400 18 P Motor Vehicle Licenses $8,331,600 $8,413,200 18 F/P Natural Resource Taxes and Licenses $105,638 $905,378 18 P Health Drug Insurance Premiums $21,536,400 $22,017,000 18 F/P Corporate Taxes $81,647,872 $120,829,100

Totals $989,114,568 $1,086,597,858 Net Difference $97,483,290

The Region generated $ 98 million more in outflow of funds to governments in 2001 then it did in 1996.


0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Numbe r of Empl oy e e s

Agricult ure & relat ed

Logging & Forest ry

Manuf act uring Indust ry

Transport at ion & Commun

Ret ail Trade

Business Service

Educat ional Service

Accom., Food & Beverage

C o mo x St rat hco na R D Emp lo yment b y Sect o r

1996 2001

Comox Strathcona RD Employment, By Sector (1996 and 2001)

Categories 1996 2001 Difference % Agriculture & related 877 1917 1040 118.67

Fishing & Trapping 1380 948 -432 -31.32

Logging & Forestry 3088 3265 177 5.72

Mining, Quarry & Oil Well 725 695 -30 -4.18

Manufacturing Industry 4299 3638 -661 -15.37

Construction Industry 3640 3311 -329 -9.05

Transportation & Communications 2194 2725 531 24.21

Wholesale Trade 1295 1183 -112 -8.68

Retail Trade 5972 6198 226 3.78

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 1749 2025 276 15.79

Business Service 1704 2359 655 38.41

Government Service 3164 3350 186 5.88

Educational Service 2688 3495 807 30.03

Health & Social Service 3538 5231 1693 47.86

Accommodation, Food & Beverage 3849 4430 581 15.09

Other Services 3315 3072 -243 -7.34

Total Industries 43477 47840 4364 10.04


Major Events in Comox-Strathcona RD 1996 – 2001

• The only area to undergo a decline in its service sector during 2001 was the Vancouver Island/Coast region (-3.5%). That decline, alongside the significant employment reduction in the goods sector (-16.7%), brought about a considerable jump in the unemployment rate from 7.8 to 9.1 percent. The change in the unemployment rate for the Comox-Strathcona Regional District was from 11.0% to 12.0%, however the average employment income increased.

• The forestry industry has been subject to high levels of unemployment. Approximately 30% of the people employed in planting and harvesting and over 25% of those employed in manufacturing had been laid off at some time between January 2000 and the date of the census in May of 2001. Tahsis, in particular, had experienced major job losses.

• Tourism employment grew by more than 100 jobs in the Comox Valley from 1996 to 2001. • The Comox and Campbell River airports have both been attracted new levels of passenger

air service. • Commercial fishing and aquaculture continue to be important activities with many shell fish

farms south of Comox and with fin fish farms north of Campbell River. • The relatively high productivity in aquaculture took a leap in 2001, when there was a 50

percent increase in farmed salmon. There are 31 fish farms near Campbell River. Indirect employers include fish feed and transportation companies as well as net maintenance facilities.

• The Myra Falls mine near Campbell River shut down in December 2001. However, it did re-open in March 2002 although there was a net loss of 60 jobs.

• Population decreased in the region from 1996 to 2001 from 97,666 to 96,131. Tahsis, Gold River and Sayward experienced drastic job and population declines from 1996 to 2001.

• The median age for the region increased by 4 years to 39.9 from 1996 to 2001 indicating more young individuals leaving the area to look for better employment opportunities. However the residents are generally younger than the more southerly regional districts, which attract the retiring population.

• The CSRD had the most construction per capita from 1994 to 1998 before slipping to fourth in the region in the most recent period.

• CSRD has been among the fastest growing regional districts for the last several decades. • The construction of the new Island Highway caused considerable commercial construction to

take advantage of the highway’s new alignment with commercial building permits peaking in 1997 for CSRD.

• Growth in public sector and related industries increased substantially from 1996 to 2001 in the Comox Valley with an additional 875 jobs in the sector including increases in health and social services and education which countered the loss of jobs in government service.

• Cutbacks by the provincial government and at CFB Comox accounted for about 280 government services job losses in the Valley.

• More than 200 jobs were lost in retail trade in the Valley between 1996 and 2001.


Comox Strathcona RD: Economic Dependencies and Impact Ratios

Income Dependency Income Dependency is the percentage of basic sector income for the Region that is attributable to each basic sector. Because CSRD encompasses areas that are

different in terms of sector dependencies, it was determined that, for presentation purposes, where there is significant differences between the two, the charts within this chapter be segregated.

Courtenay-Comox Campbell River

Basic Economic Sector

2001 1996 2001 1996

Forestry, logging, pulp and paper, sawmills, value – added

11 13 29 36

Mining, extraction

1 1 4 6

Fishing and trapping

2 3 2 3

Agriculture and food processing

3 2 2 1

Tourism, accommodation, retail

6 5 7 7

High Tech

0 0 0 0

Public sector, health, education, government

30 28 20 17

Other basic industry, manufacturing, transport

3 4 2 2

Construction

5 8 5 7

Film 0 0 0 0

Non-employment income, investment income, corporate pensions

20 20 16 13

Transfer payments, employment insurance, social assistance, old age security, government pensions

18 16 11 7

Comparing Courtenay Comox to Campbell River :- • Forestry, pulp and value added generate $0.36 (1996) to $0.29 (2001) of every after tax

$1.00 for Campbell River. The dependence has decreased by 20% between 1996 and 2001.

• Comox Courtenay has a far lower dependence on forestry $0.13 (1996) to $0.11 (2001) • Construction is a significant sector. ‘High tech’ and ‘film production’ are minimal. • Retirement income and EI/SA payments are more predominant in Courtenay Comox,

with $0.36 (1996) to $0.38 (2001) of every dollar derived from these sectors.


Diversity Index This index measures the extent to which a Region is diversified. The Diversity Index, calculated from the income dependencies, shows the degree to which a community relies on one or a few sectors. (A Diversity Index for a given Region can be compared with the indices calculated for other Regions of British Columbia). The Diversity Index is between 0 and 100. If the community were entirely dependent on one sector, the index would be zero; if it depended equally on all sectors, the index would be 100. Generally, small communities have lower indices than large ones. For most Regions, the indices range from a low of 52 to a high of 81. Diversity Index 2001 1996 1991 Courtenay Comox 68 70 74 Campbell River 70 66 71 The Diversity Index for Courtenay Comox has been decreasing slightly, from 74 (1991) to 68 (2001). This indicates a higher dependence on a specific economic sector, and, based on the ‘Income Dependency Ratios’ highlighted on the previous page, it would appear that the public sector and retirement communities have generated this shift. Otherwise, both areas within the CSRD are close, in terms of diversity. Forestry Vulnerability This index measures the vulnerability towards a general negative economic impact resulting from a potential downturn in the forestry economy in a Region. A high value is indicative that an area will experience greater difficulties (than Regions with lower indices) if and when their forestry sectors decline. As reference points (1996), Powell River had 48%, Chilliwack had 6% and Victoria had an index of 1%.

Forest Vulnerability 2001 1996 1991 Courtenay Comox 13 14 Not tracked Campbell River 36 48 Not tracked Campbell River’s Forest Vulnerability has declined by 25% between 1996 and 2001, down to an index of 36. Courtenay Comox has remained constant at 13-14.

Direct Tourism Ratio In many instances, the impact of tourism employment, particularly between tourism sectors, is difficult to measure. The DTR assumes that accommodation is the base of tourism enhancement in a Region. With a DTR of 4.50, this indicates that for every 10 new, direct tourism jobs in accommodation only, an additional 45.0 direct tourism jobs would be created in non-accommodation (stores, restaurants, car rental agencies, etc.) to service the predicted increase in tourist – days activity. CSRD has improved dramatically in this sector. Direct Tourism Ratio 2001 1996 1991 Courtenay Comox 4.50 3.20 Not tracked Campbell River 4.39 3.40 Not tracked


Employment Ratio Employment Impact Ratios for the Region identify the number indirect jobs created for every direct, basic sector job generated. For every 10 logging jobs created or lost, 2.1 indirect jobs will be created or lost as well. The ‘Ratios’ are sufficiently close that Courtenay Comox and Campbell River are combined below.

Category

2001 1996

Logging

1.21 1.24

Pulp and Paper

1.69 1.45

Wood Manufacturing

1.31 1.22

Mining

1.32 1.40

Technology

1.27 1.16

Agriculture and Food

1.15 1.13

Tourism (non - accommodation tourism)

1.07 1.06

Public Sector 1.14 1.08

Construction 1.28 1.25


The ‘What If’ Employment Impact Model, and the Comox Strathcona RD

Synergy Management Group Ltd.’s copyrighted model has been developed to measure the impact of job change in one or more sectors and how they interact and impact upon all other economic sectors. This model can readily demonstrate a number of ‘what if’ scenarios of employment changes within any one particular sector, or the combined net employment changes resulting from changes within a number of different economic sectors. The model utilizes the four tools for the Region;- the top five Community Income Dependency Ratios; the Regional Diversity Index, ; the Employment Impact Analysis; and The Direct Tourism Ratio. (BC Stats)

How to Read the ‘What If’ Chart Example Only: A downturn in forestry resulting in a projected loss of 50 direct jobs would ‘trickle – down’ to impact 60.50 direct, indirect and induced jobs (no out migration), 62.30 if there was ‘some’ out migration, and 64 jobs if most impacted workers left the Region. The exact reverse scenario applies to forestry job gains. Results between charts can be added for cumulative, multi – sector predicted job changes (e.g. simply add the data for 25 jobs gained in forestry and subtract 15 jobs lost in tourism = net gain or loss of jobs). It is incumbent upon the reader, when reviewing any specific sector growth (or shrinkage), to extract the appropriate employment impact numbers from the ‘what if’ job impact charts prepared for that sector. For example, if the job creation predictions for forestry represents 500 jobs, then the chart line item for 100 jobs ‘x’ 5 would be indicative of all the ‘trickle down’ (direct, indirect and induced) jobs that would be created. The key ‘employment – based economic sectors that are reviewed herein using the ‘What If’ Model are:-

• Forestry, both primary and value – added

• Agriculture and food processing

• Tourism

• Construction

• Public sector (government and public institutions, all levels)

These have been determined as priority sectors based on an analysis of ‘Economic Dependencies and Impact Ratios (2001), as well as a review of reports and studies carried out for the region.


Forestry

Job No Migration Average Migration Migration Change Change Indirect Induced Total Change Indirect Induced Total Change Indirect Induced Total

25.00 25.00 5.30 4.30 34.60 25.00 5.30 6.60 36.90 25.00 5.30 9.00 39.3050.00 50.00 10.50 8.50 69.00 50.00 10.50 13.30 73.80 50.00 10.50 18.00 78.50

100.00 100.00 21.00 17.00138.00 100.00 21.00 26.50147.50 100.00 21.00 36.00157.00250.00 250.00 52.50 42.50345.00 250.00 52.50 66.30368.80 250.00 52.50 90.00392.50500.00 500.00 105.00 85.00690.00 500.00 105.00 132.50737.50 500.00 105.00 180.00785.00

Agriculture and Food Processing


25.00 25.00 3.80 1.80 30.60 25.00 3.80 3.40 32.20 25.00 3.80 5.00 33.8050.00 50.00 7.50 3.50 61.00 50.00 7.50 6.80 64.30 50.00 7.50 10.00 67.50

100.00 100.00 15.00 7.00122.00 100.00 15.00 13.50128.50 100.00 15.00 20.00135.00250.00 250.00 37.50 17.50305.00 250.00 37.50 33.80321.30 250.00 37.50 50.00337.50500.00 500.00 75.00 35.00610.00 500.00 75.00 67.50642.50 500.00 75.00 100.00675.00

Tourism (non accommodation induced)


25.00 25.00 1.80 1.30 28.10 25.00 1.80 2.30 29.10 25.00 1.80 3.30 30.1050.00 50.00 3.50 2.50 56.00 50.00 3.50 4.50 58.00 50.00 3.50 6.50 60.00

100.00 100.00 7.00 5.00112.00 100.00 7.00 9.00116.00 100.00 7.00 13.00120.00250.00 250.00 17.50 12.50280.00 250.00 17.50 22.50290.00 250.00 17.50 32.50300.00500.00 500.00 35.00 25.00560.00 500.00 35.00 45.00580.00 500.00 35.00 65.00600.00

Construction


25.00 25.00 7.00 2.40 34.40 25.00 7.00 4.30 36.30 25.00 7.00 6.30 38.3050.00 50.00 14.00 4.80 68.80 50.00 14.00 8.60 72.60 50.00 14.00 12.50 76.50

100.00 100.00 28.00 9.50137.50 100.00 28.00 17.30145.30 100.00 28.00 25.00153.00250.00 250.00 70.00 23.80343.80 250.00 70.00 43.10363.10 250.00 70.00 62.50382.50500.00 500.00 140.00 47.50687.50 500.00 140.00 86.30726.30 500.00 140.00 125.00765.00


Public Sector Employment


25.00 25.00 3.40 2.40 30.80 25.00 3.40 4.50 32.90 25.00 3.40 6.60 35.0050.00 50.00 6.80 4.80 61.60 50.00 6.80 9.00 65.80 50.00 6.80 13.30 70.10

100.00 100.00 13.50 9.50123.00 100.00 13.50 18.00131.50 100.00 13.50 26.50140.00250.00 250.00 33.80 23.80307.60 250.00 33.80 45.00328.80 250.00 33.80 66.30350.10500.00 500.00 67.50 47.50615.00 500.00 67.50 90.00657.50 500.00 67.50 132.50700.00

Direct Tourism Ratio (‘DTR’…accommodation induced) In this specialized model, the DTR assumes that accommodation is the base of tourism enhancement in a Region. With a DTR of 4.45, this indicates that for every 10 new, direct tourism jobs in accommodation only, an additional 44.5 direct tourism jobs would be created in non-accommodation (stores, restaurants, car rental agencies, etc.) to service the predicted increase in tourist – days activity. CSRD has an exceptionally high DTR of 4.45. 100 new accommodation jobs would create 498 to 534 direct tourism jobs across all non – accommodation businesses servicing the tourism trade.

Accom No Migration Average Migration Migration Jobs x 4.45 DTR Indirect Induced Total x 4.45 DTR Indirect Induced Total x4.45 DTR Indirect Induced Total

25.00 111.25 7.80 5.60124.65 111.25 7.80 10.00129.05 111.25 7.80 14.50133.5550.00 222.50 15.60 11.10249.20 222.50 15.60 20.00258.10 222.50 15.60 28.90267.0075.00 333.75 23.40 16.70373.85 333.75 23.40 30.00387.15 333.75 23.40 43.40400.55

100.00 445.00 31.20 22.30498.50 445.00 31.20 40.10516.30 445.00 31.20 57.90534.10 Terminology and Definitions 1 Changes, as depicted on the ‘what if’ sector charts herein, account for the full ‘trickle – down’ impact to all other sectors (‘basic indirect’ and ‘non – basic’) within a community or Region when any direct (‘basic’) direct jobs are gained or lost. There is also an impact quantification for a stable, or in-migrating or out-migrating workforce. All options are presented within the generated ‘what if’ charting. Term Definition Change in Employment Change The number of direct jobs gained or lost as a result of a new

economic opportunity, or economic setback (mill closure, etc.).

Indirect For every direct job, gained or lost, ‘indirect’ represents the number of indirect or secondary jobs gained or lost, based on pre-set ‘trickle down’ employment impact ratios determined for each sector. 2

Induced This represents the impact of ‘basic’ resource sector jobs lost or gained within only the local ‘non basic’ economy. For every direct or indirect job gained or lost, the local economy is

1 Community Dependency Ratios, Ministry of Finance and BC Stats, 1991, 1993, 1996, 2001


Term Definition impacted by people spending more or less for local goods and services, and therefore these local jobs are impacted with more, or less staff to support local sales, or government offices to service an increasing or decreasing workforce.

The Impact of a Migrating Workforce No Migration All of the above scenarios regarding changes in employment

must also be measured by movement of the workforce. No migration indicates that, in a gain situation, the local or Regional workforce will take up the employment slack and provide all the labour pool to supply new jobs being created. In a job loss scenario, the implication here is that people will not migrate out of the area, but will seek other employment, undertake entrepreneurship or live on government transfer payments (Employment Insurance, Social Assistance), or simply retire.

Average Migration As the above, but an impact factor is built in to reflect some migration into the community to take advantage of job opportunities, or, in the case of negative economic events, some residents will migrate out in search of alternate employment.

Migration The indication herein is that new jobs being created by an economic opportunity will be filled, to a significant degree, by newcomers migrating into the Region. Alternatively, most workers impacted by a negative event will leave the Region seeking other employment.


Comox Strathcona Regional District Projected Basic Sector Future Employment Several sources and methods were used to develop estimates of future Regional employment. While the prediction of future employment is not a ‘precise science’, the results are useful as a guideline to government and economic development planners as to the direction of, and potential for, direct and ‘trickle down’ future job creation. Method # 1 : Economic Opportunities as Identified in Past Studies and Reports, AND Impacted by Current Events and Economic Trends in the Region

5 Year Job Creation Sectors Low High

Agriculture Aquaculture and Fisheries Total

Commercial Fisheries 0 0 Finfish Aquaculture 0 0

Shellfish Aquaculture 0 60 Processing 0 175

Retail 0 0 Energy and Mining Total

Mining and Mineral 0 0 Oil and Gas 0 0

Energy 0 24 Forestry Total

Harvesting 0 4 Silviculture

Tenures Primary Processing 0 30

Value-added 0 506 Botanical Forest Products 0 10

Services Retail and Wholesale 0 0

Retirement Living 0 + Technology

Computers and Media 0 0 Information and data processing services 0 1000

Tourism and Recreation Total Water-Based 0 0 Land-Based 0 0 Snow-Based 0 0

Cultural Tourism, Cruise Ship Servicing 0 150 Touring 0 0

Transportation Total Air 50 200

Land 0 0 Water 0 700

Other – including government, education, health, professional services 0 478

Sector Job Total 50 3,337


Method # 2 : Building Upon the Vann Struth Vancouver Island and Comox Valley Economic Profile Reports Using this methodology, employment change is predicted as a range :- job losses of 1,435 to job creation of 1,380. Best Case

Sector Employment, 2001 Projected Changes Net New Basic Sector Percentage Change

Years 2003-2008 Employment

Logging and Forestry 4,645 155 4,800 3.34

Mining 840 84 924 10.00

Fishing 1,040 156 1,196 15.00

Agriculture, Food 1,580 237 1,817 15.00

Miscellaneous Mfg 400 20 420 5.00

Construction*** 2,587 - 2,587 -

Tourism 2,777 278 3,055 10.01

Public Sector 10,300 - 10,300 -

Other Sectors ** 17,930 450 18,380 2.51

Total 42,099 1,380 43,479 3.28 Worst Case

Sector Employment, 2001 Projected Changes Net New Basic Sector Percentage Change Years 2003-2008 Employment

Logging and Forestry 4,645 (542) 4,103 (11.67)

Mining 840 - 840 -

Fishing 1,040 (52) 988 (5.00)

Agriculture, Food 1,580 - 1,580 -

Miscellaneous Manufacturing 400 - 400 -

Construction*** 2,587 - 2,587 -

Tourism 2,777 - 2,777 -

Public Sector 10,300 (515) 9,785 (5.00)

Other Sectors ** 17,930 (326) 17,604 (1.82)

Total 42,099 (1,435) 40,664 (3.41) ** 'Other Sectors' include transportation, communications, technology, wholesale, retail, professional services, 'other’ '*** Construction job loss/creation may actually appear under 'Other Sectors' but was not provided by Vann Struth as a separate sector in job loss/creation percentages.


Future Employment Impact on the Comox Strathcona RD : Regional Net Wealth Balance Sheet Keeping in mind that the Comox Strathcona RD was a ‘Net Wealth Generator’ of $ 450 million in 2001, and that future employment creation ‘guestimates’ range up to 3,337, the following analysis of ‘Future NEBS Employment Impact’ projects that, for example, 2,000 additional direct and indirect jobs created will increase CSRD’s Net Wealth Generation by 14.17%, and CSRD would become a Net Wealth Generator of $ 514 million.

Jobs Created 100 250 500 750 2000 3000 Net Wealth Generated, 2001 449,991,115 449,991,115 449,991,115 449,991,115 449,991,115 449,991,115

Net Wealth Generated, Future 453,178,615 457,959,865 465,928,615 473,897,365 513,741,115 545,616,115

Net Change $ 3,187,500 7,968,750 15,937,500 23,906,250 63,750,000 95,625,000

Net Increase % 0.71 1.77 3.54 5.31 14.17 21.25 What is Included in the Inventory of Studies for the Comox Strathcona RD? A total of 74 studies and reports (primarily 1998 and up until present) that address economic development and opportunities were identified and reviewed. For purposed of this analysis, the studies have been grouped into the following sections: • General (covers more than one economic sector)

• Agriculture

• Aquaculture and Fisheries

• Energy (including ‘Oil and Gas’) and Mining

• Forestry (including Value-added)

• Tourism and Recreation

• Transportation

General cross-sector studies and Forestry dominated, with 23 and 23 reports each, followed by Tourism with 11 studies, Transportation with 7 and Aquaculture and Fishing with 6 studies. Energy / Mining and Agriculture had 2 studies each.


Key Findings: Opportunities Agriculture • Agri-tourism • Agro-forestry • Food Manufacturing • Niche Market Foods • Bottled Water Aquaculture and Fisheries • Shellfish Farming including First Nations ventures • Value-added Seafood Processing • Land-based Aquaculture • Finfish Aquaculture • Limited Commercial Fleet expansion • Commercial and recreation supplies and services Energy and Mining • “Green Power” (including wind, solar, fuel cells) • Small-scale Hydro Power • Coalbed Methane and Coal Fired Power • Offshore Exploration • Landfill Gas, Refuse, Wood-waste Power Generation, Ethanol Production Plant • Fabricated Metal Manufacturing • Dimension Stone Forestry • Small scale harvesting, value – added manufacturing and custom sawmilling • Veneer slicing plant • Botanical Forest Products and value – added processing, including First Nations

involvement in this sector • Prefab home, stair and handrails manufacturing • Community Forest License • Crafts and salvage / driftwood accessories production • Log and Timber Frame Houses • Value-added Village/Co-operative • Log Yard/Handling/Storage • Forestry Contracting • Specialty Wood Drying • Furniture – solid wood, ready-to-assemble • Flooring – solid wood strip and plank • Specialty Products • Relocation of secondary manufacturing to develop industrial colony • Woodlot Co-operative • First Nations Joint Ventures • Shake and Shingle Services • Nursing and Residential care • Retail and Wholesale • Retirement Living


Technology • Information and Data Processing Services • High Technology • Motion Picture and Sound Recording Tourism and Recreation • Lodges – sportsfishing, high-end • Guided Wildlife Viewing, Ecotourism • Recreation Fishing • Ocean and Whitewater Kayaking • Equipment Rental and Land and Water Shuttle Services • Heritage and Cultural Tourism - to appeal to European and Asian client base, including

events, interpretive tours and craft development • Enhanced Marine Activities;- scuba diving, wind surfing, guided fishing, cruising • Cruise Ship Visits and Tourism Events, Pocket Cruise Industry • Land and Marine Hut-to-hut • Trail Development – continuation of the West Coast Trail, Nootka Island • Motorized Adventures • Accommodations and Restaurants • Retreats, Holistic Experiences and Spas • Boat Moorage, Public Docks and Marina • Amusement, Gambling, Urbanized recreation • Staging Areas • Retail • Joint Ventures with First Nations • Visitor Information Centres and Kiosks • Land Activities Transportation • Air Cargo • Related Services to Air Transportation • Development of Industrial Lands Adjacent to Airport • Related Warehousing • Ground Transportation

Deep Water Moorage Facility


Evaluation of Comox Strathcona RD Opportunities

Ten Stage ‘Regional Economic Development The following chart represents a Ten Stage ‘Regional Economic Development Model’, a yardstick with which to measure any Region’s economic development activities (from strategic planning to opportunity implementation) and economic potential. As well, it is used to deliver a ‘gaps analysis’ as to a Region’s ‘economic development readiness’, and an evaluation of the ‘implementation readiness’ of identified opportunities.

Process continued on the next page…


Ten Stage ‘Regional Economic Development (continued)


The ‘Economic Development Modeling’ Process has progressed through an identification and documentation of reports and studies carried out for the study Region, to this next stage, the evaluation of the opportunities themselves.

This process has logically arrived at a ‘focusing/ funneling down’ stage.

• Within the Region’s key economic sectors, has there been

adequate and focused strategic planning and opportunity sector prioritization carried out so as to be able to spotlight viable and implementable opportunity groupings / clusters?

• Within each of the Region’s key economic sectors, have the opportunity groupings / clusters themselves been researched so as to be able to focus onto selective opportunities within each cluster?

• How far has the economic development, assessment and planning of identified opportunities been carried out?

• Have previous studies delivered sufficient background, research, feasibility and action planning so as to consider these opportunities ‘implementation ready?’

This report works to respond to the above questions, and carries out the evaluation in three distinct stages. It delivers the results within the framework of the Ten Stage ‘Regional Economic Development Model’ as shown on the previous page, and reflects the ‘focusing / funneling down’ methodology discussed above.

1. Economic Development, Assessment and Planning (‘EDAP’), by economic sector

2. Economic Development, Assessment and Planning (‘EDAP’), by economic sector, by opportunity groupings (clusters)

3. Economic Development, Assessment and Planning (‘EDAP’), by economic sector, by specific identified opportunities

Within the main content of this Report that follows the Executive Summary, source studies have been cross – referenced with the number designations 1 to 74. All studies have been reviewed and the key findings presented in two Reports available under separate cover.

• Comox Strathcona RD Economic Opportunities – Annotated • Comox Strathcona RD Economic Opportunities – Appendix (In Depth

Review) The key findings are presented herein in a series of user – friendly charts on the following pages.

Economic Sectorsto

Economic Sector Groupings / Clusters of

Opportunities to

Specifically Identified

Opportunities


Economic Development, Assessment and Planning (‘EDAP’), by Economic Sector

Sector Regional Baseline

Economic Change Consultations and Consensus

Managing Regional Growth

Socio – economic studies?

Opportunity studies? Key

sectors and areas of opportunity

identified? SWOT analysis done?

Impact and vulnerability

assessed? Linkage analysis between economic sectors?

Key sectors quantified?

Impact Report done?

Regional input process carried

out? Identification of opportunities as well as barriers

for growth? Stakeholder consensus reached?

Identified course of action

for future economic

development? Identified

opportunity clusters?

Agriculture Yes Yes Partially Partially. Aquaculture and Fisheries

Yes Yes Yes, with some gaps

Yes, with some gaps

Energy and Mining

Yes Yes Partially Very little identified

Forestry Yes Yes Yes Yes. Marginal gaps may exist

Services Yes Yes Partially Very little identified

Technology Yes Yes Partially Some identified Tourism and Recreation

Yes Yes Yes Yes. Marginal gaps may exist

Transportation Yes Yes Partially Partially • All sectors have been very well developed in terms of profiling, baseline

development, and identifying the impact of economic change. • Services and technology, not typically identified separately as they are not

resource sectors, have been given separate attention due to the significance of their growing relevance in terms of economic growth, especially in more urbanized areas. More focused work on these sectors is warranted.

• Aquaculture, Forestry and Tourism are well developed in all areas with only a few

gaps. • Air and land transportation, specifically to

those opportunities related to the expansion of the Comox Valley Airport, have been well addressed. Some gaps exist in consultation and a thorough plan for managing regional growth.

• Energy and mining requires more work be done

in consultation and planning for regional growth.


Economic Development, Assessment & Planning (‘EDAP’), by Economic Sector, by Opportunity Groupings

Sector / Cluster

Feasibility and Prioritization Strategic and Action Planning

Pre-feasibility of opportunities carried out?

Opportunities prioritized?

Strategic Planning done? Champions identified? Gameplan developed?

Economic benefits quantified? Agriculture Beverages Yes Very little identified Farms Yes Very little identified Processing Yes Very little identified Retail Yes Very little identified Aquaculture and Fisheries

Commercial Fisheries

Some identified Very little identified

Finfish Aquaculture

Yes, with some gaps Some identified

Shellfish Aquaculture

Yes, with some gaps Yes

Processing Yes, with some gaps Some identified Retail Yes, with gaps Very little identified Energy and Mining

Mining and Mineral


Oil and Gas Some identified Very little identified Energy Some identified Very little identified Forestry Harvesting Yes No Silviculture Yes Very little identified Tenures Yes Yes Primary Processing

Some identified Yes

Value – Added Yes Yes Botanical Forest Pr.

Yes Some identified

Services Retail and Wholesale


Retirement Living (all things related)

Yes, but with some gaps Very little identified

Technology Computers and Media


Information and Data Processing

Yes, but with some gaps Very little identified

Tourism and Recreation

Water – Based Yes Yes, but with a few gaps Land – Based Yes Yes Snow – Based Yes Yes, however not a strong opportunity Cultural Yes Yes Touring Yes Yes, but with a few gaps


Sector / Cluster

Feasibility and Prioritization Strategic and Action Planning

Pre-feasibility of opportunities carried out?

Opportunities prioritized?

Strategic Planning done? Champions identified? Gameplan developed?

Economic benefits quantified? Transportation Air Yes, with a few gaps Yes, with some gaps Land Yes, with a few gaps Yes, with some gaps Marine Some identified Partially addressed The opportunity groupings / clusters that have been well explored and reported upon in terms of feasibility and strategic / action planning include the following:- • Shellfish aquaculture • Forest tenures • Primary processing • Value-added forestry • Botanical forest products • All tourism sectors • Air and land transportation The opportunity groupings / clusters that have been reasonably explored and reported upon in terms of feasibility and strategic / action planning, but have some identified gaps, include the following:- • Agriculture • Finfish aquaculture • Aquaculture processing • Harvesting • Silviculture • Retirement living • Information and data processing services The weakest opportunity groupings / clusters in terms of having had feasibility and planning carried out include the following:- • Commercial fishing • Fisheries retail • Energy and mining, oil and gas • Retail and wholesale • Computers and media • Marine transportation


Economic Development, Assessment and Planning (‘EDAP’), by Economic Sector, by Specific Identified Opportunities

Most opportunities have not been packaged for funders (private and public sector) or partners. Few have any components of Business Plans completed. Further, this analysis does not include any privately funded (and not accessible) studies carried out for any of the opportunities cited herein.

Sector / Cluster / Opportunity

Feasibility Analysis Packaging for Funders Business Plan

Feasibility work carried out

(markets, trends, role modeling,

human resources, financial viability,

benefits, infrastructure

issues, risk assessment, SWOT)?

Funding sources identified? Private

funders and partners? Investor Presentation designed? Partnering

and / or funding commitments or

interest generated? Leveraged funding?

Implementation strategy? Financial

budgets? Risk management plan? Funding and / or

partnering scenario developed? Regional

awareness? Implementation plan, timelines?

Agriculture Niche market foods/organic

Marginal work completed

No No

Agri-tourism Marginal work completed

No No

Agro-forestry and agro-forestry centre

Some work completed

No No

Food manufacturing Yes, with a few gaps Marginal work completed

No

Animal production Very little work completed

No No

Farmer’s/Fisherman’s market


No Some implementation work, but no Business Plan

Bottled water Some work completed

No No

Aquaculture and Fisheries

Minor commercial fleet expansion

Yes, with a number of gaps

No No

Value-added seafood processing

Yes, with a few gaps No No

Finfish Aquaculture/Land-based aquaculture

Yes, with a number of gaps

Very little done Some implementation work, but no Business Plan

Shellfish farming/First Nations ventures

Yes, with a few gaps Very little done Marginal work completed

Fresh seafood sales Some work completed

No No

Commercial and recreation supplies and services

Very little done No No

Energy and Mining

















Offshore exploration Some components done

No Marginal work done

Small scale power production

Partially done, with some gaps


Coalbed methane and coal fired power

Some components completed

No No

Dimension stone Marginal work done No No Fabricated metal manufacturing

Marginal work done No No

Forestry Small scale harvesting Yes No Some components

of a Business Plan completed

Small scale value-added

Partially, with some gaps

No Some components of a Business Plan completed

Community Forest Licenses

Yes Partially Mostly completed

Veneer slicing plant Marginal work completed

No No

Botanical Forest Products

Yes Very little done Very little done

Value-added Village/Co-operative

Yes, with some gaps No Some implementation work, but no Business Plan

Boat and Canoe Building School/boat building


No No

Prefab house, stair and handrail manufacturing


No No

Log and Timber frame houses


No No

Furniture – solid wood and ready-to-assemble


No No

Flooring – solid wood strip and plank


No No

Specialty Wood Drying/kiln


No Marginally

Forestry contracting Yes, with a few gaps No Yes with a few gaps Window sash and door Marginal work

completed No No

Log Yard/handling/storage


No No

Other specialty wood products


No No

















Relocation of secondary manufacturing in Campbell River to develop a colony

Yes Yes, but no formal investor presentation

Mostly yes

Woodlot Co-operative Marginal work completed

No No

Primary sawmilling Marginal work completed

No No

First Nations Joint Ventures


No Yes

Shake and Shingle Marginal work completed

No No

Services Nursing and Residential care


No No

Retail and Wholesale Marginal work completed

No No

Retirement Living Partially, with some gaps

Some funding/partners identified


Technology Information and Data Processing Services


Some funding/partners identified

No

High Technology Marginal work completed

No No

Motion Picture and Sound Recording


No No

Tourism and Recreation

Destination Resorts/ Sportfishing Lodges/ High End

Yes Funding sources partially done

Some marketing and implementation work, but no Business Plan

Gateway to Nootka Sound


No Very little done

First Nations Cultural Tourism

Yes, with a few gaps No Partially with significant gaps

Wildlife Viewing / Ecotourism / Guided Tours

Some components complete

No Some marketing and implementation work, but no Business Plan

Boat moorage/public docks/marina

No No No

Cruise ship industry Some components complete


Hardened Campsites No No No

















Marine Cruising/Pocket Cruiseships



Accommodation & restaurants

No No No

Staging Marginally completed

No No

Scuba Diving Some components complete

No No

Trail Building Some components complete


Joint Ventures with First Nations

Many components complete

No No

Land Adventures – Caving/hiking/biking

Marginally completed

No No

Highway Visitor Information Centre and Kiosks


No A few components completed

Shuttle services – water and land

No No No

Hut-to-hut – land and marine

Yes, with some gaps Some funding identified Some marketing and organization work done, but no Business Plan

Spas and Holistic Experiences - Retreat Centres.

Some market research

No No

Motorized Adventures Some components complete


Equipment rental – kayaking, scuba diving



Artists Centre No No No Guided fishing and hunting

Very little done No No

Kayaking – sea and whitewater



Amusement, gambling, urbanized recreation

Marginal work done No No

















Transportation Air Cargo at Comox Valley Airport

Yes Yes, still needing liaising and commitments

Yes

Air transport related businesses

Yes, with a few gaps No Marketing and implementation work done, but no Business Plan

Deep moorage facility Marginal work done No No Development of industrial land adjacent to the airport

Yes, with a few gaps No Some implementation work done, but no Business Plan

Ground transportation Marginal work done No No


Implementation Readiness and Business Case Analysis of Specific Opportunities

Having successfully narrowed (or ‘funneled’) down the Region’s opportunities by economic sector, then by opportunity grouping within each key economic sector, and then followed by specific opportunity within each opportunity grouping, it was deemed timely to review each specific opportunity itself in terms of its ‘implementation readiness’. Consequently, all identified specific opportunities were assessed and scored. A rating of ‘1’ (lowest) to ‘5’ (highest) was applied to eighteen key opportunity business case characteristics. Each opportunity analysis was carried out several times, independently, and the scores were then averaged. A perfect score is 90. The ‘Opportunity Ranking System’ is presented below.

Rating Criteria

5 Yes, and the research / reports / data substantiates this

4 Probably

3 Maybe

2 Probably not

1 No, and the research / reports / data substantiates this

If an Opportunity Scored….

…..Then the Opportunity was Considered as……

0-20 Not worth pursuing, too little potential or too difficult to implement.

21-40 Idea still needs refinement or research. Worth re-visiting and expanding.

41-65 Reasonably strong opportunity. Certainly worth recommending.

66-90 Highest priority initiative worth working to implement.

It should be noted that, where opportunities may have scored below 66, this is not necessarily a reflection of the viability of the opportunities. Instead, it demonstrates that more work needs to be done in developing the feasibility, benefits, payback potential and realizability of the venture, and to then determine the ability to actually implement the opportunities. Therefore, many of the opportunities that scored close to, but below the ‘high priority’ level should be revisited.

Reasonably strong opportunity.

Certainly worth recommending. Highest priority initiative

worth working to implement. (Score = 41-65 out of 90) (Score = 66 – 90 out of 90) Agriculture Agri-tourism

Agro-forestry Animal Production Farmer’s/Fisherman’s Market Bottled Water

Niche market foods/organic Food Manufacturing

Aquaculture and Fisheries

Minor Commercial Fleet Expansion Commercial and Recreation Supplies and Services Finfish Aquaculture/Land-based Aquaculture Fresh Seafood Sales

Shellfish Farming/First Nations Ventures Value-added Seafood Processing


Reasonably strong opportunity. Certainly worth recommending.

Highest priority initiative worth working to implement.

(Score = 41-65 out of 90) (Score = 66 – 90 out of 90) Energy and Mining

Dimension Stone Fabricated Metal Manufacturing Offshore Exploration Small Scale Power Production Coalbed Methane and Coal Fired Power

None identified

Forestry Small Scale Harvesting Forestry Contracting Woodlot Co-operative Primary Sawmilling Log Yard/Handling/Storage Specialty Wood Drying/Kiln Small Scale Value-added Value-added Village/Co-operative Boat and Canoe Building School/boat building Prefab houses, stair and handrail manufacturing Log and Timber Frame Houses Furniture Flooring Window Sash and Door First Nations Joint Ventures Relocation of secondary manufacturing in Campbell River

Community Forest Licenses Botanical Forest Products

Services Retail and Wholesale Nursing and Residential Care Retirement Living Services

None identified

Technology High Technology Motion Picture and Sound Recording Information and Data Processing Services

None identified

Marine Tourism Marine Cruising/Pocket Cruises Scuba Diving Boat Moorage/public docks/marina Cruise Ship Industry Shuttle services – water and land

Kayaking

Land – Based Tourism

Destination Resorts/Sportfishing Lodges/High end Gateway to Nootka Sound Hardened Campsites Wildlife Viewing/Ecotourism/Guided Tours Accommodation and Restaurants Staging Trail Building Land Adventures – caving/hiking/biking Spas and Holistic Experiences – Retreat Centres Equipment Rentals Amusement, gambling, urbanized recreation

None identified

Winter Tourism None identified None Identified Cultural Tourism

First Nations Culture Tourism/Heritage Tourism Guided fishing and hunting Artists’ Centre Joint Ventures with First Nations

None identified

Touring : Tourism

Motorized adventures Hut-to-Hut – land and marine

None identified


Reasonably strong opportunity. Certainly worth recommending.

Highest priority initiative worth working to implement.

(Score = 41-65 out of 90) (Score = 66 – 90 out of 90) Transportation Air Transport Related Businesses

Development of industrial land adjacent to airport Ground Transportation Deep Moorage Facility

Air Cargo at Comox Valley Airport

Eighteen Business Case Features Utilized Feature Scoring / Rating Criteria

Strengths Are there a number of strong positive selling and ‘realizability’ features of the initiative?

Weaknesses Can the project deal with objections and hurdles, and can they probably be mitigated?

Potential Profitability

Is this a ‘for profit’ initiative? Can it possibly provide returns to government / partners / investors? Is it likely that someone will reach for their cheque book?

Champion Is there a local group, company or organization who will support it ? Implement it? Run it?

Outside Partner Required

Other than for funding, are outside partners required for marketing, distribution, technical expertise, access to resources and markets, etc.?

Evidence of Demand

Are there positive market research indicators? Is there a demonstrated demand? Is this a sector that has ‘staying power’?

Benefits to Region Are there identified and quantifiable economic paybacks? Jobs? Economic stability? Growth?

Raw Materials Availability and cost effectiveness of raw materials?

Infrastructure Needs identified?

Have the initiatives’ infrastructure needs been identified?

Infrastructure in Place

Land, power, roads, transport, environmental, shipping facilities, other?

Least Risks and Hurdles

Are there a large number of parties to bring to the table to make this opportunity happen (if so, this reduces the score)?

Competitive Advantages

Does the Region offer competitive advantages (cost effective land, infrastructure in place, support services, etc)?

Ability to Grow Based on all of the above, does this initiative have the opportunity to grow and diversify over an extended period of time?

Diversification of the Economy

Will this diversify the local or Regional economy? New sectors? Build on existing sectors?

Skilled Labour Is there a pool of skilled labour in light of the needs of the initiative?

Ability to Succeed Based on all of the above, is there a likelihood that the initiative can; a) successfully be brought on stream, b) be funded, c) be partnered, d) be championed, e) diversify / stabilize the economy?

Implementation Plan

Is there an ‘implementation – ready’ plan developed?

Implementation Timelines

With the right conditions and support in place, can this initiative be implemented short term (high score), medium term (mid score), long term (low score)?


Where to from Here?

There is a great deal of information presented in this Executive Summary, as well as in the five individual Reports upon which this summary is based. The results of this economic modeling initiative can assist Community and Regional decision makers in planning for the preservation and / or creation of jobs, and diversifying the Regional economy. Key economic sectors and opportunities as well as economic development strategies are readily identified. Data, which can assist in arriving at program and policy decisions that can impact upon the Region, is provided. Further, this modeling exercise forms the baseline for future comparatives and Regional economic snapshots, as well as economic readiness assessments. As a viable and innovative planning tool, this economic modeling can prove valuable, and can provide the insight and in depth analysis that can allow the Ministry, both planners as well as program delivery personnel, to work with all relevant Regional profile information, quantified economic ‘snapshots’, strategic findings derived from past studies and reports, and insightful analysis work. Special thanks to the Economic Development Offices within the study Region, for their support, and governments (particularly BC’s Ministry of Sustainable Resource Management, and Canada’s Western Economic Diversification), as well as all the providers of information, data and key material that have gone into this initiative.

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