prospects and policies for global food security
TRANSCRIPT
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Prospects and Policies for Global Food Security
Clemens Breisinger
Country Program Leader, Egypt
Senior Research Fellow
IFPRI
BioVisionAlexandria 2016, 12–14 April 2016
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Food Security towards 2050Socioeconomic drivers, climate change,
and global and regional impacts to 2050
Based on a presentation by Keith WiebeSenior Research Fellow
IFPRI
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• IMPACT – an integrated modeling system to assess agricultural and food security scenarios
• Collaboration with all 15 CGIAR centers through GFSF
• Collaboration with other global economic modeling groups through AgMIP
Foresight Modeling
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Socioeconomic drivers Projected pathways to 2100
Source: Downloaded from the RCP Database version 2.0.5 (2015). RCP 2.6: van Vuuren et al. 2006; van Vuuren et al. 2007. RCP 4.5: Clark et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al 2009. RCP 6.0: Fujino et al 2006; Hijioka et al 2008. RCP 8.5: Riahi and Nakicenovic, 2007.
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Changes in diets (SSP2, NoCC)Projected pathways to 2050
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
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Total global food demand (SSP2, NoCC)Projected pathways to 2050
20
10
= 1
.0
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015
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Growth in global cereal production (SSP2, NoCC)Projected pathways to 2050
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
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Modeling climate impacts on agriculture:biophysical and economic effects
General circulation models (GCMs)
Global gridded crop models
(GGCMs)
Global economic models
Δ TempΔ Precip
…
Δ Yield(biophys)
Δ AreaΔ YieldΔ Cons.Δ Trade
Climate Biophysical Economic
Source: Nelson et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2014)
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Climate change impacts on cereal yields differ by region and crop (SSP2)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Maize
Wheat
Cereals
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Net cereal trade and climate change(SSP2)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
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Population at risk of hunger (SSP2, RCP8.5)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
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Improved technologies and practices can help mitigating negative effects of CC
-40.0
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Malnourished Children Pop. at-risk-of-hunger
No till Drought tolerance Heat tolerance
Nitrogen use efficiency Integrated soil fertility mgt Precision agriculture
Water harvesting Sprinkler irrigation Drip irrigation
Crop Protection - insects
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)
Food security(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)
Source: Islam et al. (draft)
Crop yields(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)
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Take away messages
• Significant differences across regions, crops, scenarios
• Economic responses reduce biophysical impacts, but they depend critically on policy and market conditions – and decisions
• Significant challenges for decision makers at all levels
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Three Examples for Evidence-Based Support For Reforming Food Systems at
Global, MENA Regional and Country-Level
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IFPRI Global Food Policy Report 2016
IFPRI – USAID collaboration
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