prospects for man -made fibres prospects for man-made ... · prospects for man -made fibres barry...

ICAC International Seminar 2010, TaipeiICAC International Seminar 2010, TaipeiICAC International Seminar 2010, Taipei

Prospects For Man-made Fibres In A Greener World

Prospects For ManProspects For Man--made Fibres made Fibres

In A Greener WorldIn A Greener World

Barry DaviesBarry DaviesDirector Director –– Fibers, Fibers,

CMAI EuropeCMAI Europe

[email protected]@cmaiglobal.com


Structure of PresentationStructure of PresentationStructure of Presentation

• Introduction to CMAI

• Current fibre market

• Determinants of fibre demand

– Fitness for purpose

– Cost factors

– Green issues: synthetics’ position

• Forecast and conclusions

•• Introduction to CMAIIntroduction to CMAI

•• Current fibre marketCurrent fibre market

•• Determinants of fibre demandDeterminants of fibre demand

–– Fitness for purposeFitness for purpose

–– Cost factorsCost factors

–– Green issues: syntheticsGreen issues: synthetics’’ positionposition

•• Forecast and conclusionsForecast and conclusions


CMAI: Who Are We?CMAI: Who Are We?CMAI: Who Are We?

• Consultants to the worldwide petro-chemical, plastics and fibres industries

– Set up 1979

• Head office in Houston, USA

– Offices in London, Dusseldorf, New York, Singapore, Shanghai, Dubai

• 130 employees, 2000+ client relationships

• “From Fuels to Fashion”, “Well-head to Walmart”

•• Consultants to the worldwide petroConsultants to the worldwide petro--

chemical, plastics and fibres industrieschemical, plastics and fibres industries

–– Set up 1979Set up 1979

•• Head office in Houston, USAHead office in Houston, USA

–– Offices in London, Dusseldorf, New York, Offices in London, Dusseldorf, New York,

Singapore, Shanghai, DubaiSingapore, Shanghai, Dubai

•• 130 employees, 2000+ client relationships130 employees, 2000+ client relationships

•• ““From Fuels to FashionFrom Fuels to Fashion””, , ““WellWell--head to head to

WalmartWalmart””


CMAICMAI’’s Range of Consulting s Range of Consulting

ServicesServices

Market Advisory Services Market Advisory Services MultiMulti--client , Daily, Weekly, Monthly client , Daily, Weekly, Monthly

Consulting Services: prices, costsConsulting Services: prices, costs

Planning Advisory ServicesPlanning Advisory ServicesAnnual World Analyses: capacity Annual World Analyses: capacity

supply/demand supply/demand

Conferences, Conferences, workshopsworkshops

Business Advisory Services Business Advisory Services Single Client Single Client Proprietary StudiesProprietary Studies


Global Fibres and Feedstocks Service

Global Fibres and Feedstocks Global Fibres and Feedstocks

ServiceService• Analysis of global fibre value

chains

– Polyester, nylon, polypropylene, cotton

– Prices, costs: history and forecasts

• Weekly, monthly reports, quarterly supplements

– Many available in Chinese

• Access to CMAI database and consultants

•• Analysis of global fibre value Analysis of global fibre value

chainschains

–– Polyester, nylon, polypropylene, Polyester, nylon, polypropylene,

cotton cotton

–– Prices, costs: history and Prices, costs: history and

forecastsforecasts

•• Weekly, monthly reports, Weekly, monthly reports,

quarterly supplementsquarterly supplements

–– Many available in ChineseMany available in Chinese

•• Access to CMAI database and Access to CMAI database and

consultantsconsultants







– Cost factors











Global Fibre ConsumptionIs Growing Again

Global Fibre ConsumptionGlobal Fibre Consumption

Is Growing AgainIs Growing Again


Man-Made Fibres Dominate Today ManMan--Made Fibres Dominate Today Made Fibres Dominate Today







– Cost factors











What Drives Fibre Demand? What Drives Fibre Demand? What Drives Fibre Demand?

Processing Cost

Fitness

for Purpose

Image

“Eco”

BrandFibre

Demand

Cost

Fibre Price

Performance

Aesthetics


Meeting User Requirements Comes First

Meeting User Requirements Meeting User Requirements

Comes First Comes First

• Synthetic fibres meet needs of today’s consumer• Easy care, washability

• Lightweight, durable

• Natural fibres have different characteristics• Absorbency, softness, warmth,

breathability

• Synthetics often able to match, through innovation– Fibre engineering

– Processing

•• Synthetic fibres meet needs of Synthetic fibres meet needs of todaytoday’’s consumers consumer•• Easy care, washability Easy care, washability

•• Lightweight, durableLightweight, durable

•• Natural fibres have different Natural fibres have different characteristicscharacteristics•• Absorbency, softness, warmth, Absorbency, softness, warmth,

breathabilitybreathability

•• Synthetics often able to match, Synthetics often able to match, through innovationthrough innovation–– Fibre engineeringFibre engineering

–– Processing Processing


Polyester’s Characteristics Yield a Wide Range of Applications

PolyesterPolyester’’s Characteristics Yield s Characteristics Yield

a Wide Range of Applicationsa Wide Range of Applications

Wickability, stain Wickability, stain

resistanceresistance

Washability, crease Washability, crease


Easy care, abrasion Easy care, abrasion


Light weight warmthLight weight warmth

LustreLustre


Nylon Mostly Used in Performance-Specific Markets

Nylon Mostly Used in Nylon Mostly Used in

PerformancePerformance--Specific MarketsSpecific Markets

Global Nylon Use, 2009


Highly Price Competitive Market Environment

Highly Price Competitive Market Highly Price Competitive Market

EnvironmentEnvironment• Increased downward

pressure on prices in garment supply chain– Growing importance of

discounters, supermarkets

– New global supply chains

• Shorter, more fashionable seasons– Synthetics bring novelty

– Less emphasis on garment durability: “Throwaway Society”

•• Increased downward Increased downward pressure on prices in pressure on prices in garment supply chaingarment supply chain–– Growing importance of Growing importance of

discounters, supermarketsdiscounters, supermarkets

–– New global supply chainsNew global supply chains

•• Shorter, more fashionable Shorter, more fashionable seasonsseasons–– Synthetics bring noveltySynthetics bring novelty

–– Less emphasis on garment Less emphasis on garment durability: durability: ““Throwaway Throwaway SocietySociety””


Fibre Prices Are Key Cost Driver Fibre Prices Are Key Cost Driver Fibre Prices Are Key Cost Driver

• Correlation between crude oil and synthetic fibre prices

• Cotton price highly variable with harvests

• Viscose price kept up by limited supply and expensive raw materials

• Eco fibres still being developed and expensive

•• Correlation between crude Correlation between crude oil and synthetic fibre oil and synthetic fibre pricesprices

•• Cotton price highly variable Cotton price highly variable with harvestswith harvests

•• Viscose price kept up by Viscose price kept up by limited supply and expensive limited supply and expensive raw materialsraw materials

•• Eco fibres still being Eco fibres still being developed and expensivedeveloped and expensive


Synthetic Feedstock Prices Below Recent Peaks

Synthetic Feedstock Prices Synthetic Feedstock Prices

Below Recent PeaksBelow Recent Peaks


Crude Oil: The Upward Trend ReturnsCrude Oil: The Upward Trend Returns


Cotton Is Less Competitive Cotton Is Less Competitive Cotton Is Less Competitive


Cellulosics Boast Eco-FriendlinessCellulosics Boast EcoCellulosics Boast Eco--FriendlinessFriendliness

• Replenishable raw material source– low water, pesticide consumption– up to 10 times the amount of

cellulose per hectare than cotton

• Easily and rapidly biodegraded (e.g. nonwovens)

• Lyocell: enhanced, eco-friendlier version of viscose– Recovered and recycled solvent

•• Replenishable raw material Replenishable raw material sourcesource–– low water, pesticide consumptionlow water, pesticide consumption

–– up to 10 times the amount of up to 10 times the amount of cellulose per hectare than cottoncellulose per hectare than cotton

•• Easily and rapidly biodegraded Easily and rapidly biodegraded (e.g. nonwovens)(e.g. nonwovens)

•• Lyocell: enhanced, ecoLyocell: enhanced, eco--friendlier version of viscosefriendlier version of viscose–– Recovered and recycled solventRecovered and recycled solvent


Recycling Presents “Ecological”Opportunity for Synthetics

Recycling Presents Recycling Presents ““EcologicalEcological””

Opportunity for SyntheticsOpportunity for Synthetics

• “RPET” well established in most key markets

– Major use in nonwovens

– “eco” appeal, lower cost (?)

• Flake in short supply, but recycling increasing

– Recycling directives

– New systems, changing economics

– Trade still essential

•• ““RPETRPET”” well established in well established in

most key marketsmost key markets

–– Major use in nonwovensMajor use in nonwovens

–– ““ecoeco”” appeal, lower cost (?)appeal, lower cost (?)

•• Flake in short supply, but Flake in short supply, but

recycling increasingrecycling increasing

–– Recycling directivesRecycling directives

–– New systems, changing New systems, changing

economicseconomics

–– Trade still essentialTrade still essential Ford Escape


RPET Usage In Staple Fibre Increasing Around the World

RPET Usage In Staple Fibre RPET Usage In Staple Fibre

Increasing Around the WorldIncreasing Around the World% PSF from RPET


More Limited Success With Nylon Recycling

More Limited Success With More Limited Success With

Nylon RecyclingNylon Recycling

• Mostly based on nylon 6 carpet recovery

– Back to caprolactam

– Limited success to date

• A few developments in clothing

– Toray recycling Patagonia nylon 6 garments

• Some other schemes

– Rhodia/Millet: nylon ropes to plastics

•• Mostly based on nylon 6 Mostly based on nylon 6

carpet recoverycarpet recovery

–– Back to caprolactamBack to caprolactam

–– Limited success to dateLimited success to date

•• A few developments in A few developments in

clothingclothing

–– Toray recycling Patagonia Toray recycling Patagonia

nylon 6 garmentsnylon 6 garments

•• Some other schemesSome other schemes

–– Rhodia/Millet: nylon ropes to Rhodia/Millet: nylon ropes to

plasticsplastics


Search Is On For Replenishable, Bio-Degradable Polymers

Search Is On For Replenishable, Search Is On For Replenishable,

BioBio--Degradable PolymersDegradable Polymers

• Some bio-degradable, oil based polymers• DuPont Apexa fibre

• BASF Ecoflex plastics, film

• Some polymers partly sustainably-sourced but not degradable

– Sorona PTT carpet fibres

•• Some bioSome bio--degradable, oil degradable, oil based polymersbased polymers•• DuPont Apexa fibreDuPont Apexa fibre

•• BASF Ecoflex plastics, filmBASF Ecoflex plastics, film

•• Some polymers partly Some polymers partly

sustainablysustainably--sourced but sourced but

not degradablenot degradable

–– Sorona PTT carpet fibresSorona PTT carpet fibres


Potential For PLA “Eco Fibre”Potential For PLA Potential For PLA ““Eco FibreEco Fibre””

•• NatureWorksNatureWorks’’ Ingeo Fibre, ResinIngeo Fibre, Resin

•• Renewable, natural resourceRenewable, natural resource

–– starch from corn, sugar starch from corn, sugar

•• Biodegradable above 65Biodegradable above 65°°°°°°°° and 90% humidityand 90% humidity

•• 30% growth per annum in food packaging30% growth per annum in food packaging

•• Fibre applications limited to nonwovensFibre applications limited to nonwovens

•• Big potential with Procter & GambleBig potential with Procter & Gamble







– Cost factors











The Old Synthetics Recover: Nylon FibresThe Old Synthetics Recover: Nylon FibresThe Old Synthetics Recover: Nylon Fibres


Polyester Fiber Grows Much FasterPolyester Fiber Grows Much FasterPolyester Fiber Grows Much Faster


Polyester Growth Swamps NylonPolyester Growth Swamps NylonPolyester Growth Swamps Nylon


Nothing Stopping The Polyester Juggernaut

Nothing Stopping The Polyester Nothing Stopping The Polyester

JuggernautJuggernaut• Versatility and low cost

ensures wide appeal– Despite oil trending upwards,

price will not be an issue

• Cotton under short term pressure

• Nylon will grow only in performance-based niches

• Recycling and bio-degradable polymers add to synthetics’eco-friendly credentials

•• Versatility and low cost Versatility and low cost ensures wide appealensures wide appeal–– Despite oil trending upwards, Despite oil trending upwards,

price will not be an issueprice will not be an issue

•• Cotton under short term Cotton under short term pressurepressure

•• Nylon will grow only in Nylon will grow only in performanceperformance--based nichesbased niches

•• Recycling and bioRecycling and bio--degradable degradable polymers add to syntheticspolymers add to synthetics’’ecoeco--friendly credentialsfriendly credentials


Questions?Questions?Questions?

prospects for man -made fibres prospects for man-made ... · prospects for man -made fibres barry...

Documents