protecting chicago: phase iv re-opening metrics update...2021/05/10 · latinx white, non-latinx...

Protecting Chicago:Phase IV Re-Opening Metrics Update

May 7th, 2021

(Data current through 5/5/2021)

2

Risk/Trajectoryas of 5/6/2021

Very high risk High risk Moderate risk Lower risk Controlled transmission

COVID cases diagnosed per dayChicago residents7-day rolling daily average

HIGHDECLINING

500

800+ -or-

7+ consecutive days more than 15% higher than daily average

one week prior

400 - 799-or-

5+ consecutive days more than 10% higher than daily

average one week prior

200 - 399-and-

decreasing or stable compared to daily average

one week prior

20 – 199-and-


one week prior

<20

COVID test positivity Chicago residents7-day rolling daily average

LOWERDECLINING

4.5%

10%+-or-


one week prior

6.6 - 9.9%-or-



5.0 - 6.5%-and-


one week prior

2 - 4.9%-and-


one week prior

<2%

Emergency dept visits for COVID-like illnessChicago hospitals7-day rolling daily average

VERY HIGHDECLINING

131

90+ -or-


one week prior

80-89-or-



60 - 79 -and-


one week prior

20 - 59 -and-


one week prior

<20

Non-ICU beds occupied by COVID patientsChicago hospitals7-day rolling daily average

MODERATESTABLE

370

1250+or-


one week prior

750 – 1249-or-



250 - 749 100 - 249 <100

ICU beds occupied by COVID patientsChicago hospitals7-day rolling daily average

MODERATESTABLE

141

400+-or-

<20% overall ICU bed availability

300 - 399 -or-

<22% overall ICU bed availability

100 - 299 20 - 99 <20

Chicago COVID-19 Community Metrics, Phase IV, current status

3

COVID-19 Outcomes by Race/Ethnicity

and Geography

Ca

se

s

Daily COVID-19 cases with known specimen report date and race/ethnicity information. Case is defined as positive result on PCR or antigen test. This case definition was applied to the entire epidemic beginning on 2/8/2021 therefore these results are different from results reported prior. Source: INEDSS.

Incident cases are highest for 18-29 year olds. Some age groups are now flattening. 0-17 year olds have a slight rise.

4

0

50

100

150

200

250

3/2

8

3/2

9

3/3

0

3/3

1

4/1

4/2

4/3

4/4

4/5

4/6

4/7

4/8

4/9

4/1

0

4/1

1

4/1

2

4/1

3

4/1

4

4/1

5

4/1

6

4/1

7

4/1

8

4/1

9

4/2

0

4/2

1

4/2

2

4/2

3

4/2

4

4/2

5

4/2

6

4/2

7

4/2

8

4/2

9

4/3

0

COVID-19 Cases, on Specimen Date, by Age Group, rolling 7-day average

0-17 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+

Ca

se

s

Daily COVID-19 cases with known specimen report date and race/ethnicity information. Case is defined as positive result on PCR or antigen test. This case definition was applied to the entire epidemic beginning on 2/8/2021 therefore these results are different from results reported prior. Source: INEDSS.

Incident cases are flattening for Black, non-Latinx and Latinx Chicagoans.

5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2003

/29

3/3

0

3/3

1

4/1

4/2

4/3

4/4

4/5

4/6

4/7

4/8

4/9

4/1

0

4/1

1

4/1

2

4/1

3

4/1

4

4/1

5

4/1

6

4/1

7

4/1

8

4/1

9

4/2

0

4/2

1

4/2

2

4/2

3

4/2

4

4/2

5

4/2

6

4/2

7

4/2

8

4/2

9

4/3

0

COVID-19 Cases, on Specimen Date, by Race/Ethnicity, rolling 7-day average

Asian,non-Latinx

Black,non-Latinx

Latinx White,non-Latinx

Weekly changes in COVID-19 cases by race/ethnicity and age group for week ending May 1st

(comparisons to week ending April 24th)

6

Percentages are computed using confirmed COVID-19 cases with known race/ethnicity.

Age Group (years)

Latinx% of

Age grp

Change from last

week Black, NL

% of Age grp

Change from last

week

White, NL% of

Age grp

Change from last

week

Asian, NL

% of Age grp

Change from last

week

Total (percent)

Change from last week

0-17 143 31% -29 203 44% 53 80 17% -1 9 2% -7645

(18%)15

18-44 419 28% -14 665 44% 65 268 18% -85 68 5% -371,850(52%)

-158

45-64 183 27% 11 318 47% 11 123 18% -7 25 4% -2814

(23%)0

65+ 40 22% 8 89 48% -19 40 22% -6 5 3% -4227(6%)

-11

Total 785 28% -24 1275 45% 110 511 18% -99 107 4% -50 3,536 -154

Data pulled Wednesday 5/5/21

7

Week ending 5/1/21 (n=3,536)

Changes in weekly case counts by zip codeWeek ending 4/24/21 (n=3,690)

Note: Week is data through the Wednesday after the end date for the week. Week 17 ending May 1st and week 16 ending April 24th

8

Changes in weekly case counts by zip code week ending May 1st compared to week ending Apr 24th

Note: Week is data through the Wednesday after the end date for the week. Week 17 ending May 1st and week 16 ending April 24th

9

Test positivity by Race-Ethnicity (April 4 – May 1, 2021)

10.0%

7.9%7.9%

5.0%

3.0%

4.1%

2.7%3.6%

2.4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Week Ending April 10 Week Ending April 17 Week Ending April 24 Week Ending May 1

Test

Po

siti

vity

Latinx Black, Non-Latinx White, Non-Latinx Asian, Non-Latinx Unknown

10

Test positivity by Age through (April 4 – May 1, 2021)

8.2%8.0%

5.7%

6.7%

5.1%

6.8%

4.8%4.9%

4.3%4.0%

3.1%3.0%2.7% 2.3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Week Ending April 10 Week Ending April 17 Week Ending April 24 Week Ending May 1

Test

po

siti

vity

0-17 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+

11

Hospital admissions

Cumulative epidemic hospitalization with table.

Hospitalizations are reported to CDPH by hospitals into I-NEDSS and ESSENCE and self-reported by patients via an online survey. Daily counts for most recent dates displayed are likely incomplete. Cases who are not indicated to have been hospitalized across any of the three data sources are assumed to not have been hospitalized. Six records with hospital admit dates from January and February 2020 are excluded from this chart. Peak daily admissions based on rolling 7-day average.

12

Ho

sp

ita

l Ad

mis

sio

ns

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1803

/1

3/1

5

3/2

9

4/1

2

4/2

6

5/1

0

5/2

4

6/7

6/2

1

7/5

7/1

9

8/2

8/1

6

8/3

0

9/1

3

9/2

7

10

/11

10

/25

11

/8

11

/22

12

/6

12

/20

1/3

1/1

7

1/3

1

2/1

4

2/2

8

3/1

4

3/2

8

4/1

1

4/2

5

COVID-19 Hospital admissions, rolling 7-day average

Month Year

Hospital Admits

frequencyCumulative frequency

March 2020 1,652 1,652

April 2020 4,859 6,511

May 2020 3,250 9,761

June 2020 966 10,727

July 2020 764 11,491

August 2020 785 12,276

September 2020 752 13,028

October 2020 1,745 14,773

November 2020 3,731 18,504

December 2020 3,007 21,511

January 2021 2,060 23,571

February 2021 973 24,544

March 2021 984 25,528

April 2021 1,582 27,110

Hospital admissions are declining in all older age groups while <50 year olds keeps rising.


13

Ho

sp

ita

l Ad

mis

sio

ns

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

401

0/1

2

10

/19

10

/26

11

/2

11

/9

11

/16

11

/23

11

/30

12

/7

12

/14

12

/21

12

/28

1/4

1/1

1

1/1

8

1/2

5

2/1

2/8

2/1

5

2/2

2

3/1

3/8

3/1

5

3/2

2

3/2

9

4/5

4/1

2

4/1

9

4/2

6

COVID-19 hospital admits, on Specimen Date, by Age Group with finer distinctions amongst oldest strata, rolling 7-day average

<50 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+

Hospital admissions are highest and rising in 30-39 year oldsand 40-49 year olds.


14

Ho

sp

ita

l Ad

mis

sio

ns

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

401

0/1

2

10

/19

10

/26

11

/2

11

/9

11

/16

11

/23

11

/30

12

/7

12

/14

12

/21

12

/28

1/4

1/1

1

1/1

8

1/2

5

2/1

2/8

2/1

5

2/2

2

3/1

3/8

3/1

5

3/2

2

3/2

9

4/5

4/1

2

4/1

9

4/2

6

COVID-19 Cases, on Specimen Date, by Younger Age Group, rolling 7-day average

0-19 20-29 30-39 40-49

Daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are highest and rose fastest in Black, non-Latinx.


15

Ho

sp

ita

l Ad

mis

sio

ns

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

353

/29

3/3

0

3/3

1

4/1

4/2

4/3

4/4

4/5

4/6

4/7

4/8

4/9

4/1

0

4/1

1

4/1

2

4/1

3

4/1

4

4/1

5

4/1

6

4/1

7

4/1

8

4/1

9

4/2

0

4/2

1

4/2

2

4/2

3

4/2

4

4/2

5

4/2

6

4/2

7

4/2

8

4/2

9

COVID-19 Hospital Admissions, by Race/Ethnicity,rolling 7-day average, first known hospital admit date

Asian,non-Latinx

Black,non-Latinx


Recent COVID-19 hospitalizations by race/ethnicity and age group (Apr 4– May 1, 2021)

Percentages are computed using COVID-19 hospitalizations with known race/ethnicity.

Age Group (years)

Latinx% of

Age grpBlack,

NL% of

Age grpWhite, NL

% of Age grp

Asian, NL

% of Age grp

Total Percent

0-17 8 21% 21 55% 6 16% 3 8% 41 3%

18-44 82 21% 241 61% 49 12% 6 2% 417 28%

45-64 108 20% 327 61% 66 12% 12 2% 567 38%

65+ 58 13% 255 59% 84 19% 11 3% 454 31%

Total 256 18% 844 60% 205 15% 32 2% 1,479 100%


17

Recent COVID-19 hospitalizations by Chicago zip code (Apr 4–May 1, 2021) n=1,479

Please note that COVID-19 hospitalizations have significant reporting delays

18

Deaths

Daily COVID-19 deaths have no clear pattern by race/ethnicity.

19

De

ath

s

Daily COVID-19 deaths reported for Chicago residents with known death date. Data source: INEDSS. A five day lag is imposed to reduce inaccuracy created by reporting delays.

0

1

2

33

/29

3/3

0

3/3

1

4/1

4/2

4/3

4/4

4/5

4/6

4/7

4/8

4/9

4/1

0

4/1

1

4/1

2

4/1

3

4/1

4

4/1

5

4/1

6

4/1

7

4/1

8

4/1

9

4/2

0

4/2

1

4/2

2

4/2

3

4/2

4

4/2

5

4/2

6

4/2

7

4/2

8

4/2

9

4/3

0

COVID-19 Deaths, by Race/Ethnicity, rolling 7-day average

Asian,non-Latinx

Black,non-Latinx


2021 COVID-19 deaths by race/ethnicity and age group through May 5th

Percentages are computed using COVID-19 hospitalizations with known race/ethnicity.

Age Group (years)

Latinx% of

Age grpBlack,

NL% of

Age grpWhite, NL

% of Age grp

Asian, NL

% of Age grp

Total Percent

0-17 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%

18-44 8 24% 19 58% 3 9% 2 6% 33 5%

45-64 65 41% 65 41% 21 13% 6 4% 158 25%

65+ 107 25% 151 35% 136 32% 30 7% 433 69%

Total 180 29% 235 38% 160 26% 38 6% 624 100%


21

COVID-19 deaths in 2021 through May 5th by Chicago zip code (n=624)

Please note that COVID-19 hospitalizations have significant reporting delays

22

Reopening Metrics

23

COVID-19 Cases

COVID-19 case incidence risk levelis high.

Daily COVID-19 cases with known specimen report date. Case is defined as positive result on PCR or antigen test. This case definition was applied to the entire epidemic beginning on 2/8/2021 therefore these results are different from results reported prior. Source: INEDSS.

24

Ca

se

s

↑HIGH RISK

↑ MODERATE

↑ LOWER

DateIncident

case count, 7DRA

Consecutive days with

10%+ change


15%+ changeRisk level

# of days 10%+ in

last week

4/30/2021 513 0 0 HIGH 0

↑ VERY HIGH

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

4/5

4/6

4/7

4/8

4/9

4/1

0

4/1

1

4/1

2

4/1

3

4/1

4

4/1

5

4/1

6

4/1

7

4/1

8

4/1

9

4/2

0

4/2

1

4/2

2

4/2

3

4/2

4

4/2

5

4/2

6

4/2

7

4/2

8

4/2

9

4/3

0

5/1

5/2

5/3

5/4

5/5

COVID-19 cases, daily counts and rolling 7-day average, specimen date

COVID-19 case incidence risk level varies over time.

Daily COVID-19 cases with known specimen report date. Case is defined as positive result on PCR or antigen test. This case definition was applied to the entire epidemic beginning on 2/8/2021 therefore these results are different from results reported prior. Source: INEDSS.

25

Ca

se

s

↑ VERY HIGH

↑HIGH RISK

↑ MODERATE

↑ LOWER0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,5003

/13

3/2

7

4/1

0

4/2

4

5/8

5/2

2

6/5

6/1

9

7/3

7/1

7

7/3

1

8/1

4

8/2

8

9/1

1

9/2

5

10

/9

10

/23

11

/6

11

/20

12

/4

12

/18

1/1

1/1

5

1/2

9

2/1

2

2/2

6

3/1

2

3/2

6

4/9

4/2

3

COVID-19 cases, daily counts and rolling 7-day average, specimen date

26

Emergency Department Visits

Count of all emergency department visits, and inpatient reported with COVID-like symptoms among Chicago residents. Data Source: Illinois Hospital Emergency Departments reporting to CDPH through the National Syndromic Surveillance Project.

27

ED visits for COVID-like illness risk level is very high.

CO

VID

-lik

e E

D v

isit

s

↑

HIGH RISK

↑MODERATE RISK

↑

LOWER RISK

DateCLI ED visit count, 7DRA


10%+ change



# of days 10%+ in

last week

5/22021 125 0 0 VERY HIGH 0

↑ VERY HIGH

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Count of all emergency department visits, and inpatient reported with COVID-like symptoms among Chicago residents. Data Source: Illinois Hospital Emergency Departments reporting to CDPH through the National Syndromic Surveillance Project.

28

ED visits for COVID-like illness reached the highest peak in early May 2020 and is currently decreasing.

CO

VID

-lik

e E

D v

isit

s

↑ VERY HIGH

↑ HIGH RISK

↑MODERATE RISK

↑

LOWER RISK

318

56

281

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

3/7 3/21 4/4 4/18 5/2 5/16 5/30 6/13 6/27 7/11 7/25 8/8 8/22 9/5 9/19 10/3 10/17 10/31 11/14 11/28 12/12 12/26 1/9 1/23 2/6 2/20 3/6 3/20 4/3 4/17 5/1

29

Test Positivity

Test positivity risk level is lower.

Test positivity is the number of positive tests divided by all tests performed. For the purposes of public reporting, the definition of ‘tests’ was expanded on 2/8/2021 to include antigen tests in addition to PCR tests. (Previous reports only described PCR tests). The new definition is applied to testing performed at any point during the epidemic. Source: INEDSS. 30

Te

st

po

sit

ive

↑ MODERATE

RISK

↑ LOWER

DateTest

Positivity, 7DRA


10%+ change



# of days 10%+ in

last week

4/30/2021 4.6% 0 0 LOWER 0

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%3

/30

4/1

4/3

4/5

4/7

4/9

4/1

1

4/1

3

4/1

5

4/1

7

4/1

9

4/2

1

4/2

3

4/2

5

4/2

7

4/2

9

COVID-19 tests, 7-day rolling average for test positive (%)

Test positivity varies over time.

Test positivity is the number of positive tests divided by all tests performed. For the purposes of public reporting, the definition of ‘tests’ was expanded on 2/8/2021 to include antigen tests in addition to PCR tests. (Previous reports only described PCR tests). The new definition is applied to testing performed at any point during the epidemic. Source: INEDSS. 31

Te

st

po

sit

ive

↑ VERY HIGH

↑HIGH RISK

↑ MODERATE

↑ LOWER

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%3

/73

/14

3/2

13

/28

4/4

4/1

14

/18

4/2

55

/25

/95

/16

5/2

35

/30

6/6

6/1

36

/20

6/2

77

/47

/11

7/1

87

/25

8/1

8/8

8/1

58

/22

8/2

99

/59

/12

9/1

99

/26

10

/31

0/1

01

0/1

71

0/2

41

0/3

11

1/7

11

/14

11

/21

11

/28

12

/51

2/1

21

2/1

91

2/2

61

/21

/91

/16

1/2

31

/30

2/6

2/1

32

/20

2/2

73

/63

/13

3/2

03

/27

4/3

4/1

04

/17

4/2

4

COVID-19 tests, 7-day rolling average for test positive (%)

Test positivity is flat while testing counts dip slightly.

32

CO

VID

-19

Te

sts

Te

st

po

sit

ive

Test positivity is the number of positive tests divided by all tests performed (Source: INEDSS).

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,0003

/28

3/2

9

3/3

0

3/3

1

4/1

4/2

4/3

4/4

4/5

4/6

4/7

4/8

4/9

4/1

0

4/1

1

4/1

2

4/1

3

4/1

4

4/1

5

4/1

6

4/1

7

4/1

8

4/1

9

4/2

0

4/2

1

4/2

2

4/2

3

4/2

4

4/2

5

4/2

6

4/2

7

4/2

8

4/2

9

4/3

0

COVID-19 tests, 7-day rolling average for test positive (%) and for counts (one test per individual per day)

Goal is under 5%

Test positivity and testing count have varied greatly over the entire duration of the epidemic.

Test positivity is the number of positive tests divided by all tests performed (Source: INEDSS).

33

CO

VID

-19

Te

sts

Te

st

po

sit

ive

13,267

4.6%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

21%

24%

27%

30%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

COVID-19 tests, 7-day rolling average for test positive (%) and for counts (one test per individual per day)

Goal is under 5%

34

Hospital System Capacity

Includes all Chicago hospitals. Hospitals report daily to CDPH via EMResource, beginning March 19. ICU bed count includes all adult and pediatric ICU beds in Chicago hospitals. Includes Chicago and non-Chicago residents. Includes confirmed and suspected COVID-19 cases.

35

ICU

be

ds

oc

cu

pie

d b

y C

OV

ID-1

9 p

ati

en

ts

COVID-19 occupied ICU beds risk level is moderate.

DateICU Beds

Occupied by COVID-19, 7DRA

ICU Bed Availability,

7DRARisk level

5/2/2021 139 21% MODERATE

↑

LOWER RISK

↑MODERATE RISK

139

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients, daily counts and 7 day average, daily occupancy census

Occupied by COVID (daily) Occupied by COVID (7DRA)

Includes all Chicago hospitals. Hospitals report daily to CDPH via EMResource, beginning March 19. ICU bed count includes all adult and pediatric ICU beds in Chicago hospitals. Includes Chicago and non-Chicago residents. Includes confirmed and suspected COVID-19 cases.

36

ICU

be

ds

oc

cu

pie

d b

y C

OV

ID-1

9 p

ati

en

ts

ICU availability and occupancy from COVID-19 varies.

% A

vaila

bili

ty

DateICU Beds

Occupied by COVID-19, 7DRA

ICU Bed Availability,

7DRARisk level

5/2/2021 139 21% MODERATE

77

139

21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

100

200

300

400

500

3/19 4/8 4/28 5/18 6/7 6/27 7/17 8/6 8/26 9/15 10/5 10/25 11/14 12/4 12/24 1/13 2/2 2/22 3/14 4/3 4/23

ICU beds available and occupied by COVID-19 patients, daily counts and 7 day average, daily occupancy census

Occupied by COVID (daily) Occupied by COVID (7DRA) % Available (7DRA)

Includes all Chicago hospitals. Hospitals report daily to CDPH via EMResource, beginning March 19.. Includes Chicago and non-Chicago residents. Includes confirmed and suspected COVID-19 cases.

37

Ac

ute

, no

n-I

CU

be

ds

oc

cu

pie

d b

y C

OV

ID-1

9 p

ati

en

ts

Acute, non-ICU bed census of COVID patients is flat.

375

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

4/2 4/4 4/6 4/8 4/10 4/12 4/14 4/16 4/18 4/20 4/22 4/24 4/26 4/28 4/30 5/2

COVID-19 acute/non-ICU beds occupied, daily counts and 7 day average, daily occupancy census

Includes all Chicago hospitals. Hospitals report daily to CDPH via EMResource, beginning March 19.. Includes Chicago and non-Chicago residents. Includes confirmed and suspected COVID-19 cases.

38

Ac

ute

, no

n-I

CU

be

ds

oc

cu

pie

d b

y C

OV

ID-1

9 p

ati

en

ts

Acute, non-ICU bed census of COVID patients varies over time.

249

1092

375

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

4/2 5/2 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 10/2 11/2 12/2 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 5/2

COVID-19 acute/non-ICU beds occupied, daily counts and 7 day average, daily occupancy census

protecting chicago: phase iv re-opening metrics update...2021/05/10 · latinx white, non-latinx...

Documents