prototyping the emergency smoke response system (esrs) sim larkin, tara strand, robert solomon (us...
TRANSCRIPT
Prototyping theEmergency Smoke Response System
(ESRS)
Sim Larkin, Tara Strand, Robert Solomon (US Forest Service AirFire Team)
Sean Raffuse, Dana Raffuse, Lyle Chinkin (Sonoma Technology)
Tim Brown (Desert Research Institute)
Pete Lahm (USFS), Trent Procter (USFS Region 5)
Westar Fall Meeting 2008October 3, 2008
Outline
The Idea behind ESRS• Provide smoke information for decision support
Why develop the ESRS?• Extraordinary California fires
What was done for the ESRS Prototype?• Southern California 2007• Northern California 2008
Smoke is a growing issue
More fireIncreasing wildfires, WFU and Rx fires
Decreased public acceptance of smokeMore health awareness, encroachment (WUI)
Tightening regulationsNAAQS standards (PM2.5 & O3), regional haze rule, exceptional events standards
There is more we can do - nowSmoke Tools are inherently technology dependentEven more so than weather forecasts
Too technological to be done on desktops/laptops
But technology has advanced massivelyNow we have the world-wide web
FIRE INFOWEATHER
PREDICTIONS
SMOKE TRAJECTORIES andCONCENTRATIONS
Smoke Tool Applications
Real-Time• Managing an Airshed
– what will happen
• Lighting a burn – what will happen
• Managing a burn – what is happening
Future• Planning a burn
– what if scenarios
Historical• Diagnosing an event
– what happened
National Smoke ProductsNational Weather Service
• smoke only (12-km) & aq (36-km)
STI CMAQ• national emissions inventory + fire• national 36-km
FCAMMS• smoke only• regional hi-res (4-km)• national 12-km 3-day (based on NWS NAM)• national 36-km 7-day (based on NWS GFS)
All based on the modular BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework
developed by the USFS & partners
All based on the modular BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework
developed by the USFS & partners
The BlueSky Framework: Logical, Modular Steps from Fire Info to Smoke Impacts
FireInfo
Fuels
Total Consumption
TimeRate
Emissions
PlumeRise
Dispersion /Trajectories
SMARTFIREICS-209Rx SysManualOther FCCS
NFDRSHardyLANDFIREAg*Other
CONSUME 3FOFEMFEPSEPMClearSky (Ag)*Satellite*Other
Rx / WFFEPSFOFEMEPMWRAPIdealizedManualOther
FEPSLiterature*EPMFOFEMOther Briggs
Multi-core**Daysmoke**Other
CalPuffHYSPLITCMAQGEMAQ**
Meteorological Input
MM5WRFNAMNARROther
Southern California Fires 2007
• asked by USDA for data
• supplemented other sources (e.g. NWS)
• SMARTFIRE (HMS&ICS) fire info
• CMAQ and CALPUFF model outputs
• Used: internally by USFS fire resource managers;in Smog Stories and press releases by USDA & AirNow;on White House conf call
Northern California Fires 2008
State of Emergency / Presidential Declaration
Enormous Smoke Impacts (> 5 million people affected)
USFS AirFire Team & Partners (STI, DRI) asked to develop prototype ESRS by Region 5
Federal / Private / University partnership
Rapid Response basis
1. Improve Smoke Modeling Systems both background models and operational status
1. Provide New Tools • Higher resolution• On-the-fly trajectories• Other species (e.g. Ozone)• Smoke apportionment by source fire
1. Provide Forecastsexpert interpreted forecast text and graphics
GOALS:
Very High Resolution
High resolution (1.33 km) meteorology and smoke dispersion
For both fire behavior and air quality
Winds, temperature, RH, mixing height, and smoke PM2.5
Java animations available online
On Demand Trajectories
Daily 36-km air quality model
Includes fires, other sources, and photochemistry
Ozone (experimental only)
14
Smoke ExposureContributionMap
Smoke Exposure Contribution Map
Combines modeled emissions and transport to determine which fires are likely to contribute to unhealthy air
Provides information for including smoke impacts in management response decision making
16
Northern California Fires 2008
Daily Forecast Graphics
3 day, 2 night outlook
Prepared by air quality meteorologist
Forecast text summary
http://cefa.dri.edu/california
AQUIPT: Longer-range planning
Example: planning fire next SpringCan’t say what impacts will beBut can use history as a guide
air quality impacts planning tool
PastWeather
DispersionModeling
ProbabilisticFuture
Impacts+ =
Web Interface
Emissions Modeling +
Thank youFunding from National Fire Plan, USDA CSREES NRI, USFS, Joint Fire Science Program, EPA, DOI, and NASA ROSES DSS.
http://getBlueSky.org
Tara [email protected]