providing opportunities for all - uw tacoma · 2018-03-09 · - mary snapp (corporate vp and lead...
TRANSCRIPT
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Providing Opportunities for AllThomas Colton Rachel Durtschi Jordan Marsh Harrison Miner
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1
Background Empowered
Diversity
Adaptive
Workforce
Impact
2 3 4
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Background
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Microsoft’s Position
Career Pathways Non-profit Support Rural Broadband Digital Transformation
TechSpark
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
Digital Skills Development
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AI revenue
will grow
14x by
2025
See: https://www.statista.com/statistics/607716/worldwide-artificial-intelligence-market-revenues/
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Job Loss Mismanagement Killer Robots Security Superintelligence Other
Risks
Top Concerns Identified by AI Researchers
51 Million Jobs
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
See https://www.techemergence.com/artificial-intelligence-risk/
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Our Obligation
“As a company at the forefront of the digital transformation, we have an
obligation to bring people and organizations together to ensure that the
benefits of the technology revolution are available to all.”
- Mary Snapp (Corporate VP and Lead for Microsoft Philanthropies)
See: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/empowering-every-person-future-ready-mary-snapp/
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Our Opportunity
Hope
Increase positive uses of AI
Fear
Decrease negative
perception of AI
Perception
of AI and
Microsoft-
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
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Criteria
1
23
Social Impact
Capabilities
Returns for
Microsoft
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/leadership/making-the-most-of-corporate-social-responsibility
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Microsoft’s Position
Career Pathways Non-profit Support Rural Broadband Digital Transformation
TechSpark
Digital Skills Development
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
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Opportunities for All
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
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Our Solution
We will create an adaptive education system using AI
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Research
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
90% 20% 13% 99%
More time on
active learning
experiences
Increased
retention
Increase in pass
rate
Confidence level
that adaptive
coding platform
> traditional
See Appendix 1
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The Future
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
High Technology
Education
Healthcare
Future Potential
Curr
ent
Ad
op
tio
n
AI Industry Penetration and Future Potential
https://www.nanalyze.com/2017/08/artificial-intelligence-in-education/
Others
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Affected Groups
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
AI Driven Adaptive Learning
Current WorkforceAt Risk Students
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Affected Groups
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
AI Driven Adaptive Learning
Current WorkforceAt Risk Students
Marginalized
by AI
Rapidly
Changing
Job Market
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Our Solution
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
AI Driven Adaptive Learning
Current WorkforceAt Risk Students
Intelligent
EducationFast Adaptive
Training
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Empowered Diversity
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The under-educated will be left behind in the AI revolution
44%
19%
Less than
High School
High School
Degree
9%
Trade
School
Associate’s
Degree
6%
Bachelor's
Degree
1%
Share of Jobs with Highly Automatable Skills
*Executive office of the President, 2016, ”Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy”
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Wealth Disparity
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2005 2009 2010 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Forecasted Income Disparity by Annual Income (Highest and Lowest Quintile)
Lowest quintile Highest quintile
Increased
disparity,
partially
due to AI
See Appendix slide 7 for calculations
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Who’s at risk?
54%
33%
23%16%
Asian White Black Hispanic
Percentage of People Who Earn
a Bachelor's Degree by Race
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
Parent Income Percentile
Percentage of People who Attend
College by Parents Income
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
*Chetty et al., 2014, “Where is the Land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States”
*US Census https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2016/demo/p20-578.pdf
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AI is the solution to providing low income minority groups with the opportunities they
need to succeed in the digital revolution
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Idiris’s Story
84% of teachers say that differentiated instruction is difficult to implement on a daily basis in their classrooms
https://www.christenseninstitute.org/publications/teaching-machine-age/
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Adaptive Teaching
IndividualizedHelp
Teacher Insight
Benefits of AI
Scalable Growth
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
See Appendix 2
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Existing Relationships
Reach to over 12,000 students across 344 schools
Proven CS curriculum with focus on under-represented minorities
Extensive digital curriculum platform
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
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Future Relationships
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
Adaptive Learning
Partnership and ExpertiseCoding and Technology
Expertise
&
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603504/playtimes-over/
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Powered by
Enroll
Learn more
See our new classes
Dashboard
Your Profile Notes from your TeachersIndividual HelpYour Progress
Mathematics Sciences Coding English
65% Overall
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Risks and Possible Solutions
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
Lack of access to
broadband & technology
We won’t be able to
address at-risk youth
TechSpark will close the
broadband gap in 5 years
We will focus initial efforts
on low-income areas
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Criteria Met
1
23
Social Impact815,000 more HS grads
204,000 jobs saved
CapabilitiesTechSpark
Teals
Code.org
Lynda
Returns for
Microsoft$7.6 million revenue
Proactive accountability
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
See Appendix 3 and 6 for Calculations
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Adaptive Workforce
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Current Workforce
Technological Revolutions
4th
Industrial
Revolution
With every new
industrial revolution we
have switches in
employment leaders by
sector
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackgroundSource: IPUMS USA 2017; US Bureau of Labor Statistics; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
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Impact of Preparation
35Million jobs lost by 2050
from entering the AI
revolution without
proper educational
preparation
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
# o
f jo
bs
in t
he U
.S.A
.
Year
Total Number of U.S. Jobs
Historical Job Total
Projected Growth with Preperation
Projected Growth without
Preperation
10 million job gap
See Appendix 4 for calculations
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Microsoft’s Unique Position
Access to the big data of job market
AI know-how
Training Resources
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
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Microsoft’s Unique Position
Access to the big data of job market
AI know-how
Training Resources
Microsoft has a
responsibility to
stakeholders
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
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Why AI is Necessary?
Bottlenecks: Individualized training
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
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AI Platform
Application Services
Resume Builders
Online Training
Seminars
Networking Advice
Recruiting Coaches
Coding skills sites
A myriad of resources…
Non-verified content
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
curated for the individual
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Predictive Training
Identify needed skills Matches new training
with job skills
Matches people with
new jobs based on skills
Recommend free training
programs
AI driven adaptive
learning environments
Adaptive Workforce Empowered Diversity ImpactBackground
Identify employment
trends
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UX
This will show what our AI platform will look like
Adaptive Workforce Empowered Diversity ImpactBackground
We have discovered shifts in required skills among your profession and recommend free training courses to stay competitive
View courses
Skill Development Forum
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Powered by
Current Job >
New Path >
Suggested Paths
Search for skills to for current role
Search for skills for a new role
Ai Selected Skills
SQL C++HadoopBusiness Accounting
SQL is used for storing, manipulating and retrieving data in databases.
Accounting is the way a business keeps
track of its operations.
Hadoop is an open-source software used
for storage and processing of big data.
C++ is a programming language with
object-oriented and generic programming
features
My Classes About Us Support MoreCertifications Jobs Partners
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Risks and Possible Solutions
Skepticism about product and
invitation
Maintain transparency about motives
to overcome doubts
Trainings aren’t sufficient in providing
requisite skills
Lynda is a proven training resource and
will improve as our technology improves
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackground
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Criteria Met
1
23
Social ImpactDecreases unemployment rate
Saves society $9.5 billion through
a lower number of suicides
CapabilitiesLeverages current TechSpark
programs
Strengthens partnership with
the Markle Foundation
Returns for
MicrosoftEstimated ROI of 55%
Becomes face of hope in
adapting labor force
Adaptive WorkforceEmpowered Diversity ImpactBackgroundSee Appendix 5 and 6 for calculations
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Impact
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Combine Resources:
LinkedIn, Markle,
Lynda
Timeline
6 Months 2 Years
R&D: Adaptive
Learning
Launch
Adaptive
Workforce
Launch Empowered
Diversity InitiativeLeverage Partners
to Develop
Curriculum
1 Year
ImpactAdaptive WorkforceEmpowered DiversityBackground
Work with Non-profits
to find partner schools
Scale Out Solutions
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Costs
=$1,810,000
+ Platform Creation ($10K)
+ Bandwidth & Servers ($240K)
+ Additional Website Costs ($60K)
+ 10 Person Team ($1500K)
ImpactAdaptive WorkforceEmpowered DiversityBackground
See Appendix 6 for Calculations
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Impact
ImpactAdaptive WorkforceEmpowered DiversityBackground
$8.6Millionannual profit by 2020
from implementing the
adaptive learning
platform
$9.5Billionin annual savings to society
from costs associated with
prevented suicides by 2050
81,500 More Studentswho are at-risk graduating
high school annually
35Millionmore jobs available to
trained individuals due to
improved training
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Questions?
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Appendix
Rachel Durtschi Harrison Miner Jordan Marsh Thomas Colton
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Appendix 1
Data in support of Adaptive Learning Technology:
1. Adaptive Educational Hypermedia Systems in Technology Enhanced Learning: A Literature Review Catherine Mulwa,
Seamus Lawless, Mary Sharp, Inmaculada Arnedillo-Sanchez, Vincent Wade: dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=1867672
“Data show that adaptivity overall provides improvements in learner satisfaction and knowledge gain”
2. Use case: Progressive Business Partners uses an adaptive platform that increased course completion by 12% and 30%
increase in revenue: http://searchhrsoftware.techtarget.com/feature/Zoomi-online-learning-software-predicts-the-best-ways-
students-learn
3. Research on adaptive techniques based on “Bloom” method is overwhelmingly positive
http://www.ascd.org/publications/educational-leadership/oct10/vol68/num02/Lessons-of-Mastery-Learning.aspx
4. Statistics on increased student retention and others from slide https://www.mheducation.com/news-media/press-
releases/study-shows-significant-improvement-student-outcomes-adaptive-technology.html
5. Data on adaptive training specific to coding SQL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360131515000937
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Appendix 2
Unique Offerings that AI can provide in education:
- Create content that changes according to learning style (71 different types)
- Content adjusts to knowledge levels and speed of learning
- Better analyzes student outcomes and needs early on (Bloom method)
- Creates better collaboration in classrooms as AI can partner groups
- Obtains better scale as teachers are able to outsource to AI
- Promotes strategic thinking and problem solving
Sources: http://www.gettingsmart.com/2017/07/how-adaptive-learning-is-changing-traditional-teaching-methods/
https://www.pcmag.com/article/357483/how-artificial-intelligence-is-shaping-the-future-of-educati
http://www.ascd.org/publications/educational-leadership/oct10/vol68/num02/Lessons-of-Mastery-Learning.aspx
https://www.techemergence.com/examples-of-artificial-intelligence-in-education/
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Appendix 3
• https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_coi.asp• Executive office of the President, 2016, ”Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy”
Social Impact of Education with AI
AI Help 13.0%
Current HS Grad No HS Total Automation Rates HS Grad No HS No HS
83.0% 17.0% 19.0% 44.0% 44.0%
Automated Jobs 7.5% 7.5%
With AI HS Grad No HS
93.8% 6.2%
New HS Grads 10.8%
Automated Jobs 2.050100% 2.7% 4.8% HS Students 15,100,000
Seniors 3,775,000
Minorities 20%
Graduates 814,645
Decrease 2.7% Jobs saved 203,661
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Appendix 4
Citations:
Historical data for # jobs- https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
Data for historical and predicted population-
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/cspan/1940census/CSPAN_1940slides.pdf
Source for 10 million job loss by 2020- http://www.industrytap.com/future-
shock-10-million-jobs-lost-ai-robots-2020/40374
YearJob Total (continued
growth in 1000s)
Job Total (AI impacted
growth in 1000s)
Population (in
millions)
2018 148420 145000
2019 150239 143500
2020 152080 142080 341.4
2021 153944 140339
2022 155830 139204
2023 157740 138641
2024 159673 138080
2025 161630 138080
2026 163611 138080
2027 165616 138926
2028 167646 140629
2029 169700 142352
2030 171780 144097 373.5
2031 173885 145863
2032 176016 147650
2033 178173 149460
2034 180357 151291
2035 182567 153145
2036 184805 155022
2037 187069 156922
2038 189362 158845
2039 191683 160792
2040 194032 162762 403.7
2041 196410 164757
2042 198817 166776
2043 201253 168820
2044 203720 170889
2045 206216 172983
2046 208743 175103
2047 211302 177249
2048 213891 179421
2049 216513 181620
2050 219166 183846 439
Employment Projections
Past 30 year growth rate: 1.20%
2050 # jobs (continued growth): 219,165,914
2050 # jobs (AI impacted): 183,846,148
Total # Jobs Lost Due to AI: 35,319,766
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Appendix 5
Citations:
For suicide and unemployment- http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanpsy/PIIS2215-0366(14)00118-7.pdf
For cost of suicides- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_the_United_States
Assumptions from Suicide Research
Change in unemployment rate: Resulting suicide rate:
From 4% --> 7%: 0.0123%
From 7% --> 10% 0.0128%
From 10% --> 13% 0.0133%
From 13% --> 16% 0.0135%
From 16% --> 19% 0.0137%
Predicted Impact from Suicides
Predicted unemployment: 19.50%
Consequent suicide rate: 0.0137%
Difference in suicide rates: 0.0019%
Predicted population: 439,000,000
Increase in number of suicides: 8341
Cost to society per suicide: $ 1,154,028.92
Total Cost to Society: $ 9,508,240,032.22
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Appendix 6
Citations:
YouTube baseline costs-
http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2009/04/do_you_think_bandwidth_grows_on_trees.html
MVP cost for an app/website- https://www.spaceotechnologies.com/never-ask-how-much-will-an-app-development-cost-
me/
Glassdoor.com
https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=84
Potential costs of solution 1
Platform creation for MVP
(minimal variable product) $ 10,000.00
Bandwidth and servers $ 240,000.00
Remaining (R&D,
maintenance, etc.) $ 60,000.00
Software engineer team (5
@$150K) $ 1,500,000.00
Total Annual Costs $ 1,810,000.00
Revenue from Universities
½ Professor Salary 50,000
Number of Universities 3039
Use Rate 0.05
Total $ 7,597,500
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Appendix 7
ImpactAdaptive WorkforceEmpowered DiversityBackground
United States Census Bureau: Wealth and Asset Ownership (1998 – 2013)
https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/wealth/data/tables.2000.html
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Appendix: STEM Field Workforce
74.2% Male
25.8% Female
70.8% White
14.5% Asian
6.5% Hispanic
6.4% Black1.8% Other
Adaptive Workforce Empowered Diversity ImpactBackground
*Landivar, 2014, ”Disparities in STEM Employment by Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin”
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Appendix: Current Adaptive Learning
Company Specialty
Carnegie LearningFairly advanced math software for 6-12 Grade
education
Mastery LearningBloom- Focused platform that provides targeted
feedback primarily
Content Technologies AI that develops customized educational content
Dream Box Math software for K-8 programs (game focused)
Third Space LearningAI grouped with Tutors to provide 1:1 teaching to
students
USCGamified technology to measure performance
and adapt
Stanford and University of WashingtonStudent driven feedback and sustainable solutions
to use AI effectively