Predicting the Next News Trends: The Advent of Intelligent Media Analysis

Angela Jeffrey, APRVice President Integrated Media, VMSMember, IPR Commission on PR Measurement & Evaluation

The Power of “AND”

“We are in a world where it is not PR or advertising, not qualitative or quantitative, not traditional media or new media, but PR AND advertising, qualitative AND quantitative, traditional media AND new media.”

Tom Collinger, Associate Dean of Medill’s Integrated Marketing

Communications Program

AND is the future. AND PR must lead the way.

Where We’re Heading

1. Discovering what you DO Know Decisions to Make News, Advertising, Social Media, Aggregated

2. Discovering what you Don’t Know New Technologies

3. Making Sense of it Net Positive & SHARE

Measuring Competitive News Measuring Competitive Advertising Measuring Competitive Social Media

An Integrated View

PART ONE:Discovering What You DO Know

Objectives & Definitions

It all starts with knowing what you need to measure! – See: “Using Public Relations Research to Drive Business Results” by

Paine, Draper and Jeffrey.

Must also have a clear understanding of:– Outputs – what you put “out there;” the results of tactical efforts,

such as clip counts, audience impressions, speeches given, etc.– Outtakes – whether or not anyone heard your message,

understood it, changed their opinion and is considering a behavioral change.

– Outcomes – bottom-line behavioral change, such as sales, stock price, employee retention, votes, etc.

Five-Step Monitoring & Measurement Process

1. Define audiences of importance to reach those goals, and prioritize.

2. Define organizational goals.

3. Set PR objectives against prioritized audiences that are specific and measurable.

4. Determine how you will monitor and measure each, with what tools, and benchmark.– Determine who/what to measure against (self or

competitors) – Choose Output, Outtake and Outcome tools– Determine how you will link them!

5. Measure continuously, and adjust programs accordingly.

Proof of Performance OR Business Intelligence?

Proof of Performance - Compare against self:– Over time or against objectives– Good CYA measure; good for evaluating tactics– But … business results may not follow

Business Intelligence - Compare against competitors:– Correlate to business results (survey scores, leads, sales) – Not always what you hope to see! – Actionable, true business intelligence worthy of C-Suite

Monitoring Choices

Comprehensive – must get every clip– Traditional clipping services plus online to supplement– Use for proof-of-performance – Most expensive option

Sampling – don’t need every clip– Limit search to key media only, or use combination of

comprehensive and sampling– Online aggregators are cheapest, but they miss a lot– Less expensive, so works better for large clip volumes

needed in competitive analysis; national versus vertical– Statistically, can apply multiplier to sample

Best Bet: Combination of Both

Tools & Services

Do-it-Yourself or Full-Service?– Google Searches and Excel Spreadsheets– Extensive time commitment, but less out-of-pocket

Tools for Monitoring and/or Analysis– News: VMS, Vocus, CisionPoint, BurrellesLuce, Dow

Jones Insight, CARMA, Echo– Social Media: Google and Google Alerts, BlogPulse,

BuzzMetrics, Attensity360, Radian6, Visible Technologies.– Advertising: Competitrack, Nielsen Monitor-Plus, Kantar

Media, VMS AdSight – Integrated: DIY Excel, VMS InSight 3 or Vantage

Pricing– Prices range dependent on comprehensiveness and

complexity

PART TWO:Discovering What You Don’t Know

Discovering New Issues

Historically: Market research surveys needed New Technologies:

– Web-based focus groups and surveys– DIY Facebook likes, Twitter searches and retweets;

bookmarks; votes; customer service feedback; internal surveys. Challenge: must aggregate the data yourself

– Human-powered search – services work by sending a text message and getting a response from a human “guides.”

New Automated Technologies

New technologies (i.e. Autonomy) that enable you to bring in a fire-hose of data and instantaneously:– Cluster into visual representations– Identify issues and interrelationships– “Conceptual Search” to find more of the ‘same’ types of

ideas. Predicting news tomorrow!

– What new trends am I seeing? Insights?– What can/should I do done differently?– Add terms into existing monitoring, and the cycle repeats.

Instant Discovery News & Social

Instant Discovery Advertising

Clustering Concepts & Connections

Clustering by Sentiment

Clustering Over Time

Conceptual – “More Like This”

Proactive Discovery Might Have …

… Prevented this with Some Speaker Training

PART THREE:Making Sense of it!

Importance of Competitive Analysis

Hundreds of studies have shown:– Measuring your own media footprint in isolation doesn’t

always reveal correlations to outcomes …Measuring competitively almost always does!

“Share of Discussion, Voice or Social Media” - is “the quantity and quality of your footprint compared to that of your competitors.”

Quantity and Quality matter for all media types! At a minimum, NET POSITIVE!

– “Exploring the Link between SHARE of Media Coverage and Business Outcomes,” www.instituteforpr.org.

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Correlation to Customer Preference Survey (thin blue line) is low without competitive analysis, but soars to .97 through Share of Discussion.

Measuring Competitive NEWS (Unpaid Media)

Qualitative Scoring of Clips

Tone – does the story leave you more positively inclined toward the company?

Messages Communicated – how well are your company’s key messages coming through versus those of your competitors? (Broad-bucket these for comparison);

Prominence – How high-up in the article is you company mentioned? Headline? Illustration? First 20%? Bottom 80%?

Dominance – How often is your brand mentioned? Is it exclusive, dominant, average or minor?

Terms from KDPaine’s Measuring Public Relationships

Qualitative Scoring of Clips

Audience Reached – define Tier 1 and Tier 2 media lists in advance, according to likely reach; what % of coverage was in those media sources?

Sources Mentioned – company spokespeople? Industry analysts? Customers? User groups? Who is quoted and what do they say?

Article Type – Feature? Industry overview? Product review? Blurb?

Call to Action – How many articles include a specific URL, 800# or other call-to-action?

Terms from KDPaine’s Measuring Public Relationships

Case Study - Are Qualitatives Enough?

IPR Jack Felton Golden Ruler Award – Porter Novelli/VMS – correlations with no key message r = .51. With key messages r = .97. BUT – only TWO of the six messages were moving the needle!

Quantitative Scoring of Clips

To measure Quantity, which score is best?– Clip Counts– Audience Impressions– Media Costs

• Major studies: Media Costs improve correlations up to 70% over Clip Counts and 32% over Impressions

– Captures reputation, size and prominence.– “A New Paradigm: Weighted Media Costs” from

IPR Commission – www.instituteforpr.org • BUT – Media Costs are confused with AVE, which is

condemned as a measure of PR Value - “Barcelona Principles,” www.instituteforpr.org, so Impressions preferred.

Qualitative & Quantitative Indices

A single number comprising both quantitative and qualitative clip scores work well

“Media indices” correlate better with outcomes Key is consistency for competitive analysis Example: SCORECARD (Ketchum ROI Lab)

Ketchum ROI Lab: Weighting for Quality

Source Tier 1 or 2: 0-20 points Tone: -15 to +15 points Message 1: 0-10 points Message 2: 0-10 points Message 3: 0-10 points Third party endorsement: 0-15 points Headline, Photo: 0-20 points TOTAL possible: 100 points

Theory behind it: 100 points would be a perfect story, so lower scores mean stories are less effective.

Multiply percentage of 100 points against Impressions or use “as is” for each clip.

Scoring “Net Positive” and “SoD”

If using Scorecard, Index works well for Share of Discussion. If not, here’s a simple formula:

– Capture competitive news coverage– Score Impressions and Tone– Add your Positive and Neutral together, and then subtract out

your Negative.– Result is: Net Favorable Impressions

Divide each company’s Net Favorable by the total of all to get your Share.

Example: Share of Discussion Calculations

Clients Total

Impr.

Positive

Plus

Neutral

Impr.

Negative

Impr.

Net

Positive

Impr.

Share of

Discussion

Firm A 140,000 100,000 (40,000) 60,000 44.4%

Firm B 250,000 150,000 (100,000) 50,000 37.0%

Firm C 75,000 50,000 (25,000) 25,000 18.5%

TOTALS: 465,000 300,000 (165,000) 135,000 100%

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Share of Discussion against Survey Scores

Plot sales, leads, web hits or survey scores on a chart with some time-lag behind SoD that reflects your sales cycle.

Easy Correlations Calculation!

Simple correlations can be pulled out of Excel using one of two commands: =CORREL or =PEARSON

Setup an Excel spreadsheet with your data tables where the first row is Share of Discussion, and the second is your business result.

  A B C D E F G

1Time  Period

Period 1

Period 2

Period 3

Period 4

Period 5

Period 6

2 SoD % 10.5 14.5 19.5 19.0 10.0 50.0

3 Leads 4 6 45 50 30 15

In an empty cell, enter the cell numbers of the starting and ending values in each row like this:

=Correl(B2:G2,B3:G3) Hit enter … and it returns a correlation of r = .547.

Measuring Competitive ADVERTISING

Importance of Competitive Analysis

Advertising must also do “competitive share” to correlate well to outcomes:

• Share of Voice is common practice• Can use media spend or impressions in same

formula as Share of Discussion with correlations to outcomes …

BUT - Ad folks aren’t any smarter than we are about measurement!

• No factor for quality! • Are all ads equal?

One Approach: AdBenchmarkIndeX from ABX

3 million people viewing and scoring TV, radio, print and internet ads

Answering internet questionnaire The Ad Index is a combination of 14 key variables, several of

which include:– remembering the advertiser – presence of a benefit – presence of any call to action– ability of ad to improve opinion

Will send you variables if desired!

Examples of High and Low Scoring TV Ads

Score = Score =

Examples of High and Low Scoring TV Ads

Score = Score =

An “effective” ad scores at 100+. Huge disparity in effectiveness scores!

Enormous Variation in Creative!

How To Weight Advertising Impressions

To estimate the impact of your advertising creative, create a survey with a scale:– An average ad worth the spend = 100 (100%)– A superb ad would be about 150%– A relatively poor ad would be 50%. – You can use values in between.

Take total impressions earned for your ad Multiply your impressions times your creative index percentage. Result = weighted impressions for advertising

– Example: • Impressions = 100,000• Creative Score = 82 • Effective Impressions = 82,000

Measuring CompetitiveSOCIAL MEDIA

Several New Points from AMEC & IPR

SHARE is critical here, too! Measuring Quantatively:

– Basic data is easy to measure, but not terribly valuable:• Number of: blog/video/content posts, Facebook posts,

Tweets, Facebook likes, Twitter followers, comments, linkbacks, likes, retweets, unique visits/visitors, time spent on site/content …

Source: Post-Barcelona Social Media Task Force, AMEC; www.instituteforpr.org

Great book – Social Media Metrics by Jim Sterne

Several New Points from AMEC & IPR

Measuring Qualitatively:– % accuracy/consistency of messaging– % favorable (positive, negative, neutral, mixed)– % of endorsement/opinion/advocacy/call to action– % of dislikes/badvocates– % change in volume– % share of conversation (overall or by topic)– Trend analysis over time … and more

Source: Post-Barcelona Social Media Task Force, AMEC; www.instituteforpr.org

At a Minimum …

For comparing cross-media, use:– Percentage Share of Net Positive Posts until better

metrics are defined– Can correlate to outcomes (like Share of

Discussion)– Can at least see directional relevance of Social

Media to News and Advertising

An Integrated View!

Royal Caribbean Ad

Royal Caribbean News Story

Sales forecast (blue line) was off by 9.5% against actual (pink line). Green line shows how accurate the forecast would have been w/News and Social Media!

Impact of News and SM on Advertising!

News and Social Media changes ad effectiveness all the time, not only in extreme cases.

10-30% swing in how people feel about your brand over time.

Know the potential impact PR is having, up or down.– Budget increases, more power in crisis situations

Taking an “integrated look is essential” – Won’t see these effects if you’re not looking for them

Quick calculation to quantify this impact!

The Negative Effect of News

IF Taco Bell’s budget was $30 million for Gordita Crunch campaign:

– Ads (pretest) scored 100; campaign spend was $30 million.

Crisis happens!– Ads (post-test) now score at 20, (20% of the original score)– the $30 million budget now has an impact only $6 million!

Marketing mix model with $6 million came close to matching actual customer counts and revenues!

Bottom line: News and social media reduced impact of the budget by $24 million!

DIY: Positive Impact of News

Have ad pre-testing service test ad effectiveness in a neutral news environment with a scoring system where 100 = an “effective” ad.– Example: your ad scores at 100 and budget is $10

million

Now conduct your PR campaign!

Have ad testing service repeat the ad effectiveness tests after your campaign:– Example: now the ad scores at 110 (10% higher!)

If the marketing spend is $10 million, PR has just added 10% more effectiveness to that campaign, or produced a real value of $1 million!

Integration Yields New Star!

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DIY: Measuring Message Synergy!

Step One:

– News: Net Positive Share of Discussion by Impressions and Message

– Advertising: Share of Voice by Impressions and Message (assuming creative is good)

– Social Media: Net Positive Share of Social by Post and Message.

Pull Excel chart comparing Share (of 100%) for each media type by Message

Is there message consistency and symmetry?

Comparing Messaging across All Mediums

0%

10%

20%

30%

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Cancer Cardiology Endocrine Neurology Orthopedics Pediatrics Research

Seattle Children's SoD

Seattle Children's SoV

Seattle Children's SoS

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Seattle Children's is in Top 3 competitively in11 of 17 categories based on integrated communications

For White Papers or More Information

The New Found Impact of PR on Advertising,” A VMS paper by Gary Getto, VP Integrated Media Research, VMS

“A New Paradigm for Media Analysis: Media Cost Weighting,” an IPR Commission paper by Angela Jeffrey, Dr. Brad Rawlins and Bruce Jeffries-Fox.

“Using Public Relations Research to Drive Business Results” an IPR Commission paper by Angela Jeffrey, Katie Paine, Pauline Draper

“Exploring the Link between SHARE of Media Coverage Volume and Business Outcomes,” an IPR Commission paper by Angela Jeffrey, Dr. David Michaelson and Dr. Don Stacks.

Email ajeffrey@vmsinfo.com or Call 1-214-722-9006