prudence stardex mice
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PRUDENCEPRUDENCE
STARDEXSTARDEX
MICEMICE
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/mps/
STARDEXSTAtisical and Regional
dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes for European regions
Clare GoodessClimatic Research Unit, UK
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/stardex/
The STARDEX team• University of East Anglia, UK • King's College London, UK• Fundación para la Investigación del Clima, Spain • University of Bern, Switzerland • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, France• Servizio Meteorologico Regional, ARPA-Emilia Romagna, Italy• Atmospheric dynamics group, University of Bologna, Italy• Danish Meteorological Institute, Denmark • Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, Switzerland• Fachhochschule Stuttgart - Hochschule für Technik, Germany• Institut für Wasserbau, Germany• University of Thessaloniki, Greece
The STARDEX objectives
• To rigorously & systematically inter-compare & evaluate statistical & dynamical downscaling methods for the reconstruction of observed extremes & the construction of scenarios of extremes for selected European regions.
• To identify the more robust downscaling techniques & to apply them to provide reliable & plausible future scenarios of temperature & precipitation-based extremes for selected European regions.
Statistical downscaling
Relationships between larger-scale climate variables & local surface climate variables, derived from observed data, are applied to climate model output……...
based on the two assumptions that:• larger-scale variables are more reliably simulated• relationships remain valid in a changed climate
Spatially coherent changes in extremes
have occurred over the last 40 years...
1958-2000 trend JJA heat wave duration
Scale is days per year. Red is increasing Malcolm Haylock, UEA
Property damage: US$ 13 bnProperty damage: US$ 13 bnFatalities: 27,000 (14,800 in France)Fatalities: 27,000 (14,800 in France)
Western EuropeWestern EuropeAugust 2003August 2003
1958-2000 trend in JJA heavy rain events
Scale is days per year. Blue is increasing
Central and Eastern EuropeCentral and Eastern EuropeAugust 2002August 2002
Fatalities: > 100Fatalities: > 100Economic losses: > US$18 bnEconomic losses: > US$18 bnInsured losses: > US$3 bnInsured losses: > US$3 bn
Malcolm Haylock, UEA
In part, these changes can be explained by changes in circulation
& other predictors
e.g., Heavy winter rainfall and links with North Atlantic Oscillation/SLPHaylock & Goodess, IJC, 2004
The STARDEX SDS methods • multiple linear regression• canonical correlation analysis• artificial neural networks• multivariate autoregressive model• conditional re-sampling & other analogue-based methods• methods based on a potential precipitation circulation
index & critical circulation patterns• conditional weather generator• local & dynamical scaling
Handling many combinations of different
methods (20+), regions (7), indices (13) & seasons (4)
was difficult!
Key messages from the STARDEX verification work
Skill varies station-station, season-season, index-index, method-method
SE England: Haylock et al., IJC
Winter Spring
Summer Autumn
A2 scenario changes for the W Alps: Schmidli et al., GRL
In majority of cases no consistently superior model, so a major recommendation is to use a range of the better SDS methods – just as the recommendation is to use multiple GCMs/RCMs
Winter
A2 scenario changes for the W Alps: Schmidli et al., GRL
Uncertainties are larger/skill lower – so use scenarios of summer rainfall with care
Winter
Summer
Projected changes in flow duration
Cochem gauge, Mosel (USTUTT-IWS)
Black: presentGreen: B2, 2080sRed: A2, 2080s
% change in greatest 5-day winter rainfallA2, 2080s
% change in greatest 5-day winter rainfall, 1958-2001,611 stations
We have produced recommendations and guidelines for those wanting to undertake SDS – and to help users identify the most suitable methods
For example:
• Robustness criteria
• Applications criteria
• Performance criteria
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/stardex
We have produced outputs in a wide range of formats: reports, papers and information sheets
So STARDEX provides a sound scientific starting
point for ENSEMBLES…..
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/stardex/