ps commentary 06.04.2010 - (en) so bankers, come rally!

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  • 8/9/2019 PS Commentary 06.04.2010 - (EN) So Bankers, Come Rally!

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    The Alternative Investment Consultancy06.04.2010

    Now, back to the US FinReg. Since the G20 summit in April 2009, during which the process of a global regulatory reformwas kicked off, the world listened to many speeches, but saw little action.

    In the meanwhile, this much is clear. Germany wants to hold on to a consolidated universal banking system, even if thecrisis clearly highlighted how susceptive German saving banks and Landesbanken are to politicial intervention. A break-up, a la Volcker rule, is out of the question for Merkel. The UK is desperately looking for ways to protect the city from aloss of importance. During the last business cycle, London made its way up to the worlds most important financialcentre, but lost its competitive edge in the recent 24 months. Right now, London and New York are leading the GlobalFinancial Centre Index head to head. Due to the continued dominant economic position of the financial industry, UKfaced an overproportionally fierce recession. The crisis highlighted how much the UK government bets on Canary Wharfswell-being and offshore commodity revenues, instead of pushing for innovating the declining industrial competitiveness.Media and markets were wrongly enamored by the admittedly awkward, but economically insignificant Greeks. The UKshould be added to the PIIGS acronym. Lets call them PIIGUKS.

    For all Austrian readers. Although the Austrian banking system disappeared from international headlines after theKrugman spike in April 2009, the systems fragility has not changed since. Volksbanken implosion, Hypo-Alpe-Adriacriminal case, swaying Raiffeisen conglomerate (incl informant farce) have not yet opened the eyes of the Austriancitizens to how much risk the dependence on a nepotistic system, in combination with an overextended regulatoryframework can mean for an economy. Canada serves as an example, showing how the risk of a concentrated bankingmarket can be managed adequately, by applying transparency and functioning regulatory agencies. In a conversationwith a portfolio manager last week, he stated (o-tone): If Austria were not in the Eurozone, we would top-rank it on ourlist of short-worthy countries. Excursus finished.

    Over the past year I insistently wrote about the necessity (here, here and here), to anchor the TBTF ( incl TooInterconnected To Fail-TITF) issue as a lynchpin of an overdue banking reform. Since last autumn a growing number ofrenowned central bankers are repetitively insisting on the same. Mervyn King, Paul Volcker, Richard Fisher and ThomasHoenig articulated their preference, to either break up system-relevant banks or to limit their service range in a way thatminimizes the exposure of public liability in case of a crisis. The senators Bernie Sanders and Ted Kaufman agree to thesame.

    www.panthera.mc

    After having successfully signed the Obamacare Package with 22 different pens, including a one-time retention because of formal errors, and the barely recognized, but all the more remarkableStudent Loans reform, Obamas and Washingtons attention is now refocussing on the overduefinancial market reform. Todays PS Commentary provides an overview on the current state ofthe reform debate.

    For those who want to read up on the healthcare reform details, please find readable links below:

    Ad Cost/Benefits (CBO Report)

    Ad Effects on prevention

    Ad Cost reduction

    Ad Coverage extension

    Ad Immediate effects in 2010

    Ad Historic reform dimension

    http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/eu-antwort-auf-us-plaene-firewalls-sollen-eigenhandel-deutscher-banken-absichern;2555190http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/31521254-2d4e-11df-9c5b-00144feabdc0.htmlhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/31521254-2d4e-11df-9c5b-00144feabdc0.htmlhttp://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=de&pcode=tsieb020http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/austria/http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/austria/http://panthera.mc/16.htmlhttp://panthera.mc/13.htmlhttp://panthera.mc/04.htmlhttp://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/21/the-consensus-on-big-banks-begins-to-move/http://baselinescenario.com/2009/12/17/paul-volcker-picks-up-a-bat/http://baselinescenario.com/2010/03/03/dallas-fed-president-break-up-big-banks/http://baselinescenario.com/2010/01/07/hoenig-talks-sense-on-casino-banks/http://baselinescenario.com/2010/01/07/hoenig-talks-sense-on-casino-banks/http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/09/the-too-big-to-fail-too-big-to-exist-act-of-2009/http://baselinescenario.com/2010/03/10/the-speech-for-which-we-have-been-waiting/http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/23/AR2010032301071.htmlhttp://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1974490,00.htmlhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8586492.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8586492.stmhttp://www1.voanews.com/english/news/usa/Obama-Student-Loan-Reform-Helps-Students-Economy-89321952.htmlhttp://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=546http://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=d9b37a0f666137ff8a0786a4670b10b3http://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=6d77ec433d28cb18f9ae4b1c4ef0eae1http://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=b5b8fa880b647296f1447378ec8e4eddhttp://docs.house.gov/energycommerce/IMMEDIATE_PROVISIONS.pdfhttp://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=c9e8babbe6426a632efc23bc25b7a141http://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=c9e8babbe6426a632efc23bc25b7a141http://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=c9e8babbe6426a632efc23bc25b7a141http://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=c9e8babbe6426a632efc23bc25b7a141http://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=c9e8babbe6426a632efc23bc25b7a141http://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=c9e8babbe6426a632efc23bc25b7a141http://docs.house.gov/energycommerce/IMMEDIATE_PROVISIONS.pdfhttp://docs.house.gov/energycommerce/IMMEDIATE_PROVISIONS.pdfhttp://docs.house.gov/energycommerce/IMMEDIATE_PROVISIONS.pdfhttp://docs.house.gov/energycommerce/IMMEDIATE_PROVISIONS.pdfhttp://docs.house.gov/energycommerce/IMMEDIATE_PROVISIONS.pdfhttp://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=b5b8fa880b647296f1447378ec8e4eddhttp://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=b5b8fa880b647296f1447378ec8e4eddhttp://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=b5b8fa880b647296f1447378ec8e4eddhttp://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=6d77ec433d28cb18f9ae4b1c4ef0eae1http://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=6d77ec433d28cb18f9ae4b1c4ef0eae1http://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=6d77ec433d28cb18f9ae4b1c4ef0eae1http://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=d9b37a0f666137ff8a0786a4670b10b3http://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=d9b37a0f666137ff8a0786a4670b10b3http://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=d9b37a0f666137ff8a0786a4670b10b3http://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=d9b37a0f666137ff8a0786a4670b10b3http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=546http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=546http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=546http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=546http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=546http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/usa/Obama-Student-Loan-Reform-Helps-Students-Economy-89321952.htmlhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8586492.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8586492.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8586492.stmhttp://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1974490,00.htmlhttp://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1974490,00.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/23/AR2010032301071.htmlhttp://baselinescenario.com/2010/03/10/the-speech-for-which-we-have-been-waiting/http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/09/the-too-big-to-fail-too-big-to-exist-act-of-2009/http://baselinescenario.com/2010/01/07/hoenig-talks-sense-on-casino-banks/http://baselinescenario.com/2010/01/07/hoenig-talks-sense-on-casino-banks/http://baselinescenario.com/2010/03/03/dallas-fed-president-break-up-big-banks/http://baselinescenario.com/2009/12/17/paul-volcker-picks-up-a-bat/http://baselinescenario.com/2009/12/17/paul-volcker-picks-up-a-bat/http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/21/the-consensus-on-big-banks-begins-to-move/http://panthera.mc/04.htmlhttp://panthera.mc/13.htmlhttp://panthera.mc/16.htmlhttp://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/austria/http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/austria/http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/austria/http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=de&pcode=tsieb020http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=de&pcode=tsieb020http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=de&pcode=tsieb020http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=de&pcode=tsieb020http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=de&pcode=tsieb020http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/31521254-2d4e-11df-9c5b-00144feabdc0.htmlhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/31521254-2d4e-11df-9c5b-00144feabdc0.htmlhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/31521254-2d4e-11df-9c5b-00144feabdc0.htmlhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/31521254-2d4e-11df-9c5b-00144feabdc0.htmlhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/31521254-2d4e-11df-9c5b-00144feabdc0.htmlhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/31521254-2d4e-11df-9c5b-00144feabdc0.htmlhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/31521254-2d4e-11df-9c5b-00144feabdc0.htmlhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/31521254-2d4e-11df-9c5b-00144feabdc0.htmlhttp://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/eu-antwort-auf-us-plaene-firewalls-sollen-eigenhandel-deutscher-banken-absichern;2555190http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/eu-antwort-auf-us-plaene-firewalls-sollen-eigenhandel-deutscher-banken-absichern;2555190http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/eu-antwort-auf-us-plaene-firewalls-sollen-eigenhandel-deutscher-banken-absichern;2555190http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/eu-antwort-auf-us-plaene-firewalls-sollen-eigenhandel-deutscher-banken-absichern;2555190http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/eu-antwort-auf-us-plaene-firewalls-sollen-eigenhandel-deutscher-banken-absichern;2555190http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/
  • 8/9/2019 PS Commentary 06.04.2010 - (EN) So Bankers, Come Rally!

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    The Alternative Investment Consultancy06.04.2010

    www.panthera.mc

    The Obama Administration understands the necessity to priorize the TBTF/TITF issue. In one of his recent Dealbookcolumns, Andrew Ross Sorkin reports about chatting with Tim Geithner over cookies in his office across from the WhiteHouse. During this conversation, Geithner stated that TBTF/TITF, together with the regulation of derivatives and the set

    up of a Consumer Protection Agency, remain the core pillars of the White Houses FinReg plans. For Geithner, increasedminimum capital requirements (in % and quality of assets) offer the best possible lever to address the issue.. Geithner inthe original:

    Wedont know where the next crisis is going to come from,Geithner told me. Wewontbe able toforesee it. Werenot going to pre-empt all future bubbles. So we want to build a much bigger cushioninto the system against those basic human limitations. I dont want a system that depends onclairvoyance or bravery.He added, Thetop three things to get done are capital, capital and capital.

    To be fair. Despite all intervention attempts of lobbyists, US politicians and experts have pursued an intense debate

    about an adaequate form of FinReg since early 2009. President Obama, Tim Geithner, Chris Dodd, Barney Frank and BenBernanke are congruent in their causal pronouncements. The same is true for their advised goal. Now its time toconsolidate the divergent implementation proposals and synchronize them in an international context.

    The recent US debates led to the following bill drafts:In the Senate - the Dodd Plan. Mid March, after meandering negotiations with the Republicans, Senator Chris Dodd(D), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Bnaking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, presented his draft bill RestoringAmerican Financial Stability. He suggests a rather toothless collection of reform steps, which leave the final decision onspecifications (ie exact level of tier 1 capital requirements) with institutions like the Fed. As Ezra Klein pinpoints, theDodd plan sufficiently addresses the information deficit, but gets hesitant when it comes to strong, regulatory actions.On a wide range of issues and proposed implementation recommendations, Chris Dodds positions are alinged with the

    ideas of the White House. Even the resolute figther for an independent Consumer Protection Agency, Elisabeth Warren,basically agrees to Dodds plan. But it simply doesnt reach far enough.

    Dodd knows that the core of his paper is too weakto carry a TBTF solution over the finish line, after Republicans and thebanking lobby launch the expected full frontal attack. Almost simultaneous to the presentation of his plan, Senator TedKaufmann (also D) published his ideas on how a reform should look like. He addresses the issues brisk anduncompromisingly (ie restore Glass-Steagall, repeal the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, support the Volcker rule)and could become the White Knight of the Democrats. It now needs inner-party alignment under the supervision of theWhite House. Mike Konczal, fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, summarizes appealingly, which passages of the Dodd Planneed to be reinforced :

    Hard limits related to both size caps relative to GDP and leverage ratio must be specified in the bill. This will put afloor to the difficulty of resolution and the damage to the economy.

    The Volcker Rule should be accepted outright, rather than through the Financial Stability Oversight Council decision. The Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection must have full rule-making authority over non-bank lenders, including

    auto lenders. The Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection must keep its lack of preemption over state regulation. The derivatives section should be included to require all standardized derivatives to trade on an exchange with

    clearing, keeping with the original financial regulatory reform language introduced by President Obama in June09. The Financial Stability Oversight Council should not have the ability to alter the derivatives rules, override the Bureau

    of Consumer Financial Protection or change other regulations by a vote. Early remediation requirements should be defined as to intervene earlier in the event of financial decline for a large

    systemically risky financial firm with a rule written by Congress. There should be more focus on investing in high end, internationally focused position monitoring for large

    systemically risky financial firms. In the light of recent scandals, there should be extra language included that targets fraud in accountancy and

    directly addresses issues of off-balance sheet reform.

    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  • 8/9/2019 PS Commentary 06.04.2010 - (EN) So Bankers, Come Rally!

    3/3

    The Alternative Investment Consultancy06.04.2010

    Markus Schuller

    written by

    www.panthera.mc

    In the House, Barney Frank, Chairman of the House Financial Service Committee, presented his bill proposal already atthe end of 2009. By that time, Frank and Obama intended to put it to the vote before Xmas. Due to the increasingdomestic weakness of the president a concensus developed to process the long reform agenda of the White House step-

    by-step. The healthcare reform was chosen as the higher priority. Today we can assume that Franks plan will be workedinto the inner-party negotiations between Dodd and Obama.

    If the statements ofPaul Volcker and Robert Gibbs are to believed, a final FinReg plan will be negotiated between theSenate, the House and the Administration by the end of May. I consider this timetable as highly ambitious. The highpace is understandable, as, in parallel to the domestic discussions, the international negotiations regarding acoordinated approach are fairly advanced. At the G20 Summit in London (Apr09), it was decided to use a Baselvehicleas the implementation platform. Since, Basel III is negotiated by the G20 members and industry experts. In December2009, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision presented its first draft (Strengthening the resilience of the bankingsector). On April 16th 2010 an evaluation deadline is set for feedback on the draft. For the second half of 2010 it is

    scheduled to run scenarios on the agreed core parameters. If the USA wants to see a strong handwriting of its ownideas being part of Basel III, it is urged to clarify its domestic preferences.

    As aptly expressed by a business newspaper.We Are Living in Financial Times.

    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