public education in the 83rd legislature
TRANSCRIPT
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January 28, 2013
United Methodist WomensLegislative Conference
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Public Education in the 83rdLegislative Session
The state budget
School finance challenges andopportunities
Educational need
The potential impact of litigation
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The State Budget
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The Recovering Economy
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Population growth
8% of population 19% of growth
Job growth Employment above pre-recession levels
Texas unemployment rate down to 6.1%
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Major Tax Revenue Sources, AllFunds,2012-2013 Biennium
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Revenue Source
CertificationGrowth
Estimate
New BREGrowth
Rate
Sales Tax 10.3% 22.4%
Motor Vehicle Sales Tax 13.3% 30.2%
Franchise Tax 4.9% 18.7%
Natural Gas Production 24.8% 41.5%Oil Production 1.5% 78.4%
All Taxes 8.6% 22.0%
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Improved State Sales TaxCollections
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$1,600.0
$1,650.0
$1,700.0
$1,750.0
$1,800.0
$1,850.0
$1,900.0
$1,950.0
$2,000.0
$2,050.0
$2,100.0
1-Year Moving Average Sales Tax Collections
2009
2012
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Projected Ending Balances(in thousands)
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General RevenueFund
EconomicStabilization
Fund
Original BRE Forecast 8-31-13Balance ($4,273,557) $9,405,307
Previous Forecast 8-31-13 Balance $1,605,546 $7,320,728
New Forecast 8-31-13 Balance $8,845,531 $8,065,362
New Forecast 8-31-15 Balance Approx.$5,500,000*
$11,756,442
Assumes House version of General Appropriations Act as filed.Senate version spends about $174 million less than House.
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Property Value Growth
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Significant growth ahead Residential
Oil and gas
Refinery and energy growth
Property value growth offsets cost of enrollmentgrowth and reduces state costs
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2012-13 SupplementalAppropriations
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Agency2013
Supplemental
Texas Education Agency ReversePayment Delay
$1.750
Texas Education Agency Shortfall* 0.300Health and Human ServicesCommission
3.500
Department of Aging and DisabilityServices 1.000
Other 0.200
Subtotal $6.750Amounts in billions, and represent all funds other than federal.* Result of overestimating savings from payment delay. Does not includeother supplemental needs.
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Education Is Not the Only Crisis
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Water $2 billion loan program under consideration
Transportation
$4 billion request
Healthcare
Rising costs for current and future biennium
Decisions relative to Medicaid will influence cost
requirements
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State Spending Limit
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Pay-as-You Go Limit (Art. III, Sec. 49a) Requires Comptroller to certify appropriations
4/5ths vote required to override failure to certify
Limitation on the Growth of Appropriations (Art.VIII, Sec. 22)
Applies to appropriations from state taxes notdedicated by the Constitution
Limits increases to growth in total personal incomein the state Applies to about $70 billion of current GR budget
Can be overridden with majority vote
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School Finance Challenges andOpportunities
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School Finance Challenges
Lack of interest in working on finance issueswithout Supreme Court decision
Lack of certainty over relationship betweenstudent learning and educational investment
We dont know what to do
Texas schools are doing well enough
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Wait for the Courts?
Courts unlikely to provide solution, onlyindicate whether the current system is or isntconstitutional
School finance challenges are on-going, long-term work should be constant andincremental
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Does Money Matter?
Performance
Measure
Current Law
# Districts # ADA # WADA
WADA
Ratio
Revenue /
WADA% Satisfactory all 9th grade EOCs
1,000 ADA
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We Dont Know What to DoSec. 42.007. EQUALIZED FUNDING ELEMENTS. (a) TheLegislative Budget Board shall adopt rules, subject to
appropriate notice and opportunity for public comment, for thecalculation for each year of a biennium of the qualified fundingelements, in accordance with Subsection (c), necessary toachieve the state policy under Section 42.001.
(b) Before each regular session of the legislature, theboard shall, as determined by the board, report the equalizedfunding elements to the commissioner and the legislature.
(c) The funding elements must include:
(1) a basic allotment for the purposes of Section42.101 that, when combined with the guaranteed yield
component provided by Subchapter F, represents the cost perstudent of a regular education program that meets all mandatesof law and regulation;
(2) adjustments designed to reflect the variation inknown resource costs and costs of education beyond the controlof school districts;
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We Dont Know What to Do
LBB Studies have not taken place
Interim Committees prior to last two legislativesessions have not provided clearrecommendations
2003 Study indicated need for additionalinvestment
Studies for litigation by various experts agreeon need for investment
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Texas Schools are Doing WellEnough
Although TAKS scores improved over time,new assessment scores proving significantchallenge for high school students
Although disaggregated NAEP scores are ator above average, overall scores show needfor improvement
SAT, ACT show need for growth
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Educational Need
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Cumulative Exit-Level TAKS Test Passing Rates (2006-2010)
Compared to 2012 STAAR Results for 9th Grade*(by year of First Attempt, All Tests Taken)
*EOCs include Algebra I, English I Reading, English I Writing, Biology and World Geography
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TAKS PROGRAM Enrolled Grade Level
Subject Area Tested 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Reading/Eng. Lang. Arts *
Mathematics *
Writing
Science *
Social Studies *
* = Test must be passed for graduation.
STAAR PROGRAM Enrolled Grade Level EOC Tests**
Subject/Courses Tested 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Reading/Eng. I, II, III * * *, ***
Writing / Eng. I, II, III * * * ***
Mathematics/Algebra I,
Geometry, Algebra II * * *, ***
Science/Biology, Chemistry,
Physics
* * *
Soc. Studies/World Geog.,
World History, US History * * *
* = Performance must be at/above minimum level to contribute to cumulative scores in each of the four core areas.
**EOC tests are taken by pre-9th
grade students if they are completing the relevant courses for high school credit.
***For Recommended Plan, students must achieve Level II: Satisfactory) on Algebra II and English III Reading and
Writing tests; for Distinguished/Advanced Plan, students must perform at Level III: Advanced on these two tests.
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Figure 30. % of Points Needed to Reach VariousPerformance Standards on STAAR ExamsSource: TEA Raw Score Conversion Tables. Information subject to change for future administrations based on post-equating of live data following each administration.
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2011-12 & 2012-13
Standard
2013-14 and 2014-15
Standard
2015-16 and beyond
Final
Recommended
Subject Min. Sat. Adv. Min. Sat. Adv. Min Sat. Adv.
English I Reading
(paper) 48% 54% 82% 55% 61% 82% 59% 64% 82%
English I Reading
(online) 46% 52% 80% 54% 57% 80% 57% 63% 80%
Writing I 60% 65% 92% 65% 69% 92% 68% 73% 92%
Algebra I 31% 37% 78% 44% 50% 78% 57% 63% 78%Biology 31% 37% 83% 44% 50% 83% 56% 61% 83%
World Geography 40% 46% 84% 53% 57% 84% 65% 69% 84%
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Relationship between Performance and
Percent Economically Disadvantaged
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R = 0.5736
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 20 40 60 80%EconomicDisadvatnaged
% Commended - Math
2010-11 % Economic Disadvantaged vs. %
Commended - Math
Districts > 1,000 ADA
R = 0.6097
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100%EconomicDisadvatnaged
% At or Above Criterion - SAT/ACT
2010-11 % Economic Disadvantaged vs. % At or Above
Criterion - SAT/ACT
Districts > 1,000 ADA
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The potential impact of litigation
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Constitutional Provisions
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Two provisions of the Texas Constitution are at the centerof school finance litigation. The first, Article VII, section 1the education clause-provides:
A general diffusion of knowledge being essential tothe preservation of liberties and rights of the people,it shall be the duty of the Legislature to establishand make suitable provision for the support andmaintenance of an efficient system of public freeschools.
TEX. CONST. art. VII 1. The second, Article VIII, section 1-e, provides:
No State ad valorem taxes shall be levied upon any
property within this State.
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Litigation Timing
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Six groups have filed Closing of evidence expected January 31
Closing remarks February 4, possible oral rulingfrom the bench
Written order expected late February / EarlyMarch
Appeal (potentially directly to Supreme Court)
Supreme Court Decision - late 2013 to early 2014 If the plaintiffs are successful, legislative
response potentially during special session prior
to 2014-15 or during the 2015 regular session
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Amanda Brownson, Ph. D.
Dee Carney
Curtis Culwell, Ed. D.
Chris Grammer
Bob Popinski
Larry Throm
Maria Whitsett, Ph.D.Joe Wisnoski
Associates
Lynn M. Moak
Daniel T. CaseyPartners
Thomas V. Alvis Ph. D.
Larry Groppel Ed. D.
Kathy Mathias
Mary McKeown-Moak, Ph. D.
Alicia Thomas, Ph. D.Consultants
Susan Moak
Kari RuehmanAdministrative Staff
400 West 15th Street, Suite 1410, Austin, Texas 78701-1648
Ph. (512) 485-7878 Fax (512) 485-7888
www.moakcasey.com
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