public health costs of road safety
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Public health costs of road safety. Christopher Peck – CTC, the national cycling charity (UK). Velo-City 2013 Vienna. What is road safety?. “By 2020 there will be 1.9m killed each year on the roads, 50m injured.” – UN Decade of Road Safety. Road deaths in GB 1930-2010. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Public health costs of road safety
Christopher Peck – CTC, the national cycling charity (UK)
Velo-City 2013 Vienna
What is road safety?
“By 2020 there will be 1.9m killed each year on the roads, 50m injured.” – UN Decade of Road Safety
Road deaths in GB 1930-2010
Cycle fatalities have fallen by 92% since the 1940s
Rate per 100,000 people
19501952
19541956
19581960
19621964
19661968
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Fata
lities
per
100
,000
Per billion kms
19501952
19541956
19581960
19621964
19661968
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100
20
40
60
80
100
120
Fata
lities
per
bill
ion
kms
How to get it wrong, spectacularly“As you massively increase the amount of people who cycle, your figures for deaths go up. On the European table I have here, the Netherlands is fourth from the bottom, with 0.84 per 100,000 of population, whereas we [UK] are seventh with 0.17. …I think the Netherlands might want to come and see us to find out how we are making sure that so few people are killed in cycling terms as we increase the numbers of people cycling, because the figures would indicate that we can perhaps do a bit better than them.”- Road Safety Minister Mike Penning, speaking in the UK Parliament in 2012
Measuring risk of cycling, wrong and right
Pedestr
ians
Cyclist
s
Motorcyclis
ts
Car occu
pants
Bus occu
pants
Van occupan
ts
HGV occupants
Other veh
icle occu
pants
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Others killed in collision with road user
Road user killed
Road
dea
ths
Cars, buses, van and lorries present far more risk to other road users, whereas pedestrians, cyc-lists and motorcyclists are more often victims.
Which road user is involved in the most road deaths?
453
107
362
883
7 34 27 28
Cyclist
s
Motorcyclis
ts
Car occu
pants
Bus occu
pants
Van occu
pants
HGV occupan
ts0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20Ro
ad d
eath
s of t
hrid
par
ties p
er b
illio
n m
iles
Per billion miles travelled cycles are involved in fewer deaths of other road users than any other mode of trans-port.
Which road user represents the most danger per mile travelled?
19781979
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
UK USA Netherlands Italy Germany Sweden
% o
bese
or o
verw
eigh
t
Overweight and obese, 1980-2011
In the USA, obesity increased from
Obese15%
Over-weight32%
Normal or under
53%
1978
Obese36%
Over-weight33%
Normal or under31%
2010
Public health consequences of…
All deaths Cancer Diseases of the circulatory system
Transport accidents Cycles -
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
484,367
143,181 139,706
1,815 98
2011
Eng
land
and
Wal
es d
eath
s
59,568
83,613
Other cancers
Breast, prostate, colorectal
Physical inactivity reduces mortality risks of these cancers by 30-50%
Around 35% of cardiovascular diseases attributable to physical inactivity + another ~25% partly attributable to air pollution
Where ‘road safety’ goes wrong
• Any intervention or law that reduces physical activity will almost inevitably do more harm than good.
• de Jong (2012) – helmet legislation or promotion only has a net health benefit if injuries prevented exceed health costs lost to reduced cycling.
• This is: “very difficult to achieve except in extreme circumstances”
Numbers of people killed or seriously injured Very bad
Rate of death or injury to users per 100,000 population (current) Poor
Rate of death or injury per mile, trip or hour (measured by some) Better
Rate of death or injury to third parties (danger posed) GoodOverall public health impact of different transport modes (road death or injury caused AND air quality, cardiovascular disease etc)
Best
Conclusions • Set targets and measure the right things…
• Get the balance right between promoting cycling for public health and road safety campaigns or laws which deter people from cycling
Questions?
• How is safety and risk measured where you live?
• How do we change institutional and organisational approaches to risk and safety?
Thanks!Christopher Peck CTC – the national cycling [email protected]