Public Opinion and Public Opinion and Political ActionPolitical Action

Chapter 6Chapter 6

Edwards, Wattenberg, and LineberryEdwards, Wattenberg, and Lineberry

Government in America: People, Politics, and PolicyGovernment in America: People, Politics, and Policy

Fourteenth EditionFourteenth Edition

What teachers think I do.

IntroductionIntroduction Public OpinionPublic Opinion

Population’s distribution of the beliefs about politics & issuesPopulation’s distribution of the beliefs about politics & issues

DemographyDemography The science of population changesThe science of population changes

CensusCensus Required every 10 years by the ConstitutionRequired every 10 years by the Constitution

The American PeopleThe American People Melting PotMelting Pot: the mixing of cultures, ideas, and : the mixing of cultures, ideas, and

peoples that has changed the American nationpeoples that has changed the American nation

Minority MajorityMinority Majority: the emergence of a non-: the emergence of a non-Caucasian majorityCaucasian majority

Political culturePolitical culture is an overall set of values is an overall set of values widely shared within a society.widely shared within a society.

A NATION OFA NATION OFIMMIGRANTSIMMIGRANTS

““MELTING POT”MELTING POT”

““SALAD BOWL”SALAD BOWL”

SHOULD SHOULD THE U.S. BE THE U.S. BE A MELTING A MELTING

POTPOTOROR

SALAD SALAD BOWLBOWL

??????

5 minutes5 minutes50 words50 words

““Pop” EssayPop” Essay

The American PeopleThe American People

EDUCATION INFLUENCES EVERYTHING

The American PeopleThe American People An Immigrant SocietyAn Immigrant Society

Three waves of immigration:Three waves of immigration: Northwestern Europeans (Mid to late 1800s)Northwestern Europeans (Mid to late 1800s)

Southern & eastern Europeans (late 1800sSouthern & eastern Europeans (late 1800sthth, early 20, early 20thth))

Hispanics and Asians (late 1900s - today)Hispanics and Asians (late 1900s - today)

INTERNAL MIGRATIONINTERNAL MIGRATION

The Regional ShiftThe Regional Shift Population shift from Population shift from

east to west and north to east to west and north to southsouth

ReapportionmentReapportionment: : the process of reallocating the process of reallocating seats in the House of seats in the House of Representatives every 10 Representatives every 10 years on the basis of the years on the basis of the results of the censusresults of the census

1944 ELECTORAL COLLEGE1944 ELECTORAL COLLEGE

2012 ELECTORAL COLLEGE2012 ELECTORAL COLLEGE

The American PeopleThe American People The Graying of AmericaThe Graying of America

Fastest growing age group is over 65Fastest growing age group is over 65 Potential drain on Social SecurityPotential drain on Social Security

Pay as you go systemPay as you go systemIn 1942, 42 workers per retireeIn 1942, 42 workers per retireeIn 2040, ~2 workers per retireeIn 2040, ~2 workers per retiree

How Americans Learn About How Americans Learn About Politics: Political SocializationPolitics: Political Socialization

Political SocializationPolitical Socialization:: The process through which and individual The process through which and individual

acquires their particular political orientation.acquires their particular political orientation.

The Process of Political SocializationThe Process of Political Socialization The FamilyThe Family: Most important factor.: Most important factor.

How Americans Learn About How Americans Learn About Politics: Political SocializationPolitics: Political Socialization

Sources of Political SocializationSources of Political Socialization

Family membersFamily members

PeersPeers

SchoolSchool

ReligionReligion

Media (especially television)Media (especially television)

Demographics: race, ethnicity, gender, age, and region.Demographics: race, ethnicity, gender, age, and region.

Outside events.Outside events.

Figure 11.2- Religious Self-IdentificationFigure 11.2- Religious Self-Identification

Back

First-Year College Student IdeologyFirst-Year College Student Ideology

Back

Age, Voting & Political SocializationAge, Voting & Political SocializationAging increases political participation and Aging increases political participation and

strength of party attachment.strength of party attachment.

Measuring Public Opinion and Measuring Public Opinion and Political InformationPolitical InformationHow Polls Are ConductedHow Polls Are Conducted

SampleSample

The small proportion of people who are chosenThe small proportion of people who are chosen

Random SamplingRandom Sampling

Everyone should have an equal probabilityEveryone should have an equal probability

Sampling ErrorSampling Error

Level of confidence in the findings of a pollLevel of confidence in the findings of a poll

Shortcomings of PollingShortcomings of Polling

Must consider Must consider margin of errormargin of error..

May make May make errors in selecting the sampleerrors in selecting the sample..

Biased, awkward wording of questionsBiased, awkward wording of questions

Polls Polls limit respondents’ optionslimit respondents’ options..

People may not have enough information to answer.People may not have enough information to answer.

Measures of Measures of intensityintensity may be imprecise. may be imprecise.

Figure 11.6- Random Digit DialingFigure 11.6- Random Digit Dialing

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04/19/23 political parties 33

Figure 11.3- Views on Hurricane KatrinaFigure 11.3- Views on Hurricane Katrina

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Figure 11.5- Opinion on Gas TaxesFigure 11.5- Opinion on Gas Taxes

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Measuring Public Opinion and Measuring Public Opinion and Political InformationPolitical Information

The Role of Polls in American DemocracyThe Role of Polls in American DemocracyAll politicians use pollsAll politicians use polls

Polls help politicians detect public preferencesPolls help politicians detect public preferences

Measuring Public OpinionMeasuring Public Opinionand The Mediaand The Media

The Role of Polls in American DemocracyThe Role of Polls in American DemocracyPolls may distort election processPolls may distort election process

Predictive Polls (before an election)Predictive Polls (before an election)

Used by media. Causes ‘horserace’ focus.Used by media. Causes ‘horserace’ focus.

Exit PollsExit Polls Used by the media to predict election day Used by the media to predict election day

winnerswinnersMay discourage people from votingMay discourage people from voting

Effects of Public OpinionEffects of Public Opinion

May influence the course May influence the course

of public policy.of public policy.

Some critics argue this Some critics argue this

weakens democracy.weakens democracy.

Creation of bandwagon Creation of bandwagon

and underdog effects.and underdog effects.

Figure 11.4- The Gallup PollFigure 11.4- The Gallup Poll

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Figure 11.7- Daily Tracking PollFigure 11.7- Daily Tracking Poll

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Measuring Public Opinion and Measuring Public Opinion and Political InformationPolitical Information

Polls Reveal Americans’ Political InformationPolls Reveal Americans’ Political Information

Americans don’t know much about politicsAmericans don’t know much about politics

Table 11.2- Political KnowledgeTable 11.2- Political Knowledge

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TAKEOUT APIECEOFPAPER &WRITETHENATION& THEMATCHINGNUMBER

# %

Correct Grade

16 100

15 94

14 88

13 81

12 75

11 69

10 63

9 56

8 50

7 44

6 38

5 31

4 25

3 19

2 13

1 6

0 0

04/19/2304/19/23 AP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTUREAP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTURE 4848

MISTRUST OF GOVERNMENTMISTRUST OF GOVERNMENT

INCREASING SINCE THE 1960’SINCREASING SINCE THE 1960’S

INTERNAL EFFICACYINTERNAL EFFICACY (I make a difference) (I make a difference)

SAME SINCE THE 1950’SSAME SINCE THE 1950’S

EXTERNAL EFFICACYEXTERNAL EFFICACY (The system works) (The system works)

DECLINING SINCE THE 1960’SDECLINING SINCE THE 1960’S

Polls reveal aPolls reveal a“ CREDIBILITY “ CREDIBILITY

GAP ”GAP ”

Measuring Public Opinion and Measuring Public Opinion and Political InformationPolitical Information

Highest

What Americans Value: Political What Americans Value: Political IdeologiesIdeologies

Political IdeologyPolitical Ideology::Coherent set of beliefs about politics and public policy / purposeCoherent set of beliefs about politics and public policy / purpose

Who Are the Liberals and Conservatives?Who Are the Liberals and Conservatives?Predominance of conservative over liberal thinkingPredominance of conservative over liberal thinking

38% conservative38% conservative

24% liberal24% liberal

38% moderate38% moderate

Gender gapGender gap: women tend to be less conservative than men: women tend to be less conservative than men

Ideological variation by religion tooIdeological variation by religion too

What Americans Value: Political What Americans Value: Political IdeologiesIdeologies

Table 11.1- Gender DifferencesTable 11.1- Gender Differences

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How Americans Participate How Americans Participate in Politicsin Politics

Political ParticipationPolitical Participation: all the activities used : all the activities used by citizens to influence the selection of by citizens to influence the selection of political leaders or the policies they pursuepolitical leaders or the policies they pursue

Conventional ParticipationConventional Participation Voting in electionsVoting in elections Contacting elected officialsContacting elected officials Working in campaignsWorking in campaigns Running for officeRunning for office

How Americans Participate How Americans Participate in Politicsin Politics

ProtestProtestAchieve changes through dramatic / unconventional tacticsAchieve changes through dramatic / unconventional tactics

Civil disobedienceCivil disobedienceConscious decision to break a lawConscious decision to break a law

Belief law is immoralBelief law is immoral

Accept law-breaking consequenceAccept law-breaking consequence

What Americans Value: Political What Americans Value: Political IdeologiesIdeologies

How do people think politically?How do people think politically?IdeologuesIdeologues: :

think in ideological termsthink in ideological terms

Group Benefits votersGroup Benefits voters: :

view politics through party or group view politics through party or group label label

Nature of the TimesNature of the Times: : view of politics based on view of politics based on whether times are good whether times are good or bador bad

No issue contentNo issue content: :

vote routinely for party or vote routinely for party or personalitypersonality

Voters' Thought Processes

Group Benefits

42%

Nature of the Times

24%

No I ssue Content

22%

Ideologue12%

Class and ParticipationClass and Participation

Understanding Public Opinion Understanding Public Opinion and Political Actionand Political Action

Many people have no opinion about governmentMany people have no opinion about government

Public opinion is inconsistentPublic opinion is inconsistent

In a Democracy do we get the government we deserve?In a Democracy do we get the government we deserve?

Figure 11.8- Public Opinion on IraqFigure 11.8- Public Opinion on Iraq

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04/19/2304/19/23 AP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTUREAP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTURE 6262

LIBERTYLIBERTY

EQUALITYEQUALITY

DEMOCRACY DEMOCRACY

CIVIC DUTYCIVIC DUTY

INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITYINDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY

IMPORTANT CULTURAL IMPORTANT CULTURAL ELEMENTSELEMENTS

04/19/2304/19/23 AP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTUREAP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTURE 6363

AMERICAN POLITICAL CULTUREAMERICAN POLITICAL CULTURE

UNIQUE AMERICAN QUALITIESUNIQUE AMERICAN QUALITIES

TOCQUEVILLE’STOCQUEVILLE’S

DEMOCRACY IN AMERICADEMOCRACY IN AMERICA

NO ARISTOCRACYNO ARISTOCRACY

WESTWARD MOVEMENTWESTWARD MOVEMENT

NATION OF SMALLNATION OF SMALL

& INDEPENDENT FARMERS& INDEPENDENT FARMERS

04/19/2304/19/23 AP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTUREAP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTURE 6464

Alexis de Alexis de TocquevilleTocqueville

TRAVEL IN THE U.S.TRAVEL IN THE U.S.

IN 1832IN 1832

DEMOCRACYDEMOCRACYIN AMERICAIN AMERICA

PUBLISHED VOL 1PUBLISHED VOL 118351835

PUBLISHED VOL 2PUBLISHED VOL 218401840

04/19/2304/19/23 AP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTUREAP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTURE 6565

SOCIOLOGICAL FACTORSSOCIOLOGICAL FACTORS

PURITAN HERITAGEPURITAN HERITAGE

FOLLOW LAWS, WORK HARDFOLLOW LAWS, WORK HARD

LACK OF CLASS LACK OF CLASS

CONSCIOUSNESSCONSCIOUSNESS

MOST SEEN AS MIDDLE CLASSMOST SEEN AS MIDDLE CLASS

04/19/2304/19/23 AP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTUREAP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTURE 6666

THE CULTURE WARTHE CULTURE WARORTHODOXORTHODOX

GOD’S MORALITY FIXEDGOD’S MORALITY FIXED

MOST IMPORTANTMOST IMPORTANT

PROGRESSIVEPROGRESSIVE

GUIDELINES CHANGEGUIDELINES CHANGE

ACCORDING TO SITUATIONACCORDING TO SITUATION

PERSONAL FREEDOMPERSONAL FREEDOM

MOST IMPORTANTMOST IMPORTANT

Highest

Lowest

04/19/2304/19/23 AP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTUREAP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTURE 6868

ECONOMIC BELIEFSECONOMIC BELIEFSSUPPORT OF FREESUPPORT OF FREE ENTERPRISEENTERPRISE

(CAPITALISM)(CAPITALISM)

……WITH GOV’T REGULATIONWITH GOV’T REGULATION

(SOCIALISM)(SOCIALISM)

EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITYEQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY

04/19/2304/19/23 AP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTUREAP - Ch 4 - US POL CULTURE 6969

WHY DOES AMERICAN WHY DOES AMERICAN DEMOCRACY WORK ?DEMOCRACY WORK ?

CONSENSUS VIEW (LOUIS HARTZ)CONSENSUS VIEW (LOUIS HARTZ)AMERICANS SHARE SAME BASIC AMERICANS SHARE SAME BASIC VALUESVALUES

CONFLICT VIEW (VERNON PARRINGTON)CONFLICT VIEW (VERNON PARRINGTON)DIFFERENT MAJOR VIEWS COMPETEDIFFERENT MAJOR VIEWS COMPETE

(LIB. Vs CONS.)(LIB. Vs CONS.)

WHATWHATSHOULDSHOULD

DETERMINEDETERMINEWHO GETSWHO GETS

INTO AINTO ACOLLEGE ?COLLEGE ?

WHOWHOSHOULDSHOULD

DETERMINEDETERMINEWHO GETSWHO GETS

INTO AINTO ACOLLEGE ?COLLEGE ?

WILMA ??WILMA ?? 3.5 GPA3.5 GPA 25 ACT SCORE25 ACT SCORE 5 AP COURSES5 AP COURSES 10 HONOR COURSES10 HONOR COURSES 2 SPORTS (4 YEARS EACH)2 SPORTS (4 YEARS EACH) 5 CLUBS (3 FOR 4 YEARS, 2 FOR 3 5 CLUBS (3 FOR 4 YEARS, 2 FOR 3

YEARS) YEARS)

ADALAI ??ADALAI ?? 3.1 GPA3.1 GPA 22 ACT SCORE22 ACT SCORE 0 AP COURSES0 AP COURSES 2 HONOR COURSES2 HONOR COURSES 2 SPORTS (2 YEARS EACH)2 SPORTS (2 YEARS EACH) 5 CLUBS (5 FOR 4 YEARS) 5 CLUBS (5 FOR 4 YEARS)

WILMAWILMA ADALAI ADALAI

3.53.5 GPAGPA3.13.1

2525 ACT SCORE ACT SCORE2222

55 AP COURSES AP COURSES 00

10 10 HONOR COURSES HONOR COURSES 22

2 2 SPORTSSPORTS 22

5 5 CLUBSCLUBS 55

WILMAWILMA ADALAI ADALAIW / SCHOOLW / SCHOOL A / SCHOOLA / SCHOOL

3.5/3.83.5/3.8 GPA GPA 3.1/1.53.1/1.5

25/2925/29 ACT SCORE ACT SCORE 22/1222/12

5/155/15 AP COURSES AP COURSES 0/00/0

10/40 10/40 HONOR COURSES HONOR COURSES 2/2 2/2

2/12 2/12 SPORTS SPORTS 2/3* 2/3*

5/35 5/35 CLUBS CLUBS 5/5 5/5* No extra-curricular activities * No extra-curricular activities for 2 years (Levy Failed)for 2 years (Levy Failed)

Legacies Still Get A Staggeringly UnfairCollege Admissions AdvantageMax Nisen Jun. 5, 2013, 3:49 PM

* 45.1% more likely to get in.

* Equivalent to a 160-point swing on an SAT score. 

* There's some evidence that the practice has declined.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/legacy-kids-have-an-admissions-advantage-2013-6#ixzz2fFV5b75b

TEXAS STATE SCHOLARSHIP TEXAS STATE SCHOLARSHIP PLAN (2005PLAN (2005))

TOP 10 % OF CLASSTOP 10 % OF CLASS

FREE TUITIONFREE TUITION

TO STATE SCHOOLS TO STATE SCHOOLS

2008 = 3 BILLS TO CHANGE LAW2008 = 3 BILLS TO CHANGE LAW

UNFAIR TO STUDENTSUNFAIR TO STUDENTS

IN “GOOD” SCHOOLSIN “GOOD” SCHOOLS CHANGING SCHOOLSCHANGING SCHOOLS

DURING SENIOR YEARDURING SENIOR YEAR MORE INFORMATION MORE INFORMATION

THAN CLASS RANK NEEDEDTHAN CLASS RANK NEEDED

OGT INFO…OGT INFO… BEST INDICATOR BEST INDICATOR

OF DISTRICT SUCCESSOF DISTRICT SUCCESS

1- COMMUNITY INCOME1- COMMUNITY INCOME

2- % WITH COLLEGE DEGREES2- % WITH COLLEGE DEGREES

Dayton Daily News Sept 17, 2013

SummarySummary American society is ethnically diverse and American society is ethnically diverse and

changing.changing.

Knowing public opinion is important to a Knowing public opinion is important to a democracy, polling has costs and benefits.democracy, polling has costs and benefits.

Americans know little about politics.Americans know little about politics.

Political participation is generally low.Political participation is generally low.