public opinion landscape - democratic national convention
TRANSCRIPT
Election 2012: A Brief Overview and Analysis
September 5, 2012
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..3
2. Views of Obama..…………………………………………………………….…...6
3. 2012: General Election Preview………………..…………………………16
4. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….…….…18
5. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……23
6. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...26
Slide
3
Political Context
CHALLENGING ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE
• Tougher political, economic, and foreign policy environment
• Post-2010, narrower field of battleground states • New Republican governors in Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Michigan
• Continuing high unemployment • No President has been re-elected since WWII when
unemployment was above 7.5%
Clinton August 1996
Bush August 2004
Obama August 2012
Satisfied 38 44 23
Unsatisfied 57 55 77
State of the Nation
4
Source: Gallup Poll, August 9-12, 2012
Compared to when Barack Obama became president – do you think that the country is better off, worse off, or in about the same place?
27%
42%
31%
Same place
Worse off
Better off
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, August 16-20, 2012
MOST VOTERS HAVE A NEGATIVE PERCEPTION OF THE ECONOMY
5
Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor?
Note: “No opinion” results are not shown. Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, August 22-25, 2012
1%
14%
39% 45%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
Excellent Good Not so Good Poor
POSITIVE 15%
NEGATIVE 84%
6
Obama
AMERICANS DIVIDED OVER OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB PERFORMANCE; WEAKER ON DOMESTIC PRIORITIES, STRONGER ON FOREIGN POLICY
7
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling…?
Source: Gallup Poll, August 27 – Sept 2, 2012
44% 47%
9%
Overall Job Approval Approve Disapprove No opinion
Issue NET APPROVE
NET DISAPPROVE
Terrorism 58% 35% Education 49% 43% Foreign Affairs 48% 45% Immigration 38% 54% Creating jobs 37% 58% The economy 36% 60% The federal budget deficit 30% 64%
Source: Gallup Poll, August 9-12, 2012
68%
60% 57%
52%
44% 39% 37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Eisenhower(1956)
Clinton(1996)
Reagan(1984)
G.W. Bush(2004)
Obama(2012)
G. Bush(1992)
Carter (1980)
8
OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL ABOVE CARTER / AND BUSH SR., BUT BELOW 50%
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in early September of Re-Election Year
Weekly Approval Rating Average
Aug 27 – Sept 2, 2012
9
JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
Presidential Job Approval January March June October
2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% ?
2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50%
1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58%
1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33%
1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58%
1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32%
1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32%
1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59%
1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74%
Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election
President’s in red lost re-election
Obama Averages 45% Job Approval in August
CT
JOB APPROVAL RATING IS 50% OR HIGHER IN 12 STATES AND D.C.
10
OR
AK
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
NH
NH VT
DC MD
DE NJ
RI
MA
January – June 2012
42% and below
Above 50%
42% - 50%
Job Approval
Electoral Votes
Above 50% 175
42%-50% 243 42% and
Below 120
11
MAJORITY FEEL OBAMA’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE ECONOMY. HOWEVER, 45% DON’T THINK HIS POLICIES WILL EVER HELP THE ECONOMY
Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, July 11-16, 2012
Note: “Made economy worse (vol.)” and “DK/NA” results not shown
Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies: 1. They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, OR 2. They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, OR 3. They are not improving the economy and probably never will.
45%
34%
17%
Not improving and never will
Not improved but will in time
Improving economy 51%
AMERICANS STILL BLAME BUSH MORE THAN OBAMA FOR ECONOMY
12
Who do you think is more responsible for the country’s current economic problems – (Barack Obama) or (George W. Bush)?
54% 49%
54%
29% 34% 32%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
Bush
Obama
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, August 22-25, 2012 Note: “Both (vol.),” “Neither (vol.),” and “No opinion” results are not shown.
13
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, August 16-20, 2012
MAJORITY OF VOTERS FEEL OBAMA IS GENERALLY IN THE MAINSTREAM WITH MOST AMERICANS’ THINKING
When it comes to his approaches to issues, would you say that Barack Obama is in the mainstream of most Americans’ thinking, or is out of step with most Americans’ thinking?
AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS 54%
44%
In the Mainstream Out of Step
July-08 In the Mainstream
Out of Step
Barack Obama 60% 29%
COMPARE TO:
Aug-12 In the Mainstream
Out of Step
Mitt Romney 44% 51%
14
Source: Fox News Poll, August 5-7, 2012
FOUR IN TEN VOTERS THINK OBAMA IS TOO LIBERAL
Do you think Barack Obama’s positions on the issues are too liberal, too conservative or about right?
AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS
TOO LIBERAL
41%
TOO CONSERVATIVE
7% ABOUT RIGHT 46%
DON’T KNOW
5%
Mitt Romney
Too liberal 14%
Too conservative 34%
About right 40%
Don’t know 13%
COMPARE TO:
15
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
ROMNEY’S POPULARITY STAYS LOW, OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY
UNFAVORABLE 45.6% FAVORABLE 49.9%
UNFAVORABLE 47.4% FAVORABLE 44.7%
As of September 5, 2012 Before GOP Convention Favorable: 40.7 Unfavorable: 47.2
16
2012 – General Election Preview
16
PRESIDENCY, CONGRESS, GOVERNORSHIPS
17
Republicans Democrats
240** 190***
+50 -
All 435 seats being contested. Democrats need to win 25 seats from the Republicans to gain control of the House.
House:
Senate: Republicans Democrats
47 53*
- +6
33 seats being contested. Republicans need to win 4 seats from the Democrats to gain control of the Senate.
Presidency: Democratic incumbent Barack Obama will be seeking a second term in office versus Mitt Romney, the Republican opponent, seeking to become the 45th president of the United States.
Governor: 11 governorships being contested.
* 51 Democrats + 2 Independents ** 2 seats are vacant (MI-11, KY-4) *** 3 seats are vacant (NJ-10, WA-1, CA-18)
18
Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race
19
AFTER GOP CONVENTION, POLLS SHOW THE RACE IS TIED
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
Sept 5, 2008 %
Obama 46.6
McCain 44.0
Obama +2.6
Sept 5, 2004 %
Bush 49.3
Kerry 43.0
Bush +6.3
A Look Back Four Years Ago Today
Eight Years Ago Today
Source: Real Clear Politics
As of September 5, 2012
OBAMA 46.2%
ROMNEY 46.6%
+0.4
20
GOP CONVENTION EVOKES LUKEWARM REACTION
Source: Gallup Poll
Romney Obama
Pre-convention (Aug 24-27) 47% 46%
Post-convention (Aug 31 – Sep 3) 46% 47%
More likely Less likely No difference / Don’t know
National Adults 40% 38% 22%
Republicans 83% 6% 11%
Independents 36% 33% 30%
Democrats 9% 74% 18%
Does what you saw or read of this week’s Republican convention make you more likely or less likely to vote for Mitt Romney?
21
CANDIDATE SUPPORT TYPICALLY UP FIVE POINTS AFTER CONVENTION
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
Democratic candidate
Post-Dem. Convention
bounce
Republican candidate
Post-Rep. convention
bounce
2012 Obama ??? Romney -1
2008 Obama 4 McCain 6
2004 Kerry -1 G.W. Bush 2
2000 Gore 8 G.W. Bush 8
1996 Clinton 5 Dole 3
1992 Clinton 16 G.H.W. Bush 5
1988 Dukakis 7 G.H.W. Bush 6
1984 Mondale 9 Reagan 4
1980 Carter 10 Reagan 8
1976 Carter 9 Ford 5
1972 McGovern 0 Nixon 7
22
AMERICANS GIVE ROMNEY THE EDGE ON TWO PERSONAL DIMENSIONS AFTER CONVENTION
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to Barack Obama or more to Mitt Romney?
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, August 31 – Sept 2, 2012 Note: “Both (vol.),” “Neither (vol.),” and “No opinion” results are not shown.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
46% 43%
49% 48%
45% 43%
48% 47%
39% 43%
53% 49%
31% 36%
60% 56%
Is a strong and decisive leader
Has an optimistic vision for the
country’s future
Is in touch with the problems facing
middle class Americans today
Is in touch with the problems facing women today
Before GOP Convention
After GOP Convention
Before GOP Convention
After GOP Convention
Before GOP Convention
After GOP Convention
Before GOP Convention
After GOP Convention
Obama Romney
23
Battleground States
24
OR
AK
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
NH
3 12
7
55 6
4 3
6
11 5
9
3
3
5
4
3
4
38
29
6
7
10
6
10
6
8 6 9 16
29
9 15 13
11
20 11
10 16
18 20
8 5
THE ELECTORAL MAP
Electoral Count (as shown):
Romney: 191 Obama: 221 Toss-Up: 126
VT 3
NH 4
RI 4
NJ 14
CT 7
DE 3
MD 10
DC 3
MA 11
Source: Real Clear Politics (as of August 31, 2012)
25
Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of September 5, 2012)
OR
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
NH
Obama: 49% Romney: 46%
(7/24-8/26)
NV
VA
FL
CO
IA MI
OH
NC
OF THE TEN TOSS-UP STATES, OBAMA LEADS OR IS TIED IN ALL BUT ONE, YET LEADS ARE SLIM
(7/31-9/2)
Obama: 48% Romney: 47%
Obama: 45% Romney: 45%
(5/22-8/26)
(8/13-8/21)
Obama: 48% Romney: 47%
(8/13-9/2)
Obama: 46% Romney: 45%
Obama: 47% Romney: 46%
(8/13-8/23)
Romney: 47% Obama: 45%
(8/22-9/2)
Obama: 47% Romney: 47%
(8/13-9/2)
WI
(8/16-9/2)
Obama: 48% Romney: 45%
(6/20-8/12)
Obama: 48% Romney: 45%
26
Battle for Congress
2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH
27
Likely Dem (3) Lean Dem (5) Toss-Up (7) Lean Rep (2) Likely Rep (1) ME* (Open) –
Republican HI (Open) – Democrat
MO (McCaskill) – Democrat
AZ (Open) – Republican
NE (Open) – Democrat
PA (Casey) – Democrat
FL (Nelson) – Democrat
MT (Tester) – Democrat
IN (Open) – Republican
MI (Stabenow) – Democrat
OH (Brown) – Democrat
VA (Open) – Democrat
CT (Open) – Democrat
WI (Open) – Democrat
NM (Open) – Democrat
ND (Open) - Democrat
MA (Brown) – Republican
NV (Heller) – Republican
Source: Roll Call, as of September 5, 2012 *Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if he wins the open Maine seat
Democrats need to win 3 Toss-Up seats to retain control of the Senate if they pick up a seat in ME, while losing a seat in NE.
LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES
28
Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of September 5, 2012)
OR
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
NH
(8/20)
Rehberg : 47% Tester: 43%
MT
Heller: 47% Berkley: 42%
(7/24-8/26)
(8/15-8/21)
Thompson: 51% Baldwin: 43%
(8/22-8/29)
McCaskill: 48% Akin: 41%
Kaine: 46% Allen: 46%
(7/31-8/23)
(6/13-6/25)
King: 53% Summers: 25%
Dill: 8%
Brown: 44%
Warren: 43%
(5/7-8/19)
WI
NV
MO VA
ME
MA
Nelson: 46% Mack: 40
(8/15-9/2)
FL
NM
Heinrich: 49% Wilson: 42%
(7/9-8/21)
ND
(5/3-7/11)
Berg: 49% Heitkamp: 44%
2012 HOUSE OUTLOOK
29
Source: HuffPost, as of September 4, 2012 218 Seats Needed for Majority
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GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.
For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Joel Johnson ([email protected]) or David Cantor ([email protected])