public opinion. what is public opinion? ► “to speak with precision of public opinion is a task...
TRANSCRIPT
What is What is public opinionpublic opinion??►““To speak with precisionTo speak with precision of public of public
opinion is a task not unlike coming to opinion is a task not unlike coming to grips with the Holy Ghostgrips with the Holy Ghost”” –VO Key Jr. –VO Key Jr.
►Attitudes, perceptions, and views Attitudes, perceptions, and views individuals hold about politics and individuals hold about politics and govt.govt.
►Willing to share, Willing to share, common concernscommon concerns►how much goes into making how much goes into making policypolicy??
What makes it so confusing?What makes it so confusing?►Only attracts the attention of someOnly attracts the attention of some►Many times Many times nono majority opinion majority opinion►PluralistPluralist:: often prevails- govt. responds often prevails- govt. responds
to the view of intense minorityto the view of intense minority►ElitistElitist:: other issues that are obscure. other issues that are obscure.
ex: US relations with Madagascar?ex: US relations with Madagascar?►MajorityMajority (mass): (mass): few, broad, all- few, broad, all-
concerning issues- social securityconcerning issues- social security►AttentiveAttentive:: those with an active interest those with an active interest
Ways to express public Ways to express public opinionopinion
►Voting Voting ►Protest demonstrationProtest demonstration►Letter-writingLetter-writing►Television commercialsTelevision commercials►LobbyistsLobbyists►E-mailE-mail►Think of one more!Think of one more!
The debate onThe debate on
►How much should it really play in How much should it really play in public policy?public policy?
►Madison: Madison: popular opinion vs. public popular opinion vs. public o.o.
►““Momentary passions are not govt. Momentary passions are not govt. concern, represent only concern, represent only ““true true interestsinterests””
►Jackson and Progressive movementsJackson and Progressive movements►George Gallup (the George Gallup (the Gallup pollGallup poll): ): anyany
opinion held by citizens should be opinion held by citizens should be taken into accounttaken into account
How informed are the How informed are the people?people?
►KosovoKosovo►JaywalkingJaywalking►The news?The news?
Thinking stick: Are Americans informed enough to make governing decisions? Should there be prerequisites?
Types of Opinions:Types of Opinions:►StableStable:: change very little (death change very little (death
penalty)penalty)►FluidFluid:: change frequently change frequently
(popularity)(popularity)►LatentLatent:: dormant, but may be dormant, but may be
aroused (the draft)aroused (the draft)►IntenseIntense:: (abortion?) (abortion?)►Non-intensive: Non-intensive: ►SalientSalient: : personal importance to personal importance to
some (Brady Bill)some (Brady Bill) CP Skip!
Types of Opinions:Types of Opinions:
►ConsensusConsensus: : shared by 75% people shared by 75% people (balanced budget)(balanced budget)
►PolarizedPolarized: : shared by LESS than shared by LESS than 75% (serious gun control)75% (serious gun control)
Polarized opinion: America should outlaw weapons!
Measuring Public Opinion: Measuring Public Opinion: PollsPolls
►Straw PollsStraw Polls are inaccurate are inaccurate►Elections donElections don’’t tell why t tell why ►Scientific pollsScientific polls are the best! are the best!►Construction: Construction:
- - definition of universedefinition of universe- Accurate selection of sample (1000)Accurate selection of sample (1000)- Writing the questionWriting the question- Selection or means of pollingSelection or means of polling
What might be some problems with What might be some problems with polls?polls?
►Sampling error (3%, Gallup Sampling error (3%, Gallup amazing!)amazing!)
►Probability sampleProbability sample►WordingWording►Election night projections through Election night projections through
““exit pollsexit polls”” Horse-race journalism!
Exit Poll IssuesExit Poll Issues►““Horse RaceHorse Race”” mentality mentality►Pandering to whims of publicPandering to whims of public►Early projection can Early projection can discourage discourage
turnout turnout in the in the WestWest and flawed and flawed data (Florida!)data (Florida!)
Hand-countsIn Florida: 2000
1992: So many polls lead to voter apathy.Clinton was projected way in lead! Perot?