public perception of mars mission economics: separating fact from fiction

Public Perception ofMars Mission Economics:

Separating Fact from Fiction

Brian Enke

SwRI

Boulder, [email protected]

GOALS

● Put our investment in manned spaceflight into proper CONTEXT.

● Provide "Take-Home" points to assist with damage control.

Outline

● Public Perception

● Hypothetical Missions

● NASA Budget

● US Government Budget

● US Economic Activity

● Apollo

ICR Poll for the Associated Press(7/28/2003)

➢ Margin of error: +/- 3%➢ 75% believe the space program is a good investment!➢ Only 49% support sending humans to Mars (vs 42% opp).➢ Implication: Many people believe a manned Mars mission

would not be a good investment, i.e. too expensive.➢ Quote: "We can go there after all the things wrong on Earth

are fixed. I'm totally against any of it. It's a total waste of money we need for our kids, for illnesses, could put somebody's kids through college, could cure so many diseases."

Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)

➢ 800 Americans surveyed randomly, asked 23 questions➢ Margin of Error +/- 3.5%➢ 69% give NASA positive job performance ratings➢ 83% believe a manned space program is important!➢ 54% would not resume the space shuttle program until "the

future of the space program has been re-defined"➢ 59% believe humans will set foot upon Mars within 25 years!

(18% < 10 years)


HOWEVER......

➢ 24% believe the US should end its manned space program altogether


Question 2: What percentage of the federal budget do you think is spent each year on the nation's manned and unmanned space programs?

➢ Less than 1%➢ 1% to 5%➢ 5% to 10%➢ More than 10%➢ Not sure


Question 2: What percentage of the federal budget do you think is spent each year on the nation's manned and unmanned space programs?

➢ Less than 1% 20%➢ 1% to 5% 37%➢ 5% to 10% 19%➢ More than 10% 17%➢ Not sure 8%

(76% would keep funding unchanged or increase it)

"The manned space program is expensive!!"Where does this perception come from?

Politicians??

Media??

Space Community??

Case Study:IS NASA LOST IN SPACE?

TOO MANY LIVES AND DOLLARS HAVE ALREADY BEEN WASTED(John Baer, New York Times editorial, 2/3/2003)

➢ IT'S TIME TO think about pulling the plug.➢ What have 42 years of astronomically expensive manned

space flight shown other than how many times we can circle the Earth?

➢ What's the cost-benefit ratio? What's NASA's annual $15 billion budget brought us?



➢ Remember blowing up spy satellites atop Titan 4 rockets regularly at $1 billion a pop?

➢ Or how about that space station? In '84, NASA said it was $8 billion to build. Today, it's $30 billion and climbing.

➢ That's enough to run Pennsylvania, population 12 million, for a year and a half. Know the population of the space station? Three.



➢ In 1995, then-Sen. Dale Bumpers, D-Ark., tried to stop the space station. The effort, and others since, failed. But Bumpers argued that every dime spent in space is one less for education and "honest-to-God medical research."

➢ I like his point. Now that we're at war and poised for another and sitting stalled in a flat economy, I like it even better.



➢ The national poverty rate, after four straight years of decline, is up to 11.7 percent. There are 32.9 million poor people in America, 6.8 million poor families. Some 40 million Americans don't have health insurance. Last year, the Institute of Medicine said 18,000 working-age adults died prematurely because they didn't have medical insurance.

➢ It's time to think about these things. And ask tough questions. And slip the surly bonds of Congress and smack the face of NASA.

Public Perception:"Manned Spaceflight is Expensive"

The media usually presents accurate information on the "costs" (or risks) of spaceflight missions.

HOWEVER......

The media often fails to put these "investments" (or risks) within their PROPER CONTEXT.



● NASA Budget



● Apollo

Mission Plans: Mars Direct

● 5 - 7 years to develop

● $7 - $30 billion

● $1 - $6 billion / year

● Total useful payload to surface: 53.8 tonnes

Take-Home Points!

Space expenditures are INVESTMENTs, not COSTs.

INVESTMENT PER YEAR is a good metric to use.

TOTAL COST is often misleading, and is harder for the public to relate to.

Mission Plans: NASA MRM

● 7 - 10 years to develop

● $40 - $60 billion

● $4 - $8 billion / year

● Total useful payload to surface: ~153 tonnes

Mission Plans: Moon/NEA/Mars

● 20 years to develop?

● $160 billion?

● $8 billion / year?

● Accomplishes more, but timeframe is probably too long

Mission Plans: 90-Day Report(Battlestar Galactica)

● 30 years to develop

● $450 billion

● $15 billion / year

● Total useful payload to surface: ?? tonnes

scifi.com

Mission Plans: Marvin

● Wait for Earthlings to land

● Disintegrate habitat

● Disintegrate ERV

● Disintegrate Earthlings

● Await next invasion

Potential Budget:Human Exploration Missions

(billions, rough estimates)

Mars Direct: $15 7yrs$2/yr

Mars Reference Mission: $50 10yrs$5/yr

Moon/NEA/Mars (est): $160 ? 20yrs?$8/yr?

Battlestar Galactica: $450 30 yrs$15/yr



● NASA Budget



● Apollo

NASA Budget Question:

What is NASA's 2004 budget?

$150 Billion$ 45 Billion$ 30 Billion$ 15 Billion$ 10 Billion

NASA Budget Answer:

How much will NASA spend in 2004?

$150 Billion$ 45 Billion$ 30 Billion$ 15 Billion <----$ 10 Billion

NASA Budget Question:

What percentage of the 2004 NASA budget is invested in (human) "Space Flight"?

90 %70 %50 %30 %10 %

NASA Budget Answer:

What percentage of the 2004 NASA budget is invested in (human) "Space Flight"?

90 %70 %

------> 50 %30 %10 %

NASA Budget: 2004(proposed, billions) (from www.nasa.gov)

TOTAL OUTLAYS: $15.5100%

Space Science: $4.026%

Earth Science: $1.610%

Biological/Physical Research: $1.0 6%Aeronautics: $1.0

6%Education $0.2

1%

Space Flight: $6.139%

ISS, Ops: $2.1Shuttle: $4.0

Crosscutting Tech (SLI): $1.711%

Take-Home Point!

The current NASA budget for manned spaceflight is less than $8 billion per year.



● NASA Budget



● Apollo

US Government Budget Question:

What is the US Federal budget for 2004?

$ 2200 Billion$ 1700 Billion$ 1000 Billion$ 800 Billion$ 300 Billion

US Government Budget Answer:

How much will the U.S. Government spend in 2004?

$ 2200 Billion <----$ 1700 Billion$ 1000 Billion$ 800 Billion$ 300 Billion

US Government Budget Question:

What percentage of the 2004 U.S. Government budget is invested into NASA Human Space Flight?

Less than 1% (20%)1% to 5% (37%)5% to 10% (19%)More than 10% (17%)Not sure ( 8%)

US Government Budget Answer:

What percentage of the 2004 U.S. Government budget is invested into NASA Human Space Flight?

Less than 1% (20%) <----1% to 5% (37%)5% to 10% (19%)More than 10% (17%)Not sure ( 8%)

Take-Home Point!

The total NASA budget is ~$15 billion dollars, LESS THAN ONE PERCENT of the federal budget.

US Government Budget: 2004(proposed, billions) (from http://w3.access.gpo.gov/usbudget)

TOTAL OUTLAYS: $2229(100%)

Social Security: $ 493 (22%)

Medicare/Medicaid: $ 440 (20%)

Defense: $ 390 (17%)

$ 307 (14%)*Iraq war (2003, est 3/24): $ 75

(3.4%)Unemployment Insurance: $ 40

(1.8%)*Med/Med fraud: $ 26

(1.2%)*Airline bailout (2002): $ 20

(0.9%)NASA budget: $ 15

(0.7%)Missile defense system: $ 9

(0.4%)



Social Security: $ 493 (22%)

Medicare/Medicaid: $ 440 (20%)

Defense: $ 390 (17%)

Budget deficit: $ 307 (14%)

*Iraq war (2003, est 3/24): $ 75(3.4%)

Unemployment Insurance: $ 40(1.8%)

*Med/Med fraud: $ 26(1.2%)

*Airline bailout (2002): $ 20(0.9%)

NASA budget: $ 15(0.7%)

Missile defense system: $ 9(0.4%)



Budget deficit: $ 307 (14%)

NASA budget: $ 15(0.7%)

2004 budget deficit w/o NASA: $ 292(13%)

Take-Home Points!

The US Government operates on DEFICIT / SURPLUS spending.

A "dime saved" is a dime of deficit reduction, not a dime that can be spent elsewhere

Take-Home Points!

If the US Government wants to spend more money on education, welfare, or curing diseases, IT WILL.

Investment in spaceflight is irrelevant to such decisions.

Take-Home Points!

Deficits are paid off over time, possibly by our children and our grandchildren.

These are the same people who will benefit the most from prudent deficit INVESTING into the space program.



● NASA Budget



● Apollo

United States Economy(billions)

1998 world economic consumption (UN): $24000

2003 US Economy forecast (revenue) (US GPO): $10500 (100%)

2003 US Government Budget: $ 2128(20%)

2003 NASA Budget: $ 15 (0.14%)

US Trade deficit, March, 2003 (Commerce Dept): $ 42.9(0.4%)

Microsoft Corp. Earnings(billions) (from http://www.microsoft.com)4th Quarter, 2003 (reported on 7/15/03):

Revenues: $8Income:$3

Fiscal Year 2004 Estimates:

Revenues: $32Income:$13

End-of-year 2002:Total assets:$67.6Cash reserve:$38.7

2003 anticipated special dividend: $10.0

General Motors Corp. Earnings(billions) (from http://www.gm.com)

1st Quarter, 2003 (reported on 4/15/03):

Revenues: $49.4Net Income: $1.5Cash reserve: $20

Fiscal Year 2002 Earnings:

Revenues: $177.3Net Income: $3.9Cash generated: $8

Miscellaneous Figures(billions)2002 State Farm "Administrative Fees" (State Farm): $ 7.0

Yearly 1990's golf course construction (USPGA): $ 9.5

Average assets of 10 random investmentmanagement firms (Pacific Life): $ 390.7

Yearly migrant remittances to Philippines (gov): $ 7.0

Yearly Europe/US ice cream purchases (UN,USDA): $ 31.0

2002 US alcoholic beverages (www.usda.com): $ 114.0

Yearly artwork sold worldwide (art-exchange.com): $ ~100.0

US yearly cost of spam e-mail (Nucleus Research, 7 min/day): $ ~87.0



● NASA Budget



● Apollo

Questions to Ponder:

What if the United States explored Mars like we explored the Moon in the 1960's?

How much would the Apollo investment be, today?

Comparing NASA... Then and Now(billions, unadjusted)

Comparing NASA... Then and Now(billions, unadjusted)

● Height: 1966

– GDP: $752.7– US: $134.5 (18%)– NASA: $4.5 (0.6%)– Apollo: $3.0 (0.4%)

● Decline: 1970

– GDP: $1009.4– US: $195.6 (19%)– NASA: $3.1 (0.3%)– Apollo: $1.7 (0.2%)

* Note: Current NASA Budget = 0.14% of 2003 US GDP.* Note: 0.4% of 2003 US GDP = $42 billion.

Brian's Wishful Thinking:

What if the

United States invested

$42 Billion Dollars

on the Human

Exploration of Mars,

EACH YEAR???

Take-Home Points!● Use INVESTMENT PER YEAR.

● Budget for manned spaceflight is less than $8 billion / year.

● Total NASA budget is 0.7% of the US budget.

● Deficit/surplus spending isolates the cost of spaceflight from other budget costs.

● To reach Mars, we only need 1/10 ice creams, or 1/50 beers!

public perception of mars mission economics: separating fact from fiction

Documents

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